# Break Down of 2004 Draft Prospects



## BG7 (Jun 25, 2003)

This is what theyll be in the league here is the grade.

1. Journey Man (Rick Brunson, Mark Pope)
2. Role Player (Derek Fisher, Kendall Gill)
3. Allstar (Elton Brand, Michael Redd)
4. Superstar (Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce)
5. Franchise Player (Shaq, KG, Tim Duncan)

Dwight Howard- Franchise Player
Emeka Okafur- Allstar
Josh Smith- Role Player
Shaun Livingston-role player
Luol Deng- Franchise Player
Adris Biedrins- Allstar
Andre Iguodala- Role Player
Pavel Podkolzine- Superstar
Ben Gordon- Role Player
Jameer Nelson- Allstar
Martynas Andriuskevicius-role player
Ivan Chriaev- Journeyman
Sebastion Telfair-Superstar
Devin Harris- Journeyman
Josh Childress- Superstar
Kris Humphries- role player
LaMarcus Aldrige-Role Player
Rafael Araujo-allstar
Hakim Warrick-role player
Sahsa Vujacic-journeyman
Marvin Williams-role player
Rashad McCants-Role player
Kirk Snyder-role player
Al Jefferson-role player
Ha Sueng Jin-allstar
Luke Jackson-journeyman
Tony Allen-role player
Victor Khryapa-allstar
Anderson Varejao-allstar


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## MJG (Jun 29, 2003)

Twelve all-star or better players? I'm no draft expert in any way, but that seems pretty high, especially for a draft that I've read over and over is pretty shallow in terms of big time players.


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## Jesus of CopyMat (Feb 14, 2004)

Well, here are my grades, assuming all are coming out, but knowing that some of them won't, and MJG, I don't think 12 is that high a number, but that's because I think "All-Star" means anyone who makes one All-Star team. Vin Baker would count. You get the picture. I only picked 8, though, and no franchise players.

Dwight Howard: Role Player
Emeka Okafur: All-Star
Josh Smith: Superstar
Shaun Livingston: All-Star
Luol Deng: Journeyman
Adris Biedrins: Role Player
Andre Iguodala: All-Star
Pavel Podkolzine: All-Star
Ben Gordon: Role Player
Jameer Nelson: Role Player
Martynas Andriuskevicius: All-Star
Ivan Chriaev: Journeyman
Sebastion Telfair: All-Star
Devin Harris: Journeyman
Josh Childress: Journeyman
Kris Humphries: Role Player
LaMarcus Aldrige: Role Player
Rafael Araujo: Journeyman
Hakim Warrick: Journeyman
Sahsa Vujacic: Role Player
Marvin Williams: Journeyman
Rashad McCants: Journeyman
Kirk Snyder: Role Player
Al Jefferson: All-Star
Ha Sueng Jin: Journeyman
Luke Jackson: Role Player
Tony Allen: Journeyman
Victor Khryapa: Role Player
Anderson Varejao: Journeyman


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## BG7 (Jun 25, 2003)

Do u really think Deng will be a brunson caliber player, and Josh Childress is an underated player and would be putting up bigger numbers on a different team.


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## Jesus of CopyMat (Feb 14, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>Golden Bull 23</b>!
> Do u really think Deng will be a brunson caliber player, and Josh Childress is an underated player and would be putting up bigger numbers on a different team.


I really do think Deng will be a journeyman, yes. Better than Brunson, but a journeyman, nonetheless. I could be wrong. Time will tell, but guys that come out of Duke don't exactly tend to exceed expectations, and I don't think it has anything to do with a curse. I think there are a lot of reasons behind it. They're like Nebraska in football. They win a lot of games at the college level, but their system is a college system, and their main priority is not to prepare players for the NFL. Same goes with Duke, and I'm not saying that it's a bad thing. Duke wins more than any other school. That's their priority. UCLA had a reputation in the years between Reggie Miller and Baron Davis (think O'Bannons), and maybe still does, of turning out players that were to soft for the pro level because of their overly-finesse (yeah, I know... not a real word) style of play. It was good for the college game. It won them a title, but Tyus Edney, Toby Bailey and the O'Bannons, as I said before, didn't exactly exceed expectations. Trends like this are always broken eventually, and there are always exceptions. I'm just not picking Deng to be that.

Childress? Well, he's gonna' be a mid-first round pick at best, and I like his game, but mid-first round picks in weak drafts usually don't become "All-Stars" or "Superstars". I'm not sayin' he's gonna' be horrible. I think he'll get paid to play basketball for a good decade, but I'm not gonna' say that I think he'll be a star, because I don't.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Golden Bull 23</b>!
> Jameer Nelson- Allstar
> Devin Harris- Journeyman
> Sahsa Vujacic-journeyman
> ...


I disagree with pretty much everything you said, but these are glaring in my opinion. Jameer Nelson is going to be an all-star while Devin Harris and Sasha Vujacic (widely regarded as the best point guard in Europe) will be journeymen? I disagree completely. In fact, of the three I expect Nelson to have the worst pro-career. He's 5'10'' and doesn't really excel at anything.

Ha Seung Jin is an all star and Luke Jackson is a journeyman. That's laughable. Luke Jackson can do everything and Ha Seung Jin can't do anything. I'll give you the extreme examples......remember, these are EXTREME

Jackson = Larry Bird (He's no Larry Legend, but he's like a Lesser Bird. Not a poor man's Bird, but a Soup Kitchen Bird)

Seung Jin = Muresan if he was worse than his worst season indicates (and i don't think this is even that extreme of a comparison)


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## kcchiefs-fan (Oct 28, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Golden Bull 23</b>!
> This is what theyll be in the league here is the grade.
> 
> 1. Journey Man (Rick Brunson, Mark Pope)
> ...


You really think Deng will be on the same level as Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett?


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## MagnusPinus (Aug 27, 2003)

Mines:
Dwight Howard- All-star Player
Emeka Okafor- Allstar
Josh Smith- All star Player
Shaun Livingston- role p
Luol Deng- all-star
Adris Biedrins- bust.(who knows anyway)
Andre Iguodala- all-star
Pavel Podkolzine- bust
Ben Gordon- Role Player
Jameer Nelson- Allstar
Martynas Andriuskevicius-role p
Ivan Chriaev- role p
Sebastion Telfair-role palyer
Devin Harris- role p-
Josh Childress- role p.
Kris Humphries- role player
LaMarcus Aldrige-bust
Rafael Araujo-role p
Hakim Warrick-role player
Sahsa Vujacic-journeyman
Marvin Williams-role player
Rashad McCants-all-star
Kirk Snyder-role player
Al Jefferson-role player
Ha Sueng Jin-bust
Luke Jackson-journeyman
Tony Allen-bust
Victor Khryapa-role player
Anderson Varejao-bust [/QUOTE]

Of course on some players I just tried to guess since I've never watche them.


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## knicksfan (Jan 4, 2003)

look out at livingston and telfair, i think telfair is gonna be awesome. ill go out on a limb and say jin is a bust


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## silverpaw1786 (Mar 11, 2004)

1. Journey Man (Rick Brunson, Mark Pope)
2. Role Player (Derek Fisher, Kendall Gill)
3. Allstar (Elton Brand, Michael Redd)
4. Superstar (Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce)
5. Franchise Player (Shaq, KG, Tim Duncan)

Josh Smith- Role Player
Will be at least an all star

Luol Deng- Franchise Player
Have you never seen the guy play? He's decent but lacks the aggression and shooting necessary to be the next KG, TD or shaq

Pavel Podkolzine- Superstar
Will be a life long upper echelon role player without a single all star appearance. He will take a while to become anything but raw talent

Josh Childress- Superstar
Have you seen him play even once? All the superstars you mention have the ability and use the ability to take over games. Childress is talented but he has no agression at all. B-U-S-T bust bust bust

LaMarcus Aldrige-Role Player
Will be a poor man's jermain o'neil

The rest I agree with or understand


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## OZZY (Jun 14, 2002)

Are you guys serious? Half of you have Jameer Nelson a NBA All Star PG? Ok if Sam Cassell just made his first All Star team this year what are the chances Nelson will be a All Star?


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

*Best Post*

Best Post by Ozzy EVER! Seriously lol.


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## Casual (Jun 2, 2003)

With comparisons if I see any.

Dwight Howard - All-star.
Emeka Okafur - All-star. Kenyon Martin.
Josh Smith - Role Player. Desmond Mason.
Shaun Livingston - Role player. Jamal Tinsely/Eric Snow mix.
Luol Deng - All-star. Carmelo Anthony.
Andre Iguodala - Role Player. Desmond Mason.
Ben Gordon - Role Player. 
Jameer Nelson - Role player. Eric Snow.
Sebastian Telfair - All-star. Baron Davis without the size.
Devin Harris- Journeyman.
Josh Childress - Journeyman.
Kris Humphries - Journeyman.
Hakim Warrick - Role player.
Rashad McCants - Superstar if he gets playing time. Paul Pierce. Role player if he doesn't. Dejaun Wagner.
Luke Jackson - Role player.


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## texan (Jul 10, 2003)

shaun livingston is gonna be a superstart pg. thats all i have to say.

Dwight Howard - All-star.
Emeka Okafur - All-star. 
Josh Smith - All Star
Shaun Livingston - Superstar
Luol Deng - All-star.
Andre Iguodala - Role Player. RJ.
Ben Gordon - Role Player. 
Jameer Nelson - Role player. 
Sebastian Telfair - All-star. Baron Davis without the size.
Devin Harris- Journeyman.
Josh Childress - Role Player
Kris Humphries - Journeyman.
Hakim Warrick - Role player.
Rashad McCants - All Star. 
Luke Jackson - Role player
raymond felton- all star
lemarcus aldridge- role player
al jefferson- bust


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## MJG (Jun 29, 2003)

*Re: Re: Break Down of 2004 Draft Prospects*

Again, I'll restate that I'm in no way savvy in terms of knowing anything about the draft until the month leading up to it, but I think many people are being way too generous with their rankings here. There simply aren't that many all-star or better players in each years draft. Even the better drafts only produce around 6-7 all-star level players usually. Some of the weaker ones only produce 2-3.

I also think there's a gap in the ranking system. There seems like there should be another level between role player and all-star. There's plenty of guys in the league that are better than role players, but aren't all stars either (Rip Hamilton, Mike Bibby, Antawn Jamison, etc).


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## CP26 (May 8, 2003)

*Re: Re: Break Down of 2004 Draft Prospects*



> Originally posted by <b>silverpaw1786</b>!
> 1. Journey Man (Rick Brunson, Mark Pope)
> 2. Role Player (Derek Fisher, Kendall Gill)
> 3. Allstar (Elton Brand, Michael Redd)
> ...


Josh Childress Superstar---Bust?


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## #1BucksFan (Apr 14, 2003)

You can't just label players. Who knew in 2001 that Mehmet Okur (#38) would have a better career so far then Eddie Griffin(#7), or that Mike Redd would be one of the top 2 players out of the 2000 draft class? I always say wait at least 3 years before labeling a draft class.


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## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

I will name my types of player, give a example of this kind of player and name how many players in the 2004 draft will end up like this...

Franchise Player: Tim Duncan, Shaq, Kobe (0)
Multiple All-Star: T-Mac, Vince, BWallace(2)
All-Star: R.Wallace, Redd, Cassell, A.Mason, Big Z(2)
Starter: D.Anderson, Van Horn, Snow, Houston(11)
Role Player: R.Patterson, Fisher, Najera(8)
Bust/Journeyman: Do I Really Need to Explain This?(6)

Dwight Howard- Multiple All-star 
Emeka Okafor- Multiple All-Star
Josh Smith- Starter
Shaun Livingston- Starter
Luol Deng- Starter
Adris Biedrins- All-Star
Andre Iguodala- Starter
Pavel Podkolzine- Starter
Ben Gordon- Role Player
Jameer Nelson- Starter
Martynas Andriuskevicius- Starter
Ivan Chriaev- role player
Sebastion Telfair- Starter
Devin Harris- Bust
Josh Childress- Bust
Kris Humphries- Bust
LaMarcus Aldrige- Role Player
Rafael Araujo-Bust
Hakim Warrick-Role Player
Sahsa Vujacic- Role Player
Marvin Williams- All-Star
Rashad McCants- Bust
Kirk Snyder-Role Player
Al Jefferson- Starter
Ha Sueng Jin- Role Player
Luke Jackson- Starter
Tony Allen- Bust
Victor Khryapa- Role Player
Anderson Varejao- Starter


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## OZZY (Jun 14, 2002)

What is everyone just drawing straws? Hey this guy is good because I read something, I say role player, I say journeyman... How can people predict the success of players in high school they have never seen play much less foreign prospects they have never seen play?


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## silverpaw1786 (Mar 11, 2004)

Jamal Tinsely/Eric Snow mix.

How could anyone be a mix of those two? theyre complete opposites. Tinsley turns the ball over way too much and Snow has quite possibly the best Assist to Turnover ratio in the NBA


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## Ballyhoo (May 30, 2003)

In the league at any given time there are 4-6 MVP-calibre players, 20-25 All-stars, 80-100 Starters. The rest of the starting jobs are taken by role-players who aren't good enough to hold onto the starting job long term (Shandon Anderson types). If we assume MVP-caliber players last 15 years, All-stars last 12 years, and Starters last 10 years this means an average draft will have:

0.3 MVP-calibers (one every 3 years)
2 All-stars
8-10 Starters

The rest will be role players or busts. Some numbers from recent drafts:

1996 (strong draft)
2 MVP-caliber
5 All-star 
7 Starter

2001 (weak draft)
0 MVP-caliber
2 All-star
8 Starter

So realistically anything more than 5 All-stars and 10 starters means 2004 will be one of the best drafts ever.


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## Casual (Jun 2, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>silverpaw1786</b>!
> Jamal Tinsely/Eric Snow mix.
> 
> How could anyone be a mix of those two? theyre complete opposites. Tinsley turns the ball over way too much and Snow has quite possibly the best Assist to Turnover ratio in the NBA


Tinsely's ball handling with Snow's control.


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## KG4MVP2 (Jul 28, 2003)

Dwight Howard- all-star
Emeka Okafur- Allstar
Josh Smith- Role Player
Shaun Livingston-role player
Luol Deng- role player
Adris Biedrins- Allstar
Andre Iguodala- allstar
Pavel Podkolzine- allstar
Ben Gordon- Role Player
Jameer Nelson- franchise player
Martynas Andriuskevicius-journey man
Ivan Chriaev- role player
Sebastion Telfair-Superstar
Devin Harris- Journeyman
Josh Childress- journey man
Kris Humphries- role player
LaMarcus Aldrige-Role Player
Rafael Araujo-allstar
Hakim Warrick-role player
Sahsa Vujacic-journeyman
Marvin Williams-journey man
Rashad McCants-Role player
Kirk Snyder-journey man
Al Jefferson-role player
Ha Sueng Jin-roll player
Luke Jackson-rolle player
Tony Allen-out of league after 2 seasons
Victor Khryapa-role player
Anderson Varejao-role player

theres mine:yes:


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