# 2004-05 Predict the Stats



## Arclite (Nov 2, 2002)

It's that time again. Predict the stats for the 2004-05 Phoenix Sun team with our current roster. Go as in-depth or not in-depth as you please.

Mine:

Starters

C Jake Voskuhl - 20mpg, 5.5ppg, 5rpg, 55% fg's
PF Amare Stoudemire - 40mpg, 22ppg, 9.5rpg, 2.5apg, 48% fg's
SF Shawn Marion - 36mpg, 17ppg, 8.5rpg, 1.5apg, 46% fg's
SG Joe Johnson - 30mpg, 12ppg, 4.0rpg, 4.0apg, 42% fg's
PG Steve Nash - 34mpg, 14ppg, 3.0rpg, 9.5apg, 49% fg's

Bench

SG/SF Quentin Richardson - 26mpg, 13.5ppg, 5.5rpg, 1.5apg, 41% fg's
PF/C Maciej Lampe - 24mpg, 9.5ppg, 4.0rpg, 1apg, 51% fg's
C Stephen Hunter - 12mpg, 3ppg, 3rpg, 2bpg, 45% fg's
PG Leandro Barbosa - 14mpg, 6ppg, 2rpg, 2apg, 46% fg's


End of the bench (blowouts) Casey Jacobsen, Howard Eisley, Jackson Vroman, Zarko Cabarkapa.

Adds up to 102.5ppg, which is about what I think we'll average next year..


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

Nice work, Arc.

I would guess that:
Amare's points = up
Marion's points = down
Voskuhl's ponts = down
Hunter's everything = down

It will be interesting to see what kind of stats JJ and Q will put up next year. I think it depends on how much JJ wants it. Good estimate on both.

Casey will have a tough time finding minutes. Too bad, because he played very well this summer.


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## Arclite (Nov 2, 2002)

Yeah, I actually think Casey will somehow find a way into the rotation at the expense of possibly Lampe's minutes when the Suns play small ball. Like you said, he played well this summer and his minutes are contingent on that month-long or so performance not being a fluke. Still, it's nice knowing he's there in the event that JJ/Matrix/Q get injured. Better than having to sign some NBDL guy to play backup minutes.

I think the most interesting story this year will be how the Q/JJ situation plays itself out. We just can't afford another lapse from JJ - if he goes back to his 2002, early 2003 ways we're in trouble. I think he's got more confidence now, and I'm fairly sure he'll be at least solid, but he's not going to be the 20/5/5 guy he was last year. That's not a bad thing, though. I think those stats are closer to worst than best-case scenario, he's still capable of putting up 16-5-5. I have a feeling Q is going to get big minutes though, whether he's starting or not, because he definitely had his share of brilliant moments (also a share of nightmares) in Clipperland and I just have a feeling he's going to be huge for us. His stats were brought down by a host of nagging injuries throughout the season, so if he's healthy I think he'll get at least 30 minutes.

The alternative is that Barbosa gets cut out of the main rotation, and JJ gets backup point minutes in order to get our big three at the swing positions more minutes.

Looking at that lineup and barring any major injuries (particularly Amare, but Nash to a degree also), I think our offense is too good not to at least make the playoffs. We need to make some major strides defensively, but our offense is going to be standout.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

If JJ drops down to only scoring 12 ppg, I think the Suns have regressed. 

I honestly feel D'Antoni needs to let the dogs loose and ratchet up the intensity. There is no reason why the Suns shouldn't be able to score 105 ppg (and have a bunch of 120 point games during the season now that they have Nash).


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

You look at the roster and talent, and this team can just keep scoring. Barbosa, Q, Zarko, Lampe, and Casey off the bench = lots of points. We'll see how much they want to play defense though. I agree w/ you that there is too much offensive firepower here not to make the playoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them average over 105ppg. Let's just hope they don't give up 105ppg. :yes:


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

How do you have Lampe playing more than Zarko? Lampe is not even better than Zarko now.


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## Arclite (Nov 2, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Hong Kong Fooey</b>!
> How do you have Lampe playing more than Zarko? Lampe is not even better than Zarko now.


Yes he is. This team suffered noticeably almost every time Zarko stepped on the floor. If he was an 18 year old rook, I would have given him some leeway, but he's already 23 and he was billed as NBA ready and polished, and he wasn't and isn't. Even if the stats didn't back up how horrible Zarko was/is (he got cut from S&M for God's sake), his play sure did. He was terrible.

Also, I expect JJ's scoring to drop not because of a regression, but a smaller role in the offense (he still hasn't shown he can operate without dominating the ball), far more offensive weapons and far less minutes. The fact is, post-Marbury he was playing 44 minutes a night and in control of the ball for all 44 minutes last year, and that's not going to be the case at all with the team this year.

PS This isn't going to be a very fun thread to bump if I'm the only one making statistical predictions.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Hong Kong Fooey</b>!
> How do you have Lampe playing more than Zarko? Lampe is not even better than Zarko now.


Lampe is 270lbs and played great in the summer league. The Suns will give him any and every opportunity to earn minutes. I would say that Lampe is a better player right now, but regardless, the Suns are more interested in him, as he gives them a potentially great C.


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>Arclite</b>!
> 
> Starters
> 
> ...


There is no way the Suns can expect Amare to be effective for 40 minutes a game. Last season the top PF's averaged:

Tim Duncan 36.6 minutes
Jermaine O'Neal 35.7 minutes
Pau Gasol 31.5 minutes
Carlos Boozer 34.6 minutes
Zach Randolph 37.9 minutes
Elton Brand 38.7 minutes

Only Kevin Garnett at 39.4 minutes per game came close to playing 40 minutes a game. So while Amare played 36.8 minutes a game last season, I'd rather see them reduce it to about 34 and not wear him down. I think his scoring stats, rebounding, and assists will be close to what is projected but in fewer minutes.

My projection for the starters minutes:

Voskuhl - 18 minutes
Stoudemire - 34 minutes
Marion - 34 minutes
Johnson - 32 minutes
Nash - 34 minutes


> Bench
> 
> SG/SF Quentin Richardson - 26mpg, 13.5ppg, 5.5rpg, 1.5apg, 41% fg's
> PF/C Maciej Lampe - 24mpg, 9.5ppg, 4.0rpg, 1apg, 51% fg's
> ...


Richardson 29 minutes - he will get some of his minutes from Marion and some in small ball
Lampe - 18 minutes - I doubt he will be effective on defense without fouling which is why his minutes won't be higher
Hunter - 14 minutes - He may get a couple more if Lampe's defense does not develop as quickly as we hope.


> End of the bench (blowouts) Casey Jacobsen, Howard Eisley, Jackson Vroman, Zarko Cabarkapa.


I think that Jacobsen, Vroman, and Carbakapa will each fluctuate between games getting up to 15 minutes with "Did Not Play" games. 

Nash is the only really good outside shooter in the rotation. Barboasa can hit the three, but has such a low trajectory that he has to be completely wide open to shoot. Marion has a similar problem. So Jacobsen will get minutes when the team needs another shooter to bring in agains zones

Vroman will play if he can become another Bo Outlaw if there is a need for energy. I am told he looked very good during summer league.

Carbakapa will only play if he returns to the way he played prior to his wrist injury. If he returns to the level he played a year ago in the summer league, he will get minutes.


> Adds up to 102.5ppg, which is about what I think we'll average next year..


I don't think there is any doubt the Suns will average over 100 ppg if they stay healthy. Last year the Mavs averaged 105.2 ppg. They had a lot of great outside shooters but they had no one on the inside that could score like Amare.


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## deannahum (Aug 7, 2003)

Marion will play about 38 mpg...


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## Amareca (Oct 21, 2002)

Adding up all averages is useless because guys like Lampe, Voshkul or Hunter might get DNP every once in a while at least.

Amare 38mpg 23ppg 10.5rpg
Marion 36mph 18pph 8.5rpg
Johnson 32mpg 14ppg 4rpg 4apg
Nash 32mpg 14ppg 8.5apg
Q 32mpg 14pph 6rpg 2apg
Barbosa 12mpg 7ppg 2apg
Lampe 20mpg 7ppg 4rpg
Zarko 10mpg 4ppg 2.5rpg
Hunter 20mpg 4ppg 5rpg 2bpg
Voshkul 20mpg 5ppg 4rpg
Williams 8mpg 2ppg 2rpg

That would be 104ppg if those guys played all games. Though Casey will definately get his minutes and the Suns will definately play stretches without a center.

We should be regularly scoring 110.


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## Arclite (Nov 2, 2002)

*Re: Re: 2004-05 Predict the Stats*



> Originally posted by <b>azirishmusic</b>!
> 
> There is no way the Suns can expect Amare to be effective for 40 minutes a game.


There isn't? He played 40 minutes per post all-star break, and he played the best basketball of his career, and he was shouldering a MUCH heavier load in that period of time offensively than he'll have to this year. There's no reason that Amare shouldn't get at least 38 minutes a night. If we had Stromile Swift or Brian Skinner or somebody backing him up it'd be different, but Amare is so much better than our bench bigs there's just no way he'll get less than 38, IMO. We improved our depth and I love our bench rotation at the 1-3, but we're not the Memphis Grizzlies.

I agree with what you said about Lampe, my biggest concern with him is also his getting into foul trouble. They said he was making strides defensively (I know that's ALL they worked on with him over the summer), but he still is tremendously bad on defense. The thing with Lampe - because of his offensive skills, I see him being on the floor every minute Stoudemire is on the bench as the only other legitimate offensive option among our bigs. So that will get him 10-12 minutes at least, and I don't think Voskuhl and Hunter will combine for more than 36 minutes or so at center, so that leaves a lot of floor time for Lampe (this is under the notion that they don't try to play Zarko at backup PF). Hopefully he can step up.


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## Arclite (Nov 2, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>BigAmare</b>!
> Adding up all averages is useless because guys like Lampe, Voshkul or Hunter might get DNP every once in a while at least.


I only did the top 9 players in the rotation because I'm figuring they WON'T get DNP's. Hunter might possibly get some situational DNP's, but he'll still be a part of the rotation and his numbers don't have a real effect on our team stats anyways.


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

*Re: Re: Re: 2004-05 Predict the Stats*



> Originally posted by <b>Arclite</b>!
> 
> 
> There isn't? He played 40 minutes per post all-star break, and he played the best basketball of his career, and he was shouldering a MUCH heavier load in that period of time offensively than he'll have to this year. There's no reason that Amare shouldn't get at least 38 minutes a night. If we had Stromile Swift or Brian Skinner or somebody backing him up it'd be different, but Amare is so much better than our bench bigs there's just no way he'll get less than 38, IMO. We improved our depth and I love our bench rotation at the 1-3, but we're not the Memphis Grizzlies.
> ...


I have no doubt that a healthy Amare can play 40 minutes, but can he play tough defense for 40 minutes? Last season he didn't play very well on defense and I suspect if had, his foul total would go up. But if the Suns are totally dependent on him being on the court for his offense, I doubt his defense will improve as much as needed.


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## RJ May (Feb 10, 2004)

With JJ and Shawn being the best defenders on the team, they will get 36 minutes or more.

And what happens if JJ blow up this year? How much time will Q see?


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## ChristopherJ (Aug 10, 2004)

I think nash will get more then 14 ppg. He was averaging around 18 ppg before cuban brought in all those stars. With phoniex he should get more and probably raise amare and marion points ppg as well.


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## Arclite (Nov 2, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>KidCanada101</b>!
> I think nash will get more then 14 ppg. He was averaging around 18 ppg before cuban brought in all those stars. With phoniex he should get more and probably raise amare and marion points ppg as well.


"all those stars" -

Nowitzki : Stoudemire
Finley : Marion 
Walker : Johnson
Jamison : Richardson
Nash : Nash
Howard : Barbosa
Daniels : ?

Not that far off, in my opinion, from an offensive power standpoint. More shooting ability on the Mavericks' side, but more power and speed on the other side.


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

Nash's scoring will depend a lot on the kind of defenses the Suns are facing. Over the last couple of seasons, opponents have packed the lane to stop Stoudemire and guys driving the basket. If they continue to do that, Nash will score a bunch of points shooting three's.

If opponents go to a more conventional man to man defense, I would expect Nash's scoring to go down but his assist total to skyrocket. Not many guys can defense Stoudemire in man coverage and doubling Amare will leave someone open.


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## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

Suns should start their best players.....

PG- Nash
SG- QRich
SF- Joe
PF- Marion
C- Amare


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>ThatBlazerGuy</b>!
> Suns should start their best players.....
> 
> PG- Nash
> ...


That would be a disaster. You need some guys to role play. Q-Rich should accept coming off the bench and be geared up to try and win the 6th man of the year award. If he does, the Suns should be fantastic.


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## The Main Man (Aug 10, 2004)

Amare- Lead league in FTA's


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## Captain Obvious (Jun 15, 2003)

PG- Nash 32 mpg 14 ppg 8 apg
SG- JJ 30 mpg 13 ppg 4 rpg 4 apg
SF- Marion 38 mpg 18 ppg 9 rpg
PF- Amare 38 mpg 20 ppg 9 rpg
C- Voskuhl 20 mpg 5 ppg 4 rpg

Bench:
Q- 26 mpg 12 ppg 5 rpg
Barbosa- 16 mpg 7 ppg
Jacobsen- 12 mpg 5 ppg
Lampe- 14 mpg 5 ppg
Hunter- 12 mpg 2 ppg 1 bpg
Carbakapa- 10 mpg 4 ppg

They'll score a lot, but they may give up even more.


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>Captain Obvious</b>!
> PG- Nash 32 mpg 14 ppg 8 apg
> SG- JJ 30 mpg 13 ppg 4 rpg 4 apg
> SF- Marion 38 mpg 18 ppg 9 rpg
> ...


Using a target plan, I'd try to keep Marion and Stoudemire's minutes closer to 35. After two months of competition in the summer and 82 games (plus preseason), it is important they are not totally worn down by the end of the season.

If everyone stays healthy (that'll be the day), I can't see Carbakapa and Vroman getting regular minutes. They will probably have more "Did Not Play" games than games with signficiant minutes if everyone else stays healthy. For that reason, I think Lampe and Hunter will get more minutes unless they stink the place up.


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## guyinabox (Sep 4, 2004)

PG- Nash 32 mpg 14 ppg 9 apg
SG- JJ 30 mpg 13 ppg 4 rpg 4 apg
SF- Marion 38 mpg 18 ppg 9 rpg
PF- Amare 38 mpg 20 ppg 9 rpg
C- Voskuhl 20 mpg 5 ppg 5 rpg

Q- 26 mpg 12 ppg 5 rpg
Barbosa- 20 mpg 11 ppg
Jacobsen- 8 mpg 3 ppg
Lampe- 14 mpg 5 ppg
Hunter- 12 mpg 2 ppg 1 bpg
Carbakapa- 10 mpg 4 ppg


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## RJ May (Feb 10, 2004)

*Joe 30-32 minutes?*

Joe is arguably the best defender on the suns team. There's no way he sits on the bench 18mins. Joe will get atleast 36 minutes because of his ability to play 3 positions alone, not to mention
his D. I think Barbosa minutes will suffer the most because JJ will probably run some time at point guard. If he only gets 30 min, I'll 
be very surprised.


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## Amareca (Oct 21, 2002)

Predicting Amare to average 20/9 is ridiculous considering he did more than that this season already and much more when he came back from his injury.


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>Amareca</b>!
> Predicting Amare to average 20/9 is ridiculous considering he did more than that this season already and much more when he came back from his injury.


It depends. If the Suns go to a run and gun offense, Amare will not get as many touches as he would in the half court. My guess is that the Suns will score a lot of points and have as many as six guys averaging 10 points or more a game. Last year they had only three.


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## whiterhino (Jun 15, 2003)

Well for once, I think a teams fans are underrating their team instead of overating it, congrats, it's refreshing to see  

I for one think the Suns are going to be a "surprise" team this year and cruise into the playoffs easily at the 5th or 6th spot and possibly WIN a first round series. I think you a center away from being AWESOME but I think that Center is already on your roster.....Marciej Lampe is going to be HUGE and I think it's gonna start happening before the season ends. I also don't think Zarko is NEARLY as bad as some of you stated, I think that injury effected him a lot and he'll come to training camp with something to prove and will. 
I'm also of the opinion that QRich was a steal and will blow up for you this season and surpass Joe Johnson. I also think Jackson Vroman is going to turn out very good. Your roster is stacked, the defense may not be there yet but I think that will improve as well. 

Shawn Marion
Amare Stoudemire
Steve Nash
Quenton Richardson
Joe Johnson
Marceij Lampe
Jake Voskul
Leandro Barbosa
Zarko Cabarkapa
Casey Jacobsen
Jackson Vroman
Hunter ( I think he sucks just my opinion though)

Also, what is up with your awesome PG of the future over in Europe....Milos Vujacic, is he EVER coming over? When you guys signed Nash I took it as a bad sign about Vujacic which sucks because i think he's do well.


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

Vujanic has a very expensive buyout, so he was never really being considered for this season. Next year is more of a possibility, but only if there are some other moves.

Next summer the Suns are likely to be in the market to trade for a center unless Lampe or Hunter surprise. Their main trade bait will be Jacobsen (a very good outside shooter), Carbakapa (especially it he returns to his pre-injury performance level), Eisley (entering his last season on his contract), and Yuta Tabuse (a high speed TJ Ford type PG) to go along with two first round draft picks (their own unless it is owed to the Spurs) and the Chicago pick (unless they are in the top 3). For the right guy, they could trade all of them, which would open space for Vujanic.


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## Scinos (Jun 10, 2003)

I'll take a guess...

C - Voskuhl: 24 mpg, 5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 49% FG.
PF - Amare: 38 mpg, 22 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 2 apg, 48% FG.
SF - Marion: 36 mpg, 17.5 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 apg, 45% FG.
SG - JJ: 36 mpg, 15 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 apg, 41% FG.
PG - Nash: 34 mpg, 15 ppg, 3.0rpg, 9.5apg, 47% FG.

SG/SF - Richardson: 24mpg, 12.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 40% FG.
PF/C - Lampe: 18 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg, 49% FG.
C - Hunter: 12mpg, 2 ppg, 2 rpg, 1 bpg, 44% FG.
PG - Barbosa: 14mpg, 6ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 45% FG.

Rest of the minutes go to the other bench guys: Jacobsen, Vroman, Zarko...etc.

I agree, the Suns will score a lot of points this season. Hopefully the defense can improve too.


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

I would not write Jacobsen completely out of the mix. Jacobsen can is a vastly better spot up shooter than Marion, JJ, or Q. Considering how teams try to pack the paint to stop Amare, Casey may be needed to stretch the defenses and keep opponents from playing zone.


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## Scinos (Jun 10, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>azirishmusic</b>!
> I would not write Jacobsen completely out of the mix. Jacobsen can is a vastly better spot up shooter than Marion, JJ, or Q. Considering how teams try to pack the paint to stop Amare, Casey may be needed to stretch the defenses and keep opponents from playing zone.


That's a good point. It's just tough to find minutes at the 2/3, assuming Q gets most of the backup minutes. Jacobsen and Zarko are pushed out of the main rotation. Will Marion be playing some PF again this season ? If he does, then I guess Jacobsen will get some minutes. I think Nash will keep the defense honest most of the time, he's around a 41% shooter from 3. Amare should be able to pick up a couple of assists per game just by reversing the ball out to Nash.


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