# Lebron James will start to slow down...



## John (Jun 9, 2002)

Guys, Mark my words. Jumpshooting is not there, his game will slow down. One year older, less athleticism.


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Not this season, but he's right. He's peaked as an athlete, and will start slipping by 25. We typically think of players' primes being at around 30, but most players actually show little improvement after their early-to-mid 20's. This is especially the case for guys who rely heavily on their athleticism.


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## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

Even if he peaks at 25, why does that mean he'll start to slip? Also, how many players have there been out there who improved their fundamentals once their athleticism started to slip?

Im not too worried about the guy slipping anytime soon.


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## Drewbs (Feb 16, 2004)

Even if hes peaked as long as he keeps up his current rate of production, hes still one of the (if not the) best player in the league.

Besides, even if his athleticism slips, he will still be able to use his size to bull his way to the basket. The player with the biggest shot of slowing down in Wade.


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## John (Jun 9, 2002)

Lots of athleticism + getting heavier will do it guys. Not saying the NBA players are getting fat by design but they will. Look at Kobe / VC / T-mac. They all gotten some weight on as they get older.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Well he's 6-9, 260 if he slows down too much he can be a power forward.

If Lebron lost a step, he'd still be a step ahead of most of the league. Plus look at a guy like Richard Jefferson. He's not as fast as Lebron, but he can still get to the basket. So can Paul Pierce. When you're that big, getting to the basket, isn't about quickness, it's about strength. Once you get that shoulder in front, it's all over for the defender, because they can't get back around you.

Lebron's game is 90 percent power, 10 percent quickness already. And yes, T-Mac and Kobe look waaaay fat.

The closest comparison to Lebron's body type isn't those guys, it's Ron Artest, Ben Wallace, and Richard Jefferson. None of whom slowed down at 25.


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## CaliCool (Nov 5, 2004)

What sets him apart though even if he relies heavy on athleticism is that he is a solid play maker already.


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## Spaceman Spiff (Aug 2, 2006)

John said:


> Lots of athleticism + getting heavier will do it guys. Not saying the NBA players are getting fat by design but they will. Look at Kobe / VC / T-mac. They all gotten some weight on as they get older.


Not only that but putting on that weight will lead to injuries. Kobe put on weight when Shaq left and was injured for a good portion of that season. T-Mac put on weight and his back completely blew out. VC started getting bad knees. Baron Davis also had many knee injuries.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

CaliCool said:


> What sets him apart though even if he relies heavy on athleticism is that he is a solid play maker already.


Solid ? He is one of the best at that.


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

Most players hit their prime in their late twenties.Lebron doesn't really need to be more than a decent jumpshooter which he already is.A marginal improvement in his jumpshot makes him impossible to defend.


I really don't understand why he reaches his athletic peak and suddenly declines at the age of 25.Name a player this has happened to...Hotplate Williams doesn't count and neither does anyone who was never any good.


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## ChiBron (Jun 24, 2002)

More like late 20's then at 25 if LeBron's game stays at where it's currently at. Regardless of how dependant you are on your athleticism, nobody begins declining at 25 barring injury. I think LeBron will stay at his current level or slightly better for 3-4 more more years(he's only 23 right now!). But if he wants to remain the game's best when he's nearing 30 then he better work on his jumper, post-game and get lighter. Fact is though, few players improve much skills-wise from 25-29. So if LeBron remains the same player over the next 2 seasons, then he'll begin declining at a time when most players tend to play their best ball. He'll still most likely be Top 5-7, but just not the best or Top 3.

btw, who thinks players peak at 30?? 30 is more like the final year of player's prime. Majority play their best ball in their late 20's(27-29).


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

I think 27 is your athletic prime. That is in 4 years for LeBron. He will continue to dominate the NBA until his mid-30s.

All he needs to do is marginally imrpove his jump-shot and free throw shooting. He has all the other tools. Defense, court vision, play making ability, scoring, passing, great size, leadership, clutch, etc. 

He won't slow down.


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## bballlife (Oct 5, 2003)

Hakeem said:


> Not this season, but he's right. He's peaked as an athlete, and will start slipping by 25. We typically think of players' primes being at around 30, but most players actually show little improvement after their early-to-mid 20's. This is especially the case for guys who rely heavily on their athleticism.


Yes, history has shown us that most players peak athletically around 25. From that point, the decline starts. With Lebron, he is so athletic right now, that he may start to lose a little a couple years from now, but still be far ahead of most players athletically. 

If he was 30 today with the same skill level, and a decent dip in athleticism, I think we would see a big drop in his effectiveness. As of right now, his post and mid-range game need work. His jumper has plenty of room for improvement, and could get worse, ala Mcgrady, if he doesn't tighten up his mechanics.


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## LamarButler (Apr 16, 2005)

Even if he does start to slow down, he'll still be more athletic than most of the league.

He'll probably fix his mechanics on his jumpshot a little, improve his free throws, and develop a killer post game, seeing how he's improved season after season. Those things should turn him into a real complete player, and even more unstoppable than he already is, especially a post game.


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## Dre (Jun 20, 2003)

This thread is junk, but I haven't seen the fact that he's a gym rat mentioned in here. 

Most of the players that prematurely break down don't take care of their bodies...whereas Lebron looks like one of those WWE action figures.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Plus if Lebron ever gets a summer off to work on his post game, it's all over. There are a lot of power forwards who couldn't stop him in the post with his power and ability to finish with either hand. If he got that down, when he started to decline, he could be a power forward, similar to how Magic if he had played longer would have ended up as a 4 or 5.


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## Dornado (May 26, 2003)

There's just one problem with the original post.... you're assuming Lebron James is human...


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## someone (Jul 17, 2007)

Dornado said:


> There's just one problem with the original post.... you're assuming Lebron James is human...


And the fact that David Stern would put all of Lebron's opponents in wheelchairs before this even happened...


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## Brandname (May 24, 2006)

Welcome back John!


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Diable said:


> I really don't understand why he reaches his athletic peak and suddenly declines at the age of 25.Name a player this has happened to...Hotplate Williams doesn't count and neither does anyone who was never any good.


It is a fact that human beings start to decline athletically by 25. Ask your doctor. Or look at the 100 m world record-breakers. I think something like 13 of the past 16 holders of the world record achieved their fastest times at the age of 25 or younger, with most being 23 or less. This in a sport in which times have improved over the years more so than in any other. It's unlikely that in basketball you'd see a change in training methods and nutrition have a material impact over the span of a single player's career.

Big men tend to peak late, but few others show much improvement after 25. Kobe, Bird... that's all I can think of of the big names. If you look at it statistically, there's little change in average PERs from 23-29, with 26 being the best age, marginally.

Also, it may not be a sudden drop in athleticism, as it was with McGrady. But it will be a decline, and if he doesn't add something else significant (which, historically, is very rare at that age), there will be some deterioration in his game.


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## Vuchato (Jan 14, 2006)

LeBrons already like 40, His athleticism has lasted this long, I don't see why it won't last longer.


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## Fray (Dec 19, 2005)

LeBron will slow down eventually just like everybody else but if you meant next season then you're crazy.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Hakeem said:


> Also, it may not be a sudden drop in athleticism, as it was with McGrady. But it will be a decline, and if he doesn't add something else significant (which, historically, is very rare at that age), there will be some deterioration in his game.


OH NOES!!! Well it's a good thing Lebron still has a few years left in him before he has to retire at the ripe old age of 25.

Imagine if he had gone to college and played four years. His prime would already almost be over!


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

futuristxen said:


> OH NOES!!! Well it's a good thing Lebron still has a few years left in him before he has to retire at the ripe old age of 25.


Considering his heavy workload in the summers, it may be 24.


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## Redeemed (Feb 2, 2008)

I don't see his statistical production staying at this level. Yeah he can do it right now, but he needs help. He is being asked to do way too much (his team sucks) and that only hurts him. You can't ask a guy to pull nearly ten boards every game along with mid thirties on points and expect them to do it for 10+ years. Not in this NBA, maybe 20-30 years ago. But he needs a team around him that can help or he will get worn out quick.


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## 77AJ (Feb 16, 2005)

LeBron is going to dominate in the same fashion he did last year for at least two more seasons, because the Cavs won't ever amount to squat. Then once LBJ leaves the Cavs, and get's in a better hoops city, and has a better cast of teammates around him, his numbers will decline, but his chances to win an NBA title will sky rocket. I'll take a guess and say LeBrons numbers will be around Grant HIll status before Grant was injured once LeBron is on a new team with better teammates.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Lebron's efficiency numbers would sky rocket if he was on even a moderately competent offensive team, let alone a good one. Which isn't to say there isn't offensive talent on the Cavs. But that the system they run, effectively asks Lebron to beat five people every time down the court. If the Cavs just had spacing, it would be a huge help.


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Who knows with Lebron? He's a phyiscal freak and we frankly don't exactlly know how much effort he puts into taking care of himself.

Looking at PER of some guys with somewhat similar height and sizes:
Barkley: best years 4 seasons btw ages 24-27. Should be noted after his peak he was still a very productive player till the year he retired. Barkley was also noted for his hard work either
Magic: his best years was actually later age 27-3
Worthy (from a physical standpoint while quite not as big Worthy was similar to Lebron in that he was a very large SF who relied on athleticism) his best years were from age 24-29.

"Athletic" peak doesn't necessarily equal best basketball years as basketball is a much more complicated game then just a deadline sprint. Simply seeing defenses over time makes one possibly a more effective player even if you lose a half an inch on the vertical. Plus will skipping college wear this straight to the pros out sooner? Have no idea but it surely hasn't seemed to harm Kobe or KG too much at all so far


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## ShaqAttack3234 (Jul 11, 2008)

Lebron's skills also should improve and he's what 6'8" or 6'9" and 260? What perimeter player is big/strong enough to guard him and what big man is quick enough to guard him?

One thing I am worried about though is injuries. He entered the league at 18, he carries 260 pounds, his jumping and dunking must do some damage to his knees, he's averaged 41.1 minutes per game for his career in the regular season(44.5 in the playoffs), he takes a lot of contact and he's played for team USA since 2004. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes injury prone soon.


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> Looking at PER of some guys with somewhat similar height and sizes:
> Barkley: best years 4 seasons btw ages 24-27. Should be noted after his peak he was still a very productive player till the year he retired. Barkley was also noted for his hard work either
> Magic: his best years was actually later age 27-3
> Worthy (from a physical standpoint while quite not as big Worthy was similar to Lebron in that he was a very large SF who relied on athleticism) his best years were from age 24-29.


Can't say I've seen much of a young Magic, but was he really a better player in his late 20s than earlier in his career? Or was his increased production mostly the result of getting the chance to play a more dominant role in the offense with Kareem fading? 
Because his PER in his second season was the same as it was during the prime you specified. And that was the only season until that prime in which the Lakers weren't a great team (ie he probably didn't have as many good teammates that year, meaning a greater role in the offense for him).


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## Avalanche (Nov 17, 2005)

If the Jumpshot everyone calls for never arrives, Bron will move over and be more of a power forward, which he will also excel at

i am talking like age 28-29 when he actually does start to slow down somewhat


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Also, it may not be a large decrease in vertical leap, but it can have a significant effect in terms of running and jumping and executing moves 40 mins a night for 82 games. I mean, I'm sure Tracy McGrady could right now still perform some pretty spectacular dunks. But there isn't a whole lot of physical space between getting a clean shot off and getting your shot blocked.


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## dwade3 (Sep 12, 2005)

MrJayremmie said:


> I think 27 is your athletic prime. That is in 4 years for LeBron. He will continue to dominate the NBA until his mid-30s.
> 
> All he needs to do is marginally imrpove his jump-shot and free throw shooting. He has all the other tools. *Defense*, court vision, play making ability, scoring, passing, great size, leadership, clutch, etc.
> 
> He won't slow down.


defense? he hardly slowed down Pierce, he is not on the same level defensively (meaning not just passing lanes) as Kobe and Wade..........he will not slow down anytime soon....i hate to admit it but just like Duncan, Shaq and Jordan before him, he is a player that was pre-ordained in NBA royalty - destined to win a title.......although remember it took Shaq 4 years to get back to the finals wen he was in his real prime....


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

LeBron is better defensively than Wade and Kobe. Kobe is talked about as a good defender because his reputation. when they play each other LeBron guards Kobe in crucial times. LeBron takes the other teams best player on defense all the time, while stil putting alot into the offensive end.

If you don't think LeBron is a good defender you have not watched him play recently (yes he wasn't that good whne he entered the league, i'll admit that).


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## Plastic Man (Nov 8, 2004)

How LeBron James' defense has gone from severely overlooked and underrated (a couple months ago it seemed like only Cavs fans have noticed his improvement) to so ridiculously overrated is beyond me. I guess if you repeat something for a longer period of time it will become a true fact.

Anyway I don't see him slowing down any time soone. He is one of the most athletically gifted players in recent memory and really seems like he takes very good care of his body.


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## unluckyseventeen (Feb 5, 2006)

Isn't saying "player X will decline - not now but they will" kind of stating the obvious?

Of course he is going to decline. Every player will get older and slower and eventually be unfit to play in the NBA.


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## King George (Jun 21, 2003)

Iverson still going strong


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## The Enigma (May 10, 2003)

LeBron will start to slow down athletically. However, there are so many little things he can improve on in his game that I do not even believe we have seen the best of him, much less the fall. If LeBron never really develops an outstanding jump shot that does not necessarily mean he will fade. I foresee the future of his game as primarily a low post small forward/ off the dribble perimeter power forward. This will create great problems for opposing defenses because he will still be the one initiating his team’s half court sets from either forward spot (point-forward).

From the early to late twenties what most dedicated ball players lose in athleticism they more then make up for in experience and understanding on how best to play the game in order to help their team win.

-------

If what you say about LeBron is true (which I do not believe that it is) Chris Paul is doomed. Once he hits 25 and cannot consistently break down defenses, he will be forced to rely on outside jump shots. He will be D-League quality at that point. 

That estimation is as ridiculous (though plausible) as yours of LeBron James.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

King George said:


> Iverson still going strong


Remember he was supposed to slow down 8 years ago. People kept saying "his body will never hold up, he won't be able to drive past people forever"...and yet here we are. And this is the guy who said "PRACTICE?!"

So you just never know.


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## 77AJ (Feb 16, 2005)

futuristxen said:


> Remember he was supposed to slow down 8 years ago. People kept saying "his body will never hold up, he won't be able to drive past people forever"...and yet here we are. And this is the guy who said "PRACTICE?!"
> 
> So you just never know.


Awesome! AI defies all makes of athletes. The guy is an incredible athlete. AI was an amazing high school football player, in some peoples opinion the best in HS ever. Nobody not LeBron, etc come close to what AI is and will always be in terms of being one of if not the most gifted athlete of all time. Especially when you start taking into consideration his stature in size compared to most of his peers.

Do your self a favor if you haven't already, Check the video of AI playing football in HS I'm posting.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hCAkVvNFk-0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hCAkVvNFk-0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>


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## Dre (Jun 20, 2003)

Maybe it's scientific that players' physically decline at 25, but few players have their best basketball seasons at that age. 

The majority of players have their best years between 26-29.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

dwade3 said:


> defense? he hardly slowed down Pierce, he is not on the same level defensively (meaning not just passing lanes) as Kobe and Wade.
> ..


Qué? I have no idea what Eastern Conference semis series you were watching, but when I was watching my team eke out a victory over their toughest opponent, Pierce was only able to average 19.4 points on an aFG% of .454. LeBron did a _hell_ of a job on Pierce. Just like Pierce did on LeBron.


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Hakeem said:


> Can't say I've seen much of a young Magic, but was he really a better player in his late 20s than earlier in his career? Or was his increased production mostly the result of getting the chance to play a more dominant role in the offense with Kareem fading?
> Because his PER in his second season was the same as it was during the prime you specified. And that was the only season until that prime in which the Lakers weren't a great team (ie he probably didn't have as many good teammates that year, meaning a greater role in the offense for him).


I'm not a big believer in the workload analogy and PER having a relationship that is has a strong correlation plus a low degree of volatility 
For example with the Celtics this year, KG PER's went up while Pierces and Allen's went down.
Barkely PER went up the year he went to Phoenix even though they had a vastly better team then Philly from the previous year.
There are examples going the other way (Aguirre to Detroit for example ) but I think this going to be very individual

In any rate IMO Magic was a far better player in the late 80's (more constent 3 point shot, better FT shooter, most post moves: i.e. the baby hook).


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> I'm not a big believer in the workload analogy and PER having a relationship that is has a strong correlation plus a low degree of volatility
> For example with the Celtics this year, KG PER's went up while Pierces and Allen's went down.
> Barkely PER went up the year he went to Phoenix even though they had a vastly better team then Philly from the previous year.
> There are examples going the other way (Aguirre to Detroit for example ) but I think this going to be very individual


Which goes back to discussions we've had before about how a post player will typically put up better numbers with better teammates, while a perimeter player's production will probably go the other way. KG and Barkley are post players. Pierce, Allen and Aguirre were/are largely perimeter players. Similar thing with Shaq (numbers better with better quality help) and Kobe (numbers worse with better help), and many others.

And it seems right intuitively. Big men really need spacing to work well. The only way they get that is to play with other quality scorers. The also need to be set up well in the post, so guys who can make that post entry pass are required too. Furthermore, big men are usually the first options on offense regardless of who they play with.

Perimeter players, on the other hand, usually need the ball in their hands a lot to put up the big numbers. Playing with better teammates generally means they get to control the ball less. If they play with a low post scorer, it not only means they will often become the second option, but it takes away that aspect of their game too.


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

The Enigma said:


> If what you say about LeBron is true (which I do not believe that it is) Chris Paul is doomed. Once he hits 25 and cannot consistently break down defenses, he will be forced to rely on outside jump shots. He will be D-League quality at that point.
> 
> That estimation is as ridiculous (though plausible) as yours of LeBron James.


No. Barring injury, it will almost certainly be only a gradual decline.


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

unluckyseventeen said:


> Isn't saying "player X will decline - not now but they will" kind of stating the obvious?
> 
> Of course he is going to decline. Every player will get older and slower and eventually be unfit to play in the NBA.


Missing the point. The whole thing is about whether he will decline earlier than most people expect. i.e. 26 vs 30.


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Dre™ said:


> Maybe it's scientific that players' physically decline at 25, but few players have their best basketball seasons at that age.
> 
> The majority of players have their best years between 26-29.


Again, statistically it's 25-27, including big men, who do appear to peak late. That doesn't take into account defense, which isn't captured well by PER. But from observation most players play their best defense before their late 20s. And that goes for big men, too.


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Hakeem said:


> Which goes back to discussions we've had before about how a post player will typically put up better numbers with better teammates, while a perimeter player's production will probably go the other way. KG and Barkley are post players. Pierce, Allen and Aguirre were/are largely perimeter players. Similar thing with Shaq (numbers better with better quality help) and Kobe (numbers worse with better help), and many others.
> 
> And it seems right intuitively. Big men really need spacing to work well. The only way they get that is to play with other quality scorers. The also need to be set up well in the post, so guys who can make that post entry pass are required too. Furthermore, big men are usually the first options on offense regardless of who they play with.
> 
> Perimeter players, on the other hand, usually need the ball in their hands a lot to put up the big numbers. Playing with better teammates generally means they get to control the ball less. If they play with a low post scorer, it not only means they will often become the second option, but it takes away that aspect of their game too.


Lebron isn't like any perimeter player I've seen. When his team has shown the ability to get the ball in the low post he's been devastating. He's much more like Magic in this sense: it's kinda of shocking to see old games on NBA classis of Magic in the late stages of his career. He initiated a ton of offense as a post player (should note as well as Kareem declined guys liek Scott and Worthy became very good players which again points to PER analogy not quite owrking unless you take a lot of other factors into account)


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Hakeem said:


> Again, *statistically it's 25-27,* including big men, who do appear to peak late. That doesn't take into account defense, which isn't captured well by PER. But from observation most players play their best defense before their late 20s. And that goes for big men, too.


I need to see the raw data before I agree with this because of even if the median is right I think we have to look at standard error here. Just going thru star SF/SG's since the 80's to compare Lebron with

Jordan best years were from 25-27 but he still put monster levels the two years after this. Barkley's and Grant Hill also fell in this range of 25-27

On the other hand Magic, Bird, Kobe, Drexler. Dr. J (discounting ABA years), Wilkins had there best statiscal seasons move back to at least age 29 or older.

Then you have aberrations like the cousins Tmac and Vince who peaked very early. These two clearly have had a lot more health concerns then the players I listed before (you can throw Grant Hill in there as well). It seems if players stay healhty there peaks tend more to the age 29 or even 30 range


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> Lebron isn't like any perimeter player I've seen. When his team has shown the ability to get the ball in the low post he's been devastating. He's much more like Magic in this sense: it's kinda of shocking to see old games on NBA classis of Magic in the late stages of his career. He initiated a ton of offense as a post player (should note as well as Kareem declined guys liek Scott and Worthy became very good players which again points to PER analogy not quite owrking unless you take a lot of other factors into account)


I don't watch Lebron as much as you do, but I definitely wouldn't call him "devastating" in the post. He doesn't seem to play there very much at all. Oviously if he happens to have deep position they're going to throw it to him in that instance and he's going to look good. But, I mean, in the '91 WCF it seemed Magic was taking on Drexler in the post every time down. 

LeBron could develop this and thus find a way to remain effective once he starts to slip athletically. Drexler himself is another big guard who was great at it. But it's a bit of a reach to just assume LeBron will develop a post game, isn't it?

Btw, while Worthy stepped up as Kareem declined, Magic was the clear cut number one option on offense in that period. While earlier it was definitely Kareem, even if the supporting cast was worse that one season early on. In that whole middle period of Magic's career where he was producing slightly but significantly less, not only was Kareem the go-to guy, but his other teammates were very good too.


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> I need to see the raw data before I agree with this because of even if the median is right I think we have to look at standard error here. Just going thru star SF/SG's since the 80's to compare Lebron with
> 
> Jordan best years were from 25-27 but he still put monster levels the two years after this. Barkley's and Grant Hill also fell in this range of 25-27
> 
> ...


When I say "statistically", I'm only going off that graph that has been posted here several times showing median PERs by age. Which I don't have but may try to dig up a bit later.

Also, Jordan's best statistical season was at 24. This was probably right at or only marginally before his defensive peak too. 

Drexler's best statistical season was at 25. Though he was virtually the same player from 25-29.

I haven't really bought into the whole "Kobe has taken it to another level this season" thing. I really don't think he has improved materially as a player since 2003. He was amazing that year, and he put up the second-best PER of his career playing with Shaq. His playmaking may have improved slightly (though he was a really good passer back then too), but his defense has worsened (though it did pick up again this year). He was 24 then.

Aguirre was 24 when he had his best PER. Grant Hill was 24. Mullin was 26. Sprewell was 26. Jim Jackson was 24. Stackhouse was 26. Moncrief, a smaller guy who played big, peaked statistically at 25. Gervin was 25. Peja and Larry Johnson were both 26, though both did have injuries a couple of years later. Ron Artest was really at his best at 24, in Indiana, putting up a similar PER to now while playing second fiddle and playing better defense. 

And if we broaden it to include all perimeter players, there is a graveyard of star point guards who peaked early.

One thing does seem to emerge, though: most of the guys who peaked late either came to rely relatively heavily on their post games (e.g. Bird, Magic, Nique, Worthy, Pierce to a lesser extent) or never relied a great deal on their athleticism for their success (e.g. Dantley, English, Pierce, Bird). And if you look at these six guys, four of them were very big/strong for their positions, and could finish tremendously well with contact. Like LeBron.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Hakeem said:


> But, I mean, in the '91 WCF it seemed Magic was taking on Drexler in the post every time down.


Magic was almost a ten year vet by 91, no? Plus the rules were diffrent back then. Because of Charles Barkley, you aren't allowed to just back someone down from half court. Can you imagine Carmelo Anthony if they let you do that? Remember Barkley used to just get the ball and back a guy down from the 3 point line into the paint, and then score? You're not allowed to do that anymore. I've actually seen Lebron whistled for that violation a few times.


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## Hyperion (Dec 5, 2006)

This is the dumbest thread ever. LBJ will slow down from only two things:

Old age (40 years old at minimum) and a silver, hollow-tipped 20mm depleted uranium bullet.


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## HB (May 1, 2004)

John said:


> Guys, Mark my words. Jumpshooting is not there, his game will slow down. One year older, less athleticism.


John I didnt know you were posting again on here. Welcome back.

Now regarding this thread you started, how can you even think of such awful thoughts, knowing darn well that Bron is VC's only chance of getting a title. You better hope he doesnt slow down.


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Hakeem said:


> Also, Jordan's _best statistical season was at 24_. This was probably right at or only marginally before his defensive peak too.
> 
> Drexler's best statistical season was at 25. Though he was virtually the same player from 25-29.


Come on now Jordan's peaks years were the following: 31.7, 31.1, 31.2, 31.6. differences of 0.1 in PER are insignficant margins.



> I haven't really bought into the whole "Kobe has taken it to another level this season" thing. I really don't think he has improved materially as a player since 2003. He was amazing that year, and he put up the second-best PER of his career playing with Shaq. His playmaking may have improved slightly (though he was a really good passer back then too), but his defense has worsened (though it did pick up again this year). He was 24 then.


He was certainly a better team player this year then year's past at least post-Shaq. :biggrin:



> Aguirre was 24 when he had his best PER. *Grant Hill was 24*. Mullin was 26. Sprewell was 26. *Jim Jackson was 24*. Stackhouse was 26. Moncrief, a smaller guy who played big, peaked statistically at 25. Gervin was 25. *Peja and Larry Johnson* were both 26, though both did have injuries a couple of years later. Ron Artest was really at his best at 24, in Indiana, putting up a similar PER to now while playing second fiddle and playing better defense.


I bolded all the players who got hurt: I've already stated that it's important not only to look at the median but also the variance. A lot of variance to the lower end of the spectrum of age peak seems to be to the one who get injured (not surprisingly). In other words, if a player is able to stay healthy his best year tend to last longer

I'd also point out that Aguirre is the one player whose PER was clearly affecting by switching teams. He went from being a main gun to one being just another guy on arguably one of the best teams in history.



> And if we broaden it to include all perimeter players, there is a graveyard of star point guards who peaked early.


Not sure how Lebron fits in with these players but there are bevy of PG's who seem to do real well even into the 30's (Nash, Kidd, Payton)



> One thing does seem to emerge, though: most of the guys who peaked late either came to rely relatively heavily on their post games (e.g. Bird, Magic, Nique, Worthy, Pierce to a lesser extent) or never relied a great deal on their athleticism for their success (e.g. Dantley, English, Pierce, Bird). And if you look at these six guys, four of them were very big/strong for their positions, and could finish tremendously well with contact. Like LeBron.


While agree Lebron doesn't use his post game enough now. I don't see why he can't or wouldn't develop it. Magic developed the baby hook later in his career, Worthy the turnaround jumper towards the end of his career


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

futuristxen said:


> Magic was almost a ten year vet by 91, no? Plus the rules were diffrent back then. Because of Charles Barkley, you aren't allowed to just back someone down from half court. Can you imagine Carmelo Anthony if they let you do that? Remember Barkley used to just get the ball and back a guy down from the 3 point line into the paint, and then score? You're not allowed to do that anymore. I've actually seen Lebron whistled for that violation a few times.


That's pretty funny rule: even if you're not actively backing your opponent but are protecting the ball with your back and dribbling you have a 5 second count to contend with


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> Come on now Jordan's peaks years were the following: 31.7, 31.1, 31.2, 31.6. differences of 0.1 in PER are insignficant margins.


Yeah, you're right. But Jordan is one of those guys who changed his game significantly to adapt to his noticeably deteriorating athleticism. That is pretty rare. Though perhaps not quite as rare among transcendent players.



> I bolded all the players who got hurt: I've already stated that it's important not only to look at the median but also the variance. A lot of variance to the lower end of the spectrum of age peak seems to be to the one who get injured (not surprisingly). In other words, if a player is able to stay healthy his best year tend to last longer


Grant Hill and Jim Jackson each got hurt four years after their best statistical season. 



> I'd also point out that Aguirre is the one player whose PER was clearly affecting by switching teams. He went from being a main gun to one being just another guy on arguably one of the best teams in history.


Aguirre played 4.5 more seasons before being traded to Detroit. He never did better statistically than that season when he was 24.

Btw, it may be a little early, but even Carmelo Anthony has added little to his game since the age of 21.



> While agree Lebron doesn't use his post game enough now. I don't see why he can't or wouldn't develop it. Magic developed the baby hook later in his career, Worthy the turnaround jumper towards the end of his career


I think it's rare that players develop an almost entirely new aspect to their games. We always hear about how great players add something new every summer. But I think for the majority it's more fine tuning than any sort of bolt on.


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## Krenzel16 (Jul 9, 2008)

Have we ever seen a specimen like LeBron in the NBA? The dude is an absolute monster, he's like no one we've seen before. There are great athletes in the NBA, don't get me wrong, but LeBron's arguably the best athlete in the entire world. Honestly, when projecting LeBron's progression, I take little notice in other player's past for most of his attributes because he's at a level physically that no one else has ever been at. I'm not saying he's even the best player in the NBA but the last thing I would worry about is his body. If he ever learns a jump shot, it adds even longer to his longevity. He takes a beating with his style of play, however, he can take that. He'll eventually start to slow down, one day, but I still don't think we've seen the best of LeBron yet, and that's scary for the NBA. If we can only get some around him who is developed or isn't declining....


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## ShaqAttack3234 (Jul 11, 2008)

Krenzel16 said:


> Have we ever seen a specimen like LeBron in the NBA? The dude is an absolute monster, he's like no one we've seen before.


I think Shaq may have been even more of a once in a lifetime player.

At 5-6 inches taller than Lebron he had a 36 inch vertical, the speed to outrun everyone on the break, his ideal weight was 340 pounds, his footwork was among the best we've ever seen from a big man, very few 7 footers have ever been better ball handlers and Shaq was the strongest player of all-time and able to bench press 465 pounds.

Shaq's amazing footwork and quickness.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7vToTwCs-0k

Shaq starting and finishing the break in the 2001 Western Conference Finals.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=SA41UeRXWPY

Shaq doing the same thing in 1999
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZU3SpoF_Irs

Shaq's passing ability
http://youtube.com/watch?v=oRNgqVYd1HQ

Shaq throws down a 360 dunk
http://youtube.com/watch?v=sFjzKLS45Zw

Shaq's crossover
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gohDi3Nb1w

Shaq's crossover again but he did it this time at 382 pounds.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gstsY7mp8tY

Shaq at about 390 pounds goes coast to coast for the dunk.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XY1pAYxuqU

At the 1992 pre-draft camp physicians couldn't believe how big of a physical freak Shaq was.

He measured 7'1" in socks, weighed 303 pounds, had 12.2% body fat, a 36 inch vertical and a 7'7" wingspan.

How many legit 7 footers could run the floor like Shaq? Shaq being that athletic at 340 pounds is one thing but even when he got over 380 pounds he was still one of the 3 most athletic big men in the league.


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Hakeem said:


> Yeah, you're right. But Jordan is one of those guys who changed his game significantly to adapt to his noticeably deteriorating athleticism. That is pretty rare. Though perhaps not quite as rare among transcendent players.


I'm not really sure I agree with this. Jordan was pretty much the same player until first retirement. An unbelievable slasher/finisher who was also a solid enough midrang jumpshooter which made it impossible to just lay off him

He really changed his game after the first retirement when he started going to the post game with that first turnaround jumper. Still an amazingly effective player but clearly different and not quite as brilliant as his earlier years.



> Grant Hill and Jim Jackson each got hurt four years after their best statistical season.
> 
> Aguirre played 4.5 more seasons before being traded to Detroit. He never did better statistically than that season when he was 24.


Huh?
Jackson had that horrible ankle injury _during _his best stastical season. He only played 51 games the year he was putting up big numbners: he was never the same after that

Again I disagree for similar reasons to Jordan with Hill. Hill had pretty clearly his second best statiscal year at age 27 the year he got hurt. He was also hurt the year before at age 26. Aguirre the same thing: the two years before he was traded was his second and third best statiscal year. This is just not valid reasoning IMHO the variance btw these seasons are just not great.



> I think it's rare that players develop an almost entirely new aspect to their games. We always hear about how great players add something new every summer. But I think for the majority it's more fine tuning than any sort of bolt on.


I think clearly Jordan and Magic changed there games as they got older (I'd argue we also see that with guys like well Hakeem  - clearly a lot different post player then when he was younger). Maybe that is where they are in the history of the game and others don't rise to that level? Along with health of course


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## EGarrett (Aug 12, 2002)

John said:


> Guys, Mark my words. Jumpshooting is not there, his game will slow down. One year older, less athleticism.


He's 23 years old. He could've been drafted THIS YEAR. Please pass the ganja and sober up.


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## reHEATed (Jun 29, 2003)

I think he needs to start taking summers off after this year.....

he is young though. Still what, 24? He is years away from his prime. His game wont slow down


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

Pioneer10 said:


> I'm not really sure I agree with this. Jordan was pretty much the same player until first retirement. An unbelievable slasher/finisher who was also a solid enough midrang jumpshooter which made it impossible to just lay off him


I think first threepeat Jordan was significantly different to '80s Jordan. '80s Jordan shot fewer jumpers, attacked the rim far more frequently and aggressively, and controlled the ball more. I think Dwyane Wade is similar to the early '90s Jordan, whereas we haven't seen anyone like '80s MJ.



> Huh?
> Jackson had that horrible ankle injury _during _his best stastical season. He only played 51 games the year he was putting up big numbners: he was never the same after that


Completely forgot about that, and didn't notice the 51-game season when I checked basketball-reference. I was thinking of his multiple injuries when he was in Portland, years later.



> Again I disagree for similar reasons to Jordan with Hill. Hill had pretty clearly his second best statiscal year at age 27 the year he got hurt. He was also hurt the year before at age 26. Aguirre the same thing: the two years before he was traded was his second and third best statiscal year. This is just not valid reasoning IMHO the variance btw these seasons are just not great.


Grant Hill didn't miss any games at age 26. I don't remember the injury. Sure it was that year?
But 24 was clearly his best statistical year. He had nearly three full seasons to beat that PER. Aguirre, too, had easily the best PER of his career at 24. It was a difference of 1.4 between that and his second-best season. 

I don't see why it isn't valid reasoning. All these guys had their single best statistical seasons by 26. They may have had seasons that were almost as good from 27-29, but the point isn't that players drop off suddenly after their peak. It's that they need to add something significant to their games after 25-26 in order to remain as effective despite the fading athleticism. Otherwise they gradually start to get worse.



> I think clearly Jordan and Magic changed there games as they got older (I'd argue we also see that with guys like well Hakeem  - clearly a lot different post player then when he was younger). Maybe that is where they are in the history of the game and others don't rise to that level? Along with health of course


Jordan and Magic are good examples. I wouldn't say Hakeem in the championship years was very different to Hakeem in the late '80s, though. Improved his ball-handling, was able to step back a couple of feet further, didn't crash the offensive boards with such abandon... But I think it was more refining his game than adding anything very new. Similar thing with Bird, though I haven't seen a whole lot of him when he was young. He seemed to just keep fine-tuning, adding a wrinkle every couple of years, but without really changing his game.

The fine tuning isn't rare. But I think after their mid-20s most of these guys are playing catch up with their bodies. Eventually it becomes harder to find ways to improve, and the body starts wearing down more rapidly.


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Hakeem said:


> I think first threepeat Jordan was significantly different to '80s Jordan. '80s Jordan shot fewer jumpers, attacked the rim far more frequently and aggressively, and controlled the ball more. I think Dwyane Wade is similar to the early '90s Jordan, whereas we haven't seen anyone like '80s MJ.


He also didn't handle the ball as much secondary to having Pippen become the point forward more then anything. He was essentially the same player who was slightly less prolific. Complete contrast though was the post-retirement Jordan



> Grant Hill didn't miss any games at age 26. I don't remember the injury. Sure it was that year?


Oops my bad there: forgot about the strike season when looking at games played


> But 24 was clearly his best statistical year. He had nearly three full seasons to beat that PER. Aguirre, too, had easily the best PER of his career at 24. It was a difference of 1.4 between that and his second-best season.
> 
> I don't see why it isn't valid reasoning. All these guys had their single best statistical seasons by 26. They may have had seasons that were almost as good from 27-29, but the point isn't that players drop off suddenly after their peak. It's that they need to add something significant to their games after 25-26 in order to remain as effective despite the fading athleticism. Otherwise they gradually start to get worse.


Why I'm disagreeing with this is there are other players who did have there best statiscal seasons at later years (i.e. Magic, Bird, and teh other I pointed out before). You can't simply ignore those. By my count well over 50% of the player who had there best statiscal years on lower range had really significant injury issues. So if healthy this extropolation doesn't work. One can argue back that you should take injuries into account which is fair enough but injuries kind of negate the idea of peak basketball age in my book when comparing healthy players.



> Jordan and Magic are good examples. I wouldn't say Hakeem in the championship years was very different to Hakeem in the late '80s, though. Improved his ball-handling, was able to step back a couple of feet further, didn't crash the offensive boards with such abandon... But I think it was more refining his game than adding anything very new. Similar thing with Bird, though I haven't seen a whole lot of him when he was young. He seemed to just keep fine-tuning, adding a wrinkle every couple of years, but without really changing his game.


Hakeem's post moves were more then just refined in my book but you obviously watched him more then I did. I think Bird was one of those guy when watching him was that even though he wasn't athletic in the traditional sense of big verticals was he was very agile for a guy his size. I agree his game didn't go thru the drastic change of Jordan and Magic. One can probably throw Kobe into the Bird category as well as he has really refined his post game thru the years although even younger he did go in the post as well

There are also guy like Michael Redd who go thru some drastic changes: Redd was a slasher in college with a so so jumpshot who transformed himself to make it in teh NBA: his best year so far was age 27


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## Hakeem (Aug 12, 2004)

> By my count well over 50% of the player who had there best statiscal years on lower range had really significant injury issues. So if healthy this extropolation doesn't work. One can argue back that you should take injuries into account which is fair enough but injuries kind of negate the idea of peak basketball age in my book when comparing healthy players.


Only Peja, Larry Johnson and Jim Jackson had injuries. 

Aguirre, Moncrief, Hill, Mullin, Sprewell, Stackhouse, Gervin, Artest, Carmelo are all guys I mentioned who peaked early and didn't get injured very soon after their best seasons.

And that's leaving out T-Mac and Vince. McGrady went two seasons after that season in 2003 before facing a major injury. All his other injuries during his prime were relatively minor and unlikely to have affected his game significantly. He sat out for back spasms even during that one great year.

Vince did get injured in the season following his best, but that was during the season, and his play up to that point was considerably worse than in the two years before, and was in line with his performance over the remainder of his career.

Thinking of other good/excellent shooting guards and small forwards off the top of my head and checking basketball-reference, Dennis Johnson, Lamar Odom, World B Free, Alvin Robertson, Terry Cummings (pretty sure he did play some SF), Otis Birdsong, Doc Rivers, Dan Majerle, Xavier McDaniel, Rolando Blackman, Jim Paxson, Reggie Miller, Reggie Theus, Kiki Vandeweghe, Walter Davis, Marques Johnson, Kelly Tripucka and Hersey Hawkins all peaked at or before 26. That's 18 guys.

In those searches I only found Dale Ellis, Jalen Rose, Tom Chambers, Shawn Marion, Jeff Malone, Calvin Natt, Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Nick Anderson, Ricky Pierce and Joe Dumars to have peaked after that. 11 players.

So, leaving out Jordan, Kobe and Drexler, who didn't get any better or worse after 26, and the injured Peja-LJ-JJ trio, we've found 29 players who peaked early and 19 who didn't. 



> Hakeem's post moves were more then just refined in my book but you obviously watched him more then I did.


It was basically the face-up game and some variations to his back-to-the-basket moves. But if you watch some of his games as far back as '86 you'd be surprised at how similar his offensive game was. Dream Shake was used frequently back then, only it probably wasn't called that.


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## John (Jun 9, 2002)

Pump!!!


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Ask Carlos Boozer about it


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## John (Jun 9, 2002)

futuristxen said:


> Ask Carlos Boozer about it


Asked. So?


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

Rejection!


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## John (Jun 9, 2002)

futuristxen said:


> Rejection!


*** Non-responsive. ***

Come on John you know better than that.


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## Jamel Irief (May 19, 2002)

I hate it when John's posts get edited. I can only imagine what brilliance he wrote.


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## ChiBron (Jun 24, 2002)

John wasn't wrong. LeBron has slowed down, considerably. Good thing he worked his ass off on that jumper though. One of the best shooters in the game now.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

I wonder if Luol Deng thinks Lebron has slowed down? There were plays last night where Lebron was literally in two places at once defensively. There was a play last night where Lebron was on the strong side of the court on the corner block, and the bulls swung to the weak side to try and get it to Deng who was in the opposite corner, and Lebron got along the baseline out to Deng right as the ball arrived.

And that passing lane he jumped for that breakaway on Korver he seemed to come out of nowhere.


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## doctordrizzay (May 10, 2011)

Lebron has gotten faster. He defense is ridiculous right now. He's stealing passes no problem. Lebron has gotten alot better so this thread is a fail.


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## Jamel Irief (May 19, 2002)

His hair growth has slowed down.


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## Hyperion (Dec 5, 2006)

Has it or are you looking in the wrong places?


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## Noyze (Oct 7, 2010)

Jamel Irief said:


> His hair growth has slowed down.


Rofl. You're the reason he'll never get rid of the headband.


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## Luke (Dec 7, 2008)

He's finally looking like the defender and people hype him up to be and his jumper has improved big time. He should probably cut some weight to get some of that speed back but honestly he's looking great out there.


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## futuristxen (Jun 26, 2003)

It depends. If the Heat keep playing him at the 4 and 5 for stretches, he'll need that weight.


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## Luke (Dec 7, 2008)

futuristxen said:


> It depends. If the Heat keep playing him at the 4 and 5 for stretches, he'll need that weight.


LeBron shouldn't ever be playing the five and he could still play the four effectively if he was ten pounds lighter. He should lose weight.


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## Noyze (Oct 7, 2010)

VanillaPrice said:


> LeBron shouldn't ever be playing the five and he could still play the four effectively if he was ten pounds lighter. He should lose weight.


Totally agree. This is what I said at the beginning of the season when Bron fans didn't wanna admit he lost some athleticism. He'd be even more domanant imo back at 6'8 240.


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## Pump Bacon (Dec 11, 2010)

I don't think LeBron has lost any significant athleticism. However I do think he uses more of his energy on the defensive end which makes it seem like he's not as quick or as explosive. The way the Heat play defense in the playoffs is a challenging workout for even elite athletes like James and Wade. Wade looked gassed in the first quarter of the recent game. Sometimes it seems like they're pacing themselves until the 4th quarter where they turn on the turbo button.


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## ChrisWoj (May 17, 2005)

Noyze said:


> Totally agree. This is what I said at the beginning of the season when Bron fans didn't wanna admit he lost some athleticism. He'd be even more domanant imo back at 6'8 240.


LeBron isn't likely to lose nearly two inches of height. He's a legit 6'10 out there, regardless of what "official" measurements tell us (how long was Kevin Garnett listed at 6'10 again?). He could lose that weight, but the fact is that he hasn't lost much of his first step, if any of it. Its just that he's playing at a consistent and smooth speed. He moves with power now, so that first step isn't as obvious. The fact is that he can still get around almost anybody out there.


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## Game3525 (Aug 14, 2008)

ChrisWoj said:


> LeBron isn't likely to lose nearly two inches of height. He's a legit 6'10 out there, regardless of what "official" measurements tell us (how long was Kevin Garnett listed at 6'10 again?). He could lose that weight, but the fact is that he hasn't lost much of his first step, if any of it. Its just that he's playing at a consistent and smooth speed. He moves with power now, so that first step isn't as obvious. *The fact is that he can still get around almost anybody out there*.


I am not so sure about that, he has had trouble getting by guys he would blow by 2 years ago. For example, in game one against Chicago, he had a favorable matchup with Asik, and he couldn't get by him. He is a better basketball player today then he was in 2009, but it is clear to me that he has lost a step athletically.


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## Hyperion (Dec 5, 2006)

Should this thread be merged into the end of the world thread?


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## BenDengGo (Feb 1, 2004)

Jamel Irief said:


> His hair growth has slowed down.


side effect from the juice he has been using.

also did anyone notice how much bigger wades jaw has become since his rookie year...


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## John (Jun 9, 2002)

BenDengGo said:


> side effect from the juice he has been using.
> 
> also did anyone notice how much bigger wades jaw has become since his rookie year...


Yeah.. I think it's his right side.. I dunno what's happened to Wade. Definitely not proportioned man.


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## Hyperion (Dec 5, 2006)

BenDengGo said:


> side effect from the juice he has been using.
> 
> also did anyone notice how much bigger wades jaw has become since his rookie year...


Is it because of this?


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## Shaoxia (Dec 5, 2007)

ChrisWoj said:


> LeBron isn't likely to lose nearly two inches of height. *He's a legit 6'10 out there, regardless of what "official" measurements tell us (how long was Kevin Garnett listed at 6'10 again?)*. He could lose that weight, but the fact is that he hasn't lost much of his first step, if any of it. Its just that he's playing at a consistent and smooth speed. He moves with power now, so that first step isn't as obvious. The fact is that he can still get around almost anybody out there.


You're making stuff up.


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## Job (Feb 28, 2011)

Lebron will slow down just like karl Malone did?????


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## 77AJ (Feb 16, 2005)

I believe in the current state of the NBA, a slimmed down version of LeBron James is the best way to go. The game is no longer really played through the post anymore, pretty much a lost art, with the state of the rule changes, and the dominated perimeter play. Might as well use LBJ in that perimeter role, where he can use his speed, power, and athletic ability to it's full capacity. 

The days of big men, guards, and etc passing the ball beautifully in the post, out of the post, driving into the paint and dropping a great pass, to another wide open pass in the paint for an easy lay up or dunk, are pretty much a thing of yesteryear. You would see the hockey assist much more in the NBA during the 80s/90s. Something you rarely see anymore at least working through the post.


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## Sir Patchwork (Jan 12, 2005)

He is not as lean as he was in Cleveland. He is playing with more weight, and that's by choice to cover the post positions at times. I would like to see him drop the weight though. Unless he is trying to guard someone like Zach Randolph, I don't think the weight helps all that much. There aren't many true scoring post power forwards in the league. Just jumpshooting ones. And with Haslem back, those power forward minutes will all but disappear for LeBron.


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## Wade County (Jun 22, 2003)

I actually agree with Patchwork - he's a little heavy right now and that's what has impacted his explosiveness (dont get me wrong, he's still plenty explosive).

Hopefully he'll be slimmed down and do a bit less weight training this offseason.


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