# 2005 Duke Blue Devils



## c_zalud (Feb 29, 2004)

How good will the Blue Devils be next year if Livingston and Deng come back?

I think they will be No. 1 for almost all of the year even though the ACC is stacked.


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

if its one or the other i think deng staying would obviously make the bigger impact. they would have a guard rotation or ewing, redick, dockery and demarcus nelson. their frontcourt of deng and williams would be backed up by randolph. like i have said before their bigs need to learn how to stay on the court without getting into foul trouble. imagine having shavlik randolph as a backup. he will eventually be a top 15 type pick in the draft.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Dukies*

Deng isn't a 4. Randolph has shown very little. Even in the UCONN game, he only had one good play. The other times it was his teammates who did all the work for him. All he had to do was lay it in uncontested. Williams is a good shot blocker but has shown little against other powerful frontlines.

They will be a good team but not preseason #1 with that front line.

I personally do not think any team should start a season #1 with a freshman pointguard as well.


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

i really dont think people have seen the best of randolph. he was like 6 for 6 against uconn and there was no indication that they were going to slow him down. too many fouls called both ways destroyed that game. show me how many 6-10 guys can block shots like him and have his footwork in the post. he needs to continue to get stronger but i think he'll get himself drafted pretty high after his senior year. if he were from serbia people would be drooling all over him.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*here's a name for you*

Hilton Armstrong blocked Williams shot 3 times in a row (3rd one called a foul even though it wasn't). He's 6'10". How about Josh Boone? Charlie?

All 3 of those guys are better than or as good as Shavlik. 

Shavlik had one good move in that game. All the rest were lightly contested layups or dunks. On the boards, Boone dominated him. He is not a tough player. 


Could he turn out to be good? Sure. Has he showed any indication he will be? No, he plays the game softly.

As far as UCONN not slowing him down, thats laughable. If Shavlik is a potential lottery pick, he has to be able to show SOMETHING against Okafor. Instead, he showed nothing in the second half.


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## ThePhenom (Apr 1, 2004)

Shavlik's play in the semifinal was nowhere near as good as it was made out to be. It was penetration and good passing by Duhon and Ewing that gave him some easy dunks. The only play Shavlik did on his own was the one where Okafor was trying to swat his shot and Randolph threw it up at the basket and it went in.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Exactly*

Thanks for not seeing the game with "Dickie V" glasses on Phenom.


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## ThePhenom (Apr 1, 2004)

*Re: here's a name for you*



> Originally posted by <b>sov82</b>!
> As far as UCONN not slowing him down, thats laughable. If Shavlik is a potential lottery pick, he has to be able to show SOMETHING against Okafor. Instead, he showed nothing in the second half.


He showed he knew how to foul him.


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## OZZY (Jun 14, 2002)

Duke will be no better than any other of the ACC teams. Maryland, UNC, Wake and GT also have almost everyone coming back next year.


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## anonymous expert (Apr 1, 2004)

The ACC will end up having 5 of the top 10, maybe 5 of the top 7 or 8 in the nation next year, that is amazing!!


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>OZZY</b>!
> Duke will be no better than any other of the ACC teams. Maryland, UNC, Wake and GT also have almost everyone coming back next year.


they were the best in the acc this year and have virtually everyone back so how are they going to be no better than the rest, explain that one to me.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Well...*

Well you could argue that Duke wasn't the best. They lost in the ACC Tournament and GT made it further in the NCAAs .


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## Hollis (Jun 4, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>rainman</b>!
> 
> 
> they were the best in the acc this year and have virtually everyone back so how are they going to be no better than the rest, explain that one to me.


Virtually everyone back, except they lose possibly the greatest PG of the last 20 years....


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>rainman</b>!
> * imagine having shavlik randolph as a backup. he will eventually be a top 15 type pick in the draft.*


I don't see this happening as he is still way too soft. He has moves, but he doesn't really have any toughness around the hoop. He is not the next coming of Mike Dunleavy. He is a PF, who is weak in the paint and his face up game isn't strong enough to make up for his weak moves in the paint. He will more than likely be a 2nd round pick. He has been passed up by many of his HS contemparies since his career began at Duke. If you were talking about Paul Davis then I agree, but not Randolph.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

I honestly don't think Duke will slip too far next year. Duhon is their only major loss. I think some may be underestimating Duke's talent and Coach K himself.

Possible lineup:

PG: Livingston
SG: Ewing
SF: Reddick
PF: Deng
C: Williams

Bench:
F/C Randolph
G Dockery
G Nelson
G/F Melchionni
G/F McClure
F/C Johnson

Even w/o Livingston, this is still a very, very good college team.


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## deranged40 (Jul 18, 2002)

> Virtually everyone back, except they lose possibly the greatest PG of the last 20 years....


 Surely you're joking Hollis.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Duhon*

He was on the Wooden Team!!! Shaun can only hope to be that good someday!


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## texan (Jul 10, 2003)

livingston aint comin to duke. so we can jus throw that out the window. they will still be a top 10 team and will start the season ranked about 3 or 4 spots too high jus like usual. their line up should look like

pg demarcus nelson
sg daniel ewing
sf jj redick
pf luol deng
c shelden williams

backups: sean dockery, shav randolph

thats about it. their problem again is that they only go 7 deep and they have a freshman pg leadin them.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*That lineup*

That lineup is hardly a top 10 lineup. 

Inexperienced Point Guard
Average Shooting Guard
A Guard playing Small Forward
A Small Forward Playing Power Forward
Foul Proned Undersized Center

No Depth at all. 

If thats their team, they should come in around 15 in the preseason rankings. As stupid as this may sound, but without Duhon this year, Duke was only a top 20 team. With him, they were in the top 8.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

*Re: That lineup*



> Originally posted by <b>sov82</b>!
> Inexperienced Point Guard
> Average Shooting Guard
> A Guard playing Small Forward
> ...


Amazing. No bias here, whatsoever.


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## texan (Jul 10, 2003)

they should be a top 10 preseason team but if livingston doesnt come then def. not a top 5 or 6 team. i would put them at number 8.


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Hong Kong Fooey</b>!
> 
> 
> I don't see this happening as he is still way too soft. He has moves, but he doesn't really have any toughness around the hoop. He is not the next coming of Mike Dunleavy. He is a PF, who is weak in the paint and his face up game isn't strong enough to make up for his weak moves in the paint. He will more than likely be a 2nd round pick. He has been passed up by many of his HS contemparies since his career began at Duke. If you were talking about Paul Davis then I agree, but not Randolph.


my projection is based on the possibility that he continues to get stronger and improve. i'm not saying he is a top 15 pick this year or even next but i look at a lot of guys who have been mid first round picks like michael bradley,marcus haislip,paul grant,bostjan nachbar who i dont think posess the ability of a shavlik randolph. the word here is upside, we'll see.


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## bender (Jul 15, 2002)

*Re: Dukies*



> Originally posted by <b>sov82</b>!
> I personally do not think any team should start a season #1 with a freshman pointguard as well.


Why not? Livingston will be the best freshman in country next year, if he wants to. A player like that shouldn't coming of the bench.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Didnt say...*

I didnt say he shouldn't start. I said that a team with a freshman pointguard shouldn't start the season at #1. That doesn't mean a team with a freshman point guard can't win it all...but they shouldn't be the favorite. 

My points on Duke still stand. Do you really think JJ Redick is a small forward? Do you really think any of the Dukies pointguards next year will be experienced? Do you really think Deng is a power forward instead of a 3? Isn't a 6'8" center undersized? You really think Ewing is anything but average for an ACC Shooting guard? Do you really think they have depth?

You can argue that their team should be higher ranked than 15. But all my points are valid.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

*Re: That lineup*



> Originally posted by <b>sov82</b>!
> T
> If thats their team, they should come in around 15 in the preseason rankings. As stupid as this may sound, but without Duhon this year, Duke was only a top 20 team. With him, they were in the top 8.


I am a Duke fan I think they are going to have a down year (relative to being at the top of the rankings). I think people will finally realize how valuable Chris Duhon was at the college level. The only reason why he was overrated in college, because you can see that he has more talent than he shows but he is just not assertive enough. However, he controlled the tempo of the ball-games he played in and set the tone for Duke's perimeter defense. DeMarcus Nelson is not a PG (at least not yet) and I have no confidence in Sean Dockery (he stinks and has shown me nothing on the offensive side of the ball) becoming a great PG on the college level.

Fact is Duke needs Livingston to be a top 10 team and if they lose Deng and Livingston then Duke would finish 5-6 in the league because Georgia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, UNC and Virginia would all have more talent returning and equal if not better coming in. I was dead on with my prediction for Indiana, Michigan State, Notre Dame, California and Arizona State having poor seasons, but of the teams that did well this year I think Gonzaga and Duke are primed to have down years.


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## jaimedun34 (Jun 19, 2003)

Nelson will NOT start at point guard if Livingston doesn't come to Duke. Dockery and Ewing would both start at PG before Nelson.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Hong Kong*

Thank you Hong Kong for being a real basketball fan. I'm a UCONN fan and while some people are calling for them to be at the top of the rankings, they too will have a freshman pointguard (or a sophmore with only pre-bigeast games under his belt).

These teams could end up being very very good. But to start them in the top 5 or even the top 10 would be a reach at this point. They both have tons of talent but neither are sure thing final four teams.

Could they get there? Sure. UCONN is going to be a beast inside and has some outside shooting. Duke will have some very elite prospects on their team if everyone comes back. However, each has far too many question marks to annoit them in the top 10 to start the season.

Time and time again, we have seen that talent doesn't equal championship. There must be a team flow and understanding before talent leads to championships.


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## kevo (Apr 13, 2004)

Ok, as a disclaimer, I am a huge duke fan and I also am going to duke, so this may be somewhat biased, however I think all my points are pretty true. 

First off, I think its ridiculous (sov82) to say that dukes lineup is not a top ten lineup. You need to take dukes lineup with perspective to other teams. Your critism of Sheldon being too small just isn't true in college basketball. If you were talking of the NBA, i would understand your point, but the most dominant big men in college basketball are around his size. He is built like a monster. (Okafor is only 6'9, Sean May is 6'8, so I just don't see your point- even Mike Sweetney a year ago was pretty small-they all were/are unstoppable centers). Furthermore, the only guy I can think of who may be able to give Williams size trouble is Schensher, but he still has a lot of work to do before he can consistently stop the likes of Williams. Your argument against Deng holds some ground, but I don't think all that much. Again, you have to look at the devils in comparison to other college teams. Most other teams don't have 2 dominant big men, a few do, but not in the ACC. So I think the vast majority of the time, deng will be able to stop a PF on other teams. If he can't, however, theres still always Shavlik Randolph who can step in and play the PF spot and bump deng down to his true SF spot. Furthermore, look at it from teh other angle of Deng will also have a huge offensive mismatch if he is guarded by a bigger PF, not many of them will be able to stop him. (Add to the fact that he was a predicted top 5 pick this year- i think 95% of college basketball players won't be able to contain him offensively or defensively no matter what position he's at because hes just so damn good). Your argument against Redick is true, he shouldn't be playing the SF. However, theres a few things that I think make this point not matter. First, look to the fact that duke did the same thing this year (starting three guards) and it served them pretty well. Second, theres the offensive mismatch created. And third, if he's being beaten up defensively, theres the freshman David McClure who can come in off the bench, or, duke can just play a bigger lineup, with randolph, williams and deng as the forward. Calling Daniel Ewing an average shooting guard i think is ridiculous, the man can shoot just about as well as Redick and also is an amazing penetrator- he can take any game over when he wants to- i think very few people will be able to stop him this year. And finally, true, Livingston is inexperienced. But, i'd take a guy who was a predicted top 5 pick this year as my starting point guard any day of the week, regardless of how inexperienced he is. I haven't seen him play, but hell, if he's experienced enough to start in the nba, hes experienced enough to start on my team. Furthermore, I think when it comes down to it, a lot of teams aren't that experienced (North Carolina has won what, one NCAA tournament game) and also, the rest of the team is experienced as any team out there. If theres too much pressure at the end of the game or something, duke can always take livingston out and play ewing at the point with redick, deng, randolph, and williams, or even dockery, who is an amazing defender. 

So that was kind of long winded, but I think that as long as Livingston comes to duke, which his grandfather says he is, Duke should be #1 in the preseason, if livingston isn't at duke, we're still easily a top 10 team.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Duke*

Josh Boone, UCONN's starting center next year, shut down Deng when he was on him. Thats a 5 playing a 3. Deng just isn't that explosive of a player. He has alot of moves, but overall isn't explosive to really take advantage of precieved mismatches. I expect Deng to be good next year, but I really feel he is overrated in the grand scheme of things. He does most things well...but doesn't excel at one thing. Great players always have had that "one thing they do better than everyone else". What is that for Deng?


If Shaun comes, thats a huge boost for Duke. However, your comment that he would be starting for an NBA team next year if he goes isn't true. If he was drafted, he would be like Darko this year. It will take Shaun awhile to learn Duke's system and he doesn't have another true point to learn from. (Unlike Duhon, Unlike Williams, Unlike....)

Ewing is an average shooting guard in the ACC. He can hit the open shot but has yet to show he can take over a game. He most certainly isn't a point either. He is probably the 4th best shooting guard in the ACC.


Dockery may be a good defensive player but does nothing on offense. He can't shoot and he can't drive. If he can do one of those things well next year, he would be an asset to the team.

Shavlik and Williams are nothing special. Shavlik plays soft and Williams is 6'8". If Williams was 6'8" and stronger than he is, then he could be an impact player. He's an good off ball shot blocker but he isn't an impact player. If you get a body on him, he doesn't score. May is also undersized. He does have some short jumpers that help him out. May isn't a dominate player either. He is a very good player, but not dominate.

Redick has yet to prove he can be an consistent factor in big time games and/or hit the big time shot. He's an excellent shooter when squared up but I question how open he'll get next year with a Freshman pointguard running the show.

Duke also lacks overall depth.

All that being said, Duke is a good team. Don't get me wrong. They are. Could they make the final four next year? Sure, they are probably 1 of the 15 teams that could make it next year. Should they be in the top 10 to start the season. In my opinion, no.


One last point...who on Duke's team do you expect to really improve next year? I dont see any of those kids who played well this season coming in and being a star next year. Deng will probably bump up a little next year but other than that, I dont see any of the other guy's stats changing too much.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Deng...*

One more thing about Duke & Deng.

Duke can create mismatches for Deng if he ends up with a smaller 3 on him. The only way this happens is if Shavlik and Williams are good enough to play together AND stay out of foul trouble. If they can do that, they are a top 8 team. I just dont see that happening.

PG: Shaun
SG: Redick/Ewing
SF: Deng
PF: Shavlik
C: Williams

Thats a top 8 team (assuming Shavlik and Williams can play well next year)

PG: Shaun
SG: Ewing
SF: Redick
PF: Deng
C: Williams

Thats a top 15 team. I lean towards the 2nd team because Shavlik has shown little and Williams showed he couldn't stay out of foul trouble.


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## kevo (Apr 13, 2004)

Sure, Boone did shut down Deng last year, but i'm not sure how many teams have an opportunity to put a guy who's as good as Boone on Deng on a consistent basis, and just about everybody else he faced he did well against. Also, I don't think its necessarily true that great players need to have one standout quality (Carmelo is who i'm coming up with now--i can't think of any standout quality he has??), hes just very, very good in every aspect of the game. I think thats enough for him to dominate the college game, just like Melo did a few years back. You're right, Livingston probably won't be starting, but that's mainly because he isn't built yet for the NBA. Kids like Lebron and others have can straight from HS to the NBA and handled the pressure fine; I think LIvingston could do the same- hes dealt with pressure in high school I'm sure, and like i said, if the pressure gets to be too much at teh end of some games, theres always Dockery who can come in, or duke can play a larger lineup w/ Ewing at the point. I think statwise, its true that Ewing is an average shooting guard in the ACC, but I think thats more so because K didn't really need him to be the offensive weapon that he can be-but when K needed Ewing to take over games, Ewing did. He can penetrate and dish, he can finish, and he can shoot (he can dribble too). I think this year, he'll be taking games over on a more consistent basis and you'll see him blossom. Its true that Dockery can't do **** on offense, maybe we'll get lucky next year and he can do something, but defensively, he can still come in and play a few quality minutes each game, and duke can just rely on the other 4 guys offensively. 

I think that Williams is a difference maker. Defensively this year, he'd take up the lane (granted, he had to be on the court) he could block shots and he is one hell of a rebounder. Offensively, I think hes a difference maker too. He has good footwork on the low post, and a nice touch. Randolph definitely has the potential to be a difference maker as well. i think towards the end of the year, that came out in him. Sure, he still was a little timid, but he definitely was growing more comfortable on the court- i see no reason why that isn't going to continue into next year, and he'll blossom into a solid player. If May isn't a dominant center in college this year, I challenge you to name one. There aren't that many good huge guys. Furthermore, you can't just forget the likes of Okafor whos only that height, and Sweetney, who I think was that height too. 

I think the biggest question that comes with duke for this season is their depth. However, I don't think theres any question about their depth at the guard slot... between Livingston, Redick, Ewing, Nelson, Dockery... thats depth that I think very very few teams can match. Their depth up front is the big question. I think theres 4 guys who can play up front... McClure, Deng, Williams, and Randolph. Williams and Randolph did get in foul trouble sometimes this year, but I think that people think they did way more than they did because of the uconn game. Yes, there were games that they got in foul trouble, but I think thats something they'll improve on. I think that is a ton of overall depth, last year there 7 guys who got consistent playing minutes, and this year there could be 9? Most teams can't match that depth.

They do have some questions about the team, its fine if you see them as unresolved, I think its pretty clear that the questions are essentially nullified though. Also, I think there's holes that can be created with any team predicted in the top 10.

I think there will be lots of improvements from guys on the current team. Randolph, for starters, will improve a whole hell of a lot over the offseason I think- hes gaining his confidence back after his injury, and he definitly has shown that he has the talent to be a very very good big man. I think that Ewing will also improve- not necessarily because hes better, but I think he'll be asked to play more of a role in the offense, so his talents will be showcased more. I also think, and I know a lot of people disagree, but Redick won't be very one-dimensional next year. Towards the end of this season (especially when he wasn't shooting well in the ACC tournament), he definitely was being more aggressive with the ball, taking it to the hole a lot more. If he can get better at doing that, that creates a hell of a lot of problems for opposing defenses to try to deal with. 

I guess the point where we differ is i think that second lineup is better than just top 15- i don't know of any starting lineups that can really match that... but i agree that the first lineup probably won't be able to be on the floor that often, not necessarily because of foul trouble, but it could be other factors as well. 

I think the other thing to keep in mind is that coach K has always played a relatively small type of basketball that relies on good shooting... he's never had the strongest frontcourts in the nation, they're just good enough to get it done, which is what I think they'll have this year.


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## FGators (Apr 13, 2004)

I think Wake Forest is going to be the best basketball team in the ACC next year with their backcourt. Expect Chris Paul to be the player of the year in college basketball next year.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Boone Example*

I gave the Boone example to illustrate how I think Deng lacks explosiveness that is necessary to be a star. If Deng plays the 4, he is purely a perimeter player. If Deng plays the 3, he can post up his man.

I dont think Deng showed this year that he can do both in one game against a quality opponent.


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