# Blazers also trying to add Mike Conley Jr?



## craigehlo (Feb 24, 2005)

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-blazers052407

I hope this is rumor is true. Conley is a great PG, but it also indicates that there's no question that we know Oden is our man.


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

What will it take to get him though? Hopefully his agent can make things harder on the other teams by letting them know his desire to play with Oden.

Atlanta

Jack
Zach
Martell
2008 unprotected pick
4 2007 sencond round picks 

for 

#3
Childress


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## Blazer Freak (Jul 11, 2004)

Wow. Oden/Aldridge/Roy/Conley would be dominant. 19, 21, 23 and 19 respectively years old. Christ we could be dominant.


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## MARIS61 (Apr 28, 2003)

Worst possible scenario.

Conley is a short PG who can't hit from outside, has trouble when double-teamed, and declared several years too early. Sound familiar?

He's ridden Oden's coattails his entire career or else we'd never have heard his name.

Having him here would ultimately cause problems when Oden thinks he isn't playing enough minutes.

Hiring friends is just as stupid as hiring family.


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## TLo (Dec 27, 2006)

MARIS61 said:


> Worst possible scenario.
> 
> Conley is a short PG who can't hit from outside, has trouble when double-teamed, and declared several years too early. Sound familiar?
> 
> ...


For the most part I agree with this. I think people know how I feel about short point guards that can't shoot.


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## craigehlo (Feb 24, 2005)

MARIS61 said:


> Worst possible scenario.
> 
> Conley is a short PG who can't hit from outside, has trouble when double-teamed, and declared several years too early. Sound familiar?
> 
> ...


The "Conley hasn't done anything w/o Oden" argument is tired. Oden didn't play Ohio State's first 7 games and they went 6 and 1 during the stretch with Conley leading the way. Conley was the reason Ohio State made it to the Championship game since Hibbert got Oden in foul trouble in the Final Four game. 

Conley has crazy handles, excellent speed and good court vision. His shooting isn't s good as say Steve Nash, but it's on par with our current streak shooting PGs. He's a big upgrade over Jack IMHO.

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## Public Defender (May 5, 2003)

I don't see Conley as a huge upgrade over Jarrett Jack or Sergio at this point. All three have some distance to come to be truly dependable NBA point guards. Will Conley eventually be better than JJ and Sergio? Very hard to tell. If he can translate his defense to the pros, and can polish his outside game, then maybe. But if JJ can tighten his perimeter D and improve his transition decision-making, he's got the makings of a great PG. Likewise, if Sergio can become a better defender and learn the NBA game a little better, he might be the best of the three. My feeling is that if the Blazers can add Conley Jr. without messing with the core (Roy, Aldridge, the #1), then fine - so long as the team doesn't get robbed in the process, of course.


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## Talkhard (May 13, 2003)

The Denver Nuggets did the same thing back in the 70's when they drafted David Thompson and his buddy Monty Towe from NC State. Towe never amounted to much in the NBA, and was out of the league in two years. It's a dubious idea, unless Conley really is that good. I suspect, however, that Sergio Rodriquez is just as good as Conley, if not better.


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## Ukrainefan (Aug 1, 2003)

If the Blazers think Conley has more upside than Jarret Jack, then i think they should go after him. I think they could get him a lot lower than #3 though, he is not a Chris Paul or Deron Williams and there are some really good players out there in the draft. I have suggested in another thread trading Jarrett Jack to Atlanta for their #11 if Conley is available at that spot. If he's not available, they can tell Oden they made a try for him. I wouldn't be adverse to including Martell Webster and a 2nd round pick. I'm still hoping Zach can be used to get Rashard Lewis or Keven Garnett here; if that's not possible, it might be best to keep him.


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## Blazed (May 24, 2006)

I'd rather trade for Brewer. Point guards that come out earlier than they should almost always bust.


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## Mateo (Sep 23, 2006)

Agreed, drafting friends is not a good idea. Besides, Portland is fine in PG. Jack being a defensive minded, get out of the way on offense, PG is fine for this soon-to-be loaded team. And Sergio is your spark off the bench who might take over starter position eventually. That's a perfectly fine starter/backup combo in my book.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

I love this line...



> After talking with confidants about Portland winning the No. 1 pick, Oden expressed relief that he was going to a smaller market. He never has been enamored with the bright lights and big city.


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## BuckW4GM (Nov 2, 2005)

i say no to conley jr. he doesn't impress me at all. he does have great handles and he's got great poise as a pg, but his shooting is suspect. he doesn't have great court vision either, certainly not on par with sergio. we have a better pg in sergio. why go through the trouble and get conley?


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## B_&_B (Feb 19, 2004)

I dont want Conley either. I'm not all that impressed with him and I think Jack and Sergio will have better careers.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?playerId=19055&draftyear=2007



> Mike Conley
> Point Guard (Rank: #8) | 6-0, 170 | Age: 19
> Ohio State (Freshman)
> Hometown: Indianapolis, IN
> ...


One thing to keep in mind is that its been said that Atlanta has tried to get Jack from us before, and Jack did play his college ball at Georgia Tech.


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## Talkhard (May 13, 2003)

B_&_B said:


> One thing to keep in mind is that its been said that Atlanta has tried to get Jack from us before, and Jack did play his college ball at Georgia Tech.


Which is a big reason why the Hawks want him.


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## craigehlo (Feb 24, 2005)

I'm convinced that most people quick to criticizes Conley for being too short or not as good as Jack don't watch much college hoops. Conley was instrumental in getting Ohio State their top NCAA seeding and pretty much won the Georgetown game on his stealer play with Oden on the bench. Even in the Championship he made Taurean Green look silly by playing some very nice D and taking the ball coast-to-coast. Conley has true PG skills (passing, breaking down defenses) that Jack hasn't displayed yet. I like Jack, but he's painfully average for an NBA PG and better suited to coming off the bench for a contender. 

For the record he's listed as 6'1" 180 on all the websites. Not tall, but not some midget either.

Here's what Mike can do to opposing defenses:

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## SheedSoNasty (Dec 31, 2002)

mediocre man said:


> What will it take to get him though? Hopefully his agent can make things harder on the other teams by letting them know his desire to play with Oden.
> 
> Atlanta
> 
> ...


That's going WAY overboard.


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## mook (Dec 31, 2002)

Blazed said:


> I'd rather trade for Brewer.


truth. 

I had no problem with the Blazers picking up Nikita Murgonov because Sabonis liked him. but that was a favor that only cost us our 14th roster slot and petty cash. this is a top 10 draft pick we are talking here. 

we've already got two decent prospects at PG, but that's beside the point for me. in the draft, I'm all about Best Player Available, not Best Friend of the Best Player Available. I really like what I see in Brewer, and that he's a perfect fit for our team is just icing on the cake.


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## crowTrobot (Jun 24, 2005)

lol at the idea of trading a ton of value to get the #3 pick... then using it to take conley over wright, brewer, horford etc.

anyway, with roy likely to be running the point 1/2 the time no matter who he's playing with, we need our guards to have range more than anything - which is conley's weak point.


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## glazeduck (Mar 20, 2007)

It doesn't shock me about KP wanting Conley. While he may not be the complete player that Jack is or have the pizzazz that Serg does, I think his ceiling is higher than both and he's exactly the type of player that Nate and Pritch love. Beyond the fact that he's the best friend of one of the potentially most dominating big men in the history of the game, (which woudl probably help both of their progressions) he's very smart, he's extremely fast, he plays with outstanding defensive fundamentals, he runs a team flawlessly well for his age, knows when to drive, shoot and pass, and he hits clutch shots. It makes sense to me.

NOW, that being said if I were KP I'd be careful what i gave up for him. Jack or Sergio would obviously be expendable, so throw one of them in. Next years #1 since we want to be running a professional basketball team not a nursery would probably be available as well. Beyond that, a few seconds? Maybe Dan Dickau or Freddie? I say this because its not like we have a need at PG like we do at SF and I think thats where most of our assets need to be used. Zach mainly, but Martell if he gets traded, and the rest of the gang need to fetch us a scoring 3 to match Zach's 23 pts per last year. Conley makes sense to me because he could be a great pg in a few years and really, we don't NEED to win now. With Miles and Zbo shippin out and a superstar type prospect coming in that the fans can root for, Conley would have at least a year to learn the nba...If Zbo+ could get a guy like a rashard lewis, shawn marion, etc, Atlanta took BWright or Horford at 3 and somehow conley was available at 11 with ATL preferring Jack to Conley then I'd love to make that deal work...its just not one i'd overpay for.


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## Fork (Jan 2, 2003)

BuckW4GM said:


> i say no to conley jr. he doesn't impress me at all. he does have great handles and he's got great poise as a pg, but his shooting is suspect. he doesn't have great court vision either, certainly not on par with sergio. we have a better pg in sergio. why go through the trouble and get conley?


6.1 assists per game as a freshman = no court vision? Chris Paul averaged 5.9 assists per game as a freshman. I'd say his court vision compares pretty well to Paul's.

There's a reason people are talking about him as a top 5-10 pick in one of the best and deepest drafts in the lottery era. He's a stud.


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## craigehlo (Feb 24, 2005)

mook said:


> truth.
> 
> I had no problem with the Blazers picking up Nikita Murgonov because Sabonis liked him. but that was a favor that only cost us our 14th roster slot and petty cash. this is a top 10 draft pick we are talking here.


Comparing Conely to Murgonov is a joke. If people want to say Conely is nothing w/o Oden, they have to say the same thing about Brewer being nothing w/o Horford and Noah. 

Conley was a McDonald's All American coming out of high school and heavily recruited by all the big programs. He's legit.


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## BuckW4GM (Nov 2, 2005)

Fork said:


> 6.1 assists per game as a freshman = no court vision? Chris Paul averaged 5.9 assists per game as a freshman. I'd say his court vision compares pretty well to Paul's.


did i say no court vision? he's the type of pg that really dominates the ball. his team scores from either him passing to an immediate shooter or he scores it himself. he'll put up nice scoring and assist numbers, but it's all about him. reminds you of a midget portland pg awhile back? i think any team that drafts him in the top 5 is nuts. i wouldn't even draft him top 10.

the best pg out of this draft is crittenton, and you can draft him maybe in the 20's.


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## JerryWest (Jun 24, 2002)

Conley is overrated and definately not better than Jack, although if you let Jack go, there are plenty of teams that would love to have him.


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## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

Fork
There's a reason people are talking about him as a top 5-10 pick in one of the best and deepest drafts in the lottery era. He's a stud.[/QUOTE said:


> Amen! I have been on the Conley bandwagon for some time. Who cares who his friends/team-mates are? The kid can play.
> 
> If he falls out of the top 10, he will be the steal of the draft.


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## c_note (Jan 30, 2007)

MARIS61 said:


> Worst possible scenario.
> 
> Conley is a short PG who can't hit from outside, has trouble when double-teamed, and declared several years too early. Sound familiar?
> 
> ...


I've held this same belief for quite some time as well. I don't understand why he is hyped so much. Ain't that hard with the consensus #1 on your team your entire life.


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## mook (Dec 31, 2002)

craigehlo said:


> Comparing Conely to Murgonov is a joke. If people want to say Conely is nothing w/o Oden, they have to say the same thing about Brewer being nothing w/o Horford and Noah.
> 
> Conley was a McDonald's All American coming out of high school and heavily recruited by all the big programs. He's legit.


Obviously, Conley is better than Murgonov in every imaginable way. (So is pretty much every NBA player this side of Mark Madsen, and probably all of the guys in the first round of this draft.) 

It's a question of doing a favor by hiring a friend of your starting center, or doing what's best for the team. 

In the Sabonis case, the stakes were extremely low, so why not? 

In the Oden/Conley case, the stakes are way too high to even factor in Oden's personal friendships.


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## sa1177 (Feb 18, 2005)

mediocre man said:


> What will it take to get him though? Hopefully his agent can make things harder on the other teams by letting them know his desire to play with Oden.
> 
> Atlanta
> 
> ...


Salaries aren't even remotely close...I don't believe ATL is enough under the cap to take back this much $$$ in salaries.


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## Stepping Razor (Apr 24, 2004)

mook said:


> Obviously, Conley is better than Murgonov in every imaginable way. (So is pretty much every NBA player this side of Mark Madsen...)


But Madsen compensates with his superior dancing skillz


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## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

BuckW4GM said:


> the best pg out of this draft is crittenton, and you can draft him maybe in the 20's.


Just curious what you see in Crittenton that is that much better than Conley? I know he is 4" taller.....but size doesn't matter that much. (unless you are TLO or Paris Hilton) :biggrin:


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## craigehlo (Feb 24, 2005)

c_note said:


> I've held this same belief for quite some time as well. I don't understand why he is hyped so much. Ain't that hard with the consensus #1 on your team your entire life.


So they are always on the floor at the same time? That argument doesn't hold water since Oden missed the first 7 games of the year and Conley looked VERY good (and they only lost one game in that stretch).

He handles the ball well against the press, plays solid D on the ball and can cut to the lane for a floater or a nice dish to the open man. 

He's already a better PG than Jack if you watched the Final Four and Championship game. He was great in the regular season and even better under March Madness pressure.


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## BuckW4GM (Nov 2, 2005)

Oldmangrouch said:


> Just curious what you see in Crittenton that is that much better than Conley? I know he is 4" taller.....but size doesn't matter that much. (unless you are TLO or Paris Hilton) :biggrin:


size does matter very much. i like big pg. crittenton has the tools to be a very good defender at pg or sg. i think he's a bigger and better version of jack. crittenton is very athletic, developing a nice midrange shot, and he's a true pg at 6'5".


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## Sambonius (May 21, 2003)

Like others said, if we were to acquire another top pick I'd rather use it on someone like Corey Brewer or Julian Wright. Conley may be a better prospect than Jack but I don't see him being better than Sergio. I'm okay with acquiring another pick but I'd like to fill it with an all defensive small forward like Brewer is projected to be.


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## LameR (Jan 4, 2004)

Blazed said:


> I'd rather trade for Brewer. Point guards that come out earlier than they should almost always bust.


Agreed,


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

crowTrobot said:


> lol at the idea of trading a ton of value to get the #3 pick... then using it to take conley over wright, brewer, horford etc.


My thoughts exactly.

When that columnist postulated that Portland might be able to get the #3 pick from Atlanta, I thought, "Wow, that would be cool...Brandon Wright would be an exciting pickup." To do it for Conley Jr. would be a tragic comedy.


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## JonMatrix (Apr 8, 2003)

For the record, Jack started as a frosh at Georgia Tech and played alongside a dominant bigman in his own right, Chris Bosh. And without that dominant big as a sophmore, he led GT to the championship game when NO ONE thought they could get there. Even though they lost to a superior team...I still believe in Jack as a leader.

However, I don't think it would be smart to sacrifice too much for Conley, as he will likely be more of a project than Oden. Maybe Sign and Trade Outlaw to whoever drafts Conley for his rights. I'm not sold on trading Randolph yet, I still remember how much heart he showed against Dallas a few years ago in the playoffs and his post skills would be valuable especially in the West. Also, how is LaMarcus's condition right now? I remember him sitting out quite a bit at the end of the season. I think Randolph should be kept around for at least one more year or until the team is certain of Aldridge's health.

Possibly:
-S/T Outlaw for Conley's rights
-Trade Randolph for Rashard Lewis unless Aldridge is questionable


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## ThereIsNoTry (Oct 23, 2005)

Draft Conley for Oden.. having a good friend on a team helps, and it shows Oden that the management is loyal to him.

Good point?


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

ThereIsNoTry said:


> Draft Conley for Oden.. having a good friend on a team helps, and it shows Oden that the management is loyal to him.
> 
> Good point?


I don't mind employing a friend of Oden's at the league minimum to make him comfortable. The Bulls employed Jack Haley to be Rodman's friend and never let him off the bench. But they didn't trade key assets to get him.


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## ThereIsNoTry (Oct 23, 2005)

But the thing is Conley isn't a bad player and could be good, and probably will be good. But having Brewer would be crazy, and we would be huge athletic, and fast.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

ThereIsNoTry said:


> But the thing is Conley isn't a bad player and could be good, and probably will be good. But having Brewer would be crazy, and we would be huge athletic, and fast.


If the front office trades for Conley Jr. as a basketball decision, that's fine. But if they wouldn't have acquired him otherwise, I think it would be a mistake to do it for this reason.

Personally, I'm not a big believer in Conley as a good enough NBA player to be worth dealing Randolph for.


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## anorexorcist (Aug 3, 2005)

Here's something I proposed over at the Bulls forum that no one seems to have really said anything about yet...it would have to involve Boston and getting their #5 (presuming that ATL and Memphis don't take Conley):

Bulls

Outgoing:
Nocioni
PJ
Incoming:
Al Jefferson

Blazers

Outgoing:
Randolph
Incoming:
PJ
#5
Wally World

Celtics

Outgoing:
Al
Wally World
#5
Incoming:
Randolph
Nocioni

--We (Bulls) finally get our dream big and keep the #9 on top of that.
--Portland gets their guy (Conley) and some veteran experience w/PJ, and Wally to make the deal work numbers wise (and offense wise).
--Boston gets two immediate impact guys who will bring them back to respectability and possibly even the playoffs.

Everyone wins. What do you think?


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## BuckW4GM (Nov 2, 2005)

wow the bulls and the blazers brutally assaulted the celtics on that trade. i know ainge is nash-like as a gm, but...


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## c_note (Jan 30, 2007)

I just think he's not good enough to say "Be our point guard for the next 10 years". I'd rather say that to Sergio.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

anorexorcist said:


> Here's something I proposed over at the Bulls forum that no one seems to have really said anything about yet...it would have to involve Boston and getting their #5 (presuming that ATL and Memphis don't take Conley):
> 
> Bulls
> 
> ...


I think the Bulls win. I don't think it's a particularly good deal for Portland or Boston.

There's no way the Celtics prefer Zach over Jefferson. Nocioni doesn't make up the difference, IMO.

And the Blazers get the #5 pick for Zach and two negatives in PJ Brown and Wally Sczerbiak. Even if Brown retires, it's the #5 pick and a bad contract in Sczerbiak. I'm not convinced that the #5 pick will be as good or better than Randolph.

But the Bulls turning PJ Brown and Nocioni into Al Jefferson? Gold. I can see why you like the deal.  You give up little of value and get back a potential star-level power forward.


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## Bwatcher (Dec 31, 2002)

Mark Warkentein(sp?) has said something like: the ability to predict success for a player, decreases exponentially the farther the guy plays from the basket. PG is by far the most difficult position to predict success for. I think Best Player Available should apply here as elsewhere. Oden is going to face many new challenges this next year, being away from Conley can just be one of them. In fact, I would guess it would be lower risk to have Conley elsewhere than with Oden in Portland. Why be in a position of having to worry about the psyches of two 19 year olds, when you only really want to worry about just one? Why leave yourself open to Oden being dragged down by the problems Conley is having with Nate or with adjusting to the Pro game?


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## zagsfan20 (Dec 24, 2004)

I'm against playing musical chairs with point guards every year the draft comes along. I like Sergio as our starting PG of the future (maybe a lot more than most). 

Conley is going to be a good PG, but the people that are saying that he should be a top 3 pick are off their rocker. He's not even the best PG in this draft class.


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## Verro (Jul 4, 2005)

zagsfan20 said:


> I'm against playing musical chairs with point guards every year the draft comes along. I like Sergio as our starting PG of the future (maybe a lot more than most).
> 
> Conley is going to be a good PG, but the people that are saying that he should be a top 3 pick are off their rocker. He's not even the best PG in this draft class.


I agree completely, I'm not sure why everyone seems to have cooled on Sergio so much. I still think he'll eventually be a star in this league given playing time and the right system, I just hope it's here in Portland. 

As for Conley the only reason people are saying top 3 is because of Atlanta's situation, if that pick went to Phoenix Conley wouldn't be mentioned in the top 5.


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## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

zagsfan20 said:


> I'm against playing musical chairs with point guards every year the draft comes along. I like Sergio as our starting PG of the future (maybe a lot more than most).
> 
> Conley is going to be a good PG, but the people that are saying that he should be a top 3 pick are off their rocker. He's not even the best PG in this draft class.



Personally, I think he will be the best PG in this draft. That said, he is not a top 5 pick. I suppose that could change after the combine/workouts, but I would be amazed if he climbed higher than #6.

OTOH, I can't see him falling lower than Atlanta at #11. Since they really need a PG, they would probably be very happy to just keep him.

I really like the kid - but the more I look at it, the more doubtful I become that a deal can be made without the Blazers overpaying for him.


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## Spoolie Gee (Feb 3, 2005)

If we can get another lottery pick I'd prefer we used it on a SF or even another post player for depth.


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## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

Spoolie Gee said:


> If we can get another lottery pick I'd prefer we used it on a SF or even another post player for depth.


I hear what you are saying. My guess is that B Wright, Horford, and Jianlian are all off the board before Conley, so that may be a moot point.

Picking between Conley and Brewer or J Wright is a much tougher call.


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## dudleysghost (Mar 24, 2006)

Bwatcher said:


> Mark Warkentein(sp?) has said something like: the ability to predict success for a player, decreases exponentially the farther the guy plays from the basket. PG is by far the most difficult position to predict success for.


That's how I see it too. PG more than any other position requires the sort of intangibles that a scout can't see by looking at film, running drills and taking measurements. Plenty of guards like Mateen Cleeves dominate in college and then go on to do nothing in the league. It's just a different game.

Of course some players are can't miss, like Chris Paul and Deron Williams, but I don't see Conley being in that class. But even guys thought to be can't-miss like Billups and Nash, who are arguably 2 of the 3 best PGs in the game right now (Kidd the other), sometimes need many years to really become great.

It just doesn't seem sensible to reach for a PG in the draft. Someone else will grab Conley too high, and if we somehow acquire another top 10 pick, there are plenty of talented forwards we should be looking at instead.


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## 2k (Dec 30, 2005)

I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the swell of PGs in the 2008 draft. I’m all for giving Jack and Serg a chance to lead this team to the playoffs and you know what if they don’t lead the Blazers to the playoffs the Blazers will be in a very deep PG lotto next season.


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## Ed O (Dec 30, 2002)

Bwatcher said:


> Mark Warkentein(sp?) has said something like: the ability to predict success for a player, decreases exponentially the farther the guy plays from the basket.


I wonder if this is true.

Not that he said it, but whether what he said is true.

Big men flop all the time. The draft lottery is littered with centers and power forwards who never developed in the NBA. I'm sure that there are PG flops in the lottery, too, but the main "flops" I can think of (Antonio Daniels, Steve Francis) don't hold a candle to the Kandi- and Kwame-level flops that big men have brought us.

It might be argued that since big men are so coveted, they are reached for more often than PGs, leading to more flops... but wouldn't that discredit (or at least undermine) the predictability statement that Wark made?

Ed O.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Wow. Randolph and Jack? Sign me up!


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## dudleysghost (Mar 24, 2006)

Ed O said:


> I wonder if this is true.
> 
> Not that he said it, but whether what he said is true.
> 
> ...


If teams reach for big men, it doesn't change the relative predictability of the players themselves, it's just a natural reaction by GMs to the differential in predictability. If GMs notice that a differential exists, they will adjust their selection processes accordingly and tend to pick more big men early on.

There was one study last season, and I wish I could remember where it was, that looked at a bunch of years of draft history and categorized each player by position (PG, wing or big man) and by some kind of quasi-subjective valuation at the 5 year post-draft point, to see if there were trends in position and draft order. It was a bit fuzzy, but a pretty good methodology for the questions they were asking. IIRC, they found that the big men were a disproportionate share of the choices at the top third of the draft, were more likely to be huge busts, but were also the most likely to be stars.

The PG position was the one where a team was mostly likely to still find talent in the last third of the 1st round (they didn't look at the 2nd round). Despite big men being most likely to bust, PGs were perceived to have the _lowest correlation_ between draft position and valuation after 5 seasons, despite teams not usually reaching high for them.

I really wish I could remember where the article was. Maybe if someone else remembers they would be kind enough to remind me.


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## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

Ed O said:


> I wonder if this is true.
> 
> Not that he said it, but whether what he said is true.
> 
> ...


Interestingly, it used to be the "conventional wisdom", that big men were *less* predictable.

This was based on the notion that smaller players reached their prime at a younger age, while big men took more time to mature physically. Of course, this CW came from a time when most players entered the NBA at 21 or 22, and most had 4 years of college ball for the scouts to examine.


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## Ed O (Dec 30, 2002)

dudleysghost said:


> If teams reach for big men, it doesn't change the relative predictability of the players themselves, it's just a natural reaction by GMs to the differential in predictability. If GMs notice that a differential exists, they will adjust their selection processes accordingly and tend to pick more big men early on.


I'm not sure I follow this.

If you're saying that big men are more predictable, so they are placed at a premium by being drafted more highly, then that's one thing. I think that in my little hypothetical I was posing a higher bust rate as the given, so that doesn't seem to apply.



> There was one study last season, and I wish I could remember where it was, that looked at a bunch of years of draft history and categorized each player by position (PG, wing or big man) and by some kind of quasi-subjective valuation at the 5 year post-draft point, to see if there were trends in position and draft order. It was a bit fuzzy, but a pretty good methodology for the questions they were asking. IIRC, they found that the big men were a disproportionate share of the choices at the top third of the draft, were more likely to be huge busts, but were also the most likely to be stars.


Interesting. That would seem to indicate that big men are less predictable to me.

Maybe I'm just thinking about lottery here, and that's why we seem to be disagreeing.

Ed O.


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## Oldmangrouch (Feb 11, 2003)

It is possible that when it comes to big men, predictability is not the primary concern on draft day.

To put it another way, a team may be more inclined to gamble on a center who is 50% likely to be a bust, than they would on a perimeter player with the same odds of success/failure. They are more inclined to accept the risk, because the *perceived* reward is greater.


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