# Assuming Everyone Stays Healthy, Do The Wizards Have A Legit Shot At Contending?



## Basel

It wasn't that long ago that the trio of Arenas, Butler & Jamison led their team to the top of the Eastern Conference standings - of course, this was about midway through the season and the rest of the competition in the East wasn't what it is today - and then things fell apart. But nobody ever expected them to be at the top.

If they're healthy this season, do they have any realistic chance at competing with the Magic, Cavaliers or Celtics? Wouldn't surprise me if they grabbed the 4 seed or if they advanced to the 2nd round. But what would happen in the 2nd round should they meet either of those 3 teams? Would they have a chance at advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals or is it just a 3-team race again this season?


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## Krstic All-Star

If _everyone_ stays healthy _and_ Blatche continues to improve, then maybe, just maybe.


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## Dre

My heart says if they can get there completely healthy and Arenas is at least 95% of what he used to be they can make a cinderella run...but the NBA playoffs are where the best team always wins, it's not about runs. I don't think they could really beat Orlando 4 out of 7 games, and Cleveland has some sort of mystical edge over this team. I feel like the Wizards are to Lebron what Cleveland was to Jordan.


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## Krstic All-Star

Who's Craig Ehlo then?


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## Dre

Oh please, easily Deshawn :laugh:


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## Krstic All-Star

:lol: I can see it already.


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## Krstic All-Star

I wonder how McGee will play this season.


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## Dre

He's definitely showing flashes and from what I recall this preseason he's doing his thing. 

He's on his way to being the starter in a couple years he needs to just keep at it, hone his game and stay far away from Andray Blatche, who's in like his 4th year still showing "flashes".


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## Krstic All-Star

Well, McGee didn't really get much playing time last season, but seemed to have decent numbers for 15 mpg.


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## BlakeJesus

Blatche and McGee need to do good things with their minutes if the Wiz want to try and make an impact in the playoffs (or even get to the playoffs for that matter). Obviously health is a concern too, and it'd be nice to think that the injury plague will be gone but look at the Rockets. Some teams are just cursed.


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## Krstic All-Star

Nobody's even mentioned Haywood... not sure what that means


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## byrondarnell66

Krstic All Star said:


> Nobody's even mentioned Haywood... not sure what that means


Secret weapon


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## Krstic All-Star

^ Yeah, and the fact that he missed almost all of last season probably didn't help.


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## f22egl

Krstic All Star said:


> Nobody's even mentioned Haywood... not sure what that means


It means he's underrated. He is the team's best defender and one of the better defenders in the league. He was the key for the Wizards beating the Celtics 3 times in the 07-08 as he drew the assignment of guarding KG. He was part of the Wizards collective effort of containing Dwight Howard to only 3 points last season. Brendan Haywood could be a top 10 center this season if he plays like he did in 07-08; he's also playing in a contract year.


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## f22egl

Basel said:


> It wasn't that long ago that the trio of Arenas, Butler & Jamison led their team to the top of the Eastern Conference standings - of course, this was about midway through the season and the rest of the competition in the East wasn't what it is today - and then things fell apart. But nobody ever expected them to be at the top.
> 
> If they're healthy this season, do they have any realistic chance at competing with the Magic, Cavaliers or Celtics? Wouldn't surprise me if they grabbed the 4 seed or if they advanced to the 2nd round. But what would happen in the 2nd round should they meet either of those 3 teams? Would they have a chance at advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals or is it just a 3-team race again this season?


The Wizards have a chance to be something special. Of course a large part hinges on Gilbert Arenas's health. But he's more likely to come back healthy this time around then before. It's a good thing that he's taking his time this time around rather than rushing back too soon and causing himself to get re-injured. He's also working out with Michael Jordan's trainer Tim Grover in the offseason; Grover worked out with Dwayne Wade last offseason.

Antawn Jamison will also have to continue to produce in a high rate. Statistically, he had his best season ever in Washington, at least according to PER. Even though he is getting up there in age, he can still do his thing because his game doesn't rely on as much athleticism but a lot of craftiness. And there's Caron Butler who is a 3 time all star himself. 

A big question as it always remains with this group is defense. Will Flipo Saunders defensive scheme even help the Wizards to be average, who were among the worst with Eddie Jordan. Guys like Gilbert Arenas are going to have to put more effort on the defensive end. 

Brendan Haywood has secured himself as the starter but no one is sure who is going to start at shooting guard. The Wizards have no shortage of options (Foye, Miller, Stevenson, Young, McGuire) which is a good thing to have. Blatche and McGee have huge ceilings, hopefully at least 1 can step up and be a quality backup. If not, the Wizards can always go to the veteran savvy Oberto.

- Can Foye play like he did in January and February where he averaged 19 ppg and 4.6 apg while shooting a 45 fg% and above 40% from 3 point range? He's someone that has had injury concerns.
- Is this the year where Nick Young gets it? Flip is molding him into a Rip Hamilton catch and shoot player and Young was performing well in summer league. At the very least, he could be a double digit scorer coming off the bench
- Mike Miller is a lethal 3 point shooter when he's on, good passer, and underrated rebounder (he was one of the top rebounding guards in the league last year)
- If Arenas is healthy and regains his explosiveness, his penetration to the basket should create good 3 point looks for Miller, Foye, and Young
- The Wizards look like they have their deepest team at least in the past 10 years. Their bench stacks up very well against the other teams like Cleveland.


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## Dre

Haywood is an above average center in this league but in today's climate that's not saying much. I like him but there's not really too much you can say about him. He's a good defender, but he's the center and they still have a poor overall defense, and offensively he's ok but you can't expect more than 15 from him on any given night. 

McGee has a chance to be better than Haywood within 2 years, he definitely did well in his minutes last year, I think he would've put together an even more promising showing with limited minutes, they had to have him out there for a little longer than he was ready most nights.

What I'm interested in seeing is how this bench logjam plays out...Young, Foye, Miller could all be good 6th men for most teams. 

And it's an important year for Young too. No doubt he's talented but he gets trigger happy and still isn't an overall good decision-maker. Too many bonehead moves.


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## roux

Playoffs definitely, contender, not a chance in hell


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## f22egl

Dre™ said:


> Haywood is an above average center in this league but in today's climate that's not saying much. I like him but there's not really too much you can say about him. He's a good defender, but he's the center and they still have a poor overall defense, and offensively he's ok but you can't expect more than 15 from him on any given night.
> 
> McGee has a chance to be better than Haywood within 2 years, he definitely did well in his minutes last year, I think he would've put together an even more promising showing with limited minutes, they had to have him out there for a little longer than he was ready most nights.
> 
> What I'm interested in seeing is how this bench logjam plays out...Young, Foye, Miller could all be good 6th men for most teams.
> 
> And it's an important year for Young too. No doubt he's talented but he gets trigger happy and still isn't an overall good decision-maker. Too many bonehead moves.


Haywood actually fits in well with the Wizards because they don't need as much scoring from him with all the offensive weapons they have. With his a 70 ft %, Brendan Haywood was one of the more efficient scoring centers in the league with a TS% of 58% in the 07-08 season, so he isn't a liability on offense. And he was an above average offensive rebounder averaging over 3 a game. The biggest thing with Haywood is that he's very long with a 7 foot 6 wingspan (1/2 an inch smaller than Shaq) so he has the ability to make up for the Wizards defensive mistakes by changing shots with his height. The biggest reason that the Wizards were not a 45 win as opposed to a 19 win team was that they were without Brendan Haywood. 

Here's a more in depth article on why Brendan Haywood impact on the Wizards: 
http://www.truthaboutit.net/2009/07/the-miseducation-of-brendan-haywood.html

I agree that McGee could surpass Haywood in 2 years or even sooner but that's because McGee has an uber amount of potential. He probably has more offensive ability than Haywood at this point of his career. Unfortunately, the biggest liability is that he isn't strong enough and he isn't a good enough defender.

I'm encouraged what I saw with Young in summer league where he was being used as a catch and shoot player on the offensive end in the mold of a Richard Hamilton. The plus side is that he won't have to make as many decisions with the ball in his hands and the Wizards can capitalize his strength as a scorer. 

But the shooting guard spot is wide open. Even DeShawn Stevenson is in the mix for some minutes if he can get healthy from his back injury.


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## f22egl

As for beating the top 3 teams in the playoffs, the only team which the Wizards match up particularily well with in the past was the Boston Celtics. The Wizards were able to beat the Celtics 3 out of 4 times in the 07-08 season. The Wizards did a good job as any team in slowing down KG with Haywood and Blatche. plus having Sam Cassell as an assistant head coach could give the Wizards a better handling on how to slow down Boston, particularily since he spent some time with Boston. I would still consider the Celtics favorites. 

Cleveland usually finds a way to beat the Wizards. Although the Wizards can present the same matchup problems that Orlando did by shooting the long ball. Plus the Wizards even managed to beat the Cavs twice this season. And if the refs actually call traveling on LeBron James in the closing seconds of a game like they did last season, anything is possible. 

I would say the toughest of all 3 matchups for the Wizards is Orlando. Although the Wizards potentially have enough guys to slow down Dwight Howard (Haywood, Blatche, Oberto, McGee), their biggest problem in the past has been slowing down 3 point shooting teams. On the plus side, Flip Saunders was the head coach of the Detroit Pistons wich beat Orlando 8 out of 9 times in the postseason. I believe they closed out the Magic in their last two games without Chauncey Billups. Ultimately, Orlando remains the more talented team on paper.


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## BlakeJesus

That shooting guard log jam really isn't helping this team. I'm curious what they do with Foye, because his experience at the point could really open up big minutes for him and guys like Nick Young. If Foye, Miller, Stevenson, and Young are all playing for minutes at the 2 than it's unlikely they will all get what they need. But if Foye can play some minutes at point that opens up extra time at the two. 

In a fast paced system like this, can a guy like Nick Young (6 foot 6 and athletic) get some legit time at the 3 spot?


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## Dre

I think they should start Stevenson at the 2 so the second unit will be more potent. With the big 3 out there, Stevenson and Haywood can just get in where they fit in, then you bring in Foye, Young and Miller at 1,2,3 with Blatche and McGee...that's the strongest bench maybe they've ever had.


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## f22egl

GregOden said:


> That shooting guard log jam really isn't helping this team. I'm curious what they do with Foye, because his experience at the point could really open up big minutes for him and guys like Nick Young. If Foye, Miller, Stevenson, and Young are all playing for minutes at the 2 than it's unlikely they will all get what they need. But if Foye can play some minutes at point that opens up extra time at the two.
> 
> In a fast paced system like this, can a guy like Nick Young (6 foot 6 and athletic) get some legit time at the 3 spot?


Foye will probably see most of point guard minutes when Arenas is not on the floor. Nick Young needs to improve his strength and rebounding in order to play small forward. Mike Miller could play at the backup small forward position. Miller can play minutes at the backup small forward position. Ultimately, 2 of those guys could be on the short end of the stick when it comes to playing time, especially if the Wizards go with a big lineup like Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Blatche, Haywood. 

It will be up to Flip to determine who will be the best fit for this team in training camp. Hopefully, the competition for these spots will bring out the best in these players.


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## HB

Wild card in the East. Lots of talent, unfortunately this is a very injury prone team. They need an enforcer type player, someone willing to do the dirty work. They seem like a bunch of good guys with no real nasty edge to them.


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## Krstic All-Star

^ Haywood can mix it up a bit, can't he?


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## f22egl

^^^ Yup: he's much tougher since he's first entered the league. Blatche needs to step more into that role if Haywood gets in foul trouble.. The Wizards also have Oberto who is a pretty gritty player.


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## Krstic All-Star

Good point - I forgot about Oberto


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## BlakeJesus

Blatche is a guy I really, really want to succeed. He's got some kind of ability for how tall he is. Didn't he used to play SF? And now he can play C. That's versatility.


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## Basel

He's one of those players who has all the tools to be a great player, but he just needs to put it all together. Maybe this will finally be the year? One game last year, he had 25 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 assists and 2 steals. That was in just under 30 minutes. If he can get that many minutes a game this season, I can see a few more games like that throughout the season.


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## f22egl

GregOden said:


> Blatche is a guy I really, really want to succeed. He's got some kind of ability for how tall he is. Didn't he used to play SF? And now he can play C. That's versatility.


He does have a lot skills but he tends to over do it (ie attempting a behind the back pass on the fastbreak). He gets a decent amount of assists for a big man but he commits a large ammount of turnovers as well. Blatche also lacks a consistent jumper. He has shown flashes of being a solid defender in the post. Basically, he has the tools to put it altogether but it remains to be seen if he has the work ethic and consistency.

BTW, this is essentially Blatche's is going into his 5th year, you also have to factor in that he missed his rookie season from a gun shot wound and that he came straight into the NBA from high school. He'll be 23 at the start of the 09-10 season.


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## Basel

f22egl said:


> He does have a lot skills but he tends to over do it (ie attempting a behind the back pass on the fastbreak). He gets a decent amount of assists for a big man but he commits a large ammount of turnovers as well. Blatche also lacks a consistent jumper. He has shown flashes of being a solid defender in the post. Basically, he has the tools to put it altogether but it remains to be seen if he has the work ethic and consistency.
> 
> BTW, this is essentially Blatche's is going into his 5th year, you also have to factor in that he missed his rookie season from a gun shot wound and that he came straight into the NBA from high school. *He'll be 23 at the start of the 08-09 season.*


You mean the 09-10 season or he was 23 to start the 08-09 season?


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## f22egl

Basel said:


> You mean the 09-10 season or he was 23 to start the 08-09 season?


I meant he'll be 23 at the start 09-10 season. He's 22 right now.


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## Basel

Gotcha. Yeah, he's still very young and has a lot of time to work on his game and improve.


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## Luke

I can't see them being a top five team in the conferance. If healthy they'll make the playoffs though, too much talent for them not too.


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## Chan Ho Nam

there are no cinderellas, but my dark horse are the Nuggets


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