# My proposal to Senator Kohl; Why we need to draft Andrew Bogut



## DHarris34Phan (Oct 28, 2004)

Senator Kohl, the Milwaukee Bucks are at the crossroads of building a championship calibur franchise. The building all starts with the NBA Draft. With the #1 Overall Pick in this month's Draft, we will have to decide from 2 players; Center Andrew Bogut from Utah, or SF Marvin Williams from North Carolina. From the information that I have gathered, I will make my case to draft Andrew Bogut.

I will start my presentation from looking at the history of championship teams in the NBA. All the way back to 1949, it becomes evident that these teams were centered around a high-quality big man. From George Mikan to Shaquille O'Neal, bigmen have been intracel factors on to who wins championships.

1949, 1950- Minneapolis Lakers (George Mikan)
1951- Rochester Royals (Mikan was out for series, Lakers were best team)
1952-54- Minnepolis Lakers (George Mikan)
1956- Philadelphia Warriors (Nell Johnson)
1958- St. Louis Hawks (Bob Pettitt)
1959-66- Boston Celtics (Bill Russell)
1967- Philadelphia 76ers (Wilt Chamberlain)
1968, 69- Boston Celtics (Bill Russell)
1970- New York Knicks (Willis Reed)
1971- Milwaukee Bucks (Kareem Abdul Jabaar)
1972- Los Angeles Lakers (Wilt Chamberlain)
1973- New York Knicks (Willis Reed)
1977- Portland Trail Blazers (Bill Walton)
1978- Washington Bullets (Wes Unseld)
1980- Los Angeles Lakers (Kareem Abdul-Jabaar)
1981- Boston Celtics (Parish, McHale, Carr)
1982- Los Angeles Lakers (Kareem)
1983- Philadelphia 76ers (Moses Malone)
1984- Boston Celtics (Parish, McHale)
1985- LA Lakers (Kareem)
1986- Boston Celtics (Parish, McHale)
1987-88- LA Lakers (Kareem)
1989-90- Detroit Pistons (Laimbeer, Rodman, Mahorn)
1994-95- Houston Rockets (Hakeem Olajawon)
1999- San Antonio Spurs (Tim Duncan, David Robinson)
2000-02- LA Lakers (Shaquille O'Neal)
2003- San Antionio Spurs (Tim Duncan)
2004- Detroit Pistons (Wallaces)

In regards to the 2 players that we are debating over, Andrew Bogut may be that bigman that helps lead us to a title. At the age of 20, he comes into the league possessing amazing skills and readiness, something we haven't seen in the draft from the Center position since Tim Duncan. Andrew's skills probably puts him into the upper-stratopshere of Centers today from day 1.

Let's take a look at the Center position in today's NBA (age):

Shaquille O'Neal (33)- 22.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.7 apg
Tim Duncan (29)- 20.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.7 apg
Amare Stoudemire (23)- 26.0 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.6 bpg
Yao Ming (25)- 18.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.0 bpg
Ben Wallace (30)- 9.7 ppg, 12.2 rpg, 1.7 apg
Jermaine O'Neal (26)- 24.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.0 bpg
Eddy Curry (22)- 16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, .6 apg
Brad Miller (30)- 15.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.9 apg
Zydrunas Illgauskas (30)- 16.9 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.3 apg
Dwight Howard (20)- 12.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg
Marcus Camby (31)- 10.3 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 2.3 apg
Jamaal Magloire (27)- 11.7, 8.9 rpg, 1.3 apg
Primoz Brezec (25)- 13.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.2 apg
Raef LaFrentz (28)- 11.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.2 apg
Erick Dampier (30)- 9.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, .9 apg
Chris Kamen (24)- 9.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.2 apg
Nenad Krstic (21)- 10.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, .8 bpg
Samuel Dalembert (24)- 8.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg
Brendan Haywood (25)- 9.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.7 bpg
Kurt Thomas (31)- 11.5 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.0 apg
Dan Gadzuric (27)- 7.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.3 bpg
Joel Przybilla (26)- 6.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.1 bpg
Lorenzen Wright (31)- 9.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.1 apg
Chris Mihm (27)- 9.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.4 bpg
Michael Olowokandi (28)- 5.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, .9 bpg
Rafael Araujo (25)- 3.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.3 apg
Jerome James (29)- 4.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.4 bpg
Jarron Collins (25)- 4.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.2 apg
Adonal Foyle (30)- 4.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg
Jason Collier (27)- 5.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, .3 apg

What this shows me is that the Center position, even with the hybrids like JO and Amare, isn't very young, and doesn't have many quality ones to choose from if we would look towards Free Agency to fill the position. By looking at the list, you can tell who the successful teams in the league are by their big man. Of the 3 teams remaining in this years NBA Playoffs, they all have bigmen that are in the upper-esholon of that list.

I think that next year, Andrew Bogut will average 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. That would already put him in the upper-escholon of centers, and at the age of 20, will only continue to develop and get better. I see Bogut in his prime averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game, which would make him a top 5 Center, especially after Shaq, Wallace, Big Z, and Duncan are out of the game.

Right now we have Dan Gadzuric at the Center position, but I feel that he is best suited off the bench, in a 15-20 minute per game role. He averaged 22 minutes/game this season, and he had a great season. With another bigman, Dan's qualities are emphasized off the bench, mainly energy and defense.

If you look at the Free Agent Market for Centers, it has become somewhat of a joke. This past season, Erick Dampier got a 6yr/$60million deal. Look at the amount of production Dallas is getting from him! Adonal Foyle got a 6yr/$48 million deal! 

The free agent Centers on the horizon don't look much better either, sir:

Free Agents for 2005:
Kwame Brown - Will command a fairly big salary, and hasn't proved anything.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas - 30 years old, has become injury prone. Will still command decent $$$.

Samuel Dalembert - Good, young player. Will probably command a deal over the MLE, and probably will be matched by Philadelphia

Tyson Chandler - Chicago has said they will match any offers for TC.

Eddy Curry- A young Center that has begun to produce. He recently has been struck with possibly career threatning health problems. Chicago has said they would also match any offers for Eddy.

Stromile Swift - He has never put up great numbers. I have heard from Memphis sources that he is an underacheiver, has a bad work ethic, and quit on his team in this years playoffs. If we give him money over the longterm, there is a huge chance we will regret it.

Steven Hunter- Still young and unproven. A team looking for a bigman will throw him $$$ around the MLE, probably 5 yrs/25 million dollars. A lot of money for an unproven player.

The attainable players, Hunter, Brown, and Swift, are not worthy of throwing longterm money at. Throwing big $$$ at them takes away our cap flexibility, and we are stuck with question marks. Remember what happened with Anthony Mason and Jason Caffey? They are most of the reason we are in this position right now. Point is, sir, Free Agency isn't the best way to attack the Center position, and being a small market like Milwaukee, getting a guy like Shaq, Amare, or Duncan, even if they were FAs, would be almost impossible to get. Andrew Bogut is probably the best Center that will ever be available for us both on the Free Agent Market or in the Draft in the forseeable future. The fact that we are getting him at 4yrs/15 million dollars, is just icing on the cake. We retain cap flexability, get our big man, and we can use our money in other areas.

With Andrew Bogut, in 2 seasons we would have a foundation of:

PG: TJ Ford(2.3)/ Mo Williams (1.7)
SG: Michael Redd (9)/Eddie Basden (1)
SF: ____________/ Desmond Mason (8)
PF: ____________/ Zaza Pachulia (3)
C: Andrew Bogut (3)/ Dan Gadzuric (5)

This assumes that we re-sign Redd at 9 million dollars per year, Zaza at 3, and Gadz at 5, all realistic predictions. With this foundation, our salaries add up to 33 million dollars. With the new Salary Cap probably going to be around 48 million dollars, that leaves us with 15 million dollars for Free Agency. Over the course of 2 seasons, this team will have developed, and barring no trades of Smith, Booth, or Picks to fill in the blanks already, is probably one player away from being a true championship contender. That player will probably be the SF that is missing. 

Take a look at the SF position right now in the NBA, sir (age):

LeBron James (20)- 27.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 7.2 apg
Tracy McGrady (25)- 25.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.7 apg
Ron Artest (25)- 24.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.1 apg
Carmelo Anthony (21)- 20.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.6 apg
Peja Stojakovic (27)- 20.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.1 apg
Rashard Lewis (25)- 20.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.3 apg
Richard Jefferson (24)- 22.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 4.0 apg
Andrei Kirilenko (24)- 15.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.2 apg
Tayshaun Prince (25)- 14.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg
Paul Pierce (27)- 21.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 4.2 apg
Joe Johnson (23)- 17.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.5 apg
Antawn Jamison (28)- 19.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.3 apg
Grant Hill (32)- 19.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.3 apg
Stephan Jackson (26)- 18.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.3 apg
Josh Howard (25)- 12.6 ppg, 6.2 apg, 1.4 apg
Caron Butler (25)- 15.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.8 apg
Bobby Simmons (25)- 16.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.7 apg
Jalen Rose (32)- 18.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.6 apg
Luol Deng (20)- 11.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.2 apg
Desmond Mason (28)- 17.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.7 apg
Darius Miles (24)- 12.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.0 apg
Tim Thomas (27)- 12.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.5 apg
Mike Dunleavy (24)- 13.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.6 apg
Josh Smith (20)- 9.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.7 apg
Andre Igoudala (21)- 9.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.0 apg
Shane Battier (26)- 9.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 apg
Latrell Sprewell (34)- 12.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg
Gerald Wallace (23)- 11.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 apg
Bruce Bowen (33)- 8.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.5 apg
Eddie Jones (32)- 12.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg
Lee Nailon (30)- 14.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.6 apg

This list shows me that there is a huge number of very young SFs in the NBA, and there are many more coming up through college and HS. I think that the Free Agent Market is the best way to fill the SF position. This offseason, young guys like Bobby Simmons, Joe Johnson, and Gerald Wallace will all be free agents. Next year, guys like Mike Dunleavy, Jr, Tim Thomas, Caron Butler, and our own Desmond Mason are FAs. None of these guys outside of Johnson will command HUGE salaries, but they all are showing that they can produce, and they are still young. With our 15 million dollars of capspace, we will easily be able to sign a VERY good SF, and still have $$$ left over.

The list also shows me that teams with superstar SFs aren't the ones leading their teams deep in the playoffs. The three teams that are still alive right now in the playoffs have Tayshaun Prince, Bruce Bowen, and Eddie Jones as their starting SFs.

By drafting Marvin Williams, we would be throwing him into the most saturated position in the NBA, and looking at players like Rashard Lewis, Ron Artest, and Tracy McGrady, it takes a few years for these players to make an impact, especially on a contending team. An example of these growing pains would be Atlanta's Josh Smith, who was ranked ahead of Marvin Williams last year. Josh Smith has the potential to be a great one, like Williams, but in his first season only averaged 9 and 6. I don't think that we would be getting much more out of Marvin, probably around 13/6. I don't think that we are in the position to wait for his potential, especially at the expense of losing teams, and maybe even losing him after his rookie contract is over.

We already have All Star Talent around Andrew Bogut. TJ Ford and Michael Redd are all capable of being top 5 in their position, and Desmond Mason is one of the best 6th men in the league. With his supreme passing ability and his unselfishness, Andrew Bogut only makes them better. With All Star quailty at the PG, SG, and Center position, that is a blueprint for a championship team.

So, Mr. Kohl, from all the information that I have gathered, the best choice would be to pick Andrew Bogut. History has shown us that bigmen decide championships, and the Bucks haven't had one since Kareem, when we won the title! By choosing Marvin Williams, we are mortgaging our future hoping that he reaches his potential, and still leaving our frontcourt in a very weak condition. Looking at the top tier SF's in the league, it tells me that having a Superstar doesn't equate to championships. Looking at the Center position in Free Agency and in the Draft, there is nothing that leads me to believe we will ever be able to find a bigman like Bogut. 

Andrew Bogut is the pick.


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## hirschmanz (Jun 3, 2005)

:clap: well stated


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## DHarris34Phan (Oct 28, 2004)

hirschmanz said:


> :clap: well stated


Thanks...this was probably my longest, and most thought out thread EVER. I want some more feedback! :biggrin:


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## Tersk (Apr 9, 2004)

Did you send it to him, that was amazing


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## DHarris34Phan (Oct 28, 2004)

Theo! said:


> Did you send it to him, that was amazing


No...I am hoping he reads the boards :biggrin:


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## Drk Element (Nov 10, 2004)

I am Senator Kohl (wink). I was very thrilled about your proposition. I will make sure i work on it right away.

June 28, draft day, Bucks are up.....
"With the first pick in the 2005 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select..........
Tiras Wade", (crowd goes:noooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!)


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