# oden expectations? (merged)



## upstate blazer (May 24, 2006)

*Expectations of Oden*

Forgive this post if this has already been discussed ad nuseum in past threads but lately I've been getting he impression that many don't have much hope for GO this year. Down the road eeveryone seems to agree that he's a superstar in the making. Based on the Hollinger article it seems like there are national pundits who are also not too impressed with Oden. I for one think there were two considerable additions and one subtraction this summer--the two additions beinig LMA added as a full time starter and Oden becoming our new center, the subtraction of course being Zach. The funny thing I noticed with those who don't believe see improvment this year is that the Oden addition does not seem to even get a mention, like it's a forgone conclusion that he will be irrelevent this year. With that I figured I'd share my hopes and expectations of Oden, and give my opinion about the state of the team (regardless whether a trade goes through or not).


Greg Oden

My first impression of GO after watching a few Ohio State games was just what a physical presence he is. On defense he reminded me of Olajuwon, and on offense, while very limited, desplayed a power and athleticism that I haven't seen since Shaq. He has the ability to just power up and throw it down on anyone around the basket, when's the last time the blazers had someone like that and how many centers out there can do that? The thing is when Shaq first came into the league I wasn't really too impressed, I didn't believe that someone with no real skill set besides powering into defenders and dunking could be successful. What did Shaq average that year, something like 20 pts a game. . .what kind of skill set did he have as a rookie? was he more physically impressive than GO is at this point? In my opinion these guys have very similar games at this stage with somewhat similar body types. I'd give the nod to GO for more developed skill set (better touch on his shot, developed left hand, footwork I'd say are about equal), and better athelticism, and the nod to Shaq for strength and power. But again, I don't believe the differences are great. The situations are a bit different, I don't think GO will be the go to guy down low this year with LMA and BRoy getting the majority of shots, but I'm expecting 12 or 13 pts a game including two to three massive dunks like the ones we saw in the 2nd summer league game. I think he may initially struggle the first month or two, but throughout the season he will do more than just show flashes, he will be relevent this year. Rookies have shown that you can be successful in this league by attacking the rim with power and atheleticism, illustrated by not just Shaq, but Amare Stoudemire.


Team Outlook

while the naysayers are so quick to point out the 23 and 10 we lost with Zach there are some things that get overlooked. In particular I have always had a hard time calling Zach a great rebounder, despite what the stats would show. He never really controlled the glass in the way that say a Duncan, B wallace, or even Sabonis would. I always thought that Sabonis was an unsung hero on the defensive end because of the way he could limit opponents shots. How dominant were the blazers on the glass with Zach as our main guy? In fact I hesitate to call him an inside presence at all. . .a talented scorer yes, a stat stuffer for sure, but at the end of games I never felt with Zach that we were dominating the paint. I think that changes this year. By all accounts LMA looks ready to step in this year. In fact he looked ready last year when he did step in for Zach, and the team actually looked better with him at PF (a point blazer optimists remember for sure). In addition, we add a beast in the middle that few centers can match physically, and I'm not sure how this team doesn't improve. 

Your opinions. . .


----------



## Samuel (Jan 1, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I'm less concerned with PPG, RPG and BPG with Oden this year.

I just hope he can stay out of foul trouble long enough to log a decent amount of minutes.


----------



## ASDQWE (May 31, 2007)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I'd expect a lot out of him, since really, I haven't seen a center like this in a long time. 



> desplayed a power and athleticism that I haven't seen since Shaq.


This is why I expect a lot out of him.


----------



## Bob Whitsitt (Jul 12, 2007)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

His expectations are going to be too high for himself and too high from us. I hope he doesn't have a mental breakdown cause of it.


----------



## hasoos (Jan 3, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I expect early in the year he will get in foul trouble quite a bit, but should be better adjusted to game speed by the time he gets a training camp under his belt. 

Stat wise: I think Oden will be in the teens in scoring, teens in rebounding, and about 3 blocks a game. Field goal percentage over .500 

He will be better by the end of the year then in the beginning, and hopefully will not hit the rookie wall.


----------



## Reep (Jun 4, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I think Oden will be about 10 pts, 8-9 boards, and about 3 blocks a game. He will foul out several times early, but will get better as the season goes along. Next year all numbers will go up (except fouls).


----------



## mook (Dec 31, 2002)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I think you've got a good point. I think expectations among casual fans and the media are going to be extremely high, but among the regulars of this board I sometimes get the sense that we're underestimating his impact. 

I don't expect him to immediately come out and put up Shaq's points in his first season. Shaq, after all, had more college experience. but I do expect him to at least meet or exceed what Emeka Okafor did in his first year: 15 points, 11 rebounds, 1.7 blocks on 45% shooting. Oden is taller, more athletic and just more talented. Hopefully he doesn't have Okafor's injury issues, though.


----------



## TLo (Dec 27, 2006)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I'm looking for per game averages of 15 pts, 7 rebs, and 2 blks. If he stays out of foul trouble he will surpass this.


----------



## ASDQWE (May 31, 2007)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I actually expect number close to his college stats.  The Eddy Curry's, Mark Blount's, Nenad Krstic's, Chris Webber's and the Memeht Okur's will not be able to stop him.


----------



## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

My expectations of are these.

Work your butt off trying to get better
Stay out of trouble

As a team they are these

Play better as the year goes on
stay out of trouble


----------



## GOD (Jun 22, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

i expect a lot of scoring and rebounding, but not much in the way of shot blocking. I think he has the ability to blk many shots but will limit his blocking attempts to try and keep his fouling down. As the years move on he will become better at understanding when to block and when to just defend.


----------



## Bob Whitsitt (Jul 12, 2007)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



mook said:


> I think you've got a good point. I think expectations among casual fans and the media are going to be extremely high, but among the regulars of this board I sometimes get the sense that we're underestimating his impact.
> 
> I don't expect him to immediately come out and put up Shaq's points in his first season. Shaq, after all, had more college experience. but I do expect him to at least meet or exceed what Emeka Okafor did in his first year: 15 points, 11 rebounds, 1.7 blocks on 45% shooting. Oden is taller, more athletic and just more talented. Hopefully he doesn't have Okafor's injury issues, though.


I think even those are lofty goals. I'm trying to at least voice the fact to people that he's a rookie who's going to have more trouble than a lot of players getting used to the NBA simply due to his youth and to his position. He's a big big man and isn't used to playing against guys his size. I think he will get in a LOT of foul trouble and I think the general (moron casual) fans and media will be quite disappointed because they expect him to be an all-star.

If he can stay out of foul trouble I see him having no problem with the NBA game. I just have this feeling that he's going to be in a lot of foul trouble (this statement has nothing to do with summer league, I'm aware how skewed summer league referees are and whatnot. I'm basing this on his youth and watching him play. I think the big guys will give him lots of trouble, not to mention suicidal lane drivers like Parker, Iverson and Wade).


----------



## Jermaniac Fan (Jul 27, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



Samuel said:


> I'm less concerned with PPG, RPG and BPG with Oden this year.
> 
> I just hope he can stay out of foul trouble long enough to log a decent amount of minutes.


That's exactly what i was saying..


----------



## I Own 2 Microwaves (May 30, 2007)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I hope he stays on the floor


----------



## sa1177 (Feb 18, 2005)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

14pts, 9rbds, 2.8blks, 54% FG

I don't think the foul issue will be as big as some of you...summer league refs are notoriously whistle happy. Oden may struggle early with fouls as he adjust to the speed and strength of NBA posts etc but in time he'll be fine IMO.


----------



## Five5even (Jun 15, 2007)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I expect he will undergo a pretty large amount of pressure. He's only 19, so there is obviously a learning curve for him. I expect him to get better and better for 3-5 years before he is remotely close to peaking.


----------



## Samuel (Jan 1, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



sa1177 said:


> I don't think the foul issue will be as big as some of you...summer league refs are notoriously whistle happy. Oden may struggle early with fouls as he adjust to the speed and strength of NBA posts etc but in time he'll be fine IMO.


I think he struggled with it a decent amount last year in college. Plus, rookies in the NBA just tend to pick up fouls, whether it's getting 'rook'd' or simply having trouble adjusting.

I think once Oden is fully healthy and in shape, he won't struggle with it as much. But at the beginning of the season I'd expect him to be in foul trouble a considerable amount of time.


----------



## mgb (Jun 26, 2004)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

40 points, 20 rebounds, 15 blocks, 10 assists, and 10 steals. Since it's his first year I'm not expecting much.


----------



## Zybot (Jul 22, 2004)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I would hope for 12-13 ppg, 7 rpg, 4 dimes and 2-3 assists :biggrin:


----------



## Entity (Feb 21, 2005)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



mgb said:


> 40 points, 20 rebounds, 15 blocks, 10 assists, and 10 steals. Since it's his first year I'm not expecting much.


Come on, that's a little unfair. Only one guy has even averaged a triple double. So that's where I'm setting the bar, 40 points, 20 rebounds, 10 blocks. :biggrin:


----------



## It's_GO_Time (Oct 13, 2005)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

To play out his rookie contract and then sign with the Lakers, an organization that has a history of great centers. :cheers:


----------



## mgb (Jun 26, 2004)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



Kiss_My_Darius said:


> To play out his rookie contract and then sign with the Lakers, an organization that has a history of great centers. :cheers:


Funny, I read a comment on his blog saying he wasn't buying a house he was only going to rent and the first thing I thought was that he's only planning on being here his rookie contract.


----------



## It's_GO_Time (Oct 13, 2005)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



mgb said:


> Funny, I read a comment on his blog saying he wasn't buying a house he was only going to rent and the first thing I thought was that he's only planning on being here his rookie contract.



Wow, when I posted that I almost stop myself becasue I thought it might draw too much negative reaction. Instead it gets one response and it sounds like you found it a little amusing. Cool.

Back in the Shaq era, it wasn't uncommon for a rookie to play out the contract and then pick their next city/team. But these days, Stern has done a good job creating a system that makes it favorable to stay with the team that drafted you. 

And the way I look at it, if a city like Cleavland (insert Clevland joke here) can keep Lebron James, then Portland shouldn't have a problem keeping Oden.


----------



## gatorpops (Dec 17, 2004)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

I expect that he will have 5 turnovers per game at least early because they will double him and he will have to learn how to pass out quickly. 

gatorpops


----------



## HOWIE (Dec 30, 2002)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



Reep said:


> I think Oden will be about 10 pts, 8-9 boards, and about 3 blocks a game. He will foul out several times early, but will get better as the season goes along. Next year all numbers will go up (except fouls).


I totally agree with this statement. I don't see Oden being a wild man on the court his first year. He needs to learn the NBA game and once he does that his game will improve by leaps and bounds. I think that he might even set the record for most games fouled out of by a Blazer.......someone should look that up and we can watch that this season. Maybe have a over / under on the wager part of the boards.


----------



## KingSpeed (Oct 30, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



Zybot said:


> I would hope for 12-13 ppg, 7 rpg, 4 dimes and 2-3 assists :biggrin:


A "dime" is an assist. What did you mean?

As for me, I want nothing less than 14, 11, and 2 (blocks).


----------



## King Sancho Fantastic (Jul 19, 2005)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



Kiss_My_Darius said:


> To play out his rookie contract and then sign with the Lakers, an organization that has a history of great centers. :cheers:


I concur.:clap:


----------



## ProZach (Oct 13, 2005)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



NathanLane said:


> A "dime" is an assist. What did you mean?



He's referring to the comment 90 seconds into this -

<object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_yTjebH2fLU"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_yTjebH2fLU" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>


----------



## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*

As rookies:

D Howard 12/10, 1.7 blks, 52% fg

Amare 13.5/8.8, 1.1 blk, 47% FG

If Oden puts up comparable numbers, I will be perfectly content. No matter how much talent he has, he is only 19! People are going to need to cut him some slack and give him a chance to grow up. 

Not to be a downer, but remember this: Bill Walton came into the league after 4 years of college. His rookie year, he was surrounded by 2 former ROYs (Petrie, Wicks), a ROY runner-up (Neal), and 2 former all-stars (Lenny Wilkens and John Johnson). The team won 38 games.

Next season, Wilkens retired as a player, but the team added Hollins, Gross, and Snapper Jones. They won 37 games.

Injuries were an issue for Walton, but it wasn't the only problem. Teams need time to gell.


----------



## tradetheo (Feb 24, 2005)

for me, I would say 12-14 ppg, 8-10 boards and hopefully 3 blocks a game. what does everybody else have in mind? also, what do you think durant will average? for both, its different, oden overall points, and durant fg percentage.


----------



## Mral (Jul 5, 2007)

*Re: oden expectations?*

10 and 8


----------



## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

*Re: oden expectations?*

I would say 12/9/2block sounds about right for Oden. Durant will average 20 points and 5-6 boards.


----------



## Tortimer (Jun 4, 2007)

*Re: oden expectations?*

14 PPG 10 RPG 2.5 BPG. It will be a gradual increase in all categories all year.


----------



## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

*Re: oden expectations?*

I want him to get 10 rebounds.


----------



## PorterIn2004 (Jan 1, 2003)

*Re: oden expectations?*

It depends almost entirely about how much time he gets on the court, which (beyond issues of health and the like) is mostly about both on how quickly he adjusts to the game (moving his feet, etc.) and how things wash out between leaning toward the "rookie" calls and the protection a star can receive. _If_ the last two more or less off-set each other _and_ he's not forcing them to make a bunch of legitimate calls (as happened in preseason), I imagine something like 14 and 10 with something near 2.5 for both assists and blocks (not to mention a boat load of altered shots).


----------



## Dessakill (Jun 24, 2007)

I saw AT LEAST 15 occurances throughout the summer league where refs called fouls on the wrong player and didnt even take the time to correct it, I hope noone even keeps the summer league in mind when they're evaluating talent. Greg is not as raw as a lot of "experts" have touted him, so I'm hoping for 14 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 bpg 53% shooting at the least has spurts of good touch from the free throw line.

What me and my friend discussed, he should [at the least] be Ben Wallace coming into the league with poorer man to man defense.

His offensive potential and strength alone, make me 110% satisfied with the selection until the day I die.


----------



## Utherhimo (Feb 20, 2005)

a celtics fan friend of mine said oden reminds him of walton mixed with shaq i will take that any day!


----------



## mook (Dec 31, 2002)

*Re: Expectations of Oden*



Bob Whitsitt said:


> I think even those are lofty goals. I'm trying to at least voice the fact to people that he's a rookie who's going to have more trouble than a lot of players getting used to the NBA simply due to his youth and to his position. He's a big big man and isn't used to playing against guys his size. I think he will get in a LOT of foul trouble and I think the general (moron casual) fans and media will be quite disappointed because they expect him to be an all-star.
> 
> If he can stay out of foul trouble I see him having no problem with the NBA game. I just have this feeling that he's going to be in a lot of foul trouble (this statement has nothing to do with summer league, I'm aware how skewed summer league referees are and whatnot. I'm basing this on his youth and watching him play. I think the big guys will give him lots of trouble, not to mention suicidal lane drivers like Parker, Iverson and Wade).


I really don't see a lot of reasons to believe he'll do worse than Okafor in his first year. in his last year of college, Emeka averaged 17 points, 11 rebounds and 4 blocks. Oden averaged 16 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks at Ohio, while using only one hand for much of the season. 

Oden has got more of an NBA center body than Okafor. he's faster, stronger, taller and has a more complete set of offensive skills in the post than Okafor. he wasn't as good a shot blocker, I'll admit, but nobody ever talked about the "Okafor draft." 

the only real argument people can make that Oden couldn't mirror Okafor's stats is that Okafor played more years of college ball and so was more seasoned. but after three years of college his stats weren't that much better than Oden's one year, and Oden played it with a broken hand. 

15 points, 11 rebounds, 1.7 blocks on 45% shooting seems quite possible for Oden to me.


----------



## Zybot (Jul 22, 2004)

Utherhimo said:


> a celtics fan friend of mine said oden reminds him of walton mixed with shaq i will take that any day!


Hopefully your friend doesn't think Oden will be a fat hippie. :biggrin: Do you think that Oden will eclipse Walton as the best C ever on the Blazers? Man that would be huge! I think Oden could be a very good commentator too. After seeing some of the footage from the pre-training camp runs I have to eat some crow-burgers. :chee: I just wasn't that impressed with Oden in Summer League, but it looks like there will be very little doubt that he should start opening day. I love that he is coming in early to work with Aldridge, Roy and Co. This gives me some real confidence that he will be ready on opening day. I still wouldn't rule out Nate starting Joel, just because he seems to favor vets, but if I could I would like to change my vote to Oden starting -- with apologies to MM. I can't wait for the preseason to start so that we can see Oden at 100% in action with real officiating.


----------



## Rip City Reign (Jul 1, 2007)

13 ppg, 11 rpg 2.8 bpg.

Early on, teams will throw all kinds of schemes at GO and force him to make decisions quickly. That's where these pre-season scrimmages will show their value: as Oden and Aldridge learn to play off of each other, they will make the opponent pay for the double teams.

The scoring threat of Aldridge will help GO immensely this season.


----------



## dudleysghost (Mar 24, 2006)

14 ppg, 55% FG, 9.5 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 1.2 apg, 2.3 TOg

That's pretty good, but it's not realistic to expect him to be Shaq-good in his first year. Shaq was just more dominant as a college player and more experienced as a rookie. It also doesn't take summer league to foresee that Oden will suffer from foul trouble early as a pro, because he had serious foul trouble in the NCAA tourney. I'm guessing he will start out pretty slow and end the year on a high, like LMA did last year, and end with the above numbers. Someone should resurrect this thread after next season.


----------



## Dessakill (Jun 24, 2007)

Shaqs big ol *** didn't even need talent, just give him the ball, and a good 2 seconds or so, either the defender will get out of the way, or Shaquilles buttcheeks would escort him out of the way involuntarily.

Don't get me wrong, Gregs strong and capable of filling out that body, but Shaqs overall strength and body mass is flat out unmatchable and GO52 will have to really incorporate his athleticism because I don't want him thinking he's gonna just outmuscle everyone, at this level he's gonna need to work on all his post moves and just outsmart defenders who will be just as big/fast/strong as Greg.


----------

