# Believe the Hype?



## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

I have had some thoughts about hype. Especially about Sebastian Telfair.

Why does hype exist? I think the answer is fairly simple. Hype exists in basketball as a result of something special, wether it be phenominal play or an attribute that is unmatched. Lebron James was hyoed for both his abilitues and his physical stature. Yao Ming was hyped mostly for his Size and agility, his skills hadn't been evalutated enough. 

So IMO hype is a product or result of a observation by multiple people who are paid to evlauate.

Companies like Adidas will gamble to some extenet on HS players, but I have heard nothing of Shoe deals for Dwight Howard or Shawn Livingston.


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## mook (Dec 31, 2002)

that's an interesting point. I suppose shoe companies have become a capitalist form of talent evaluation. they put a price tag on an athlete with a shoe contract that's completely independent from team scouts. 

it's a little reassuring to me to know that somebody other than my team's managemnt is willing to gamble some serious cash on our draftee's long-term prospects.


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## kaydow (Apr 6, 2004)

Hype is funny Schilly. In 1996 there was a tall, skinny, athletic guard coming out of high school who Dick V. said "doesn't have NBA Range, can't walk and chew gum at the same time, and has no busness entering the NBA draft." With the #13th pick Kobe Bryant was taken by Charlotte (and then traded for Divac, of course) The Lakers were chastised by the media for buying into the hype and trading a proven NBA Big Man for a high school kid--a high school kid with flaws, to boot. For all we heard about Kobe lacking a "J" back then, he seems to have figured that out. Now, mainly because of that trade, Jerry West is widely recognized as a genious. It seems like Kobe would have been a "can't miss" prospect now, but back then he was anything but. We can only hope Telfair with turn this years #13 pick into something close.


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## cimalee (Apr 17, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>kaydow</b>!
> Hype is funny Schilly. In 1996 there was a tall, skinny, athletic guard coming out of high school who Dick V. said "doesn't have NBA Range, can't walk and chew gum at the same time, and has no busness entering the NBA draft." With the #13th pick Kobe Bryant was taken by Charlotte (and then traded for Divac, of course) The Lakers were chastised by the media for buying into the hype and trading a proven NBA Big Man for a high school kid--a high school kid with flaws, to boot. For all we heard about Kobe lacking a "J" back then, he seems to have figured that out. Now, mainly because of that trade, Jerry West is widely recognized as a genious. It seems like Kobe would have been a "can't miss" prospect now, but back then he was anything but. We can only hope Telfair with turn this years #13 pick into something close.




did dickie v really say that about kobe


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## kaydow (Apr 6, 2004)

I remember it like it was yesterday. Dicky V was analyzing the draft that year and that is what he said almost word for word, including the walk/chew gum deal (which was obviously too harsh). Remeber the highlights of Kobe dunking in his high school games? When he would put his fist together and point his elbows out? It looked like a flippin "And 1" tourny. Like the game just stopped when he threw down. Anyways, Dicky V was all ticked off about high school kids (he pretty much still is--just more so back then) coming out early. Even back then you could see Kobe had freekish athleticism, but why do you think he slipped to #13? He may not have been as uncoordinated as Dicky V said, but he was ackward at times. And although his jumper looked fluid to me, it didn't go in very much (see playoffs vs Utah/end of game #4/3 air balls)


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## el_Diablo (May 15, 2003)

kobe slipped a bit because he told other teams (at least the nets) that he would only play for the lakers (or something like that). and teams probably had a little more reservations about high schoolers at that point.

and about dicky v, doesn't he still think that anyone who hasn't played 4 years in college suck?


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

From what I recall Dickie V has only given 2 high school players his "blessing" to enter the NBA draft. The first was Kevin Garnett, and the second was Lebron James.


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

For every player hyped that comes thru, there's several who don't. In a way, it's not really fair to the player and the bottom line is that it's all for $$$.

Adidas hyped this kid as he has a great story line, winning smile, excellent pedigree, AND, he has shown he can dominate most HS PG's. 

We cut a deal to draft at #13 and everybody makes money from it. The kid gets his money from Adidas and a contract befitting a #13 pick in the NBA lottery. Adidas gets $$ for shoe sales and maybe other clothing while they market him, and we get a guarantee from Adidas for buying an "X" amount of seats and our own sales of merchandise. 

If the kid pans out, all the better for everyone. If not, we go on to the next marketing darling and keep pushing the bottom line. The NBA is all about marketing- and we're just another fish in a big pond.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

The #1 reason Telfair gets hype is because he's from New York City. That is obvious.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

My brother in Law is from NYcity, he didn't get drafted ...

HS Basketball in NYC is very tough competition wise.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

Schilly,

I have heard the hype on your bro.


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## KingSpeed (Oct 30, 2003)

Can't walk and chew gum at the same time?

Please.

I heard POSITIVE hype about Kobe Bryant during his senior year in high school. I CLEARLY remember him being talked about as "The Next One."

I totally remember it. This guy named Kobe Bryant is The Next One. I remember people saying he was "Grant Hill with a jumper" and all sorts of stuff. I was rather surprised he went as LOW as #13 and I do NOT remember thinking that West was taking a chance. I remember thinking "Wow, the Lakers just got the REAL next Michael Jordan (not Harold Miner, Stackhourse, or Grant Hill) to play with Shaq."


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## dkap (May 13, 2003)

Agreed. There was lots of positive talk about Kobe coming out of HS, and I don't recall a single person saying the Lakers took a big gamble trading away Divac.

Vitale and Vescey.... Must be something about the V's that results in idiotic banter. Put a muzzle on those guys.

Dan


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## kaydow (Apr 6, 2004)

I thought Kobe would be good back then too. I didn't think he'd be THIS good. Point is, Kobe did have his critics back then, and people were FURIOUS when the Lakers traded Divac for Bryant. Go back & look it up. Now, it seems that Charlotte got the shaft on that trade but at the time they were estatic to get a proven big man like Divac. What if Portland traded Telair for Marcus Camby tomorrow? (just for example-please don't add up salaries for me!!) Portland would get a guy that could help at Center THIS season--which they need. Then, in two years Canby is on cruise control towards retirement and Sebastian is killing the whole league--how would we view the trade then? I bet the same fans that loved the Divac/Kobe trade back then now sit around and wonder--what if?


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## jackiejackal (Nov 7, 2002)

Sebastian Telfair has something this team is utterly devoid of.


Charisma

Every picture I see of him I pick up on it.
I will tell you a funny story about him..

When my Slam magazine arrived,I was oohing and ahhing about
Lebron on the cover,and I wondered who that little guy was next to him. They are standing side by side.
Inside pictures have them trading jerseys,hats,etc..lots of color pictures.

I didn't recognize him and thought he had quite an interesting
way about him and when I was done looking through the magazine,wanted to know more about him.
I never saw him in any current stuff,but have always watched
the McDonalds games for years.When the game was over,I just couldn't get enough of this kid,and would look for articles about him.
This kid was so mature and had just a knack for the spotlight,and just had that certain something !

Charisma is what I saw..
long before the draft,and long before I had any idea we could bring him to Portland.
But I had him as my avatar before the draft,and I just couldn't be happier.
The picture in todays paper with him holding out his #31 jersey and just all smiles was so heartwarming.


When he took the court,I just laughed out loud.
He was exactly as i had pictured him in personality..
a fan had just been added to his list..
me.


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## kaydow (Apr 6, 2004)

Right on JJ!! I have to admit that, while I criticized the pick at #13 at first, I'm starting to like this guy. We can analize this for the next 10 + years, but the fact is that Sebastian Telfair is going to be #31 in our play books (and hopefully #1 in our hearts) for a long time. I was hoping we would take a tall, athletic SG at #13, but I like everything I've heard about his drive, work ethic, motivation, etc. I have to admit that the first time I see Telfair throw a no-look dime to Miles at the rim for a flush, I will be slappin' just as many high fives as the guys who liked the pick from day one. I guess I'm getting on the bandwagon--if there's still room??


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## jackiejackal (Nov 7, 2002)

"There are always questions over the high school players entering the draft, but the name I hear the most that teams like as a position player is Sebastian Telfair, a 5-foot-11 point guard out of Lincoln High School in New York City.

Most of the scouts I have talked to feel Telfair is the best point guard in the draft.

And they are not saying he's a prospect, they are saying he's ready to go. "

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4979408/


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## Freshtown (May 24, 2004)

Hello:

To the people in this thread who call Telfair "overrated, hyped, etc. etc." Why?

Why do you say that Bassy is overrated? Is that what ESPN Insider told you? Did you hear it from a sports writer that thinks he's going against the grain by saying Sebastian sucks? For the first few years of Sebastian's hype, he gained a lot of positive attention. But recently, as we've all seen, the hype has brought negativity. The Chad Fords and other writers of the world want to be the "unique writer" that doesn't buy into media hype. A lot of these same guys base their opinions on Sebastian by his predecessors. It goes a little something like this:

1. NYC is a huge, concentrated market where no matter what talent you are, if you got game people will know about you moreso than a high school in middle America.

2. Because such NY phenoms such as Felipe Lopez, Omar Cook, and Lenny Cooke have been marketed as the next great NY point guard and failed, any NY point that comes after will fail by precedent.

3. Therefore, since NYC is a big market, past NY points have failed, and hype usually isn't good, Sebastian Telfair is destined to be a bust.

Sadly enough, thats the thinking that a lot of sports writers do. Well, I'm going against the hype because I am unique and am unlike the conformity in the media. Really now? 

So what makes you think that he's going to be a bust? Omar Cook? PLEASE. Is it his shot? Discount the fact that almost all great players came into the league as mediocre shooters and also pretend like you can't improve your shooting. What else is it? His height? How can a six foot nothing guard make an impact? Discount here great, short point guards like Isiah Thomas and John Stockton, the greatest pure point of all time. Also discount Damon Stoudamire and Earl Boykins. They don't do anything ever, right? Because they're short, remember? What else do you have against him? Handles? Oh I forgot, he has the best handles in the draft, even critics will tell you that. Or his work ethic? Oh ya, he's a gym rat with a hunger to excel. What about his court vision? His passing? What about Mo Cheeks, a HOF point guard and one of the great ones at PG, to be astounded by his natural gift of passing and court vision, his desire to be a true point? Or is it because he's from High School? If thats the case, then Howard, Livingston, Swift, Wright, Jefferson, Josh Smith, and J.R. Smith suck too, right?

T-H-I-N-K.

Regards,

Freshtown


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## KingSpeed (Oct 30, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>kaydow</b>!
> I thought Kobe would be good back then too. I didn't think he'd be THIS good.


I thought he'd be better than this, to be honest.

He was pretty awful in the NBA Finals, game winning shot in Game 2 notwithstanding.

He was a MUCH better player in 2000 and 2001. He has gotten worse. No question about it.


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## KingSpeed (Oct 30, 2003)

Jackie- I'm excited about Telfair too. We can now begin healing our relationship in our mutual excitement about this kid. He has charisma, yes, AND you get a real sense that this kid has serious DESIRE to be a great basketball player. Can't not root for a guy like that.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

I fully believe in Telfair's abilities. I think POR may have found themselves a very special player. It won't be hype if he backs it up in the NBA.

I'm excited to see Telfair on the court in Summer League.


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

*Hype.*

I love it. When I was younger, like most of you, I usually bought into it like you are now. But, as I've grown a bit older I realize it for what it is- just hype.

Telfair has some undeniable attributes and some undeniable detriments that he cannot overcome. Will he be a great player? Of course not- not at 5'10 or 11". Can he be a good player? Sure, but he has a long way to go.

For the vast majority of you jumping off the Sebastian "Adidas" Telfair cliff head-long, just remember in all this hype you don't want to land too hard on your heads.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

I am surprised at the number of people who think Telfair is going to be a star even though they have never seen him play against pro competition. He seems like a good kid with a nice smile, but that won't take him too far when he's getting locked down by someone like Chauncey Billups. I certainly hope Telfair makes it in the league as a star, but the chances of that happening are minimal.


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## KingSpeed (Oct 30, 2003)

Blazer Prophet- you sound like those people who owe me money. Remember all the folks in here who didn't think LeBron would average more than 14 ppg in his rookie year?

Believe the hype. It's true.


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## KingSpeed (Oct 30, 2003)

Tlong- I could say the same thing about you. Why do you think he WON'T be a star when you haven't seen him play against pro competition?


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

*Well, Nate*

I don't owe you and never will. Also, I won't take yours.

Sebastian "Adidas" Telfair- The Hype continues....


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## kaydow (Apr 6, 2004)

Hype or no hype, who's side will you be in when the balls in his hands at the end of the game, Blazer fans? Telfair is going to be in the NBA for a long time, even his critics admit that. His ability to pass alone (even if he never learns to shoot--which I think he will because his shot LOOKS good) will keep him in the league. Look at Raf Alston--dude is going to get Paid after performning so well last year for Miami. Telfair isn't Alston--he's way better. He may be a perennial all star. If not, if he's Avery Johnson instead (which I doubt) will you hate him? I tell you one thing, if he doesn't become a great player, it won't be from lack of effort. The guy has a great work ethic. One thing he won't be is a total bust--out of the league in five years. There are some guys picked ahead of Telfair who will be a bust (see Toronto's #8 & Seattle's #12 picks)


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

Is it just me or does he seem to be getting shorter in the eyes of his local critics?


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## Dan (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Schilly</b>!
> Is it just me or does he seem to be getting shorter in the eyes of his local critics?


The Blazers don't need another 6' guard, who will be abused on defense. I mean, how many times have a guy who's 5'11" ever done anything in this league? At 5'10", it's doubtful he'll be able to make the entry passes into the key. It's really asking a lot of a guy 5'9" to be making the jump directly from high school, to the pros'. I almost wonder if having two of the leagues shortest point guards, Damon at 5'10" and Sebastian, at 5'7", is such a wise thing. It's bad enough Damon gets burned on defense, but Sebastians 5'6" frame is begging to be beaten like a 5'5" rented mule!


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## jackiejackal (Nov 7, 2002)

I am not excited because I think he will be a star ..
I am excited because he doesn't appear like a stupid idiot in front
of the cameras,and yes..actually someone has heard of him !!

I am sick to death of these projects Portland has dragged in here.

My gosh,I can't remember 3/4th of the players never to be seen
again on this club.

His refreshing face is enough to sell me !
His body language as he carries himself..
That cute photo of him holding his jersey out in front of himself
smiling at the jersey.

He has been a player since a kid,he still is a kid !
You can be sure he will not hold up a player card for his identification.

He can actually put together a sentence that you can understand.
Also, I am excited we have a player you might actually see in an article in the bball mags..or on the many bball sites.
And it actually might be something good !!

I like seeing our players in the news or on ESPN...
it's cool..

If Nash is smart,he will continue to weed out the dead wood ,
get rid of these project players and get some good kids together.

Utah is a group of players that Portland could emulate ..
I really like their players.

I think Portland can really put together a good team this year.

And the icing on the cake is, if Sebastian turns out to be a star.


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## jackiejackal (Nov 7, 2002)

"At 5'10", it's doubtful he'll be able to make the entry passes into the key. "

are you kidding me??
Earl Boykins does it all the time.


Damon is one of the worst point guards in the league at dishing the ball.
That is the LARGE problem..not that he is SMALL.


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## Dan (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>jackiejackal</b>!
> "At 5'10", it's doubtful he'll be able to make the entry passes into the key. "
> 
> are you kidding me??
> Earl Boykins does it all the time.



jackie..didn't you see the post that I quoted? didn't you get that the post I made was a joke about the kind of talk Schilly was talking about?


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## jackiejackal (Nov 7, 2002)

ohhhh way back ???
the joke is still on then..errr..i am trying to keep up with the joke vs the smear ..


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

Hey, I agree with HAP!!

At 5'11" (or so the hype sez), he's going to have a more difficult time making certain passes (the ones Damon can't make, but taller PG's can). And, yes, he'll be abused defensively- why people see him as a superstar is beyond me. But, hey, believe the hype!


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>BLAZER PROPHET</b>!
> Hey, I agree with HAP!!
> 
> At 5'11" (or so the hype sez), he's going to have a more difficult time making certain passes (the ones Damon can't make, but taller PG's can). And, yes, he'll be abused defensively- why people see him as a superstar is beyond me. But, hey, believe the hype!


Feed me some more generic 1080 opinions.

People need to stop associating this kids heigh and assming he is Damon reborn.

*Tim Hardaway* listed @ 6' which Bass y will also be listed at since they go by in shoe measurements. Had career apg at over 8. That is factoring his last 3 years or so he averaged less than 6 per game.

*Mugsy Bogues* 5'3" holds records for the Charlotte Hornets (Prior to the move for...

Games Started 501
Minutes Played 19,786
Assists 5,557
APG 8.8
Steals 1067
Turnovers 1,118

Ranked 2nd in
Games Played 632
Stelas Per Game 1.69
Fouls 1,222

Assist to TO Ratio:4.9!

Ok So he can't pass either cause he's too short.

*John Stockton* Listed @ 6'1" so a whole 1" taller...Do I need to post any stats? Ok I will.

18 years in the league
career average of 10.5 APg including oneseason of 14.5 apg.

1st 3 years in the league shot less than 20% for 3 point range.
Dude's too short can't play

other PLayers who were 6'1 in shoes...
Isiah Thomas
Maurice Cheeks
Nate Archibald

I think some who are trying to convonce others to not believe the positive hyp are just as guilt of buying the crap they call Portland Media.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Schilly</b>!
> 
> Feed me some more generic 1080 opinions.
> 
> ...


I don't recall any of those guys jumping directly from high-school to the pros.


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## jackiejackal (Nov 7, 2002)

wait a minute..
who is labeling this kid a superstar??

Gosh,nobody is saying anything unrealistic 
that I can see.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

Telfair better be damn good to justify the Blazers picking him at #13 over guys like Snyder and Jefferson who I believe will be solid pros.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>tlong</b>!
> Telfair better be damn good to justify the Blazers picking him at #13 over guys like Snyder and Jefferson who I believe will be solid pros.


Jefferson was a High Schooler too...at least be consistent in your argument.

Let's be extremely realistic and in the now though as well. I am using players of similar stature to prove a point that just because he is only 6' that doesn't mean he can't prosper. He is the same height as Jameer Nelson who the "Anti-Sabastians" seem to favor.

As far as these guys not being drafted out of high school...How many players were at all in their generation?How Many High School players were drafted between Moses Malon and Kevin Garnett? 

The scope of the draft has changed significantly. There were 8 HS players taken in the 1st round this year. Why? Because the NBA teams wnat to get them now. These are kids who in all likelyhood would all be lotterybound after 1 season in college, not to mention 2, 3 or 4.

Anymmore what does being a senior or even a junior in the draft mean? Well honestly it means that the player did not show enough talent or ability prior to that to be drafted. Last year had Luke Jackson come out he would have been a 2nd round pick. Jameer Nelson probably would also goen in the 2nd round. Most of these guys needed
their full 4 years to be ready to make the jump.

Times have changed like it or not, players are picked on what professional scouts who are paid good money determine to be the best potential down the road.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

Jefferson is 6'9". That is why he is included in my argument. I don't have a problem with drafting guys with size straight from high-school. I believe there is a reason no 6-footer has ever made the jump directly from high-school to the pros. Picking Telfair at #13 was *STUPID!*


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>tlong</b>!
> Jefferson is 6'9". That is why he is included in my argument. I don't have a problem with drafting guys with size straight from high-school. I believe there is a reason no 6-footer has ever made the jump directly from high-school to the pros. Picking Telfair at #13 was *STUPID!*


What is more impressive froma HS player?

42ppg at 6'9" 
or 
33ppg at 6'

Who would have the best advantage?

By Camparison your boy Snyder did this his senior year at Upland High School in Upland Califrnia.
20ppg 10.3 rpg 4.5apg and 3.3bpg.

He then went on to have career shooting of around 30% from 3pnt land in college, which is the same distance as HS where Telfair shot 45%.

Telfairs career #'s in High School keep in mind he was a 4 year starter at the Varsity level.

48.5-fg% 37.7-3pt% 3.5-spg 2.6-rpg 7.4-apg

Wow he can't shoot or pass or score.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

High school statistics are irrelevant. You almost *have* to be a star in high-school just to get a D1 scholarship.


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

*Tlong...*

I can't agree more. We didn't pick A 5'11" PG with the #13 pick because we truely believe he'll be a superstar. It was a marketing decision to right a badly listing ship as the fan base has seriously eroded. There's really no other possibility. Warkenstein "alluded" to this being a "promise pick" in an interview. Now, I heard the interview and while he refused to state it as such, he sure hesitated and tried a couple of different ways to say "yes" without saying the "y" word. 

But, I'm OK with that. Sure, it's a lousy pick if people really believe Telfair is going to be a long time Blazer and lead us to the promised land, but it's a darn good marketing pick as it allows Adidas to continue with their end of the agreement in picking up luxury suites and we'll sell a ton of Telfair merchandise and as we've seen here, the younger kids are ga-ga over him and that creates a new fan base. This is all part of the plan put in place to re-energize our fan base. 

And that, ladies & gentlemen, is what all the hype is about.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>tlong</b>!
> I believe there is a reason no 6-footer has ever made the jump directly from high-school to the pros. Picking Telfair at #13 was *STUPID!*


There is a reason...Non of them declared, because none of them were as good as Telfair is.


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

*Schilly...*

I don't mean to be dense, but I don't "get" your moniker. Could you explain it to me? Just curious.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

*Re: Tlong...*



> Originally posted by <b>BLAZER PROPHET</b>!
> I can't agree more. We didn't pick A 5'11" PG with the #13 pick because we truely believe he'll be a superstar. It was a marketing decision to right a badly listing ship as the fan base has seriously eroded. There's really no other possibility. Warkenstein "alluded" to this being a "promise pick" in an interview. Now, I heard the interview and while he refused to state it as such, he sure hesitated and tried a couple of different ways to say "yes" without saying the "y" word.
> 
> But, I'm OK with that. Sure, it's a lousy pick if people really believe Telfair is going to be a long time Blazer and lead us to the promised land, but it's a darn good marketing pick as it allows Adidas to continue with their end of the agreement in picking up luxury suites and we'll sell a ton of Telfair merchandise and as we've seen here, the younger kids are ga-ga over him and that creates a new fan base. This is all part of the plan put in place to re-energize our fan base.
> ...


Ok so the Blazer and Adidas are willing to combine an estimatead ammount of $15million dollars and hope that if they push enough "Hype" people will ignore how he truelly performs?

Fr just one moment forget about the "Agreement" with adidas and the Blazers, for one moment ignore that Telfair was taken at #13. Let's get to the root of something. WHy in the hell would Adidas sign a kid out of High School to a 11million dollar shoe deal?

Come on guys stop listening to Art Bell and watching the X-Files the conspiracy is a faint breeze at best.


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

*Schilly...*

to answer your question....

1) He's got street cred and he's from New York

2) He's got a famous NBA cousin who plays in new York

3) He's got a winning smile and real charisma

4) He CAN hoop and dominate at the HS level and hopefully that will translate into the NBA

5) Adidas is trying to work harder at edging into Nike's & Rebok's athletic territory

6) It's always a gamble, but if it fails, they go on to the next "darling". If he pans out, then it means more athletes in their stable and more shoe/clothing sales. 

How's that?


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## Dan (Dec 30, 2002)

*Re: Re: Tlong...*



> Originally posted by <b>Schilly</b>!
> 
> Come on guys stop listening to Art Bell and watching the X-Files the conspiracy is a faint breeze at best.


pfft..shows how much you know. George Noory is the main host on that show now, Art does the weekends.

And don't insult Art Bell fans like that!


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

*Re: Schilly...*



> Originally posted by <b>BLAZER PROPHET</b>!
> to answer your question....
> 
> 1) He's got street cred and he's from New York
> ...


Reasons 1,2,3 are irrelevant to Addidas, And1 maybe. Having a famous cousin famous does not one make. And SMile doesn't always equat to a marketing homerun. 

Right you are right. And based on the fact theat they are taking on the likes of Lebron and Iverson (Street cred galore) then you have to assume that they wouldn't take too long of a gamble. Imagine the PR nightmare, with stock holders, of being that wrong
.

I have to assume that a large COrp like Adidas needs to feel extremely confident that the contract offered will not flop.


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## BLAZER PROPHET (Jan 3, 2003)

I'm sure they feel confident- they'd better or some poor young exec will be working as a car hop in a couple of years.

Nonetheless, it's always a gamble for a host of reasons. The player may get hurt, may get into trouble, may simply not pan out. But, it's the art of marketing and I find it real intersting.

I never ceased to be amazed in the ways of marketing and business.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>BLAZER PROPHET</b>!
> I'm sure they feel confident- they'd better or some poor young exec will be working as a car hop in a couple of years.
> 
> Nonetheless, it's always a gamble for a host of reasons. The player may get hurt, may get into trouble, may simply not pan out. But, it's the art of marketing and I find it real intersting.
> ...


Same could hold true of any player at any pick.

Look at the #1 overalls and how many of them don't pan out, wjhen seemingly they dominate at a higher level than What Sebastian has faced.

I want to clarify that I am not saying that he will indeed be a superstar, what I am saying is just becasue of his circumstances (being from HS and being only 6') that doesn't mean that he can't be a superstar. In addition I am saying that at that pick and for this current team he was the best pick to take. Especially in hindsight seeing what they did @22,23 and 46 2 of which I feel were absolute steals at their respective slots.

Here is what the draft grader from NBAdraft.net had to say (and yes I know consider the source, but at least it's non-biased)



> Sure taking Telfair at 13 was a reach, but there's a real chance he would have been gone at 22. And he was the guy they really wanted. The alternative was taking Al Jefferson at 13, and gambling the guy that GM John Nash wanted most would slip to them at 22. Nash has gotten a lot of criticism for this pick because obviously Telfair had a much better chance to fall to them than Jefferson, however Telfair is the guy with more upside and the better pick in the first place. So this pick wasn't so bad. Granted the picks were a couple spots higher, but look for this to be a better draft than the Celtics when all is said and done.


This post is getting a little long so I will give you more of a breakdown on my opinion later.


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## KIDBLAZE (Jul 8, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Schilly</b>!
> 
> Jefferson was a High Schooler too...at least be consistent in your argument.
> 
> ...


:clap: Well said, now quick, e-mail it to that idiot loud mouth on draft night before he comes back next year and is still saying the same oldschool ****.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

*Re: Hype.*



> Originally posted by <b>BLAZER PROPHET</b>!
> I love it. When I was younger, like most of you, I usually bought into it like you are now. But, as I've grown a bit older I realize it for what it is- just hype.
> ...
> For the vast majority of you jumping off the Sebastian "Adidas" Telfair cliff head-long, just remember in all this hype you don't want to land too hard on your heads.


On the other hand, many people were saying similar things in response to the LeBron James hype.

So remember that hype can be warranted before you get *too* condescending towards those who are excited about a talented young prospect.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>tlong</b>!
> I believe there is a reason no 6-footer has ever made the jump directly from high-school to the pros.


And did you "believe there was a reason no perimeter player had ever made the jump directly from high school to the pros" prior to Kobe Bryant being drafted?

Firsts happen. Especially in a dynamic as recent as high schoolers routinely making the leap to the pros.



> Picking Telfair at #13 was *STUPID!*


Yeah. Doing something unexpected and never done before is extremely stupid. Jerry West and whoever drafted Moses Malone (the first high schooler ever drafted) proved that.

High school firsts have generally proven to be great failures (Moses Malone, first high schooler ever drafted. Kevin Garnett, first high schooler drafted in decades. Kobe Bryant, first perimeter high schooler ever drafted. LeBron James, first point guard [for his NBA team] ever drafted).


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## Kezersoze (Mar 3, 2004)

How come Livingston and Howard don't have shoe contracts? I mean Howard is the most TALENTED player in the entire draft and was taken #1 overall. Livingston has that same amazing handles/court vision that Telfair does and he is 6'7! I think Telfair is going to be an awesome player but I don't see why addidas passed on my boys howard/livingston


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## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

Does Telfair have the chance to be a good NBA player? Certainly.
Is he over-hyped? Equally certain.

Would anyone here take Telfair over Howard or Livingston? Telfair is the one with the big shoe deal and all the media attention.....but I don't know of *anyone* who thinks he was the best high-schooler in this draft. (or the best PG)

Yes, Lebron received similar attention......but he was the undisputed #1 pick. 

Go ahead and root for the guy - but temper your expectations.


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## Ed O (Dec 30, 2002)

I agree with many people on this thread. Sebastian is not ALL hype, and he's got a good chance to be a special player.

The reason that he has the big shoe contract is at least partly because of how long he's been on the national stage as a prep phenom; not many freshman dominate teh ABCD camp. I also believe that his NYC background and his relation to Marbury helps, too... people ARE helped when they have hooks to attach to people, and "Marbury's cousin" is a small but effective hook even if people haven't seen him play.

The thing is, to me his hype and his prospects are almost entirely unrelated. Portland drafted him earlier than they should have, IMO, but I think it was for basketball reasons much moreso than for marketing or other non-basketball reasons. Even if the hype DID manage to inflate his draft status with the Blazers, though, I don't think he will get minutes (or at least not many) unless he can play at a high level.

Ed O.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Oldmangrouch</b>!
> 
> Would anyone here take Telfair over Howard or Livingston? Telfair is the one with the big shoe deal and all the media attention.....but I don't know of *anyone* who thinks he was the best high-schooler in this draft. (or the best PG)


So? Draft days are littered with mistakes. Kwame Brown was considered a perfectly legitimate #1 pick, now if people could re-do the draft, he wouldn't have a chance of going #1.

Would *anyone* have picked Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant or Tracy McGrady #1 in their respective drafts, at the time? No. In fact, Garnett was considered a reach and Bryant was considered a gamble.

So what does that prove? Only that NBA GMs are highly risk-adverse and Telfair, like Garnett, Bryant and McGrady before him, is considered an unconventional and highly risky pick.

it also bears mentioning that the best executives are usually the ones who are willing to take risks and thus grab the mistakes made by those executives who pass on the risks.

So, sure...temper your expectations, if you'd like (sage advice for *any* pick, even one as good as the second-best big man in the draft like a Sam Bowie) but claiming that it's already certain that Telfair is either A. over-hyped, B. a mistake or C. guaranteed not to be great, at this early stage makes very little sense.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Ed O</b>!
> 
> Portland drafted him earlier than they should have, IMO


I'm curious: Do you think they drafted him too early if it was a matter of either drafting him at #13 or not drafting him at all?


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## RP McMurphy (Jul 17, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Minstrel</b>!
> 
> 
> So? Draft days are littered with mistakes. Kwame Brown was considered a perfectly legitimate #1 pick, now if people could re-do the draft, he wouldn't have a chance of going #1.
> ...


You're missing his point. A bunch of people on this thread are saying that Telfair is likely to be more successful than Shaun Livingston and Dwight Howard, because Telfair was the only one of the three who the shoe companies felt was a good enough prospect to receive a shoe contract. Oldmangrouch points out that NBA general managers clearly feel that Livingston and Howard are far better prospects than Telfair.

While neither shoe companies nor general managers are perfect, I would trust general managers much more than I would trust a shoe company. Saying that we should believe the Telfair hype just because shoe companies believe the hype is silly, IMO.


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## Ed O (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Minstrel</b>!
> 
> I'm curious: Do you think they drafted him too early if it was a matter of either drafting him at #13 or not drafting him at all?


Based on what I know now, yes. I think the team might have been better off taking Snyder or Jefferson at #13.

Hope he proves me wrong, and I don't begrudge the Blazers for doing what they thought they had to do to get him, but I'm still not convinced that he would not have slid to us at #22 and I think that Snyder and Jefferson were/are significantly better prospects than either of the CSKA guys.

Ed O.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>ArtestFan</b>!
> 
> 
> You're missing his point. A bunch of people on this thread are saying that Telfair is likely to be more successful than Shaun Livingston and Dwight Howard, because Telfair was the only one of the three who the shoe companies felt was a good enough prospect to receive a shoe contract. Oldmangrouch points out that NBA general managers clearly feel that Livingston and Howard are far better prospects than Telfair.


I agree with the sentiment that Telfair is not shown to be a good pick due to his shoe contract. A shoe contract comes for a variety of reasons.

I didn't get the feeling that that was the entirety of his point, just that he mentioned the shoe contract as part of his description of Telfair's hype.

If that *was* the entirety of his point (that the shoe contract doesn't overrule GM evaluations), then we have no disagreements.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

> but I'm still not convinced that he would not have slid to us at #22 and I think that Snyder and Jefferson were/are significantly better prospects than either of the CSKA guys.


You really think that Telfair would have lasted until #22, Ed? 

Nash has come out repeatedly and said that POR knew other teams had contigencies to draft Telfair. That BS was a real possibilty at #15, & Ainge practically spoke of BOS taking him if he was there @ #15. They passed on Snyder. So if POR had taken Al Jefferson as alluded to by reporters and Blazer personnel. Who do they take instead of Telfair? I think there is a real good chance he would have gon at #15. Heck or #18 to N.O, whom Nash said 3 teams, including MIN were angling for contingencies, or MIA at #19, or DEN @ #20, who selected nelson and then traded him. Would they have done the same with Telfair? Whim Kiki spoke very highly of when he worked out for, and then the five or so teams that NAsh said were angling for UTA pick. 

I think it was HIGHLY unlikely that Telfair would have made it to #22. Also, I think Nash pretty much came straight out and said that POR would not have chosen Snyder at #13.

BTW, just for reference. Here is a comparison of Snyder in college and Monya at CSKA. I think parts of euroleague are very similiar in qualtiy of play as college, some maybe moreso.

*2001-02 Nevada - Snyder* 
18g 
.377 fg% 215 shots 
.297 3pt fg% 64 shots 
.625 FT % 
0.7 steals/game  
0.8 blocks/game 
4.6 rbds/game 
1.4 asst/game 
13.7 pts/game 

*2001-02 Saratov - Monya*
40g
.450 fg% 211 shots 
.274 3pt fg% 73 shots
.634 ft %
1.28 steals/game
.98 blocks/game
4.55 rbds/game
1.18 asst/game
7.7 pts/game

*2002-03 Nevada - Snyder* 
32g 31.6min 
.445 fg% 420 shots 
26.8 3pt fg% 123 shots 
63.8 FT % .
0.9 steals/game 
0.8 blocks/game 
8.1 rbds/game 
2.5 asst/game 
16.3 pts/game 

*2002-03 CSKA - Monya*
28g 15.2min
.573 fg% 75 shots
.421 3pt fg% 76 shots
719 ft%
.57 steals/game
.57 blocks/game
3.7 rbds/game
.79 asst/game
7.3 pts/game

*2003-04 Nevada - Snyder* 
34g 31.7min 
.431 FG% 485 shots 
.348 3pt FG% 155 shots 
.731 FT% 
1.0 steals/game 
.06 blocks/game 
5.7 rbds/game 
3.4 asists/game 
18.8 pts/game 

*2003-04 CSKA - Monya*
21g 16.3min
.571 FG% 49 shots
.296 3pt FG% 54 shots
.740 FT%
.5 steals/game
.4 blocks/game
3.0 rbds/game
.6 assts/game
5.9 pts/game

They are about the same age. Really hard to tell here, as Snyder has played a significant of more time and taken a TON of more shot attempts than Monya has.


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## IAMGREAT (May 22, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Kmurph</b>!
> *2001-02 Nevada - Snyder*
> 18g
> .377 fg% 215 shots
> ...


Monya seems to be getting worse though, but that's just stats.


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## el_Diablo (May 15, 2003)

one reason for monya's stats regressing, at least between seasons 2001/2-2002/3, is that he switched saratov to one of the biggest teams in europe, cska. thus he probably played a lot less. and if I'm not mistaken (I don't know euroleague basketball that well), cska strengthened their squad a lot after season 2002/3. at least they we're one the biggest favourites in euroleague last season.

by the way, I have never seen Monija play.


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## IAMGREAT (May 22, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>el_Diablo</b>!
> one reason for monya's stats regressing, at least between seasons 2001/2-2002/3, is that he switched saratov to one of the biggest teams in europe, cska. thus he probably played a lot less. and if I'm not mistaken (I don't know euroleague basketball that well), cska strengthened their squad a lot after season 2002/3. at least they we're one the biggest favourites in euroleague last season.
> 
> by the way, I have never seen Monija play.


I was talking about his two years at CSKA.


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## Ed O (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Kmurph</b>!
> 
> You really think that Telfair would have lasted until #22, Ed?


Maybe. I'd even say probably. I wouldn't say definitely.

I wish Portland had taken a different player (Snyder or Jefferson) and rolled the dice on him slipping to 22.



> Nash has come out repeatedly and said that POR knew other teams had contigencies to draft Telfair.


Well, he's CERTAINLY not going to say anything different than that. He has no reason to either hold his tongue OR say that he reached for the player. I don't think he's lying... I think he's being honest.

But that doesn't mean I think that #13 was a good spot to draft Bassy.



> That BS was a real possibilty at #15, & Ainge practically spoke of BOS taking him if he was there @ #15. They passed on Snyder. So if POR had taken Al Jefferson as alluded to by reporters and Blazer personnel. Who do they take instead of Telfair? I think there is a real good chance he would have gon at #15.


Boston took a PG with their first rounder last year. They MIGHT have taken Telfair, but I doubt it. Whether they would have taken Snyder, or Monia, or Pavel, or Nelson, or either of the guys they took later in the first is impossible for us to say. It's not a slam dunk by any means they would have taken Sebastian, though.



> Heck or #18 to N.O, whom Nash said 3 teams, including MIN were angling for contingencies, or MIA at #19, or DEN @ #20, who selected nelson and then traded him. Would they have done the same with Telfair?


I dunno... but maybe they would have done the same with Telfair... and traded him to Portland.

I don't know why Minnesota would have had an easier time trading up than Portland would have... especially since they could offer better picks in the present draft.

NO taking Telfair, considering their committment to Davis, makes no sense. Miami might have pulled the trigger, but I'm not sure they would have.



> I think it was HIGHLY unlikely that Telfair would have made it to #22. Also, I think Nash pretty much came straight out and said that POR would not have chosen Snyder at #13.


They wouldn't have taken Snyder if what? If Telfair had already been picked? In that case, someone else would have slipped, and with the exeptions of Araujo and Swift, any of the top 12 would have been very good picks at 13.

The Portland brass simply felt they couldn't afford to NOT get Telfair. I hope that they're right, but I think the team might have been better taking a better prospect at 13 and hoping to either move up to the late teens to get him or taking him at 22 if he slipped.

Ed O.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

Chicago has taken PG's with 4 consecutive lottery picks...

Crawford
Williams
Heinrich
Gordon

So how does Boston takeing a PG last year impact they wouldn't his year?


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

Boston already has 3 players on their roster that can play PG including Marcus Banks who they drafted last year and had a solid season. The Celtics also passed on Jameer Nelson who was rated higher than Telfair on most boards. It is extremely doubtful that Boston would have taken Telfair had he been available in my opinion.


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## Sambonius (May 21, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>tlong</b>!
> Boston already has 3 players on their roster that can play PG including Marcus Banks who they drafted last year and had a solid season. The Celtics also passed on Jameer Nelson who was rated higher than Telfair on most boards. It is extremely doubtful that Boston would have taken Telfair had he been available in my opinion.


Yea well you forget, its Ainge. He traded an All Star in Walker with only a season left on his contract for Raef LaFrentz who has 5 years left on his horrid contract, you can't say they wouldn't have picked Telfair, Ainge has publically showed interest in Telfair. Also it doesn't really matter if Nelson was rated higher than Telfair since PJ Ramos was rated higher than Swift but Swift ended up going MUCH earlier than Ramos.


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## tlong (Jan 6, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Sambonius</b>!
> 
> 
> Yea well you forget, its Ainge. He traded an All Star in Walker with only a season left on his contract for Raef LaFrentz who has 5 years left on his horrid contract, you can't say they wouldn't have picked Telfair, Ainge has publically showed interest in Telfair. Also it doesn't really matter if Nelson was rated higher than Telfair since PJ Ramos was rated higher than Swift but Swift ended up going MUCH earlier than Ramos.


Well if I can't say they wouldn't have picked Telfair then you can't say they would have.

:grinning:


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## Ed O (Dec 30, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Schilly</b>!
> Chicago has taken PG's with 4 consecutive lottery picks...
> 
> Crawford
> ...


Let's look at each of the last 4 picks from the Bulls that you mention:

Crawford: was battling his knee injury his rookie year. It looked (and still looks) like he might end up as a 2 guard. This meant that it made SOME sense to pick

Williams: bad motorcycle accident. Out forever, perhaps. Based on that and Crawford's abilities, they picked

Hinrich: pure PG. Looking like a Chicago mainstay, unlike Crawford and Williams. So it wasn't a huge surprise when they picked

Gordon: tweener. He will almost certainly end up playing in the backcourt with Hinrich, and Gordon won't be playing the 1 offensively.

I agree that these picks all right in a row are a bit strange, but Boston's by all accounts happy with Banks, who's not big enough to pair in the same backcourt with Telfair.

While I will concede that we don't know for sure what Ainge is thinking generally about his team, I think that him taking Telfair at #15 (and keeping him) would have been a longshot.

Ed O.


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## jackiejackal (Nov 7, 2002)

Boy if this doesn't just sum up Telfair !

"He has a charismatic value that you can't explain," said Sonny Vaccaro, a Reebok basketball executive who has known Telfair since he was an eighth-grader. "He has that cuteness, the boyishness, the innocence. He disarms you."

On the court, Telfair has the vision and passing skills that few players have had, said Blazers coach Maurice Cheeks, a four-time NBA All-Star point guard. In the sports business world, Telfair is an executive's dream: clean-cut, well-spoken and well-known on the playgrounds.

"Allen Iverson without tattoos," Adidas executive Kevin Wulff said. "


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## dkap (May 13, 2003)

> Hinrich: pure PG.


Ironically, he played largely SG in college. I'd consider him as much of a tweener as the other guys (Crawford and Gordon).

Dan


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## RP McMurphy (Jul 17, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>jackiejackal</b>!
> 
> "He has a charismatic value that you can't explain," said Sonny Vaccaro, a Reebok basketball executive who has known Telfair since he was an eighth-grader. "He has that cuteness, the boyishness, the innocence. He disarms you."


First of all I don't think the fact that he has a nice smile has anything to do with how good of a player he is. Also Sonny Vaccaro is the Dick Vitale of high school basketball. You can pretty much ignore what he says because all he does is give high schoolers more hype than they deserve. He said a couple months ago that as many as fifteen high school players would be in the first round this year.


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## kaydow (Apr 6, 2004)

For everybody that wishes we would have taken K. Snyder--you'll be glad we didn't. The guy will be lucky to develop into an Aaron Mckie. He's thick and can shoot some, but I don't see NBA guard calabar ball handling, quickness, explosiveness. And Jefferson? He may be the better player, but how could he have been the better pick when we already have two PF (SAR, DD) that we can't see to trade and are stuck with? The guy I wanted was Luke Jackson. After he was gone, it didn't matter who we got. IMO, they weren't going to help us this year.


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