# Analyzing: Jonas Valančiūnas



## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

This is my third in-depth player analysis blog post. Please let me know what you think.

http://nothingbutbrunet.net/2013/11/25/jval/

Here are a few excerpts:



> Jonas has been in the statistical middle ground at his position – or possibly just below it – all year. 22 centers have started at least 7 games (approximately half of the average team games played) so far this season. Among them, JVal is 13th in scoring, 12th in Points in the Paint, 12th in Second Chance Points, 10th in OReb, 17th in Assists, 13th in Turnovers, 19th in TS%, and 10th in Usage Rate. That’s basically the definition of an average starting center. Not bad for a 21-year old, but not outstanding in any way, either.





> He doesn’t really have much of a face-up game to compliment his post play. He throws out a lot of shot fakes but almost never actually shoots a midrange jumper. The ones he does shoot are usually short.





> Another common, very positive theme I noticed in Jonas' defensive game is his undying will to help out his teammates. That will sometimes get him out of position, but he should improve that slight deficiency with age. What he excels at surprisingly often for such a young player is identifying when his teammate is beat (despite the Raptors' overall lack of verbal communication) and covering ground to help out.


Feedback is much appreciated.


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## Luke (Dec 7, 2008)

Porn Player is probably going to be pissed.

I thought this one was well done just like the others. It's not like I watch a lot of Toronto ball so it's nice to read an in depth analysis like this


Sent from Verticalsports.com Free App


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## Basel (Mar 31, 2005)

@Porn Player will be happy that this is a purely objective analysis. I haven't seen much of the Raptors this season, so I love reading these because it gives me insight to these players for the next time I watch them. I can keep an eye out for certain things (pump fakes, shots outside of 12 feet, post-up moves, etc.). Great work again, RWE.


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## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

Luke said:


> *Porn Player is probably going to be pissed.*
> 
> I thought this one was well done just like the others. It's not like I watch a lot of Toronto ball so it's nice to read an in depth analysis like this
> 
> ...


Why? Its not like he compared Val's ceiling to a prime Tim Duncan or anything...


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

I'm pissed. I just don't have time to ruin his analysis at the moment.


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

> He throws out a lot of shot fakes but almost never actually shoots a midrange jumper. The ones he does shoot are usually short.


This is completely off. Jonas has a great stroke all the way out to 18 ft. I will admit he seems hesitant in shooting it this year, which would lead me to believe Casey has told him not to shoot from mid-range. Bad coaching. 



> According to NBA.com’s marvelous SportVu-powered statistics page, JVal has only managed to hit two shots outside of 12 feet all season. That’s not going to cut it in a 7-game series when teams focus in defensively.


Incorrect. 

JV is 4/8 past 12 feet this year. That means he is shooting 50% for the year from further out, but he obviously isn't shooting the ball enough. Again, I think something is array with the coaching staff here. 

You also failed to mention the fact he is already one of the best big men FT shooters in the league. 80% from the charity stripe is testament to his good shooting form. 

In the games I have seen this year of Val, the 1st quarter is inevitably his high point. He is fed the ball and usually does well to produce. 

Is there any way to check 1st quarter production vs. his peers? I would also be very curious to see a break down of Vals 1st qtr stats vs. the other quarters. 

He is suffering from a poor coach that is indecesive in how best to use him, he is also on a team with 3 players that do not move the ball very well and allow opposition teams to clog the paint, giving Jonas little to no room to operate. 

I agree he needs some work defensively, but the offense is ready for a greater workload, he just needs to relax a little more and his boundless hustle and good shooting stroke will take him to 14ppg by season end.


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## LeGoat06 (Jun 24, 2013)

@Luke well looky there you were right


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

These are the only JV full game highlights I can find. What is the common theme throughout?






And again.. 






And again...






Valanciunas has been very good in most 1st quarters this year. A player doesn't just 'lose' that for the other 3 quarters, the coaching staff repeatedly get it wrong with our rotation and his production is suffering.


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## AllRim (Jun 19, 2012)

Porn Player said:


> This is completely off. Jonas has a great stroke all the way out to 18 ft. I will admit he seems hesitant in shooting it this year, which would lead me to believe Casey has told him not to shoot from mid-range. Bad coaching.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


+1,000,000.

This small ball crap the Raptors are trying to pull is ruining JV's "stats". As PP said JV usually jumps out to an exceptional 1st Q then Casey limits his minutes.....

JV is the only Raptor worth arguing for!


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Here are JVal's ranks among other starting centers in first quarters only:

4th in Scoring (behind Cousins, Hibbert, and Brook Lopez)
3rd in FGA (behind Cousins and Hibbert)

5th in Reb (behind Cousins, Hibbert, Bogut, and DeAndre)
2nd in OReb
11th in DReb

15th in Assists
11th in Turnovers
18th in Steals
6th in Blocks (behind Hibbert, Brook Lopez, Faverani, Dalembert, and Drummond)

8th in FG%
11th in FTA
1st in FT% (tied with the other 4 centers who haven't yet missed a first quarter free throw)

10th in Plus/Minus

Also, here are his ranks in shooting percentage among other starting centers from each distance:

23rd in FG% from inside 5 feet (on 69 attempts)
9th in FG% from 5-9 feet (on 21 attempts)
16th in FG% from 10-14 feet (on 7 attempts)
12th in FG% from 15-19 feet (on 8 attempts)


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Porn Player said:


> JV is 4/8 past 12 feet this year.


He was 1 out of 4 in the 4 games I watched. He's shooting less than 1 a game on the season.


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

RollWithEm said:


> He was 1 out of 4 in the 4 games I watched. He's shooting less than 1 a game on the season.


That is not what you said. Don't change it up because you were caught out.


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

RollWithEm said:


> Here are JVal's ranks among other starting centers in first quarters only:
> 
> 4th in Scoring (behind Cousins, Hibbert, and Brook Lopez)
> 3rd in FGA (behind Cousins and Hibbert)
> ...


I hate to say it, but I told you so.

The weakest area of his repertoire is his passing/ball movement, but again, that's probably down to 'bad coaching' as it is a recurring theme throughout the entire Raptors squad.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Porn Player said:


> That is not what you said. Don't change it up because you were caught out.





Porn Player said:


> I hate to say it, but I told you so.
> 
> The weakest area of his repertoire is his passing/ball movement, but again, that's probably down to 'bad coaching' as it is a recurring theme throughout the entire Raptors squad.


Aren't you making the same point I was making? Do you think you're disagreeing with me?


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

RollWithEm said:


> Aren't you making the same point I was making? Do you think you're disagreeing with me?


You suggested Val often came up 'short' when shooting past 12ft, this was subsequently backed up with an incorrect fact, so yes, I was disagreeing with you. 

Maybe I missed the part of your article where much of Valanciunas' trouble was down to the poor coaching effort by our inadequate staff. 

I appreciate you posting the 1st Quarter stats, as I figured, his numbers are much more impressive for a 2nd year big man when looked at in a vacuum.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Porn Player said:


> You suggested Val often came up 'short' when shooting past 12ft, this was subsequently backed up with an incorrect fact, so yes, I was disagreeing with you.


I read the wrong line on my spreadsheet. I apologize and appreciate your fact checking. I actually made that change on my article. The correct line is still every bit as impactful, though. Instead of...

"JVal has only managed to hit two shots outside of 12 feet all season"

it now reads...

"JVal has only managed to hit four shots outside of 12 feet all season"

Same impact exactly. Who cares about a 50% shooting percentage if he only shoots 8 times in 13 games??? His jump shot is useless if he never uses it.

Also, in the four games I watched, he left every single jumper short. Even the one he made hit the front of the rim and bounced in. I even posted the video to show the three he shot that missed badly short. I don't have a vendetta against this player. I was merely reporting what I saw.



> Maybe I missed the part of your article where much of Valanciunas' trouble was down to the poor coaching effort by our inadequate staff.


I would never say something quite that subjective since I'm not at practice with them every day, but I did mention the possible incompatibilities between the styles of DeRozan, Lowry, and Gay being a contributing factor. I also mentioned the coaching decisions that were made in the specific games I watched. If you're looking for impartial, read my columns. If you're looking for subjectivity, listen to your local announce team.


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## Luke (Dec 7, 2008)

R-Star said:


> Why? Its not like he compared Val's ceiling to a prime Tim Duncan or anything...


He compared him to a young Tim Duncan.

I still do think he has a bright future ahead of him, however, I'll go on the record and say he'll never be a superstar.


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

Luke said:


> He compared him to a young Tim Duncan.
> 
> I still do think he has a bright future ahead of him, however, I'll go on the record and say he'll never be a superstar.


I compared his playing style to Tim Duncan.

Once he let's loose with that mid range game, everyone else will be saying it too.


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## Luke (Dec 7, 2008)

Porn Player said:


> I compared his playing style to Tim Duncan.
> 
> Once he let's loose with that mid range game, everyone else will be saying it too.


Yes, you have said they play the game in a
similar style. You also called Jonas the next Tim Duncan. 

You can't make a statement like "once he lets loose with that mid range game" when he's shooting less than 1 a game. That's like saying Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the next Larry Bird, just wait until he shows off that three ball. 

Players, especially young players, improve parts of their game. Obviously. Jodie Meeks went from being one of the worst finishers in the league a year ago to one of the best this year. But you can't just assume that Val is going to become a Tim Duncan esque shooter just because.


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## BobStackhouse42 (Oct 7, 2010)

I don't really watch Toronto games but he looks real slow in those clips. Maybe slower than Brook Lopez but without the scoring.


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

Luke said:


> Yes, you have said they play the game in a
> similar style. You also called Jonas the next Tim Duncan.
> 
> You can't make a statement like "once he lets loose with that mid range game" when he's shooting less than 1 a game. That's like saying Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the next Larry Bird, just wait until he shows off that three ball.
> ...


Can you quote me on that? I don't dispute that I would have went to those lengths, my fandom knows no bounds afterall, but I would like to see it rather than have you tell me I said it. 

Your comparison between MKG and Larry Bird makes you look stupid rather than makes your point. Jonas has a midrange game, he just isn't using it at the moment, which is definitely a negative, but it isn't to say that the shot isn't in his repertoire. 

Valanciunas has very good shooting form, you can tell that through his free throw shooting and those mid-rangers he has actually shot. 

Does he need to improve tremendously... yes

Do I have the right to be excited about Jonas... yes


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