# Will there be an "upset" in the draft lottery?



## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

You think one of the "Big 3" (Atlanta, New Orleans, Charlotte) will get screwed by the balls and a lesser expected team will pull the first pick?

In 2002, Houston had an 8.9% chance and got #1. In 2000, NJ had a 4.4% chance and got #1.

Teams that could pull an upset: Utah, Portland, Toronto, Milwaukee.

http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html

P.S. If LA Lakers get a top 3 pick, this **** is rigged.


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## Diophantos (Nov 4, 2004)

Unless you think there is an NBA conspiracy to get the Lakers/Knicks/whoever a high pick, this thread is kind of meaningless. There's no way for us to reasonably "predict" an upset in the lottery. It's random chance.
I'm about to flip a coin. Will I get heads? Discuss.


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## ChrisWoj (May 17, 2005)

Well if you get tails it becomes quite obvious that a conspiracy backed by the US Government is influencing all of your decisions. You must stop flipping coins immediately and change your methods to something less obvious to the higher powers. If you do not do so immediately Shaq will cheat and play an extra regular season game. Steve Nash will immediately begin rebounding like Ben Wallace. And Ben Wallace will begin flipping insane passes like LeBron James. LeBron James? Well, he'll be looking up to Kevin Willis and begin to prepare his career for additional longevity by immediately cutting his minutes back to around 3-5 per game.

Thats right, all this is influenced by your coin flip.

I think you've rigged it you *******.


-Chris.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

HEADS!

And the Blazers will upset. I've been talking with Minstrel and we both feel the Blazers are ripe for a top 3 pick there.

Andrew Bogut, say hello to Sebastian Telfair.

Telfair/Bogut will be the best point guard/center combo since Penny/Shaq. Write it down.


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## Diophantos (Nov 4, 2004)

ChrisWoj said:


> Well if you get tails it becomes quite obvious that a conspiracy backed by the US Government is influencing all of your decisions. You must stop flipping coins immediately and change your methods to something less obvious to the higher powers. If you do not do so immediately Shaq will cheat and play an extra regular season game. Steve Nash will immediately begin rebounding like Ben Wallace. And Ben Wallace will begin flipping insane passes like LeBron James. LeBron James? Well, he'll be looking up to Kevin Willis and begin to prepare his career for additional longevity by immediately cutting his minutes back to around 3-5 per game.
> 
> Thats right, all this is influenced by your coin flip.
> 
> ...


Ah. I see. Thanks for the clarification.


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## Ron Mexico (Feb 14, 2004)

have the clippers ever won the lottery? they've been their so long(not taking a shot its a fact) that I think they'd win one sometime


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## Ron Mexico (Feb 14, 2004)

futuristxen said:


> HEADS!
> 
> 
> Gerald Green, say hello to Sebastian Telfair.


fixed it for you buddy


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## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

Magic are sending Pat Williams, it's impossible for them to not get the #1 overall pick with Williams representing them.


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

Diophantos said:


> Unless you think there is an NBA conspiracy to get the Lakers/Knicks/whoever a high pick, this thread is kind of meaningless. There's no way for us to reasonably "predict" an upset in the lottery. It's random chance.
> I'm about to flip a coin. Will I get heads? Discuss.


Yes I'm getting people to make random guesses so they can bump it later if they're right. That's what this forum is all about.


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## GNG (Aug 17, 2002)

Ron Mexico said:


> have the clippers ever won the lottery? they've been their so long(not taking a shot its a fact) that I think they'd win one sometime


Well, whenever they win, they just go ahead and pick Michael Olowokandi, so I can't feel too sorry for them.


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## GNG (Aug 17, 2002)

I'm going to predict Charlotte getting the top pick, with Atlanta and New Orleans following.

But if I had to predict a sleeper, I'll go with either Utah or Portland. Just a hunch.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Ron Mexico said:


> fixed it for you buddy


That's the worst case scenario for the Blazers. Not a bad worst case scenario. I unlike a few around here, like the future for the Blazers.


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## theBirdman (Jun 20, 2003)

Well the clippers chose olowokandi when they picked first, so it is better they dont get into top 3...

As long as NY or LA dont get into the first 3 I am happy. If they do I know there is somekind of a conspiracy going on...


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Diophantos said:


> Unless you think there is an NBA conspiracy to get the Lakers/Knicks/whoever a high pick, this thread is kind of meaningless.


You say that as if there were a chance that the Lakers _won't_ win the 2005 WWEBA draft lottery. :biggrin:


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

every year people say there is a conspiracy to get stars to New York and LA. But in the last 10 years can you site any examples of this happening?

I mean, the Knicks lost out on Lebron. Wasn't that the best chance for Stern to fix things for the Knicks?

If the Knicks and Lakers don't win it, will people stop with this conspiracy nonesense? Or will they say that the reason the Knicks and Lakers didn't win is because Stern didn't want it to look like a conspiracy?

Between the draft being fixed, refs being on the take...I can see why Stern seriously considered kicking Van Gundy out of the league. Why are basketball fans so ****ing paranoid about the NBA? Chill dudes. It is in Stern's best interest to preserve the integrity of the game. Believe that. And stop with the constant conspiracy theories. It only hurts the game.

Oh and why are people more likely to believe in sports conspiracies, but less likely to believe in government conspiracies?

Why do more people care about whether players take steroids than care about the war in iraq?


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## O2K (Nov 19, 2002)

futuristxen said:


> every year people say there is a conspiracy to get stars to New York and LA. But in the last 10 years can you site any examples of this happening?
> 
> I mean, the Knicks lost out on Lebron. Wasn't that the best chance for Stern to fix things for the Knicks?
> 
> ...



repped....

the fact that this steroids deal makes more headlines than whats happening within out government or in the eastern countries is distrubing...


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

O2K said:


> repped....
> 
> the fact that this steroids deal makes more headlines than whats happening within out government or in the eastern countries is distrubing...


If you think steroids get more news coverage than Iraq then you don't really read the news.


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## JNice (Jul 13, 2002)

futuristxen said:


> Between the draft being fixed, refs being on the take...I can see why Stern seriously considered kicking Van Gundy out of the league. Why are basketball fans so ****ing paranoid about the NBA? Chill dudes. It is in Stern's best interest to preserve the integrity of the game. Believe that. And stop with the constant conspiracy theories. It only hurts the game.
> 
> Oh and why are people more likely to believe in sports conspiracies, but less likely to believe in government conspiracies?


Agreed. People don't understand the risk reward involved in the NBA actually conspiring to do something like fix the draft order. If the NBA did so and the public found out, the NBA would stand to lose millions. I'd imagine it could have the same level of harmful effect on the league as the lockout did. Us nutsos on this site would still follow and support the NBA, but they would stand to lose hundreds of thousands of casual fans with a conspiracy such as that.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

sherwin said:


> If you think steroids get more news coverage than Iraq then you don't really read the news.


Everything gets more coverage than Iraq.

1. Michael Jackson
2. Kidnapping of the day
3. Steroids





8. Iraq


But that's not entirely the point. It's interesting that people will believe sports conspiracies, but not government conspiracies, where there is real power at stake. I think it maybe because Sports serves as an outlet for frustrations that would otherwise be aimed directly at the government. So I wonder what it says when there is an increase in distrust toward sports in general. What is that doing to society or saying about society as a whole?


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## Chris Bosh #4 (Feb 18, 2005)

The Knicks and the Raptors ended off the season with identicle records this year, and for the 7th overall pick the Raptors won a coin toss AGAINST THE Knicks. What was Stern doing then? I'm sure he would love The Knicks to get a higher pick.


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## CAnthony15 (Jun 14, 2003)

IMO, the draft lottery isnt rigged. I thought that if it was rigged, then in 2003, either NY or Toronto would have won it. NY obviosuly is one of the leagues premier teams from a marketing standpoint, and Toronto had Carter who is (was?) one of the leagues most atractive superstars, being hailed as the next Jordan, etc. etc. and the league wouldve wanted to have LeBron there with him. 

I think the lottery will go something like this

1. Atlanta
2. Miluwakee (somewhat of an upset)
3. Charlotte


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## DuMa (Dec 25, 2004)

I dont see a fix.

besides, lakers are sending jeannie buss to represent them. i thought sending women is bad luck


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

Damn! Huge upsets!

New Orleans and Charlotte not in the top 3. 

Portland / Milwaukee / Atlanta win

I say

1) Atlanta
2) Portlant
3) Milwaukee


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## ThaShark316 (May 7, 2004)

I say POR,ATL,MIL.


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## ThaShark316 (May 7, 2004)

Milwaukee wins!


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

Milwaukee with the #1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Atlanta's tanked season was wasted. Ping pong balls screwed them


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## thekid (Apr 3, 2003)

I'll guess ATL, MIL, POR


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## reHEATed (Jun 29, 2003)

Bucks.......


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## froggyvk (Sep 12, 2002)

Wow!


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## JNice (Jul 13, 2002)

..

The lottery is so rigged. The NBA wanted the Bucks to win. This is terrible.


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## Burn (Feb 2, 2003)

****ing god damn bull****


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## Brian34Cook (Mar 26, 2003)

JNice said:


> ..
> 
> The lottery is so rigged. The NBA wanted the Bucks to win. This is terrible.


Tell me about it :curse: :laugh:


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## thekid (Apr 3, 2003)

Too bad for Charlotte..


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

What would Atlanta do with the #2? They already have Josh Smith @ SF, Marvin Williams is a SF, I don't know if he will play SG.. maybe they trade down?


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## thekid (Apr 3, 2003)

Chris Paul


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

God, Milwaukee? That sucks. Charlotte probably gets more national attention than them. Everytime I see the Bucks roster I see players that I forgot even existed. 

They need new uniforms too.


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

Portland already got Telfair, what are they gonna do with Chris Paul?


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## Burn (Feb 2, 2003)

we only need a c or pg and we're not trading down...

maybe milwaukee will trade down? they already have gadzuric averaging nearly a double double in 20 minutes, what the hell they need bogut for?


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

Burn said:


> we only need a c or pg and we're not trading down...
> 
> maybe milwaukee will trade down? they already have gadzuric averaging nearly a double double in 20 minutes, what the hell they need bogut for?


His *** is going to the bench. Or he will leave (isnt he a FA?)


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

wow. Bogut and Ford?!


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## Burn (Feb 2, 2003)

esgojdsjgl;lksgd

I don't want to take Paul at #2


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## thekid (Apr 3, 2003)

sherwin said:


> Portland already got Telfair, what are they gonna do with Chris Paul?


You said Atlanta, not Portland buddy..


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## Sir Patchwork (Jan 12, 2005)

JNice said:


> Agreed. People don't understand the risk reward involved in the NBA actually conspiring to do something like fix the draft order. If the NBA did so and the public found out, the NBA would stand to lose millions. I'd imagine it could have the same level of harmful effect on the league as the lockout did. Us nutsos on this site would still follow and support the NBA, but they would stand to lose hundreds of thousands of casual fans with a conspiracy such as that.


Bingo. 

Central division gets stronger. Bucks will probably sign Redd, maybe get Ford back, and draft Bogut. Pacers will return with Artest and make a run. Pistons will be the Pistons. Bulls are young and should be a top 6 team in the east. LeBron's Cavs should get better too.


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## Jamel Irief (May 19, 2002)

Can someone move this to the proper forum?


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

I hope TJ Ford is able to play, and play well. Milwaukee has a lot of potential.


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## sherwin (Mar 21, 2005)

Jamel Irief said:


> Can someone move this to the proper forum?


NBA Draft forum is dead. Why are you bothered by this thread being on the screen in General? Just ignore it.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Sir Patchwork said:


> Bingo.
> 
> Central division gets stronger. Bucks will probably sign Redd, maybe get Ford back, and draft Bogut. Pacers will return with Artest and make a run. Pistons will be the Pistons. Bulls are young and should be a top 6 team in the east. LeBron's Cavs should get better too.


No crap. If the Bucks are healthy again, plus Bogut, that's better than the team that made the playoffs a year ago.

Central Division is going to be hell next year. The Cavs had over 40 wins and still didn't make the playoffs. Next year will be even harder.

Bulls may need to consider making a big time move for next year.


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## Jamel Irief (May 19, 2002)

sherwin said:


> NBA Draft forum is dead. Why are you bothered by this thread being on the screen in General? Just ignore it.


It's dead because people start threads that belong in there in this forum.


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## Interloper (Apr 14, 2004)

futuristxen said:


> No crap. If the Bucks are healthy again, plus Bogut, that's better than the team that made the playoffs a year ago.
> 
> Central Division is going to be hell next year. The Cavs had over 40 wins and still didn't make the playoffs. Next year will be even harder.
> 
> *Bulls may need to consider making a big time move for next year.*


Jesus Shuttlesworth anybody? What do you think?


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## PartisanRanger (Oct 24, 2004)

Interloper said:


> Jesus Shuttlesworth anybody? What do you think?


He's going to Big State, duh...


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Interloper said:


> Jesus Shuttlesworth anybody? What do you think?


I was thinking more like KG.

Someone get Sam Smith on the phone.


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## RP McMurphy (Jul 17, 2003)

Looks like the conspiracy theorists will be hiding in their caves for another year, but I'm sure they'll show up on lottery day next year *guaranteeing* that the Knicks will get the number one overall pick, because it's rigged, you know. 

When they showed the hopper on TV for a moment, my reaction was, I don't even think it would be possible to rig that thing.


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## Interloper (Apr 14, 2004)

RP McMurphy said:


> Looks like the conspiracy theorists will be hiding in their caves for another year, but I'm sure they'll show up on lottery day next year *guaranteeing* that the Knicks will get the number one overall pick, because it's rigged, you know.
> 
> When they showed the hopper on TV for a moment, my reaction was, I don't even think it would be possible to rig that thing.


Nah, Mark Pope or Brad Lohaus must of tipped somebody and had it rigged. It's blatently obvious.




> I was thinking more like KG.
> 
> Someone get Sam Smith on the phone.


He'll probably dig into his archives, edit an old "make a package for KG trade" substituting names and drop an article for you oh in about a day or so.


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## JuniorNoboa (Jan 27, 2003)

JNice said:


> Agreed. People don't understand the risk reward involved in the NBA actually conspiring to do something like fix the draft order. If the NBA did so and the public found out, the NBA would stand to lose millions. I'd imagine it could have the same level of harmful effect on the league as the lockout did. Us nutsos on this site would still follow and support the NBA, but they would stand to lose hundreds of thousands of casual fans with a conspiracy such as that.


As a CPA, given that our reputation has taken a bit of a beating, public accounting firms (who verify the results) have no reason to allow their firm's reputation to be further destroyed over this.

The fact that people ignorantly shout conspiracy. is insulting to me as a professional.


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## RP McMurphy (Jul 17, 2003)

The last three first overall picks have gone to Cleveland, Orlando, and Milwaukee, three of the smallest markets in the entire NBA. If this doesn't shut up those idiots once and for all, nothing will.


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

Knowing how badly the NBA hates the Blazers, for them to move up into the top 3 should be reason enough for the conspiracy theorists to shut up.


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## Jamel Irief (May 19, 2002)

mediocre man said:


> Knowing how badly the NBA hates the Blazers, for them to move up into the top 3 should be reason enough for the conspiracy theorists to shut up.


Weren't you on the Laker board saying Stern would give the Lakers a top 3 pick?


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

Jamel Irief said:


> Weren't you on the Laker board saying Stern would give the Lakers a top 3 pick?



Yes that was me. Thankfully I was wrong. I guess he'll have to help the Lakers through the refs like always.


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## Jamel Irief (May 19, 2002)

mediocre man said:


> Yes that was me. Thankfully I was wrong. I guess he'll have to help the Lakers through the refs like always.


I was hoping this was enough for you conspiracy theorists to shut up


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## Philip Trowse (May 24, 2005)

Well, there WAS an upset! I bet Bogut is happy he doesn't have to go play for the cellar dwellers!


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