# Pick Watch: 2016



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Well, not that I'm stating anything that most don't already know, but heading into this year it seems that what happens on the court for Boston this year may not matter as much to the team's long-term outlook as what happens on the court for _other_ teams in the league. Ainge has (obviously) made a series of deals that mostly brought back future firsts, and it's looking like things are breaking about as well as they could have for the Celtics so far, and those picks may be the team's best chance to draft/trade for a real star (sorry Isaiah). Figured this would be a convenient place to discuss all things going on with the teams that owe Boston picks in the lead-up to the 2016 lottery/draft. Quick run-down of the picks in Boston's possession as of right now:

Boston's own - Celtics currently own their own first-round pick completely for 2016

Brooklyn Nets, unprotected first-rounder - The juicy one. The expectation at the time of the KG/Pierce/Terry mega-trade was that Brooklyn would spend infinite Russian mob money in order to remain a low-rung playoff team, but after shattering the single-season payroll record and losing more money than the rest of the league combined ownership issued Billy King a mandate to get under the tax line. They're now built around a defensively poor and (in Brook's case) physically shaky Brook Lopez/Thad Young front line and Joe Johnson in his mid-30s on the wing. I like Jarrett Jack as a locker-room-glue veteran, but as your fourth-best player? Yikes. There are a couple of young guys in Ronde Hollis-Jefferson and Thomas Robinson that could develop into interesting players, while Bogdanovic/Karasev could theoretically become useful spot-up guys on the perimeter, but I don't see any of them having star potential. 

Dallas Mavericks, top-7 protected first rounder - Things have gone perfectly in Dallas, but only if you're looking at it from the perspective of the C's. Tyson Chandler is gone, and the DAJ saga pretty much crippled Dallas' offseason, leading to the team maxing out a supporting-cast shooting guard coming off a torn Achilles, bringing in Deron Williams, and going center by committee. Throw in Chandler Parsons coming off of (rumored) microfracture surgery and Dirk hitting his late 30s, and this squad appears to be just good enough to finish around 10th/11th in the West, which is right where Boston wants them. Several early-season injury setbacks or a committed tank job could result in this pick rolling over to next year, but I'm pretty confident about it become a late first-rounder for Ainge to play with in June. 

Minnesota Timberwolves, top-12 protected first rounder - This one converts to Minnesota's second-rounders in '16 and '17 if it isn't conveyed this season, and that seems the overwhelmingly likely scenario. Still, it may be useful as a filler piece in a larger deal, and it gives C's fans a reason to keep an eye on a Minny team with a ton of interesting young talent and our old buddy KG. 

Lighting Round, Second-round Picks Edition:

Boston owes their own second-rounder to either Memphis or Utah via a series of deals. Either way it's gone, so there's really no reason to keep track or where it's going.

Philly second-rounder - sneakily a nice asset, since they're tanking yet again and it'll almost certainly be within a few picks of the first round.

Cleveland second-rounder - filler, will almost certainly be at the end of the draft

Miami second-rounder - a little better than Clevelands, but not by much

Dallas second-rounder - technically could be Memphis' second-rounder if the Mavs finish ahead of the Grizz, but that seems unlikely. Probably an early-mid second rounder, but also probably not usable because of the sheer volume of picks Boston has. I figure that we'll see quite a few of these picks jettisoned in trade over the season.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Brooklyn's started off the season 0-4, and they really do look like they're one of the two or three worst teams in the conference. So far so good.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Mostly good news so far. Brooklyn looks like they're solidly the worst non-Philly team in the East and one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in the entire league, so at this point it's likely that that pick becomes top-5. The Mavs are feisty early, but they're built mostly around guys that are either old or have balky lower limbs, so they appear to be a prime candidate to fade down the stretch. Minnesota's been better than expected, but it'll be really tough for them to not finish in the bottom 12, so I'm still writing that pick off.


----------



## Vermonster (Feb 17, 2012)

Speaking with experience from watching America East teams, I think Jameel Warney would be a nice pickup in a later round. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jameel-Warney-65615/stats/


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Vermonster said:


> Speaking with experience from watching America East teams, I think Jameel Warney would be a nice pickup in a later round. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jameel-Warney-65615/stats/


Well, I don't know much about him, but like I laid out, they have second-round picks for days and would be in the market for some draft-and-stash guys if they still have most of those picks on draft night. It's what they've done with Colton Iverson and Marcus Thornton v2.0 in recent years, and can help the guy land a better pro offer overseas until (if?) he can break into the league.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

So, it's looking more and more like that the current state of the West will leave Dallas solidly as a playoff team and that their pick will be about 10 spots lower than was hoped. On the plus side, Minnesota remains in the mix for one of the last playoff spots out West (although they probably won't get it) and Brooklyn continues to look like the third-worst team in the league, at least up until a few squads go into tank mode later in the season. If I had to guess right now I'd say Boston is in line for a pick in the 5-7 range and two picks in the 15-25ish mid/late range.


----------



## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

So the haul was Jaylen Brown (who could be an immediate Evan Turner replacement and ideally on upgrade on him longterm), 3 draft-and-stash guys, a potential steal with Deyonta Davis on a non-guaranteed contract, and then fliers on Demetrius Jackson, Ben Bentil, and Abdel Nader.

I like what they did overall with these picks, but I have to imagine they also did everything within their power to move all of them. It has to be disappointing to not be able to package your assets into an impact player.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Deyonta Davis and the guy picked at 35 were traded to Memphis for a possible future first.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

I like that Boston was able to roll two second-rounders into a future first (hopefully the Clips are still at least a fringe playoff team three years from now), I like the second-rounder fliers on Jackson and Bentil (who I think might have a little Jonas Jerebko in him), and I like the Jaylen Brown pick at three as a guy who has a very high upside at a position of need but should also be able to play defense well enough to get minutes right away. Nader is a body for training camp - whatever. The two Euros I don't know nearly enough about to speak on, but they both fit profiles of guys who are useful in the current NBA, so I'm open-minded. Trading for a star at a steep discount is obviously always ideal, but I don't hate the way the night turned out.


----------

