# John Hollinger's NCAA Translations: TT the best in last years draft, Hawes a bust



## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

Today, John Hollinger released his system of translating NCAA statistics to predict success in the NBA. 

Tyrus ranks as the top college prospect in last year's draft by a large margin.



> Thomas was head-and-shoulders above the crowd by my method, while second-rounder Davis is a lottery pick by the same reckoning; we'll see if it works out that way in real life. College stars Adam Morrison and J.J. Redick are nowhere to be found, both red-flagged by horrid rebound rates, among other woes.


Lu also rated the top college player in his draft class.

Hawes is ranked as the 30th best college player in the draft (in other words, a second round pick). 



> Hawes has an unimpressive rebound rate, which is a huge red flag considering he was bigger than everyone he played against. And for all the talk of his great post skills, he had a run-of-the-mill 55.0 true shooting percentage and didn't even have the best PER on his mediocre team (that belonged to Jon Brockman). A lot of folks think he can become a quality pro post player; based on his numbers, I just don't see it.


I've been on the Hawes bandwagon for months but it's possible my resolve is finally starting to crack ever so slightly.

Of other players the Bulls could conceivably take, B. Wright is 5th, Noah is 11th, Green is 14th, and Yi is not ranked since he didn't play in the NCAA.

Looking at the past results, the rankings seem to have some merit though their best attribute may be identifying underrated college players. For instance, Boozer would've been rated the top college player in his draft. If you were to place too much emphasis on the precise rankings, you'd make critical mistakes (not necessarily unlike the actual draft) such as taking Sheldon Williams over Roy, Delonte West over Okafor, Luke Jackson over Gordon and Iguodala, and so on. Hollinger seems pretty cognizant of this as he mentions how scouting could be used to supplement the ratings a few different times.

The article is a free insider trial.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf.../story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=ProRater


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## chifaninca (May 28, 2002)

TT was the best player from last year's draft........

That's all I needed to know.

We couldn't trade TT, Thabo and this year's 9 for Bargnani or Aldridge; not to mention ROY.

Stats are fun, but I would think this board would know that stats can be misunderstood and used for iehter side of the argument.

I do find it amusing that he says stay away from Hawes and Law - two reported Paxson interests.


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

Any system that ignores the differences in positions and ignores the system the player played in, the coaching and defense is going to be problematic.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

chifaninca said:


> TT was the best player from last year's draft........
> 
> That's all I needed to know.
> 
> ...


I don't really understand what you're arguing here. I don't think either Hollinger or myself portrayed the numbers are suggesting that Tyrus had the best rookie season in the NBA last year. The ratings are pretty straightforward if you ask me: based on a formula John has developed to translate college stats into NBA success, Tyrus would be projected as the most successful player in the NBA. I don't think either of us suggested the numbers perfectly predict the future; the results from past drafts demonstrate that pretty clearly. Are you arguing that it's inconceivable that Tyrus could ultimately have the best career of the players in his draft class? 

I think you're likely wrong about your suggestions of those player's trade values (as far as I can tell they're based solely on your personal evaluations of NBA assets) but either way, one or two GM's evaluations of their own recent draft choices compared to that of another team aren't particularly relevant to this discussion. FWIW, a case can be made that Tyrus had a better rookie season than Bargnani.


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## Mateo (Sep 23, 2006)

I agree about Hawes rebounding. That's inexcusable.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

andalusian said:


> Any system that ignores the differences in positions and ignores the system the player played in, the coaching and defense is going to be problematic.


At the college level? The system is already measured to a large extent by accounting for pace. In that sense, the difference between a run and gun offense and the Princeton offense will be more or less accounted for. Also, positions are differentiated with, for example, the different rebounding and true point bench marks he sets for different positions. 

Furthermore, factors that are difficult or impossible to measure with stats such as coaching - I'm not even that sure what you're referring to here, the quality of the teaching the player receives at the college level? - are the reason Hollinger mentioned supplementing the numbers with scouting several times. He gives the example of Borchardt's bad feet as critical additional information. 

Also, I don't think flaws make measurements useless. The goal is to acquire as much information as possible and know the limitations of what you're looking at. I sometimes say that if you gave me half the winning lotto numbers, I wouldn't refuse to consider writing them down on the ticket I just bought simply because I didn't have the remaining numbers. Incomplete information is a lot better than no information. For instance, you're correct that the statistics that exist to measure defense are generally incomplete and/or unreliable but that certainly doesn't mean statistics that can successfully measure and/or project offensive production aren't useful.


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

JeremyB0001 said:


> I don't really understand what you're arguing here. I don't think either Hollinger or myself portrayed the numbers are suggesting that Tyrus had the best rookie season in the NBA last year. The ratings are pretty straightforward if you ask me: based on a formula John has developed to translate college stats into NBA success, Tyrus would be projected as the most successful player in the NBA. I don't think either of us suggested the numbers perfectly predict the future; the results from past drafts demonstrate that pretty clearly. Are you arguing that it's inconceivable that Tyrus could ultimately have the best career of the players in his draft class?
> 
> I think you're likely wrong about your suggestions of those player's trade values (as far as I can tell they're based solely on your personal evaluations of NBA assets) but either way, one or two GM's evaluations of their own recent draft choices compared to that of another team aren't particularly relevant to this discussion. FWIW, a case can be made that Tyrus had a better rookie season than Bargnani.


Damn fine post.

Regardless of Hollinger's stats, I wouldn't count Thomas out as POSSIBLY being the best rookie from last year's class.


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## smARTmouf (Jul 16, 2002)

I think that's some good stuff.

Great read.


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## chifaninca (May 28, 2002)

What I'm saying is that his system is flawed on many levels. I'm not saying they're useless, just that stats in general don't tell half the story.

For instance, Ben Wallace, tips a large number of balls that get official rebounds for other teammates.....so that doesn't show anywhere. Additionally, when it's one players responsibility to rebound, other guys will back off if they know that player has the rebound. Brockman (Hawes' teammate is a very good rebounder. I'm not excusing Hawes, cause I too, expect more rebounds.

Also, Hollinger says Morrison and Reddick ahd horrible rebounding numbers ...........Duh, they were the MAIN shooters for their respective teams,; and damn good ones. So my other objectiion was that he seemed to be nitpicking in areas of irrelevance. If Ben Gordon was a team leader in rebounds, I'd be horrified.

As for Tyrus and his value, I've been quick to point out that Tyrus isn't a throw in for any trades we make. However, his on court production (or lack there of) suggests that Hollingers stats don't mean much in the NBA. Also, if that stats tell that much of the story, we should be worried, or Tyrus is huge underachiever. I don't believe either to be correct. We knew he was unpolished and would take some time to develop. The stats can't reflect that. Again, my problem is with stats being so highly regarded as a measuring stick.

Alot of the top college guys could've, would've, should've, but didn't regardless of their college stats. 

Again, stats are nice and can give you a flavor for a guy, but they don't enough of the story and they are impossible (IMHO) to compare, since you have some guys who are the team (Durant) and others who are part of a team (NC, Duke, Florida). Also, some teams play horrible teams, while other play very good teams more often.

I'm praying Tyrus becomes the best player from last year, because it sure seems that finding a stud PF would've been easier in this draft, than finding a stud Center.


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## DaBabyBullz (May 26, 2006)

The big red flag from that, is our very own worthless Sweet-tooth being ranked so highly. #2 overall in his draft class? Give me a break. That made me disgust the fat piece of crap even more than I did before...knowing that he actually used to be an "absolute beast" in college and is too damn lazy to stay in shape so he can even make it ONTO the court now.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

DaBabyBullz said:


> The big red flag from that, is our very own worthless Sweet-tooth being ranked so highly. #2 overall in his draft class? Give me a break. That made me disgust the fat piece of crap even more than I did before...knowing that he actually used to be an "absolute beast" in college and is too damn lazy to stay in shape so he can even make it ONTO the court now.


I don't think it's a red flag for precisely the reasons you mentioned. If he took good care of himself he might've been a pretty good NBA player.


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## T.Shock (Feb 11, 2003)

DaBabyBullz said:


> The big red flag from that, is our very own worthless Sweet-tooth being ranked so highly. #2 overall in his draft class? Give me a break. That made me disgust the fat piece of crap even more than I did before...knowing that he actually used to be an "absolute beast" in college and is too damn lazy to stay in shape so he can even make it ONTO the court now.


Hollinger also points this out. Apparently Sweets averaged 2 steals a game at Georgetown and anybody who remembered him during his college days knows he wasn't the plodding oaf he is today. Big Baby with better athleticism is how I'd describe his college career. Like Hollinger said, Sweets simply lost the battle with the buffet table.


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

Sweetney was bigger than everyone in college.His athleticism matched up better with othere big men.He's like Marcus Fizer,great player so long as he's not playing against some as big and strong as he or better.In college these guys are able to play like Shaq,then they get to the NBA and everyone else is Shaq compared to them.The matchups no long tilt their way


Another thing that would skew Sweets college numbers is the fact that this is based on a per minute basis.In actual truth Sweetney was in foul trouble from the moment he got onto Georgetown's campus until the moment he left...He'd probably still be if he was getting minutes.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

chifaninca said:


> What I'm saying is that his system is flawed on many levels. I'm not saying they're useless, just that stats in general don't tell half the story.


As I wrote in my last post, half the story is infinitely better than none. It only poses a problem if you completely disregard everything else but these ratings and I don't see why on earth anyone would just trash tried and true scouting techniques like that. 



chifaninca said:


> For instance, Ben Wallace, tips a large number of balls that get official rebounds for other teammates.....so that doesn't show anywhere.


Not necessarily. A guy who jumps that high and has that kind of nose for the ball likely gets a lot of rebounds and maybe also blocked shots.



chifaninca said:


> Additionally, when it's one players responsibility to rebound, other guys will back off if they know that player has the rebound. Brockman (Hawes' teammate is a very good rebounder. I'm not excusing Hawes, cause I too, expect more rebounds.


That's fair. I'm just not sure it has that drastic of an impact. Eddy's rebounds haven't gone up much since he stopped playing with Tyson though I guess he has Lee now. 



chifaninca said:


> Also, Hollinger says Morrison and Reddick ahd horrible rebounding numbers ...........Duh, they were the MAIN shooters for their respective teams,; and damn good ones. So my other objectiion was that he seemed to be nitpicking in areas of irrelevance. If Ben Gordon was a team leader in rebounds, I'd be horrified.


I don't think that has much to do with it. First of all, only offensive rebounds would be related to how much you shoot. Secondly, there are a lot of scorers in NBA history who have been good rebounders (Jordon, LeBron, Magic, Bird, etc.) Hollinger claims that rebounding in college is a proxy for athleticism which makes some sense since strength and jumping are pretty instrumental there. 



chifaninca said:


> As for Tyrus and his value, I've been quick to point out that Tyrus isn't a throw in for any trades we make. However, his on court production (or lack there of) suggests that Hollingers stats don't mean much in the NBA. Also, if that stats tell that much of the story, we should be worried, or Tyrus is huge underachiever. I don't believe either to be correct. We knew he was unpolished and would take some time to develop. The stats can't reflect that. Again, my problem is with stats being so highly regarded as a measuring stick.


So what you're saying is that college stats should only be capable of projecting a player's rookie season and not subsequent seasons? Because Hollinger said pretty much the opposite i.e. it's too early too tell after just one season let's see how accurate these projections turn out. 

I think you're referring to Tyrus' lack of playing time, not his lack of production. For the amount of minutes he played he was pretty productive for a rookie, more productive than Bargnani asI hinted at earlier. 



chifaninca said:


> Alot of the top college guys could've, would've, should've, but didn't regardless of their college stats.


One issue that I have is it seems as though he might've relied very heavily on the few most recent seasons to calibrate the formula. However, in some ways that might be unavoidable since the league is very different now than it was ten years ago. Anyways, what I think Hollinger's answer to your criticism would be is that it depends on which statistics you're looking at and how heavily you weight them. Some statistics like rebounding have been shown to translate very well to the NBA. So a lot of the players you're thinking off may have had great numbers in college but not the best statistical profile for success in the NBA e.g. high scoring, mediocre shooting percentage, below average rebounding, steals, and shot blocking, etc. 



chifaninca said:


> Again, stats are nice and can give you a flavor for a guy, but they don't enough of the story and they are impossible (IMHO) to compare, since you have some guys who are the team and others who are part of a team (NC, Duke, Florida). (Durant)


Again this is another reason you don't stop scouting players. Still, for anyone to be able to take over games the way Durant did is impressive. It's hard to say that type of thing depends heavily on coaching since the way he dominated games is close to unparalleled. It's hard to say he couldn't have done so on those other teams because they just may not have ever had a player that dominant compared to the league at that age. 



chifaninca said:


> Also, some teams play horrible teams, while other play very good teams more often.


Hollinger discusses the strength of schedule adjustment he uses in the article.


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

JeremyB0001 said:


> Also, I don't think flaws make measurements useless.


I never said useless, I said problematic. As long as measurements are going to help you make a selection and are not the rule book you work with - they are useful.

FWIW - I work in the business intelligence industry - so I have some ideas about the subject.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

Diable said:


> Sweetney was bigger than everyone in college.His athleticism matched up better with othere big men.He's like Marcus Fizer,great player so long as he's not playing against some as big and strong as he or better.In college these guys are able to play like Shaq,then they get to the NBA and everyone else is Shaq compared to them.The matchups no long tilt their way


Yeah but that reasoning erroneously equates his first two seasons (17.23 & 16.44 PER) with his last couple seasons (13.88 & 10.98 PER). The success he had early in his career conflicts pretty strongly with the argument that his college success was the result of a size advantage that disappeared once he reached the NBA. It's hard to avoid the conclusion that his career has been on a sharp decline. His FG% dropped nearly .100 points in two years.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

andalusian said:


> I never said useless, I said problematic. As long as measurements are going to help you make a selection and are not the rule book you work with - they are useful.
> 
> FWIW - I work in the business intelligence industry - so I have some ideas about the subject.


Fair enough. I guess I just inferred a little too much into your post.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)




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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

Mateo said:


> I agree about Hawes rebounding. That's inexcusable.


The Bulls are a pretty good rebounding team right now thanks to Deng and Wallace (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatreb&season=2007&seasontype=2.)
I think they could cover for Hawes.


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

What worries me the most about Hawes is his durability. He had knee surgery before his first and only year at Washington. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/cbasketball/320275_hawes19.html


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

chifaninca said:


> What I'm saying is that his system is flawed on many levels. I'm not saying they're useless, just that stats in general don't tell half the story.
> 
> For instance, Ben Wallace, tips a large number of balls that get official rebounds for other teammates.....so that doesn't show anywhere. Additionally, when it's one players responsibility to rebound, other guys will back off if they know that player has the rebound. Brockman (Hawes' teammate is a very good rebounder. I'm not excusing Hawes, cause I too, expect more rebounds.
> 
> ...


Hollinger isn't making grandiose claims and his methodology is clear and logical. No one is saying Tyrus is going to be the best player in his draft, or that Durant is going to be better than Oden. It does indicate that those two were the safest picks in their year. 

The article's true value is that it predicted busts or disappointments with almost perfect accuracy. That's frightening if you're a Hawes fan (which I'm not).


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## HINrichPolice (Jan 6, 2004)

JeremyB0001 said:


> *
> Looking at the past results, the rankings seem to have some merit though their best attribute may be identifying underrated college players.* For instance, Boozer would've been rated the top college player in his draft. If you were to place too much emphasis on the precise rankings, you'd make critical mistakes (not necessarily unlike the actual draft) such as taking Sheldon Williams over Roy, Delonte West over Okafor, Luke Jackson over Gordon and Iguodala, and so on. Hollinger seems pretty cognizant of this as he mentions how scouting could be used to supplement the ratings a few different times.


Considering that this is Hollinger's first iteration, I think the bolded statement is where these ratings truly hold weight.

The results indicate that players like Fazekas and Thaddeus Young shouldn't be slept on. Visser and Herbert Hill could be big men that we could get in the 2nd round and shouldn't pass up if available.


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## HINrichPolice (Jan 6, 2004)

rwj333 said:


> Hollinger isn't making grandiose claims and his methodology is clear and logical. No one is saying Tyrus is going to be the best player in his draft, or that Durant is going to be better than Oden. It does indicate that those two were the safest picks in their year.
> 
> *The article's true value is that it predicted busts or disappointments with almost perfect accuracy.* That's frightening if you're a Hawes fan (which I'm not).


I think a more accurate interpretation of the results is that it predicts the sleeper picks - guys who have been ranked low on mock drafts but in reality should be drafted higher based on his rating. There are only 3 significant players that didn't make top-12 in any of years he analyzed. Those guys weren't that far from the cut - Vllanueva (13), Foye (13), and Kaman (16).

However, I'm struggling to figure out exactly how my interpretation is different than yours. It's giving me a headache.

I guess the only reason I wouldn't say with confidence that the rating system is good for "predicting busts or disappointments" is because Hollinger's system has highly rated players that have become busts/disappointments (Paul Davis?, Luke Jackson, etc).


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

HINrichPolice said:


> The results indicate that players like Fazekas and Thaddeus Young shouldn't be slept on. Visser and Herbert Hill could be big men that we could get in the 2nd round and shouldn't pass up if available.


The Rockets are supposedly looking to take Fazekas at #26 so I don't think he'll be slept on too badly.


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## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

HINrichPolice said:


> I think a more accurate interpretation of the results is that it predicts the sleeper picks - guys who have been ranked low on mock drafts but in reality should be drafted higher based on his rating. There are only 3 significant players that didn't make top-12 in any of years he analyzed. Those guys weren't that far from the cut - Vllanueva (13), Foye (13), and Kaman (16).
> 
> However, I'm struggling to figure out exactly how my interpretation is different than yours. It's giving me a headache.


If it predicts sleepers, then why do Patrick O'Bryant, Shelden Williams, Chris Taft, Delonte West, and other poor prospects still get scores above 500? I'm not sure how much I would trust his system to identify sleepers. I guess if the Bulls had a low pick and were willing to gamble on an unheralded player with a high score it might be more useful. 

I thought it was more interesting that no player with a score below 480 has shown all-star talent in the NBA. I think. Most have been outright busts or role players.

That causes me to become very negative about Nick Young, for example.


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

rwj333 said:


> I guess if the Bulls had a low pick and were willing to gamble on an unheralded player with a high score it might be more useful.


Exactly. I think it might be most useful if you were sitting around 15-25 and were convinced to look a little bit more closely at McRoberts, Fazekas, Davis, Dudley, or Visser. It might land some of those guys more firmly on your radar if you'd more or less shrugged them off before.


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## Headfake98 (Dec 10, 2006)

Hodges said:


> The Bulls are a pretty good rebounding team right now thanks to Deng and Wallace (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatreb&season=2007&seasontype=2.)
> I think they could cover for Hawes.


Differential is a more telling stat, due to the pace of the game.


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

Headfake98 said:


> Differential is a more telling stat, due to the pace of the game.


The Bulls's differential is pretty good though, right?
Team Differential
1)Utah +5.5
2)New York +4.5
3)Dallas +3.8
4)Cleveland +3.7
5)Orlando +3.1
6)Chicago +2.8


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## dougthonus (Jul 18, 2006)

A few things to note, as I think a lot of people are missing the use of this:

1) It's been extremely accurate at predicting busts. Only 3 players in the sample size have been significant that weren't in the top 12 college players. Foye, CV, and Kaman. (13, 13, and 16), and if you reranked them today. For a guy like Hawes who is ranked 30th, that's be the biggest outlier of his data by a ton if he were to become a good NBA player.

2) It's been somewhat useful at predicting sleepers. He picked a few guys who weren't picked up on that well, but he also elevated some guys who haven't really deserved it either. If you look at his rankings as a group and not as an exact order, then his groups of 12 have generally been better than the top 12 actually drafted.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

chifaninca said:


> As for Tyrus and his value, I've been quick to point out that Tyrus isn't a throw in for any trades we make. However, his on court production (or lack there of) suggests that Hollingers stats don't mean much in the NBA. Also, if that stats tell that much of the story, we should be worried, or Tyrus is huge underachiever. I don't believe either to be correct. We knew he was unpolished and would take some time to develop. The stats can't reflect that. Again, my problem is with stats being so highly regarded as a measuring stick.


Hollinger's system gives higher marks to younger (and athletic) players. He didn't maximize the system to find the best first year pro or predict ROY. The system is trying to predict how good the player ultimetly will become.


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

dougthonus said:


> For a guy like Hawes who is ranked 30th, that's be the biggest outlier of his data by a ton if he were to become a good NBA player.


I know his rebounding sucks, but Hawes is ranked thirtieth? Hollinger's formula must be something like Total score = 100*RPG + PPG + APG - age


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

I don't trust a score unless I have a pretty clear how someone got the number in the first place.

Luol Deng, 19 years old, 6'8'', 15.1 PPG, 0.475 FG%, 0.710 FT%,6.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG, Hollinger score of 650.7 (I like how Hollinger includes one digit after the decimal point. The seven is a significant figure, after all)

Jeff Green, 20 years old, 6'10'', 14.3 PPG, 0.513 FG%, 0.775 FT%, 6.4 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 1.2BPG, Hollinger score of 505.5

Thanks to http://www.nba.com/draft2004/profiles/LuolDeng.html and http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft.../tracker/player?draftyear=2007&playerId=18886 for the stats.


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## Philomath (Jan 3, 2003)

That list makes me want to trade the pick, especially if Noah isn't there.


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## HINrichPolice (Jan 6, 2004)

dougthonus said:


> A few things to note, as I think a lot of people are missing the use of this:
> 
> 1) It's been extremely accurate at predicting busts. Only 3 players in the sample size have been significant that weren't in the top 12 college players. Foye, CV, and Kaman. (13, 13, and 16), and if you reranked them today. For a guy like Hawes who is ranked 30th, that's be the biggest outlier of his data by a ton if he were to become a good NBA player.
> 
> 2) It's been somewhat useful at predicting sleepers. He picked a few guys who weren't picked up on that well, but he also elevated some guys who haven't really deserved it either. If you look at his rankings as a group and not as an exact order, then his groups of 12 have generally been better than the top 12 actually drafted.


I'm not sure why interpreting the results has kinda made my mind run around in circles.

Because the way i look at it, can't you easily say that it's only somewhat useful in predicting busts because it rates certain guys way too high (Sweetney, Shelden Williams, Luke Jackson, Paul Davis, etc.) and it's extremely useful at predicting sleepers, because based on where a player is typically ranked on a mock draft, you can use Hollinger's ratings to decide who actually deserves to be higher, hence drafting a sleeper?

In the end, I definitely agree that Hollinger's ratings indicate just about every player that has a CHANCE to be a contributer, thus eliminating guys like Hawes (unless of course his illness had a significant enough effect on his performance that his stats are skewed).


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## JeremyB0001 (Nov 17, 2003)

dougthonus said:


> If you look at his rankings as a group and not as an exact order, then his groups of 12 have generally been better than the top 12 actually drafted.


I think this is a dead on assessment of the success of the ratings based on the past few drafts, though I wish the ratings for additional drafts and more than the top 12 players were posted somewhere. The exact order doesn't appear to be extremely useful at this point but if you look at the top 12 players, the rankings appear to be substantially better than the actual drafts which makes me think the rankings are doing a good job of elevating some underrated players in each draft. 



Hodges said:


> I don't trust a score unless I have a pretty clear how someone got the number in the first place.
> 
> Luol Deng, 19 years old, 6'8'', 15.1 PPG, 0.475 FG%, 0.710 FT%,6.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG, Hollinger score of 650.7 (I like how Hollinger includes one digit after the decimal point. The seven is a significant figure, after all)
> 
> Jeff Green, 20 years old, 6'10'', 14.3 PPG, 0.513 FG%, 0.775 FT%, 6.4 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 1.2BPG, Hollinger score of 505.5


It's hard to account entirely for the difference between the two without the actual formula - this reminds me of the shockingly large difference in PER between Chris Paul and Deron Williams who had what appeared to be very similar stats last season. However, based on the article, I can see a few reasons for the large discrepancy in their ratings 1) Lu played 31 minutes to Green's 34 in their final college seasons 2) the half a rebound difference in average is rated more heavily than you would suspect 3) the half a steal difference between the two is factored in much more heavily than you expect 4) the roughly 20 months in age Lu had on Green (Lu turned 19 two months prior to the draft, Green turns 21 two months after the draft) impact the score much more than you would expect.


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## Bulls4Life (Nov 13, 2002)

I wonder if Atl would take Duhon and a future 1st for the 11th pick? Based on that rating system, we gotta get Thaddeus Young! Then we'd have Thabo, Tyrus and Thaddeus!'


Say that 3 times fast after 2 beers!

:rofl:


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## jbulls (Aug 31, 2005)

chifaninca said:


> As for Tyrus and his value, I've been quick to point out that Tyrus isn't a throw in for any trades we make. However, his on court production (or lack there of) suggests that Hollingers stats don't mean much in the NBA. Also, if that stats tell that much of the story, we should be worried, or Tyrus is huge underachiever. I don't believe either to be correct. We knew he was unpolished and would take some time to develop. The stats can't reflect that. Again, my problem is with stats being so highly regarded as a measuring stick.


Lack of production? Seriously? Tyrus averaged 5 and 4 in 13 minutes a game last year - for a 49 win team. Aldridge averaged 9 and 5 in 22 minutes a game for a dreadful Blazers team. I'm sorry, but I don't see a huge gap in production seperating these two guys. It's entirely possible that Tyrus could be the best player in the draft.


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## dougthonus (Jul 18, 2006)

> Because the way i look at it, can't you easily say that it's only somewhat useful in predicting busts because it rates certain guys way too high (Sweetney, Shelden Williams, Luke Jackson, Paul Davis, etc.) and it's extremely useful at predicting sleepers, because based on where a player is typically ranked on a mock draft, you can use Hollinger's ratings to decide who actually deserves to be higher, hence drafting a sleeper?


I think we are looking at it in opposite ways:

I'm saying: "If Hollinger's system predicts you will be a bust, then you will be a bust, so it is successful at identifying busts".

You're saying: "Hollinger didn't predict many guys who were huge busts, so it is only somewhat successful at identifying busts".

I say this makes his system accurate at picking busts, because if he calls you one, then you almost certainly are one. I then say it's only somewhat accurate at picking sleepers, because many guys it identifies as sleepers end up being busts. If Hollinger identifies you as a sleeper then maybe it warrants a little extra consideration, but it doesn't make you a lock to be a sleeper or anything. He has many misidentified sleepers.


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## dougthonus (Jul 18, 2006)

> I don't trust a score unless I have a pretty clear how someone got the number in the first place.
> 
> Luol Deng, 19 years old, 6'8'', 15.1 PPG, 0.475 FG%, 0.710 FT%,6.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG, Hollinger score of 650.7 (I like how Hollinger includes one digit after the decimal point. The seven is a significant figure, after all)
> 
> Jeff Green, 20 years old, 6'10'', 14.3 PPG, 0.513 FG%, 0.775 FT%, 6.4 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 1.2BPG, Hollinger score of 505.5


1) Green is penalized for being older.
2) Green is penalized for being taller.
3) You need to use per minute stats and not per game stats


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

dougthonus said:


> I think we are looking at it in opposite ways:
> 
> I'm saying: "If Hollinger's system predicts you will be a bust, then you will be a bust, so it is successful at identifying busts".
> 
> ...


There wasn't close to enough material provided in that article to come to that conclusion. He cherry picked bust data which is why it looks so good at predicting busts.


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## ace20004u (Jun 19, 2002)

I found Hollinger's model fascinating. I am not a "stat guy", I would rather watch the players and scout them. But based on his previous sucesses I think its safe to say his system basically works. Tyrus Thomas showed huge flashes last season and he is very young. I think Hollinger rating him so high (almost 100 points higher than Oden!) bodes well for his future and I think we all expect him to have a very good future. I don't think Tyrus being a young rookie and not ROY dispels any of what Hollinger has worked up.


Now, according to Hollinger the Bulls should be looking at: 

Conley
Wright
Thaddeus Young
Nick Fazekas
Josh Mcroberts
Rodney Stuckey



Of course that doesn't take euro players, or Chineese players, into account either. Still, it doesn't seem entirely unreasonable. I am surprised to see Fazekas & Mcroberts on there, I like Fazekas though and agree he could be lottery pick type material that ends up in the second round ala Boozer. 

According to Hollinger we should definitley avoid Hawes and look for these gems to fall to the second round:

Jared Dudley
Nick Fazekas
Glen Davis
Sean Williams
Herbert Hill
Jason Smith


ACE


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

dougthonus said:


> 1) Green is penalized for being older.
> 2) Green is penalized for being taller.
> 3) You need to use per minute stats and not per game stats


Also, Hollinger said he used 1/3 of your prior season (if you are not a freshman). Green was not nearly as good last year. 45% FG% 11.9ppg.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

cpawfan said:


> There wasn't close to enough material provided in that article to come to that conclusion. He cherry picked bust data which is why it looks so good at predicting busts.


Here's his entire list, sorted by his ranking:

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 306pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="408"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"> <col style="width: 89pt;" width="119"> <col style="width: 73pt;" width="97"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td id="_x0000_s1025" x:autofilter="all" x:autofilterrange="$A$1:$E$106" style="height: 14.25pt; width: 48pt;" align="center" height="19" width="64">Yr</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1026" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">Yr.Rnk</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1027" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">PLAYER</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1028" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">SCHOOL</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1029" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 48pt;" align="right" width="64">SCORE</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kevin Durant</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Texas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">870.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Tyrus Thomas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">LSU</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">756.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Chris Paul</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Wake Forest</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">705.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Marvin Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">697.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Sean May</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">690.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Greg Oden</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Ohio State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">667.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Luol Deng</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Duke</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">650.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rashad McCants</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">639.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Mike Conley Jr.</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Ohio State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">637.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Delonte West</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Saint Joseph's</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">626.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Devin Harris</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Wisconsin</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">614.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Thaddeus Young</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Georgia Tech</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">604.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Brandan Wright</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">601.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Al Horford</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Florida</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">601</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Nick Fazekas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Nevada</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">594.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Shelden Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Duke</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">583.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Andrew Bogut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Utah</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">579.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Channing Frye</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Arizona</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">579.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Emeka Okafor</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">579.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Josh McRoberts</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Duke</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">566.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Raymond Felton</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">562.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Chris Taft</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Pittsburgh</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">559.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Luke Jackson</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Oregon</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">558.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rodney Stuckey</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">E. Washington</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">557.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Brandon Roy</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Washington</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">557.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ronnie Brewer</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Arkansas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">555.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Danny Granger</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">New Mexico</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">554.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rudy Gay</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">552.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Patrick O'Bryant</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Bradley</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">551.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Paul Davis</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Michigan State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">546.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jared Dudley</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Boston College</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">542.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kyle Lowry</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Villanova</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">538.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Nate Robinson</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Washington</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">538</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rajon Rondo</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Kentucky</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">534.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Josh Childress</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Stanford</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">530</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ben Gordon</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">529.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Joakim Noah</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Florida</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">528.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kris Humphries</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Minnesota</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">527.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">LaMarcus Aldridge</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Texas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">524.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Deron Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Illinois</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">523.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">12</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jarrett Jack</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Georgia Tech</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">523.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jameer Nelson</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Saint Joseph's</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">522.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">13</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Charlie Villanueva</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">521.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">12</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Glen Davis</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">LSU</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">521</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kevin Martin</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Western Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">517.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Quincy Douby</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Rutgers</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">516.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">12</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Marcus Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">512.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">13</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Sean Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Boston College</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">511.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Andre Iguodala</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Arizona</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">509.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">14</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jeff Green</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Georgetown</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">505.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">15</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kyle Visser</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Wake Forest</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">503.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">16</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Herbert Hill</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Providence</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">503</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">13</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Randy Foye</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">502.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">17</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Javaris Crittenton</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Georgia Tech</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">492.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">18</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Wilson Chandler</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">DePaul</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">483.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">19</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">David Lee</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">482.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">19</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Julian Wright</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Kansas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">481.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">18</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">J.J. Redick</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">479.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">12</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Andre Emmett</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Texas Tech</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">472.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">20</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Daequan Cook</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Ohio State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">470</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">19</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rodney Carney</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">469.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">20</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Adam Morrison</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">466.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">21</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">D.J. Strawberry</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Maryland</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">465.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">22</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jason Smith</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Colorado State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">464.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">14</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kirk Snyde</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">464.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">23</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Alando Tucker</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Wisconsin</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">464.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">24</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Corey Brewer</td>  <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Florida</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">462.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">23</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Renaldo Balkman</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">458.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">25</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Daniel Gibson</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">456.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">15</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Chris Duhon</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">454.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">25</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kelenna Azubuike</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">454.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">27</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jordan Farmar</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">450</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">26</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Salim Stoudamire</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">449.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">27</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Francisco Garcia</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">448.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">25</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Al Thornton</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Florida State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">447.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">28</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Daniel Ewing</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">446.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">26</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Marcus Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Arizona</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">445.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">27</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Acie Law</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Texas A&M</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">445.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">30</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Chuck Hayes</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">443.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ronny Turiaf</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">442.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">28</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Aaron Gray</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Pittsburgh</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">440.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Paul Millsap</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">440</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">29</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Zabian Dowdell</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Virginia Tech</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">438.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">30</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Spencer Hawes</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Washington</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">433.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">21</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">David Harrison</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">432</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ryan Gomes</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">430.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Hakim Waric</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">427.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Morris Almond</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Rice</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">425.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Derrick Byars</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Vanderbilt</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">421.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Gabe Pruitt</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">USC</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">421</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Luther Head</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">419.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Josh Boone</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">414.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ike Diogu</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">402.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Antoine Wight</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">387.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Nick Young</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">USC</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">383.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Craig Smith</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">377.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">27</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Tony Allen</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">377</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Joey Graham</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">353.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Taurean Green</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Florida</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">350.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jason Maxiell</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">342.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Royal Ivey</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">341.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Arron Afflalo</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">UCLA</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">336.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ramon Sessions</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Nevada</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">334.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Linas Kleiza</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">308.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td align="center">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Hilton Armstrong</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">304.6</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Unless he's leaving out vast amounts of data, I think there's some merit there. Despite your complaints, are you saying you give no creedence to it whatsoever? Because the way I see it, I see very few guys in the lower echelons of that list who look worthy of lottery picks. I don't see any, actually.

In short, it gives me:
* A warning against guys who seem highly rated otherwise.
* More interest in guys who are highly rated here but appear lower rated otherwise.
* More faith in my own rating system, which also flags guys like Fazekas as interesting and guys like Hawes as iffy.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

johnston797 said:


> Also, Hollinger said he used 1/3 of your prior season (if you are not a freshman). Green was not nearly as good last year. 45% FG% 11.9ppg.


The 1/3 of the prior season thing seems quite arbitrary to me, which is one problem. Some of his stuff really is arbitrary. That doesn't matter if it's useful, but it leads one to wonder if it couldn't be made better


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

MikeDC said:


> Unless he's leaving out vast amounts of data, I think there's some merit there.


Of course there is a huge amount of data left out. He doesn't provide many players for the previous season. That demonstrates cherry picking.



> Despite your complaints, are you saying you give no creedence to it whatsoever? Because the way I see it, I see very few guys in the lower echelons of that list who look worthy of lottery picks. I don't see any, actually.


It is a data point and nothing more. I find it as valuable as I would find a mock draft from Scream A Smith.



> In short, it gives me:
> * A warning against guys who seem highly rated otherwise.
> * More interest in guys who are highly rated here but appear lower rated otherwise.
> * More faith in my own rating system, which also flags guys like Fazekas as interesting and guys like Hawes as iffy.


To me it demonstrates a lack of understanding of the college game and the vastly different situations that players are in. Often times the best player on a college team must play out of their NBA position in order for his team to win. Additionally, players alter their contributions to fit into a system. 

This is a data point if a team is flipping a coin between two players, but not something that should trump any traditional scouting methods.


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## The Krakken (Jul 17, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> Here's his entire list, sorted by his ranking:
> 
> <table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 306pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="408"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"> <col style="width: 89pt;" width="119"> <col style="width: 73pt;" width="97"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td id="_x0000_s1025" x:autofilter="all" x:autofilterrange="$A$1:$E$106" style="height: 14.25pt; width: 48pt;" align="center" height="19" width="64">Yr</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1026" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 48pt;" align="center" width="64">Yr.Rnk</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1027" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">PLAYER</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1028" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">SCHOOL</td> <td class="xl23" id="_x0000_s1029" x:autofilter="all" style="width: 48pt;" align="right" width="64">SCORE</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kevin Durant</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Texas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">870.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Tyrus Thomas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">LSU</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">756.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Chris Paul</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Wake Forest</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">705.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Marvin Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">697.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Sean May</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">690.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Greg Oden</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Ohio State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">667.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">1</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Luol Deng</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Duke</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">650.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rashad McCants</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">639.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Mike Conley Jr.</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Ohio State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">637.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Delonte West</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Saint Joseph's</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">626.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Devin Harris</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Wisconsin</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">614.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Thaddeus Young</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Georgia Tech</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">604.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Brandan Wright</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">601.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Al Horford</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Florida</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">601</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Nick Fazekas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Nevada</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">594.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">2</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Shelden Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Duke</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">583.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Andrew Bogut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Utah</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">579.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Channing Frye</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Arizona</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">579.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Emeka Okafor</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">579.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Josh McRoberts</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Duke</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">566.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Raymond Felton</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">North Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">562.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Chris Taft</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Pittsburgh</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">559.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Luke Jackson</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Oregon</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">558.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rodney Stuckey</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">E. Washington</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">557.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">3</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Brandon Roy</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Washington</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">557.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">4</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ronnie Brewer</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Arkansas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">555.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Danny Granger</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">New Mexico</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">554.4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">5</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rudy Gay</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">552.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Patrick O'Bryant</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Bradley</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">551.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Paul Davis</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Michigan State</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">546.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jared Dudley</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Boston College</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">542.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kyle Lowry</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Villanova</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">538.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Nate Robinson</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Washington</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">538</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Rajon Rondo</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Kentucky</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">534.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">6</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Josh Childress</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Stanford</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">530</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">7</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Ben Gordon</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">529.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Joakim Noah</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Florida</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">528.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">8</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kris Humphries</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Minnesota</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">527.6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">LaMarcus Aldridge</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Texas</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">524.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Deron Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Illinois</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">523.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">12</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jarrett Jack</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Georgia Tech</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">523.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">9</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jameer Nelson</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Saint Joseph's</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">522.2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2005</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">13</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Charlie Villanueva</td> <td>
> </td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">521.9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">12</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Glen Davis</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">LSU</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">521</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">10</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kevin Martin</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Western Carolina</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">517.7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Quincy Douby</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Rutgers</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">516.8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">12</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Marcus Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Connecticut</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">512.1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">13</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Sean Williams</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Boston College</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">511.3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2004</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">11</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Andre Iguodala</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Arizona</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">509.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">14</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Jeff Green</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Georgetown</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">505.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">15</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Kyle Visser</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Wake Forest</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">503.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2007</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="center" width="64">16</td> <td class="xl25" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Herbert Hill</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 73pt;" width="97">Providence</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">503</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;" height="19"> <td style="height: 14.25pt;" x:num="" align="center" height="19">2006</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="center">13</td> <td class="xl23" style="width: 89pt;" width="119">Randy Foye</td> <td>
> ...


SO are you saying that you would draft any of:

Rashad McCants
Delonte West
Raymond Felton
Rajon Rondo
Josh Childress

Over Ben Gordon and ANdre Igoudala?

Cause that's exactly what his rankings say you should do.


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## ace20004u (Jun 19, 2002)

your ignoring his own statements saying you should use your own scouting in conjunction with his list...


ACE


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## The Krakken (Jul 17, 2002)

I don't know. While I think blocked shots and rebounds are important, I can tell by looking at the list that it places a HUGE HUGE emphasis on rebounds and blocked shots. Steals too.


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## johnston797 (May 29, 2002)

The Krakken said:


> SO are you saying that you would draft any of:
> 
> Josh Childress
> 
> ...


Hollinger isn't saying to pick a guy that scores 1 point more out of more than 500 points.

He does basically say watch out for guys that score 100 points lower than their peers.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

The Krakken said:


> SO are you saying that you would draft any of:
> 
> Rashad McCants
> Delonte West
> ...


No, and that's obviously not what I said. 
The particular order of the rankings isn't important. What's important is identifying and taking note of major outlyers and figuring out what's going on with them.


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## thebizkit69u (Feb 12, 2003)

chifaninca said:


> TT was the best player from last year's draft........
> 
> That's all I needed to know.
> 
> ...


I agree 100%, I dont know why people on here keep bringing up these Hollinger stats. A couple of Weeks ago someone on here was posting a thread that based on Hollinger stats and stuff that TT was the best defensive player in the NBA... These stats mean nothing and should not be taken serious.


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## dougthonus (Jul 18, 2006)

> There wasn't close to enough material provided in that article to come to that conclusion. He cherry picked bust data which is why it looks so good at predicting busts.


How so, he had the numbers for every player in the draft for the past 5 years. How is that cherry picking? He named the most notable players drafted over that time that didn't make his top 12, and they were Kaman (16), Charlie Villaneuava (13), and Randy Foye (13). There have been no other players (unless Hollinger is lying, but I don't see any looking at his list either) that ranked low on his scores and went on to become good NBA players.

Now if he has data for 1990-2002 and that data completely contradicts the data he presented, then he could be cherry picking, but we don't really know that.



> The 1/3 of the prior season thing seems quite arbitrary to me, which is one problem. Some of his stuff really is arbitrary. That doesn't matter if it's useful, but it leads one to wonder if it couldn't be made better


I believe he only uses 1/3rd of the regular season if your previous season was better than your current season since many of the surprise guys were players who 'regressed' for a year. His point seemed to be that your best college year is a better indicator than your most recent college year perhaps (though for the vast majority of players their best and most recent college years are the same year).


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

Can someone with ESPN insider compare each player's Hollinger collegian score to his rookie year PER? That might be pretty useful.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

dougthonus said:


> How so, he had the numbers for every player in the draft for the past 5 years. How is that cherry picking? He named the most notable players drafted over that time that didn't make his top 12, and they were Kaman (16), Charlie Villaneuava (13), and Randy Foye (13). There have been no other players (unless Hollinger is lying, but I don't see any looking at his list either) that ranked low on his scores and went on to become good NBA players.
> 
> Now if he has data for 1990-2002 and that data completely contradicts the data he presented, then he could be cherry picking, but we don't really know that.


It is cherry picking because the data isn't presented in full for a critical review. Additionally, there is the subject of range of players. If one is to use this to look at the outliers, then the full information is necessary for each year.


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

Okay, gimme a couple of minutes. I'm going to use the PER data available on basketballreference.com. Their PER values are a little bit different than Hollinger's, but whatever.


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## Hustle (Dec 17, 2003)

I did find it interesting that there really were no potential allstars or even quality starters that had a score under 480(that being Tashuan Prince). Hawes, CBrewer, Al THorton, Law, and Jason SMith were all below that level.

There is no proven allstars under 523 (Deron Williams). (Add Jeff Green, Julian Wright and Javaris Crittenton to above lists)

Slow and/or short guys (especially with conditioning issues) seem to be overrated (despite red flags) with this stat(may, sweets, mccants, sheldon williams, luke jackson, khumphries, obryant, nrobinson, taft, and paul davis).

This stat may not be great but does seem to have legs to it. Maybe we should steer clear of Hawes, Brewer, and JSmith.


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)




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## yodurk (Sep 4, 2002)

Not sure I'm buying the practical value of this system.

Yeah, it does red flag guys who have a formula score outside of the top 12. But that's barely half of the issue when choosing a draft prospect.

Perhaps even more dangerous, it overinflates the value of many college players who suck in the NBA. If you really believe in this system, I'd say the odds of picking a bust are just as high as if you didn't use it. At best, the difference seems to be marginal.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

cpawfan said:


> It is cherry picking because the data isn't presented in full for a critical review. Additionally, there is the subject of range of players. If one is to use this to look at the outliers, then the full information is necessary for each year.


Well, we are talking about an article on ESPN, not a peer reviewed journal or anything


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

MikeDC said:


> Well, *we are talking about an article on ESPN*, not a peer reviewed journal or anything


The bolded part is pretty damning in its own right


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## transplant (Jul 31, 2002)

Wow! Some folks seem to be in a big hurry to discredit this thing.

I'm not a sports stats fanatic. It appears to me that Hollinger's draft stats focus on real pre-NBA performance, adjusting for age. It seems to have picked out some guys who were draft "sleepers." It also missed some. As a piece of information, among many pieces of information, I can see where it may be useful. In a case like Hawes, who had physical problems in his freshman season, you need to discount Hollinger's results...physical problems in a player's only college season, which didn't prevent the player from playing, is not something the system takes into account.

Anyone who has dealt with numbers as part of the decision-making process knows that you can't take any single measure as "gospel." The genius is still in the thinking and judgment.


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## Hodges (Apr 28, 2007)

cpawfan said:


> There wasn't close to enough material provided in that article to come to that conclusion. He cherry picked bust data which is why it looks so good at predicting busts.


Including the "Notables" (hand-picked by Hollinger):


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