# This is why I don't believe Blazers can make the playoffs next season.



## Ballscientist (Nov 11, 2002)

Playoffs locks: Spurs, Hornets, Lakers, Jazz

Likely to make the playoffs: Mavs, Suns

Unexpected team: 1 (pending)

8th seed battling (Blazers need to take out both Rockets and Nuggets)

Rockets: sweep the Blazers this season, are in the rebuilding process with 6 rookies - 3 undrafted players, could win 60 next season

Nuggets: Melo and Iverson are still top 4 players in the nba, Camby and Kmart have the career year this season, Nene will be back, could win 55 next season.


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## DaRizzle (May 22, 2007)

While not for the reasons he gave...I tend to agree RIGHT NOW, but things could change a whole lot in the off season.


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## B-Roy (Feb 12, 2008)

DaRizzle said:


> While not for the reasons he gave...I tend to agree RIGHT NOW, *but things could change a whole lot in the off season.*


Exactly.


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## <-=*PdX*=-> (Oct 11, 2007)

Isn't A.I. a free agent also? That could change Denver's makeup.


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

I think the Blazers will be in the same situation as this season - fighting for the 7/8th seed. They'll be better than this season but so will some other teams, and the West is that tough. If they make the playoffs next season (I give them about a 50/50 chance), it'll be as the 8th seed imo.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

Ballscientist said:


> 8th seed battling (Blazers need to take out both Rockets and Nuggets)
> 
> Rockets: sweep the Blazers this season, are in the rebuilding process with 6 rookies - 3 undrafted players, could win 60 next season


The Rockets could win 60 games, but will be battling for the eighth seed.

That's going to be a hell of a conference. If the eighth seeds wins around 60 games, I agree that the Blazers likely won't make the playoffs.


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## GNG (Aug 17, 2002)

Ballscientist said:


> Playoffs locks: Spurs, Hornets, Lakers, Jazz
> 
> Likely to make the playoffs: Mavs, Suns
> 
> ...


Believe the science.


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

If I am the Blazers, I am very happy that you made this claim, based on your previous Blazers claims:

http://www.basketballforum.com/nba-forum/380886-i-truly-believe-all-5-worst-teams-west.html

You were clearly off-base about the Blazers and the kings, and it seems like the Clippers will have a good chance of getting over your predictions for them.

On the other hand, hitting 40% in a topic that is patently wrong is something. Something about blind mice and broken clocks come to mind...


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## DaRizzle (May 22, 2007)

^Broken clocks ARE right twice a day...the rest of the time they are WAY off!!


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## wastro (Dec 19, 2004)

How the heck are we talking about something that is more than a year away?

I'm not even thinking about next season or the playoffs. Too far away.


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## DaRizzle (May 22, 2007)

wastro said:


> How the heck are we talking about something that is more than a year away?


Ballscientist...duh


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## LittleAlex (Feb 14, 2008)

I really don't think the Suns are a sure thing, to be honest. They are one Nash back spasm away from the lottery. As for Enver, without D they will always be on the outside looking in. The only sure things are the Lakers, the Jazz, the Hornets and unfortunately the Spurs. I believe Portland will make it in as an 8th seed.


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## 2k (Dec 30, 2005)

Oden, Fernandez, an 08 pick and overall development should be worth fifteen wins. This is a team that will probably finish a shade over .500 so 15 wins should make for 55-60 win season. I see them headed for the playoffs. The only other lock I see is the Hornets, Mavs, Jazz, and the Lakers and even that is barring injury. The Spurs, Suns, and the Rockets are older teams that could fall fast if they fall. If they have decent or better seasons it will get tight for *everyone*.


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

There aren't too many teams that will be able to guard Oden.

With La and Roy, we are a .500 team. Add Oden and the wildcard, Rudy, and we have over 50 wins, imo. That will prolly get us like a 7 seed next year.


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

Also, Ellis is a FA in Golden State. If he doesn't come back, expect them not to make it next year.

I think we will be battling for 8th, UNLESS we get a PG like... Westbrook, Mayo, Bayless, Hudson, Harris, Ellis, Barbosa, Calderon etc...

I really think we need one. But again, just opinion.


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## It's_GO_Time (Oct 13, 2005)

andalusian said:


> If I am the Blazers, I am very happy that you made this claim, based on your previous Blazers claims:
> 
> http://www.basketballforum.com/nba-forum/380886-i-truly-believe-all-5-worst-teams-west.html
> 
> ...


Nice find.

Based on the poster's prediction history, this means the Blazers should finish between 3-5. I'll take that.


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## e_blazer1 (Feb 3, 2004)

It's not a matter of waiting until the teams in front of us fall. It's a matter of the Blazers becoming good enough to shove them out of the way. Until we see what moves are made this summer and we see if Oden returns in full health, there's no way, scientific or ouija board, to make any kind of relevant prediction.


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

2k said:


> Oden, Fernandez, an 08 pick and overall development should be worth fifteen wins...so 15 wins should make for 55-60 win season.


Thats insanely stupid logic..


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

NewAgeBaller said:


> Thats insanely stupid logic..


is this necessary? Somebody disagrees with you, so what? Try making your point without being a complete jerk. 

STOMP


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

STOMP said:


> is this necessary? Somebody disagrees with you, so what? Try making your point without being a complete jerk.
> 
> STOMP


wow how bout we calm down..

I obviously don't think he's "insane" so its obviously somewhat a joke, and I was referring to the logic he used in his post, not attacking the poster.


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## GOD (Jun 22, 2003)

NewAgeBaller said:


> Thats insanely stupid logic..


Once in a decade Centers usually add 10 wins in the first year. If Oden really does turn out to be as special as predicted, and as healthy as hoped, I think the Blazers could easily end up with 50 wins. 55+ most likely not, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. 

Many think that Rudy, if he were to be in this years draft would be a top 5 pick. Personally, I think he would be 2nd or 3rd. So adding a once in a decade Big man and a 3rd pick and a 13th pick, or some Vet instead of the 13th and a role player or two, could really turn the Blazers into a very powerful team very quickly. 

My personal estimate is 50 wins next year.


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## Dan (Dec 30, 2002)

The Warriors aren't that much better (record wise) than Portland. 

The only "locks" really for next year is San Antonio. The rest can have injury issues.

Certain teams seem to be better off, in regards to their chances (Lakers, Jazz, Hornets, Mavs) but the rest are still an iffy situation. The Rockets this year, for all their winning streak, is still only 4 games from being out of the playoffs (actually, it's quite amazing how close each of the 8 teams are to each other. 8th place? 24 losses...1st place? 20).

They are due for a bit of the "post win streak blues". As in, they could be peaking too soon. Of course, 21 wins IS 21 wins. 

As for the teams above Portland the two that are the least likely "locks", are Golden State and Phoenix (imho). One, because the Suns are getting older. The other, is still relying on playing their best players a LOT of minutes.

It doesn't seem as though Denver is on an upward arc.

As for Portland, I think Oden will make a huge difference (if only defensively, though I think people will be surprised by his offense) on the team. Fewer easy points, better rebounding and block shots. 

Think about this...One of the youngest teams in NBA history stands a chance at still winning 40-43 games this year. And that was without the #1 pick (and potentially one of the better C's to play in the game. Maybe). I don't think Portland will an instant force, but I think they should win the division, or I should say, they should compete for the division crown (btw, did anyone see we have the best record in the division, against each other?).

Since Im leaving for the game soon, Ive lost steam here..But my point is while I'm not saying it's a lock we will make the playoffs, I don't think we should under estimate how much of an impact Oden will have. Not to mention that the team will be a year older (the improvement of Roy and LaMarcus should be even better next year) and Rudy should make an impact.

The team is what, 20-18 (as of now) against the West. I bet Oden improves that by 5-6 games, and improves the record against the east by the same #. You tack on 10-12 wins to this years team and where does that put us?

44-22 and solidly in the playoffs. And that doesn't take into account the # of added losses other teams will have because of that. 

It's not as if Portland is staying with the same team next year, they are getting a significant piece next year.

I know this is a pretty random post, but I don't care. I'm free flowing!


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

GOD said:


> Once in a decade Centers usually add 10 wins in the first year. If Oden really does turn out to be as special as predicted, and as healthy as hoped, I think the Blazers could easily end up with 50 wins. 55+ most likely not, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
> 
> Many think that Rudy, if he were to be in this years draft would be a top 5 pick. Personally, I think he would be 2nd or 3rd. So adding a once in a decade Big man and a 3rd pick and a 13th pick, or some Vet instead of the 13th and a role player or two, could really turn the Blazers into a very powerful team very quickly.
> 
> My personal estimate is 50 wins next year.


I agree 50 wins is quite possible, given the way this team was playing earlier in the season aswell.

I was just disagreeing with his logic - _"Oden + Fernandez + 2008 lotto pick should be worth 15 wins...We should win 55-60."_

My prediction is about 50 aswell, but theres ofcourse other factors like injuries (they had a fair amount this season, and I have doubts about Oden being a complete iron man either), the improvement of other teams including new lotto players, etc..

I do think Oden can/will make a huge difference here, I'm not so sure about Rudy's impact, but thats a bit off-topic here.


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## meru (Jul 2, 2003)

Ballscientist said:


> Nuggets: Melo and Iverson are still top 4 players in the nba


I think any credibility you might have had (on some possible world) was negated by this statement. 

I will concede that they're probably top 4 on their team. So long as you don't factor in defense.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

2k said:


> Oden, Fernandez, an 08 pick and overall development should be worth fifteen wins.


That might be true for a 20-30 win team. The worse the team, the more new talent can affect the win total. Fifteen wins is an enormous swing for a .500 or better team, though, and I don't think Oden, Fernandez and a draftee will accomplish it. I think those additions, plus improvements from existing players, could net an extra 10 wins at the most. If Portland finishes around 40-42 wins this season, I'd expect the team to be in the 45-50 win range next season, which is a significant step up.

Any major moves in the off-season can change the picture a significant amount, though.


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

Minstrel said:


> If Portland finishes around 40-42 wins this season, I'd expect the team to be in the 45-50 win range next season, which is a significant step up.


Yea I agree. If the Blazers really do finish a shade above .500 like he said (ie. 42-43 wins), I'll predict 49-50 wins, barring major injuries. This isn't a horrible team - you don't just expect someone (even someone like Oden and to a lesser extent Fernandez) to add something like 10-15 wins. An addition of 5-10 wins or so is very significant though, for a team on the border of the play-off race.


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## meru (Jul 2, 2003)

Hap said:


> The only "locks" really for next year is San Antonio.


I dunno - have you seen them recently?


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

I think that this team with the addition of a healthy Oden and Fernandez is probably 10 - 12 wins better - specifically because Oden plugs exactly the holes that the team has and Rudy helps with another aspect that is missing.

1. Some low-post threat.
2. Better defense and rebounding for the 2nd unit (Joel moved there) and potentially better for the first unit as well.
3. Another slasher.

I also do not think we will have the same kind of crazy conference next year - simply because some of the lower-seeded teams in the west (Wolves, Sonics) will not be so bad, so you will not need so many wins to get in the playoffs.


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

NewAgeBaller said:


> wow how bout we calm down..
> 
> I obviously don't think he's "insane" so its obviously somewhat a joke, and I was referring to the logic he used in his post, not attacking the poster.


great joke... we're all amused at your wit.

I'll stand by my post. Play nice.

STOMP


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

NewAgeBaller said:


> Yea I agree. If the Blazers really do finish a shade above .500 like he said (ie. 42-43 wins), I'll predict 49-50 wins, barring major injuries. This isn't a horrible team - *you* don't just expect someone (even someone like Oden and to a lesser extent Fernandez) to add something like 10-15 wins. An addition of 5-10 wins or so is very significant though, for a team on the border of the play-off race.


sorry but you're projecting *your* opinion and one that I'd happily bet against. Like a lot of people who aren't Blazer fans, I'm expecting a healthy Greg to dominate and make a major difference. 

STOMP


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

STOMP said:


> great joke... we're all amused at your wit.
> 
> I'll stand by my post. Play nice.
> 
> STOMP


It was just a throwaway comment. But if you're still so appalled, maybe you should take a timeout soon.



STOMP said:


> sorry but you're projecting *your* opinion and one that I'd happily bet against. Like a lot of people who aren't Blazer fans, I'm expecting a healthy Greg to dominate and make a major difference.
> 
> STOMP


ok, thats your opinion..


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## deanwoof (Mar 10, 2003)

heh.. flip this around a year ago for the east for example

miami and chicago were supposed to be locks for the playoffs. but **** happened - injuries and a team blown up.

now think for next year - phoenix has grant hill, shaq, nash, amare and bell, all players with major problems with their bodies. dallas, if they sizzle again this playoffs, could get blown up without even having jkidd on a full year. tmac and yao ... still haven't played together really. san antonio's guys could all keel over tomorrow. there are a lot of what ifs. i'm not saying portland will make the playoffs as a lot of things could happen this summer as well, but it's premature to say we're not making it for sure.


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## Ballscientist (Nov 11, 2002)

50 wins are just not enough to make the p next season. I think it will need 51.

injury-prone players: Roy, Alridge and Oden.


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## DaRizzle (May 22, 2007)

^you are sooo lame...


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

NewAgeBaller said:


> It was just a throwaway comment. But if you're still so appalled, maybe you should take a timeout soon.
> 
> ok, thats your opinion..


obviously your opinion that Greg isn't a dominant player is another one of your "throwaway comments"... should we ever expect you to mean/stand by what you say?

STOMP


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

Ballscientist said:


> 50 wins are just not enough to make the p next season. I think it will need 51.


46 will get you in the playoffs next year. This year is an anomaly. There are 9-10 really good teams and several that really suck (T-pups, Sonics, Memphis, Clips) along with superiority over most of the eastern conference teams other than 2 or 3. The combination of aging of some good western teams (Spurs, Suns at the very least) - and some teams getting better via draft and experience (Portland, Sonics, T-Pups) will re-balance the conference. There will be a lot more losses in conference to the "bottom" teams (Clips will get Brand back, T-pups and sonics will get at least one impact player each, well maybe not the t-pups, they still have McHale as a GM).

This is not going to be the same crazy conference next year.


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## HurraKane212 (Aug 2, 2007)

STOMP said:


> obviously your opinion that Greg isn't a dominant player is another one of your "throwaway comments"... should we ever expect you to mean/stand by what you say?
> 
> STOMP


Hey Stomp, NewAge is not a troll. I've read a lot of his posts and he's not a hater or a homer. I think you're being over sensitive. I don't blame you after all the 9 year old Lakers and Nuggets fans come by and talk trash, but NewAge is OK.


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

HurraKane212 said:


> Hey Stomp, NewAge is not a troll. I've read a lot of his posts and he's not a hater or a homer. I think you're being over sensitive. I don't blame you after all the 9 year old Lakers and Nuggets fans come by and talk trash, but NewAge is OK.


walks like a duck...

I'd still happily take a bet that a healthy Greg (and the rest of the young club being a year older) won't make a 15 game difference. In case anyone forgot, GO is a beast on the block, shoots 80% from the line, and the other end of the court is his strong suit.

STOMP


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## DaRizzle (May 22, 2007)

HurraKane212 said:


> Hey Stomp, NewAge is not a troll. I've read a lot of his posts and he's not a hater or a homer. I think you're being over sensitive. I don't blame you after all the 9 year old Lakers and Nuggets fans come by and talk trash, but NewAge is OK.


I 2nd this


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## Dan (Dec 30, 2002)

meru said:


> I dunno - have you seen them recently?


true, but I think that a lot of that has to do with the Spurs odd season curse. 

But seriously, with Duncan/Manu and Tony they have a solid group who are proven.


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

STOMP said:


> obviously your opinion that Greg isn't a dominant player is another one of your "throwaway comments"... should we ever expect you to mean/stand by what you say?
> 
> STOMP


Well I didn't say he wouldn't be, did I?



HurraKane212 said:


> Hey Stomp, NewAge is not a troll. I've read a lot of his posts and he's not a hater or a homer. I think you're being over sensitive. I don't blame you after all the 9 year old Lakers and Nuggets fans come by and talk trash, but NewAge is OK.





DaRizzle said:


> I 2nd this


thanks,, I really don't have anything against the team :biggrin:

like I said, I expect you to improve next season, maybe around a 50 win season in my opinion.


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## Dan (Dec 30, 2002)

NewAgeBaller said:


> like I said, *I expect you to improve next season, maybe around 50 wins* in my opinion.


Holy crap, you expect them to improve by 50 wins next year!?!?


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## NewAgeBaller (Jan 8, 2007)

Hap said:


> Holy crap, you expect them to improve by 50 wins next year!?!?


.. now I gotta edit my post ..


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## craigehlo (Feb 24, 2005)

I'm not sold on the Rockets being any lock for next season. T-Mac's health is always a big wild card. They have a great winning streak right now, but I think they will lose in the 1st round of the playoffs against a team with a strong inside player. 

I have a feeling Golden State will also be a tad worse next season, especially if they lose Monta Ellis to free agency. 

I could also see the Mavs and Nuggs missing the playoffs as key players (Kidd, AI) get older.

The Blazer need to trade for a vet next season if they want to make a strong playoff push. But with a vet and Oden, I'd be surprised if we didn't at least make the 8th seed.


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## nikolokolus (Jan 29, 2008)

I think I'm going to hedge, and keep my expectations for next year squarely in the "modest improvement" category. I _think_ GO and Rudy will be able to have a nice positive impact, but until I see Greg lace up his "tennies" and get on the court and prove that he can stay healthy I don't want to get too far ahead of myself.

Another thing that worries me about all these predictions is that I wonder if the team really has it in them next year to play consistently; if you take away the 17-1 run in December this is a sub .400 team, and is it realistic to expect that they'll put up another monster run like that in 08-09?

Personally I think the team will probably manage about 46-48 wins next year (and I hope I'm proved wrong and they do push that up to 50-55); this is still going to be a very young team when you think about it -- minus any trades for vets at PG and/or SF.


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## yuyuza1 (May 24, 2006)

I'd be pretty pissed if we miss the playoffs again. Four years out has been long enough. If we don't make them next year, I would hope some serious changes are made. *cough* Coaching change. *cough*


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## Boob-No-More (Apr 24, 2006)

For all Nate's faults, the team's record has improved by about 10 wins per year under his coaching. His first year they won a league-worse 21 games. Last year they won 32 games - an 11 game improvement. This year they've already won 35 with 15 games to go. So, they'll probably finish with around 41 - 43 wins - or roughly a 10 win improvement over last year.

And what impact players did they add between last year and this? They had the number one pick in the draft, but he didn't play a game. They also drafted the best young player in Europe, but he didn't play a game for them either. They traded away their leading scorer and rebounder. And, they let their starting small forward and back-up center both walk and got nothing in return. Yet they are on pace to win about 10 more games. How'd that happen?

Sure they added Steve Blake and James Jones. These guys are two great role players. They are great glue guys and intelligent players that help keep this young team from getting rattled easily. But they are hardly franchise-changing "impact" players. Blake is the only addition to this year's roster that is in the top seven on the team in minutes played. So, how is this team, after losing their top scorer and rebounder, be on pace to win about 10 more games than last year without adding any impact players?

It's simple, their young players have improved significantly. Brandon Roy is better than last year. LaMarcus Aldidge is significantly better than last year. Travis Outlaw is probably the most improved of the bunch. Even Martell Webster, who still has a long way to go, is better than last year. And guess what, none of these guys have come close to reaching their peak yet. Roy is 23; Aldridge 22; Outlaw 23; Webster 21. These guys are all going to keep getting better year, after year for several more seasons. In fact, the only player on their roster over 28 and past his prime is Raef LaFrentz - and he's 11th on the team in minutes played.

Now, add in the number 1 pick in the 2007 draft - the most significant big man to enter the league since Tim Duncan, and a once-a-decade dominant center PLUS the best young player in Europe (2007 Euroleague Rising Star Award winner) who may actually be the best player in Euriope period - regardless of age (2006 FIBA EuroCup Final Four MVP, 2008 Copa del Rey de Baloncesto MVP) and how can you not think this team will be at least 10 wins better next year? And that doesn't even consider the fact that they will have another lottery pick that they can use themselves or use as part of a trade for a veteran player.

So, in addition to the continued improvement of their young players (which is really everyone on their roster not named LaFrentz), they will be adding Greg Oden as their starting center. Even if he struggles a bit as a rookie, he will still be a huge upgrade over Joel Przybilla as their starting center, especially at the offensive end. He instantly addresses their three biggest weaknesses - inside scoring threat, rebounding and interior defense. And now, Przybilla becomes their back-up center, which is also an improvement over their current situation, where they often play without a center on the second unit, or play Channing Frye, a power forward not known for his toughness at back-up center. So, the center spot will be greatly improved on both the first and second units with the addition of Greg Oden.

Rudy will probably come off the bench, at least initially, and his addition will make the Blazers second unit much, much better next season than this. He will easily be the most talented offensive player on the second unit, and that includes Travis Outlaw, who is no slouch.

And, they'll also have that lottery pick - likely the 13th, which can be combined with one or more of their young players (not named Roy, Aldridge or Oden) for a significant veteran. They could use a package including this pick to upgrade either the starting point guard or starting small forward spots. Or if someone Pritchard really likes falls to 13, they could keep the pick. Point is Pritchard will have LOT of flexibility to improve the roster however he sees fit. With the 6 trades on draft day 2006 and trading Zach Randolph on draft day 2007, Pritchard has shown he's not gun shy when he sees a trade that he thinks will improve the team.

So, better starting unit, better second unit, young guys continuing to improve... Sounds like a good recipe for another 10-win improvement to me. So, even though it's premature, I'll go out on a limb and predict 52 wins for the 2008-09 Blazers, which should be good for about the sixth seed in the West next year.

BNM


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## GOD (Jun 22, 2003)

Boob-No-More said:


> ...
> 
> So, better starting unit, better second unit, young guys continuing to improve... Sounds like a good recipe for another 10-win improvement to me. So, even though it's premature, I'll go out on a limb and predict 52 wins for the 2008-09 Blazers, which should be good for about the sixth seed in the West next year.
> 
> BNM


So in 2011/2012 the Blazers will win 82 games since they will continue to improve 10 wins per year. JK, I know what you were saying and I agree completely. But we do have to remember that it gets progressively harder to win more. If your team won 10 games, winning 5 more the next year is easy. But if your team is a 60 win team, winning 65 the next year would be a real feat. But, I think between the talent the Blazers already have, the talent that will be added, and KP's dealings, I think that this team will win in the 50 win neighborhood next year. Bout time!!


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## KingSpeed (Oct 30, 2003)

Ballscientist said:


> Playoffs locks: Spurs, Hornets, Lakers, Jazz
> 
> Likely to make the playoffs: Mavs, Suns
> 
> ...


There are no locks. You never know what's going to happen from season to happen. But if any team is a lock, I'd consider the Rockets one. Have you not be paying attention the last two months? They don't lose. They will only be better next season.


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## Boob-No-More (Apr 24, 2006)

GOD said:


> So in 2011/2012 the Blazers will win 82 games since they will continue to improve 10 wins per year. JK, I know what you were saying and I agree completely. But we do have to remember that it gets progressively harder to win more. If your team won 10 games, winning 5 more the next year is easy. But if your team is a 60 win team, winning 65 the next year would be a real feat. But, I think between the talent the Blazers already have, the talent that will be added, and KP's dealings, I think that this team will win in the 50 win neighborhood next year. Bout time!!


Agreed, it becomes harder and harder to improve year after year and you eventually plateau. However, next year's Blazers will be in a unique position. They will be adding a dominant center and No. 1 overall pick in the previous year's draft, plus possibly another guy who would potentially go top 5 if he were in this draft and they still have that other lottery pick to play around with. 

I'm not predicting they will continue to improve by 10 wins every year, but I could see the trend continuing for another two years. 2008-09: add Oden, possibly Fernandez and whatever they get out of the 13th, plus Roy, Aldridge, etc. continue to improve. 2009-10: Oden the sophomore better than Oden the rookie, possibly the same for Rudy, all the other young guys getting closer to their primes, and possible FA signing or trade with all that supposed cap space, etc. When you're the 3rd youngest team in NBA history and you win ~42 games AND you still have two other significant pieces that haven't even played a game for you yet, the future has to look bright. 

This is a team that is on a 3 - 4 year arc to become serious championship contenders. To get there from ~0.500 will take significant improvement each year. That improvement in won-loss record will eventually taper off, but a team that's expected to contend for multiple championships will have to win > 60 games on a regular basis.

BNM


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## 2k (Dec 30, 2005)

Minstrel said:


> That might be true for a 20-30 win team. The worse the team, the more new talent can affect the win total. Fifteen wins is an enormous swing for a .500 or better team, though, and I don't think Oden, Fernandez and a draftee will accomplish it. I think those additions, plus improvements from existing players, could net an extra 10 wins at the most. If Portland finishes around 40-42 wins this season, I'd expect the team to be in the 45-50 win range next season, which is a significant step up.
> 
> Any major moves in the off-season can change the picture a significant amount, though.


I would agree with you if we werent talking about such a young team and such talented players who also fill team needs.

I'm in complete agreement with Boob-No-More. The Trail Blazers are not going to be a fun team to play.


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## Schilly (Dec 30, 2002)

The simplest answer is the simplest answer... There's a a reason they play the games.


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## Ballscientist (Nov 11, 2002)

andalusian said:


> 46 will get you in the playoffs next year. This year is an anomaly. There are 9-10 really good teams and several that really suck (T-pups, Sonics, Memphis, Clips) along with superiority over most of the eastern conference teams other than 2 or 3. The combination of aging of some good western teams (Spurs, Suns at the very least) - and some teams getting better via draft and experience (Portland, Sonics, T-Pups) will re-balance the conference. There will be a lot more losses in conference to the "bottom" teams (Clips will get Brand back, T-pups and sonics will get at least one impact player each, well maybe not the t-pups, they still have McHale as a GM).
> 
> This is not going to be the same crazy conference next year.


Then I discount the Blazers projected 42 wins to 37 wins.

5 games discount this season

You win 45 next season!


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

Ballscientist said:


> Then I discount the Blazers projected 42 wins to 37 wins.


This is not smart since if you accept my idea that the conference will be balanced and the Blazers will be part of the re-balancing act - you can not remove some of these Blazers projected wins that are the cause of the re-balancing act.



Ballscientist said:


> You win 45 next season!


Given your previous performance predictions I should pencil the Blazers to about 60 wins next year, then. Huh.


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## TLo (Dec 27, 2006)

Not only will the Blazers make the playoffs next season, but they will also challenge for the best record in the Western Conference. We will be the most talented team in the NBA next season. The only thing lacking will be experience.


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