# Gasol Trade: for the record



## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

There was another post that claimed that us "homers" will agree with whatever Paxson does if he trades for Gasol. One way to combat our mindless knee-jerk support of our beloved Pax is to go on the record. We've all had enough time to think about this.

I'll start. All trades assume that P.J. Brown is part of the deal. Also, I'm assuming that the Grizz has no interest in Wallace. Understand that I think Gasol is an excellent young big that fits what the Bulls are doing very well. Also understand that, despite the projected quality of the upcoming draft, the Knicks' success has soured me on the pick...we're not going to get anything close to an NBA-ready big man out of that draft.

- Gordon + Deng has become a non-starter. Both have gotten too good. Besides, if Paxson was willing to do this, the deal would have already been done. Despite what some think, Paxson's not a total idiot.

- As far as Gasol is concerned, Gordon is off limits.

- Deng or Hinrich + the #1 pick (Knicks pick) is OK by me. I love Deng, but Nocioni/Khyrapa will suffice with Gasol at PF/C.

- Deng or Hinrich + Thomas or Sefolosha is OK by me.

- Nocioni + anyone but Gordon, Hinrich or Deng + the #1 pick is OK by me.

I realize that I haven't included all the possibilities. To get Gasol, I don't much care what we do with the Sweetneys, Griffins, etc. In general, I don't want anything else the Grizz has to offer, Miller included, but as long as the contract isn't too big, I suppose I could be had.

One last thing. If the Bulls don't get Gasol, I will be a homer and assume that the deal didn't get done because it couldn't be made within the above constraints. In other words, I will not second-guess Paxson for not making the deal. I'm sure other, more "honest" posters will second-guess the heck out of the failure to make the deal.


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

transplant said:


> - Nocioni + anyone but Gordon, Hinrich or Deng + the #1 pick is OK by me.


The identity of the pick depends on some things -- who the "anyone" is, and whether Cardinal is included in the trade (no pick, period; or no "anyone").


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

transplant said:


> One last thing. If the Bulls don't get Gasol, I will be a homer and assume that the deal didn't get done because it couldn't be made within the above constraints. In other words, I will not second-guess Paxson for not making the deal. I'm sure other, more "honest" posters will second-guess the heck out of the failure to make the deal.


First, I think throwing the honest word out there in quotes like that is rather unbecoming. As have been some of the pre-emptive snark from some of the people I do think are mindless homers lately. In the last couple of days, I've seen a couple of those guys (who generally add little to the board except crybabying about "the environment here") come out swinging. That is the sort of negativity (going either way) I get sick of real quick. It's the reason I basically avoided the board yesterday. And it's understandable (human nature) to see the people who were yesterday's targets of the initiated hostilities to be today's attackers. Understandable, but similarly unenjoyable to read.

You aren't really in either category as far as I'm concerned, but continuing those sorts of insunations, in my book, is counterproductive. I'd much prefer people stuck to basketball and left the subtext and crying about what each other think at home. We're all fans, so (and I'm not talking about you specifically) I really wish some folks would sack up and quit crying about what other people think. It's such a drag to read.

But hey, I'm idealistic that way.

Second, I agree with most of your post, but i think it's only fair that trading or not trading for Gasol be considered in light of what ends up happening with him. If he gets traded off somewhere else for a bag off peanuts, then I think it's perfectly fair to make your own judgement about whether the Bulls could and should have made a better offer.


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## fl_flash (Aug 19, 2002)

Interesting idea...

I'll go on record as such: If Gordon is included in the deal I don't think I'll like it no matter what goes out and comes back. It boils down to Gordon for Gasol and that's just plugging up one hole and creating another.

If Deng is in the deal, that'll be a hard one to take. We'd better be keeping all our picks (2007 and beyond).

If Nocioni is in the deal - that'd be alright. I'd be OK with a 2008 or later first rounder included. Not as OK if this years first is included.

If Thomas is in the deal - that's fine. I'd like to keep the 2007 pick in that case also but any future consideration would be fine.

I doubt that Hinrich would be included. Too much salary for the Grizz. So, I'm not going to really worry about that one.

If Pax can move PJ, Duhon and our 2007 first for Gasol - I'd be all over that.

Basically, I don't want Gordon traded. Not so crazy about Deng being traded. OK with Noch or Thomas being traded provided we keep the 2007 first. Most anybody else? Buh-bye.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

I guess I didn't actually answer the question 

Any trade involving Gordon is not OK.

Deng or Hinrich I can live with going. If one of them is going, at most I would add one of the following: Thabo, an 08 pick, or taking back Cardinal.

Anything involving Noc + the pick or Noc plus Thomas, I'd be quite happy about.


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> First, I think throwing the honest word out there in quotes like that is rather unbecoming.


That's fair. It just kind of ticks me off that some have equated criticism with honesty. That ain't right. Just as there are knee-jerk apologists, there are knee-jerk critics. Honesty has nothing to do with people's agendas. Still, I apologize.



> Second, I agree with most of your post, but i think it's only fair that trading or not trading for Gasol be considered in light of what ends up happening with him. If he gets traded off somewhere else for a bag off peanuts, then I think it's perfectly fair to make your own judgement about whether the Bulls could and should have made a better offer.


That's fair also. My point, as I'm sure you understand, is that a failure to acquire Gasol isn't necessarily a failure by Paxson. Like I said, I like Gasol a lot, but there are limits.

And thanks for taking the anger out of me...I needed that.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

This is a good idea, Transplant. 



> - Gordon + Deng has become a non-starter.


Agreed. That's lynch mob type of stuff.



> - As far as Gasol is concerned, Gordon is off limits.


MikeDC and Gordon's play are starting to convince me that this is correct. But I'm not 100% in that boat yet. It would depend on the other parts going out and coming in. 

For example, if its Gordon + nothing but expiring contracts, then I'm still inclined to support that trade. But much like looking at myself naked in the mirror, it would make me uncomfortable and nervous. 



> - Deng or Hinrich + the #1 pick (Knicks pick) is OK by me. I love Deng, but Nocioni/Khyrapa will suffice with Gasol at PF/C.


Agreed. 



> - Deng or Hinrich + Thomas or Sefolosha is OK by me.


Agreed.



> - Nocioni + anyone but Gordon, Hinrich or Deng + the #1 pick is OK by me.


If "anyone" is Tyrus Thomas, I might have some reservations. If we are risking dealing the Knicks pick (its less of a risk than I had hoped it would be, but its still a risk), then I'm not sure I want to give up our most physically gifted athlete to boot. I still think Tyrus Thomas has the capacity to be a unique game changer and I'd like to be able to slide Pau to the 5 with TT at the 4 as Wallace gets older. 

But other than that, I'm in general agreement with this. 



> One last thing. If the Bulls don't get Gasol, I will be a homer and assume that the deal didn't get done because it couldn't be made within the above constraints. In other words, I will not second-guess Paxson for not making the deal. I'm sure other, more "honest" posters will second-guess the heck out of the failure to make the deal.


Agreed.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

transplant said:


> That's fair. It just kind of ticks me off that some have equated criticism with honesty. That ain't right. Just as there are knee-jerk apologists, there are knee-jerk critics. Honesty has nothing to do with people's agendas. Still, I apologize.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sorry, I'm a preachy mood today. :sexy:

I agree too. I'll be hoping for the best in any trade, but I think we're pretty much in agreement about how much not to give up. It definitely won't be the end of my world if we don't get him, while I could see circumstances where we overpay that would seriously piss me off.


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## L.O.B (Jun 13, 2002)

After watching Durant last night, I don't want to give up our golden ticket to next year's draft.


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## charlietyra (Dec 1, 2002)

As some of you may have gathered I am not as enamored of Paxson as some others on this board. In my opinion, the only trade he has made that we clearly came out ahead was trading for the pick that landed us Deng. Time to go on the record on Gasol.

If the Bulls can land Gasol without giving up either Gordon, Deng or Hinrich I would have to tip my hat to Paxson. If he can get Gasol for PJ and TT only I would be thrilled. PJ, TT and a first rounder (other than this year's)would be OK too. I am also fine with dealing Noce and/or Fatboy. 

If the deal does not go through because West demanded one of our core players (Gordon, Deng, or Hinrich) as part of a package I would not hold this against Paxson, whatsoever.


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## King Joseus (May 26, 2003)

Any of the reasonable Deng + PJ + "Other" deals (ie. pick/hinrich) are fine by me.


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

charlietyra said:


> As some of you may have gathered I am not as enamored of Paxson as some others on this board.


Yeah, I picked up on that. I've been told I'm very perceptive.



> If the Bulls can land Gasol without giving up either Gordon, Deng or Hinrich I would have to tip my hat to Paxson. If he can get Gasol for PJ and TT only I would be thrilled. PJ, TT and a first rounder (other than this year's)would be OK too. I am also fine with dealing Noce and/or Fatboy.


If Paxson pulled off any of these trades, they should send his bust directly to Springfield, MA and West should immediately be fired. Sometimes we become too enamored with our own players.

I'm curious. What do you think of Gasol as a fit for what the Bulls need?


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

I am on record that the deal will be:

Deng, Thabo (or Duhon), PJ, NY pick for Gasol and (Cardinal, Swift, or Stoudamire)

With appropriate filler on each side.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

Personally, I'm pretty frustrated by the idea that Gordon is now untouchable for most people - he wasn't a week or two ago - but most are willing to part with Deng. Gordon has come on very strong lately and I dislike the idea of the team without him. However, I don't think it makes any sense to consider Gordon offlimits yet be willing to trade Deng along with other significant assets for Gasol. I have no problem with people considering Gordon to be moderately more valuable than Deng since he arguably takes over games more often, creates his own shot better, and does not have a replacement on the roster. I just don't see how Gordon can be untouchable but the NY pick or Tyrus can be included in a deal with Deng. Ben's edge number wise is not huge (19.5 to 18.6 PER, 21.5/2.8/3.6 vs. 17.8/6.8/2.2), Deng is younger and therefore theoretically has more room for growth, and as long as Ben is playing the two he's inferior to Deng defensively. It has been emphasized that Noc is available to easily step in for Deng and I think that's the best argument in favor of moving Lu before Ben, but it also strongly skews "win now" since a Gordon replacement could be obtained in the offseason with the midlevel or the NY pick and while I'm not expecting many complications Noc has not signed an extension yet.

All these deals obviously include Brown and any filler (Duhon, Sweetney, etc.):

- For a deal centered around Deng I would include Thabo or the '08 first rounder, and perhaps both but nothing more of value.

- For a deal centered around Gordon I would give up a bit less. I definitely wouldn't include both Thabo and the '08 and maybe not either.

- For a deal centered around Hinrich I'd pay more than for Deng. I'd include Noc and the '08 first rounder or the '07 first rounder if it can be protected (I know everyone's belief has been that it can't be but Sam Smith seems to have backed off that stance so unless that conlusion can be formed with other information it might be possible). I'd also consider including Tyrus as a third option.

- For a deal without any of the big three I'd be open to most any combination of the Bulls remaining assets with the exceptions that I don't think you can trade the NY pick if it can't be protected and I'd be very hesitant to package Tyrus and the NY pick together.


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## WhoDaBest23 (Apr 16, 2003)

fl_flash said:


> Interesting idea...
> 
> I'll go on record as such: If Gordon is included in the deal I don't think I'll like it no matter what goes out and comes back. It boils down to Gordon for Gasol and that's just plugging up one hole and creating another.
> 
> ...


Man that's exactly how I feel about this whole Gasol situation. Well except I wouldn't be too opposed to trading Deng, even though I agree it would be hard to take. Gordon is an untouchable to me. If he's gone in a trade for Gasol, I'd be devastated.


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

MemphisX said:


> I am on record that the deal will be:
> 
> Deng, Thabo (or Duhon), PJ, NY pick for Gasol and (Cardinal, Swift, or Stoudamire)
> 
> With appropriate filler on each side.


You and Jerry West wish. However, Jerry gave himself away with the Portand offer.

No Deng. Period.


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## theanimal23 (Mar 2, 2005)

MemphisX said:


> I am on record that the deal will be:
> 
> Deng, Thabo (or Duhon), PJ, NY pick for Gasol and (Cardinal, Swift, or Stoudamire)
> 
> With appropriate filler on each side.



Hear anything new in the Memphis papers or radio?


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## narek (Jul 29, 2005)

theanimal23 said:


> Hear anything new in the Memphis papers or radio?


While this isn't directed at me, Jerry West has put his house in Memphis up for sale according to a blog:

http://cmimemphis.com/grizblog/node/112


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## step (Sep 19, 2005)

> While this isn't directed at me, Jerry West has put his house in Memphis up for sale according to a blog:


Oh Jerry, make your last act as Memphis GM a charitable one!


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## truebluefan (May 27, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> I guess I didn't actually answer the question
> 
> Any trade involving Gordon is not OK.
> 
> ...


My take as well


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

I pretty much agree with Transplant in terms of where I draw the line. 

Starting an NBA franchise, I would order our guys: Gordon\Deng (tie), Hinrich, TT, Noch, NYKs pick, Thabo, Duhon with all else is filler.

Gordon is more valuable to us b/c we have better replacements for Deng than Gordon.

I'd like to think that Noch, TT, PJ and NYKs pick would do it, and that we could take Cardinal back and Reinsdorf would not lose his mind if we were in lux tax land for a year or two. That's a hell of an upgrade for us looking at value on the floor this year and would definitely beat any offer IMHO.

I suppose I would do Hinrich and Noch and Sweetney. Or Hinrich, PJ and Pick.

I would very reluctantly do Deng, PJ and NYK pick. They might have to throw in a future pick. West would have to convince me he had a viable offer that was almost as valuable.


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## Darius Miles Davis (Aug 2, 2002)

I'll trade any single player on the Bulls for Gasol. That includes Hinrich, Gordon, or Deng. Right now, of those three players, I believe Gordon is the one we'll suffer the most without, so if it has to be Gordon in a trade, I would prefer not to give up the 07 pick. I'd prefer to give up an 08 pick. 

Gordon, PJ, 08 pick for Gasol and fiiller is OK with me
Gordon, PJ, 07 pick for Gasol, eh, I would be somewhat grumpy
Deng, PJ, 07 pick for Gasol I can live with
Any deal with Noc, Thomas, Thabo, or Hinrich as the principle player along with the 07 pick I can live with.

I'd still love to see Gordon and Pau together.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

MemphisX said:


> I am on record that the deal will be:
> 
> Deng, Thabo (or Duhon), PJ, NY pick for Gasol and (Cardinal, Swift, or Stoudamire)
> 
> With appropriate filler on each side.


If Pax does that, someone might as well take him out and put a few bullets in his head. It's not like it'd hurt him, cause if he does something that dumb it's obvious his head is empty anyway. Deng and the pick is WAY too much for soft, grumpy old Gasol.


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## Darius Miles Davis (Aug 2, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> If Pax does that, someone might as well take him out and put a few bullets in his head. It's not like it'd hurt him, cause if he does something that dumb it's obvious his head is empty anyway. Deng and the pick is WAY too much for soft, grumpy old Gasol.


Old?


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

DaBabyBullz said:


> If Pax does that, someone might as well take him out and put a few bullets in his head. It's not like it'd hurt him, cause if he does something that dumb it's obvious his head is empty anyway. Deng and the pick is WAY too much for soft, grumpy old Gasol.


I'd do that trade.

Edit: Maybe not if it includes Thabo instead of Duhon. 

Fans get too worked up about overpaying. Who gives a crap if we overpay? 

The bottom line consideration is whether or not it makes the team better. This team is better with Gasol than it is with Deng and the Knicks pick. In my opinion. 

And thats all I care about. I don't give two craps about what it does for Memphis.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

My take on it:

Nocioni, Sweets/Duhon, PJ, '08 1st rounder would work.

Tyrus, Nocioni, Sweets/Duhon, PJ would work, though I'd prefer to keep Tyrus.

I wouldn't do anything with Gordon leaving, or Hinrich. Probably wouldn't trade Deng either.

I would NEVER do ANY combination of the '07 1st and any of Kirk, Lil Ben, Luol, Tyrus or Thabo. 

Ben Wallace for Gasol, hell yeah...where do I sign?!

In case you can't tell, I'd prefer we don't trade for Gasol unless we give up next to nothing other than cap relief...meaning guys like Noc/Sweets/Duhon.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

Darius Miles Davis said:


> Old?


You know how you call something "old" and don't mean it in an age context. Like Old Yeller the dog, from the movie of the same name if I remember right.


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## Darius Miles Davis (Aug 2, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> You know how you call something "old" and don't mean it in an age context. Like Old Yeller the dog, from the movie of the same name if I remember right.


OK. Just checking.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

Ron Cey said:


> I'd do that trade.
> 
> Edit: Maybe not if it includes Thabo instead of Duhon.
> 
> ...


I consider it vastly overpaying (I was considering Thabo too..it's more do-able if it's Duchump instead, just so we can get rid of his worthless butt). Deng and the Pick is over paying in my opinion. The pick alone might turn into a better player than Gasol. Deng himself might turn into a better player than Gasol as well. Deng's only 21 years old, and the draft pick would only be 19...vs almost 27. I'd all but guarantee that Deng is more productive in 6 years than Gasol is now.


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## T.Shock (Feb 11, 2003)

Like I've said before, we can't expect Gasol to come over here for nothing. That being said, I think it's Deng and the '08 pick or Nocioni and the '07 pick. West's choice. I'm guessing he chooses Deng and the '08 pick. The only way I'd do Deng and the '07 is if we gave up Duhon and got back somebody of value (Mike Miller)

So basically...

Deng/Duhon/'08 pick/PJ for Gasol/Stoudamire

Depending on how Stoudamire plays we could start...

PG-Stoudamire
SG-Hinrich
SF-Nocioni
PF-Gasol
C-Wallace

Our bench would be...

GUARDS/WINGS
Gordon
Thabo
Griffin

FORWARDS/CENTERS
Khryapa
Sweetney
Malik

And Tyrus playing all over the place. A kind of Raja Bell with the 76ers in '01 feel. Throw him in there. Let him block a couple of shots, grab a couple boards, throw down an alley-oop. I like this team a lot. Veteran leadership. A post scorer and a guard scorer. A crazy good 6th man. Decent backup big men. A couple of swingmen who do all the little things.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

> I consider it vastly overpaying (I was considering Thabo too..it's more do-able if it's Duchump instead, just so we can get rid of his worthless butt). Deng and the Pick is over paying in my opinion.


There is no such thing as overpaying if it makes the team better. I'd rather "overpay" and improve the team than pridefully refuse an overpayment only to end up with an inferior product. 



> The pick alone might turn into a better player than Gasol.


A bird in the hand, my friend. I remember the time when Bulls fans wouldn't part with Chandler or Curry in hypothetical Garnett trades because of what they hoped those guys would become. 



> Deng himself might turn into a better player than Gasol as well. Deng's only 21 years old, and the draft pick would only be 19...vs almost 27. I'd all but guarantee that Deng is more productive in 6 years than Gasol is now.


Completely irrelevent. All that matters is whether or not Gasol on the roster makes the Bulls better than Deng on the roster. Deng could become Kobe Bryant in Memphis for all I care. But if Gasol makes the Bulls better because of his particular skill set than Deng would have, then that is all that matters. 

In short, if you've got Steve Nash and Jason Kidd on your team with Steven Hunter as your power forward, you'd probably be better off trading one of those point guards for Emeka Okafor even though, in a vaccum, he isn't as good as either of them. 

Its *only* about the team. There is no other relevent consideration.


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## Frankensteiner (Dec 29, 2004)

I would not be in favor of any deal involving Deng, Hinrich, or Gordon. Although Gasol would be the best player in the trade, it's still a lateral move in many respects. There's no adequate backups to fill any of their spots.

I would be perfectly fine with any other combination of players and draft picks. Take Noc + TT + Sef + NYK pick + whatever, I don't care.


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## Frankensteiner (Dec 29, 2004)

Ron Cey said:


> Completely irrelevent. All that matters is whether or not Gasol on the roster makes the Bulls better than Deng on the roster. Deng could become Kobe Bryant in Memphis for all I care. But if Gasol makes the Bulls better because of his particular skill set than Deng would have, then that is all that matters.
> 
> In short, if you've got Steve Nash and Jason Kidd on your team with Steven Hunter as your power forward, you'd probably be better off trading one of those point guards for Emeka Okafor even though, in a vaccum, he isn't as good as either of them.
> 
> Its *only* about the team. There is no other relevent consideration.


I completely disagree. If Deng becomes a top 5 NBA player somewhere else, then that is absolutely a terrible managment decision. It's managment's responsibility to recognize such potential, and, if he indeed does have top 5 ability, it's their job to create a situation to develop that player.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

Frankensteiner said:


> I completely disagree. If Deng becomes a top 5 NBA player somewhere else, then that is absolutely a terrible managment decision. It's managment's responsibility to recognize such potential, and, if he indeed does have top 5 ability, it's their job to create a situation to develop that player.


If Deng becomes a top 5 player for another team, but he wouldn't make the Bulls a better team than Gasol would had he not been traded away, then who cares?


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

Frankensteiner said:


> I completely disagree. If Deng becomes a top 5 NBA player somewhere else, then that is absolutely a terrible managment decision. It's managment's responsibility to recognize such potential, and, if he indeed does have top 5 ability, it's their job to create a situation to develop that player.


Maybe it's an extreme example, and it didn't happen via a trade, but Dallas let go a future three-time MVP and without question it left them better poised to win an NBA title.


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## Darius Miles Davis (Aug 2, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> Maybe it's an extreme example, and it didn't happen via a trade, but Dallas let go a future three-time MVP and without question it left them better poised to win an NBA title.


Without question? Who would Nash have kept Dallas from acquiring? Jason Terry? Remind me, had they already drafted Devon Harris by the time they let Nash go? In any case, I don't see any without question here. I think it's definitely up for debate. Terry isn't even making that much less money than Nash. 

The real sticking point for Nash returning to Dallas was the 4/40 they offered vs. the 6/60 from Phoenix, I believe. The dollars weren't even different on a per year basis. Nash has performed so well for Phoenix that it would require a career ending injury pretty soon to evaluate that deal as a failure. I do admit that he is most likely a better player with Phoenix/D'Antoni/Suns personnel than he would have been with Dallas.


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## Frankensteiner (Dec 29, 2004)

Ron Cey said:


> If Deng becomes a top 5 player for another team, but he wouldn't make the Bulls a better team than Gasol would had he not been traded away, then who cares?


But Deng's not a top 5 player now, so how would you know whether or not the Bulls would be better until you actually let Deng develop into that player? Furthermore, I can't see any scenario where Gasol would help the Bulls more than a Kobe Bryant-type player (that is the example we're using). I mean, as long as the deals are equal, I'd much rather trade for Bryant than Gasol, even if Pau fills more of a need position.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

Darius Miles Davis said:


> Without question? Who would Nash have kept Dallas from acquiring? Jason Terry? Remind me, had they already drafted Devon Harris by the time they let Nash go? In any case, I don't see any without question here. I think it's definitely up for debate. Terry isn't even making that much less money than Nash.
> 
> The real sticking point for Nash returning to Dallas was the 4/40 they offered vs. the 6/60 from Phoenix, I believe. The dollars weren't even different on a per year basis. Nash has performed so well for Phoenix that it would require a career ending injury pretty soon to evaluate that deal as a failure. I do admit that he is most likely a better player with Phoenix/D'Antoni/Suns personnel than he would have been with Dallas.


You can't really argue that Dallas hasn't been more successful without Nash than with him, can you? And I think that right now, this season, Dallas has a far more realistic chance of winning a title than Phoenix does.

It boiled down to two things -- one, Cuban (correctly) reasoned that most guards Nash's age suffer a precipitous drop in production. Two, they'd gotten tired of banging their heads up against the wall playing jack-rabbit ball and wanted to transform themselves into more of a grind-it-out, half-court, playoff-oriented team. Nash didn't fit that style. 

Dallas is now actually one of the slowest playing teams in the league, Nowitzki has transformed himself into a guy who I think should get serious All-Defense recognition, and the Mavs have a much better chance of playing into June than they would have with #13 running the show.

I guess I shouldn't have used "without question," because there's always the possibility Nash could have adapted to that style as well. But the point remains that Dallas went a lot further without Nash than they did with him.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

Truth be told, I'm very on the fence about trading Deng for Gasol.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

Ron Cey said:


> There is no such thing as overpaying if it makes the team better. I'd rather "overpay" and improve the team than pridefully refuse an overpayment only to end up with an inferior product.


I disagree. Overpaying to me indicates that in the LONG RUN, you weaken yourself by giving up more than the guy is worth.




Ron Cey said:


> A bird in the hand, my friend. I remember the time when Bulls fans wouldn't part with Chandler or Curry in hypothetical Garnett trades because of what they hoped those guys would become.


There's a little difference here. We have a GOOD team now, and Gordon/Deng/Kirk are proven players, and near all-star caliber.



Ron Cey said:


> Completely irrelevent. All that matters is whether or not Gasol on the roster makes the Bulls better than Deng on the roster. Deng could become Kobe Bryant in Memphis for all I care. But if Gasol makes the Bulls better because of his particular skill set than Deng would have, then that is all that matters.


WRONG!!!! There is 100% relevance here. If Deng turns into the better player, that is all that matters. He's 5 years younger, so he will be able to play at a high lvl much longer, and his stats are already fairly comparable. If he develops into the superior player that I expect, that IS the main point here, and absolutely vital here. 



Ron Cey said:


> In short, if you've got Steve Nash and Jason Kidd on your team with Steven Hunter as your power forward, you'd probably be better off trading one of those point guards for Emeka Okafor even though, in a vaccum, he isn't as good as either of them.


Bad analogy. Those guys are both older, higher priced, AND you're trading them for a younger big guy who is cheaper. Those are ALL factors you must consider. I can see by your argument here you're a guy that wants instant gratification and would ignore the long term viability of the team in your win-now agenda. 



Ron Cey said:


> Its *only* about the team. There is no other relevent consideration.


And again, we come back to the win now vs win continually argument. Your whole argument is all about winning now, at the expense of 2 good young players, and a pick that will probably turn into a very good young player. All of this for 1 post player that is soft on D, injury prone, isn't a great rebounder given his size and status, and has a bad attitude (wants to be traded the first time his team really starts to flop after consecutive playoff appearances).


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> Truth be told, I'm very on the fence about trading Deng for Gasol.


This might help push you to the Gasol side:

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1158


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## ballerkingn (Nov 17, 2006)

lets face it gasol isn't coming and pax's is string all of us for a ride.He's going to keep the roster the same (even though it's clear we need some type of deal)just like he did last year and IMO had a good trading chip in TT contract that he just lefted and didn't use.Which to this day i never understud.All reports where that if TT didn't work out he was going to be re-traded because his deal was a expering contract,but no paxs the dummy messing things up by telling him to go home and I will pay u at home which just killed TT value IMO.Even if he was this bad inflouence u don't make that public and waste that contract.

I think we will see the same thing that happened last season happen this season at the deadline "nothing".


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

> I disagree. Overpaying to me indicates that in the LONG RUN, you weaken yourself by giving up more than the guy is worth.


Well, I agree with that. But Gasol is only 26 years old. I don't think he does weaken the Bulls in the long run. I think he cements us in with 6 years or so of legitimate title contention. 



> There's a little difference here. We have a GOOD team now, and Gordon/Deng/Kirk are proven players, and near all-star caliber.


I was talking about your reference to what the pick could become, not the players. 



> WRONG!!!! There is 100% relevance here. If Deng turns into the better player, that is all that matters.


Wow. How good Deng becomes as an individual player matters more than if the trade actually makes the Bulls a better, more well-rounded team? 

Sorry brother, I can't get behind that thinking at all. 



> He's 5 years younger, so he will be able to play at a high lvl much longer, and his stats are already fairly comparable. If he develops into the superior player that I expect, that IS the main point here, and absolutely vital here.


No it isn't. Its completely meaningless. All that matters is whether or not Nocioni/Gasol is a better forward tandem than Deng/Brown and whether the Bulls improve their chances to win the championship.

All this talk about Deng being a better small forward than Gasol is a power forward is mind boggling. The only thing that matters - the only thing - is whether or not the Bulls get better. 



> Bad analogy. Those guys are both older, higher priced, AND you're trading them for a younger big guy who is cheaper. Those are ALL factors you must consider. I can see by your argument here you're a guy that wants instant gratification and would ignore the long term viability of the team in your win-now agenda.


Well, I was trying to illustrate it by position, not age. Make them all 22 and 26 year-olds then. It doesn't change the theory. 

Its about team building, not player building. 



> And again, we come back to the win now vs win continually argument. *Your whole argument is all about winning now*, at the expense of 2 good young players, and a pick that will probably turn into a very good young player.


No it isn't. Gasol is the only option out there that combines win now and win later due to his age. 



> All of this for 1 post player that is soft on D, injury prone, isn't a great rebounder given his size and status, and has a bad attitude (wants to be traded the first time his team really starts to flop after consecutive playoff appearances).


Well, thats totally different. You just don't want the guy, which is fine. So the rest of the discussion means nothing. 

I was simply addressing this notion of "overpayment". If your team gets better, you didn't overpay if there was no other way to effect the trade.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> You can't really argue that Dallas hasn't been more successful without Nash than with him, can you? And I think that right now, this season, Dallas has a far more realistic chance of winning a title than Phoenix does.
> 
> It boiled down to two things -- one, Cuban (correctly) reasoned that most guards Nash's age suffer a precipitous drop in production. Two, they'd gotten tired of banging their heads up against the wall playing jack-rabbit ball and wanted to transform themselves into more of a grind-it-out, half-court, playoff-oriented team. Nash didn't fit that style.
> 
> ...


To approach that question differently, do you think Phoenix will fall apart in the playoffs this year now that they've got Amare healthy?


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> This might help push you to the Gasol side:
> 
> http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1158


yeah, I dunno. He looks pretty good. I think we'll actually get him for less if we get him though. Not a lot of other offers seem to be forthcoming for him.


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## Darius Miles Davis (Aug 2, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> To approach that question differently, do you think Phoenix will fall apart in the playoffs this year now that they've got Amare healthy?


This is OT, but I'm looking forward to the Western Conference playoffs with extreme anticipation. Dallas and Phoenix appear to be at their peak this year, even considering excellent years in their recent past. Veteran San Antonio remains dangerous.

I know D'Antoni plays his starters excessively in the regular season, but considering the lingering power of the Spurs, this would be a great year to get the top seed in the West.


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## TripleDouble (Jul 26, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> You can't really argue that Dallas hasn't been more successful without Nash than with him, can you?


There's no possible counterfactual for this arguement.


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

ballerkingn said:


> lets face it gasol isn't coming and pax's is string all of us for a ride.He's going to keep the roster the same (even though it's clear we need some type of deal)just like he did last year and IMO had a good trading chip in TT contract that he just lefted and didn't use.Which to this day i never understud.All reports where that if TT didn't work out he was going to be re-traded because his deal was a expering contract,but no paxs the dummy messing things up by telling him to go home and I will pay u at home which just killed TT value IMO.Even if he was this bad inflouence u don't make that public and waste that contract.
> 
> I think we will see the same thing that happened last season happen this season at the deadline "nothing".


Paxson & the entire association KNOWS what we need

Jerry West has pubically stated Pau Gasol is availible

I'm sure Paxson will do everything in his power to bring him to Chicago WITHOUT stripping us of all of our most important assets.

I'm still up for moving Deng, P.J. + filler (TT, NY Pick, Duhon, Thabo, Kirk, etc.).


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

Ron Cey said:


> Wow. How good Deng becomes as an individual player matters more than if the trade actually makes the Bulls a better, more well-rounded team?


A better player makes the team better. That's my point. It's all about the team, and having the best players. I am about 99.999% sure that we'd get a good post player in the upcoming draft. Nocioni is older, so long-term, Deng is a more viable solution, not to mention better anyway.



Ron Cey said:


> No it isn't. Its completely meaningless. All that matters is whether or not Nocioni/Gasol is a better forward tandem than Deng/Brown and whether the Bulls improve their chances to win the championship.


I see you're conveniently leaving out the fact that we're also giving up a guard that has shown vast potential, a pick that should be a high one in a loaded draft, not to mention a SF (Deng) and a post defender in Brown (though he isn't a loss at all long-term). 



Ron Cey said:


> All this talk about Deng being a better small forward than Gasol is a power forward is mind boggling. The only thing that matters - the only thing - is whether or not the Bulls get better.


And yet again, you ignore the fact that we might be getting rid of a better player, with a higher ceiling, along with other good players, just to get a little better in the paint at the present time.




Ron Cey said:


> No it isn't. Gasol is the only option out there that combines win now and win later due to his age.


There's not much doubt that if we can only give up Deng and other young guys, we're stronger in the present, BUT we'll still be way weaker in a few years due to it. We have no way to get good young talent back, and in 3 years when Wallace is gone, Gasol will be 30, Kirk will be 29, you get the point. Now if we didn't do it, and kept Thabo, Tyrus, our pick, Deng, in 3 years we'd have a bunch of guys that were in their mid to early 20s still. 




Ron Cey said:


> Well, thats totally different. You just don't want the guy, which is fine. So the rest of the discussion means nothing.


I don't want him unless he's cheap. Deng, Thabo, '07 #2 is NOT cheap at all. It's overpaying, and detrimental to the long-term success of the team.


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

DaBabyBullz said:


> I don't want him unless he's cheap. Deng, Thabo, '07 #2 is NOT cheap at all. It's overpaying, and detrimental to the long-term success of the team.


Don't really see how that's too much.

We all love Deng but he's a 3rd option at best on ANY team.

Thabo looks good depending on the team we're playing. He hasn't developed the way we thought he would for a guy that's played international ball for YEARS. 13th pick? He looks like a LATE 1st at best.

The NY pick is currently 9th? Outside of Hawes, Oden, Durant, Noah & Horford, who're all probably going top 6, who else is there to REALLY look forward to? The rest will be good complimentary players but I don't see anybody outside of that group IMMEDIATELY helping us become a better team, not Yi Jianlian, Tiago Splitter, Aaron Grey, Roy Hibbert, Josh McROberts, Tyler Hansborough or anybody else in the lower portion of that draft. And through it all, they make us YOUNGER, which is something else we truely don't need.

At the end of the day, we still have Tyrus Thomas, who IMO, would be a prize in this draft or the prior one.

Wallace, Gordon & Gasol is worth the price of admission.


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> And yet again, you ignore the fact that we might be getting rid of a better player, with a higher ceiling, along with other good players, just to get a little better in the paint at the present time.


This is just so, so wrong. No offense but you are destroying your reputation on this board with such statements. 

Gasol is a better player now and for the next 6 years. He's a better scorer by every measure; he has a higher FG%, averages more points in less minutes, and gets to the free throw line more. He draws double teams. Deng does not. Gasol has a greater defensive impact because he defends larger players and can block shots near the rim. Deng can not. Deng can't guard someone like Jermaine O'Neal. Deng can't deter guards from driving in and scoring. Gasol is also a better rebounder and passer. 

What does Deng do better, now or in the future?

Deng doesn't have a higher ceiling. He has skills, athleticism, and size similar to players like Antawn Jamison and Shareef Abdur Rahim. Deng is much better at working off the ball and playing defense, but he is otherwise limited in how much better he can be.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

The ROY said:


> Don't really see how that's too much.
> 
> We all love Deng but he's a 3rd option at best on ANY team.
> 
> ...


You forgot Brandon Wright. 6'10", athletic, I think he'll be great. Grey might fill the void we need too, maybe Splitter. Basically, if we're better at the SF/G as we would be if we kept Deng/Thabo, we could afford to not be quite as good at the PF, and pick up a good rook instead. I don't think that Tyrus would get ANY consideration for the top 2 picks in the coming draft, assuming Durant and Oden come out. I'd say he's more on par with the rest of the top 5-10, not #2 as he was last year (in essence #2).

If Gasol had better character, instead of demanding a trade the first time his team flops after consecutive playoff runs, not missed 60 games already in his short career, was a dominant rebounder or even an average defender it wouldn't be so bad. But he's more of a scorer, and that's all he's really "good" at.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> To approach that question differently, do you think Phoenix will fall apart in the playoffs this year now that they've got Amare healthy?


I know that Amare tore SA a new one in the playoffs, but I always viewed that as much of a wise tactical decision by Popovich than anything else, sort of what like Phil Jackson did with Shaq and Penny in the 1996 East Finals. 

I think that Phoenix has depth, height, and defensive issues that are masked because of their pace of play. Dallas and San Antonio, whom the Suns would almost certainly have to go through to get to the Finals, are expert half-court, playoff pace teams. I just don't see the Suns slogging it out and winning vs. both.


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

ScottMay said:


> I know that Amare tore SA a new one in the playoffs, but I always viewed that as much of a wise tactical decision by Popovich than anything else, sort of what like Phil Jackson did with Shaq and Penny in the 1996 East Finals.
> 
> I think that Phoenix has depth, height, and defensive issues that are masked because of their pace of play. Dallas and San Antonio, whom the Suns would almost certainly have to go through to get to the Finals, are expert half-court, playoff pace teams. I just don't see the Suns slogging it out and winning vs. both.


I agree with every word.


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## Darius Miles Davis (Aug 2, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> I know that Amare tore SA a new one in the playoffs, but I always viewed that as much of a wise tactical decision by Popovich than anything else, sort of what like Phil Jackson did with Shaq and Penny in the 1996 East Finals.
> 
> I think that Phoenix has depth, height, and defensive issues that are masked because of their pace of play. Dallas and San Antonio, whom the Suns would almost certainly have to go through to get to the Finals, are expert half-court, playoff pace teams. I just don't see the Suns slogging it out and winning vs. both.


Phoenix may well have to play only one of these teams.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> If Gasol had better character, instead of demanding a trade the first time his team flops after consecutive playoff runs, not missed 60 games already in his short career, was a dominant rebounder or even an average defender it wouldn't be so bad. But he's more of a scorer, and that's all he's really "good" at.


:Turkey in the Straw:


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## jnrjr79 (Apr 18, 2003)

I'm copying this from an another thread, so I'm on the record along with everyone else:

BG + Luol + pick = jnrjr79 leading angry mob with pitchforks and torches outside Paxson's house.
BG + Luol = jnrjr79 loses faith in Pax
BG + pick = jnrjr79 very upset with Pax
Luol + pick = jnrjr79 unsure
Luol = jnrjr79 pretty happy
Gasol acquired, BG + Luol retained = jnrjr79 ecstatic as all get-out

Basially, I wouldn't trade Gordon and I'd be hesitant on Luol. I'm fine with dealing the pick, but if it is with Luol as well I don't know how to feel on that one. If he pulled off a deal without shipping either of those guys out, I'd be thrilled.

So, anyway, for posterity, that's where I stand. Obviously all of those scenarios can include what we would generally refer to as "filler."


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

Darius Miles Davis said:


> Phoenix may well have to play only one of these teams.


I don't see Utah overtaking SA with Boozer out, and Houston with a healthy Yao might actually be the worst matchup for Phoenix out of all of them.

And I think Dallas has the easier schedule than Phoenix down the stretch and holds them off for the best record in the conference.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

rwj333 said:


> This is just so, so wrong. No offense but you are destroying your reputation on this board with such statements.
> 
> Gasol is a better player now and for the next 6 years. He's a better scorer by every measure; he has a higher FG%, averages more points in less minutes, and gets to the free throw line more. He draws double teams. Deng does not. Gasol has a greater defensive impact because he defends larger players and can block shots near the rim. Deng can not. Deng can't guard someone like Jermaine O'Neal. Deng can't deter guards from driving in and scoring. Gasol is also a better rebounder and passer.
> 
> ...


Go read what I said before in earlier posts. I didn't say that Deng was the better player, I said he had a higher ceiling AND in the end could verywell be a better player. Remember that Deng is only 21 and still improving every year, Gasol is in his prime at 26 and his #s have stabilized...like comparing apples & oranges. 

You can think what you want about my "rep". Maybe I'm just not that impressed with Gasol due to the entire package...him having a bad attitude asking to be traded counts for a lot in my book, soft with poor D, etc. Right now he's the better player and fills a need yes, but not worth giving up everything else we'd have to give up to get him. But you're also comparing a 21 year old who hasn't reached his full potential, to a 26 year old in his prime...that's my point. 

Player---MPG--FG%--3p%--FT%--OFF--DEF--RPG--APG--SPG--BPG--TO--PF---PPG 
Deng----36.2--.523-.333--.761---1.7---5.1---6.8---2.2--1.2--0.6--1.80--2.0--17.8
Gasol---33.0--.555-.333--.752---1.9---6.4---8.3---2.9--0.4--2.1--2.83--2.2--19.9 

So lets see here, we have a 21 year old who has 3% lower FG%, 1% higher FT%, 1.5 less rebounds but essentially same offensive boards, .7 less assists, .8 more steals, 1.5 less blocks, 1.03 less TOs, .2 less fouls, 2.1 less points. IF YOU CONSIDER THAT ONE IS ONLY 21 AND STILL IMPROVING, AND THE OTHER GUY IS 26 AND ALREADY PLATEAUD, THE #S ARE REALLY QUITE EVEN.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> I don't see Utah overtaking SA with Boozer out, and Houston with a healthy Yao might actually be the worst matchup for Phoenix out of all of them.
> 
> And I think Dallas has the easier schedule than Phoenix down the stretch and holds them off for the best record in the conference.


On the other hand, Phoenix looked pretty convincing tonight in an ugly, playoff-style wrassling match. But I don't know if they can do that in a seven game series.


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

I don't think he has a 'bad attitude' per say, but losing 4 seasons straight in the playoffs and getting swept will take it's toll on one of the best players in the NBA. He didn't say "GET ME OUT OF HERE, I REFUSE TO PLAY FOR MEMPHIS etc."..he already said that he loved Memphis and he didn't demand a trade..Obviously he wants to play for a contender though and his agent wants him in a bigger market.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

The ROY said:


> I don't think he has a 'bad attitude' per say, but losing 4 seasons straight in the playoffs and getting swept will take it's toll on one of the best players in the NBA. He didn't say "GET ME OUT OF HERE, I REFUSE TO PLAY FOR MEMPHIS etc."..he already said that he loved Memphis and he didn't demand a trade..Obviously he wants to play for a contender though and his agent wants him in a bigger market.


I know he's not a really really bad character guy, but he's hardly a stellar character guy either, like most of our guys are. With all the jibbyness that the Bulls seem to go after, a guy who (reportedly) slacks off and doesn't put forth max effort doesn't quite seem to fit does it? Especially when we're a defensive team, and he isn't exactly defensive. 

Plus, who's to say that we might have a down year...would he be wanting out too? We haven't done much in the playoffs in the last 8 years either, though we have at least won a game lol.


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## TripleDouble (Jul 26, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> Plus, who's to say that we might have a down year...would he be wanting out too? We haven't done much in the playoffs in the last 8 years either, though we have at least won a game lol.


The Bulls have so much more ready talent than the Grizzlies. There's really little chance of Memphis being good soon, but the Bulls are already somewhat good, and are young. What I'm getting at is that it is unlikely that the Bulls situation will look as bleak as the Grizzlies anytime soon.


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

DaBabyBullz said:


> I know he's not a really really bad character guy, but he's hardly a stellar character guy either, like most of our guys are. With all the jibbyness that the Bulls seem to go after, a guy who (reportedly) slacks off and doesn't put forth max effort doesn't quite seem to fit does it? Especially when we're a defensive team, and he isn't exactly defensive.
> 
> Plus, who's to say that we might have a down year...would he be wanting out too? We haven't done much in the playoffs in the last 8 years either, though we have at least won a game lol.


I dunno, when VC wasn't winning in Toronto, he wasn't putting forth his best effort either. But he also wasn't happy with management. It's still no excuse, but from a human perspective, it's understandable to SOME extent. Just like working a job you don't like or for a boss you don't respect.

What I see from Pau is, no matter how much effort he pours in, they still come up short. He has to be tired of that. What immediate help does he actually have in the near future besides their pick? Yeah, if they land Oden or Durant they could have a really good FUTURE, but to stars, younger players coming in, even young STAR players, isnt very appealing when you're aiming for a title. Similar situation with T-Mac in Orlando. He already wanted to leave but drafting Dwight over NBA ready Okafor really was the icing on the cake for him. Basically, Pau doesn't wanna be in a rebuilding situation and I don't blame him. He hasn't tasted winning in the NBA yet.

He averages 2.1 BPG so he's no slouch defensively but he isn't exactly Duncan or Malone either. I'm sure having someone like Ben Wallace may make up for some of his defensive short-comings


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> Go read what I said before in earlier posts. I didn't say that Deng was the better player, I said he had a higher ceiling AND in the end could verywell be a better player. Remember that Deng is only 21 and still improving every year, Gasol is in his prime at 26 and his #s have stabilized...like comparing apples & oranges.
> 
> You can think what you want about my "rep". Maybe I'm just not that impressed with Gasol due to the entire package...him having a bad attitude asking to be traded counts for a lot in my book, soft with poor D, etc. Right now he's the better player and fills a need yes, but not worth giving up everything else we'd have to give up to get him. But you're also comparing a 21 year old who hasn't reached his full potential, to a 26 year old in his prime...that's my point.


Elton Brand, Vince Carter, and Tracy McGrady all asked to be traded at one point as well. They are all fine players who help their team win. Gasol's attitude is irrelevant. 



> Player---MPG--FG%--3p%--FT%--OFF--DEF--RPG--APG--SPG--BPG--TO--PF---PPG
> Deng----36.2--.523-.333--.761---1.7---5.1---6.8---2.2--1.2--0.6--1.80--2.0--17.8
> Gasol---33.0--.555-.333--.752---1.9---6.4---8.3---2.9--0.4--2.1--2.83--2.2--19.9
> 
> So lets see here, we have a 21 year old who has 3% lower FG%, 1% higher FT%, 1.5 less rebounds but essentially same offensive boards, .7 less assists, .8 more steals, 1.5 less blocks, 1.03 less TOs, .2 less fouls, 2.1 less points. IF YOU CONSIDER THAT ONE IS ONLY 21 AND STILL IMPROVING, AND THE OTHER GUY IS 26 AND ALREADY PLATEAUD, THE #S ARE REALLY QUITE EVEN.


The numbers are not even close. Gasol scores more points more efficiently. His PER is 5 points higher. His rebound rate, the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds, is 15.3 while Deng's is 10.6. Gasol is a significant threat to block the opponent's shot (and alters more than that number), Deng is not. 

In sum: Gasol is a better, more efficient scorer, a better rebounder, and a better defender. 

--

The FG% is most misleading. Gasol puts up 20 points a game on great percentages as the 1st option on his team. Deng efficiently scores 18 ppg as a 3rd option. 

If Deng were the 1st option, he would average more points, but his FG% would be much lower as he can not create his own shot consistently. He would likely have to rely on deep, desperate jumpers. Were Deng to average 20+ points a game, like Gasol, it would be on a far worse percentage than the one he has currently. There is a reason why Deng only takes 14 shots a game despite having the best FG% on the team. 

Another, admittedly extreme, example: Dikembe Mutombo once averaged 12 points on 57% shooting. With a FG% like that, you would assume he should be taking 20 attempts a game, right? But the stats don't tell you that Mutombo can't score without being set up perfectly. You can't throw the ball to Dikemebe in the post and rely on him to score. Similarly, you can't give the ball to Deng on the wing and rely on him to score. 

However, you *can* give the ball to Gasol on the block and rely on him to score or pass out to an open teammate because he is being double or triple-teamed.

First options, even borderline ones like Gasol, are rare. 3rd options, even fantastic ones like Deng, are more common. Deng absolutely does not have a higher ceiling offensively or defensively, despite being 5 years younger.


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## theanimal23 (Mar 2, 2005)

rwj333 said:


> What does Deng do better, now or in the future?
> 
> Deng doesn't have a higher ceiling. He has skills, athleticism, and size similar to players like Antawn Jamison and Shareef Abdur Rahim. Deng is much better at working off the ball and playing defense, but he is otherwise limited in how much better he can be.



Word. Very word.

Deng, PJ, and 2008 pick should get it done.

If Deng is the cost for Gasol, it has to be done. It will not come any easier in the future to find a big man, who is still young. A SF can be found using the MLE (Mo Pete?) or the NYK pick (I would dream of Durant).


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## theanimal23 (Mar 2, 2005)

rwj333 said:


> What does Deng do better, now or in the future?
> 
> Deng doesn't have a higher ceiling. He has skills, athleticism, and size similar to players like Antawn Jamison and Shareef Abdur Rahim. Deng is much better at working off the ball and playing defense, but he is otherwise limited in how much better he can be.



Word. Very word.

Deng, PJ, and 2008 pick should get it done.

If Deng is the cost for Gasol, it has to be done. It will not come any easier in the future to find a big man, who is still young. A SF can be found using the MLE (Mo Pete?) or the NYK pick (I would dream of Durant).


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

theanimal23 said:


> Word. Very word.
> 
> Deng, PJ, and 2008 pick should get it done.
> 
> If Deng is the cost for Gasol, it has to be done. It will not come any easier in the future to find a big man, who is still young. A SF can be found using the MLE (Mo Pete?) or the NYK pick (I would dream of Durant).


That scenario wouldn't be that bad. The difference however, is that the scenario that got this all started, was Deng, Thabo, & '07 1st. BIG difference there. If we keep the '07 1st, we have a shot at replacing guys adequately. If we trade it, we shouldn't have an early pick anytime soon, so we're kinda screwed as far as trying to replace guys with elite prospects.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

rwj333 said:


> Elton Brand, Vince Carter, and Tracy McGrady all asked to be traded at one point as well. They are all fine players who help their team win. Gasol's attitude is irrelevant.


Still relevant to me. You never know how much effort he's going to put in...maybe he'll get complacent...someone else already stated that he just sees the NBA as a paycheck, and only cares about playing for Spain.



rwj333 said:


> The numbers are not even close. Gasol scores more points more efficiently. His PER is 5 points higher. His rebound rate, the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds, is 15.3 while Deng's is 10.6. Gasol is a significant threat to block the opponent's shot (and alters more than that number), Deng is not.
> 
> In sum: Gasol is a better, more efficient scorer, a better rebounder, and a better defender.


Lets not forget here, that Gasol, in this scenario, has to be good enough to replace the scoring, rebounding, defending, etc, of not only Deng (who is still getting better, Gasol isn't), but also Thabo, PJ, & a high 1st round pick in a loaded draft. This is also over the next 5 years or so. Who makes more sense? To me it's a no brainer in favor of Deng, Thabo, #1 pick over the long run. Depends on how short-sighted you wanna be...I prefer to look at these things in the long-term perspective.


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## theanimal23 (Mar 2, 2005)

DaBabyBullz said:


> That scenario wouldn't be that bad. The difference however, is that the scenario that got this all started, was Deng, Thabo, & '07 1st. BIG difference there. If we keep the '07 1st, we have a shot at replacing guys adequately. If we trade it, we shouldn't have an early pick anytime soon, so we're kinda screwed as far as trying to replace guys with elite prospects.


I totally agree. I am torn about getting Gasol for the hypothetical (I hope) deal you guys are discussing. I believe Deng, Thabo, and 07 first is A LOT to offer. That's 3 lottery picks. We would have a hole at two positions. 

Granted, you could say that we have only lost two players from the current team with one only having a key role. That's another way to look at it. But, for a guy who is on the trade block and the team is looking to cut money, I do not think we need to offer anything like that unless someone has an outrageous offer. Then it comes down to JR looking at his checkbook and finding the cheaper alternative in the long run.

I think Thabo is the eventual replacement for Duhon. Duhon will definitely leave here when his contract his up. If guys like Speedy Claxton can get relatively good deals, so can Duhon. I think Duhon has one more season (after this) on his deal, meaning Thabo would have two more on a rookie contract.

With losing the NYK pick, we would only have the MLE to improve the team. I don't know if we would go after any guys who would warrant the full MLE with Gordon and Noce probably getting extensions, meaning our starters would have a good amount of money tied up. 

It's 2:30am, and I don't know where I'm trying to go with this post, but just trying to say a few things.

I think Deng, PJ, and 2008 pick is a solid trade. It is a good bargain for Memphis compared to what you get for most 'disgruntled' stars. The key is the 2008 pick likely being a late 20s draft pick for us, and we would have 2 ways to improve this team for next year (MLE and NYK). I'm sure if we advance to the 2nd or 3rd round this year, more Vets will be inclined to join us for a lower price for their chance to grab a ring.


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> Lets not forget here, that Gasol, in this scenario, has to be good enough to replace the scoring, rebounding, defending, etc, of not only Deng (who is still getting better, Gasol isn't), but also Thabo, PJ, & a high 1st round pick in a loaded draft. This is also over the next 5 years or so. Who makes more sense? To me it's a no brainer in favor of Deng, Thabo, #1 pick over the long run. Depends on how short-sighted you wanna be...I prefer to look at these things in the long-term perspective.





DaBabyBullz a few minutes previous said:


> I didn't say that Deng was the better player, I said he had a *higher ceiling* AND in the end *could very well be a better player*. Remember that Deng is only 21 and still improving every year, Gasol is in his prime at 26 and his #s have stabilized...like comparing apples & oranges.


Should I assume you are conceding the argument, then? Your position is that Deng *alone* will be better than Gasol in a few years. He has a higher ceiling, right? That is my only disagreement. 

Like you, I probably wouldn't give up Deng + Thabo + the pick. From what I can gather, few here would do that trade.


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## theanimal23 (Mar 2, 2005)

rwj333 said:


> Should I assume you are conceding the argument, then? Your position is that Deng *alone* will be better than Gasol in a few years. He has a higher ceiling, right? That is my only disagreement.
> 
> Like you, I probably wouldn't give up Deng + Thabo + the pick. From what I can gather, few here would do that trade.


I'm sure if Pax considered a trade like this, he would go out and offer some more for KG. Deng, Tyrus, NYK pick, expirings in return for KG and their long contracts.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

rwj333 said:


> Should I assume you are conceding the argument, then? Your position is that Deng *alone* will be better than Gasol in a few years. He has a higher ceiling, right? That is my only disagreement.
> 
> Like you, I probably wouldn't give up Deng + Thabo + the pick. From what I can gather, few here would do that trade.


My main point is that right now, Gasol is the better player...I've stated that numerous times. I think that Deng has the potential, and if you look at the way his stats have went up by 2-3 points a year the trend is there as well, for him to be a better player than Gasol. I think it's definitely conceivable that he might end up being better, but at this point we don't know. Just go look at the trends of their stats. Gasol's haven't changed a whole lot since he's been in the NBA. Deng on the other hand, improves considerably every year. (While looking at those stats, take into consideration also, that Gasol as a rookie was pretty much the same age as Deng is now, so it's in proper perspective) To clarify, I'm not saying Deng WILL be better, I'm saying he MIGHT be better, as the statistical trend suggests. And yes, Deng alone, might be better eventually. For the sake of this argument however, Gasol has to be better than ALL of Deng, Thabo AND the rookie we get in the upcoming draft (who should be a good player). 

We aren't disagreeing as much as you think IMO. Except you value what Gasol does more than I do, just as I value what Deng does more than you do apparently. I'm also factoring in the other pieces of the trade, along with Deng's untapped potential, more in my decision I think.


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## SausageKingofChicago (Feb 14, 2005)

Deng, Duhon + our Knicks pick swap ( top 10 protected in 2007 ) and unconditional in 2008 - with PJ Brown thrown in to balance 

for 

Pau Gasol and Brian Cardinal

BULLS

*

Wallace
Gasol
Nocioni
Gordon
Hinrich

bench

2007 Lottery pick ( assuming top 10 )
Cardinal
Thomas
Griffin
Sefolosha

Allen
Vet point guard free agency signing 

TT and Thabo have to step up and be our consistent bench production


*

GRIZZ

*

2007 Lotttery Pick 
Swift
Deng
Gay
Duhon

bench
Best Vet Free Agent Big available
Johnson
Warrick
Miller
D.Jones
Stoudamire
Lowry

*


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## SausageKingofChicago (Feb 14, 2005)

While we're on the record ...Phoenix will win the West this year


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## TripleDouble (Jul 26, 2002)

Knicks swap cannot be protected.


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

DaBabyBullz said:


> My main point is that right now, Gasol is the better player...I've stated that numerous times. I think that Deng has the potential, and if you look at the way his stats have went up by 2-3 points a year the trend is there as well, for him to be a better player than Gasol. I think it's definitely conceivable that he might end up being better, but at this point we don't know. Just go look at the trends of their stats. Gasol's haven't changed a whole lot since he's been in the NBA. Deng on the other hand, improves considerably every year. (While looking at those stats, take into consideration also, that Gasol as a rookie was pretty much the same age as Deng is now, so it's in proper perspective) To clarify, I'm not saying Deng WILL be better, I'm saying he MIGHT be better, as the statistical trend suggests. And yes, Deng alone, might be better eventually. For the sake of this argument however, Gasol has to be better than ALL of Deng, Thabo AND the rookie we get in the upcoming draft (who should be a good player).
> 
> We aren't disagreeing as much as you think IMO. Except you value what Gasol does more than I do, just as I value what Deng does more than you do apparently. I'm also factoring in the other pieces of the trade, along with Deng's untapped potential, more in my decision I think.


Well, I discount the possibility that Deng will be better and/or more valuable than Gasol. That will never be true. I think our appraisals of Deng and Gasol are drastically different. But fine. 

For the record, this isn't a case of overrating offense. On a team with Dirk Nowitzki, a true first option, I would rather have Josh Howard than, say, Carmelo Anthony. Howard has a larger impact on the game than Anthony because of his defense, rebounding, and more efficient offense. 

But Anthony is a more valuable player than Howard because he lets players like Howard play a smaller role and become more efficient on offense. 

This is probably obvious to many of you, but I wanted to mention it anyway since I didn't always feel this way. It's another reason (beyond the scarcity of PF/Cs, the need for a tall 4, or the need for post scoring) why Gasol is a fantastic player well worth multiple assets not named Nocioni or Duhon.


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

So in summary you guys want Gasol....for nothing.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

I spose I could be wrong, but the Suns look to me to have significantly improved their defense. The improvement is somewhat masked by their fast pace, but it's evident to me that it's light years above where it was the last couple of years.

Their defensive ratings (try Knickerblogger's 4 factors) are a lot closer to the Mavs than they are to the real run and gun style teams out there (the Warriors, Wizards, etc).

Notably they're 10th and 12 in defensive efficiency and eFG, _while_ playing at their fast pace. Interestingly, the Bulls are the only team above them in those factors that plays at a similar pace. The Nuggets are just below them and in about the same range. 

So I don't know that they're the best defensive team ever, but they seem to have gone from not caring to at least playing pretty respectable defense.


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

MemphisX said:


> So in summary you guys want Gasol....for nothing.


I'm not sure what this is in reference to, but West already tipped his hand by supposedly offering Gasol for Aldridge + Rodriguez. Also, Rod Thorn said something to the effect of "All they want is expiring contracts, a draft pick, and maybe a young player or two." Why should the Bulls overpay when Memphis is willing to give him away?

edit:


> "What they're looking for is a good young talent or two with small contracts, plus someone with an expiring contract" to make the salaries match, he explained. "That's really about it."


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

> Word is the Nets, Bulls, Miami and the Celtics want you. Which team do you think is a better fit for you? Pau Gasol: The media named those teams, but there are more teams interested, including a team in the Western Conference. Myself and that team, we want to keep it on the low. El Periodico
> 
> Gasol: "If they trade me, I wish I go to a good team". El Periodico
> 
> ...


 -- Hoopshype

Sounds like he's excited more about that westcoast team than any other name mentioned.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

The ROY said:


> -- Hoopshype
> 
> Sounds like he's excited more about that westcoast team than any other name mentioned.


See, I don't get that.

Maybe I'm looking at this through rose-colored glasses, but wouldn't the Bulls with Gasol, Wallace, Gordon, Hinrich, Nocioni, Duhon, Sefolosha, and whoever else is left be a *prohibitive* favorite to win the East for the next 2-3 years or more? 

If I were Pau, I'd want to get my arse out of the West. Although I could see him wanting to play for the Lakers.


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

MemphisX said:


> So in summary you guys want Gasol....for nothing.


Trade Checker says this won't work. Damn!

I do understand your point though.


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## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> I spose I could be wrong, but the Suns look to me to have significantly improved their defense. The improvement is somewhat masked by their fast pace, but it's evident to me that it's light years above where it was the last couple of years.
> 
> Their defensive ratings (try Knickerblogger's 4 factors) are a lot closer to the Mavs than they are to the real run and gun style teams out there (the Warriors, Wizards, etc).
> 
> ...


I realize this. They've made defense a big point of emphasis this year, and it is definitely paying off.

But I've always felt that their offense and their pace was a huge component of their defense. It's palpable when they play a team that doesn't have a solid offensive game plan or otherwise doesn't execute well -- you can see teams rushing shots and making bad decisions because they're so cognizant of having the ball run down their throat in the other direction.

I think with the slower playoff pace, teams will be more disciplined in their offensive approach vs. Phoenix and exploit some of the mismatches and Phoenix's size. 

Don't get me wrong -- I respect the hell out of the Suns. They get the most of their players and their system. I just think there are a couple of teams out West that are better put together for play in May and June.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I would not trade any of the following people or combinations for Gasol:

Hinrich
Gordon
Tyrus + Knick pick
Deng + Knick pick
Deng + Tyrus

I obviously don't think Hinrich or Gordon are more valuable than Gasol. However, Memphis can't provide us with a player to replace them (Mighty Mouse or Dahntay is all I would expect them to want to give up). With all the Duhon hating going on, I'm surprised to see so many people willing to include Hinrich in a deal. Now if we get a third team involved, I'd be much more willing to trade one of Hinrich or Gordon.

We will need a Ben Wallace replacement and the two most obvious choices to fill this role are Tyrus Thomas or the Knick pick. This is why I don't think we could include both in any deal.

When Gasol was announced as available, I said that Deng and the Knick pick would be the most I would trade for him. It seems that Gasol has demanded a trade privately (if I had to guess), else I don't know why West would be shopping him to Boston or Portland (teams that will also have a high draft pick this year). If this is the case, Deng + the Knick pick is overpaying. If not, not so much. It will be interesting to see which side caves, and I feel that Paxson has most of the leverage if he waits it out to the deadline.

I think Gasol would be a solid acquisition, but I don't want to overpay for the guy. I am of the opinion we don't _NEED_ him, but the Bulls have been following my expectations of them this season. Now if we can get him for none of Kirk, Ben, or Deng, then I think he definately increases our playoff chances (obviously not a profound statement). I think this is the line of thinking Paxson is taking as well.

What I haven't been able to gauge is what players West is after. They need guard help and want someone that will increase attendance. Gordon is the only guy that fits that bill, but I don't want to give him up for aforementioned reasons. Thabo would be the next logical choice for both parties to me. Tyrus could be a guy that could put fans in the seats. Even as a rookie, he makes a lot of exciting plays that have fans drooling with his potential. However, I don't know if he's a West guy or if West wants more lottery balls in the draft over a guy like Tyrus. Likely deals I see are as follows:

Noc + Thabo + 07 pick
Deng + Thabo + 08 pick
Noc + Tyrus + Duhon + 08 pick
Tyrus + Thabo + 08 pick

In any deal involving Thabo, I definately think we should get Dahntay Jones back. I'm not opposed to taking Cardinal back in most deals, especially if we are trading away Nocioni. His deal expires the same year as Wallace, which will be the next year to possibly do anything major barring a trade.

EDIT: I am also willing to give up Duhon instead of Thabo in any of the proposed deals. My thinking in the proposed deals was Thabo had more value, but it's possible West would want Duhon instead and we'd have to give a little extra.

Not being able to protect the 07 pick is going to put a serious damper on trade possibilities. Even though the chances are small, Paxson and fans could be kicking themselves for years. It's not like a bet with a 95% chance of winning. It's more like a bet with a 5% chance to completely reface the franchise. That's hard to give up, especially when you are already a playoff team and normally don't have a shot at these types of players.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder, I think that's the best summary and line of thinking I've seen so far. I agree with most all of it, except possibly that I'd give up Hinrich.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Not being able to protect the 07 pick is going to put a serious damper on trade possibilities.


Why is this the case? I have seen it a zillion times on the boards, but zero in terms of where this nugget surfaced.


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## TomBoerwinkle#1 (Jul 31, 2002)

I'm not going to go on record so that I can maintain flexibility to mindlessly root the "homer" position, however it may turn out.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> Rhyder, I think that's the best summary and line of thinking I've seen so far. I agree with most all of it, except possibly that I'd give up Hinrich.


Thanks. I've pretty much stayed consistent all along, but this seemed like a good place to summarize all of my thoughts.



johnston797 said:


> Why is this the case? I have seen it a zillion times on the boards, but zero in terms of where this nugget surfaced.


I believe it was Sham that posted it. I don't remember the exact article or thread, so it will be hard to link it.

But basically, we had an agreement with the Knicks for an unprotected swap linked to our pick and theirs. We cannot go and amend that agreement on our own just because we are trading our own pick away. I believe the reason behind it is that we don't own the asset (the pick), just the swap option.

Hope I did not confuse you more with that explanation. I've just sort of just accepted it as truth, and didn't figure out all the CBA implications for myself.


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## CocaineisaHelluvaDrug (Aug 24, 2006)

well i spose those nuggets of information amount to gasol suggesting he`s close to a move to a western conference team and memphis`s wishes for picks,young players and/or expiring contracts.

It cant be that hard to work out which teams have the right pieces and the need to get him i would say,i shall investigate


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## rosenthall (Aug 1, 2002)

I wouldn't trade Gordon for Gasol in any deal. Opening up one hole for another hole doesn't really get us anywhere.

I would trade TT and the pick, if it meant not giving up any of Hinrich, Deng, or Gordon (I would very grudgingly trade Noc with those pieces, but would prefer getting rid of Sefolosha if push came to shove).

Giving up your most legitimate means of future improvement hurts, but a starting 5 of

Wallace
Gasol
Deng
Gordon
Hinrich

would make us likely favorites to come out of the East for the next 3-4 years, and possibly beyond, and that type of bird in the hand is worth a lot.

The only core player I would give up is Deng. I would do Deng + the pick before I would do Deng + TT, but would ultimately do either one, if push came to shove.

If Jerry West demands that we take back Brian Cardinal, then I would subtract either one of TT or the pick, depending on which one we decided to give up.

As far as filler goes, I don't really care all that much, but if at all possible, I'd prefer to keep PJ Brown and substitute Malik, Sweetney, etc., especially if we're going with the first trade where we give up all our future assets, since the whole point of the trade would be to make us an Eastern contender.


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

MemphisX said:


> So in summary you guys want Gasol....for nothing.


Yeah, we'd rather this not be a fair trade. Look at our own experience with trades involving big men:

-- AD & Curry for Sweetney, a 1st round draft picks, a pick swap, and 2 2nd rounders.
-- Chandler for PJ Brown & (essentially 2 2nd rounders)
-- Miller, Artest & Mercer for Jalen Rose.

We got ripped on all of those trades, and Curry was the only one who demanded a trade.

And the Bulls are not the exception. 
LA did not get fair value for Shaq when they had to trade him to Miami. 
Milwalkee didn't get fair value for Kareem Jabbar when he demanded to be traded.
The 76ers didn't get fair value for Wilt Chamberlain when he was traded to LA.

I can't think of a single instance where a quality big man was traded in his prime because he demanded it and the team who traded him came out ahead. 

Don't expect to get fair value for a good big man with a big contract who demands to be traded. You won't.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Thanks. I've pretty much stayed consistent all along, but this seemed like a good place to summarize all of my thoughts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm not sure, but I think the basic idea is that a team's draft pick is considered it's property in its entirety until it actually goes to another team.

That is, the Knick's pick is still the Knick's pick. We just acquired the right to swap ours for theirs, not the pick itself. 

Because the Knicks themselves still own the pick, they own all of the residual rights that go along with it, such as to add protection to it. Because we only have a conditional interest in the pick, I'm thinking we have no right to add more conditions.

I could be wrong, and it's been a long time since I studied property law :mrt:


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## Ron Cey (Dec 27, 2004)

MikeDC said:


> I'm not sure, but I think the basic idea is that a team's draft pick is considered it's property in its entirety until it actually goes to another team.
> 
> That is, the Knick's pick is still the Knick's pick. We just acquired the right to swap ours for theirs, not the pick itself.
> 
> ...


That is interesting, but I'm not sure it really matters in a legal property sense. I'm sure its something contractual in the CBA overriding what would otherwise be a legally enforceable property transfer.

I'll explain this in a few minutes.


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> It's more like a bet with a 5% chance to completely reface the franchise. That's hard to give up, especially when you are already a playoff team and normally don't have a shot at these types of players.


This is the kind of thought process that gets people to spend the grocery money on lottery tickets.

I think you need to look at the Knicks pick for what it is likely to be, namely, somewhere in the 8-12 range. As good as this draft figures to be, the chances of getting a big who will be a starter next season are pretty remote.

Net, given the fact that the Knicks don't suck nearly as much as we'd like them to, we shouldn't overvalue that pick in trade talks. I'm sure prospective trading partners won't.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

I've got to agree with Rhyder on the pick. Consider it in terms of expected value. A guy like Oden or Durant could literally be the face of the franchise for 15 years. A guy like that... basing it off guys like Hakeem or MJ or Magic or Lebron... how much is that worth?

I really have no clue, I'll admit, but to guess I'd say $100M over their career is possibly not out of line.

How much would, say, the #8 pick be worth? All told, after salary, a #8 pick usually doesn't add a whole lot to the table. Maybe they're worth $1M.

So suppose you have a 95% chance of getting the #8 pick and a 5% chance of getting Oden or Durant. Which one of those is more valuable? The expected value of the 95% chance is 950k. The expected value of the 5% chance is $5M.

Even if it's a 99% vs. 1% chance, the 1% chance is still worth a million and the 99% chance is only worth $999k

While my valuations are a guess, I think they're actually in the ballpark. The point is, even though the probability is quite low of getting the top guys, they seem that much better that it's worth it.

The odds are markedly better than the average lottery, which always has a negative expected value.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

MikeDC said:


> I've got to agree with Rhyder on the pick. Consider it in terms of expected value. A guy like Oden or Durant could literally be the face of the franchise for 15 years. A guy like that... basing it off guys like Hakeem or MJ or Magic or Lebron... how much is that worth?
> 
> I really have no clue, I'll admit, but to guess I'd say $100M over their career is possibly not out of line.
> 
> ...


Nice analogy. That's a large part of the reason why I don't wanna trade the pick either. It's also the reason why I wouldn't trade the pick and any of our good young players. The pick itself and filler I'd do though, cause Gasol isn't too bad himself, and is more or less a sure thing, and would definitely make the team stronger in the short run. Trading say Deng, Thabo, 1st for Gasol doesn't do improve it a whole lot in my opinion in the next couple years, and after the next 3-5 years we'd be worse because of it.


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> I've got to agree with Rhyder on the pick. Consider it in terms of expected value. A guy like Oden or Durant could literally be the face of the franchise for 15 years. A guy like that... basing it off guys like Hakeem or MJ or Magic or Lebron... how much is that worth?
> 
> I really have no clue, I'll admit, but to guess I'd say $100M over their career is possibly not out of line.
> 
> ...


Completely valid thinking. I've done this type of analysis in my work life.

In practical terms, this means that, given the quality of the early draft, the pick is worth somewhat more than 8th picks in past years. I buy that. However, it's the line of thinking that, "we can't trade that pick, because there's a 2.3% chance it could turn out to be Oden," I don't buy.


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

http://www.basketballforum.com/showthread.php?t=336281 has a layout of the lottery possibilities. There is a significant drop off after the 7th slot. 

Chance For a Top 3 Pick

1st: 64.2% 
2nd: 55.7%
3rd: 42.5%
4th: 42.4%
5th: 29.0%
6th: 18.3% 
7th: 18.3% (*11.3%* chance at a franchise-changing top 2 pick!)
8th: 8.2%

The drop-off after the 7th slot makes any further probabilities not worth tallying. When was the last time a team outside the bottom 7 still received a top 3 pick? I remember Orlando once won the lottery at the 13th slot. That was 14 years ago, in the 1993 NBA draft. 

I think the Knicks have a strong chance of finishing with the 7th worst record in the league, which makes the pick a trade-killer in my opinion.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

rwj333 said:


> http://www.basketballforum.com/showthread.php?t=336281 has a layout of the lottery possibilities. There is a significant drop off after the 7th slot.
> 
> Chance For a Top 3 Pick
> 
> ...


Nice research. So it would appear that worst case scenario, we have to really pull for a minimum of 7th (worst) from the Knicks. I checked earlier this week and they were only 2 games out of 4th place, so that's definitely a reasonable expectation.


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

rwj333 said:


> http://www.basketballforum.com/showthread.php?t=336281 has a layout of the lottery possibilities. There is a significant drop off after the 7th slot.
> 
> Chance For a Top 3 Pick
> 
> ...


Very nice work.:clap: 

Who is the consensus #3 pick?


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

transplant said:


> Very nice work.:clap:
> 
> Who is the consensus #3 pick?


IDK for sure. Probably Brandon Wright of UNC, or Noah of Flordia? I'd rank Wright at #3 right now, but it's possible a big might sneak in there (7 footer big, not 6'10" PF big lol).


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

transplant said:


> Completely valid thinking. I've done this type of analysis in my work life.
> 
> In practical terms, this means that, given the quality of the early draft, the pick is worth somewhat more than 8th picks in past years. I buy that. However, it's the line of thinking that, "we can't trade that pick, because there's a 2.3% chance it could turn out to be Oden," I don't buy.


I apologize for my generalization. I was going to explain it in a similar fashion to MikeDC when I saw your post, but I see he beat me to it. If this were the '06 draft, then I'm singing a completely different tune, and I'm sure this is why New York still isn't too upset that we ended up with the #2 pick.

Your lottery analogy isn't completely entirely accurate either. NBA lottery teams are given the lottery tickets and it is up to the GM to determine how to spend them. If you were given a lottery ticket, there would be a break even point at which you would sell it to a person and both parties would get equal value.

In the NBA version, West has a right to play the purely statistical aspect (as you did in your argument). Paxson is likely looking as MikeDC pointed out, and probably values it a bit higher than that even still. If Paxson trades the pick and it hits, and landing Gasol means we don't make it to the finals, his job could likely be on the line. It's a completely irrational statistical argument, but it is a natural fear, and therefore will add value to the pick when Paxson is deciding on trading it.

My attempt in analyzing the trade was what West could likely get vs. what we could likely give. I think the pick will be tough to negotiate, because it is likely that West values the pick at a much lower rate than we do. That's why it is easier to include someone like Tyrus, who is a known value but still has the unknown potential associated with him. Of course, West has to like him as a player as well.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

Here's a completely different way to look at it.

The pick very well could be the single most valuable asset we have. I know I value our guys pretty highly, but this looks like a very good draft. Depending on who's available at our pick, would we trade someone like Deng to get him? I could at least imagine the answer to that being yes.


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## The ROY (Nov 11, 2004)

transplant said:


> Very nice work.:clap:
> 
> Who is the consensus #3 pick?


#1 Oden
#2 Durant
#3 Noah or B. Wright, depending on who's picking and who has the better tournament run
#4 (see above)
#5 Hawes


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

The possiblity of trading up in the draft needs to be factored in as well.

If the Bulls get the #10 pick after the lottery they should be able to trade it, the two 2007 draft picks and, say, Khyrapa to move up a few slots -- say to #6. 

From there, who knows? The 2007 6th pick, the 2008 1st and Duhon might just get the #3 pick. 

Welcome to Chicago Noah. Buy a warm coat.

So, I agree. The 2007 NY pick is valuable.


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## southpark (Jul 5, 2003)

McBulls said:


> If the Bulls get the #10 pick after the lottery they should be able to trade it, the two 2007 draft picks and, say, Khyrapa to move up a few slots -- say to #6.
> 
> From there, who knows? The 2007 6th pick, the 2008 1st and Duhon might just get the #3 pick.


Those are pipe dreams...no team would do either of those trades


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## SausageKingofChicago (Feb 14, 2005)

SausageKingofChicago said:


> Deng, Duhon + our Knicks pick swap ( top 10 protected in 2007 ) and unconditional in 2008 - with PJ Brown thrown in to balance
> 
> for
> 
> ...


OK if we don't own protection rights I would offer our 2nd rounders ( we have two in 2007 don't we ? ) and a 2008 1st 

But I would still be prepared to offer Deng and Duhon with that amended draft package


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## truebluefan (May 27, 2002)

According to LA Times "coast to coast" for today: (Dont have the link, sorry)

Insiders say Memphis keeps dropping its asking price for *Pau Gasol*, suggesting owner *Michael Heisley* has told *Jerry West* to forget fair value and slash the payroll.

The Grizzlies reportedly asked Chicago for *Ben Gordon*, *Luol Deng* and the Knicks' No. 1 pick, which the Bulls own. Now Memphis is down to Deng _or_ Gordon plus another young player such as *Thabo Sefolosha*, *P.J. Brown's* expiring contract and a 2009 first-rounder.

Insiders say a few losses may bring the Bulls around. They just eked out a win in Seattle to go 1-1 on this seven-game West Coast trip, so stay tuned.


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

southpark said:


> Those are pipe dreams...no team would do either of those trades


Portland traded Khryapa, the #4 pick for the #2 pick and a second round choice last year. So I guess someone must enjoy smoking.:biggrin: I'd look up other examples, but I'm really not that interested in convincing you.


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## step (Sep 19, 2005)

> Insiders say Memphis keeps dropping its asking price for Pau Gasol, suggesting owner Michael Heisley has told Jerry West to forget fair value and slash the payroll.


Well, this ought to make things interersting.


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## southpark (Jul 5, 2003)

McBulls said:


> Portland traded Khryapa, the #4 pick for the #2 pick and a second round choice last year. So I guess someone must enjoy smoking.:biggrin: I'd look up other examples, but I'm really not that interested in convincing you.


sure in a much weaker overall draft...this one is considered a much deeper one and the #2 pick (Durant or maybe even Oden) is worth more than a 4 and Khryapa (especially since his value is at an all time low; we haven't even been playing him) so sure if you want to keep dreaming, go ahead but I'm really not that interested in convincing you. Hell, why not even hope Khryapa + #4 + '08 or '09 first nets us the #1 pick?


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## BG7 (Jun 25, 2003)

Just a thought. Say we end up with like the #9 pick in the draft, and Milwaukee ends up with #1. They already have Bogut.

So what about Bulls Trade:

-Luol Deng
-Chris Duhon
-#9 Overall Pick
-2008 Pick

So then we have

PG-Kirk Hinrich
SG-Ben Gordon
SF-Andres Nocioni
PF-Ben Wallace
C- Greg Oden

off the bench.

Tyrus Thomas
Thabo Sefolosha.

Long term we would have

PG-Kirk Hinrich
SG-Ben Gordon
SF-Thabo Sefolosha
PF-Tyrus Thomas
C- Greg Oden.

As someone has said already, Thabo and Deng play a similiar style.

Of course David Stern could just rig the lottery, and give us the #1 pick no matter what!


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

The ROY said:


> #1 Oden
> #2 Durant
> #3 Noah or B. Wright, depending on who's picking and who has the better tournament run
> #4 (see above)
> #5 Hawes


I hesitate to ever put the "can't miss superstar" tag on a 19 or 20 year old draft pick. However, I'll make an exception with Oden and Durant. Both are extraordinary. Don't know much about their respective work ethics, though.

Noah and Wright are "could be great, probably be very good" players who may take a while to make an impact. I haven't seen Hawes play. What I've read is less than awe-inspiring.

As far as the Bulls, an already good team in need of NBA-ready performers, are concerned, it's a 2-player draft and the swap looks like it'll give us something like a 5% chance at one of those 2.

As for trading up, trading one of our established youngs to move up only makes sense to me if it's for Oden or Durant, and any GM that can draft Oden or Duran would be declared legally insane for trading one of them for one of our established youngs.


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## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

step said:


> Well, this ought to make things interersting.


But we knew that already.

West has been bluffing. The real issue is what goes with Ben G or L D or K H.

That's the concern, I think, from our end.

And even then, I think there is some hesitation on Pax's part for the very considerations MikeDC has brought up about how much our core has improved.


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## SALO (Jun 6, 2002)

truebluefan said:


> According to LA Times "coast to coast" for today: (Dont have the link, sorry)
> 
> Insiders say Memphis keeps dropping its asking price for *Pau Gasol*, suggesting owner *Michael Heisley* has told *Jerry West* to forget fair value and slash the payroll.
> 
> ...


Thanks for the update! Made my day. :biggrin: 

Wow, a _2009 first-rounder_? I wonder why Memphis would want a pick two years from now instead of 2008? Obviously Pax isn't going to include the Knicks 2007 pick because he can't put any protection on it. 

I'd hate to give up on Thabo this early in his career but if we could get Dahntay Jones in return from Memphis that would be a decent stop-gap for the short-term. Maybe we could get Thabo's long-term replacement with the Knicks pick (Fernandez, Bellinini).


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

Deng, Duhon, PJ and '09 1st wouldn't be bad for Gasol. That's the most I'd give up.


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## Fergus (Oct 2, 2002)

I was really happy to see that Memphis is reportedly dropping their asking price. I think you have to stongly consider a deal of either Deng or Gordon, plus either Thabo or Duhon, P.J plus a 2009 draft pick for Gasol. I would much prefer to add Sweetney as well, especially if we could get Jones.

The real question is do we offer Deng or Gordon. Personally, I would rather keep Deng and include Gordon. On one hand, Gordon may always be a really great 6th man, but never a great starter. On the other, while Deng is proving he can be a solid (?great?) starter, you do have Noc and Thomas ready to step in.

My preference would be to go with Gordon, Sweetney, P.J and the 2009 pick if we could get Memphis to go for it.


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## SecretAgentGuy (Jul 15, 2003)

Sorry, posted the LA Times quote in another thread and missed it here. Anyhow, glad to hear it. NY pick is off limits for me. NY is not a playoff team and at best they'll wind up 2nd in their division. IIRC, Houston just missed the playoffs and wound up with Yao. Missing out on Durant or Oden would be devestating. I'd be willing to give up a package consisting of a future pick(s), Deng, and Thabo. If we take on Cardinal's salary then either Thabo or the pick gets taken off the table. Gordon and Hinrich are untouchable and if we include Duhon we better be getting a serviceable PG in return. I'd also be able to live with a deal that surrounds Tyrus instead of Deng but my guess is the Logo hangs up the phone.

Considering that the asking price has dropped so much you have to wonder what the hold up is. The supposed asking price is a steal. Anything less is highway robbery. Gitter done Pax!


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## lougehrig (Mar 1, 2005)

MikeDC said:


> Truth be told, I'm very on the fence about trading Deng for Gasol.


Gasol is on fire lately. He seems like a player that when motivated (currently and this summer with Spain) is another player.

If we get the production from the current Gasol:

22 ppg, 11 rpg, 3.4 apg, 2.8 bpg its worth Deng in my opinion.

If we get his usual production prior to this season:

18-20 ppg, 7-9 rpg 2.4 apg, 1.9 bpg its not worth it. Deng can provide those numbers.

Of course if we can keep Gordon and Deng, then we are the best we can be. Even trading away Hinrich is worth it.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

SALO said:


> Thanks for the update! Made my day. :biggrin:
> 
> Wow, a _2009 first-rounder_? I wonder why Memphis would want a pick two years from now instead of 2008? Obviously Pax isn't going to include the Knicks 2007 pick because he can't put any protection on it.
> 
> I'd hate to give up on Thabo this early in his career but if we could get Dahntay Jones in return from Memphis that would be a decent stop-gap for the short-term. Maybe we could get Thabo's long-term replacement with the Knicks pick (Fernandez, Bellinini).


Perhaps the '09 draft pick is Paxson's doing. If we trade Memphis the '08 pick, we wouldn't be able to trade the '07 pick until draft day. Might Paxson have a couple of deals he is looking at? Perhaps he is just keeping his options open.

Of course, Memphis might think we have a better chance of a losing record as Wallace ages or players leaving in FA, etc. I'm not sure what '09 looks like, but Mayo and Beasley will probably declare for the '08 draft if they can live up to their hype.


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