# All-Americans



## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

Any thoughts? 

I would go

Jordan Taylor, PG Wisconsin
Jimmer Fredette, SG BYU
Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas
Derrick Williams PF Arizona
Jared Sullinger, C Ohio St


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

2nd Team

Kemba Walker, PG UConn
Nolan Smith, PG Duke
Reggie Jackson, SG Boston College
John Jenkins, SG Vanderbilt
JuJuan Johnson, C Purdue


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

Smith
Walker
Fredette
Hamilton
Sullinger


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## SheriffKilla (Jan 1, 2004)

Smith
Fredette
Walker
Sullinger
D.Williams


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

I don't see what Nolan Smith and Kemba Walker have done to be included over Jordan Taylor...

To me, the first player up for debate would be Jordan Hamilton. He's slightly more productive than Kemba Walker and very similar to Nolan Smith in that regard...but I feel like Texas' resurgence is so noteworthy that Hamilton would be the valid 5th choice. 

If I were to rank for NPOY, I would go with: 

1. Derrick Williams
2. Jared Sullinger
3. Jimmer Fredette
4. Jordan Taylor
5. Jordan Hamilton
6. Nolan Smith
7. Kemba Walker
8. JuJuan Johnson
9. John Jenkins
10. Reggie Jackson

I suppose Terrence Jones needs to be on the list somewhere as well, but several of his best games have come against horrible teams from the SEC West and that inflates his accomplishments by quite a bit. 

Also Marcus Morris and Jordan Williams would be in the discussion. 

Klay Thompson and Isaiah Thomas haven't played well lately and I wouldn't consider either player, but both could work their way back into the mix. Tu Holloway from Xavier as well, perhaps?


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## JuniorNoboa (Jan 27, 2003)

Jonathan Watters said:


> I don't see what Nolan Smith and Kemba Walker have done to be included over Jordan Taylor...
> 
> To me, the first player up for debate would be Jordan Hamilton. He's slightly more productive than Kemba Walker and very similar to Nolan Smith in that regard...but I feel like Texas' resurgence is so noteworthy that Hamilton would be the valid 5th choice.
> 
> ...


Would you consider Rick Jackson a contender for third team All-American? If not, if Syracuse had been playing much better would you possibly see him as a third team all-americam?

I thought he was borderline, but probable when Syracuse was a top 5 team. Probably not anymore.


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

Jackson has played well, but probably not All-American caliber at this point. I have him at 13.8 pts, 12.5 reb and 2.62 blk per pace adjusted 40 minutes in games that matter. 

He's definitely an elite defender and taking the weight off has helped his impact as a shot blocker for sure. But I still expect my All-Americans to shoulder more of the offensive load than Jackson does. I would also point to his struggles at the free throw line - not only the poor percentage, but the overall lack of attempts. 

CJ Fair has been a surprise though - 14.4 pts and 7.7 reb per 40 and can increase those numbers by a lot if he gets stronger, he should to be a worthy successor to Joseph for Syracuse's impressive line of athletic combo forward types...

The rest of the freshman class is up and down, Melo is a mess, Waiters can't shoot but I'm still optimistic about his chances. Waiters is averaging 3.0 steals/40 and I would think he'll eventually get the shooting issues figured out once he gets consistent minutes. Keita looks like a keeper as well, averaging 9.7 reb and 4.0 blocks per 40. Seems like an active defender as well, like he could be playing a few more minutes than he currently is.


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## kansasalumn (Jun 9, 2002)

JW, why not Marcus or even Markieff Morris in your top 2 All-American list? SInce KU hs been a top 5 team all year, you would think one or two players would be on the All-American teams


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

They are certainly productive enough to make it, but I don't know how much they stand out from their teammates. Marcus only plays 27 mpg and Markieff just 24 mpg, so that hurts them. I would point out that their backup (Thomas Robinson) is just as productive as they are. 

Nonetheless, Marcus is definitely in the mix and would be my #1 choice on the 3rd team. I couldn't argue much with him over Jenkins or Jackson.


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

How exactly has Jordan Taylor been better than Nolan Smith? 

I can see Kemba Walker as his play has fallen off a little bit since Big East play started, but I don't agree with Nolan Smith. 

Smith is averaging 22 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds a game, while shooting 48% from the field, 83% from the line and 36% from 3. Taylor is averaging 18 points, 5 assists and 4.5 boards a game, while shooting 46% from the field, 85% from the line and 42% from 3. Beyond individual numbers, Smith plays on a better team. I love Taylor's game and he is a damn good player, but I don't quite agree with him being a first team All-American over Smith.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

First of all, Duke plays at a much faster pace than Wisconsin (like 25% more possessions per game), so comparing raw stats like that is slightly unfair. In reality they're just about even. Secondly, yes exactly Smith plays on a FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR better team, and yet Wisconsin is going to crack the top 10 because of Jordan Taylor. Without Nolan Smith (and without Kyrie Irving) Duke is still a good team; without Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin is very poor.

Also, Smith turns the ball over twice as much.


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## kansasalumn (Jun 9, 2002)

If you look at KU team compare to other teams MPG for KU players will be significant less for the best players compare to others because Kansas has a deep team 2 or 3 deep at each position We go 8-9 deep for a closs game, and 9-11 deep for blowouts, and the way KU been playing in the big 12 exept vs UT KU winning margin is 20+ no need for Marcus and Keiff to play more than 30 MPG.


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

Nimreitz said:


> First of all, Duke plays at a much faster pace than Wisconsin (like 25% more possessions per game), so comparing raw stats like that is slightly unfair. In reality they're just about even. Secondly, yes exactly Smith plays on a FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR better team, and yet Wisconsin is going to crack the top 10 because of Jordan Taylor. Without Nolan Smith (and without Kyrie Irving) Duke is still a good team; without Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin is very poor.
> 
> Also, Smith turns the ball over twice as much.


Take Smith off of Duke and they fall off a lot, especially without Irving. UNC would have blown out Duke if it wasn't for Smith. 

I love Taylor's game though and he is worth every bit the hype he is receiving. I prefer Smith, but really see no problem with Taylor also being a 1st team All-American at this stage.


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## thatbracketguy (Feb 16, 2011)

Taylor
Fredette
Hamilton
Williams
Sullinger

I would LOVE to put Kenneth Faried on the list, but he just hasn't faced tough enough competitors. He's an absolute beast.

www.thatbracketguy.com


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

bball2223 said:


> Take Smith off of Duke and they fall off a lot, especially without Irving. UNC would have blown out Duke if it wasn't for Smith.
> 
> I love Taylor's game though and he is worth every bit the hype he is receiving. I prefer Smith, but really see no problem with Taylor also being a 1st team All-American at this stage.


From a statistical perspective, Taylor is clearly better than Smith at this point. His Ast/TO ratio is unheard of in such a high usage player at the college level, Ty Lawson is the only player I can think of that compares in the last 10 years. 

Smith had a big time game against UNC w/ leading Duke to the comeback and all, but Taylor might have the top individual game performance of the season so far in the win vs Ohio St.


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

kansasalumn said:


> If you look at KU team compare to other teams MPG for KU players will be significant less for the best players compare to others because Kansas has a deep team 2 or 3 deep at each position We go 8-9 deep for a closs game, and 9-11 deep for blowouts, and the way KU been playing in the big 12 exept vs UT KU winning margin is 20+ no need for Marcus and Keiff to play more than 30 MPG.


Regardless of need, there are players out there more productive than Morris that have played the full game. I give a lot of credit to Kansas' roleplayers for those wins - Taylor, Reed, Morningstar, Selby, Little and Robinson are extremely good players and make Morris more productive. It isn't just Morris going out there and putting games away early 1 on 5 like Kemba Walker was out in Maui. 

For example, Brady Morningstar has a 3.2 Ast/TO ratio in games that matter - 57% of his FGA's are 3's and he hits at a 44% clip. He might not be on the list of best guards in the country, but you won't find a better low-usage complementary guard I can assure you of that. 

69% of Tyrel Reed's shots are 3's, and he makes more than 40% of them. 

Thomas Robinson is averaging 15.4 rebounds per pace-adjusted 40 minutes, a number that may very well rank him as the best per minute rebounder on any high-major conference team. 

Tyshawn Taylor doesn't look good from a statistical perspective, but we all know he is an elite on-ball defender. 

So while the Morris Twins certainly deserve a level of hype, I think you could plug in a handful of guys from around the country as go-to scorers in this system and they would produce like all-americans.


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

It is pretty obvious I made a mistake by omitting Terrence Jones from my original lists. He has to be on there, and I would take off either Reggie Jackson or John Jenkins.


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

2 new players may have worked their way into the discussion. 

The first would be *E'Twaun Moore*, who has exploded after a rough start to the Big Ten slate. His epic 38 point performance in the win over OSU was a sign, but he finally started to shoot the ball well at the beginning of Feb and hasn't let up. In games that matter, avg/40 pace adjusted: 

*35.5 mpg, 21.2 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.9 ast, 1.94 TO, 1.06 stl, 0.81 blk, 53.4 TS% 71.3 FT%, 40.9 3P%, .28 FTR, .39 3PR*

His scoring efficiency still isn't particularly impressive, but he makes up for it by contributing in all the other categories. 

In addition, I would now look at *Nikola Vucevic* from USC as a possible candidate. USC has been extremely up and down on the year, but has wins over Tennessee and Texas in the non-conference and Vucevic put up 25 and 12 in the win over Arizona this week. Vucevic has been a known commodity since his NCAA Tourney performance as a freshman, but I don't know if he's gotten much national pub at all for the whale of a season he is putting in. 

Once again in games that matter, /40 and pace adjusted averages: 

*34.7 mpg, 21.8 pts, 12.3 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.66 TO, 0.67 stl, 1.41 blk, 59.7 TS%, 77.6 FT%, 39.3 3-PT%, .29 FTR, .21 3PR*

Would be nice to see him block more shots and get to the line a little more, but he's added a 3-point shot this year and looks like the obvious 2nd best player in the Pac-10 behind Derrick Williams - would the average college bball fan realize this? 

-----

I would also make a case that both these players are severely underrated on 2011 mock draft boards. 

Moore had a serious problem with his shooting efficiency, but if he can prove to the scouts that the last month isn't an aberration I think he's an NBA player. Certainly a tweener, but he can defend both guard spots from very early in his career as well as contribute as a secondary ballhandler. He has the semblance of a midrange game and can get by his man off the dribble...I think the high rate of rebounds and blocks proves that he is quite underrated athletically. Statistically he compares pretty well to a Randy Foye or even OJ Mayo, not nearly as polished as a scorer or as formidable as an athlete but much more capable of fitting into a team concept as a roleplayer. But all this depends on his being able to prove that he can knock down shots consistently. A month doesn't change 4 years of questionable output, especially when Moore has proven he can go on hot/cold streaks in the past. 

Vucevic gained some attention for holding his own against Michigan State's front line as an unheralded, physically outmatched freshman. Since then, he's developed his frame and his game, while continuing to show a knack for outworking opponents on the glass. He'll never be a star or anything other than a below average NBA athlete, but 6'10 guys that can rebound, defend and shoot the way that Vucevic does generally tend to stick around in some capacity. 

The biggest thing with these two players would be the undeniable way they contribute to winning games. Purdue is a three man team at best, with a bunch of mid-major players filling in the cracks. They are a legit Top 10 team, and this has everything to do with proven winners Moore and JuJuan Johnson. Without Vucevic, USC would be lucky to have 3 wins in the Pac-10 and has shown all the intangibles an NBA coach wants too see from very early in his career. 

I would also point to the 2011 draft market as a reason to consider these two, as the situation is beyond ugly. This year's draft projects as perhaps the worst since 2000, with likely roleplayers such as Derrick Williams and Jared Sullinger topping most draft boards. There's also the issue of the NBA lockout, which could keep numerous prospects in school. NBA teams have been dumping first rounders like rusty nickels, and there aren't likely to be a ton of high upside players to choose from. 

But if a team trying to compete in the short term would like to add a combo guard that can do multiple things in a pinch or an extra big guy for the end of the bench, Moore and Vucevic are two rookies who would know how to play within a system and might just be able to walk on the court without embarrassing themselves. How many other projected mid-first rounders can we say this about?


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

Jimmer vs Jordan Taylor...

I had to do some number-fudging to get a 20 game sample size for Jimmer, I basically dropped my minimum kenpom ranking for opponents to 125. This disqualified TCU and Wyoming from conference games, and a handful of non-conference opponents. Teams that normally wouldn't be considered include Utah, Air Force, New Mexico, Creighton, Vermont and Buffalo. 

It leaves Fredette's minutes-adjusted average kenpom opponent ranking at 70, which doesn't compare to Taylor's 41 but is certainly in line with a typical ACC, Pac-10 or SEC player's competition. 

(I also ran the numbers without the 8 questionable games and for the 12 remaining games his numbers were actually a little higher). 

Jimmer Fredette

*37.1 mpg, 30.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.7 ast, 3.90 to, 1.74 stl, 0.05 blk, 61.1 TS%, 89.3 FT%, 43.8 3P%, .40 FTR, .39 3PR, 33.36 poss/40 *

Jordan Taylor 

*36.7 mpg, 25.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 5.9 ast, 1.42 to, 0.84 stl, 0.06 stl, 61.6 TS%, 83.5 FT%, 43.3 3P%, .46 FTR, .37 3PR, 23.5 poss/40 *

As one can see, the major difference is that Fredette shoots more often and uses more possessions, while Taylor is dramatically less turnover prone. They are very similar players actually - they score with almost identical efficiency and in identical fashion, take a look at those %'s and rates. 

On the whole, Fredette rates out slightly better statistically and is more responsible for the success of a slightly better team, but in this sample Taylor has played tougher competition.

I think it is close enough for debate, and there is no other guard that could make the discussion. Jordan Taylor is clearly a first team All-American, even though it is very clear he isn't going to make it!


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## Jonathan Watters (Jul 20, 2002)

Looks like Terrell Stoglin is ACC freshman of the year...


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

I would definitely throw Jordan Taylor on the All-American first team, after watching more of him the past couple of weeks. Absolutely fantastic player.


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## KC696 (Feb 9, 2011)

Nolan Smith
Jimmer
Jordan Hamilton
Derrick WIlliams
Jared Sullinger

honorable mention- Marshon Brooks


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