# Some ESPN guy says we'll be the #2 seed



## ATLien

:yep:

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2012/...eed-next-year-says-basketball-prospectus-espn



> 2. Atlanta Hawks: 48.7 | 2.5 worse
> 
> It's funny, our projections systems have never much liked the Hawks over the years and now that they've unloaded their highest-profile player, we've got them getting a better seed than at any point during Atlanta's current string of playoff teams. The Hawks' offense without Joe Johnson will get better, trading in a lot of long jumpers for more trips to the foul line. Still, it's not so much a matter of the Hawks' getting better as it is the rest of the East backsliding.


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## Dre

But I'm a douchebag because I can't stand these "systems"...:stephena:


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## R-Star

Dre said:


> But I'm a douchebag because I can't stand these "systems"...:stephena:


Just shows how right you and I have been...... friend.


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## Diable

I have a really hard time seeing how the Nets don't finish with the 2nd best record in the East. It would seem like that would be a huge failure for that team if they did not. Sure they have some flaws, but after Miami it's hard to see anyone else close to them unless Rose is full strength a lot sooner than you'd think. The rest of the East is going to really weak, but the Hawks don't look any stronger than Boston really. Both of those teams will be weak teams with good records IMO. There are just going to be a lot of wins for them in the East.


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## Dre

The Pacers and Celtics are not going to be "really weak". Rondo is getting better and you could argue Terry is as valuable if not moreso than Ray at this point.


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## E.H. Munro

Diable said:


> I have a really hard time seeing how the Nets don't finish with the 2nd best record in the East. It would seem like that would be a huge failure for that team if they did not. Sure they have some flaws, but after Miami it's hard to see anyone else close to them unless Rose is full strength a lot sooner than you'd think. The rest of the East is going to really weak, but the Hawks don't look any stronger than Boston really. Both of those teams will be weak teams with good records IMO. There are just going to be a lot of wins for them in the East.


Given a normal regular season schedule, the upgrade at the 2 spot, the improved shooting, especially on the bench, and I can't see any way that the 2013 Celtics are worse than the 2012 edition.


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## Diable

I forgot about Philly. They actually might be pretty good, but it's hard to say at this point. Bynum could decide to prove he deserves that money or he could sulk like a great big baby.

Boston was not in reality very good last year and you don't really think they'll be very good this year either, Munro.


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## ATLien

Diable said:


> I have a really hard time seeing how the Nets don't finish with the 2nd best record in the East. It would seem like that would be a huge failure for that team if they did not.


That would be great, wouldn't it?


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## Knick Killer

Diable said:


> I have a really hard time seeing how the Nets don't finish with the 2nd best record in the East. It would seem like that would be a huge failure for that team if they did not. Sure they have some flaws, but after Miami it's hard to see anyone else close to them unless Rose is full strength a lot sooner than you'd think. The rest of the East is going to really weak, but the Hawks don't look any stronger than Boston really. Both of those teams will be weak teams with good records IMO. There are just going to be a lot of wins for them in the East.


Disagree with everything you said. For one, I don't see the Nets as the #2 seed or even #3 that matter and to say the rest of the East is really weak is a ridiculous statement. I wouldn't consider Boston, Indiana or even Philadelphia "really weak".


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## Dre

Even the Knicks might not be slouches with everyone back and added pieces. I actually expect Amare to show up hungry and have a 1st half similar to two years ago


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## E.H. Munro

Diable said:


> I forgot about Philly. They actually might be pretty good, but it's hard to say at this point. Bynum could decide to prove he deserves that money or he could sulk like a great big baby.
> 
> Boston was not in reality very good last year and you don't really think they'll be very good this year either, Munro.


That was before Garnett moved to center, which rejuvenated him. And they've upgraded their backcourt this offseason. Last year their three guards were Rondo, a guy that couldn't play defense and a guy that couldn't play offense. Now they have a defensive roleplayer that buries threes at the SG spot and a combo guard with a penchant for hitting big shots. And Bradley now moves into a smaller defensive stopper role. If they get anything at all out of Green & Wilcox they're going to be better.


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## R-Star

Why does anyone get upset with Diables basketball opinion?

He's the epitome of a monkey spinning a wheel for answers. 


Indiana all the sudden isn't a good team? Because Diable doesn't watch the East?


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## R-Star

E.H. Munro said:


> That was before Garnett moved to center, which rejuvenated him. And they've upgraded their backcourt this offseason. Last year their three guards were Rondo, a guy that couldn't play defense and a guy that couldn't play offense. Now they have a defensive roleplayer that buries threes at the SG spot and a combo guard with a penchant for hitting big shots. And Bradley now moves into a smaller defensive stopper role. If they get anything at all out of Green & Wilcox they're going to be better.


$50 bet on who gets the better regular season record between us EH?


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## Diable

I forgot about the Pacers. I guess we need more obnoxious pacers fans to bring them into every conversation and make all of their fanbase look like jerks.


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## Knick Killer

Diable said:


> I forgot about the Pacers. I guess we need more obnoxious pacers fans to bring them into every conversation and make all of their fanbase look like *jerks*.


We are damn proud of being jerks.


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## E.H. Munro

R-Star said:


> $50 bet on who gets the better regular season record between us EH?


As of today my EC picks (by record) are as follows:


Miami
Indiana (Hibbert keeps getting better and West will be a year removed from surgery and on a normal schedule)
Boston
New Joysey
Philly
Chicago (unless Rose's recovery is nigh on miraculous)
New York
Atnalta

So unless you're betting on Boston I don't see the point. Indiana's as close to a mortal lock to win the central as you can get. I also think Cleveland's a dark horse if they make a move in season because I expect the firesale to continue in Atnalta. Philly's also something of a wildcard because suddenly they have Evan Turner and an extremely reasonably priced Spencer Hawes to use to trade for that wing scorer they need to be a contender.


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## Floods

1. Heat
2. Pacers
3. Sixers
4. Celtics
5. Bulls
6. Nets
7. Bucks
8. Knicks


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## JonMatrix

1.Heat
2.Nets
3.Pacers
4.Sixers-if they trade for a wing scorer or Turner has breakout year, if not, they drop to 6
5.Celtics
6.Knicks
7.Bulls
8.Almost anybody

-The Nets have some firepower, Deron should have an MVP type year.
-The Bulls are gonna have an insanely difficult time scoring points this season without Rose. I'd argue that if they miss any of Deng/Noah/Gibson for more than a couple weeks, they fall back to the mess involving the 8 seed.
-A bad start in Milwaukee probably means Skiles is the first coach fired this year. But if everybody is healthy, Jennings and Ellis are dynamic enough to keep them in the playoff picture.
-The Hawks might still have enough with Teague, Smith, and Horford to make a playoff push. If they have injuries or Smith indicates he's leaving, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a fire sale.
-The Cavs started off well last year before everybody got hurt. Irving seems to have the clutch gene.
-The Wizards definitely upgraded, but if Beal isn't ready or if he gets hurt..then their best shooter is Trevor Ariza.
-Would Philly make a move to rent James Harden and roll the dice on convincing him to stay? Turner and Hawes for Harden, maybe cash considerations or a scrub to make the money match up. If Harden is as good as people think he is, Philly would be significantly improved. Or if him and Bynum both leave next summer, then Philly would be bad enough to tank for the 2014 draft, which is supposed to be a really good one.


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## R-Star

Diable said:


> I forgot about the Pacers. I guess we need more obnoxious pacers fans to bring them into every conversation and make all of their fanbase look like jerks.


The fact you just forgot about a team who if I remember finished 5th in the league last year says something.


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## R-Star

E.H. Munro said:


> As of today my EC picks (by record) are as follows:
> 
> 
> Miami
> Indiana (Hibbert keeps getting better and West will be a year removed from surgery and on a normal schedule)
> Boston
> New Joysey
> Philly
> Chicago (unless Rose's recovery is nigh on miraculous)
> New York
> Atnalta
> 
> So unless you're betting on Boston I don't see the point. Indiana's as close to a mortal lock to win the central as you can get. I also think Cleveland's a dark horse if they make a move in season because I expect the firesale to continue in Atnalta. Philly's also something of a wildcard because suddenly they have Evan Turner and an extremely reasonably priced Spencer Hawes to use to trade for that wing scorer they need to be a contender.


Fair enough, pretty much the same list I had. With Philly possibly moving up a spot or two, but we'll have to wait and see how everyone plays together.


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## e-monk

just looking at the roster as constituted: who is going to start at SF for the Hawks? and why are they stock piling small point guards?


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## RollWithEm

I would be very surprised if the Hawks made the playoffs. I don't know what gives that guy the impression the rest of the East is backsliding. The Nets, Heat, Celtics, Wizards, Raptors, and 76ers obviously got better. The Pacers, Pistons, Cavs, and Knicks can each make a case that they might have gotten better as well. That's not a backsliding conference.


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## E.H. Munro

JonMatrix said:


> -The Hawks might still have enough with Teague, Smith, and Horford to make a playoff push. If they have injuries or Smith indicates he's leaving, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a fire sale.


Pssst. C'mere for a second. Have you looked at that roster? They've already started the firesale. It may continue.



JonMatrix said:


> -Would Philly make a move to rent James Harden and roll the dice on convincing him to stay? Turner and Hawes for Harden, maybe cash considerations or a scrub to make the money match up. If Harden is as good as people think he is, Philly would be significantly improved. Or if him and Bynum both leave next summer, then Philly would be bad enough to tank for the 2014 draft, which is supposed to be a really good one.


Philly might like to, but I sincerely doubt that OKC moves Harden and if/when they do it's going to be for a young shooting guard. Put another way it's far more likely that he goes to DC for Beal and a 2013 #1 than to Philly for more lowly rated prospects.



R-Star said:


> Fair enough, pretty much the same list I had. With Philly possibly moving up a spot or two, but we'll have to wait and see how everyone plays together.


Yeah, Philly's at the mercy of Bynum's motivation. If he's motivated and they can turn Turner/Hawes or Young/Hawes into a prime wing scorer they'll be legitimate contenders.



e-monk said:


> just looking at the roster as constituted: who is going to start at SF for the Hawks? and why are they stock piling small point guards?


They're not. The franchise is being sold, that's why they brought in Ferry to raze it to the ground. They were willing to make an exception for a Dwight Howard deal, because that would have added millions to the franchise's resale value, but now they're trying to clearcut the 2014 cap figure so that they can sell prospective owners on the benefits of being able to sign two max players and assembling _Schmuperfriends, Son of Superfriends_ (rep for anyone that gets that). What they're collecting is expiring deals. As of today all they have on their 2014 cap is Horford and the rookie scale players, and if they continue the firesale it would likely be in the form of Horford for draft picks.


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## ATLien

And I don't want to hear one of you critizing the Hawks for doing that since everyone here was on Atlanta's ass for "settling for mediocrity" and "making the playoffs." 

Can't have it both ways.


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## BlakeJesus

I'd say there's roughly a 0% chance we are the 2 seed this upcoming season.


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## E.H. Munro

ATLien said:


> And I don't want to hear one of you critizing the Hawks for doing that since everyone here was on Atlanta's ass for "settling for mediocrity" and "making the playoffs."
> 
> Can't have it both ways.


If Josh Smith can convince his BFF to come to Atlanta next summer then it will definitely have been worthwhile (doubly so if the two of them convince CP3 to join them). And if you see Horford traded then we'll all know that's the plan.


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## e-monk

E.H. Munro said:


> If Josh Smith can convince his BFF to come to Atlanta next summer then it will definitely have been worthwhile (doubly so if the two of them convince CP3 to join them). And if you see Horford traded then we'll all know that's the plan.


the plan is to do a 3 team trade where Pau goes to some 3rd party - they send a 6m expiring to the lakers and picks and prospects to the Hawks who then send J Smooth to LA


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## E.H. Munro

That trade actually makes considerably less sense for the Hawks, as it leaves them a 40 win team neither good enough nor bad enough to get anywhere.


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## e-monk

E.H. Munro said:


> That trade actually makes considerably less sense for the Hawks, as it leaves them a 40 win team neither good enough nor bad enough to get anywhere.


how are they getting to 40 wins on picks and prospects? they dont get Pau in the 3 team scenario I'm describing


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## E.H. Munro

Horford and Teague are a pretty good combination. If they're looking to tear down to the ground they need to lose the long term all-star, not the expiring deal.

EDIT: To reiterate here, the team is being sold _this_ year. There's very little chance that they'll do anything to raise the long term payroll because one of their potential selling pitches to billionaires with more cash than common sense is the ability to sign two max players. The ability to add one max guy to middle of the road team isn't much of a selling point.


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## e-monk

E.H. Munro said:


> Horford and Teague are a pretty good combination. If they're looking to tear down to the ground they need to lose the long term all-star, not the expiring deal.
> 
> EDIT: To reiterate here, the team is being sold _this_ year. There's very little chance that they'll do anything to raise the long term payroll because one of their potential selling pitches to billionaires with more cash than common sense is the ability to sign two max players. *The ability to add one max guy to middle of the road team isn't much of a selling point.[/*QUOTE]
> 
> dude: 3rd team gets Pau, Hawks get picks and prospects, Lakers get J Smooth and cap relief - it's going to happen, Mitch has decided, so it's only a matter of time


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