# How lottery should go



## fuzzybearpup (May 20, 2004)

*Disclaimer* This is not how I think the actual draft will go. I said the same thing last year and apparently no one understood. This is simply a projection of how I think the teams will finish recordwise and who they should draft given their team needs and talent available. And a little explanation why. Feel free to post intelligent comments if you read the disclaimer.

1. Atlanta: Bogut - Atlanta will have a ton of cap room and tons of positions to fill. They take the big guy from down under to man the middle for years to come and to feed passes to a slashing Josh Smith as well as scoring plenty himself. You don't pass up a center with his potential when you don't have a decent center on your roster.

2. Charlotte: Chris Paul - They take a local kid to man the point even though Brevin Knight has done a good job distributing the ball. What they really need is a top flight SG, but this draft doesn't really have any. Their frontcourt should be fine with Wallace, Okafor, and Brezec.

3. New Orleans: Nemanja Aleksandrov - Their biggest hole is at the SF position. I'm not enamored with this young kid, but he was once viewed as the potential #1 overall pick. Mostly his effort and character comes into question. If that gets straightened out I think he could turn out to be a smaller and quicker yet less physical version of Nowitzki.

4. Portland: Andriuskevicius - I foresee Portland taking a bit of a nose dive with the firing of Mo Cheeks, the injury bug hitting the team, younger players getting more time etc. The big problem is the team has too many bums Stoudamire, Van Exel, Miles, Patterson, Randolph I'm sure I forgot some. Until they decide to totally clean house of all these problem guys they will be mired in mediocrity at best. Since there is no great SG available they go for the best center left. The fact the kid has learned from former Blazer Sabonis doesn't hurt his cause either.

5. Utah: Felton - The Jazz need a playmaking PG desperately. I think Felton fits that description to a tee. No further explanation needed.

6. Golden State: Tiago Splitter - I think Golden State will play much better the rest of the season if Baron Davis stays healthy. They should take the best available big man, and I think down the road a combo of Splitter and Biedrins and Troy Murphy could be pretty good.

7. Milwaukee: Fran Vazquez - The Bucks need some more bangers with some size down low. I hear Vazquez is the most ready NBA player of all the Euros. However, if TJ Ford's career is over this could and possibly should be a PG.

8. Toronto: Gerald Green - Supposedly he will be really good. And Toronto could use some young talent on the wings. However, it may be awhile before we see how good Green is and by that time he may show just how similar he is to McGrady and bolt the Raptors to become a selfish scorer elsewhere.

9. New York: Rashad McCants - No team needs young cheap talent more than the Knicks. Their salary situation is abysmal. I think McCants is the type that could handle the pressure of playing in NY. However if the Knicks could swing something to move up to get Bogut they should do it given their lack of a quality center since the days of Patrick Ewing. But McCants could help out with the scoring on the wings for now.

10. LA Clippers: Joey Graham - The Clippers should have a better record than they have. I can't figure out why they havn't done better the last few years. They need a young backup on the wing who is used to winning that may help the losing mentality around.

11. New Jersey: Chris Taft - If you hadn't noticed him slipping you do now. I am completely unimpressed with Taft. I'm not saying he isn't talented, he is very talented. However, I don't see the effort, desire, or consistency. I would stay clear of him more than any other lottery pick in the draft because of all the negatives he has. But NJ does need a bruiser down low, and if this kid gets his crap together he could be the steal of the draft.

12. Philly: Hakim Warrick - I think the 76ers need a big man that will bring a spark off the bench behind Webber. No one fits that potential more than Warrick who could run with AI and help finish on the break with his athleticism and hustle.

13. Minnesota: Deron Williams - Cassell is getting old and grumpy which should facilitate this pick. A good passer like Williams may help take some of the load of KG every night of the year.

14. LA Lakers: Johan Petro - I think the Lakers will be overcome by the fast charging Nuggets for the last spot in the West. Kobe dominates the ball so they need someone who doesn't need it a lot to be effective. A big like Petro who could come in and get some rebounds and provide some muscle down low could be a nice fit.

Sorry if I missed any picks that should belong to another team this year.


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## toolBASICS (Mar 7, 2005)

fuzzybearpup said:


> *Disclaimer* This is not how I think the actual draft will go. I said the same thing last year and apparently no one understood. This is simply a projection of how I think the teams will finish recordwise and who they should draft given their team needs and talent available. And a little explanation why. Feel free to post intelligent comments if you read the disclaimer.
> 
> 1. Atlanta: Bogut - Atlanta will have a ton of cap room and tons of positions to fill. They take the big guy from down under to man the middle for years to come and to feed passes to a slashing Josh Smith as well as scoring plenty himself. You don't pass up a center with his potential when you don't have a decent center on your roster.
> 
> ...


Pretty good I guess.


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## Ballyhoo (May 30, 2003)

Toronto gets Philly's pick if it is out of the top 6, so you may want to re-evaluate the #12 pick based on the Raptor's having it. 

Also, no Marvin Williams?

Totally agree on Taft. I pray the Raptors don't take a gamble on him.


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## zagsfan20 (Dec 24, 2004)

Andriuskevicius = the next Skita.....

Theres no way Portland gambles on that guy....


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## Blazer Freak (Jul 11, 2004)

:yes:


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## Priest (Jun 24, 2003)

fuzzybearpup said:


> *Disclaimer* This is not how I think the actual draft will go. I said the same thing last year and apparently no one understood. This is simply a projection of how I think the teams will finish recordwise and who they should draft given their team needs and talent available. And a little explanation why. Feel free to post intelligent comments if you read the disclaimer.
> 
> 1. Atlanta: Bogut - Atlanta will have a ton of cap room and tons of positions to fill. They take the big guy from down under to man the middle for years to come and to feed passes to a slashing Josh Smith as well as scoring plenty himself. You don't pass up a center with his potential when you don't have a decent center on your roster.
> 
> ...


so sad that i havent seen a lot of these players play....this is really a international draft


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Looks good to me.


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## Bron_Melo_ROY (Apr 12, 2004)

Ballyhoo said:


> Toronto gets Philly's pick if it is out of the top 6, so you may want to re-evaluate the #12 pick based on the Raptor's having it.
> 
> Also, no Marvin Williams?
> 
> Totally agree on Taft. I pray the Raptors don't take a gamble on him.


 I hope Marvin Williams doesn't enter the draft. Another year at the collegiate level will help him a lot.


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## fuzzybearpup (May 20, 2004)

I didn't put Marvin Williams in because I have heard he wants to return for another year of college. However, if he does come out he would go third in this scenario to New Orleans. I absolutely love his game. If New Orleans won the lottery and he was in the draft they should take him #1 overall. He could be a young healthy version of a guy they had recently, Jamal Mashburn. 

As far as Toronto owning that Philly pick I'd have them taking Deron Williams since Rafer Alston may be heading out the door after clashing with Sam Mitchell and even if he isn't Deron could play back up PG. Minnesota would then make a reach for the next best available PG, personally I would trade down if I got an offer at that point. That would leave the Lakers pick unchanged since Warrick is too similar to Brian Cook (PF height but not tough enough and too slow to guard SF's, although Warrick is more explosive), but Warrick would probably be picked soon afterward.


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## butr (Mar 23, 2004)

fuzzybearpup said:


> I didn't put Marvin Williams in because I have heard he wants to return for another year of college. However, if he does come out he would go third in this scenario to New Orleans. I absolutely love his game. If New Orleans won the lottery and he was in the draft they should take him #1 overall. He could be a young healthy version of a guy they had recently, Jamal Mashburn.
> 
> As far as Toronto owning that Philly pick I'd have them taking Deron Williams since Rafer Alston may be heading out the door after clashing with Sam Mitchell and even if he isn't Deron could play back up PG. Minnesota would then make a reach for the next best available PG, personally I would trade down if I got an offer at that point. That would leave the Lakers pick unchanged since Warrick is too similar to Brian Cook (PF height but not tough enough and too slow to guard SF's, although Warrick is more explosive), but Warrick would probably be picked soon afterward.



Does Deron match a run and gun style? Seems a bit pudgey, we don't need anymore matador defenders. I think there are better choices. It sounds like the Raps are scouting the HSer hard. I don't know if I like that.

When you look at what the raps need, it's D. Whether interior or perimeter. To me Shelden Williams is an interior answer assuming he comes out. Check out his numbers this year compared to Emeka last year. They are very close. No one is talking Shelden at all. I'm not saying he should go #2, but if he is on the board and the Raps don't take him with the PHI pick, I will go berserk.


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## JuniorNoboa (Jan 27, 2003)

fuzzybearpup said:


> 9. New York: Rashad McCants - No team needs young cheap talent more than the Knicks. Their salary situation is abysmal. * I think McCants is the type that could handle the pressure of playing in NY *. However if the Knicks could swing something to move up to get Bogut they should do it given their lack of a quality center since the days of Patrick Ewing. But McCants could help out with the scoring on the wings for now.
> .


Wow. You couldn't be more wrong.

Good post otherwise.


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## BigMac (Jan 14, 2005)

this is going to be a really weak draft if some of the underclassmen don't come out early. 2006 look like a strong draft if the nba don't put in the age limit.


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## vi3t_boi11 (Aug 14, 2004)

blowuptheraptors said:


> Does Deron match a run and gun style? Seems a bit pudgey, we don't need anymore matador defenders. I think there are better choices. It sounds like the Raps are scouting the HSer hard. I don't know if I like that.
> 
> When you look at what the raps need, it's D. Whether interior or perimeter. To me Shelden Williams is an interior answer assuming he comes out. Check out his numbers this year compared to Emeka last year. They are very close. No one is talking Shelden at all. I'm not saying he should go #2, but if he is on the board and the Raps don't take him with the PHI pick, I will go berserk.


Yea I think that Philly will barely miss the playoff, so that pick will prob be late lottery, I like the idea of drafting shelden williams he gives us tough interior defense rebounding, shotblocking n he can score in the paint, he's an Antonio Davis type player, he's someone who can come in and contribute rite away


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## RoseCity (Sep 27, 2002)

Very good work... Thanks for posting.. Here is my hoping Portland lands #1 to grab Bogut. :banana:


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## azirishmusic (Feb 25, 2004)

I don't think the big Euros will go that early. After a big run on them, the Euro teenagers have not been too impressive over the last few years so I expect a backlash. By contrast, I think HS athletes will get more attention after the relative success of the ones that came out this year.

BTW, I think the NCAA's will create a lot of movement in draft positioning. I'd pay a lot of attention to the U. Conn guys because they have some really tall athletes that could a big impression.


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## SkywalkerAC (Sep 20, 2002)

I don't think Martynas and Nemanja will come out (at least not both of them) while Marvin Williams should.


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## fuzzybearpup (May 20, 2004)

Nemanja already has entered this draft. He did it a while ago for fear that an age restriction would be put in place for this draft and tried to beat the announcement. For the other two its just speculation for now.


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## ChitwoodStyle (Oct 9, 2003)

I see one major change and that is the inclusion of Rudy Fernandez. I think that when Rudy comes back and begins to play at the high level he was before he got hurt, that he will rise very high and go in the top 5.

In response to the young Euro craze, Thiago is an exception to the rule in my opinion, he is putting up decent numbers for his minutes in the world's 2nd best league.


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## NYKBaller (Oct 29, 2003)

knicks need a center and they draft McCant. Are you serious? that along loses all creditability...


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

I bet GS gets the 1st pick and Bogut. Stern won't let that big fan base go unsatisfied for much longer now that they have legitimate talent elsewhere.


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## butr (Mar 23, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> I bet GS gets the 1st pick and Bogut. Stern won't let that big fan base go unsatisfied for much longer now that they have legitimate talent elsewhere.


Conspiracy theorist. :biggrin:


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## fuzzybearpup (May 20, 2004)

Two things. Yes I know the Knicks need a center, especially since their roster is basically made up of overpaid undersized power forwards. But I just don't think there is a center worthy of a selection where they pick. Unless you consider Petro a top 9 pick. As for a conspiracy theory, I don't neccessarily think there is one. But I can't rule it out since they refuse to televise the actual pulling of the ping pong balls.


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## MentalPowerHouse (Oct 9, 2003)

So what if the Knicks need a center? Other than Bogut there is no one in this draft that will be able to contribute at center next year, or probably even the year after. The Knicks don't seem the like a team that will wait out projects. They are much more likely to try to acquire another center via trade or free agency.


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## Matiz (Jun 5, 2003)

Knicks need a whole lot more than just a center imo...


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## ballstorm (Nov 30, 2003)

Petro disappeared from the mockdraft on nbadraft.net .. Why?


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## MPK (Oct 20, 2002)

Maybe Stern will rig the lottery like he should have during the 2003 draft to send LeBron to NYC...


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## ChitwoodStyle (Oct 9, 2003)

Maybe Stern is waiting for someone else to come along.
Maybe he secretly cloned Wilt years ago and is waiting for the clone to grow so that the Knicks can get him.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> I bet GS gets the 1st pick and Bogut. Stern won't let that big fan base go unsatisfied for much longer now that they have legitimate talent elsewhere.


If the Los Angeles Kobes miss the playoffs they're a lock to win the lottery.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

MentalPowerHouse said:


> So what if the Knicks need a center? Other than Bogut there is no one in this draft that will be able to contribute at center next year, or probably even the year after. The Knicks don't seem the like a team that will wait out projects. They are much more likely to try to acquire another center via trade or free agency.


But, dude, McCants? I don't think much of iThom, but even he isn't stupid enough to waste a top ten selection on McCants.


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## djtoneblaze (Nov 22, 2004)

I don't understand why the Knicks would even look at someone like McCants. They already Crawford and Marbury, two young guards, plus Houston if he makes some sort of Grant Hill recovery. They would really be letting McCants rot on the bench. 

Now, if Rudy Gay or Marvin Williams were to be in the draft, and (though they wouldn't) fall that low, I'd recommend one of these two for the Knicks.


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## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

I think the Blazers will take Green, then try to trade up into the top 8 and grab Bogut, Martynas or Tiago.


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