# Ponder this while we lick our chops over a potential top 5 pick



## TomBoerwinkle#1 (Jul 31, 2002)

Top 10 Worst Number 5 Picks in the Past 25 Years



> One thing the last 25 NBA Drafts have taught us is that there's not much middle ground when it comes to the No. 5 pick. On the one hand, the spot has yielded future Hall of Famers Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen and Mitch Richmond, as well as present-day superstars Kevin Garnett, Vince Carter, Ray Allen and Dwyane Wade. And then there are past 5'ers like Jonathan Bender, who missed badly. Bender's not the only one to break. Here are 10 busts picked fifth in the NBA Draft from the last 25 years.
> 
> 1) Danny Vranes, 1981
> Vranes isn't a guy NBA fans remember these days, and believe me, Danny ain't complaining. A steady college scorer, Seattle opted for a little Vranes love instead of future stars like Vranes' Utah teammate Tom Chambers, Orlando Woolridge, Rolando Blackman, Kelly Tripuka and Larry Nance. Vranes love? That's 5.1 points and 3.9 rebounds in 510 games, as well as a lingering burning sensation in the temples. Both Danny and Slavko Vranes deny any familial connections -- we're not convinced.
> ...


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

Great. Just the pick-me-up I need this morning. Got any hot pokers lying around, Tom? Maybe some bamboo to shove under my fingernails?

I've got a dog you can kick.


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## kukoc4ever (Nov 20, 2002)

This is why the value of our Knicks pick needs to be discounted appropriately.

It needs to be discounted by the variability of production you get from these players and for the years it can take for a rookie to become productive.


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## chifaninca (May 28, 2002)

Well, I'd rather have the NY pick than have given it away. Nothing is a sure thing. Trade for a superstar and watch him get injured is no better result. 

It's all a crap space and draft guessing world.


Beter to have a chance, than not have a chance.


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## TomBoerwinkle#1 (Jul 31, 2002)

chifaninca said:


> Well, I'd rather have the NY pick than have given it away. Nothing is a sure thing. Trade for a superstar and watch him get injured is no better result.
> 
> It's all a crap space and draft guessing world.
> 
> ...



When life hands you lemons, make lemonade. Add vodka and repeat as necessary.


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## bullsville (Jan 23, 2005)

Nah, I say let's trade the Knicks' pick for a pair of second-rounders, who needs the pressure of trying to make a good pick that high in the draft, after all the player could possibly be a bust.

After all, Manu and Arenas and Shard were all 2nd-round picks, and Ben Wallace wasn't even drafted, so screw a top-5 pick. It's just not worth the trouble.


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## bullsville (Jan 23, 2005)

Only about half of this year's All-Stars were drafted 5th or lower, so why even bother?

And personally, I'm hoping like hell that the Knicks are much improved next season, we certainly don't need to be worrying about possibly having to draft another huge bust in next summer's lottery, do we?


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## Sir Patchwork (Jan 12, 2005)

chifaninca said:


> Beter to have a chance, than not have a chance.


Yeah, and just look at the amazing players picked at number 5. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Dwyane Wade, Vince Carter, Jason Richardson. That's just in the past 10 years. It's not a matter of having nobody to choose at that pick, if bad players are chosen, it's because teams made a mistake. For example, in Bender's case, there was a load of good players selected right after him. Wally Szczerbiak, Richard Hamilton, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Corey Maggette and Ron Artest were all selected between 6 and 16.


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## windy_bull (Sep 28, 2005)

nice list ..... but this list tells you as much as any list of top 5 draft picks that became superstars ...

let me do one

1. michael jordan
2. larry bird 
3. magic johnson 
3. tim duncan
4. hakeem olajuwon
5. lebron james
.
.
.
.

ok .. i am already tired ;-)

so does this list tell us something about the probability to find a stud with our pick ?
obviously not.
so what the issue with this list ???? what is the information ???? why do they forget jay williams ???
etc.etc.etc.

anyway it was a nice read ... so thanks for sharing ....... ;-)


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## Sir Patchwork (Jan 12, 2005)

windy_bull said:


> so what the issue with this list ???? what is the information ???? why do they forget jay williams ???


I thought like you at first, but I'm sure you, like me, missed the part where it said the actual #5 pick, not a top 5 pick.


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## windy_bull (Sep 28, 2005)

Sir Patchwork said:


> I thought like you at first, but I'm sure you, like me, missed the part where it said the actual #5 pick, not a top 5 pick.


oops .... :boohoo: :boohoo: :boohoo: 

well in this case my complaint goes to Tom for his headline ... ;-)

Ponder this while we lick our chops over a potential top 5 pick

;-)


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

The real Tom Boerwinkle had the shooting touch of a guy with two left hands (see Kenny Walker).


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

windy_bull said:


> nice list ..... but this list tells you as much as any list of top 5 draft picks that became superstars ...
> 
> let me do one
> 
> ...


All those guys (except Jordan) were can't miss #1 picks that any team would have traded a huge amount for (at the time).


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## bullsville (Jan 23, 2005)

Actually, Bird was taken #6 after his Junior year, but the Celtics had to wait a season before he could play for them.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

bullsville said:


> Actually, Bird was taken #6 after his Junior year, but the Celtics had to wait a season before he could play for them.


That was a gamble on the Celts' part. If he chose not to sign with them, he'd have gone back in the draft and become the surefire #1.


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## windy_bull (Sep 28, 2005)

DaBullz said:


> All those guys (except Jordan) were can't miss #1 picks that any team would have traded a huge amount for (at the time).


sure ... but that is not what I wanted to say ... basically I wanted to say: Forget all lists .... ;-)

a top 5 pick is a better option ( statistically ) to find a stud than no top 5 pick, thats all ...


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

windy_bull said:


> sure ... but that is not what I wanted to say ... basically I wanted to say: Forget all lists .... ;-)
> 
> a top 5 pick is a better option ( statistically ) to find a stud than no top 5 pick, thats all ...


You never know... maybe someone will offer us Elton Brand for the pick.


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## windy_bull (Sep 28, 2005)

Mikedc said:


> You never know... maybe someone will offer us Elton Brand for the pick.


you think the clippers are about to hire Jerry Krause as their new GM ???
hey ... that would be fun ;-)

:banana: :banana: :banana:


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## bullsville (Jan 23, 2005)

Yeah, that's just what we need, another undersized PF.


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## BigBillyBob (May 30, 2002)

man i was a hugh isiah rider fan in the day. I have no worries about pax making our draft pics. Seems to know how to make diamonds out fof coal. He will get us something good.


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## GB (Jun 11, 2002)

Trends aside, Paxson seems to have a nose for the gold in the trash heap. He realizes he whiffed by sitting aside and waiting for Wade to fall to him. I think he'll be a more aggressive aquirer this off-season.

Is "aquirer" a word? In english?


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

GB said:


> Is "aquirer" a word? In english?


Yes.


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## TomBoerwinkle#1 (Jul 31, 2002)

except it is spelled acquirer


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

ONE more win by the cats and we have the NUMBER 1 PICK!


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## Hustle (Dec 17, 2003)

2001
_1. Washington Kwame Brown 6-11 240 PF Glynn Acad. HSSr._ 
2. LA Clippers Tyson Chandler 7-0 220 SF/PF Dominguez HSSr. 
*3. x-Memphis Pau Gasol 7-1 220 SF FC Barcelona (Spain) * 
4. Chicago Eddy Curry 6-11 300 C Thornwood HSSr. 
5. Golden State Jason Richardson 6-6 220 SG Michigan St. So. 
10. Boston Joe Johnson 6-9 225 SF Arkansas So. 
*28. San Antonio Tony Parker 6-1 180 PG (France) 1982* 

2002
*1. Houston Yao Ming 7-6 295 C Shanghai (China) 1980* 
2. Chicago Jay Williams 6-2 195 PG Duke Jr. 
_3. Golden State Mike Dunleavy 6-9 220 SF Duke Jr_. 
4. Memphis Drew Gooden 6-10 230 PF Kansas Jr. 
_5. Denver Nickoloz Tskitishvili 7-0 220 SF/PF (Georgia) 1983_
*9. Phoenix Amare Stoudemire 6-10 240 PF HSSr.*
23. Detroit Tayshaun Prince 6-9 215 SF Kentucky Sr.

2003
*1. Cleveland Lebron James 6-8 245 PG/SG Akron OH HSSr. * 
_2. Detroit Darko Milicic 7-1 253 PF (Serbia-Montenegro) 1985_ 
*3. Denver Carmelo Anthony 6-7 234 SF Syracuse Fr. 
4. Toronto Chris Bosh 6-11 210 PF Georgia Tech Fr. 
5. Miami Dwyane Wade 6-5 212 SG Marquette Jr. *
7. Chicago Kirk Hinrich 6-4 190 PG Kansas Sr.
29. Dallas Josh Howard 6-6 203 SG/SF Wake Forest

2004
*1. Orlando Dwight Howard 6-10 240 PF GA HSSr.* 
2. Charlotte Emeka Okafor 6-10 257 PF/C UConn Jr. 
3. Chicago Ben Gordon 6-2 192 PG UConn Jr. 
4. LA Clippers Shaun Livingston 6-7 186 PG IL HSSr. 
5. Dallas Devin Harris 6-3 170 PG Wisconsin Jr.
7. Chicago Luol Deng 6-8 220 SF Duke Fr.
9. Philadelphia Andre Iguodala 6-7 217 SG/SF Ariz. So.
31. Chicago Chris Duhon
Free Agent Rookie Andre Nocioni

2005
1. Milwaukee Andrew Bogut 7-0 251 C Utah So. 
2. Atlanta Marvin Williams 6-8 228 SF UNC Fr. 
3. Utah Deron Williams 6-3 202 PG Illinois Jr. 
*4. NewOrleans Chris Paul 6-1 178 PG Wake Forest So. *
5. Charlotte Raymond Felton 6-1 200 PG UNC Jr.
8. New York Channing Frye 6-11 244 C Arizona Sr.
7. Toronto Charlie Villanueva 6-10 237 PF Conn So.


Star players in bold. Top picks are nice but we also need the right player.

Its all on Pax. So far so good, in my opinion he has picked the best player for every pick he has made. You could argue Iggy is better than Ben and Luol or that Luol is better than Ben. I like both of our guys over Iggy, though he would be nice to have as well.


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## lougehrig (Mar 1, 2005)

Hustle said:


> 2001
> _1. Washington Kwame Brown 6-11 240 PF Glynn Acad. HSSr._
> 2. LA Clippers Tyson Chandler 7-0 220 SF/PF Dominguez HSSr.
> *3. x-Memphis Pau Gasol 7-1 220 SF FC Barcelona (Spain) *
> ...


Why is Chris Paul and Dwight Howard bold and Ben Gordon not?


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## lougehrig (Mar 1, 2005)

Mikedc said:


> You never know... maybe someone will offer us Elton Brand for the pick.


Pass.


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## kukoc4ever (Nov 20, 2002)

lougehrig said:


> Why is Chris Paul and Dwight Howard bold and Ben Gordon not?


Because they are both much better than Gordon?

Both those guys are studs already, IMO. Gordon is not at that level yet.


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## Hustle (Dec 17, 2003)

kukoc4ever said:


> Because they are both much better than Gordon?
> 
> Both those guys are studs already, IMO. Gordon is not at that level yet.


 Yeah, J-Rich is right there with Ben also.


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

Ponder this while licking your chops over a potential top 5 pick :

The current NBA all stars and their draft place :
Billips #3
Bosh #4
Carter #5
Hamilton #7
Iverson #1
James #1
J O'Neil #17
S O'Neil #1
Pierce #10
Wade #5
B Wallace UD
R Wallace #4

R Allen #5
Brand #1
Bryant #13
Duncan #1
Garnett #5
Gasgol #3
Marion #9
McGrady #9
Ming #1
Nash #15
Nowitzki #9
Parker #28

Take home messages : 
1. The chances of drafting an NBA star are very small if you don't have a top 10 choice.
Only 5/24 of the allstars (<20%) were not top 10 picks.

2. Most NBA all-stars (14/24) were top 5 draft picks.

Of course that doesn't mean that a top 5 pick is necessarily going to become an all-star. One only has to look at current and recently departed Bulls to verify that. 

Still, weak draft or no weak draft, a top 5 pick is very much worth licking chops over if someone other than Krause is making it.


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## ztect (Jun 12, 2002)

TomBoerwinkle#1 said:


> Top 10 Worst Number 5 Picks in the Past 25 Years


Darko is going to end up topping that list especially considering the draft class he was in.

#1 picks like Joe Smith, Kandiman, & Pervis Ellison should also be up near the top 10, if not in the top 15.


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## RagingBulls316 (Feb 15, 2004)

The ROY said:


> ONE more win by the cats and we have the NUMBER 1 PICK!


I think your forgetting the lottery portion. Got to win that before we have the #1 pick, no matter how bad the Knicks are.


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

RagingBulls316 said:


> I think your forgetting the lottery portion. Got to win that before we have the #1 pick, no matter how bad the Knicks are.


yeah, i know..but still, it HELPS!


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## lougehrig (Mar 1, 2005)

kukoc4ever said:


> Because they are both much better than Gordon?
> 
> Both those guys are studs already, IMO. Gordon is not at that level yet.


Believe me Howard and Paul will be stars in this league. Just not at that level yet. They are putting up good numbers, but not elite level (13rpg is awesome, but 16ppg is average). Gordon has average 20ppg as a starter shooting 45% fg and 43% 3P. Paul is at 16ppg, 43%FG, 7.7 apg. That isn't elite level just yet. No reason why Gordon shouldn't be in that group. He can easily be a 25ppg player.


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## kukoc4ever (Nov 20, 2002)

lougehrig said:


> Believe me Howard and Paul will be stars in this league. Just not at that level yet. They are putting up good numbers, but not elite level (13rpg is awesome, but 16ppg is average). Gordon has average 20ppg as a starter shooting 45% fg and 43% 3P. Paul is at 16ppg, 43%FG, 7.7 apg. That isn't elite level just yet. No reason why Gordon shouldn't be in that group. He can easily be a 25ppg player.


Paul is already a star in this league, with the way he's playing. And he's done it consistently. Paul is one of the best assist-ratio players in the league, can score more efficiently than Gordon and can lead a team to victory. He's taken a crap team, as a rookie, and is turning them into a solid squad. Gordon had a nice week, but he's not a leader. He can't take a team on his back for an entire game, much less night in night out, IMO. Paul is one of the top 25 players in this league right now, IMO. We're talking about an elite level PG that can also fill it up, and has been doing it consistently as a rookie. Not even close to Gordon, IMO, who is an undersized SG that goes on hot shooting streaks. Just my opinion, so we'll have to disagree I guess.

Dwight Howard is as good a rebounder as Ben Wallace and has more skills in terms of scoring the basketball. And how old is he, 20?

Gordon is not an elite player in this league in any aspect of the game, IMO.


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## yodurk (Sep 4, 2002)

kukoc4ever said:


> Paul is already a star in this league, with the way he's playing. And he's done it consistently. Paul is one of the best assist-ratio players in the league, can score more efficiently than Gordon and can lead a team to victory. He's taken a crap team, as a rookie, and is turning them into a solid squad. Gordon had a nice week, but he's not a leader. He can't take a team on his back for an entire game, much less night in night out, IMO. Paul is one of the top 25 players in this league right now, IMO. We're talking about an elite level PG that can also fill it up, and has been doing it consistently as a rookie. Not even close to Gordon, IMO, who is an undersized SG that goes on hot shooting streaks. Just my opinion, so we'll have to disagree I guess.
> 
> Dwight Howard is as good a rebounder as Ben Wallace and has more skills in terms of scoring the basketball. And how old is he, 20?
> 
> Gordon is not an elite player in this league in any aspect of the game, IMO.


I agree about Paul and Howard. Chris Paul basically takes all the best qualities from the Bulls' 3 small guards (Ben, Duhon, Kirk) and molds them into one outstanding player. The term "untouchable" gets thrown around alot, but I guarentee he's as untouchable as it gets right now (unless he were traded for another "untouchable" like Dwight Howard).

With Ben Gordon though, I would say that he's "elite" as a shooter, if there is such a category. His shot is so automatic sometimes that it's hard to imagine him not shooting 40% beyond the arc for the rest of his career, ala Ray Allen, Peja, etc.


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## The MAMBA (Jan 6, 2006)

What about "Baby Jordan" aka Harold Miner.


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