# Wizards pre-lottery thread



## BCH

Who do you want? Where do you think we will pick? Anything lottery related before the actual Lottery.


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## MJG

I'm just announcing (as I have a few times before) that people should not get their hopes up about getting a top pick. It certainly can happen, but we are by no means any sort of lock. I know next to nothing about the draft and generally don't start learning about it until I know where my team is drafting -- it will be up to the more college-savvy posters to take care of this thread.


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## BCH

Right now we have the 3rd worst record by 2 games, and we hold the second tiebreaker, with the worst division record, and are only better than the Bulls for the first tiebreaker, head to head. We have given up career highs in points to 3 different players that play for two teams in the bottom 4 in the league. 

However, because this is the Wizards, I will agree with you that we are looking at a pick between 7 and 11 though it is still fun to hope the Bulls finish strong and end up with the better record.


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## twinz2gether

We truly need the first pick since this draft is so weak.


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## CP26

I don't know if its me, but I really like Rashad McCants from UNC. He can play the 2 and the 3. He is almost automatic from 12-17 feet and is deadly from beyond the 3 point line. We could trade Stackhouse and have Hayes and McCants at the 3. Or we could start Hughes at the 2 and let McCants play there if either Hayes or Hughes gets hurt. Do NBA teams trade down if the guy they like is tooken, like in the NFL?


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## Jaybird

> Originally posted by <b>Air McNair 09</b>!
> I don't know if its me, but I really like Rashad McCants from UNC. He can play the 2 and the 3. He is almost automatic from 12-17 feet and is deadly from beyond the 3 point line. We could trade Stackhouse and have Hayes and McCants at the 3. Or we could start Hughes at the 2 and let McCants play there if either Hayes or Hughes gets hurt. Do NBA teams trade down if the guy they like is tooken, like in the NFL?


I don't think we need another undersized player without a definative position. McCants is only 6'4" I don't see how he could possibly play the SF.


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## Shanghai Kid

Package the pick with Stackhouse/L8 for Shawn Marion.


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## MJG

> Originally posted by <b>Air McNair 09</b>!
> I don't know if its me, but I really like Rashad McCants from UNC. He can play the 2 and the 3. He is almost automatic from 12-17 feet and is deadly from beyond the 3 point line. We could trade Stackhouse and have Hayes and McCants at the 3. Or we could start Hughes at the 2 and let McCants play there if either Hayes or Hughes gets hurt. Do NBA teams trade down if the guy they like is tooken, like in the NFL?


There's always a lot of talk of teams trading down, but it doesn't happen that often. I've heard rumors about a couple of teams (Phoenix? Boston?) looking to package a couple of mid-level first rounders to move up in the draft, but that's about it.



> Originally posted by <b>Shanghai Kid</b>!
> Package the pick with Stackhouse/L8 for Shawn Marion.


Phoenix already has Joe Johnson at SG, who's become probably at least as good as Stackhouse. They also are looking to dump salary for this offseason, which getting Laettner would not help. They are also giving up the best player in the deal. I can't imagine the Suns considering this.

Some pretty random thoughts about our draft: 

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that we get the second pick in the draft, with Atlanta getting the number one. However, that's more of a "what the heck" pick; the pick that we'll actually end up getting will probably be the fifth overall.

I'm not sure exactly what I want from this draft. The only think I think we absolutely have no use for is a PG. Arenas looks to be our superstar for as long as we have him, and I think Blake will be a fine backup. There's some question marks pretty much everywhere else though. We have some main cogs of our team that will be FAs after next season: Hughes, Haywood (R), and Kwame (R). We're going to have to have a general idea of who will be with the team long term and who won't going into this draft.

Assuming Hughes can stay injury-free, he's going to command at least a little bit more than the 3 year MLE deal we got him for. Will the team want to give him that when we already have two backcourt guys locked up for awhile (Stackhouse, Arenas)? If not, then we might want to look at a SF for when Stackhouse moves back to SG. Sure, we have JJ and Hayes already, but I'd rather take a defensive minded sure-thing SF than a big man just because he's big.

Of course, the thing we'd probably like most is a legit big man. Someone who knows how to play tough and hard, with good defense to play alongside Kwame. The question is, who is there that does that besides Okafor? I'm not saying there isn't anyone -- I honestly don't know who else there is in the draft that we could pick high that does that.

A big question that I have no clue what the answer is is whether or not the team would be willing to draft another HS (or equivalent) player. Most of the players that are viewed as lottery picks right now are very, very young. Just looking at NBADraft.net's top ten, three are from HS and two are foreign players who are teenagers. For most teams this wouldn't matter much, but considering the generally negative feel that Kwame has had in his time here, I think the team would be reluctant to take another young gun. Plus, as everyone probably knows, we're in an incredibly weak division next year. The best team in it is Miami -- we could very well have a real shot of winning it with the right kind of offseason. A young kid would do nothing to further that cause.


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## Shanghai Kid

^I think we might suck in our division next year.

Orlando, Miami, and Atlanta all seem to own us this year. We're 1-8 against our future division rivals.


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## MJG

> Originally posted by <b>Shanghai Kid</b>!
> ^I think we might suck in our division next year.
> 
> Orlando, Miami, and Atlanta all seem to own us this year. We're 1-8 against our future division rivals.


That may be so, but but that'll only come into play if there's a tie at the end of the season. We coule be 0-16 in our division next year, but if we finish 1 game ahead of the next best team, we win it. The odds of that happening are pretty low, but still. Unless there are major changes in these teams over the course of the summer, it might only take 35-37 wins to win the division. That's definitely a major jump from were we are at now, but it's not impossible.


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## ATLien

McCants!? :laugh: After watching last nights game, you'll do not need another pure scorer who refuses to play defense. He WILL make a good pro, but Washington needs to get some defense guys in there.

I like Iguodola alot even though he does play SF, Jarvis Hayes position. You draft talent, then fit them in their position. He is my pick.


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## twinz2gether

I think we should have haywood be unprotected, and we try as hard as possible to draft emeka.


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## amd pwr

u guys already have kwame, why would u want emaka??? (they play the same position)


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## CP26

> Originally posted by <b>amd pwr</b>!
> u guys already have kwame, why would u want emaka??? (they play the same position)


We could play Emeka Okafor at the 4, and Kwame at the 5.


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## MJG

> Originally posted by <b>amd pwr</b>!
> u guys already have kwame, why would u want emaka??? (they play the same position)


Kwame is listed at 6'11 and 245, though our announcers said that he's grown to be an even 7'0. If Okafor is unable to play center in the pros, Kwame can cover us there just fine. He did earlier in the season, and his play didn't suffer at all on either side of the court.


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## CP26

Okafor is really an undersized center when he comes to the NBA. He is fine in college because not many people on his team are that size.


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## twinz2gether

Look you guys, I think people underate how important grades and player calliber are corellated. HE'S REALLY SMART. and that's what it takes to play great defense. He's ben wallace with some offense, he's the answer for the washington wizards, lol.


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## havoc

I for one am glad the wiz shouldn't have a high pick... I don't want Howard or Okafor. Okafor is never gonna play the 5 in the NBA and the last thing we need is a 4.
A *TRUE* PG would be nice (ie trade hughes and move gilbert) but other than that who can we draft who is better than gil/larry at the 2, jarvis/jerry at the 3, kwame at the 4, brendan/etan at the 5? 
Perhaps it's just my lack of college bball knowledge but a high pick in this draft just isn't appealing to me.


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## afireinside

> Originally posted by <b>havoc</b>!
> I for one am glad the wiz shouldn't have a high pick... I don't want Howard or Okafor. Okafor is never gonna play the 5 in the NBA and the last thing we need is a 4.
> A *TRUE* PG would be nice (ie trade hughes and move gilbert) but other than that who can we draft who is better than gil/larry at the 2, jarvis/jerry at the 3, kwame at the 4, brendan/etan at the 5?
> Perhaps it's just my lack of college bball knowledge but a high pick in this draft just isn't appealing to me.


trade Hughes? why? more like trade Stack and put Hughes at the 3 with Arenas playing SG.


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## havoc

Hughes at the 3? He is way undersized to play the 3. At this point I think Hughes has more value than Stack for a trade anyway.


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## twinz2gether

Hughes is a very good defender, i'd way rather have him, maybe we can draft a SF like Josh smith or Luol Deng and trade or don 't protect stackhouse. Or maybe we have enough faith in Jarvis hayes to think he can be a great SF.


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## havoc

Don't get me wrong, I really like Hughes but he is one of our most marketable players right now. 
If we could move Stack I'd be all for it but I don't see any way we could get anything respectable back. I like Deng a lot but with both stack and jarvis on the roster right now there's no room for him.
Are we going to keep Gil at the 1? Resign Etan? Too many questions for us in the offseason - when will the curse of lez boulez ever be lifted??


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## BCH

> Originally posted by <b>Air McNair 09</b>!
> Okafor is really an undersized center when he comes to the NBA. He is fine in college because not many people on his team are that size.


Just like Zo was undersized for the NBA.

I don't care, I think in this draft Okafor is the only player that should be on the Wizards' radar. The need to hope they get a top two pick, with the second pick only if Atlanta gets the first. I can live with a guy like Deng if he declares, but I do not want another project.

I have no problems with packaging our first and either Hughes or Stackhouse for a player. This trade would have to occur after the draft, but could be set up before hand because we still owe Orlando a pick.


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## Shanghai Kid

Right now I don't think we're good enough to be in a posistion to trade any of our good players unless we're getting back guys that can contribute now.

I'm leaning towards trying to make the playoffs before we start trading away 15-20ppg players.


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## ATLien

Washington should just draft a big man. Cant ever have enough depth in the front court, ever.


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## Gripni

How can it be better to have a lower pick (assuming you don't make the playoffs?) You can always take the player you want. If you have a higher pick, you can still take that player. In fact, you have a better chance of getting him because less teams have picked. Use logic.


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## BCH

Looks like Okafor, Howard, and Deng will be the top 3 picks. Lets hope we get a top 3 pick. I am not sold on Howard, but he is better than 4 down apparently. I might accept Josh Smith, and I would definitely accept Josh Smith over Josh Childress.

There just isn't too much to discuss until the Lottery spots are selected. Once that happens we can talk about who the Wizards will take with the 7th pick.


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## MJG

Though I'm sure a couple players will rise up and a couple will drop down over the next two months, at this point the top seven picks haven't changed much in mocks that I've been reading. The top two have been Okafor and Howard all along, and assuming they all come out, the next five look like Deng, Smith, Livingston, Pavel, and Biedrins.

At this time, I have no specific problems with any of the seven. None of them play SG, the only position I have no interest in drafting for. They all have their ups and downs. Some will contribute right away, some will get limited backup minutes. To be honest, I'm a bit stumped. I am trying to think of a good order to put them in, but at this point, I just can't do it. Obviously Okafor would be the first and Howard the second assuming draft experts are right. Deng seems like the choice at third right now. After that, I just can't pick. I guess I just have to wait until the actual lottery goes down, so I can try to see what teams are ahead of us and try to guess based on their needs.


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## hobojoe

Assuming Washington can't get Okafor(their first option), I think they have to go ahead and take a project, because no one else in the draft is really all that capable of coming in and making a huge difference this season at a position where the Wizards need help at. If Okafor can't be taken, I guess Howard is the next option, but what I find most likely to happen is that Washington will end up with one of the 3 prime foreign big men, Pavel Podkolzine, Andris Biedrins and Kosta Perovic.


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## twinz2gether

We have an offense that requies good passers, i think we should go with livingston and i think that's what EJ wants too. we'll dump stackhouse and play livingston arenas and hughes at the 1,2,3 positions, and if we're having problems we can plug in jefferies off the bench to be our special defender for big small forwards.

That way we have 2 combo 1/2's at the 2 and 3 position and then a true point guard at 1 with good height to pass, everyone is saying that this guy is truly ready for the nba. the annoying part is though that we wont have a true small forward starting but i think it'll be okay. Deng or Howard just dont seem like good picks. but if we do get the 1 or 2 picks, try to get okafor.


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## drewson

i will burn my wizard's jersey if we take someone who's name i can't pronounce

pavel podkalakinze
arenanea beedrins

whoever


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## twinz2gether

wow how racist is that?


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## drewson

i said i would burn my jersey

not them


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## Arclite

If you're wanting to get an idea of where you'll likely pick, check this site out:

http://www1.realgm.com/src_lottosim.php 

Things look to be pretty favorable for the Wizards, IMHO.

Myself, I'm pulling for the Wiz to draft Andris Biedrins to form the best defensive frontcourt since the Twin Towers.


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## BCH

> Originally posted by <b>Sovereignz</b>!
> If you're wanting to get an idea of where you'll likely pick, check this site out:
> 
> http://www1.realgm.com/src_lottosim.php
> 
> Things look to be pretty favorable for the Wizards, IMHO.
> 
> Myself, I'm pulling for the Wiz to draft Andris Biedrins to form the best defensive frontcourt since the Twin Towers.


ESPN's is a lot nicer with projected picks. I am not sure if it is insider only though.


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## MJG

Actually, this is my favorite so far: http://www.geocities.com/benschuarmer/draftlotto.html -- Trader Bob posted in on the Blazers board. It's nice because you can do as many simulations at once as you want, and see a tally of the final results. I did a quick 500 just for fun, and this is what we got:

1st - 84
2nd - 78
3rd - 87
5th - 115
6th - 115
7th - 21

Basically, a 50/50 shot between getting a top three pick and a 5-7 pick.


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## MJG

Caught this on Wizards.com. Basically, a quick breakdown of our percentage shot at each possible pick:

1: 15.70%
2: 15.83%
3: 15.67%
5: 22.61%
6: 26.26%
7: 3.92%

So, what does that add up to? The single most likely pick for us is 6th overall, with us slipping all the way to 7th being extremely unlikely. We have a 47.2% shot at a top three pick, and a 52.8% shot at a non-top three pick. Roughly, we have the same shot at getting any of the top three picks.

These stats don't bring much new information to the table, but I figure they are interesting so I'd share.


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## alchemist

Let's trade the pick. I don't want any of these guys (I really like Luke Jackson, but he is NOT worth a lottery pick). I've contended all along we need to keep Gilbert and Hughes at the 1 and 2 and find a solid vet to keep everyone calm when the game gets tight. A defensive pest wouldn't be bad either. If we must draft someone, I guess we should go with a project big man, someone who could be a potential star in the future with Kwame.


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## CP26

> Originally posted by <b>alchemist</b>!
> Let's trade the pick. I don't want any of these guys (I really like Luke Jackson, but he is NOT worth a lottery pick). I've contended all along we need to keep Gilbert and Hughes at the 1 and 2 and find a solid vet to keep everyone calm when the game gets tight. A defensive pest wouldn't be bad either. If we must draft someone, I guess we should go with a project big man, someone who could be a potential star in the future with Kwame.


So you don't want Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor, Dwight Howard, Shaun Livingston?


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## MJG

I'm starting to lean a little bit away from the HS guys in the draft. I think Howard definitley and a few others (Livingston, Smith, etc) probably will be quite good when all is said and done, but I'm really interested in someone that will be able to do something next season. The best of the bunch is Howard, but I've heard "more Kwame than Lebron in terms of readiness" far too often, and I'm not really interested in waiting three years before any contributions happen. Same goes for Livingston, the next highest rated HS guy.

I've seen plenty of people listing our potential lineup for next season assuming we pick one of these guys and they are starting. Now assuming most of us here believe our team will be better next year, do you think that having a rookie-year-Kwame starting will be the recipe for success? Of course this is just from what I've read, as I haven't really seen these guys before, but it just sounds like a gamble to me.

Of course, if the team 100% believes one of these guys will be a superstar in three years, then I wouldn't argue them picking him up. It's just that it'll be tough if other ready-to-contribute rookies are helping their teams win while we're stuck with a 5 PPG, 3 RPG, 10 MPG HS guy on our squad.


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## jazzy1

> Originally posted by <b>MJG</b>!
> I'm starting to lean a little bit away from the HS guys in the draft. I think Howard definitley and a few others (Livingston, Smith, etc) probably will be quite good when all is said and done, but I'm really interested in someone that will be able to do something next season. The best of the bunch is Howard, but I've heard "more Kwame than Lebron in terms of readiness" far too often, and I'm not really interested in waiting three years before any contributions happen. Same goes for Livingston, the next highest rated HS guy.
> 
> I've seen plenty of people listing our potential lineup for next season assuming we pick one of these guys and they are starting. Now assuming most of us here believe our team will be better next year, do you think that having a rookie-year-Kwame starting will be the recipe for success? Of course this is just from what I've read, as I haven't really seen these guys before, but it just sounds like a gamble to me.
> 
> Of course, if the team 100% believes one of these guys will be a superstar in three years, then I wouldn't argue them picking him up. It's just that it'll be tough if other ready-to-contribute rookies are helping their teams win while we're stuck with a 5 PPG, 3 RPG, 10 MPG HS guy on our squad.



This is why I want either Okafor or Deng. I think Okafor brings the obvious shot blocking,presence, defense and much better offense then he's given credit for. 

Deng I think brings winning intangibles. He adds toughness, unselfishness,defense on the perimeter of which we have none. He can score and pass but the toughness and defense is what I think is most important. 

We need a mood change as much as we need a talented player. Not real interested on potential talent I want a player with an edge for winning and being unselfish. 

Howard reminds me of a young Vin Baker or young Cliff Robinson. Not as far as next season's production but as far as potentially and that doesn't appeal to me as much. 

If we're not the 1st pick or pick 3rd behind the Bulls we should trade the pick. The Bulls are gonna snatch Deng before us so we need to get ahead of them at the top.


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