# It's never fun to predict this, but who will be the biggest lottery bust?



## NBADraftWorld (Apr 16, 2006)

Rather than make a poll, I'll leave this open for more discussion. Let's try to stick to only lottery projected players though.


My pick? He's a borderline lottery pick, but I think Shelden Williams is going to struggle in the league. He's not going to be bigger than everybody in the NBA like he was in college, and his athletic ability doesn't exactly make your jaw drop. He still has a good defensive presence and should block a few shots, but I really think that he's hit his max in terms of development. Just my opinion though.


What do you guys think?


----------



## matt! (Feb 21, 2005)

I have two big ones: 
- Tyrus Thomas
and depending on who drafts him - Rudy Gay

I could see Rudy turning out to be an All-Star if he falls far enough. Just needs some motivation.


----------



## FSH (Aug 3, 2002)

Tyrus Thomas...Say hello to Darius Miles Junior


----------



## jworth (Feb 17, 2006)

Patrick O'Bryant, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Andrea Bargnani.


----------



## jworth (Feb 17, 2006)

Four_Season_Hustler said:


> Tyrus Thomas...Say hello to Darius Miles Junior


That's a interesting comparasion considering they're two completly different players.


----------



## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

Yeah, they might be the same height and both be very athletic, but Miles and Thomas are very different. Tyrus is a 4 in the league, Miles ideally is a point forward or if he really ever developed that shot he could have been a 2. Miles has a guard skill set, Thomas is definitely a big man.

Gotta be Patrick O'Bryant, he wasn't even very good in the Tournament in my opinion, very mechanical and unimpressive. And watching him get completely taken out of the MVC Championship Game by Southern Illinois doesn't help him either.


----------



## jsm27 (Jan 9, 2003)

If J.J. Redick goes in the lottery, he gets my vote. Going in the top 14 will place far more expectations of him than he is capable of meeting. I have always pegged him as a great fit on a playoff ready team to come in and shoot the lights out (a la Steve Kerr towards the end of his career). However, he is just that, a role player and a missing piece, and not someone you build a team around.

Maybe at the end of the lottery, to a team on the brink of the playoffs who is looking for a missing piece, he would fit in well and not be a bust. I think the Lakers could use him, but they need more talent on the team as well, not just one piece.


----------



## matt! (Feb 21, 2005)

jworth said:


> That's a interesting comparasion considering they're two completly different players.


Or maybe you should get off Thomas' jock for 2 seconds.

Is it possible that he was saying that Thomas has a lot of raw potential that he thinks will go unfufilled? Would you say that's what happened to Darius Miles?

Is it possible to compare the outcomes of players careers and not skillsets?

Guess not...


----------



## butr (Mar 23, 2004)

At this point, Rudy Gay.


----------



## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Morrison (relative to expectations - long term).


----------



## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

Four_Season_Hustler said:


> Tyrus Thomas...Say hello to Darius Miles Junior


 
I don't think that Thomas is going to turn into a world class dickhead.Miles is not a bust...He's just more trouble than he's worth.


----------



## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

Rudy Gay.


----------



## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

NBADraftWorld said:


> Rather than make a poll, I'll leave this open for more discussion. Let's try to stick to only lottery projected players though.
> 
> 
> My pick? He's a borderline lottery pick, but I think Shelden Williams is going to struggle in the league. He's not going to be bigger than everybody in the NBA like he was in college, and his athletic ability doesn't exactly make your jaw drop. He still has a good defensive presence and should block a few shots, but I really think that he's hit his max in terms of development. Just my opinion though.
> ...


i agree, based on where williams is projected(7,8,9) i dont know what he is going to bring to the nba besides hustle. he's undersized,cant step away from the basket and pretty much has been outplayed by every decent bigman he has ever gone up against. not a big fan of the dukies in this draft.


----------



## DANNY (Aug 9, 2005)

Bargani.. I smell Skita


----------



## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

dannyM said:


> Bargani.. I smell Skita



i'll give you redick but the footage i have seen of bargnani is very impressive. to pick some guy who i guess physically looks like someone else and compare the two doesnt make much sense to me.


----------



## jworth (Feb 17, 2006)

matt! said:


> Or maybe you should get off Thomas' jock for 2 seconds.
> 
> Is it possible that he was saying that Thomas has a lot of raw potential that he thinks will go unfufilled? Would you say that's what happened to Darius Miles?
> 
> ...


When I see Miles I see a guy who has been kicked off his team and has never gotten along with his coaches in the NBA. I see a guy who's a head case more than anything else and I don't see any correlation with that and Tyrus Thomas. As for the first comment, I don't know if guys in New Jersey go around blowing off other guys, but it's not that way around here. If I disagree with people because I think a player has game it's not because I'm like some guy that you may have encountered up there in the Northeast.


----------



## DANNY (Aug 9, 2005)

rainman said:


> i'll give you redick but the footage i have seen of bargnani is very impressive. to pick some guy who i guess physically looks like someone else and compare the two doesnt make much sense to me.


Footage doesn't prove much.. just look at... Skita


----------



## Saint Baller (May 3, 2006)

Reddick will be a bust


----------



## matt! (Feb 21, 2005)

jworth said:


> When I see Miles I see a guy who has been kicked off his team and has never gotten along with his coaches in the NBA. I see a guy who's a head case more than anything else and I don't see any correlation with that and Tyrus Thomas.


Read what I wrote. I didn't say anything about being a headcase, although for as much publicity as he's gotten in such a short time, I wouldn't be surprised if his ego inflated really quick. Ego wasn't a problem when Miles came into the league, either.

But I think that the original poster was saying that he would resemble miles in that he had all of this athletic potential, and then proceded to do jack**** with it.



> As for the first comment, I don't know if guys in New Jersey go around blowing off other guys, but it's not that way around here. If I disagree with people because I think a player has game it's not because I'm like some guy that you may have encountered up there in the Northeast.


I mean, what the ****? Totally uncalled for. 

You have totally fellatiated Tyrus Thomas with the written word every time I've seen you post on this board. That's where that came from. I didn't say anything about blowing guys (although your mind seemed immediately drawn to that...)


----------



## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

dannyM said:


> Footage doesn't prove much.. just look at... Skita


i never saw any footage of sktishville(i dont think he even played for his pro team). the one i did see some tape on was darko. by the way you put darko in this draft and he probably goes 1st so go figure. as for bargnani i think that is why you send scouts over there to see him. obviously we arent going to have too much to go on but you have to trust a scout's opinion. if by some chance you are comparing him to skita because he's white all i can say is maybe he's larry bird.


----------



## HB (May 1, 2004)

Depending on how early Saer Sene gets drafted, it probably is a safe bet to say he will be a bust.


----------



## pmac34 (Feb 10, 2006)

WTChan said:


> Rudy Gay.


come again?


----------



## pmac34 (Feb 10, 2006)

Bargnani is like nothing weve seen. he can shoot the 3, put the ball on the floor, doesnt have Dirk's soft touch though. he can make some acrobatic layups at 7'0", and looks to have a good build (maybe 230-240 lbs)


----------



## ATCQ (Jun 16, 2005)

pmac34 said:


> Bargnani is like nothing weve seen. he can shoot the 3, put the ball on the floor, doesnt have Dirk's soft touch though. he can make some acrobatic layups at 7'0", and looks to have a good build (maybe 230-240 lbs)


like nothing we've ever seen? aren't there 1 or 2 of these big Euro guys (who can supposedly shoot the 3 and put the ball on the floor like a PG) every single year? how many actually work out...


----------



## cv3bandwagon (Mar 16, 2006)

The difference between Bargnani and all those other guys is that Bargnani actually contributes at a high level to his team. Not many guys lhis age contribute like he dose at the Euroleauge level.

I thinkt he biggest bust in this years lottery will be Tryus Thomas. I think he's pretty overhyped and is destined to be the next Stromile Swift. Next to him I can see Marcus Williams being a close secound, he's so overhyped just becasue he's the best point guard in this draft. He'll be solid but not as even near what he should be for where he'll be drafted.


----------



## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

My pick goes to Morrison and Tyrus. 

Andrea is nothing like Skita. Skita averaged 1.4ppg and 1rpg in the same league that Andrea is not tearing up. It is simply a terrible comparison, both are 7 feet tall and white europeans. Thats as far as the comparisons can go. Andrea is a much better shooter, and a better defender/shotblocker. Also, I would take Darko over anyone in this draft.


----------



## jmk (Jun 30, 2002)

JJ Redick, Shelden Williams, Adam Morrison, and if he continues to never figure it out, Rudy Gay.


----------



## BDMcGee (May 12, 2006)

To me it's clearly Tyrus Thomas. He was good, but he never dominated in college. He averaged 12 points per game and is considered one of the candidates to go #1 overall? Some feel that he has a big upside, but I just can't see it. If he works his butt off he could be a poor mans Kenyon Martin, but I really think that's his ceiling.


----------



## jworth (Feb 17, 2006)

matt! said:


> I mean, what the ****? Totally uncalled for.
> 
> You have totally fellatiated Tyrus Thomas with the written word every time I've seen you post on this board. That's where that came from. I didn't say anything about blowing guys (although your mind seemed immediately drawn to that...)


I'm high on Tyrus Thomas' game. I won't deny that and don't need to. If the subject is the draft then there's nothing holding back from talking about one of this year's top prospects. And with this being a NBA Draft Forum it's a given that his name will be mentioned. The way you're acting is like going into a Chicago forum and telling everyone to get off the Bulls' jock. If this were the NBA Playoffs Forum or NBA General Forum then I'm sure you would see me mention other players' names as well. 



matt! said:


> Read what I wrote. I didn't say anything about being a headcase, although for as much publicity as he's gotten in such a short time, I wouldn't be surprised if his ego inflated really quick. Ego wasn't a problem when Miles came into the league, either.


You said that perhaps the comparasion of Tyrus to Miles is the way that Miles' career has played out. My answer to that is/was: Miles has underachieved in the NBA due to his being a headcase. I don't see that problem being a factor in how Thomas' career turns out, so if Thomas never lives up to his potential then it would be more fitting for him to be compared to someone whose game just never panned out in the League—not someone who has struggled because they were a headcase with attitude problems.


----------



## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

the thing that would concern me about thomas is first of all his attitude, i've heard him address the media a couple of times and he is already acting like the zach randoph and kenyon martins of the world. if that's what your looking for fine, it wouldnt be for me. another thing is like a lot of guys that are a decent size to play the 4 in college like a hakim warrick when they get to the pros they are too small for the 4 and have to try to move their game out a ways. he certainly has the athletecism to be a top level pro and the way the game is played nowadays that is sometimes enough to get by but if i'm picking in the top 4 or 5 i'm going in a differant direction. thats just my take.


----------



## Avalanche (Nov 17, 2005)

bargnani would be my pick
how many "the next dirk"s have actually turned out to be so?
i think he'll be another euro with huge potential, taken too high and never developing into the star he 'should' have been


----------



## AMΣRICAN GOD™ (Jun 4, 2005)

somehow, isiah thomas.


----------



## matt! (Feb 21, 2005)

jworth said:


> You said that perhaps the comparasion of Tyrus to Miles is the way that Miles' career has played out. My answer to that is/was: Miles has underachieved in the NBA due to his being a headcase. I don't see that problem being a factor in how Thomas' career turns out, so if Thomas never lives up to his potential then it would be more fitting for him to be compared to someone whose game just never panned out in the League—not someone who has struggled because they were a headcase with attitude problems.


Fair enough. 

Stromile Swift or Marcus Fizer then?


----------



## jworth (Feb 17, 2006)

matt! said:


> Fair enough.
> 
> Stromile Swift or Marcus Fizer then?


Fizer would be a good comparasion in that he was great at the college level but his physical attributes haven't given him that same advantage in the NBA. And Swift could be a good comparasion as well if Tyrus lets his athleticism go to waste by being lazy and not adding more to his raw game. I can see both of those comparasions working especially if Thomas' game just doesn't pan out in the NBA.


----------



## NBADraftWorld (Apr 16, 2006)

jworth said:


> Fizer would be a good comparasion in that he was great at the college level but his physical attributes haven't given him that same advantage in the NBA. And Swift could be a good comparasion as well if Tyrus lets his athleticism go to waste by being lazy and not adding more to his raw game. I can see both of those comparasions working especially if Thomas' game just doesn't pan out in the NBA.



Very true. Fizer came out as a big body with a solid low post game, but his athleticism wasn't even close to where Thomas is at right now. Fizer was more like an Antoine Walker in that it didn't seem like his game was played above the court, which is exactly the opposite of Tyrus.


----------



## matt! (Feb 21, 2005)

jworth said:


> Fizer would be a good comparasion in that he was great at the college level but his physical attributes haven't given him that same advantage in the NBA. And Swift could be a good comparasion as well if Tyrus lets his athleticism go to waste by being lazy and not adding more to his raw game. I can see both of those comparasions working especially if Thomas' game just doesn't pan out in the NBA.


Although I don't buy on Thomas' overall skillset, thin Fizer would be a more accurate comparison. You don't go from not even being top-100 to being a starter on a Final Four team without being able to work hard and learn. I think Fizer is probably the best comparison, although Fizer was probably a little more refined and produced a lot more in college.


----------



## mo76 (Jun 13, 2003)

Why would you say Rudy Gay will be a bust when there are so many other potential busts in this draft? Rudy Gay is as NBA ready as they come. He may not be a superstar, but he will definately be a contributer. Look at drew gooden. He was a highly touted college recruit. He isnt a star in the L but not a bust.


----------



## jmk (Jun 30, 2002)

mo76 said:


> Why would you say Rudy Gay will be a bust when there are so many other potential busts in this draft? Rudy Gay is as NBA ready as they come. He may not be a superstar, but he will definately be a contributer. Look at drew gooden. He was a highly touted college recruit. He isnt a star in the L but not a bust.


Because Rudy isn't there mentally. Look at his skillset and athleticism and then compare it to his production. It's horrible.


----------



## BDMcGee (May 12, 2006)

rainman said:


> the thing that would concern me about thomas is first of all his attitude, i've heard him address the media a couple of times and he is already acting like the zach randoph and kenyon martins of the world. if that's what your looking for fine, it wouldnt be for me. another thing is like a lot of guys that are a decent size to play the 4 in college like a hakim warrick when they get to the pros they are too small for the 4 and have to try to move their game out a ways. he certainly has the athletecism to be a top level pro and the way the game is played nowadays that is sometimes enough to get by but if i'm picking in the top 4 or 5 i'm going in a differant direction. thats just my take.


Great post. I don't think his attitude will be a problem long-term. He's a bit immature, but he should improve upon that on the next level. As you said, the NBA is now being geared toward smaller players. More teams are using 3-4 guard lineups and short backcourts. Speed and athleticism is the name of the game now. That definitely benefits Tyrus Thomas. His problem is that he lacks skills. If he could step out and hit the 12-15 foot jumper consistently or create his own shot, he wouldn't have a problem. But at just 6'9 218 lbs., with no jumper, no post moves, and no ball handling skills he'll be a project in the league. I agree 100% with what you said. He's not a bad pick in the latter part of the lottery or mid-first round. But he's a roll of the dice pick, and if I'm a team picking in the top-5, I wouldn't even consider him.


----------



## mo76 (Jun 13, 2003)

Dark Knight said:


> Because Rudy isn't there mentally. Look at his skillset and athleticism and then compare it to his production. It's horrible.


Please, like everyone on this site hasnt heard that "Gay isnt there mentally" thing a million times. People were saying the exact same things but worse about charlie V. Gay will be a fine player in the NBA.


----------



## jworth (Feb 17, 2006)

BDMcGee said:


> But at just 6'9 218 lbs., *with no jumper*, no post moves, *and no ball handling skills * he'll be a project in the league.


Thomas has a jumper out to 17 feet and can put the ball on the floor. Where he needs to improve is in creating post moves down low.


----------



## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

jworth said:


> Thomas has a jumper out to 17 feet and can put the ball on the floor. Where he needs to improve is in creating post moves down low.


HAHAHAHA!!! Chad Ford. That's all I can think about when I read this. EVERY big man in the world, Chad goes "and he has a sweet jumper out to 17 feet." Yeah, in drills with no one guarding him, he might hit 40-45% and look decent, in the league he can't hit it. Not to say that he can't develop the midrange game, look at KG and Amare, but he'll REALLY have to work on it.


----------



## ehh (May 5, 2006)

I'd say Bargnini because like others have said, there are so many "the next Dirk" that are total flops. I also think Shelden Williams will be outta the NBA by 2009.

As for Gay, I think he'll be similar to his ex-teammate, Charlie Villanueva. Both have games much more suited for the NBA than college and anyone who wants to bring up the "mental issues" argument, Chucky V. had *way more* mental/hustle/consistency problems while at UConn than Gay ever had.


----------



## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

Thomas and Miles are nothing alike. Thomas has heart, while Miles is a complete waste of skin.


----------



## matt! (Feb 21, 2005)

mo76 said:


> Please, like everyone on this site hasnt heard that "Gay isnt there mentally" thing a million times. People were saying the exact same things but worse about charlie V. Gay will be a fine player in the NBA.


People also said this about a lot of other players, with incredible talent, who just looked like they didn't care. Sometimes, they end up like Charlie V. (although I think a lot of that had to do with where he was drafted) and some end up like Eddie Griffin.


----------



## nbanoitall (May 21, 2004)

dannyM said:


> Footage doesn't prove much.. just look at... Skita


or worse, Ivan the Terrible


----------



## bruno34115 (Apr 14, 2003)

BDMcGee said:


> Great post. I don't think his attitude will be a problem long-term. He's a bit immature, but he should improve upon that on the next level. As you said, the NBA is now being geared toward smaller players. More teams are using 3-4 guard lineups and short backcourts. Speed and athleticism is the name of the game now. That definitely benefits Tyrus Thomas. His problem is that he lacks skills. If he could step out and hit the 12-15 foot jumper consistently or create his own shot, he wouldn't have a problem. But at just 6'9 218 lbs., with no jumper, no post moves, and no ball handling skills he'll be a project in the league. I agree 100% with what you said. He's not a bad pick in the latter part of the lottery or mid-first round. But he's a roll of the dice pick, and if I'm a team picking in the top-5, I wouldn't even consider him.


Exactly.

And people comparing Bargnani to Skita is really starting to get annoying. Dude is one of the most polished Euro prospects in years. He produced on one of Europes top teams (unless im mistaken) where Skita was 12th man off the bench.


----------



## Burn (Feb 2, 2003)

jworth said:


> As for the first comment, I don't know if guys in New Jersey go around blowing off other guys, but it's not that way around here. If I disagree with people because I think a player has game it's not because I'm like some guy that you may have encountered up there in the Northeast.


quit playin dude, we all know only steers and *****s come out of texas


----------



## Burn (Feb 2, 2003)

jk buddy


----------



## daytripper (Feb 22, 2004)

Jordan Farmar = Overrated.

Any team that selects him in the first round will be disappointed.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Marcus Williams, he's 220lbs and growing. Wait, was "biggest" in reference to height or mass?


----------

