# Rhyder's 08-09 Weekly Power Rankings



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I began sharing my Power Ranking system in 05-06, and I will continue to do so again this season. For those of you who have forgotten, are now interested this year, or are new to the boards, please read on...

The numbers you will see listed below are the number of pure points I expect a team to win by assuming completely neutral conditions. This is designed as an efficiency rating based only on results from this year only. The logic of my own ratings closely resembles Sagarin's PREDICTOR rating which can be found here.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0809.htm

I use point differential to determine future success, not wins. To demonstrate the difference in logic, suppose you have two teams, A and B. Team A is 0-4 and Team B is 2-2. A fan can go to the standings in the newspaper and make the assumption that Team B is better than Team A. However, Team A has lost four games by 1 point each against tough competition. Team B has two 1-point wins against other easy teams and has gotten blown out by 20 in its two losses against only average teams. Team A probably stands to rate better than team B in my system.

I do discount garbage time, as I do not feel that a team's #8-12 vs. another's 8-12 would help predict anything in the future. Injuries are also not discounted in the normalized data. That means the moment Manu Ginobili comes back to the Spurs, they should be a better team with him in the lineup than what my ratings indicate at the time. However, from a Power Ranking perspective, I feel that results from the entire season should be factored in.

I apply my own strength of schedule, pace, etc. factors to these normalized data to come up with my own line for NBA games. When I post my ratings each week, I usually share my best bet of the evening assuming I have the time to do so.

I arbitrarily picked a starting point of 10 games played before I started making wagers. I say arbitrarily because my starting point is based on "feel" of when the numbers start to normalize based on performance. However, I am in the process of collecting data over the seasons to see if there is "better" starting point.

*DISCLAIMER: I expect my system to work over time, not for a single game. If you bet actual money on my recommendation, I claim no responsibility for the results. I post these for information, fun, and can be used in the vBookie portion of the site if you wish.*


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I did not have time to update the data after last night's games, so this is from games completed Tuesday evening or earlier:

01.	LAL	15.3
02.	PHO	13.0
03.	PHI	10.7
04.	TOR	9.8
05.	ATL	9.5
06.	UTA	8.1
07.	CLE	6.9
08.	IND	6.9
09.	DET	6.4
10.	BOS	5.2
11.	NOH	5.0
12.	DEN	4.7
13.	HOU	3.7
14.	ORL	1.1
15.	MIA	1.0
16.	DAL	1.0
17.	MEM	0.3
18.	MIL	0.0
19.	CHI	-2.6
20.	MIN	-2.6
21.	SAS	-3.5
22.	OKC	-5.7
23.	GSW	-5.9
24.	CHA	-8.5
25.	NJN	-10.0
26.	WAS	-10.1
27.	NYK	-11.5
28.	POR	-13.2
29.	LAC	-16.6
30.	SAC	-16.6


Most Overrated (the teams I expect to come down in rating moving forward)
1. LAL
2. UTA
3. NOH

Most Underrated (the teams I expect to move up most in rating moving forward)
1. PHO
2. DEN
3. LAC


Interesting Note: Chicago is about 3 points overrated in my system. This means I expect them to come down a couple of spots if they do not improve their play and everything else remains constant.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder, I'm your #1 fan. Thanks for posting this and I look forward to more updates as the season goes on...!


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## yodurk (Sep 4, 2002)

Intersting that you have the Bulls that low. Sagarin has the Bulls predicted as #11 in the NBA -- probably a little far fetched, but in the right ballpark (IMO, I think we'll finish right in middle of the pack around #15 overall).

Another interesting note, the Bulls opponent difficulty thus far is ranked #2 most difficult in the whole league. I can't image this will change much until December or even January. Cavs twice, Boston, Orlando and Phoenix is pretty brutal. Honestly a 3-4 record is passable given the difficulty and how young our team is, how new the system is, etc (although 4-3 would be even better if we knocked out Cleveland the other night!).

Sagarin also has teams like the Knicks projected very low, despite good records so far. Knicks are 4-2, but their competition has been incredibly weak (25th most difficult). Jazz are 5-1 but ranked lower than us, since their competition is #1 weakest. Jazz are VERY lucky their schedule has been soft while Deron was out.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

yodurk said:


> Intersting that you have the Bulls that low. Sagarin has the Bulls predicted as #11 in the NBA -- probably a little far fetched, but in the right ballpark (IMO, I think we'll finish right in middle of the pack around #15 overall).
> 
> Another interesting note, the Bulls opponent difficulty thus far is ranked #2 most difficult in the whole league. I can't image this will change much until December or even January. Cavs twice, Boston, Orlando and Phoenix is pretty brutal. Honestly a 3-4 record is passable given the difficulty and how young our team is, how new the system is, etc (although 4-3 would be even better if we knocked out Cleveland the other night!).
> 
> Sagarin also has teams like the Knicks projected very low, despite good records so far. Knicks are 4-2, but their competition has been incredibly weak (25th most difficult). Jazz are 5-1 but ranked lower than us, since their competition is #1 weakest. Jazz are VERY lucky their schedule has been soft while Deron was out.


It also depends on when you look at the ratings. My rankings do not include the two losses against Cleveland or the big win against Phoenix. Thus, we were looking at opponents of Milwaukee, Boston, Memphis, and Orlando. If you look at the rating of those teams at that snapshot, you see that we only had a slightly more difficult than average schedule through the first four games.

Include the first seven, (add Cleveland twice and Phoenix once) and all of the sudden the schedule looks very tough. This is why I do not like to analyze the data, or find much meaning until after about 1/8 of the season is complete. It is still interesting to look at, however.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Friday edition this week as I did not get home until very late last evening and still had a Bulls game to watch on DVR.

For my surgers/slumpers portion, I am going to be doing a +/- change in rating, not rank, as it's usually the middle teams always shuffling around. This will now reflect a #1 ranked team moving even higher (or lower) without passing anyone the same as a #15 ranked team with a lot of teams close in rating to move past.

Results are as of Wednesday's completed games, so look for the Bulls to be higher after the Dallas victory:

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	LAL	16.5	1.2
02	ATL	10.3	0.7
03	PHO	7.9	-5.1
04	BOS	7.7	2.5
05	CLE	7.1	0.2
06	UTA	6.9	-1.2
07	ORL	5.5	4.4
08	IND	4.3	-2.5
09	MIA	4.0	3.0
10	NOH	2.7	-2.3
11	TOR	2.3	-7.4
12	PHI	1.7	-9.0
13	DEN	1.7	-3.1
14	DET	1.0	-5.4
15	HOU	-1.0	-4.6
16	MIL	-1.0	-1.0
17	DAL	-1.0	-2.0
18	CHI	-1.5	1.0
19	MEM	-1.8	-2.1
20	SAS	-3.3	0.1
21	NYK	-4.1	7.4
22	SAC	-4.1	12.5
23	POR	-5.2	8.0
24	GSW	-5.5	0.5
25	MIN	-6.3	-3.7
26	NJN	-7.0	3.1
27	CHA	-7.6	0.8
28	OKC	-7.7	-2.0
29	LAC	-9.5	7.0
30	WAS	-11.6	-1.5

*Surgers*
Sacramento +12.5
Portland +8.0
New York +7.4

*Slumpers*
Philadelphia -9.0
Toronto -7.4
Detroit -5.4

*Most Overrated*
Los Angeles Lakers
Charlotte
New Orleans

*Most Underrated*
Los Angeles Clippers
San Antonio
Phoenix


Note: All teams should have 10 games under their belts by next week, so I will be starting the weekly picks then.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Also, if anyone could show me how to post Excel tables on here, I could make the formatting a lot easier to read.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder, I remember you mentioning that at some point differential.. an NBA game is an advantage play for a prospective sport bettor given the game point spread. Also, do you account for home advantage (ie. home NFL teams are generally thought to get 3 points just for being at home)? I know you answered these questions before, sorry I forgot any of the answers...


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Rhyder, I remember you mentioning that at some point differential.. an NBA game is an advantage play for a prospective sport bettor given the game point spread. Also, do you account for home advantage (ie. home NFL teams are generally thought to get 3 points just for being at home)? I know you answered these questions before, sorry I forgot any of the answers...


First off, these rating are based upon neutral conditions. Strength of schedule, home court advantage, etc aren't a part of this. I make an adjustment to these ratings based on those factors to determine an actual line.

Home court advantage typically range between 3.0-3.5 ppg. From memory, it typically hangs around 3.2 ppg. I don't make a bet unless I see a 3.5+ ppg edge in what I expect the line to be from the actual line.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> First off, these rating are based upon neutral conditions. Strength of schedule, home court advantage, etc aren't a part of this. I make an adjustment to these ratings based on those factors to determine an actual line.
> 
> Home court advantage typically range between 3.0-3.5 ppg. From memory, it typically hangs around 3.2 ppg. I don't make a bet unless I see a 3.5+ ppg edge in what I expect the line to be from the actual line.


Thanks Rhyder. :clap:


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

Memphis over New York? After NY beat them less than a week ago? Doesn't make much sense. Other than that I can't complain, pretty solid set of rankings Rhyder.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

bball2223 said:


> Memphis over New York? After NY beat them less than a week ago? Doesn't make much sense. Other than that I can't complain, pretty solid set of rankings Rhyder.


My system analyzes efficiency over a total number of possessions of games played in the regular season. I then make adjustments based on a set of assumptions I have tested in about a 10-year sample.

Point being, New York could beat Boston four times, and Boston would still be rated higher if they were more efficient on their possessions the other 78 games of the season.

It also is possible to be less efficient in a game, and still win the game. A large difference in offensive rebounding or a major difference in FT% are the usual culprits.


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

Gotcha! Thanks for the clarification.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

bball2223 said:


> Gotcha! Thanks for the clarification.


No problem, and keep reading if you find it interesting. I update this weekly, and am always willing to answer questions outside of the specifics of the proprietary calculations I have discovered.

My hope is to one day work in sports statistics, so I tinker with this stuff in my free time while hopefully providing a fun way to look at the league for those that are interested.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 11/23:

I apologize for the delay, but I have been ill since the middle of last week.

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	LAL	8.86 - 
02	BOS	8.81 2 
03	CLE	8.08 2 
04	PHO	5.56 (1)
05	ORL	5.50 2 
06	MIA	3.05 3 
07	IND	3.02 1 
08	UTA	3.01 (2)
09	HOU	2.52 6 
10	NOH	2.43 - 
11	DAL	2.36 6 
12	DEN	2.36 1 
13	ATL	1.95 (11)
14	SAS	1.65 6 
15	PHI	1.26 (3)
16	POR	1.07 7 
17	TOR	-1.32 (6)
18	NYK	-1.43 3 
19	MIL	-1.67 (3)
20	GSW	-2.18 4 
21	DET	-2.25 (7)
22	CHI	-3.48 (4)
23	MIN	-3.51 2 
24	NJN	-3.58 2 
25	MEM	-4.08 (6)
26	SAC	-4.29 (4)
27	CHA	-6.76 - 
28	LAC	-7.43 1 
29	WAS	-9.61 1 
30	OKC	-11.31 (2)


*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Portland +6.32
San Antonio +4.99
Houston +3.47

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Atlanta -8.31
Lakers -7.66
Utah -3.89

*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Philadelphia
New Orleans

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Clippers
San Antonio


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

11/24 Bets of the Night


Houston (-3.5) @ Miami
I would pick Miami plus the 3.5

Chicago @ Utah (-6.5)
I would pick Utah minus the 6.5

Sacramento @ Portland (-11.5)
I would pick Sacramento plus the 11.5


NOTE: The first game (Houston @ Miami) is my only full unit bet of the night. I am only betting half a unit on the second two games. I always post my top three games whenever I do my power ranking update out of general interest for anyone following the thread.


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## Basel (Mar 31, 2005)

Good to see Lakers at #1. :biggrin:


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Basel57 said:


> Good to see Lakers at #1. :biggrin:


#1, but is also the team I expect to come down farthest in future rating. We shall see...


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 11/24 Bets of the Night
> 
> 
> Houston (-3.5) @ Miami
> ...


Ruh-roh!

I'm betting against Rhyder's system!

Oh well. As I recall, you're only right 60% of the time. And the statistics are less trustworthy this early in the season. Plus, Williams and Boozer are out, which you don't account for.....

So, I'll stand by my bet.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> Oh well. As I recall, you're only right 60% of the time.


True, but for full plays. I only see a little under 3 points of edge for Utah. In my 2.5 - 3.5 edge half-unit plays, they are only correct slightly under 55% of the time.



> And the statistics are less trustworthy this early in the season.


Also true.



> Plus, Williams and Boozer are out, which you don't account for.....


False. I don't account for them being out in my power rankings. For the handicapping of individual games, I do.



> So, I'll stand by my bet.


Good luck :banana-suit:


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> True, but for full plays. I only see a little under 3 points of edge for Utah. In my 2.5 - 3.5 edge half-unit plays, they are only correct slightly under 55% of the time.


Going against 55% ain't bad, and again, there's more variance at this time of the year, anyway.




> False. I don't account for them being out in my power rankings. For the handicapping of individual games, I do.


Whoa. Well, ignorance is bliss  And thanks for the wish of ruck! 

But I have a question, when you handicap individual games, we're talking about some kind of manual adjustment to your system. I mean, you can't have enough statistics to quantify the impact of missing Williams or Boozer, or for that matter, both at the same time.

The thing is right now that the Bulls are so unpredictable. Everything is unsettled, and I don't think any trends (except Rose and the wide open lane to the basket shown the other team) have really been established for them. 

So far, I've been doing ok just betting 50 points per game. I think I've won the bet every time but once. Those points will come in handy some day, I'm sure of it.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> But I have a question, when you handicap individual games, we're talking about some kind of manual adjustment to your system. I mean, you can't have enough statistics to quantify the impact of missing Williams or Boozer, or for that matter, both at the same time.


In missing Boozer, I had 2 full games + 12 games * 14 minutes worth of possessions to look at with Boozer out of the lineup (Boozer averaged 34 mpg through his first 12). That is almost six full games worth of possessions I had to observe.

True, it would not be as significant as using 14 full games worth of possessions, but there should be enough there to give a decent estimate. Yes, variance would be even higher here as well.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 11/24 Bets of the Night
> 
> 
> Houston (-3.5) @ Miami
> ...


Houston 107 - Miami 98 :azdaja:

Chicago 101 - Utah 100 :azdaja: (although I never mind losing a bet resulting in a Bulls win)

Sacramento 90 - Portland 91 eace:


08-09 Season record = 1-2


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/1:

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	10.82 2 
02	LAL	9.75 (1)
03	BOS	8.56 (1)
04	ORL	6.73 1 
05	PHO	5.45 (1)
06	POR	4.07 10 
07	DAL	3.54 4 
08	UTA	2.85 - 
09	DEN	2.64 3 
10	ATL	2.53 3 
11	HOU	2.34 (2)
12	SAS	2.07 2 
13	NOH	2.00 (3)
14	IND	1.53 (7)
15	MIA	0.47 (9)
16	DET	-0.84 5 
17	TOR	-1.01 - 
18	NYK	-2.25 - 
19	CHI	-2.38 3 
20	PHI	-2.54 (5)
21	MIL	-3.13 (2)
22	NJN	-3.30 2 
23	MIN	-4.00 - 
24	CHA	-4.32 3 
25	GSW	-4.35 (5)
26	MEM	-5.04 (1)
27	SAC	-5.44 (1)
28	LAC	-7.04 - 
29	WAS	-7.98 - 
30	OKC	-11.57 - 


*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Portland +3.00
Cleveland +2.74
Charlotte +2.44

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Philadelphia -3.80
Miami -2.58
Golden State -2.16

*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Philadelphia
Washington

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Sacramento
Memphis


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

12/2 Bets of the Night


Utah @ Sacramento (-2.0)
I would pick Utah plus the 2.0

Portland (-7.5) @ New York
I would pick New York plus the 7.5

Lakers (-8.5) @ Indiana
I would pick Indiana plus the 8.5


NOTE: All three picks are my only full plays of the night.


Season Record: 1-2


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 12/2 Bets of the Night
> 
> 
> Utah @ Sacramento (-2.0)
> ...


Utah 99 - Sacramento 94 :clap:

Portland 104 - New York 97 :clap:

Lakers 117 - Indiana 118 :clap:



Always have to love a perfect night, especially when you pick two dogs that win their respective games.


Season Record: 4-2


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Great job Rhyder


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/8:

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	12.62 - 
02	LAL	9.81 - 
03	BOS	9.36 - 
04	ORL	6.49 - 
05	DEN	5.51 4 
06	SAS	3.77 6 
07	DAL	3.73 - 
08	PHO	3.62 (3)
09	UTA	3.50 (1)
10	NOH	3.24 3 
11	ATL	3.17 (1)
12	POR	3.09 (6)
13	HOU	2.71 (2)
14	MIA	1.23 1 
15	DET	-0.83 1 
16	IND	-0.94 (2)
17	NJN	-1.55 5 
18	CHI	-2.30 1 
19	NYK	-2.85 (1)
20	MIL	-3.31 1 
21	PHI	-3.38 (1)
22	TOR	-4.11 (5)
23	CHA	-4.12 1 
24	LAC	-5.33 4 
25	WAS	-5.62 4 
26	MEM	-5.72 - 
27	GSW	-5.99 (2)
28	MIN	-7.13 (5)
29	SAC	-7.36 (2)
30	OKC	-10.70 - 



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Denver +2.87
Washington +2.35
Cleveland +1.79

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Minnesota -3.13
Toronto -3.10
Indiana -2.47



*Most Overrated*
Philadelphia
Lakers
Houston

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Atlanta
Clippers


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

12/9 Bets of the Night

Toronto @ Cleveland (-12.5)
I would pick Cleveland minus the 12.5

Orlando @ Portland (-5.5)
I would pick Orlando plus the 5.5

New York @ Chicago (-7.5)
I would pick New York plus the 7.5


NOTE: I have two other plays on for this evening, but I don't see as much edge there as I do in the above games.


Season Record: 4-2


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 12/9 Bets of the Night
> 
> Toronto @ Cleveland (-12.5)
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 12.5
> ...


I'm with you on the NY one tonight. I think they stay close -- the line is apparently already moving -- it was 8.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 12/9 Bets of the Night
> 
> Toronto @ Cleveland (-12.5)
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 12.5
> ...


Toronto 94 - Cleveland 114 :clap:

Orlando 109 - Portland 108 :clap:

New York 100 - Chicago 105 :clap:


Personally, 4-1 overall on the night as my only loss was taking Dallas plus the point (which could have gone either way considering the two OTs).


Season Record: 7-2


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder, Portland seems a little low on the rankings. They have 8 road wins versus 1 home loss... that's usually a good rough measure of how strong teams are... and I'm guessing that would put them near the top.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

superdave said:


> Rhyder, Portland seems a little low on the rankings. They have 8 road wins versus 1 home loss... that's usually a good rough measure of how strong teams are... and I'm guessing that would put them near the top.


I spoke too soon. Looks like the Clips are going to win one at Portland.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Rhyder, Portland seems a little low on the rankings. They have 8 road wins versus 1 home loss... that's usually a good rough measure of how strong teams are... and I'm guessing that would put them near the top.


The power rankings are based on efficiency per possession. I do not account for strength of schedule, etc, for these ratings. I do take those factors into account when handicapping individual games.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/16

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	11.43 - 
02	BOS	10.47 1 
03	LAL	8.33 (1)
04	DEN	6.40 1 
05	ORL	6.34 (1)
06	PHO	4.16 2 
07	SAS	3.96 (1)
08	DAL	3.53 (1)
09	NOH	3.35 1 
10	UTA	3.27 (1)
11	ATL	2.85 - 
12	HOU	2.18 1 
13 POR	1.87 (1)
14	MIA	-0.11 - 
15	DET	-0.36 - 
16	CHI	-1.35 2 
17	NYK	-1.46 2 
18	IND	-2.48 (2)
19	TOR	-2.71 3 
20	NJN	-3.01 (3)
21	PHI	-3.08 - 
22	MEM	-3.46 4 
23	MIL	-3.64 (3)
24	LAC	-4.10 - 
25	CHA	-4.63 (2)
26	GSW	-5.39 1 
27	WAS	-6.69 (2)
28	SAC	-7.34 1 
29	MIN	-7.75 (1)
30	OKC	-9.87 - 



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Memphis +2.26
Toronto +1.41
New York +1.38

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Indiana -1.54
Lakers -1.48
New Jersey -1.46



*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Philadelphia
Cleveland

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Atlanta
Orlando


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

12/17 Bets of the Night

Cleveland (-10.0) @ Minnesota
I would pick Cleveland minus the 10.0

Clippers @ Chicago (-3.0)
I would pick Chicago minus the 3.0



NOTE: I am only giving 2 picks for tonight, as I do not see more than one point of edge in any of the other games. The game at Minnesota is a full play and the game at Chicago is half a play in my system.

Season Record: 7-2


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 12/17 Bets of the Night
> 
> Cleveland (-10.0) @ Minnesota
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 10.0
> ...


Congrats Rhyder. En fuego. :clap:


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 12/17 Bets of the Night
> 
> Cleveland (-10.0) @ Minnesota
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 10.0
> ...



Cleveland 93 - Minnesota 70 :clap:

Clippers 109 - Chicago 115 :clap:


Season Record: 9-2


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Congrats Rhyder. En fuego. :clap:


Thanks. I'm sitting at a 70% win percentage for the season. This is odd, because the system usually starts out in the mid-50%s early on, and then slowly starts sliding up as # of plays rapidly reduces.


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Thanks. I'm sitting at a 70% win percentage for the season. This is odd, because the system usually starts out in the mid-50%s early on, and then slowly starts sliding up as # of plays rapidly reduces.


Well, that's it, I'm betting my life savings on your next picks!!

j/k

Mostly because I don't have much.

But your pick of the Bulls was encouraging to make me believe. Still, it was pretty close to the 5 point line. How come our line was so different from the one you were working off of, and if you had Bulls at -5, would you have still listed them?


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## King Joseus (May 26, 2003)

Good Hope said:


> Well, that's it, I'm betting my life savings on your next picks!!
> 
> j/k
> 
> ...


I usually grab the line as soon as it's posted over on Yahoo (they list four, usually all the same). Rhyder's might be from closer to game time, I think.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I take the Vegas odds when I run my model (which is usually late afternoon). I usually use LV Hilton as I have a buddy there who can submit my bets (and he is the only other person who gets my picks on a daily basis).

If there's a half point or full point difference from casino to casino, I ask him to visit the various places (and I cut him in on any winnings for his troubles).

I did not see the odds earlier that morning, so can't really comment on why the line moved. That said, I saw 3 points of edge with the Bulls -3. Had I seen them at -5, I would not have made a bet on the game, as I need at least 2.5 points of edge to make at least half a play.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> Well, that's it, I'm betting my life savings on your next picks!!
> 
> j/k
> 
> ...


I know you are joking, but this is a very valuable lesson. When people have a winning system, they tend to over-bet. This is a huge mistake.

If odds of winning are 50% (ie a coin flip), the odds you will have a losing streak of 7 over the course of 100 plays is greater than 50%. Since I often have multiple bets on any given night, I conservatively gamble 1/30 of my initial stake per game (and 1/60 on my half plays). 1/20 is the conventional wisdom, although I don't have a large amount of disposable cash to add to my stake in case I go on a bad run. I tend to be untra conservative.

Only gamble what you can afford to lose, because you still can lose on a winning system. I try to avoid that risk as much as my tolerance can take.


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## Basel (Mar 31, 2005)

Lakers need to stop slumping and being overrated! :biggrin:


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> I know you are joking, but this is a very valuable lesson. When people have a winning system, they tend to over-bet. This is a huge mistake.
> 
> If odds of winning are 50% (ie a coin flip), the odds you will have a losing streak of 7 over the course of 100 plays is greater than 50%. Since I often have multiple bets on any given night, I conservatively gamble 1/30 of my initial stake per game (and 1/60 on my half plays). 1/20 is the conventional wisdom, although I don't have a large amount of disposable cash to add to my stake in case I go on a bad run. I tend to be untra conservative.
> 
> Only gamble what you can afford to lose, because you still can lose on a winning system. I try to avoid that risk as much as my tolerance can take.


Great stuff Rhyder. It takes a lot of discipline to employ a system b/c human nature makes us overconfident while winning or taking larger risks when losing. For example, making boneheaded plays with 'house' money when we're up or doubling and tripling bets when on a losing streak to cover losses.

I'm on the beach with sports betting right now, but I love your reads man. Some of the better stuff you can find on the net if you ask me.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/22

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	11.76 - 
02	BOS	10.44 - 
03	LAL	7.64 - 
04	ORL	6.75 1 
05	DEN	5.42 (1)
06	PHO	4.29 - 
07	NOH	3.58 2 
08	ATL	3.18 3 
09	SAS	3.02 (2)
10	UTA	2.93 - 
11	HOU	2.81 1 
12	POR	2.42 1 
13	DAL	2.31 (5)
14	DET	0.48 1 
15	MIA	-0.44 (1)
16	CHI	-1.81 - 
17	IND	-1.88 1 
18	NYK	-2.18 (1)
19	NJN	-2.30 1 
20	PHI	-2.56 1 
21	MIL	-2.57 2 
22	CHA	-2.92 3 
23	TOR	-3.36 (4)
24	LAC	-3.52 - 
25	MEM	-4.55 (3)
26	GSW	-5.69 - 
27	SAC	-6.91 1 
28	WAS	-7.27 (1)
29	MIN	-8.74 - 
30	OKC	-8.87 - 



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Charlotte +1.71
Milwaukee +1.07
Oklahoma City +0.99

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Dallas -1.21
Memphis -1.08
Minnesota -0.98



*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Philadelphia
Portland

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Sacramento
Atlanta


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

12/23 Bets of the Night

Houston @ Cleveland (-7.5)
I would pick Cleveland minus the 7.5

Lakers @ New Orleans (-3.0)
I would pick Lakers plus the 3.0

Oklahoma City @ Atlanta (-11.5)
I would pick Atlanta minus the 11.5



NOTE: These are my only full plays for this evening. I do have three other 1/2 plays on for tonight.



Season Record: 9-2


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 12/23 Bets of the Night
> 
> Houston @ Cleveland (-7.5)
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 7.5
> ...


Houston 90 - Cleveland 99 :clap:

Lakers 100 - New Orleans 87 :clap:

Oklahoma City 88 - Atlanta 99 :azdaja: (so close)



Season Record: 11-3



Note: I was 4-2 on the night, so 2-1 on my half plays as well.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/29

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	11.30 - 
02	BOS	10.91 - 
03	ORL	8.91 1 
04	LAL	7.19 (1)
05	DEN	4.67 - 
06	PHO	4.23 - 
07	SAS	3.91 2 
08	ATL	3.66 - 
09	DAL	3.47 4 
10	HOU	3.08 1 
11	UTA	2.74 (1)
12	POR	2.51 - 
13	NOH	1.99 (6)
14	DET	0.84 - 
15	MIA	0.66 - 
16	IND	-1.34 1 
17	MIL	-1.74 4 
18	CHI	-1.85 (2)
19	CHA	-2.10 3 
20	TOR	-2.85 3 
21	PHI	-2.88 (1)
22	NJN	-3.20 (3)
23	NYK	-3.72 (5)
24	MEM	-5.18 1 
25	LAC	-5.43 (1)
26	GSW	-6.54 - 
27	WAS	-7.10 1 
28	SAC	-8.21 (1)
29	MIN	-8.51 - 
30	OKC	-8.82 - 



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Orlando +2.16
Dallas +1.15
Miami +1.11

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Clippers -1.91
New Orleans -1.59
New York -1.55



*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Milwaukee
New Orleans

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Sacramento
Orlando


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

12/30 Bets of the Night

Phoenix (-2.5) @ Memphis
I would pick Phoenix minus the 2.5

Atlanta @ Indiana (-1.0)
I would pick Atlanta plus the 1.0

Minnesota @ Dallas (-12.5)
I would pick Dallas minus the 12.5



NOTE: Phoenix @ Memphis is my only full play. The other two games are my best half plays of the evening.



Season Record: 11-3


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 12/30 Bets of the Night
> 
> Phoenix (-2.5) @ Memphis
> I would pick Phoenix minus the 2.5
> ...


Phoenix 101 - Memphis 89 :clap:

Atlanta 110 - Indiana 104 :clap:

Minnesota 100 - Dallas 107 :azdaja:



Season Record: 13-4


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 1/8

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	10.90 - 
02	BOS	10.53 - 
03	ORL	8.47 - 
04	LAL	7.53 - 
05	PHO	4.79 1 
06	ATL	4.23 2 
07	SAS	4.15 - 
08	DEN	3.94 (3)
09	DAL	2.94 - 
10	NOH	2.79 3 
11	UTA	2.61 - 
12	HOU	1.77 (2)
13	DET	1.55 1 
14	POR	1.48 (2)
15	MIA	0.68 - 
16	MIL	-0.93 1 
17	IND	-1.24 (1)
18	TOR	-2.24 2 
19	CHA	-2.59 - 
20	CHI	-2.63 (2)
21	PHI	-3.16 - 
22	NYK	-3.24 1 
23	NJN	-3.88 (1)
24	MEM	-5.16 - 
25	LAC	-5.44 - 
26	GSW	-5.74 - 
27	MIN	-7.03 2 
28	WAS	-7.52 (1)
29	SAC	-7.91 (1)
30	OKC	-8.07 - 



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Minnesota +1.48
Milwaukee +0.81
New Orleans +0.79

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Houston -1.31
Portland -1.03
Chicago -0.77



*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Philadelphia
Milwaukee

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Orlando
Sacramento


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

1/9 Bets of the Night

Clippers @ New Orleans (-15.5)
I would pick Clippers plus the 15.5

Washington @ Chicago (-5.0)
I would pick Chicago minus the 5.0

Charlotte @ Philadelphia (-5.5)
I would pick Charlotte plus the 5.5



NOTE: Clippers @ New Orleans is my only full play. The other two games are my best half plays of the evening.



Season Record: 13-4


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 1/9 Bets of the Night
> 
> Clippers @ New Orleans (-15.5)
> I would pick Clippers plus the 15.5
> ...


Clipppers 80 - New Orleans 107 :azdaja:

Washington 86 - Chicago 98 :clap:

Charlotte 87 - Philadelphia 93 :azdaja:



Season Record: 14-6


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## King Joseus (May 26, 2003)

Rhyder said:


> Clipppers 80 - New Orleans 107 :azdaja:
> 
> Washington 86 - Chicago 98 :clap:
> 
> ...


That Philly/Charlotte one stings.

Meanwhile, why the heck are we awake? You've probably got something reasonable. I'm just nutty.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

King Joseus said:


> That Philly/Charlotte one stings.


For every 1/2 point miss, there seems to be a game where I shouldn't win at close to the end of regulation, the game goes into overtime and the team I bet on covers the spread. It just goes with the territory.

In my half bet games, I only see 2.5-3.5 points of edge. The Clipper loss hurts even more as I saw almost 4 points in edge over the line, was a full bet, and they really never came close.



> Meanwhile, why the heck are we awake? You've probably got something reasonable. I'm just nutty.


Shouldn't have been, but I'm a night owl and decided to watch two DVR games after the wife went to bed instead of the one I usually do. Luckily for me, my almost two-year-old decided to sleep in until 8:30 this morning.


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## Basel (Mar 31, 2005)

So what does it take for the Lakers to stop being overrated in your rankings? :biggrin:


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Basel said:


> So what does it take for the Lakers to stop being overrated in your rankings? :biggrin:


They currently have a 7.5 rating. My predictive rating shows that they should be at 5.0. If they continue to play at the same efficiency, I would expect their rating to approach 5.0 as they play more games.

Basically, they either need to continue the downward trend we have been seeing over past weeks, or they need to play more efficiently than they have been to raise the 5.0 predictive rating.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 1/14

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	11.97 - 
02	ORL	9.68 1 
03	BOS	8.55 (1)
04	LAL	6.42 - 
05	PHO	5.40 - 
06	SAS	4.30 1 
07	DEN	4.30 1 
08	UTA	3.37 3 
09	NOH	2.44 1 
10	ATL	1.99 (4)
11	DAL	1.96 (2)
12	POR	1.94 2 
13	HOU	1.80 (1)
14	DET	0.76 (1)
15	MIA	0.19 - 
16	MIL	-0.86 - 
17	TOR	-1.50 1 
18	IND	-1.65 (1)
19	PHI	-1.80 2 
20	CHI	-2.69 - 
21	CHA	-2.82 (2)
22	NJN	-2.83 1 
23	NYK	-3.60 (1)
24	MIN	-5.06 3 
25	GSW	-5.13 1 
26	LAC	-6.18 (1)
27	MEM	-6.37 (3)
28	OKC	-7.55 2 
29	WAS	-7.65 (1)
30	SAC	-7.66 (1)



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Minnesota +1.97
Philadelphia +1.36
Orlando +1.21

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Atlanta -2.24
Boston -1.98
Memphis -1.21



*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Milwaukee
Portland

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Sacramento
Orlando


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I'll do bets of the week tomorrow when there are more games being played.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

1/16 Bets of the Night

New Orleans @ Cleveland (-3.0)
I would pick Cleveland minus the 3.0

Minnesota @ Phoenix (-8.0)
I would pick Phoenix minus the 8.0

Orlando @ Lakers (-4.5)
I would pick Orlando plus the 4.5



NOTE: Busy evening as I have 5 full plays plus one half play on. These are my three best.



Season Record: 14-6


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 1/16 Bets of the Night
> 
> New Orleans @ Cleveland (-3.0)
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 3.0
> ...


New Orleaans 78 - Cleveland 92 :clap:

Minnesota 105 - Phoenix 103 :azdaja:

Orlando 109 - Lakers 103 :clap:



Season Record: 16-7


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## osman (Jul 29, 2003)

Great thread, what do you think of the lines tonight? good to find another gambler on the site.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 1/19

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	11.59 - 
02	ORL	9.94 - 
03	BOS	9.49 - 
04	LAL	5.82 - 
05	PHO	5.01 - 
06	DEN	3.62 1 
07	SAS	3.52 (1)
08	UTA	2.89 - 
09	HOU	2.18 4 
10	ATL	2.17 - 
11	NOH	2.08 (2)
12	DAL	1.83 (1)
13	POR	1.14 (1)
14	DET	0.43 - 
15	MIA	0.05 - 
16	PHI	-0.51 3 
17	MIL	-1.20 (1)
18	IND	-1.24 - 
19	TOR	-1.73 (2)
20	CHI	-2.24 - 
21	CHA	-2.64 - 
22	NYK	-3.73 1 
23	NJN	-3.89 (1)
24	GSW	-4.60 1 
25	MIN	-5.01 (1)
26	LAC	-5.92 - 
27	MEM	-6.50 - 
28	OKC	-6.64 - 
29	WAS	-7.10 - 
30	SAC	-7.38 - 



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
Philadelphia +1.29
Boston +0.93
Oklahoma City +0.90

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
New Jersey -1.05
Portland -0.80
San Antonio -0.78



*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Milwaukee
Portland

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Sacramento
Orlando


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I'll do bets of the week tomorrow as there will be 11 games to choose from instead of only 4 this evening.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

1/21 Bets of the Night

Cleveland (-1.0) @ Portland
I would pick Cleveland minus the 1.0

Lakers (-16.0) @ Clippers
I would pick Clippers plus the 16.0

New Jersey @ New Orleans (-4.5)
I would pick New Orleans minus the 4.5



NOTE: These are my only three plays of the evening. The quantity of games with edge typically declines as the season progresses, so this is not a surprise.



Season Record: 16-7


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## osman (Jul 29, 2003)

Rhyder said:


> 1/21 Bets of the Night
> 
> Cleveland (-1.0) @ Portland
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 1.0
> ...


I agree, I also like Boston at -5.5 to cover against Miami.

Do you ever take halftime spreads? Sometimes I feel a team will come out strong at home, but fade in the 2nd half thus killing the spread, or if teams come of a loss they usually come out strong in the 1st half but fade in the second at times.

I've had better luck betting on halftime spreads, than the full game.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

osman said:


> I agree, I also like Boston at -5.5 to cover against Miami.
> 
> Do you ever take halftime spreads? Sometimes I feel a team will come out strong at home, but fade in the 2nd half thus killing the spread, or if teams come of a loss they usually come out strong in the 1st half but fade in the second at times.
> 
> I've had better luck betting on halftime spreads, than the full game.


Short answer is no, and probably do not have the time.

I have a friend living in Vegas placing all the action. I'm usually spending time with the family when the live action is happening, and catch up on my basketball addiction with the DVR at night.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 1/21 Bets of the Night
> 
> Cleveland (-1.0) @ Portland
> I would pick Cleveland minus the 1.0
> ...


Cleveland 104 - Portland 98 :clap:

Lakers 108 - Clippers 97 :clap:

New Jersey 92 - New Orleans 102 :clap:



Season Record: 19-7


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

osman said:


> I agree, I also like Boston at -5.5 to cover against Miami.


Good call if you put your money down.


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## osman (Jul 29, 2003)

Rhyder said:


> Good call if you put your money down.


I did indeed, I took Boston, and Cleveland to cover. Good picks yourself... 

I wasn't to sure about the New Orleans game with West, and Chandler out, but good call.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 2/10

*Rank Team Rating +/-*
01	CLE	10.23 - 
02	BOS	9.80 1 
03	ORL	9.47 (1)
04	LAL	6.64 - 
05	PHO	4.22 - 
06	DEN	3.70 - 
07	SAS	3.48 - 
08	UTA	2.31 - 
09	HOU	2.14 - 
10	ATL	1.67 - 
11	POR	1.64 2 
12	DAL	1.39 - 
13	NOH	1.38 (2)
14	DET	0.27 - 
15	MIA	0.04 - 
16	PHI	-0.41 - 
17	CHI	-0.95 3 
18	MIL	-1.31 (1)
19	IND	-1.74 (1)
20	CHA	-2.01 1 
21	NJN	-2.07 2 
22	NYK	-2.33 - 
23	TOR	-2.52 (4)
24	GSW	-3.51 - 
25	MIN	-4.62 - 
26	OKC	-5.64 2 
27	LAC	-6.14 (1)
28	MEM	-6.46 (1)
29	SAC	-8.29 1 
30	WAS	-8.63 (1)



*Surgers* (largest positive rating differential)
New Jerseay +1.82
New York +1.41
Chicago +1.29

*Slumpers* (largest negative rating differential)
Washington -1.53
Cleveland -1.36
Sacramento -0.90



*Most Overrated*
Lakers
Portland
New Orleans

*Most Underrated*
Phoenix
Sacramento
Clippers


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

2/11 Bets of the Night

New York @ Clippers (-5.0)
I would pick New York plus the 5.0

San Antonio (-6.5) @ Toronto
I would pick Toronto plus the 6.5



NOTE: These are the only two games with enough edge for me to make a recommendation. The New York pick is a full play and the Toronto pick is a half play. There are typically fewer games to bet on as the season progresses, so this should come as no surprise even with a full slate of games on the night.



Season Record: 19-7


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> 2/11 Bets of the Night
> 
> New York @ Clippers (-5.0)
> I would pick New York plus the 5.0
> ...


New York 124 - Clippers 128 :banana-suit:

San Antonio 89 - Toronto 91 :banana-suit:



Season Record: 21-7


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

Rhyder, you're on fire! Especially the San Antonio game was one I thought wouldn't work out for you.

What's the over/under on Tyrus being traded?


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> Rhyder, you're on fire! Especially the San Antonio game was one I thought wouldn't work out for you.


Surprisingly, Bosh being out doesn't hurt Toronto all that much. Although this could be a case that the players play well in short stints and don't do as well as minutes are increased. We shall see, although I antipicate betting on Toronto quite often in the future.



> What's the over/under on Tyrus being traded?


I don't have any contacts associated with the league, so my guess is as good as yours. eace:


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> New York 124 - Clippers 128 :banana-suit:
> 
> San Antonio 89 - Toronto 91 :banana-suit:
> 
> Season Record: 21-7


Beating the S&P since 2003.... :clap:

Rhyder, when you open up a hedge fund count me in okay? Awesome run, this season bro. Just curious, have you changed your formula the last few seasons or does it stay relatively constant? I know your last couple seasons have been winners, but just wondering if you 'tweak' it from time to time.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Beating the S&P since 2003.... :clap:
> 
> Rhyder, when you open up a hedge fund count me in okay? Awesome run, this season bro. Just curious, have you changed your formula the last few seasons or does it stay relatively constant? I know your last couple seasons have been winners, but just wondering if you 'tweak' it from time to time.


The main formula (the theory behind the system) is constant. I have tweaked some of the adjustment factors from season to season. Now that I have real data to work with, I am going to test a couple of ideas in the offseason to see if they improve on my existing methods.

This is my seventh season of implementation and I have yet to have a losing season. Last year was my worst (think I only won 56% of bets if memory serves correctly). This season has been my best so far, with a win rate slightly above 67% overall.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> The main formula (the theory behind the system) is constant. I have tweaked some of the adjustment factors from season to season. Now that I have real data to work with, I am going to test a couple of ideas in the offseason to see if they improve on my existing methods.
> 
> This is my seventh season of implementation and I have yet to have a losing season. Last year was my worst (think I only won 56% of bets if memory serves correctly). This season has been my best so far, with a win rate slightly above 67% overall.


Rhyder, your power rankings are one of my favorites reads during bball season. I've been following them on/off for the past few years and (cough, cough)... I've probably piggy-backed more of these picks than I can remember. :yay:

I'm out of the game so to speak and have been for months now, but its always a great read. I wouldn't be upset or surprised if you went offline either. Anyone that can employ a system, stick to it, and post publically garners my utmost respect. Money management is the #1 skill IMO which separates the winners from losers long term. Its a skill that I'm still perfecting in business, investments, sports-action, poker, or whatever. Good stuff my man and congrats again on a great run.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Rhyder, your power rankings are one of my favorites reads during bball season. I've been following them on/off for the past few years and (cough, cough)... I've probably piggy-backed more of these picks than I can remember. :yay:
> 
> I'm out of the game so to speak and have been for months now, but its always a great read. I wouldn't be upset or surprised if you went offline either. Anyone that can employ a system, stick to it, and post publically garners my utmost respect. Money management is the #1 skill IMO which separates the winners from losers long term. Its a skill that I'm still perfecting in business, investments, sports-action, poker, or whatever. Good stuff my man and congrats again on a great run.


I appreciate the kind words. I will continue to post as long as I am around


----------

