# Draft Lottery Intrigue



## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

So beyond the fact that Brooklyn gets Dwight if they win the lottery or possibly even if they get a top 3 pick, Portland gets that pick if it's not top 3. Also, if anyone outside the top 7 jumps up in the lottery, the Jazz get into the lottery via the Warriors' pick. Given the future declining protection on that pick and the Jazz' current youth, though, I don't know if they want to inherit that pick. Minnesota's pick goes to New Orleans, regardless, because it's unprotected.

I think this is a very deep draft with not much superstar potential. I can see double digit NBA starters coming out of this class with another 8-10 quality role players. 

You also have my personal favorite conspiracy theory that Stern promised the new Hornets ownership group that they would win the lottery. Here's my favorite scenario:

1) *Hornets* - _The Brow_ (immediately followed by amnestying Okafor)
2) *Warriors* - _MKG_ (perfect high motor guy for Andrew Bogut and Mark Jackson's new defense-heavy Warriors)
3) *Bobcats* - _T-Rob_ (nice, versatile building block to pair with Kemba and... well... nobody else)
4) *Wizards* - _Drummond_ (great compliment for Nene's skillset)
5) *Cavs* - _Beal_ (great running mate for Irving)
6) *Kings* - _Barnes_ (ideal fit for this team)
7) *Blazers* - _Perry Jones_ (just the type of athletic rebounder you would want in the frontcourt with LA)
8) *Raptors* - _Damian Lillard_ (assuming Jonas Valanciunas signs, Lillard would allow them to amnesty Calderon and make a play in free agency)
9) *Pistons* - _Dion Waiters_ (potential star to put next to Brandon Knight)
10) *Hornets* - _Kendall Marshall_ (immediately followed by resigning Eric Gordon at all costs)
11) *Blazers* - _Jeremy Lamb_ (just the sort of rangy defender/mid-range shooter that would look nice next to Wes Matthews)
12) *Bucks* - _Tyler Zeller_ (immediately followed by amnestying Gooden)
13) *Suns* - _Austin Rivers_ (combo guard to move them into the post-Nash era)
14) *Rockets* - _Jared Sullinger_ (could open the door for Scola to get packaged with KMart for a star wing player)


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## 29380 (Feb 23, 2009)

Biyombo and Robinson would be a nice but undersized frontcourt like Zo and Grandmama.


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## FSH (Aug 3, 2002)

its crazy how far Dion Waiters has climb up draft boards. But the last time that happened with a Syracuse Guard that didnt turn out to well =x


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## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

I could actually see Utah loving that eighth pick, as it would just let them put Lamb next to Hayward and would solve a bunch of their perimeter issues.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Utah would probably be better of moving Jefferson or Milsap to acquire a veteran guy like Iguodala rather than adding another young guy. Inexperience is their problem now.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

I have this weird feeling the Cavs are gonna win it again.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

*Hmmm...*



Floods said:


> I have this weird feeling the Cavs are gonna win it again.


If they do, I think they have to make a max offer to Eric Gordon. Irving/Gordon/Caspi/Tristan/Brow would be an amazing young core.


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## Dissonance (Jul 21, 2004)

Suns with the miracle jump up....


Then I woke up.



Be interesting if Blazers got lucky again after what's happened to them.


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## roux (Jun 20, 2006)

The biggest jump ever was when the bulls went from the 9 slot up to 1 get rose.... my bucks have no chance and another draft of another bust or role player is upon me.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

*Re: Hmmm...*



RollWithEm said:


> If they do, I think they have to make a max offer to Eric Gordon. Irving/Gordon/Caspi/Tristan/Brow would be an amazing young core.


Gordon's not worth a max. And even if he was, Cleveland wouldn't be the place. An undersized, offensively-oriented two guard isn't what they need next to Irving.

EDIT: And I don't like Anthony Davis at center.


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## TheAnswer (Jun 19, 2011)

I hope the Nets get their pick back, would have to be from 1-3. That would make things interesting in the D12 dilemma and resigning Deron.


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## BlakeJesus (Feb 1, 2006)

For entertainments sake I hope the Nets get to keep that pick.


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## Dissonance (Jul 21, 2004)

Forgot only way Blazers win it is if they jump from 11. In that case, New Orleans needs some hope and EG isn't it.


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

New Orleans would be better off S&Ting Eric Gordon for someone who still has some rookie contract left.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

*If only...*



MemphisX said:


> New Orleans would be better off S&Ting Eric Gordon for someone who still has some rookie contract left.


I just hope he doesn't leave for nothing. If he just jets, the Hornets will have gotten Damian Lillard or Kendall Marshall (with Minnesota's pick) and Aminu for Chris Paul. That's deplorable. Do you have any idea how excited I was about watching this team?:

PG Jack/Dragic
SG Kevin Martin/Belinelli
SF Ariza/Odom
PF Scola/Landry
C Okafor/Kaman

For one glorious day, we had talks of playoffs around my office. But alas, David Stern decided instead to burn a bag of poop on New Orleans' porch to benefit Donald Sterling. The only way to atone for those sins, in my eyes, would be to let that Minnesota pick hop up into the top 3.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

So it looks like the lottery is Wednesday before Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. That's sooner than I originally thought. Let's get it in!


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

Leggo Raptors!


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

I have to say I'm pulling for both the Hornets' pick and the Wovles' pick to jump up into the top 3... if only for the conspiracy theory implications.


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## JonMatrix (Apr 8, 2003)

Just wait and listen to the conspiracy chatter if the Hornets and Nets end up drafting 1 and 2.

This lottery is huge for the Nets. They could be a contender in the east next year or be in contention for the #1 pick in 2013 based off of whether they keep this year's first rounder or not.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Wonder if the Magic trade the Nets Howard if they get the #2 pick. Is MKG and Brook a good enough package?


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## JonMatrix (Apr 8, 2003)

It could be. I think a top 3 pick is the only way Orlando sends Dwight to the Nets. The Magic will probably try to get them to throw in Marshawn Brooks or at least another first rounder as well. But this is Orlando, so they'll probably just ask for the pick or Lopez. :laugh:

Getting the top 3 pick and putting it in a package for Dwight is the only way they keep Deron. Even secret collusion means nothing now after what Dwight pulled this year. Deron seemed pretty pissed after the trade deadline.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

The real question is, do the Nets trade the #1 pick for Dwight if they get it. I mean Dwight pretty much is what you're hoping Anthony Davis can be.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Of course you do if you're New Jersey and of course you make that trade if you are Orlando.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

There's a few teams that really have to have that top pick though. The Nets need a good start in Brooklyn. Charlotte has never had a franchise player in their brief, pathetic history. The Wizards might need it more than anyone, they have an absolutely terrible situation brewing.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

RollWithEm said:


> Of course you do if you're New Jersey and of course you make that trade if you are Orlando.


There's arguments for either, from the Nets perspective. Do you really want to mortgage your future so you can go toe-to-toe with LeBron and Wade, a battle which you will most likely lose? Also I don't watch much college but apparently Anthony Davis projects as a much better offensive player than Dwight. Could easily end up the better player overall. On the other hand, contention down the road is never guaranteed, so might as well seize the immediate opportunity.


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## JonMatrix (Apr 8, 2003)

Will Deron be willing to re-sign and wait for him to develop? They could land at #4, lose the pick to Portland, therefore losing a legit chance at Dwight, and probably losing Deron as well. The team would open its first season in Brooklyn lucky to win 30 games. 

A lot of teams are in need this year though. Charlotte needs a franchise player as much as any team in history has ever needed one. Washington is on the verge of disaster. New Orleans loves Tom Benson but has been lukewarm to the Hornets even when they had Chris Paul (minus the 57 win season a few years back). The talent disparity in the league is huge right now, but especially so in the East.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

I don't think Anthony Davis projects to be a better professional at all. Physically he is not ready. Unless you think the guy is Garnett, but I'm not sure where that is coming from. Last year was a down year for college basketball.


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## JonMatrix (Apr 8, 2003)

He's got a lot of work to do in the weight room. He'll have some growing pains for sure. Lots of high risk/high reward players in this draft.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

HKF said:


> I don't think Anthony Davis projects to be a better professional at all. Physically he is not ready. Unless you think the guy is Garnett, but I'm not sure where that is coming from. Last year was a down year for college basketball.


This is the type of post that could come back to haunt you when someone digs it up in 5 - 7 years.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

HKF said:


> I don't think Anthony Davis projects to be a better professional at all. Physically he is not ready. Unless you think the guy is Garnett, but I'm not sure where that is coming from. Last year was a down year for college basketball.


A young Garnett is who he reminds me of most. But he clearly needs another 20-30lbs.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

I just don't see future NBA superstar in him. I feel like you have to watch the talent they are going against. The NBA is a total different beast. Garnett was a 20/10 player from his second year to his 14th year in the league. I don't see Davis as that good. Meh, it's my opinion.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Yeah, I'm not polishing a bust in Springfield for Davis. I'm just saying that Davis reminds me of a teenaged Garnett. I don't expect him to be as good as one of the greatest players in the history of the game, but I don't see a Howardesque post-defense monster when I look at him.


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## Wade County (Jun 22, 2003)

HKF said:


> I just don't see future NBA superstar in him. I feel like you have to watch the talent they are going against. The NBA is a total different beast. Garnett was a 20/10 player from his second year to his 14th year in the league. I don't see Davis as that good. Meh, it's my opinion.


Garnett didnt average 20/10 til his 4th year. Semantics I know, just sayin' though.


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

This draft is way overrated. Not even close to 2008 IMO even after knowing about the careers of Beasley/Mayo.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

The overall value of this draft is a pretty controversial topic right now. I actually believe the hype. As I stated in the OP, I think the draft is super deep but with no superstars. There are a ton of Paul Millsap and Aaron Afflalo level quality starters in this draft. I just don't see any Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard types (outside of possibly the Brow).


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

Davis is clearly the best prospect in this draft, but he's pretty much just a really good project right now. He might even have another little growth spurt in him for all we know. If you look at him right now, he's certainly not an impact player in the NBA. He does have the potential to be one, and that puts him ahead of those other guys. It's going to be awhile before we figure how he develops physically and how his skills evolve. He certainly looks like he could be a dominant defender, a lot more than Oden ever gave me that impression.


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

LMAO...nobody appreciates defense. Davis will be an instant impact player on defense alone. His shot blocking and foot speed will be unmatched by any big in the league.


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## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

I mean......are we gonna pretend that Drummond doesn't have the potential to be a perennial all-star? Whether you think he gets there or not, he's at worst an extremely high upside project as well.


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## GNG (Aug 17, 2002)

Hope the Bobcats get the first pick. No way Jordan could screw _that _up, amiright?


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

If the Bobcats get the first pick, the Brow might have Kwame written all over him.


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

I am certainly not the type to give MJ a break over his drafting, but it's not like that was the best draft ever to win the lottery. If he'd taken Gasol the Wizards might have eventually been mediocre. I'm a lot more pissed about Ammo. Kwame is an NBA player, even a useful one of sorts. Plus I could care less about the Wizards.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

Bogg said:


> I mean......are we gonna pretend that Drummond doesn't have the potential to be a perennial all-star? Whether you think he gets there or not, he's at worst an extremely high upside project as well.


No I like him. I think he can at least be one of the 3 best players on a contender.

Problem being that there are so many toxic situations in the league right now. If Drummond or any of the other projects land in a place like Washington, Charlotte, or Sac, they're set to fail. Cavs or Hornets would be the best place for him.


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## Pacers Fan (Aug 25, 2002)

I definitely don't think this draft is very good top to bottom. There are some high-potential guys like Drummond, Perry Jones, Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal, Jeremy Lamb, and Austin Rivers, but it seems like this draft is just a notch worse than most drafts. Robinson, Drummond, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Barnes should be top ten picks, not top five. Anthony Davis shouldn't be the consensus #1, maybe top 3. Beal, Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Lamb should be projected fringe lottery. Guys like Moultrie, Leonard, Terrence Jones, Zeller, Lillard, and Marshall shouldn't even be sniffing the lottery.

I definitely see a lot of role players in this draft. Barnes, Robinson, Sullinger, and the three top SG's should find no struggles to be 12-18 ppg players (I'd say Barnes is higher), but if I were a rebuilding team, I'd have second and third guesses about taking Drummond or Perry Jones over John Henson or Kendall Marshall. Simply, everyone has a lot of work to do on offense, and every lotto team except for Charlotte, New Orleans, and maybe Toronto I could see passing up some of the higher potential guys in favor of role players who already know how to play their role.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Do you know what the odds of landing a cornerstone player in the top 5 are? About 33%. This draft really isn't any different than most others. Except, perhaps, that teams will still be digging up useful role-players in the 40-50 range. It's amazing that 2003 is still warping people's perceptions all these years later.


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## Dissonance (Jul 21, 2004)

Even if it ends up overhyped or not as good as people think, still light years better than 2011.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

I mean, really, last year the drafting of role-players started with pick #2, at least some of these guys this year (i.e. not named Davis) project out as impact players or possible impact players. I'm sure the Cavs wish they could have landed a Harrison Barnes at #4 rather than a replacement level PF.


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## 29380 (Feb 23, 2009)

2011 was not bad several players from it are already key contributors to their teams.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

2011 was pretty awful. There was one impact player, most of the lottery teams ended up with guys whose _upside_ was "average NBA player".


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## 29380 (Feb 23, 2009)

E.H. Munro said:


> 2011 was pretty awful. There was one impact player, most of the lottery teams ended up with guys whose _upside_ was "average NBA player".


Still would not call it awful, awful is 2000 when Kenyon Martin is the #1 pick and arguably the best player in the draft was a second round pick.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

Knicks4life said:


> Still would not call it awful, awful is 2000 when Kenyon Martin is the #1 pick and arguably the best player in the draft was a second round pick.


I just went to look up that draft to see who you were talking about... and wow. That is absolutely pathetic.


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## JonMatrix (Apr 8, 2003)

This draft could end up being pretty bad when it's all said and done if the potential guys like Davis, Perry Jones, Andre Drummond, etc all flop. 

Davis could be a superstar, a Tyson Chandler type defensive specialist, or a complete flop. He's shown nice footwork in the post. But he's way too skinny and looked passive at times on offense.

Only saw a few Baylor games, but Perry Jones looks like he takes games off. Not sure about his passing abilities but he kinda reminds me of Lamar Odom. That could just be because of the effort thing though.

I feel like MJ will pick Harrison Barnes anywhere from #2 down.


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

2011 has Irving and Valanciunas.


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## Dissonance (Jul 21, 2004)

Looking forward to seeing Valanciunas.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

2000 and 2001 was maybe the worst two year stretch in draft history.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Knicks4life said:


> Still would not call it awful, awful is 2000 when Kenyon Martin is the #1 pick and arguably the best player in the draft was a second round pick.


And yet K-Mart is much better than the #4 pick from 2011. And essentially you're trying to prop up 2011 by comparing it to the worst draft since the Cocaine Blues draft. And that pretty much makes my point about just how bad 2011 was.


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## 29380 (Feb 23, 2009)

Tristan Thompson could end up being better than Kenyon Martin. :whoknows:


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

RollWithEm said:


> 2000 and 2001 was maybe the worst two year stretch in draft history.


I'm going to disagree here. 2001 was actually a pretty good draft that gets a bad rep because the people picking at the top were Michael Jordan and Jerry Krause. But there were quite a few impact players drafted that year and useful players were being picked into the 50s. I'm not sure what more you can ask of a draft. 

Would it be nice if it produced an annual top 10 player? Sure. But, believe it or not, most drafts don't produce those kinds of players. 2001 had four guys that have had individual seasons at that level (Parker, Arenas for certain, Johnson and Gasol have both been close). Compare the results against 2006 or 2007, for example. 2007 had Durant, but there were only three other guys that are impact players, and only one of those has any chance at being a top 10 player (the good Gasol).


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Knicks4life said:


> Tristan Thompson could end up being better than Kenyon Martin. :whoknows:


Doubtful. Not unless he suddenly sprouts an offensive game in his 20s. I'm not holding my breath. There's very little difference between someone like Thompson and someone like Kenny Faried (honestly I like Faried more).


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

E.H. Munro said:


> I'm going to disagree here. 2001 was actually a pretty good draft that gets a bad rep because the people picking at the top were Michael Jordan and Jerry Krause. But there were quite a few impact players drafted that year and useful players were being picked into the 50s. I'm not sure what more you can ask of a draft.
> 
> Would it be nice if it produced an annual top 10 player? Sure. But, believe it or not, most drafts don't produce those kinds of players. 2001 had four guys that have had individual seasons at that level (Parker, Arenas for certain, Johnson and Gasol have both been close). Compare the results against 2006 or 2007, for example. 2007 had Durant, but there were only three other guys that are impact players, and only one of those has any chance at being a top 10 player (the good Gasol).


2007 might have been worse than 2001, but 2006 was so much better than 2000 it's a joke. That's why the stretch I mentioned is still worse.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

RollWithEm said:


> 2007 might have been worse than 2001, but 2006 was so much better than 2000 it's a joke. That's why the stretch I mentioned is still worse.


Yeah, but 2001 was still a good draft. If you want to say that 2000 was the worst draft since the Cocaine Blues draft (1986), sure. But there's no need to be dragging down '99 or '01 by lumping them in with 00. Just as it would be a mistake to say "2010 & 2011 were a really shitty two year run" based on the fact that 2011 sucked balls.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Did anyone else notice that 9 of the first 16 picks in the draft (due to trades) including the #1 overall will be made by western conference teams? What is the deal with the New York teams trading their first rounders?


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## 29380 (Feb 23, 2009)

RollWithEm said:


> What is the deal with the New York teams trading their first rounders?


Knicks traded their pick for capspace, Nets traded their because Billy Kings is their GM.

What about the Wolves trading a lottery pick for Marko Jaric.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Knicks4life said:


> What about the Wolves trading a lottery pick for Marko Jaric,


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## Jamel Irief (May 19, 2002)

:


RollWithEm said:


>


Is this a joke? Mchale made the native trade.

And it was a lotto pick AND cassell.


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