# Eurobasket: Post your predictions !!!



## starvydas (Jul 16, 2002)

The EuroBasket '07 will take place in Spain from Sept. 3rd to Sept. 16. Sixteen teams will participate :

Group A

Greece
Serbia
Russia
Another team to be determined after a qualification tournament that has Bosnia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Estonia, Macedonia, Sweden, Belgium, Denmark, Israel and Ukraine. Out of these teams, Israel are the most likely to get that last spot for Eurobasket.

Group B

Spain
Croatia
Latvia
Portugal

Group C

Lithuania
Germany
Turkey
Czech Republic

Group D

France
Italy
Slovenia
Poland

The first three teams of each group will qualify for the second round and will be put into two groups of six teams, out of which 4 teams will qualify for the quarter finals.

Here are my predictions: 



*1. Spain*

Obvious favorite as they are the World Champions and are playing at home. Undefeated so far in preparation games. A perfect mix of go-to players (P. Gasol, Navarro, Calderon) and Euroleague-level role players (Jimenez, M. Gasol, Cabezas etc...). They are a beauty to watch offensively and are very solid defensively as well. Anything short of winning the title, which would be their first ever in EuroBasket, would be a huge disappointment in Spain. Jorge Garbajosa might not play but this team is so stacked that it might not even matter.

Key players : Pau Gasol, Juan Carlos Navarro, Juan Manuel Calderon, Jorge Garbajosa (if he plays), Rudy Fernandez.



*2.Lithuania*

Although most of the "experts" would put Greece there, my #1 outsider to beat Spain is Lithuania. The Balts in my opinion have put up the best team since the Sabonis/Marciulionis days of glory and their roster is simply scary. They have the best frontcourt of the tournament in my mind in terms of depth as well as talent: Ilgauskas, Javtokas, the Lavrinovic brothers, Songaila and Kleiza. Their backcourt isnt too shabby either with sharpshooters such as Jasikevicius, Macijauskas, Siskauskas and the underrated Kaukenas. You could say that they dont have a reliable backup PG and that they might have trouble integrating Big Z in their collective schemes but that would be bickering. You still have to notice that they twice lost heavily to Spain in preparation games.

Key players: Sarunas Jasikevicius, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ramunas Siskauskas, Linas Kleiza, Darius Songaila, Darius Lavrinovic.



*3.Greece*

EuroBasket '05 winners, you can count on the Greeks to defend their title till the last minute.Greece, although not the most talented squad, is probably the most well-rounded team in terms of collective experience and discipline. More importantly they have the best defense in Europe and always seem to find a way to prevent your favorite team from scoring. They have interchangeable players at each position, and is the only team you can say that each of their players have important responsibilities for their club at the highest level in Europe. They will try to seek revenge after losing heavily to a Gasol-less Spain in the World Championship Finale.

Key players: Theodoras Papaloukas, Lazaros Papadopoulos, Dimitris Diamantidis, Vassilis Spanoulis, Antonis Fotsis.



*4.France*

The team I root for so I may be placing them a bit high, though they won bronze last time and were 50 seconds away from beating Greece in the Semi-Finals. They are the most athletic side of the tournament in my opinion. Expect from them a lot of spectacular dunks and blocks but also a fair share of missed free throws and open threes as they have no real shooter that can compete consistently at this level (unless you want to call Parker a shooter). France has the luxury not to call up NBA players Johan Petro, Mickael Gelabale and Mickael Pietrus as "they dont fit the European way of playing basketball" (dixit the French coach). Defense is France's best asset but there will be times when they will struggle offensively and rely solely on Parker to get them out of tough situations, which is a big risk. Though his shooting has drastically improved since then, Parker was indeed statistically the worst player for France in 2005, due to his lack of shooting abilities and the fact that a dominant center did not play alongside him.

Key players: Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, Florent Pietrus, Ronny Turiaf, Yakhouba Diawara



*5.Italy*

Italy has a rejuvenated team and might be the surprise team of the tournament. Their talent level is impressive with players such as Bargani, Bellinelli, Basile and the next Italian gem Danilo Gallinari. They will as always rely heavily on the shooting of their guards, who can catch fire at any moment. Their frontcourt, despite the addition of Bargnani, is aging (Galanda, Marconato) and will be their main weakness. They also might lack of collective experience as the reins of the team will be given to Belinelli and Bargnani, who are both only 21, with Basile to tutor them. A place on the podium though is not out of reach. 

Key players : Gianluca Basile, Andrea Bargnani, Marco Bellinelli, Matteo Soragna, Giacomo Galanda



*6.Germany*

Once again for Germany, it will be Nowitzki surrounded with (mediocre) role players. Offensively they will feed Dirk and either let him score or let him create space for launching as many threes as possible. They are very solid defensively though and have a warriors' mentality but I dont see the others teams not adapting to their way of playing for Germany to reach the finale, like they did in 2005. This is probably the last campaign for half the roster and, unfortunately for Germany, the next generation is not very talented.

Key Players: Dirk Nowitzki, Ademola Okulaja, Desmond Greene



*7.Turkey*

Turkey has in intriguing team made of bonafide NBA players and an up and coming generation. Turkoglu and Okur will the team's leaders and can compete with anyone at the Euro Level. Add to the two NBAers sharpshooters Kutluay and Erdogan and you have a very solid offensive team. What they truly lack is a top-notch PG and some offensive firepower in the post, where only Okur can score consistently. Turkey is also known for imploding when things turn wrong so you can never expect anything sure from them.

Key players: Hidayet Turkoglu, Mehmet Okur, Serkan Erdogan, Ibrahim Kutluay, Ersan Ilyasova. 



*8.Slovenia*

There will be no Nachbar, Brezec, Vujacic, Becirovic and Udrih for the Slovenian squad at the EuroBasket. They still have a quite solid team, especially in the post with Nesterovic, Smodis, E. Lorbek and Slokar but not enough to go past the semi-finals in my opinion. Their backcourt is depleted due to all the aforementionned absentees and only Lakovic can be considered a Euro top guard.

Key players: Radoslav Nesterovic, Matjaz Smodis, Erazem Lorbek, Jaka Lakovic, Uros Slokar



*9.Serbia*

After dominating the continent in the early 2000s, Serbia is in rebuilding mode so I dont expect them to do anything great in Spain. They do have an impressive amount of young talents (Aleksandrov, Teodosic, Tepic, Erceg to name a few) but they are not experienced enough to compete for a medal. The team will be led by NBAers Jaric and Milicic who are both inconsistent and Jaric is a locker room's nightmare. The only positive for them is the decision of Gurovic to join the squad as he is one of Europe's top scorer and an overall great player.

Key Players: Milan Gurovic, Marko Jaric, Darko Milicic



*10.Croatia*

Croatia will as usual be competitive but I dont see them contending in Spain. They are stacked at the PG position, which is never a bad thing in Euro ball, with Popovic, Ukic and Planinic but there is not much else noticing. They have a hard working frontcourt in Kasun and Prkacin but they are average at best at this level. The absence of Giricek and Vujcic wont help either. 

Key players: Marko Popovic, Zoran Planinic, Roko-Leni Ukic, Mario Kasun



*11.Russia*

The Russians will try to regain some glory from the past but are simply not talented enough to be a serious contender. Kirilenko will once again be the anchor of this team both defensively and offensively but he will feel by himself many times during the tournament.

Key players: Andrei Kirilenko, J.R. Holden, Victor Khryapa, Nikita Shabalkin



*12. Latvia*

This will be Biedrins' first experience with his national team so it will be interesting to see how things turn out for him. Apart from him, expect from Lithuania's neighbours a lot of three-point shooting and bad defense.

Key players: Andris Biedrins, Kaspars Cipruss, Kristaps Janicenoks



*13.Israel*

The most likely candidate to get the last ticket to Eurobasket. Israel will as usual have a nice backcourt but desperately lack big men to be succesful in such a tight competition.

Key players: Yotam Halperin, Lior Eliyahu, Meir Tapiro



*14.Czech Republic*

Jiri Welsch's team will try to cause havoc in Lithuania's group but I'll be surprised if they win one game. 

Key players: Jiri Welsch, Lubos Barton, Ondrej Starosta.



*15. Poland*

Poland was once a dominating force in Europe, reaching the finale at EuroBasket in 1963, only to lose to USSR. This time round their main goal will be to prepare as well as possible EuroBasket 2009, which will be held in Poland.

Key Players: Adam Wojcik, Andrezj Pluta, Maciej Lampe



*16. Portugal*

Although their Ukrainian coach Valentyn Melnychuk is known for leading small countries to relative success, Portugal will be lucky to even come close of winning a game.

Key players: Elvis Evora, Paulo Cunha



I've just realized how tough it is to rank those nations, there are some teams I wouldnt mind ranking 3 or 4 spots higher, but choices have to be made. So let me see yours, post your predictions!!!


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

Great post: I have no clue who will win but I enjoyed the read


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## Pioneer10 (Sep 30, 2004)

OBTW any chance Rubio will be on Spain's roster or is Spain just too loaded?


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## starvydas (Jul 16, 2002)

Pioneer10 said:


> OBTW any chance Rubio will be on Spain's roster or is Spain just too loaded?


As good as he is, Ricky Rubio was not selected in team Spain. Two main reasons for this : he already played for Spain the EuroBasket for Men under 18 which has just finished on August 12 (Spain was eliminated in the quarter finals).
Also, as you said, Spain is loaded at the PG position: they have two NBA caliber players in Juan Manuel Calderon and Sergio Rodriguez and their third-string PG is Carlos Cabezas who is a very good Euroleague player and who would probably be a starter on any other team.


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## Diophantos (Nov 4, 2004)

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/olybb/news/story?id=3002735&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines


> SEVILLE, Spain -- Spain will be without shooting guard Juan Carlos Navarro for the first round of the European basketball championships because of a muscle tear in his right leg.
> 
> "This is really a setback, having really worked hard over the past month," said Navarro, who plays for the Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA. "But I'm not worried. We've got enough players to replace me."
> 
> Navarro will miss Spain's Group A opener against Portugal, as well as matches against Latvia and Croatia.


Does this change anything? Or just being cautious?

(oh, and Garbajosa should be playing, according to that same article)


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

It's nothing serious, they just sit him out so that he can be a hundred percent for the important games. Spain is good enough to replace him for the first three matches.


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## gi0rdun (May 31, 2007)

I think Greek have a good chance they have this guard called V. Spanoulis he's quite good it would've been nice if the Rockets picked him up last season.


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## starvydas (Jul 16, 2002)

giordun said:


> I think Greek have a good chance they have this guard called V. Spanoulis he's quite good it would've been nice if the Rockets picked him up last season.


Spanoulis aint that bad and he sure killed the US the last time they played so I could see why he was given a chance.


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## SheriffKilla (Jan 1, 2004)

Croatia had a huge upset

Right now Russia is looking like the best team and Kirilenko is MVP... it looks like he finally recovered from injury and if you look at Russia they have an excellent record when he actually plays...


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

This has been a good tourney so far. How did Portugal win? Did anyone see a game from any of our posters in Europe?


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

I have seen some games, mostly the German games. It's like in the last years, there is no clear-cut favorite right now, but Spain should still be considered favorites with homecourt advantage, but they didn't look invincible at all. Navarro will certainly be a key addition coming back from his minor injury, he is almost as important as Gasol because he can score at will against most European teams. Even with the struggles I still pick them to win the tournament.

I have no idea how Portugal won that game, Latvia was playing pretty solid in the first two games and they beat Croatia, probably a sign of arrogance and now they can fly back home. 

The Lithuanians played very well for most of the game against Germany, I wouldn't be shocked to see them at least winning a medal again. They might even win it all, they have quality depth and Jasikevicius is really making a case for himself. He shoould be able to be productive with the right coach in the NBA.

Dirk looks like is a bit recovered, but as expected the teams are trying to copy the Warriors defense now. He is more aggressive, gets himself free although the refs are certainly not helping. From what I have seen there is more body contact compared to the last FIBA tourneys and the refs don't blow the whistles unless they really have to. I have no idea why they still have three referees from three different nations, that's just downright dumb. Get the best refs to those tournaments, not anyone to satisfy every association ... 

Greece, Russia, France, Lithuania, Spain and Germany are likely to be the six teams who can win a medal or maybe even the title, can't see someone else getting on the podium right now. 

After three games in three days the schedule will be a bit more moderate for the next six days, but there is no break of more than one day.


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## starvydas (Jul 16, 2002)

My impressions after the first round:

1. I was dead wrong about Russia, largely due to the fact of Andrei Kirilenko playing out of his mind and being an exceptional player in a Euro context. I would not hesitate to put him above Gasol and even Nowitzki as far as playing in a EuroBasket is concerned. His ability to help defensively and his versatility on offense makes Russia a potential threat to win a medal. Russia has allowed on average less than 55 points per game, largely due to his presence and also a nice collective effort. Kirilenko's stats after three games : 17.7 ppg, 14rbg, 3apg, 2bpg, 1.3 spg and 3 TO/game.

2. Slovenia has also been a surprise in the first round. Although _nine_ players refused to be selected prior to the tournament, they still managed to win their three games, including two by a one-point margin. Nesterovic has established himself as the leader of this team and is having a good tournament so far. They have depth inside and can count on Jaka Lakovic's clutchness in tight situation.

3. Where would Germany be without Dirk? Probably home right now. Dirk is scoring at will as usual and this team will not back down. Seems like they always find a different role player in each game to step up and support Nowitzki.

4. Lithuania has been the most impressive team so far. This is a very disciplined team with Jasikevicius being free to run the show, and he does it perfectly. I think they have all the tools to beat Spain and win the gold. If you put their second half effort against Germany aside, they have consistently been destroying opposing teams so far.

5.Looks like Tony Parker has finally found a way to play in a Euro context. He was mind-boggling against Italy (36 points out of his team's 69) and pretty good against Slovenia too, although he missed a free throw with 0.1 second to go that would have sent the game in overtime. But he still dribbles too much on offense and is inconsistent as far as perimeter shooting goes. As a French fan, I must say my team's performance has been a bit dissapointing and the tight loss to Slovenia (after leading by as many as 14 in the third quarter) may prove costly. This team relies too much on Parker, they will need to find other options if they want to seriously contend for the podium. They are set on defense though, which is never a bad thing. Boris Diaw is having a quiet tournament so far, despite showing some flashes of brilliance.

6.For some reason, I dont see Greece being on the podium when it's all said and done. They do have as usual a good defense but they are rusty offensively. Papadopoulos is in a slump and cant seem to find his way to score inside, while Papaloukas has been so-so for them. The injury of Fotsis right before the beginning of the tournament will be seriously detrimental to this team.

7.Nice to see Israel advancing to the final round, they are a fun team to watch. They gave Greece a hard time in the opener and upset Serbia in the deciding game.

8.This is defintitely the end of an era for Serbia, who recorded their worst result in a EuroBasket ever. Although they will have to go home, I dont worry for them, I think they will be back pretty soon on the top European level, as they have a core of extremely talented young players with Milicic leading the way. Zoran Erceg looks more and more like an NBA player by the way, he sure demonstrated some skills as well as toughness in Serbia's game.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

You could be right about Greece, they have been a bit off this far, but they have so much experience that they are always a threat in the knockout stage. They could be out soon, but they could also go all the way to the final again, really not sure about them.


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## PauloCatarino (May 31, 2003)

Portugal!


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## Diophantos (Nov 4, 2004)

Another big win for Israel today! (Over Croatia)

Yaniv Green tearing it up, Halperin and Jeron Roberts playing well too.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

And Spain blowing out Greece, sometimes a loss in the preliminary round is not the worst thing during a tournament.


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## Matej (Aug 14, 2005)

Slovenia-Germany 77:47... Smodis 22, Nowitzki only 16 points


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## SloKid (Mar 30, 2007)

Matej said:


> Slovenia-Germany 77:47... Smodis 22, Nowitzki only 16 points


That was a fantastic game, 30-9 after the first quarter, never in doubt after that.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

:dead:


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## Rule_By_His_Own_Hand (Jun 20, 2006)

I know who this guy is picking.


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## SheriffKilla (Jan 1, 2004)

Slovenia - Greece waht a crazy Game!

58 -42 with 5 minutes left.....

21 - 4 run by greece to win the game!


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## el_Diablo (May 15, 2003)

unbelievable.

papaloukas is god.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

Talk about choking a game away.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

Spain beats Greece, terrific game for most of the 40 minutes except that some Spanish players were flopping all over the court. Gasol looks like Tim Duncan when he is in Europe, doesn't get carried away, always seems to make the right decisions, shoots a high percentage, but most important he is a wall on the defensive end, trying to block everything.


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## Steppenwolf (Jun 13, 2004)

It will be interesting if they give Kirilenko his well deserved MVP. Spain will probably win today, but their team is stacked, moreso than Russia's.

Predictions:

*France* - Slovenia

Slovenia's will is already crushed. The game is pretty important for a 7th place game since the winner gets a place in the pre-olympic tournament.

Croatia - *Germany*

Croatia is better on paper, but I think Germany is more motivated for this one.

Lithunia - *Greece*

The winner is automatically qualified for the Olympics. Again, I think Greece cares more about bronze than Lithunia.

*Spain* - Russia

Spain is just too good and they have home court advantage. Any other result would be a major surprise.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

I agree with all predictions and Spain might even blow out Russia, they haven't shown me anything to believe that they have what it takes to make this game close.


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## el_Diablo (May 15, 2003)

double..


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## el_Diablo (May 15, 2003)

50% from the free throw line is not going to cut it pau. not if you can't make a field goal either.

well, he wasn't the only spaniard to stunk it up, but..


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## SheriffKilla (Jan 1, 2004)

HAHA Russia WINS!! YA BOY!!!

haha what a game...

once again if you look at russia's results when Kirilenko actually plays they are one of the best teams in the World
I think they have a good chance for Olympic Medal if Kirilenko stays healthy but JR Holden is a difference maker too and Khryapa playing really really well in this tournament


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## Steppenwolf (Jun 13, 2004)

My prediction powers have forsaken me! And the one I got right even had some homerism attached to it .

Anyways, great result for Russia.


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## Attila (Jul 23, 2003)

fjkdsi said:


> JR Holden is a difference maker


 His name doesn't sound Russian to me ... :wink:


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

Shocking result, Spain basically gave it away in the last five minutes when nobody else than Pau Gasol seemed to want the ball in his hands anymore. I don't think anyone really thought that Russia could win the title before the tournament, heck I didn't even expect them to make some noise during the tourney ...


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