# How much $ is Du gonna want?



## HuejMinitZ (Dec 28, 2004)

Won't he have to be resigned at the end of the season? If I have my facts right on second round picks some coin needs to be tossed his way if we want his services beyond this season.


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## giusd (Apr 17, 2003)

Dont get me wrong because i live Duhan's game but seriously the league is stacked with PG's and while he plays great D and runs the team well he can't shoot and is on the small side. He will sign for the veteran exemption and that is it and his minutes will be much decreased next year. And my guess is next year KH will be playing more PG as gordon's minutes go up and we sign a FA SG or dent gets some minutes at SG.

david


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## PD (Sep 10, 2004)

giusd said:


> Dont get me wrong because i live Duhan's game but seriously the league is stacked with PG's and while he plays great D and runs the team well he can't shoot and is on the small side. He will sign for the veteran exemption and that is it and his minutes will be much decreased next year. And my guess is next year KH will be playing more PG as gordon's minutes go up and we sign a FA SG or dent gets some minutes at SG.
> 
> david


I think we have eliminated that plan. Duhon/Gordon/Hinrich combo is working. Likely, Paxson will look for a big man instead. Once you have Deng back, he can take some SG minutes with Noce at SF. Likely, Paxson will target a replacement for Davis or just a big man.


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## rosenthall (Aug 1, 2002)

It may have been realistic to expect to sign Duhon for the LLE, but I think it's doubtful right now. I think a three year, 10 million dollar contract should just about do it. It may take more years as well. If Trenton Hassell can get 6 years and 27 million, it's not unrealistic to think that Duhon could get a similar offer. I would think PG starved teams like Houston and Miami who already have stars and just need players to put in around them would have a strong interest in pursuing him. And it would only take 1 offer, and as long as it isn't outrageous, I think he's important enough to the team that we would need to match it.


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## HuejMinitZ (Dec 28, 2004)

Actually, my thought behind the question was mainly with regard to how Duhon's increasing value (which I think at this point is unquestionable) will effect our plans for resigning everyone in the future - Curry and Chandler this summer, and then down the road Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, etc. After all, you can't pay everybody and I think a second round pick emerging as a legitimate player in the league was probably not budgeted for when we were thinking about our salary cap situation.


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## Thorgal (Feb 1, 2003)

rosenthall said:


> PG starved teams like Houston and Miami who already have stars and just need players to put in around them would have a strong interest in pursuing him.


Neither Houston nor Miami needs Duhon IMO.

Rockets already have 3 small guards in Sura, James & Wesley

Heat have Wade, D. Jones & Dooling

Furthermore both Houston & Miami needs a shooter more than a distributor and as much as Duhon has improved his shooting, it's nowhere near James', Wesley's or D. Jones'. 

With Sura and Wade being better all-around players, only player from that group which Duhon would be an upgrade on is Keyon Dooling. And IMO Heat will be looking for a replacement for Eddie Jones than an back-up PG like Duhon.

In fact I don't see any team wanting Duhon badly.

Teams like Hawks, Bobcats or Jazz would like him I guess, but all of them have high lotto picks for guys like: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton or Jarret Jack.

76ers might want him if they decide to switch Iverson back to SG

Suns might want him for 15mins backing up Nash

And finally Cleveland - from all these team I've mentioned I think Cavs would be the one that want him the most.

But still IMO 3-4 deal starting at 3 would keep him with us.


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## PD (Sep 10, 2004)

HuejMinitZ said:


> Actually, my thought behind the question was mainly with regard to how Duhon's increasing value (which I think at this point is unquestionable) will effect our plans for resigning everyone in the future - Curry and Chandler this summer, and then down the road Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, etc. After all, you can't pay everybody and I think a second round pick emerging as a legitimate player in the league was probably not budgeted for when we were thinking about our salary cap situation.


Agree but Duhon won't demand the MAX, $50M, or even $40M so i don't think it will affect the plan that much. Role players are needed on any team so the plan must have included role players - Duhon happens to be one of those players. 
With the emergence of Duhon, guys like Pargo and to an extent the BIG O will take a hit. Curry and Chandler are locked to be back. Hopefully, Reindolf keeps his promises to pay a winning team.


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## bullet (Jul 1, 2003)

I think it'd take about 8-9 mil per 3 years.

Hawks , Cats , Cavs (McCinis out) , Lakers and Jazz all might be interested.

The first 3 are also under the cap.


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## Dan Rosenbaum (Jun 3, 2002)

It is really interesting hearing what folks are saying about Duhon, because right now I do not think there is a big difference in the effectiveness of Duhon, Gordon, and Hinrich. Each plays a different role, but their roles are all very important.

And I think Duhon has the potential to get much better. If he improves his outside shot, he becomes one of the top point guards in the league. He appears to be THAT good of a defender.

But I think this all feeds into my longheld theory that teams just do not pay for the little things that help their teams win. So a player like Duhon, who in my opinion is much more valuable than Curry, is likely to get less in free agency than Curry. In fact, I would imagine he will get a lot less.

Personally, I would consider it a bigger loss if the Bulls lost Duhon than if they lost Curry, especially once I consider how much it is likely to take to sign both of them.


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## PD (Sep 10, 2004)

bullet said:


> I think it'd take about 8-9 mil per 3 years.
> 
> Hawks , Cats , Cavs (McCinis out) , Lakers and Jazz all might be interested.
> 
> The first 3 are also under the cap.


If someone is crazy enough to offer him $5M/yr, let them be. We shoudl not match it. Duhon is worth $3M max. So 8-9M/3yrs sounds good. I would even go $25M/6 yrs. That sounds reasonable for both sides.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> It is really interesting hearing what folks are saying about Duhon, because right now I do not think there is a big difference in the effectiveness of Duhon, Gordon, and Hinrich. Each plays a different role, but their roles are all very important.
> 
> And I think Duhon has the potential to get much better. If he improves his outside shot, he becomes one of the top point guards in the league. He appears to be THAT good of a defender.
> 
> ...


Now thats some bold stuff. I'm not real big on Curry either, but even I would be willing to sacrifice Duhon over him based on team needs alone. 

That being said, I think Du is going to command a lot more than the vet exception. In my opinion, and this is pretty specific and might be a pretty big stretch, I believe the re-signing of Duhon may very well depent on how the lotto balls bounce for Atlanta.

I think Bogut is a no-brainer for Atlanta. They desparately need a big. So if he's there, Atlanta will take him instead of guys like Deron Williams and Chris Paul. If that plays out, and I'm Atlanta, I'm looking directly at Duhon with a nice chunk of my free agent money. He is exactly the type of point guard a young team like the Hawks needs to set the tone on both ends and distribute.

Close second in the "teams threatening to overpay for Duhon" race? The Lakers.

I don't want it to happen, but I continue to be of the belief that Duhon is not on the Bulls next year. I think a lot of us Bulls fans are underrating the number of teams that are going to come after Du. I may be wrong, but I believe a dramatic shift in the style of point guard play is coming in the NBA. I see teams looking to go back to more traditional ideas of a point guard's role in the offense and in spearheading the defense.


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## HuejMinitZ (Dec 28, 2004)

I actually agree with Rosenbaum here. I'm not that much of a stats guy - I base my opinion of players largely by what I see on the court - so I don't have the numbers necessarily to back my case up but I think Du is one severely underrated guard.

Few points here:

1. Don't get it twisted - he can shoot. Like I said, me and math don't mix so I can't fire any stats off detractors, but I really believe Duhon is a good shooter who struggled a little early with confidence and trying to find his role on the club. I've watched regularly, and it looks like he has really begun to gain some confidence in his abilities on the pro level. Now, he'll take the three point shot and shoot it like he wants to take the shot. I bet he's increased his percentage as the season has progressed. One of his strongest attributes coming to Duke if I remember correctly was his shot - shooters don't lose their ability to shoot, it's just a matter of self-confidence.

2. Don't underestimate basketball IQ - One of the things I hate hate HATE about todays game is that the highlight culture glosses over this attribute BIG TIME. As the flashy handles and the 360 dunks are glorified, fundamentally sound players are glossed over and largely forgotten by the majority of fans. I think it's sort of misunderstood, the label Pax gets of "drafting players from winning programs". That's correct, but also what Pax does a great job of is just picking up players who are basketball players - maybe not stunning athletes, but basketball players. Duhon is a basketball player (and by the way, not too shabby athlete).

3. Michael Redd. The kid has that 2nd rounder chip on his shoulder that's as big as those two diamond stubs he wears now (evidence of increasing self-confidence).

You know, if kind of worries me but I also agree with Rosenbaum that I'm beginning to believe that Duhon is more indispensable to our club than Curry. In fact, as I'm watching the Bulls play now, it kind of worries me that I'm beginning to question Eddy's importance period. I mean, don't get me wrong, I agree with Coach Skiles that our team is better with Eddy Curry. What I'm talking about is when thinking in terms of mula - bread - dough - coin - bank. The issue of Eddy's contract was always the elephant in the middle of the room, but now that we're making this run, this glorious run and players like Kirk, Ben, Tyson, Noce, and Du are emerging the elephant only gets bigger.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

Duhon is SOOOOOOO replacable compared to Curry......

Just last year Damon Jones, Maurice Williams, Mike James, Bob Sura and other servicable PGs changed hands for less than MLE.

What servicable centers did? Any?


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> It is really interesting hearing what folks are saying about Duhon, because right now I do not think there is a big difference in the effectiveness of Duhon, Gordon, and Hinrich. Each plays a different role, but their roles are all very important.
> 
> And I think Duhon has the potential to get much better. If he improves his outside shot, he becomes one of the top point guards in the league. He appears to be THAT good of a defender.
> 
> ...


If Duhon is offered MLE + $1, can we re-sign him?


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> If Duhon is offered MLE + $1, can we re-sign him?


The question isn't whether he is offered, but if he signs it. If he does, we can't resign him. 

But seems like Duhon would ask Pax to match any offer BEFORE he signs it.


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## Pay Ton (Apr 18, 2003)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> And I think Duhon has the potential to get much better. If he improves his outside shot, he becomes one of the top point guards in the league. He appears to be THAT good of a defender.


Agreed.

I think Du can be one hell of a steal. Way more than he already is.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> It is really interesting hearing what folks are saying about Duhon, because right now I do not think there is a big difference in the effectiveness of Duhon, Gordon, and Hinrich. Each plays a different role, but their roles are all very important.
> 
> And I think Duhon has the potential to get much better. If he improves his outside shot, he becomes one of the top point guards in the league. He appears to be THAT good of a defender.


I completely agree with this assessment.



> But I think this all feeds into my longheld theory that teams just do not pay for the little things that help their teams win. So a player like Duhon, who in my opinion is much more valuable than Curry, is likely to get less in free agency than Curry. In fact, I would imagine he will get a lot less.


Simple supply and demand negates your theory, Dan. I agree with all of your statistical valuation, and am a huge supporter of the work you do.

However, a theory such as yours can not be valid until the supply of quality big men equals that of quality small men. It is a fact that skilled big men are rare in this league. Couple this with the fact that you need four quality big men (PF/C) vs. 2 quality small men (PGs), and this is why teams will pay up for size.

Since a limit is set with the CBA, it is natural that the allocation of assets goes towards big men, even though they might not be nearly as deserving as small men from a valuation aspect.



> Personally, I would consider it a bigger loss if the Bulls lost Duhon than if they lost Curry, especially once I consider how much it is likely to take to sign both of them.


A couple of things you negate to mention with this statement. The first is productivity lost vs. productivity gained. If we lose Curry, there are few guys out there that we could replace him with to replace the hole. There are a number of men who we could replace Duhon with and be as productive. There are a lot of 6-footers out there not even in the league that would net a positive efficiency. Supply and demand again.

The other thing you omit is the fact that Curry has at least an equal (if not greater) chance at improving as much as Duhon. Curry is by no means a polished player. Paying up for potential, while not ideal in a perfect economy, has to exist else you will always be left a step behind.

That all said, I completely agree with the theory you are trying to point out from a pure valuation measure. I am sure that nothing I am saying are things you have not thought of either. You have provided a lot of valuable insight and information to the boards, and a lot of people take what you say as truth (a true commendment to your work, for sure). However, I feel I need to point these things out so that others not as statistically inclined may see what you are getting at as well.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

I really can't buy Duhon as a top PG.

A top PG can create for himself and others. Duhon is pretty limited in this regard to guys like Wade or even a guy like Hinrich.


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## Da Grinch (Aug 17, 2002)

i say as I did a while ago duhon's value is about 3 yrs. 12 mil. and i think thats conservative, he cant score but he is at the moment a fringe starter/top 6th man type ...a status i expect to change to an avg. starter next season 

avg. nba salary 5 mil. a year ...i wonder what people think of him when they say he's worth the vet min.

basically it says to me they dont value him very much at all.


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## jnrjr79 (Apr 18, 2003)

DaBullz said:


> If Duhon is offered MLE + $1, can we re-sign him?



The better question is, if Duhon is offered the MLE + $1, _should_ we resign him.

Even if it were somehow possible to do so, I would say that committing that much money to Duhon would be a mistake.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

If his shot regresses a bit, then he is a 10th man. This seems more likely to me than Duhon as a borderline All-Star in the league.

He is going to be competing with guys like Earl Watson and Antonio Daniels for money.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see Pax having to break the bank for this guy.


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## Dan Rosenbaum (Jun 3, 2002)

Rhyder, the flaw in the argument that good big men are more scarce is the fact that Eddy Curry is not yet a good big man. This season Curry is more than replaced by Harrington. If I had to choose between Harrington or Curry being out for the playoffs and all I cared about was winning this year, I would much rather have Curry sitting out.

What Duhon is doing as a rookie is remarkable. Rookies just do not play defense the way he does and have the effect on a team like he does. Assumig the normal improvement that rookies typically experience, Duhon is likely to become a pretty good player. Curry, on the other hand, is starting to get to the point where he needs way above average improvement for someone of his age in order to be as effective as Duhon is likely to become.

Most of the comparisons that folks are making to Duhon are ignoring what he does on the defensive end. They look at the offensive end and can find half a dozen cheap point guards who can do what he does on the offensive end. The single biggest reason the Bulls are a better defensive team than last season is that they are defending the point guard position much, much better. And Duhon is the major reason why. Part of that improvement is because of Crawford (although Crawford's defense was not as bad as many made it out to be), but Duhon also is a much better defender of point guards than is Hinrich. And with Hinrich being a pretty good defender of SGs (even SGs with size), this really shores up the Bulls' defense relative to last season. Other than Earl Watson, I am not sure who else folks were mentioning plays defense like Duhon.

But I agree that Duhon probably won't get paid much. But that IMO is a mistake by much of the league. The relative scarcity of good big men is not a reason to spend big money on a questionable big man. That strategy has doomed many a team over the years. While I watch a Seattle team blowing out Sacramento, I am reminded how a James/Fortson/Collison/Evans combination of big men has been quite effective for the Sonics this season. A lot of times there is very little dropoff in effectiveness in paying big bucks for a questionable talent versus being smart and finding a big man at a bargain price.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> Rhyder, the flaw in the argument that good big men are more scarce is the fact that Eddy Curry is not yet a good big man. This season Curry is more than replaced by Harrington. If I had to choose between Harrington or Curry being out for the playoffs and all I cared about was winning this year, I would much rather have Curry sitting out.
> 
> What Duhon is doing as a rookie is remarkable. Rookies just do not play defense the way he does and have the effect on a team like he does. Assumig the normal improvement that rookies typically experience, Duhon is likely to become a pretty good player. Curry, on the other hand, is starting to get to the point where he needs way above average improvement for someone of his age in order to be as effective as Duhon is likely to become.
> 
> ...


Again, I completely agree with your assessment of Duhon. Where I think we differ in our opinion is on Curry's expected development.

Based on performance, I would think that Duhon is "worth" about $3-4mil starting upon resigning. Curry is "worth" is about $6-7mil starting due to the supply and demand argument stated in my previous post. It is pretty safe to say that Duhon will command less dollars and Curry will demand more upon resigning. If this is what you are getting at in terms of Curry being more expendable than Duhon, then I agree completely with you.

However, if you are worried about overpaying Curry based on his previous production for the salary that he is likely to command, then our opinions differ. My point is that if you continue to only sign value-type players, then the team will be left a step behind. "Star" type players will command more dollars than they are worth, simply because the asset is more rare. If we consistently sign only good-value type players, it is a great investment of assets. However, the way the CBA is structured, there are no guarantees that we will ever be able to use that money to sign another good-value type player to replace Curry if we say we need to let him go.

I am willing to accept Curry's potential to be a star in the league much more readily then I expect Duhon, based on his skill set in a big body alone. This potential is what I am willing to pay up for. Obviously, it would be wise to caution against signing Curry to a max-type deal. However, even if we do, he still will be a very tradeable asset, because other teams will be willing to pay top dollar for his rare offensive skill.

I think retaining Duhon is very important upon heading the franchise in the right direction, because like you, I think we can keep him at a very good value (even if we have to use part of the MLE). I think resigning Othella is equally, if not more important than Duhon, because I think it is likely that we can resign him at an even better value than Duhon (and at no expense to our flexibility this offseason at all). However, I would argue that keeping Curry is equally, if not more important even if we are overpaying his current production. Like I stated before, if Othella and Duhon are having abnormal years in terms of production by, then they will be viewed as overpaid without much trade interest around the league. However, if Curry is overpaid, he will still be very tradeable as most teams would love to have his low post scoring, even paying top dollar.

Thus, the risk of overpaying Curry is less than the risk of overpaying Duhon or Othella by a similar percentage.

That all said, I fully expect that we resign all of Curry, Chandler, Othella, and Duhon. Once we do this, we have two full years to further evaluate Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, and Nocioni's value/expendability to the team while further allowing player and chemistry development.


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## Dan Rosenbaum (Jun 3, 2002)

Rhyder, I think we are pretty much on the same page. The points you make about Curry being worth more as an asset is very true and something that teams think a lot about. Teams just never give up on big guys who show any bit of promise. And there is always a team out there who thinks they can get that underperforming big guy to play better.

At this point Curry looks a lot more like Zach Randolph than Jermaine O'Neal. I think both are very overrated, but Randolph is a guy that just does not help his team much. O'Neal is a positive, but not as much as a lot of folks assume. It was crazy that he was getting MVP consideration last season. When Curry plays well, he looks like he could be a star. Jerome James is the same way, but he is not close to being a star in this league. I don't think much of a premium should be paid for the five percent or so probability that Curry becomes a star in this league.

That said, the Bulls are a bad offensive team, so Curry probably has more value to the Bulls than he does than almost any other team. That is an important consideration, as well. Duhon, on the other hand, probably would be as valuable to several other teams as he is for the Bulls.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> What Duhon is doing as a rookie is remarkable. Rookies just do not play defense the way he does and have the effect on a team like he does.


Dan, I know you are a stats guy, so what stats are you using in addition to your observation of Du's D.

http://www.82games.com/04CHI2C.HTM

82 games doesn't show remarkable D by Du.

http://www.dougstats.com/04-05DefensiveTendex.html

The Defensive Tendex show that Curry is a good defender (huh?) with no sign of Du.

---------------------------------------

If you are using +/- differencial, I was wondering if you could give me some breakout on both Curry and Duhon from our first 19 games (4-15) vs the rest of the season. Thanks!


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## Dan Rosenbaum (Jun 3, 2002)

Johnston, I am not sure what I would make of adjusted plus/minus statistics over just 19 games. Adjusted plus/minus stats are not precise enough to measure over such small samples and learn anything useful from.

Over the past couple of years, I have consistently said that I do not think that Curry's defense is that bad - at least his defense on his own guy. That is why his defensive PER or defensive Tendex is pretty good. But the Bulls defense is more effective when Curry is off the floor. (The results are the opposite for Duhon.)

I know I am in the minority, but I think it is his offense that is, on average, pretty bad. His high number of turnovers and scarce assists make him a very inefficient offensive player, despite his high shooting percentage. There are situations where he is effective, and it is those situations that make him a pretty good role player. But right now he is a pretty long way from being anything more than a pretty good role player.

Interestingly, the Bulls offense is better when Duhon is on the floor, versus when he is not. The results are just the opposite for Curry.

There is nothing here that I am certain about, so maybe Curry is a more effective player than Duhon. I just think that it is hard to pull together convincing evidence for this argument. Curry probably does more spectacularly good things on the court, but he probably does many, many more bad things on the court.


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## ace20004u (Jun 19, 2002)

I don't think Duhon will get 3 mil or more a year as many of you have suggested. Sure, he is good, but so are a lot of other pg's in the league that will be free agents as well. It's all about supply and demand. There is an overabundance of supply and not much demand. I think Duhon is looking more at a 1.5-2 mil per year deal myself.

Curry will be getting a huge deal if his heart problems work out. Not sure where it will start but I think 8-10mil a year is probably likely. And Curry is SOOOO much more valuable to Du that I am amazed that anyone said anything to the contrary.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

ace20004u said:


> I don't think Duhon will get 3 mil or more a year as many of you have suggested. Sure, he is good, but so are a lot of other pg's in the league that will be free agents as well. It's all about supply and demand. There is an overabundance of supply and not much demand. I think Duhon is looking more at a 1.5-2 mil per year deal myself.
> 
> Curry will be getting a huge deal if his heart problems work out. Not sure where it will start but I think 8-10mil a year is probably likely. And Curry is SOOOO much more valuable to Du that I am amazed that anyone said anything to the contrary.


If I had to make a guess, I would expect him to get 3 years, $7mil from the Bulls and still be a very good value at that price.


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## ace20004u (Jun 19, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> If I had to make a guess, I would expect him to get 3 years, $7mil from the Bulls and still be a very good value at that price.


Yeah given the 12.5% raises that would be a deal starting at 2 mil per year which sounds more reasonable than some figures I have heard.


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## Sham (Dec 2, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> If Duhon is offered MLE + $1, can we re-sign him?



Nope. That's what we did to Brad Miller.

However, that won't happen.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

ShamBulls said:


> Nope. That's what we did to Brad Miller.
> 
> However, that won't happen.


That's why I suggested the + $1 figure.

I think Dan Rosenbaum has nailed Duhon's value to a "T".

Considering we are now a playoff team with this roster, and that we have no draft picks next year, retaining EVERY player is a key for us, especially our starting PG. 

Other teams know it, and a team that can use a starting or backup PG might well consider using full MLE (and + $1) to hurt us and to help themselves at the same time.


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> That's why I suggested the + $1 figure.
> 
> I think Dan Rosenbaum has nailed Duhon's value to a "T".
> 
> ...


Miller wanted out of Charlotte. He was not getting playing time, and was behind someone else. He was going to get a chance to be a starter, for a time at least, while the twin towers grew up. 

What does Duhon gain by going elsewhere? He has the best chance to shine here in Chicago, to improve his game in a system that is designed for someone like him.

The situations just don't seem plausible. People can offer crazy contracts, and the Bulls may well have to go up in their offer to match, but Duhon's prospects in Chicago are good, in the sense of being a key member of the rotation. I don't think one dollar is going to make the grass seem that much greener elsewhere. He doesn't have to accept any offer. Although if he received such an offer, he could use it to help himself in Chicago, that's for sure. 

I'm sorry. I've heard this argument elsewhere. Players are not driven by money alone. They want to be successful, put in situations where they can be effective, etc. Duhon has it pretty good here, and for a time to come. If the money offered by Chicago is perceived to be fair, I think he has every reason to stay.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> Miller wanted out of Charlotte. He was not getting playing time, and was behind someone else. He was going to get a chance to be a starter, for a time at least, while the twin towers grew up.
> 
> What does Duhon gain by going elsewhere? He has the best chance to shine here in Chicago, to improve his game in a system that is designed for someone like him.
> 
> ...


Before the playoffs are done, it is going to be crystal clear that Ben Gordon won't be a bench player next season, nor will he be getting bench player's minutes.

Hinrich can go 8-23 every night, and he'll still get 36+ minutes a game, even if the team has Du on the roster.

That has to be part of Du's thinking.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Before the playoffs are done, it is going to be crystal clear that Ben Gordon won't be a bench player next season, nor will he be getting bench player's minutes.
> 
> Hinrich can go 8-23 every night, and he'll still get 36+ minutes a game, even if the team has Du on the roster.
> 
> That has to be part of Du's thinking.


Right, but which team is going to offer him a better situation?


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Before the playoffs are done, it is going to be crystal clear that Ben Gordon won't be a bench player next season, nor will he be getting bench player's minutes.
> 
> *Hinrich can go 8-23 every night, and he'll still get 36+ minutes a game, even if the team has Du on the roster.*
> 
> That has to be part of Du's thinking.


You wouldn't happen to be implying that there is some kind of bias toward Hinrich, would you?

So Duhon will go somewhere where he can get a fair shake, unlike with the demon(-ized) Bulls?


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## fl_flash (Aug 19, 2002)

I could see Duhon getting a three year deal at around $7.5 mil total. ($2, $2.5, $3) Not bad for a mid-second round pick. He'll be making as much as many first rounders. I give the guy all the credit in the world for having enough confidence in himself to take a one year deal and gambling that his play and hard work would result in a bigger payday faster than his first round counterparts.

I've got to think that the Bulls would have no problem making that kind of offer and I have a hard time seeing many other teams exceeding that offer. Duhon has it very good here. Regardless of whether he's a starter or not in Chicago, he will see a great deal of PT. Skiles has shown that he'll run a three guard offense from time to time and Duhon would be a big part of that. Skiles values defense and Duhon has that in abundance. I also think that Duhon will look at situations and not strictly cash to make his decision on where to play. This is a young team with a great deal of upside. Does he eschew that for a couple hundered thousand more per year and go play for the Hawks? He doesn't strike me as that type. Besides, he'd make that in promotional revenue in Chicago. This city loves the blue-collar, hard working type of player.

However you slice it, Chris Duhon is going to be making quite a bit more next season than this one. Whether it's in Chicago or somewhere else remains to be seen. I certainly hope it's here.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Before the playoffs are done, it is going to be crystal clear that Ben Gordon won't be a bench player next season, nor will he be getting bench player's minutes.
> 
> Hinrich can go 8-23 every night, and he'll still get 36+ minutes a game, even if the team has Du on the roster.
> 
> That has to be part of Du's thinking.


Another part of Du's thinking might be that he wasn't expected to make the roster as a second round pick on a 23-win team. The Bulls gave him a chance as he played well in the preseason, then gave him an even bigger chance by inserting a second round rookie into the starting lineup over the #3 pick in the draft.

The situation the Bulls have given him has increased his value more than he could possibly could have imagined after a single year. I think this is where the team loyalties come into play.

Obviously, if some team is willing to play a couple million more (or more years) than the Bulls are willing to give him, then he will probably move on. However, I'm sure he would be quite happy being the third guard in our rotation when a season ago he probably was expecting to be living in Europe.

Of course, there could be other behind-the-scenes type stuff that could be evident, but the fan base will never be aware unless he moves to another team and opens his mouth. He could hate Chicago outside of basketball for all we know. Duhon does not seem to be a player who likes to bad mouth, so it is not unlikely that we ever find out some behind the scenes problem if he moves on and any existed.


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## Hustle (Dec 17, 2003)

How much dough for Du?



fl_flash said:


> I could see Duhon getting a three year deal at around $7.5 mil total. ($2, $2.5, $3) Not bad for a mid-second round pick. He'll be making as much as many first rounders. I give the guy all the credit in the world for having enough confidence in himself to take a one year deal and gambling that his play and hard work would result in a bigger payday faster than his first round counterparts.
> 
> I've got to think that the Bulls would have no problem making that kind of offer and I have a hard time seeing many other teams exceeding that offer. Duhon has it very good here. Regardless of whether he's a starter or not in Chicago, he will see a great deal of PT. Skiles has shown that he'll run a three guard offense from time to time and Duhon would be a big part of that. Skiles values defense and Duhon has that in abundance. I also think that Duhon will look at situations and not strictly cash to make his decision on where to play. This is a young team with a great deal of upside. Does he eschew that for a couple hundered thousand more per year and go play for the Hawks? He doesn't strike me as that type. Besides, he'd make that in promotional revenue in Chicago. This city loves the blue-collar, hard working type of player.
> 
> However you slice it, Chris Duhon is going to be making quite a bit more next season than this one. Whether it's in Chicago or somewhere else remains to be seen. I certainly hope it's here.



I will go along with that figure. It's a shame we didn't give him a few years to begin with. Pax's one mistake, but it is a mistake about ten other teams made also.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Mikedc said:


> Right, but which team is going to offer him a better situation?


Boston
Philadelphia
Milwaukee
Charlotte? (Brevin Knight will be 31 next season)
Atlanta
Houston
Minnesota
Utah

He might end up being the starter on any of those teams. Considering Sloan's love of defensive minded players, Du would be an awesome fit there. That is, if Du wanted to live in Utah...


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Another part of Du's thinking might be that he wasn't expected to make the roster as a second round pick on a 23-win team. The Bulls gave him a chance as he played well in the preseason, then gave him an even bigger chance by inserting a second round rookie into the starting lineup over the #3 pick in the draft.
> 
> The situation the Bulls have given him has increased his value more than he could possibly could have imagined after a single year. I think this is where the team loyalties come into play.
> 
> ...


That must have been Carlos Boozer's line of thinking, too.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> You wouldn't happen to be implying that there is some kind of bias toward Hinrich, would you?
> 
> So Duhon will go somewhere where he can get a fair shake, unlike with the demon(-ized) Bulls?


It's a fact of life as far as the Bulls go.

I'm not suggesting there's a bias (at least not in this thread). If I were running for public office, I'd count votes. If I were an NBA player looking to get playing time, I'd be counting the minutes of the players who might get the nod instead of me.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

Sorry, folks -- in the NBA, loyalty and 5 dollars will get you a venti mochacchino at Starbucks.

There are plenty of recent examples of guys turning down a better basketball situation for nothing more than money. Boozer turned down the chance to be LeBron's sidekick for more money. Rafer Alston turned down the chance to run with Dwyane Wade for more money. Derek Fisher left the Lakers for nothing more money. Hell, you could argue that Crawford left the Bulls for nothing more than money.

I come up dry when I try to find examples of the opposite phenomenon -- does anyone know of a case from the last couple of seasons where a guy left a lot of money on the table to stay with his current team and a better basketball situation (be it playing time, winning, etc.)?


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> Sorry, folks -- in the NBA, loyalty and 5 dollars will get you a venti mochacchino at Starbucks.
> 
> There are plenty of recent examples of guys turning down a better basketball situation for nothing more than money. Boozer turned down the chance to be LeBron's sidekick for more money. Rafer Alston turned down the chance to run with Dwyane Wade for more money. Derek Fisher left the Lakers for nothing more money. Hell, you could argue that Crawford left the Bulls for nothing more than money.
> 
> I come up dry when I try to find examples of the opposite phenomenon -- does anyone know of a case from the last couple of seasons where a guy left a lot of money on the table to stay with his current team and a better basketball situation (be it playing time, winning, etc.)?


Karl Malone and Gary Payton took $1M salaries to try to get rings with the Lakers last season. Not exactly what you were asking for, but that's pretty darn close.

And possibly a first and only.

EDIT: I take some of it back. Payton did re-sign with Boston after the Walker trade, and for something like vet minimum, I do believe.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Karl Malone and Gary Payton took $1M salaries to try to get rings with the Lakers last season. Not exactly what you were asking for, but that's pretty darn close.
> 
> And possibly a first and only.
> 
> EDIT: I take some of it back. Payton did re-sign with Boston after the Walker trade, and for something like vet minimum, I do believe.


Payton and Malone were also coming off $100+ million contracts that paid them damn near $20 million the year before. Financial security wasn't an issue in their cases.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> That must have been Carlos Boozer's line of thinking, too.


Again, Boozer accepted a MUCH larger offer than what Cleveland was willing to pay him. I already stated that if Duhon receives a significantly larger offer than the Bulls are willing to pay, I'm sure he will move on. If the difference is $1mil or less over three years, I'm sure team loyalties, living environment, and mintues will be more the deciding factor.

You are operating under the assumption that the Bulls will snub Duhon, or that Duhon does not want to play behind Hinrich by your comments.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Again, Boozer accepted a MUCH larger offer than what Cleveland was willing to pay him. I already stated that if Duhon receives a significantly larger offer than the Bulls are willing to pay, I'm sure he will move on. If the difference is $1mil or less over three years, I'm sure team loyalties, living environment, and mintues will be more the deciding factor.
> 
> You are operating under the assumption that the Bulls will snub Duhon, or that Duhon does not want to play behind Hinrich by your comments.


If I were a young NBA player in Duhon's position, I'd consider that I could have a career-ending injury tomorrow. For that reason, I'd want to maximize my earnings in the quickest time possible. 3rd or 4th guard position on a team doesn't earn as much as a starter.

That's all there is to it.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Boston
> Philadelphia
> Milwaukee
> Charlotte? (Brevin Knight will be 31 next season)
> ...


* Philly has AI
* Houston is loaded with Sura, Wesley, and Mike James
* The T-Wolves have Troy Hudson signed long-term and they've got Sam Cassell under contract for one more year.
* Knight is hardly old and Jason Hart also performed very well for Charlotte. They've got a high pick in the draft heavy in PGs too.

Now some of those teams might be interested, but none of them would seem to offer a clearly better situation than the Bulls in terms of PT. On any of those teams, Du will be crunched for time just like he is likely to be here. 

* The Hawks and Jazz, OK, I could see them being interested, but they similarly will have high picks to spend. Someone is going to spend big bucks and a draft pick on Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Raymond Felton. That will likely knock one of those teams out of the running, maybe both. Then you've got other FAs he's competing with too.

Of course it only takes one team, but given that there are only two that look like they are going to be able to offer a better situation, and they have high draft picks and plenty of FA options, I'm not overly concerned Duhon's going to get an unmatchable option.

More likely than not, those teams will look for a more high profile signing.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

DaBullz said:


> If I were a young NBA player in Duhon's position, I'd consider that I could have a career-ending injury tomorrow. For that reason, I'd want to maximize my earnings in the quickest time possible. 3rd or 4th guard position on a team doesn't earn as much as a starter.
> 
> That's all there is to it.


This is one of those rare occassions in which I agree with you, DaBullz. Money matters - a lot. And there is nothing wrong with that at all. I've said before, even in this thread, that I expect someone to outbid the Bulls for Duhon.

And I don't even think this will require the full MLE. The MLE (and the vet exception I suppose) is all Chicago has. I see them looking to do more with that amount that just signing Duhon. Therefore, a team like the Hawks won't even have to reach, let alone exceed, the full MLE to pry Du away in my opinion.

I'm sure Du likes the Bulls. But its a little naive to think that a guy just beginning his career is going to cut himself short for that reason alone. 

But, conversely, its also wrong to believe that a player will *only* consider money - if the disparity is minor. I know your $1 was an extreme example, but I certainly could see Du taking less to stay with Chicago if the amount were relatively insignificant.

I recently turned down a comparable job that would have paid me about 5% more per year than I make now. But I like where I work, so I rejected it (after much agonizing thought). But if that figure where 15% instead, I'd probably be typing this from a different keyboard right now no matter how much I like my current employer.

$ talks. And even "good team guys" like Duhon listen.


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## fl_flash (Aug 19, 2002)

Supposedly our very own, beloved Eddie Robinson had garnered a better offer from the Spurs but chose Chicago because he'd be getting more playing time. Kobe stayed with the Lakers even tho the Clips offered him all they could (don't know if that fits the criteria). 

There appears to be those here who know what's "best for Duhon". I would tend to think that's a case by case situation. Money is definatly a factor. There may be other things that are important to him that none here know about. To simply dismiss any thoughts that his situation here may be to his liking and hence he might take less to stay is foolish. I know it's popular to think the world is full of mercinaries and that the almight dollar holds sway over all, yet there are those rare individuals who value other things just as much.

If Duhon gets an offer this summer from some team of a full MLE deal and the Bulls only offer half, he'd be crazy to turn it down. If there is very little to any difference between offers, I don't see why he'd leave - even if the situation is "better" as I have a hard time seeing him in a "better" situation than he's got here.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Ron Cey said:


> This is one of those rare occassions in which I agree with you, DaBullz. Money matters - a lot. And there is nothing wrong with that at all. I've said before, even in this thread, that I expect someone to outbid the Bulls for Duhon.
> 
> And I don't even think this will require the full MLE. The MLE (and the vet exception I suppose) is all Chicago has. I see them looking to do more with that amount that just signing Duhon. Therefore, a team like the Hawks won't even have to reach, let alone exceed, the full MLE to pry Du away in my opinion.
> 
> ...


The $1 is not an extreme example. That is an amount that the Bulls cannot match due to CBA rules ($1 or more over MLE).


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> The $1 is not an extreme example. That is an amount that the Bulls cannot match due to CBA rules ($1 or more over MLE).


Is the one dollar for moving expenses, or what?


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> If I were a young NBA player in Duhon's position, I'd consider that I could have a career-ending injury tomorrow. For that reason, I'd want to maximize my earnings in the quickest time possible. 3rd or 4th guard position on a team doesn't earn as much as a starter.
> 
> That's all there is to it.


Going back to your list then of teams Duhon will start for:

*Boston* - Competing with Tony Allen, Marcus Banks, or Delonte West plus they could resign Payton for an additional year. I don't see them paying up for Duhon for more than the Bulls can afford.

*Philadelphia* - Do you bench Korver or Iguodala. Answer is neither. Iverson has shown he can play as the scoring PG quite well, this season especially. Would Duhon want to play in a three-guard rotation with A.I. and Iggy... I think he would get less mintues if signed here.

*Milwaukee* - They need to resign Redd and need significant frontcourt help if they are to make the playoffs. Even with T.J. Ford's future as cloudy, they do have a bright spot in Mo Williams. I doubt that they even look in Duhon's direction. Duhon is a better passer and defender; however, Williams can break down a defense. I doubt they spend their dollars replicating a position that they are happy with when there are so many other holes on the team.

*Charlotte* Certainly a possibility here. He would start and get quality minutes. The big question is how much does Duhon think he can increase his value playing for a bottom feeder team. Brevin had a fantastic season, but hardly gets any press outside of Charlotte and is still labled a backup on a real team. If I were Duhon, I would take a few less minutes and play for a Chicago to gain more exposure and increase value by playing for a winner. Of course, this is a team that could offer Du a larger contract that the Bulls might be willing to match. That's the only scenerio I see Duhon moving away from Chicago for.

*Atlanta* - Nearly identical to the Charlotte situation described. They only get Duhon if they are willing to pay up for him.

*Houston* - They have Mike James, Sura, Norris, and an option on Ward. They only have the MLE to spend. I don't see them offering Duhon any more that what Chicago would be willing to pay. They most likely will target a backup Center with their MLE.

*Minnesota* - Cassell is still under contract next season. I know Cassell has not been the exemplary player this past season, but I doubt that they offer Duhon a contract and say he will start ahead of him. He would get more minutes in Chicago.

*Utah* - This is the first team I would seriously worry makes a play for Duhon that fits your argument. Offering a starting spot on a quality team (i.e. non rebuilding). If Utah wants to spend the dollars, $3.5-4mil, for Duhon and offer him the starting spot, I just don't see Chicago matching. Of course, this also depends on what other PGs are available. There could be an interesting S&T option in Bell for Duhon, however.

Let me add one more to your list of worries:
*L.A. Lakers* - This is the ideal team that would fit your argument for Duhon. If offered the same contract as the Bulls, he could choose to go play for L.A. to increase his value. He would earn starter minutes, play in a major market, and play next to Kobe. This is the sole team that I see that completely fits what you are getting at.

My list of teams I'm worried about Duhon moving to:
L.A. Lakers
Utah

Possibles, but would have to be very high on Duhon and be willing to outbid ($3.5-4mil starting) Chicago:
Atlanta
Charlotte

That's it.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Mikedc said:


> * Philly has AI
> * Houston is loaded with Sura, Wesley, and Mike James
> * The T-Wolves have Troy Hudson signed long-term and they've got Sam Cassell under contract for one more year.
> * Knight is hardly old and Jason Hart also performed very well for Charlotte. They've got a high pick in the draft heavy in PGs too.
> ...


Who's Philly's other guard? And would they rather have AI play SG?

Cassell played just 59 games (injury prone?) and only managed 25 minutes per game. Are you suggesting he's a long-term solution for Minny, or would you agree that his job is ripe for the taking by a young guy like Du?

Charlotte is an expansion team. I like Knight just fine, but Du is the kind of guy who they could build around (i.e. younger players, not that he's a superstar).

Du's a known quantity. Any draft picks aren't. And if you already signed Du, you could use that pick to fill another position.

Anyhow, that was my thinking when I listed those teams.

Whether any of them can do MLE + $1 is another issue. Certainly Charlotte and Atlanta, but I don't know about the others.

I didn't mention Dallas, either. They are clearly willing to pay players of various levels of ability big dollars if it suits the owner's whim...

Heck, the Knicks might use full MLE on Du if they are willing to let Marbury play some SG, or play Du there. In spite of having Crawford and Marbury, they were clearly thin at both guard positions.


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

Ron Cey said:


> This is one of those rare occassions in which I agree with you, DaBullz. Money matters - a lot. And there is nothing wrong with that at all. I've said before, even in this thread, that I expect someone to outbid the Bulls for Duhon.
> 
> And I don't even think this will require the full MLE. The MLE (and the vet exception I suppose) is all Chicago has. I see them looking to do more with that amount that just signing Duhon. Therefore, a team like the Hawks won't even have to reach, let alone exceed, the full MLE to pry Du away in my opinion.
> 
> ...


Nobody disagrees that money matters. Your example is a good one. (I hope your employer is reading this....or maybe not!) 

Anyway, DaBullz is arguing from a point of principle. 
"Duhon should not be bound by loyalty. Relationships don't matter, as much as maximizing one's own potential and earnings portfolio. Deal with it."
He's defending the principle, not saying that is what Duhon will do. He doesn't know, anymore than anyone else. But he does enjoy trying to puncture peoples' bubbles about the importance of other things. 

Time will tell who is right. So far, "Time has not been kind" to his stances on Pax and Skiles.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> Is the one dollar for moving expenses, or what?


It's enough to guarantee, by CBA rules, that the Bulls cannot match the contract offer.

Sheesh.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Aside from the teams we've been talking about, virtually any team is a potential suitor for Duhon if they intend to, or want the flexibility of, trading the guy they already have at PG.


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> It's enough to guarantee, by CBA rules, that the Bulls cannot match the contract offer.


IF DUHON ACCEPTS IT....



> Sheesh.


 yourself.

Edit:

Sorry for getting testy. I'm just not aware of a "hostile takeover" option in the CBA. Boozer left because he got a "much better" offer. He agreed to go. And even then, it looks like he screwed himself, from a basketball point of view. If money is all that matters, then, yes, who cares. He could pull an EROB and just sit down and count his money. And why don't more people do things like that? Just screw each other over totally, because really, what's it to them. It happens, I know. But is it the norm? What do you think? Is it the standard for our society, or any healthy society?

Miller's case was again a chance for a much better opportunity, and many more minutes. I don't see how Duhon can think that he's going to be squeezed out in terms of minutes, especially when the contract the Bulls are going to give him will almost certainly preclude them getting any significant competition for him. Ben's role will increase, yes, but more likely at the expense of Pargo, Pike or Griffin, maybe even Kirk, then of Duhon.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> IF DUHON ACCEPTS IT....
> 
> yourself.


Of course he'd accept it. Look at all the experts here who think he's barely worth half MLE.

If a team has the ability to pay more than MLE, they'll go $1 over MLE (or something smallish over) to prevent the Bulls from making a counter offer close to MLE. If I were GM of another team, I wouldn't offer just MLE in this case, because it wouldn't be worth my time or the risk of having the Bulls try to make that counter.

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#35

35. Haven't some restricted free agents gotten away anyway? How did this happen?

It may also have been that the original team was incapable of matching the offer sheet. The NBA has a limited right of first refusal for restricted free agents. A team gets an exception big enough to make a qualifying offer, but the team must use its cap room (if it has any) or a different exception to match another team's offer. If a new team signs the player to a very large offer sheet, the player's original team may not be able to match it. If this happens, the original team has no choice but to lose the free agent. This is how Chicago was able to sign Brad Miller in 2000 -- Miller was Charlotte's restricted free agent, but the most Charlotte could give him was $3.9 million (using the Early Bird exception). <B>Chicago signed Miller to an offer sheet with a first-year salary just over Charlotte's limit, and Charlotte was unable to match.</B>

<FONT COLOR=#0000ff>The Bulls "limit" is MLE and no more</FONT>


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Of course he'd accept it. Look at all the experts here who think he's barely worth half MLE.
> 
> If a team has the ability to pay more than MLE, they'll go $1 over MLE (or something smallish over) to prevent the Bulls from making a counter offer close to MLE. If I were GM of another team, I wouldn't offer just MLE in this case, because it wouldn't be worth my time or the risk of having the Bulls try to make that counter.
> 
> ...


Well, I'll state the case one more time, for emphasis. 

Duhon has to sign the offer sheet. 

If he has received indications from the Bulls that they won't go near that offer, and Duhon likes the new situation, he'll take it. 

But if the Bulls go near it, and one dollar is pretty damn near it, why does he take the extra dollar, for the sake of changing his situation from a pretty stable and significant role on an up and coming team, with a coach who likes and respects him? Again, for moving expenses?


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## Dan Rosenbaum (Jun 3, 2002)

. . .


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Of course he'd accept it. Look at all the experts here who think he's barely worth half MLE.
> 
> If a team has the ability to pay more than MLE, they'll go $1 over MLE (or something smallish over) to prevent the Bulls from making a counter offer close to MLE. If I were GM of another team, I wouldn't offer just MLE in this case, because it wouldn't be worth my time or the risk of having the Bulls try to make that counter.
> 
> ...


DaBullz, I completely understand that point you are trying to make (that we should operate on the side of caution), and that another team might be willing to pay more dollars to Duhon than one might expect. However, team loyalities are a factor that for some reason you cannot accept by the direction of your posts.

You refute my point by using Boozer as an example, which I clearly stated if team A offers significantly more money than Chicago I would expect Duhon to take more money. You refute Good Hope's point by basically saying "duh." Good Hope's point is if some team offered Duhon $1 more than the MLE (as cited in your example), that Duhon might take a full MLE offer from us. Since he is not a RFA, he does not have to sign an offer sheet. Therefore, he could sign with us even if another team offers $1 more than the full MLE.

You somehow fail to acknowledge other people's arguments while stating the obvious yourself, and trying to make us feel "dumb" for bringing up valid discussion. I'm not sure if that is your intent, but it is certainly how you are coming across. I know that no one that has responded in this thread has blindly stated, "Duhon wants to be a Bull for life and is willing to take a pay cut to do so." Yet you point this out over and over like none of us had thought of your side...

Team loyalty could work against us too. For all we know, he could be unhappy playing for coach Skiles, living in Chicago, etc... in which case he could take the same or less money to play for another team. I would tend to think the latter is more unlikely than the former, but only Duhon, his family, and his agent probably know.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

DaBullz said:


> The $1 is not an extreme example. That is an amount that the Bulls cannot match due to CBA rules ($1 or more over MLE).


I know that. Extreme in the sense that I find it highly unlikely that Duhon would elect to leave the Bulls to make one extra dollar.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> . . .


This was my favorite post in this thread since our discussion, Dan. :banana:


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> Well, I'll state the case one more time, for emphasis.
> 
> Duhon has to sign the offer sheet.
> 
> ...


For the Nth time...

If I were GM of a team, in the Bulls' division particularly, I would consider making Duhon the $1 (or some other amount) above MLE to steal Duhon away from the Bulls. 

It would hurt the Bulls because they have no draft picks, and just MLE to use to keep their players (Harrington) and sign anyone new. This helps my team by making a tough opponent less tough. 

It would help MY team, because I think Duhon is the kind of player that Dan Rosenbaum suggests he is. That is, he contributes to a team winning ballgames in ways the stats don't measure.

Duhon is young, and with a long career ahead of him. I could get him for fairly cheap, and still use my draft pick to fill another position.

<B>I don't remember ANYONE posting in this forum that they think Paxson is willing to go even beyond 1/2 MLE for him. But I guess you are, now.</B> (EDIT: this is for others who've recently posted)

Duhon isn't guaranteed as much playing time next year. In fact, there's a nice thread about Deng playing some SG - guess who's minutes he's going to get? And I pointed out that Gordon is certain to get more PT next year, too. 

I've made my points. I'm done with you.


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## FreeSpeech101 (Jul 30, 2004)

If the Bulls truly want to make Duhon the PG of the future, they will have to show him the money, full MLE plus a little behind the scenes action.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

DaBullz said:


> For the Nth time...
> 
> If I were GM of a team, in the Bulls' division particularly, I would consider making Duhon the $1 (or some other amount) above MLE to steal Duhon away from the Bulls.
> 
> ...


Calm down. None of us understood that your hypothetical assumed the Bulls wouldn't match a pure MLE offer. You never said that. In fact, your hypothetical of $1 over the MLE suggests that the motivation behind that figure is that it would be offered out of concern that the Bulls would, in fact, match the pure MLE. 

If your argument is that Duhon will likely take the MLE + $1 from another team over a Bulls offer of $2.75 million per year then I think I speak for most everyone when I say: agreed.


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> For the Nth time...
> 
> If I were GM of a team, in the Bulls' division particularly, I would consider making Duhon the $1 (or some other amount) above MLE to steal Duhon away from the Bulls.
> 
> ...


Ok, if fairly cheap means the MLE +1, we're now only talking teams with cap room. I'm not an expert, but that's far fewer options than the teams with the MLE. And Paxson gets to make that choice. If he agrees that getting Duhon after the year he's had for the MLE is reasonable, he'll do it (he's stated his intention to resign, and he promised to match Du's salary, not just Eddy's and Tyson's). 

Harrington is ours to resign, by the way.



> <B>I don't remember ANYONE posting in this forum that they think Paxson is willing to go even beyond 1/2 MLE for him. But I guess you are, now.</B> (EDIT: this is for others who've recently posted)


I'm saying what I said above. Pax can come close. If he thinks Du is worth it, he will, and Duhon has every reason to sign and stay with the Bulls. If he looks over his options and likes other people who are available, then, he lets Duhon go and wishes him the best, as he did for JC.



> Duhon isn't guaranteed as much playing time next year. In fact, there's a nice thread about Deng playing some SG - guess who's minutes he's going to get?


Quite likely, some of Gordon's at the two, and especially some of Kirk's, when it comes to guarding the larger twos in the league. Edit: And Pike's and Griffin's.



> I've made my points. I'm done with you.


Believe me, I'm glad you're done with me. Your points (and how you have made them) are clear to everyone.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> IF DUHON ACCEPTS IT....
> Sorry for getting testy. I'm just not aware of a "hostile takeover" option in the CBA. Boozer left because he got a "much better" offer. He agreed to go. And even then, it looks like he screwed himself, from a basketball point of view. If money is all that matters, then, yes, who cares. He could pull an EROB and just sit down and count his money. And why don't more people do things like that? Just screw each other over totally, because really, what's it to them. It happens, I know. But is it the norm? What do you think? Is it the standard for our society, or any healthy society?


Cleveland could not match Boozer's offer from Utah, because it was at least $1 more than Cleveland could pay without somehow making more cap room. It was exactly a hostile takeover option in the CBA that Utah took advantage of.

It looks to me like Cleveland had about $3M to pay Boozer, which was a significant bump from his previous salary. He took a 3x higher salary to leave.

I'm suggesting a 2x higher salary would easily get Du to leave.




> Miller's case was again a chance for a much better opportunity, and many more minutes. I don't see how Duhon can think that he's going to be squeezed out in terms of minutes, especially when the contract the Bulls are going to give him will almost certainly preclude them getting any significant competition for him. Ben's role will increase, yes, but more likely at the expense of Pargo, Pike or Griffin, maybe even Kirk, then of Duhon.


Pargo played in 32 games, and didn't play in 3 consecutive games until March 21, or about the time of Deng's injury. Deng's coming back.

Pike played 68 games and about 1 quarter's worth of minutes per. He has two real attributes that earn him time, that Duhon can't replace: height, and 3-ball shooting ability.

Griffin has been purely a garbage time player. I don't think those are the minutes Duhon cares about.

Duhon's minutes are already squeezed - he managed just 26 minutes per game. 

The real question is whether he sees himself ultimately as a role player, or if he sees himself as a starter. The bulls were 0-9 before he became a starter, and the results are impressive. Impressive enough to encourage other teams to consider him, IMO, and impressive enough for him to feel he's worth more than Pax is willing to pay. Impressive enough for him to seek MORE minutes elsewhere, and more dollars is even better.


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## fl_flash (Aug 19, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> For the Nth time...
> 
> If I were GM of a team, in the Bulls' division particularly, I would consider making Duhon the $1 (or some other amount) above MLE to steal Duhon away from the Bulls.
> 
> ...


Sure, any GM can make that offer and the Bulls would be helpless to counter it. The thing you keep ignoring is that Duhon has to actually accept and SIGN that offer sheet. That would mean that all things being equal, Duhon wants to leave here pretty badly. Maybe Pax tells him (or his agent) that if he gets that kind of offer he's not going to match it because he doesn't feel Duhon is worth it. If that's the case, more power to Chris - take the money and run. Nodoby knows what's going to play out this summer. We're just going to have to wait and see.

Also, as has been pointed out, we can exceed the cap to resign Harrington. IE, we have his Bird Rights.

I have no clue what Duhon is going to garner on the open market. I know what I think he should get and have stated such. NBA Gm's are a different breed and they tend to overspend or at least some of the contracts they give out make you scratch you head sometimes.

Papa Jerry has some interesting decisions to make this summer. The Piper has arrived and it's time to pay.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

I don't get the turn this thread has taken. I really don't see what's at debate here, since I don't see much disagreement about the key variables.

1. Duhon must agree to an offer. If another team offers significantly more than the Bulls, he's likely to take it, just like anyone else. If another team only offers a trivial amount more, it's much less clear Chris would jump at such an opportunity.

2. The Bulls will likely be able to match any offer if they desire to. If he accepts an offer greater than the MLE, then no, they probably can't. Given their backcourt situation, though, I'm skeptical they would if they could. I'm with Ron Cey in thinking they may not match a full MLE offer. They'd certainly be thinking long and hard about it.

3. To be an issue, another team would need to offer something on the order of $3M to start. That's enough that we have to use the MLE to re-sign him, which cuts into other plans (say, Marshall?), and it's enough above the LLE ($2M? about?) that Duhon would probably think long and hard and take the additional money. The more they offer above $3M, the more tempting the offer will become for Chris and the harder to match for us.

Would another team do that? It's certainly conceivable, but it's hardly a certainty either. Randomly:
* The Pistons might be. They've gotten nothing from Carlos Arroyo, and I could see Larry Brown getting a lot out of Duhon.
* The Cavs could be... he could probably play well with LeBron. 
* In either of those cases, though, Pax has to measure the gain to the other team by letting Chris go there. I think he's got to be more willing to match one of those teams than say, the Lakers or Jazz.
* If Phil Jackson returns to the Lakers, as expected, don't expect them to look hard at Duhon. Does he look like a Phil Jackson guard?
* My gut feeling is the Jazz, and Hawks will figure something out with their draft picks and vast resevoirs of FA money. As Dan has pointed out, Duhon isn't a "big name". I think teams at the bottom think big, and I think they'll overlook him in favor of something flashier.
* I think the Bobcats will stick with the two pretty good PGs they have unless they draft someone. 
* One effect of all the credit going to Skiles is that it somewhat devalues (or perhaps reflects the thinking on his value) Duhon. That is, if everyone is saying "look at how good Skiles is, he's winning with that kid as his starting PG", it either means they are over-rating skiles or they don't like Duhon very much. In either case, they aren't going to pay him a ton of cash if they think his success is due to coaching.


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## Da Grinch (Aug 17, 2002)

Mikedc said:


> * Philly has AI
> * Houston is loaded with Sura, Wesley, and Mike James
> * The T-Wolves have Troy Hudson signed long-term and they've got Sam Cassell under contract for one more year.
> * Knight is hardly old and Jason Hart also performed very well for Charlotte. They've got a high pick in the draft heavy in PGs too.
> ...


i could think of others . 

the raptors ....who are looking to move on from rafer alston

the hornets , who could use an upgrade from dan dickau.

the knicks , who are said to be looking at damon stoudmire as a back up pg ...if they can look at damon i dont see why they would be adverse to going duhon's way(although i doubt very much he would go)

dallas, jason terry is a free agent i'm not sure he fits in with Avery's new defensive minded unit ....but duhon would seem to be a perfect match.

Bucks ...could also use an upgrade.

the bulls dont seem to be offering duhon much of a long term starting gig unless they make a trade which is something he must want because all players want it if for no other reason than the status of it , money issues aside.


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## bullet (Jul 1, 2003)

PD said:


> If someone is crazy enough to offer him $5M/yr, let them be. We shoudl not match it. Duhon is worth $3M max. So 8-9M/3yrs sounds good. I would even go $25M/6 yrs. That sounds reasonable for both sides.


I like that even better , PD.

Duhon is exactly the kind of guy you wanna lock up for a longturm. You know he'll always work hard , always Play D , always be positive lockeroom influence , and be a good distributer. And if he continues shooting the 3p like he did since Jan (0.38% , except for March, even higher) that would be one of the highest worth contracts around. 

anyway - *we must resign Duhon!* he's worth to us way above what stats show imo.


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## Greg Ostertag! (May 1, 2003)

There is a massive difference betweent the case of Carlos Boozer choosing Utah over a better situation in Cleveland. That was about 30-40 million dollars. It could possibly be 1-2 million max for Chris Duhon, if it even gets to the point of other teams tabling offers.


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## bullet (Jul 1, 2003)

Duhon is a good PG and proved himself this year.

But one thing we have to remember is he's worth to us much more than for other teams. He fits Skiles/Pax mold completely , not sure about his minutes in different teams.and also there are lots of 'nice' PG's who can defend and distribute. those 2 things might help us sign him cheaper. 
Sloan is the Kind of coach that would want him and let him play. Lakers also bother me - they have no true PG and thats exactly what he is. He'd fit right in next to mister selfish Kobe (still a great player) and form one of the best defnsive backcourts.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> Johnston, I am not sure what I would make of adjusted plus/minus statistics over just 19 games. Adjusted plus/minus stats are not precise enough to measure over such small samples and learn anything useful from......
> 
> 
> Interestingly, the Bulls offense is better when Duhon is on the floor, versus when he is not. The results are just the opposite for Curry.
> ...


You talk about the variablity for 19 games. Fine. I agree. Look at our last 30 games - Hinrich is our WORST player by far.

http://www.82games.com/onoff30.htm

We are -5 points/48 mins with Hinrich in the game. We are +10 points/48 mins with Hinrich out.

I don't believe that is accurate over the long haul. Not by a long shot.

So if 19 games isn't enough. And if 30 games isn't enough. Is 82 games enough?

Again, I don't think so. Brand was average in +/- last year. And he was awesome this year. So by this variance, Duhon could be average or below average next year.

And by using other statistical measures, like Hollinger's PER or the NBA's effeciency score, Curry is the much better player than Duhon.


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## Dan Rosenbaum (Jun 3, 2002)

johnston797 said:


> You talk about the variablity for 19 games. Fine. I agree. Look at our last 30 games - Hinrich is our WORST player by far.
> 
> http://www.82games.com/onoff30.htm
> 
> ...


But Johnston, you are making some strong assumptions about what I do. The pure adjusted plus/minus rating is only a small part of my overall rating. The biggest part is based upon box score statistics, just like PER, except that my box score-based statistic is calibrated to predict which types of players tend to have good adjusted plus/minus statistics (i.e. which players help their teams win). Duhon has a better pure adjusted plus/minus statistic then Curry does, and players like Duhon historically have better adjusted plus/minus statistics than do players like Curry. The former statistic uses only 82 games for Duhon, but uses three seasons of data for Curry (but weighting this season more heavily). The latter statistic is derived from the adjusted plus/minus statistics from every player over the past three seasons. So I agree that even 82 games is not enough to get reasonably precise estimates using adjusted plus/minus statistics, but that is not what I am doing. I am using a lot more than what you are presupposing.

And by the way, I do not think that anyone has more consistently pointed out the limits of plus/minus statistics than I have. In fact, I made the very point about extrapolating from small samples in my NY Times piece on this very subject. So I think it is a bit unfair to assume that I am not taking any of that into account.

And on Brand, my adjusted plus/minus rating has him at 3.2 points per 40 minutes more effective than an average NBA player. The box score-based rating has him at 3.5 points per 40 minutes better. It is that kind of consistency that I think gives more credibility to the estimates.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> But Johnston, you are making some strong assumptions about what I do. The pure adjusted plus/minus rating is only a small part of my overall rating. The biggest part is based upon box score statistics, just like PER, except that my box score-based statistic is calibrated to predict which types of players tend to have good adjusted plus/minus statistics (i.e. which players help their teams win). Duhon has a better pure adjusted plus/minus statistic then Curry does, and players like Duhon historically have better adjusted plus/minus statistics than do players like Curry. The former statistic uses only 82 games for Duhon, but uses three seasons of data for Curry (but weighting this season more heavily). The latter statistic is derived from the adjusted plus/minus statistics from every player over the past three seasons. So I agree that even 82 games is not enough to get reasonably precise estimates using adjusted plus/minus statistics, but that is not what I am doing. I am using a lot more than what you are presupposing.
> 
> And by the way, I do not think that anyone has more consistently pointed out the limits of plus/minus statistics than I have. In fact, I made the very point about extrapolating from small samples in my NY Times piece on this very subject. So I think it is a bit unfair to assume that I am not taking any of that into account.
> 
> And on Brand, my adjusted plus/minus rating has him at 3.2 points per 40 minutes more effective than an average NBA player. The box score-based rating has him at 3.5 points per 40 minutes better. It is that kind of consistency that I think gives more credibility to the estimates.


Dan, 

You know that I am a big fan of your work, but to the best of my knowledge, you have posted NONE of it for this year's statistics. So you have yet to release any rating with Duhon included publiclly.

Therefore, on one hand, you say your magic black box indicates that no one should be able to make a compelling case that Curry is more valuable than Duhon.

But on the other hand, there is NO publically available statistics other than 82games adjusted +/- that would indicate Duhon is more valuable than Curry. Most publically available statistics would indicate Curry is more valuable than Duhon.

So in conclusion, it seems that you are asking all of us to just trust you that your ratings are accurate and that Duhon is better than Curry. Without any context of what the gap of the difference is and how these two compare to other players on the Bulls and around the league.

This type of "black box" or "trust me, I am the expert" arguement kind of defeats the whole purpose of these boards, doesn't it?


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## Dan Rosenbaum (Jun 3, 2002)

johnston797 said:


> Dan,
> 
> You know that I am a big fan of your work, but to the best of my knowledge, you have posted NONE of it for this year's statistics. So you have yet to release any rating with Duhon included publiclly.
> 
> ...


I think you are putting a lot of words into my mouth. I am making an argument for a methodology that I have described in gory detail in the past. I don't think that translates to "trust me, I am the expert." Relative to folks like Winston and Sagarin, I think I have worked pretty hard to remove the "black box" element of my rating system. I have described the basic system on my web-site. And I provided ratings for a past period to help folks evaluate the results. That is several orders of magnitude more than my peers (Winston and Sagarin) have done.

So I think it is terribly unfair when you claim that I say that my "magic black box indicates that no one should be able to make a compelling case that Curry is more valuable than Duhon." I am making an argument, just like other folks do on this board. I am not God, so when I say something, that does not make it so. So I am not sure how anything I have said can be construed to imply that no one else has anything to contribute to this discussion.


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## bullsville (Jan 23, 2005)

Well, so far in the series, Duhon is giving us 6 points, 9 rebounds and 6.5 assists vs only 2 TO per game in only 33.5 minutes. 

How long before people start comparing him to Jason Kidd?


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

Dan Rosenbaum said:


> I think you are putting a lot of words into my mouth. I am making an argument for a methodology that I have described in gory detail in the past. I don't think that translates to "trust me, I am the expert." Relative to folks like Winston and Sagarin, I think I have worked pretty hard to remove the "black box" element of my rating system. I have described the basic system on my web-site. And I provided ratings for a past period to help folks evaluate the results. That is several orders of magnitude more than my peers (Winston and Sagarin) have done.


I appreciated your sharing the information last year. Why not provide it again this year? Was there a stong correlation between players result's last year and again this year? 

You claim that Duhon is ranking higher than Curry this year but provide zero context. Again, I would be interested in knowing how both of these players rank amoung other players on the Bulls and around the league. Winston and Sagrin aren't on these boards touting players based upon their system. 



Dan Rosenbaum said:


> So I think it is terribly unfair when you claim that I say that my "magic black box indicates that no one should be able to make a compelling case that Curry is more valuable than Duhon." I am making an argument, just like other folks do on this board. I am not God, so when I say something, that does not make it so. So I am not sure how anything I have said can be construed to imply that no one else has anything to contribute to this discussion.


I think the issue is that you have a private statisticaly-based ratings system that you place much value on and at the same time make bold statements without explaining if they are personal, subjective opinions or your private, statistical system's results or somewhere in between.

Examples:

"Curry looks a lot more like Zach Randolph than Jermaine O'Neal"

"What Duhon is doing as a rookie is remarkable. Rookies just do not play defense the way he does and have the effect on a team like he does."

Comparing Curry to James Jones

----------------------------------
p.s. As you believe that I have put words in your mouth in my previous posts, I will take an extra effort to quote you directly from this point forward.


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## BealeFarange (May 22, 2004)

Oh, come on Bullsville, Duhon's a far better shooter than Jason Kidd... :biggrin:

Du!!!!


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## Marcus13 (Jul 17, 2002)

Chicago Bulls Updated:04/18/2005 
The Bulls intend to do everything in their power to re-sign rookie Chris Duhon, who becomes a restricted free agent this offseason. The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Duhon is playing for the rookie minimum of $385,000. 


-CBS Sports


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## rosenthall (Aug 1, 2002)

That's good to hear. Do you have a link Marcus? (Not that I don't trust you )


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## TripleDouble (Jul 26, 2002)

rosenthall said:


> That's good to hear. Do you have a link Marcus? (Not that I don't trust you )


Here's the link.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/nba/story/NBA_SC-RUMOR


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## TomBoerwinkle#1 (Jul 31, 2002)

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune...sbits,1,5662855.story?coll=cs-bulls-headlines



> The Bulls went 47-26 after coach Scott Skiles inserted Duhon into the starting lineup Nov. 24 at Utah.
> 
> Paxson has said he plans to match all offers made this summer to Duhon, a restricted free agent. Currently making the NBA minimum of $385,277, Duhon probably will command a multiyear deal in the three-year, $6 million range.


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