# Whoa, I was WAY off...



## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

On what player were you most off on some past draft night? Name a guy you thought would be really good or great, but turned out average or worse. (Or vice versa.) Try not to use guys who died or got seriously injured--I'm talking about mistakes in evaluation.


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## Jizzy (Aug 24, 2005)

Spencer Hawes. i thought he'd be a white stiff but he's actually playing well for Sactown.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

Araujo. I was biased in that I saw him play UNLV many times. I mean the guy was 6'11, 280lbs with colossal strength, and had decent hands. I knew he wasn't a vertical player, but thought he had enough 'ground' game to be a rotation guy in the league. I was still shocked to see him picked at 8; I thought he would've gone somewhere 15-20. 

I didn't expect big things from him, but I didn't expect this to be his career highlight:

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## rocketeer (Oct 7, 2002)

Jizzy said:


> Spencer Hawes. i thought he'd be a white stiff but he's actually playing well for Sactown.


3.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 40% shooting in i think like 10 minutes a game. you're surprised he's playing that well?

he'll never be anything more than a backup center, so unless you thought he'd just immediately be out of the league, i doubt you're wrong about him yet.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

I don't think it's fair to say anything about Spencer Hawes at this point, considering he's only just begun his rookie season and has had injuries the past two years. But based on his skill set, I'd say he could certainly end up a starting center on the right NBA team. 

As for my choices, here are a pair:

Jared Jeffries. As a Minnesotan, I got a few chances to see him in college. Skinny, yes. Couldn't shoot well, true. And I never assumed, "NBA star-to-be!" But I did think he'd be a better NBA player than he has been. Even in that final season with Washington, it seemed he was starting to find his niche as that glue starter, sometimes reminding me of former Seattle and Indiana F Derrick McKey. He was a good defender at several positions, a nice passer, could grab some rebounds, but really just did things that don't always make stat sheets. Yet Jeffries always seemed like a guy who could get to that point, never a guy who was quite there. And then, well, New York Knickized him, I guess. I hope he can play well somewhere, sometime--he's still young enough.

On the other end of things:

Zach Randolph. In his single collegiate season, it was obvious that he was a very good post scorer. But with his relative lack of height and athleticism (in the vertical sense), it seemed he was as likely to fit into that mold of great college post players who never make much of an NBA impact unless they switch spots--a la Corliss Williamson. Instead, he's a dominant post scorer when put in the situation to be one, even over taller and more athletic guys.


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## Jizzy (Aug 24, 2005)

rocketeer said:


> 3.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 40% shooting in i think like 10 minutes a game. you're surprised he's playing that well?
> 
> he'll never be anything more than a backup center, so unless you thought he'd just immediately be out of the league, i doubt you're wrong about him yet.


nevermind, i thought he was playing well readn the kiings forum. he does indeed suck


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Not to make this a Spencer Hawes thread or anything, but seriously: you guys are ready to judge a player--_write off a 19-year-old's career_--after his first 16 games, when he is not just a rookie in the league, but coming off a surgery? You feel good saying he sucks?

This kid--and I mean literally, kid--is averaging about 14 ppg, 10 rpg and 1.2 bpg per 40 minutes. Yes, he's just shooting a little under 41% from the floor so far, but he's also shooting over 81% from the FT line, which shows he can shoot. No, he's not quick, but he does have decent footwork for someone his age, and his skills are pretty good on offense. In that way, he's a lot like the guy he's being brought in to replace eventually, Brad Miller, who has career averages of 11.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, and had a career year of about 14, 10 and 4 per game.

Another similarity: nobody thought Brad Miller was any good either, as he went undrafted and bounced around before somebody realized _you can't judge adolescents and young men as if they're finished products_, and Miller was actually quite useful on the court.

No disrespect to those posting, but the hyperbole around here is ridiculous. One would think the league was made of nothing but superstars and complete wastes of space.


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## rocketeer (Oct 7, 2002)

luther said:


> Not to make this a Spencer Hawes thread or anything, but seriously: you guys are ready to judge a player--_write off a 19-year-old's career_--after his first 16 games, when he is not just a rookie in the league, but coming off a surgery? You feel good saying he sucks?


i'm not saying he sucks. just at this point he's done nothing to change what i expect him to become/what he is right now.

i just thought he was an odd name for jizzy to bring up in this thread unless he thought the guy was going to be competing for rookie of the year(or was already going to have been cut) because he's done very little so far. he has plenty of time in his career to change that though.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Another pair of submissions from me of guys I expected something different from:

Reece Gaines and Jiri Welsch.

Gaines seemed to me to be a sure-thing contributor. Decent athleticism, nice shot, good passing for his size...I figured he could be a legit combo. In the NBA, though, he couldn't shoot the ball at all, and from what I understand (I didn't get a lot of chances to see him...and neither did anyone else who wasn't in practice) wasn't defending any position well. He didn't get assists, the steals, the rebounds...just nothing. I'm still not sure what happened. I'm glad to see he's doing well with a storied Euro franchise, Benetton Tamoil (Treviso (Italy), where he's shooting good percentages and averaging about 14 ppg, 3.5 rpg and 3.3 apg.

Jiri Welsch confuses me even more, in that he proved he was a legit NBA player. His one full season with Boston--his second overall--he was really a valuable player for them. No, his stats don't blow you away with 9.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg and 2.3 apg, but he played a really nice floor game at a few positions, hit some 3s and generally was just a nice rotation guy. Then, starting with the deal to Cleveland, then Milwaukee, he just disappeared. I figured he could be a guy with a 6-8 year NBA career, lifelong averages resembling those of his second season. Instead, dumped and back to Europe. (Where, with Unicaja, he's getting pretty much those aforementioned numbers.)


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

Couple more...

Luke Jackson. The guy's 6'7, 215, averaged 21/7/4.5 with excellent shooting percentages in his senior year, then shatters any unathletic preconceptions by scoring around a 40" vertical; looked excellent on paper. He obviously wasn't gonna be a shut-down defender, but I thought he had a lot of Brent Barry in him; not a bad thing at all. Even with the injuries, he's still been a major disappointment.

Kirk Snyder also. The guy has a great profile to be a stud SG - 6'6, 225, elite all-around athlete, good shooter, aggressive, good with the ball, solid defender. I saw some Mike Finley in him. His lack of success has been a surprise; has all the tools to succeed. If he can get his damn head straight, he can still be a solid player.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

I thought Qyntel Woods was going to be alright. Zarko Carbarkaba or whatever his name is was another one. He was showing some promise until some guy injured him on a flagrant that cost him the season. Maceij Lampe told everyone that he was going to be an all-star. I didn't believe that but at least I thought he would stay in the league as a somewhat mobile 7 footer with scoring ability.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

^ I'm with you on all three. Woods could still be in the league, but his off-court issues probably did him in. Teams tolerate more if you're a star, but if you're in that borderline range...not so much.

I liked both Cabarkapa (fouled by Fortson, btw) and Lampe. I think both needed the appropriate systems, and neither seemed to ever quite get into them. But Lampe did provide one of my favorite draft moments ever, coming out of the crowd in that white suit, fist in the air.


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

I'll go back to the 97 draft and say Ron Mercer and Keith Van Horn were not what i expected and Chauncey Billups who i thought was a bit of a tweener carved out a great career for himself.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

I'll go a year further back, and say that if you had said that more than 10 years after the 1996 draft, Malik Rose would still be in the league but Darnell Robinson would never have even made it, I'd have questioned your basketball sense. But sure enough, it happened. A 6-7, bulky center from Drexel outdid a 6-11, pretty athletic center from Arkansas.


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## Avalanche (Nov 17, 2005)

Dajuan Wagner


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## Wade County (Jun 22, 2003)

Amen on Wagner, and, im embarrased to admit - i thought Tskitisvilli was gonna be ok


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

I still think he is OK.


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## Wade County (Jun 22, 2003)

You mean he's still alive? News to me.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

For me there are two categories of guys I miss on:

1) Foreigners who I trust Chad Ford about way too much. Tskitishvili, Darko, Lampe, Pietrus are all guys I thought would be damn good.

2) Guys I screw up all on my own. Very rarely happens 

I thought Kris Humphries would thrive in the NBA, but I have a feeling he just doesn't work on his game enough, doesn't have the athleticism, and isn't tall or long enough to make up for being 6'9''

Joe Forte, but everyone thought he would be good.

I basically predicted Gooden and Boozer's careers switched around. Can't believe Boozer turned out to be the stud.

Hated Tayshaun out of college.

Loved Luke Jackson, because he seemed like a soft intangibles guy in college and then blew everyone away with his athleticism at the combine.

Thought Al Jefferson would suck, thought Jameer Nelson would suck, thought Nate Robinson would suck, thought Maxiell would suck, thought Francisco Garcia would be good, thought Monta Ellis and Louis Williams would be out of the league in a month.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Nimreitz said:


> For me there are two categories of guys I miss on:
> 
> 1) Foreigners who I trust Chad Ford about way too much. Tskitishvili, Darko, Lampe, Pietrus are all guys I thought would be damn good.
> ...
> I thought Kris Humphries would thrive in the NBA, but I have a feeling he just doesn't work on his game enough, doesn't have the athleticism, and isn't tall or long enough to make up for being 6'9''


On the former, I still think Darko and Pietrus will have very good careers. Skita, I don't know what the problem is--I've personally seen him show amazing ability. But for whatever reason, his coaches are unwilling to play him in the regular season. I do not understand the issue, but there must be one.

On the latter, as a Minnesotan, I can tell you the problem with Humphries. He's very, very, very selfish. Watch him any time he gets more than a few minutes: he'll score and he'll rebound. But coaches don't like him enough to play him consistent, significant minutes because he absolutely refuses to pass the ball. His assist totals are unbelievably low. And he's a bad defender. There was a series of quotes out of Utah before he was dealt to Toronto in which a reporter said to Humphries that he overheard coach Sloan tell him something about how he had to look for double-teams and pass out of them (or something) and Humphries basically answered, "yeah, coach always says things like that. you can't listen to all that." When he was at Minnesota with a pretty talented team, he was the same, coming in as a true freshman and becoming a 20-and-10 guy, but the worst 20-and-10 guy you've ever seen. He's like the PF version of Stephon Marbury, putting up numbers but alienating everyone in the process.


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## Geaux Tigers (Apr 26, 2004)

Stromile Swift - Really thought his athleticism would shine and he would be what Tyson Chandler is...sorta sad when Chandler is what you could be, when Tyson Chandler isnt even what he could be.

Dajuan Wagner - Hoopstv.com...nuff said.

Darko Micicic - At least I wasn't the only one bamboozled...

JR Smith - Not that he still cant right the ship...but he wont. Dude has enormous potential but hes got a screw loose. I really thought he would be the Hornets starting 2 guard for a long time. Him and CP3 would've been so nice.

Marvin Williams - He's putting the pieces together but I thought that he'd be there by now. I expected him to make Atlanta relevant in the East as a late playoff possibility.

But Im going to say I was very right on Brandon Bass, Danny Granger, Tayshaun Prince, Luol Deng, David West, Kirk Hinrich Josh Howard and Dwayne Wade. :biggrin:


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Brendan Haywood. I remember debating with people who would make the better pro, Boozer or Haywood. Had no idea Boozer would be *that* much better.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

How about Kevin Martin; who actually thought he had a decent chance at being a 25ppg guy, let alone a 20ppg guy? One of the best examples why Petrie is one of the best in the business; one of the top 5 active GMs with Buford, Thorn, Dumars, and Colangelo, IMO.


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## thatsnotgross (Dec 4, 2006)

I think some of you guys were too young to remember.. but for fans thats around my age 24 and up. 

I'm going to have to say Shawn Respert. I thought he was going to be what Ray Allen was.

Renaldo Balkman - no one knew who he was except for the students who went to his school.

Eddie Griffin - I'm a big east fan and I remember his one and only year. He took Seton Hall to the dance and he was the freshman everyone wanted. He was like Josh Boone in his first year, when scouts thought his potential was unlimited.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

RebelSun said:


> How about Kevin Martin; who actually thought he had a decent chance at being a 25ppg guy, let alone a 20ppg guy? One of the best examples why Petrie is one of the best in the business; one of the top 5 active GMs with Buford, Thorn, Dumars, and Colangelo, IMO.


I only saw him maybe one or two times in college, so I give myself a bye on that. I wasn't projecting him to be good or bad, just saying "oh, it's that Kevin Martin I've read about--I wonder what will happen." I try not to talk too much about guys I haven't, or have barely, seen.

I'll admit this, though. When I saw him as a rookie, I would never have predicted how much better he'd have gotten.


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## Matthew Maurer (Oct 17, 2002)

I'm embarrassed to admit that Darko was one that I called wrong I still wonder though if being with Larry Brown set his career back. He was just so confident in Serbia when I saw him. If I showed you guys footage of him then you would never know that it was the same guy I swear.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Matthew Maurer said:


> He was just so confident in Serbia when I saw him. If I showed you guys footage of him then you would never know that it was the same guy I swear.


From what I've see,, that's still true: he plays very well with the national team. Maybe his confidence just gets rattled easily, and he lets it affect his play. (fellow Serb M. Jaric is that way.)


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## Matthew Maurer (Oct 17, 2002)

luther said:


> From what I've see,, that's still true: he plays very well with the national team. Maybe his confidence just gets rattled easily, and he lets it affect his play. (fellow Serb M. Jaric is that way.)



That is very true about Jaric and Darko.


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

thatsnotgross said:


> I think some of you guys were too young to remember.. but for fans thats around my age 24 and up.
> 
> I'm going to have to say Shawn Respert. I thought he was going to be what Ray Allen was.
> 
> ...



Agree on both Respert, and Griffin. Didn't Respert have cancer or something like that?


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

bball2223 said:


> Agree on both Respert, and Griffin. Didn't Respert have cancer or something like that?


Respert did have cancer--in his abdomen (he says he found the first tumor below his bellybutton, "the size of a marble"). But I think that the problem was going to be that he was a 6-2 SG regardless. Especially at that time, coaches just weren't willing to go away from the positional stereotypes. I think he'd be given a better shot now, if he were just coming into the league. 

(I recall reading an article that Respert's cancer was in remission and he's working for the basketball dept. at Rice University. So we can at least be glad for him in that he's healthy.)


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

luther said:


> Respert did have cancer--in his abdomen (he says he found the first tumor below his bellybutton, "the size of a marble"). But I think that the problem was going to be that he was a 6-2 SG regardless. Especially at that time, coaches just weren't willing to go away from the positional stereotypes. I think he'd be given a better shot now, if he were just coming into the league.
> 
> (I recall reading an article that Respert's cancer was in remission and he's working for the basketball dept. at Rice University. So we can at least be glad for him in that he's healthy.)


agreed


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## Seanzie (Jun 9, 2003)

I argued vehemetly in favor of Dahntay Jones becoming a very good NBA starter. I thought his athleticism and defensive prowess, as well as Duke pedigree (as far as being a smart player), would allow him to become a more athletic, but less problematic version of Bonzi Wells. WRONG.

I thought Darko would've been a beautiful cross of something somewhere between Dirk and Joel Przybilla by now. Turns out, he's just the European version of Przybilla with no Dirk in him whatsoever.

I was VERY high on Pietrus. I saw him becoming a defensive maven, as well as a 20 PPG guy. He's been nothing more than a mediocre role player up to this point.

I liked Reece Gaines and Troy Bell. OOPS.


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## Coatesvillain (Jul 17, 2002)

I thought Michael Bradley was going to be good.


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## Coatesvillain (Jul 17, 2002)

RebelSun said:


> How about Kevin Martin; who actually thought he had a decent chance at being a 25ppg guy, let alone a 20ppg guy? One of the best examples why Petrie is one of the best in the business; one of the top 5 active GMs with Buford, Thorn, Dumars, and Colangelo, IMO.


As much as I'd hate to say it, HKF was hyping Kevin Martin up as a big time scorer on this level before that draft. I don't think anyone was taking him seriously.


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## NeoSamurai (Jan 16, 2003)

Big Country Bryant Reeves.

This was when the Raps were an expansion team and I saw him as the 2nd coming of slice bread. Then again, I was like 10 years old and I believe that Im better able to evaluate talent lol...


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

NeoSamurai said:


> Big Country Bryant Reeves.
> 
> This was when the Raps were an expansion team and I saw him as the 2nd coming of slice bread. Then again, I was like 10 years old and I believe that Im better able to evaluate talent lol...


LOL Big Country I thought he played for the Vancouver Grizzlies.


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## Geaux Tigers (Apr 26, 2004)

I thought Monta Ellis would suck...


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

yeah, I remember scouts compared Reece Gaines to Penny Hardaway. I was the biggest Penny fan back then so I was like, "Man I better take a good look at this guy." He was drafted by Orlando too. But damn, he didn't even touched the floor until he was out of the league.


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## Kaas (Apr 8, 2003)

Kwame, Skita, Darko, Pietrus (pretty good, but I thought he'd be a complete stud), Kris Humphries, Ndudi Ebi, Carlos Delfino. For those I didn't see being as good...Boozer, Wade (I thought he'd be an all-star, not a super star...although I don't know if that necessarily is too big of a deal), Bogut, Turkoglu (thought he'd forever remain a rotation guy).


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## alex (Jan 7, 2003)

Matthew Maurer said:


> I'm embarrassed to admit that Darko was one that I called wrong I still wonder though if being with Larry Brown set his career back. He was just so confident in Serbia when I saw him. If I showed you guys footage of him then you would never know that it was the same guy I swear.


Yeah, I remember for the 2003 Draft I ordered a draft guide from nbadraft.net, and ya guys said (not sure who) that you'd rather have him than Amare Stoudemire. Hmmm, well, ya can't always be right!


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## RapsFan (Feb 4, 2003)

I liked Marcus Fizer for his soft hands for catching the ball and his scoring touch. I also liked Donnell Harvey for his athleticism. There are more, but first two that came to mind of those who have not been mentioned yet.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Avalanche said:


> Dajuan Wagner


You know, I was 100% right about Wagner and still disappointed. Because despite the fact that he had "Chesty Morgan sized bust" tattooed to his forehead, the kid's got a lot of grit, even if he didn't have the talent. If Joe Forte had Wagner's heart he'd still be sitting at the end of an NBA bench rather than managing a 7-11 in Orange County (or whatever the **** he's doing these days). Don't get me started on the Forte rant, I threw a beer can at my TV when the selection was announced. Until JJ Redick came along, Forte was one of my least favourite college players ever. Former Providence PG Gary Chakoian told me his Forte tale, watching the draft in Raleigh, and having his buddy, who worked at UNC, turning to him and saying, "I'm really sorry man, better luck next year." Pardon me, I need to go hit something.

OK, mistakes, Eddie Griffin, I absolutely loved him at Seton Hall, and when Houston dealt their draft for him I figured it was worth the risk. Boy was I wrong. He did manage to be the GG Allin of the NBA, so that's something. I used to think that Antoine Walker would be pretty good watching him at Kentucky and even during his first couple of years in the NBA. But he never got particularly good at anything, and the Ricktator and OB turned him into the Celtics official ******* of all Trades. JR Smith, another high school kid I absolutely _loved_. I remember watching him hit those completely ridiculous jumpers during the McDonald's game. I thought he was going to be a solid pro. Sure he's young, and could still smarten up, but he's Gerald-Green-stupid. Speaking of which, as much as I loved the choice at the time, I really wish Danny had gone with his gut and taken Monta Ellis. Green is too stupid to make an impact in the NBA.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

It's funny you mention some of those players E.H., because Green and Smith are playing their ways out of the league. You worry about them though because they are world class stupid (although Green isn't nearly as stupid as Smith). Wouldn't surprise me if both guys were 3 years from now trying to play their way back into the NBA (from the D-League).


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

They could always sign with a good team in Europe if they want to.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

HKF said:


> It's funny you mention some of those players E.H., because Green and Smith are playing their ways out of the league. You worry about them though because they are world class stupid (although Green isn't nearly as stupid as Smith). Wouldn't surprise me if both guys were 3 years from now trying to play their way back into the NBA (from the D-League).


You know, ironically enough Kedrick Brown's doing that at this very moment. Like Dajuan Wagner, he's another guy that I started rooting for after the fact. Well, just this season for Brown when I found out that he'd finally got serious and was going to give it his best shot. I admire guys that really bust balls to eke out a living on NBA benches. As bad as Wagner and Brown were as selections, they're still good guys. Smith has a ton of talent, and Green has a ton of physical talent. They _should_ be able to play in the show. But they just don't have it upstairs. Speaking of mistakes, I thought that Jamaal Tinsley would be really good, as in a top 10 PG, and that Frank Williams would be a solid backup in the NBA.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

croco said:


> They could always sign with a good team in Europe if they want to.


IMO, they are both too stupid to last in FIBA. I mean that quite honestly.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

They might not be smart enough to be stars in Europe, but I think their length (compared to European standards) and athleticism would allow them to have some games where they can look really good. I don't expect either to be in the NBA much longer, both are at the point where patience of the coaches and teammates will run out.


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## NeoSamurai (Jan 16, 2003)

bball2223 said:


> LOL Big Country I thought he played for the Vancouver Grizzlies.


yea he got picked by the Grizz, just ahead of the Raps pick (who grabbed Damon Stoudamire)...i remember being pissed as a kid that we didnt get him...but i guess everything turned out well in the end...


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## bigbabyjesus (Mar 1, 2003)

Guys who haven't lived up to there potential who I thought were going to be GREAT:
Sebastian Telfair,
Gerald Green,
Joey Graham,
Jarrett Jack (at least he's still decent, but I truly thought he would be the best PG out of this class, wow was I off)

Guys who I thought would suck, but turned out great:
Chris Paul :|,
Monta Ellis,

Most notable guys who I was right about:
Rudy Gay,
Lamarcus Aldridge,
JJ Reddick sucking,
Shelden Williams sucking,


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

bigbabyjesus said:


> Most notable guys who I was right about:
> 
> JJ Reddick sucking,
> Shelden Williams sucking,


I wouldn't go so far as to say they suck. I think both will prove themselves legit role players before long. (Williams was taken way too high, but that's not his fault.)


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

Redick only gets like 2 PPG. Even though he doesn't get PT, his overall production sucks.

I was right about Shelden Williams. I thought he'd be like Nick Collison at best, and now he's not even half as good. The supposed most NBA ready player of that draft is a bonafide bust.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Your "bust" Shelden Williams averaged 5.5 ppg and 5.4 rpg in 18 mpg as a rookie. His numbers are down mostly because of the emergence of other players. He's a role player who is in a bad situation.

As for Redick, he's a rookie playing for a coach whose stated ambition is go get better defenders on the court. Obviously, that's not going to be him this year. But he's one of the best shooters in the NBA, and at 6-4 or 6-5, he's big enough and he's active enough off the ball that he's going to be able to get off his shot when the time comes. If Steve Kerr and Hubert Davis made livings in the NBA as good role players, there is no reasonable explanation as to why Redick won't. 

Patience...


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## jsm27 (Jan 9, 2003)

luther said:


> Your "bust" Shelden Williams averaged 5.5 ppg and 5.4 rpg in 18 mpg as a rookie. His numbers are down mostly because of the emergence of other players. He's a role player who is in a bad situation.
> 
> As for Redick, he's a rookie playing for a coach whose stated ambition is go get better defenders on the court. Obviously, that's not going to be him this year. But he's one of the best shooters in the NBA, and at 6-4 or 6-5, he's big enough and he's active enough off the ball that he's going to be able to get off his shot when the time comes. If Steve Kerr and Hubert Davis made livings in the NBA as good role players, there is no reasonable explanation as to why Redick won't.
> 
> Patience...


I think we can safely call Shelden a bust right now, considering he was supposed to make an impact sooner rather than later. There has to be a reason a team that could use some toughness off the bench does not play him. I never thought Shelden would be a star, but he should be playing on Atlanta. The Hawks should trade him for Kyle Lowry and give both guys a chance to shine (Lowry is not going to get that chance now in Memphis).


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

if Shelden Williams is not a bust, you will probably nobody consider one.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

It's true I don't like the word bust because it has negative connotations on the player, as opposed to the team making the pick. But to me a bust would have to be someone who woefully underperforms after having had ample opportunity to grow into a role in the NBA. And so for a first-, second- or even third-year player to be considered a bust is almost always wrong, in my opinion. (There is some leeway there, such as if a #1 overall pick is flat-out terrible and shows no desire to improve, for example.)

But I'd call guys like Chris Washburn a bust. Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Marcus Haislip, Eddie Griffin, Rodney White. Paul Grant, Johnny Taylor, Kirk Haston, etc. Guys who can't find a way to stay in the league--especially in those cases where it isn't a lack of talent keeping them out--are busts. Guys who were drafted higher than they rightfully should have been, but who do belong in the NBA, are not busts. A role player isn't a bust. And I'd be shocked if Shelden Williams isn't a career role player.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

I think the 'bust' label applies only to expectations. Shelden is a relative bust because he was taken 5th overall. Does that make him a poor player? No, but his NBA value is disproportionate to his draft position. He's not a Skita-level bust, but he's definitely a bust. Saying that he was a superior pick to Roy or Gay is blatant rationalization. People joked about ATL taking another wing at 5, but they would've been much smarter to do so, instead making the fatal mistake of drafting for need over value. Same thing happened with Araujo and the same will probably happen with Hibbert.


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## Coatesvillain (Jul 17, 2002)

ehmunro said:


> You know, ironically enough Kedrick Brown's doing that at this very moment. Like Dajuan Wagner, he's another guy that I started rooting for after the fact. Well, just this season for Brown when I found out that he'd finally got serious and was going to give it his best shot. I admire guys that really bust balls to eke out a living on NBA benches. As bad as Wagner and Brown were as selections, they're still good guys. Smith has a ton of talent, and Green has a ton of physical talent. They _should_ be able to play in the show. But they just don't have it upstairs. Speaking of mistakes, I thought that Jamaal Tinsley would be really good, as in a top 10 PG, and that Frank Williams would be a solid backup in the NBA.


Kedrick Brown would've never dropped out of the league if hadn't put on 50 lbs. I was happy the Sixers made the cap dump deal to get rid of Snow, and I thought Brown might show something but he was sloppy.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Won't happen with Hibbert because he actually has NBA skills. Shellhead is just a goon on this level. No real basketball skills.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

Shelden is a monumental bust. 5/5 for a 5th pick is awful. His 'bad situation' is created by his own lack of production- if he was 10/10, the Hawks would have taken another look at Mike Conley.

I've always compared Shelden to Nick Collison. They're solid man defenders, good positional rebounders, and both have post games that won't translate well into the league. Except Shelden is completely devoid of on-ball skills, and he doesn't have a jumper.

I expected Shelden to some in and get 7/7-10/10. Nope.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

God, I hate the sound of that. "Shelden is a monumental bust...5/5 for the 5th pick." One has nothing to do with the other. He doesn't produce based on where he was picked. Atlanta should be called the bust, not Shelden.

Maybe it's a minute point, but it just drives me nuts to see people generally criticize players because of where the player was drafted or because of what the people thought the player would be able to do. 5 and 5 doesn't make a player a bust, it makes him a role player. A team reaching to draft a player isn't the player's fault. It's the team's fault. The Hawks are a bust.


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## sov82 (Nov 5, 2003)

I agree, somewhat, with you Luther, however if you were to ask Shelden if he deserved to be picked #5, I can guarantee you he would say yes. Therefore, he is a bust.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

When you go in for a job interview, you say you're the best candidate for the job. It's a rare person who undersells himself.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

luther said:


> God, I hate the sound of that. "Shelden is a monumental bust...5/5 for the 5th pick." One has nothing to do with the other. He doesn't produce based on where he was picked. Atlanta should be called the bust, not Shelden.
> 
> Maybe it's a minute point, but it just drives me nuts to see people generally criticize players because of where the player was drafted or because of what the people thought the player would be able to do. 5 and 5 doesn't make a player a bust, it makes him a role player. A team reaching to draft a player isn't the player's fault. It's the team's fault. The Hawks are a bust.


Collison, Lee, and Haslem are role players. All are 8/8 to 10/10. 5/5 isn't a role player, 5/5 is just bad. Williams produces poorly, and that has nothing to do with the Hawks.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Five and five is a role player. And he did it as a rookie, not as a 30-year-old in his prime.

Regardless, this discussion is pretty much not going to go anywhere: we disagree. Let's drop it.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

5/5 is horrible by any standard. He was supposed to do better and he failed. Not all busts have to be out of the league.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

2nd reiteration (at least) that 5/5 is absolutely not "horrible by any standard," and 2nd attempt to end conversation with agreement to disagree.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

Oh yes, 5/5 is awful. A role player isn't a bad player. They're just players that don't excel at scoring, but make up for it in other facets of the game. Reboundng, defending, and understanding the offense/defense etc. The players I mentioned are good role players. Shelden is a bad role player.

5/5 isn't that much more than the spectacular Jason Collins. There are many, many more role players that I'd take over Williams. He's a bad player and undeserving of where he was drafted.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Keep arguing with yourself if you want. Say the same thing again, I don't care. We don't agree. 

By the way, let me know if you want a list of NBA players who have averaged approximately 5 and 5 (say, anywhere from 4-6 ppg and 4-6 rpg) in a season. Then tell me again that they are all "horrible by any standard."


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## RapsFan (Feb 4, 2003)

I just remembered one of my favourite college basketball players, Ed Cota. He looked like the real deal to me at UNC. Although I was really young then.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

RapsFan said:


> I just remembered one of my favourite college basketball players, Ed Cota. He looked like the real deal to me at UNC. Although I was really young then.


I loved him, too! I wasn't even so young...


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

luther said:


> Keep arguing with yourself if you want. Say the same thing again, I don't care. We don't agree.
> 
> By the way, let me know if you want a list of NBA players who have averaged approximately 5 and 5 (say, anywhere from 4-6 ppg and 4-6 rpg) in a season. Then tell me again that they are all "horrible by any standard."


Hit me.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

I agree with Chan and it's not just points and rebounds, but he is also shooting 36 percent from the field (in limited minutes, but still), doesn't block shots and his PER is 9 right now. That is not Jason Collins bad, but you are supposed to get better in your second year, not worse. He wasn't playing well enough for a a high pick then, now he is just terrible. He doesn't even seem to care much about it. 

If he doesn't improve in the next few years I'm not even sure if he will be in the league by 2010 or 2011.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Chan said:


> Hit me.


Let's be clear, I don't believe you can judge a player solely by stats, and I'm not promoting or insulting any of the below. But 5 points and 5 rebound, in my opinion, is a contribution, and thus role-player territory. You said it was "horrible by any standard." Not role player. That means the following players are "horrible by any standard," not role players. They cannot contribute in an NBA game, as they are horrible by any standard. 

I'm taking the liberty of not only going by the 5/5 ppg/rpg standard, but to include guards, 5/5 ppg /apg. I'm using ranges of 4-6 in any of two categories, but the two can't add up to 11 in total to keep me from "sneaking in" 6/6 players, whom you might consider role players instead of horrible by any standard. (I don't know your cutoff...)

It's also noteworthy that, on average, these guys were taken from somewhere in the range of 7th to 11th (in scoring) on each of their teams. This would mean that roughly the 3rd quartile of the NBA is horrible by any standard, and the bottom quartile, apparently, is even below that. Half the NBA is horrible by any standard or worse. Presumably, then, the only role players tend to be the worse couple starters and the 6th--maybe 7th--men off the bench. Oh, and while I didn't begin tracking it till the Clippers guys, I counted 200+ starts from among these horrible by any standard players. So there are likely over 300 starts among this group of players whom you'd call horrible by any standard (not role players).

None of these are youngsters with promise, or guys worth developing. None are veterans who can offer some steadying influence on a game, or a bigger contribution if called upon. They are all horrible by any standard.

Anthony Johnson
Zaza Pachulia
Acie Law
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
Derek Anderson
Jared Dudley
Jeff McInnis
Tyrus Thomas
Joakim Noah
Aaron Gray
JJ Barea
Eddie Jones
Devean George
DeSagana Diop
Eduardo Najera
Chucky Atkins
Rodney Stuckey
Aron Afflalo
Amir Johnson
Mickael Pietrus
CJ Watson
Chris Webber
Austin Croshere
Brandan Wright
Steve Francis
Aaron Brooks
Chuck Hayes
Dikembe Mutombo
Ike Diogu
Travis Diener
David Harrison
Quinton Ross
Dan Dickau
Brevin Knight
Chris Mihm
Jarvaris Crittenden
Chris Quinn
Alonzo Mourning
Dan Gadzuric
Corey Brewer
Gerald Green
Nenad Krstic
Marcus Williams
Rasual Butler
Melvin Ely
Julian Wright
Hilton Armstrong
Renaldo Balkman
Wilson Chandler
Jared Jeffries
Brian Cook
JJ Redick
Trevor Ariza
Adonal Foyle
Rodney Carney
Jason Smith
Gordan Giricek
Brian Skinner
Sergio Rodriguez
Quincy Douby
Dahntay Jones
Spencer Hawes
Shareef Abdur Rahim
Bruce Bowen
Matt Bonner
Fabricio Oberto
Ime Udoka
Jacque Vaughn
Ian Mahinmi
Francisco Elson
Robert Horry
Mickael Gelabale
Robert Swift
Juan Dixon
Rasho Nesterovic
Joey Graham
Jorge Garbajosa
CJ Miles
Jason Hart
Kyrylo Fesenko
Morris Almond
Darius Songaila


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Were any of those players picked in the top 5? Shelden is 24 years old. Is it bad for us to expect production from someone that old? What was the point of going to college for 4 years if you're still not really helping the team?


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

HKF said:


> Were any of those players picked in the top 5? Shelden is 24 years old. Is it bad for us to expect production from someone that old? What was the point of going to college for 4 years if you're still not really helping the team?


Yes, several were top 5 picks. Many more were first-rounders. I can't make this point enough: the "5 and 5 is horrible by any standard" means that about half the players in the NBA are "horrible by any standard." Do you understand how absurd that is?

No, it's not bad to expect the management of a team to draft someone who can produce if your team has a top 5 pick. But the team's management made a bad choice. The team is a bust. Williams' production shouldn't be based on where he was drafted, because he is the same person with the same talent regardless. Had he slipped on draft day because of [whatever] and been a second-rounder, his 5/5 rookie season would've been met with nothing but praise. Why? Because 5/5 is a contribution.

The level of value you get from a pick is the team's problem. The player just plays. The team decides who is worth that selection. 

The point of going to college for four years? Hopefully that's obvious, even for an elite-level college athlete: getting a world-class education, playing high-level division I sports, enjoying success, enjoying the college experience and still making a fortune right after.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

HKF said:


> Were any of those players picked in the top 5? Shelden is 24 years old. Is it bad for us to expect production from someone that old? What was the point of going to college for 4 years if you're still not really helping the team?


One other thing to be clear about: being a top 5 pick, 4-year college player and 24 are irrelevant to what I was proving to Chan. He said that a contribution of 5/5 is horrible by any standard. "By any standard" means forget about where the guy was picked, his background, etc. Horrible by any standard. So the discussion about value at that selection spot is irrelevant to my point above, which was purely that such numbers do not equal "horrible by any standard."


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

You made your point against the 5/5 thing. But if you look down the list, all of the notable players are good at something. Bowen, Ross, and Knight don't score well but excel at defense. Then you have your Balkman, Amir Johnson, Najera, Powe, Glen Davis type players that any team would want- they provide high energy off the bench. There's the 3 point specialists in Cook, Giricek and Eddie Jones. Then you have the injured out for season players, like Mourning and Garbajosa.

You take away all that, and what's left are a bunch of rookies with athleticism and potential (which Shelden is not), and those end of rotation players like Robert Swift and Rasho Nesterovic.

That's not good. Shelden is supposed to bring defense and rebounding to the table. He brings neither. Good role players excel at other facets of the game other than scoring. Shelden was drafted to be a role player, and he's not a good role player.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

I think five rebounds a game is something--on most teams, that would be third or fourth on the team. And as a rookie, Shelden did it in 18 mpg.

Anyway, glad to see I made a point! 

Obviously, as I hope was clear all along, I don't think that 5/5 is typically something to be thrilled with. If a guy is in his prime and that's all he brings, it's pretty weak, as there is often a youngster you can develop or a vet with some expertise who can bring it and more. But I had a point to make, DAMNIT!, and I was stopping at nothing to make it.


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## Najee (Apr 5, 2007)

On the disappointing side, I'll go back a bit and name Michigan's Rumeal Robinson, the 10th pick of the 1990 NBA draft:










Robinson was a powerful, athletic point guard in the mold of Baron Davis. I thought he was going to have a Davis-like career, but his biggest problem is that he was headstrong and wanted to be the show in Atlanta (on Dominique Wilkins' team, no less). I was definitely off on that one.

On the upswing, I was way off on Grant Hill:










I compared him to Kenny Walker because he had no outside shot and his game was predicated on getting to the rim. By his senior season, Hill started spending more time on the perimeter and handling the ball, and developed a great first step that helped make him nearly unstoppable (barring the hitch in his jumper) his first six seasons.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

luther said:


> I think five rebounds a game is something--on most teams, that would be third or fourth on the team. And as a rookie, Shelden did it in 18 mpg.
> 
> Anyway, glad to see I made a point!
> 
> Obviously, as I hope was clear all along, I don't think that 5/5 is typically something to be thrilled with. If a guy is in his prime and that's all he brings, it's pretty weak, as there is often a youngster you can develop or a vet with some expertise who can bring it and more. But I had a point to make, DAMNIT!, and I was stopping at nothing to make it.


Williams was supposed to come in and be ready right away though. 18 MPG is about as much as a role player should get anyway.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

No more Shelden Williams, please. I am tired of defending player I don't even like. But "supposed to"? Why? Because the Hawks made a bad choice. If I had been drafted 5th, I'd be supposed to produce right away. I couldn't, obviously. And so I'd be the bust. The problem is the Hawks in this scenario, not Williams. He's a role player. That's all he was ever going to be. That the Hawks reached for a role player is their mistake, not his.


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## Najee (Apr 5, 2007)

Chan said:


> I was right about Shelden Williams. I thought he'd be like Nick Collison at best, and now he's not even half as good. The supposed most NBA ready player of that draft is a bonafide bust.


I see this argument about Shelden Williams has been going on for some time, but I believe it usually takes three to five years to find out what kind of player someone is. At the very latest age, 27 years old. So in that regards, Williams has some time before the ultimate book is written on him.

But at the same time, I never expected Williams to be anything more than a role player. He looks incredibly rigid with very stiff movements and little apparent athleticism. It may have been acceptable for the Atlanta Hawks to take him with the No. 5 overall pick in 2006 if he was 6-foot-11 or 7-feet tall, but he doesn't even look his listed 6-9, IMO. He certainly wasn't going to be the shot-blocker he was at Duke because he doesn't have the bounce to get off the floor.

At this time, Williams' best chance of having a decent NBA career may be either becoming an enforcer/goon or transforming his body and game, a la Corliss Williamson. I have to agree with Luther on this one -- the mistake was Atlanta taking a player who didn't look like a promising prospect higher than where he really should have been chosen.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

^I never understood how a tremendous shot-blocker at the collegiate level can be completely nullified in this league.


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## Najee (Apr 5, 2007)

luther said:


> No more Shelden Williams, please. I am tired of defending player I don't even like. But "supposed to"? Why? Because the Hawks made a bad choice. If I had been drafted 5th, I'd be supposed to produce right away. I couldn't, obviously. And so I'd be the bust. The problem is the Hawks in this scenario, not Williams. He's a role player. That's all he was ever going to be. That the Hawks reached for a role player is their mistake, not his.


I agree. In order for a player to be considered a bust, that means he was generally expected to become a player of note in the NBA. Draft position is not totally and necessarily a barometer for success as a player (though it's generally assumed).



Chan said:


> ^I never understood how a tremendous shot-blocker at the collegiate level can be completely nullified in this league.


I'm not surprised, frankly. Shelden Williams doesn't have the height or athleticism to challenge players' shots. At Duke, Williams was simply larger than most players he faced and he had a long enough wingspan to alter shots.

Personally, I wonder if Williams would have been a better _NFL_ prospect than an NBA prospect. He has the frame of an offensive lineman, his wingspan would be valuable protecting most quarterbacks' blind side and he looks like he can add even more mass. He simply doesn't have a basketball player's build, IMO.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

True, I remember he was a scary presence on the court. I always thought his strength would make him decent. I'd like to see if he can stop sucking and be an intimidator.


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## Najee (Apr 5, 2007)

Chan said:


> True, I remember he was a scary presence on the court. I always thought his strength would make him decent. I'd like to see if he can stop sucking and be an intimidator.


Even at Duke, you can tell Shelden Williams was not going to be an effective NBA player. He's too bulky and rigid with very mechanical moves. I also don't believe he is 6-foot-9, seeing him on the court and live. 

Like I said, Williams may be better off going the Antonio Gates route and try out for an NFL team. He looks more like he has the tools to be an offensive lineman than an NBA player.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

Ol' 5 head can't be a bust because no one with any sense thought he would amount to anything more than a last guy in the rotation role player. He was picked way, way to early in the draft in another classic Billy Knight screw up.

The only way he is a bust is if he averages 1 & 1 in 15+ MPG. Otherwise, he is exceeding all reasonable expectations.


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## Wade County (Jun 22, 2003)

Who knows WHAT the Hawks were thinking with that one...what a terrible pick. And to think, Shelden Williams can be picked in the top 5 but Carlos Boozer slips to the 2nd round...amazing how this can happen...

I was wrong on Joey Graham, I thought hed be a Caron Butler type...but he just sucks...


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## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

I thought Qyntell Woods would be a very, very good player. 

And he could have too, if he didnt have the Basketball IQ of Brittney Spears on a binge and the blazing habit of Cheech at his finest.


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## Greg Ostertag! (May 1, 2003)

Have thoroughly enjoyed luther's series of posts in this thread. It almost seems like a race around here sometimes to label guys a bust in their first season, when quite often the truth doesn't appear for a number of years. Schadenfreude? Being able to stick around in the league and make a contribution, which has highly competitive, low entry/exit barriers is a pretty good achievement in most cases.

So obviously, by my definition, the likes of Skita, Rodney White, Reece Gaines etc are the busts around here.


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## Tragedy (Dec 9, 2002)

Right on

Darko and Lampe.

Wrong

I thought Hinrich would have been an absolute terrible BUST.


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## JuniorNoboa (Jan 27, 2003)

thatsnotgross said:


> I think some of you guys were too young to remember.. but for fans thats around my age 24 and up.
> 
> I'm going to have to say Shawn Respert. I thought he was going to be what Ray Allen was.
> 
> ...


I think you are seriously overrating what people thought of Boone as a freshment. Really, really overrating.


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## kflo (Jun 28, 2002)

Najee said:


> On the disappointing side, I'll go back a bit and name Michigan's Rumeal Robinson, the 10th pick of the 1990 NBA draft:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


i was wrong on rumeal as well. liked him, although his shot was always suspect. couldn't shoot like bdavis.

continuing in your way back machine:

i was wrong on









and 










both of whom were busts

was somewhat hopeful on this guy:










and this guy:










i thought would be a stud.

never thought boozer would be anything special.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

kflo said:


>


Hahahah, who's "Damon Stottlemyre"?


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## knickstorm (Jun 22, 2003)

kflo said:


> i was wrong on rumeal as well. liked him, although his shot was always suspect. couldn't shoot like bdavis.
> 
> continuing in your way back machine:
> 
> ...


abdul rauf would've been nastier for much longer if he didnt get hurt......and plus the abuse he took for national anthem flap was just ridiculous.


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## Geaux Tigers (Apr 26, 2004)

Chris Jackson was insane in college.


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## silverpaw1786 (Mar 11, 2004)

Thought they'd be better:

2000: DerMarr Johnson
2001: Eddie Griffin
2002: Dajuan Wagner
2003: Darko
2004: Emeka Okafor (I thought he'd be a franchise player)
2005: Rashad McCants
2006: Patrick O'Bryant
2007: Corey Brewer

Thought they'd be worse:

2000: DeShawn Stevenson
2001: Shane Battier
2002: Yao
2003: Dwyane Wade
2004: Al Jefferson
2005: Charlie Villanueva
2006: LaMarcus Aldridge
2007: Sean Williams


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Geaux Tigers said:


> Chris Jackson was insane in college.


One of the most amazing college players I've ever seen--no doubt. But he amounted to about what I thought he might in the pros. He had the ability to score points, but that wasn't what a lot of teams wanted out of a 6-1 skinny guard. Too bad, because if anyone had really set him free, he could have been like an Allen Iverson in some ways.


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