# That bad? ESPN Eastern Conference Predictions



## changv10 (Apr 25, 2005)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=SummerForecast10-EastStandings

No respect whatsoever. Last in the East. I guess they had to pick someone. We are in a bad position after the summer. Whatever - I'm surprised the Pacers are that high up.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

I only hope that they're correct. I'd rather finish last then end up with a late lottery pick.


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## lucky777s (Nov 13, 2003)

27 wins is about right but that will not be last in the East. There will be 1 or 2 teams around 23 wins or less. If we do end with 27 wins we probably go into the lotto in a 4-6 slot.

I think our worst case record is in the 18-21 range because we feasted on the botton dwellers last year, going 20-0 against a chunk of them I believe, and some of them have improved while we declined.

With a few miracles, alien interventions (not the Euro or Mexican kind), and some hardcore partying by visiting teams before games our absolute top would seem to be 34 wins. We have no star or go-to player and no real playmakers right now.

CLE losing Lebron would not be so bad if they did not also lose both legit C's they had on the roster. They will suffer badly without any interior presence to hide their mediocre wings. DET had a lot of injuries last year but I am just not a believer anymore. I remember thinking that injuries were the only thing slowing down the 2002-2004 Raps but the truth was that team was done - and so are the Pistons. NJ could pass both those teams if Avery can get them to play D.

IND looks decent on paper but they always seem to fade with injuries. WAS is a crapshoot - hard to believe how bad they were last year with Butler, Jamison, Haywood, McGee and Arenas when he played. Would be silly to expect a big year from them until they prove something.

This bottom group is pretty bad and one or two teams will really suffer a horrible year under 20 wins.


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## Junkyard Dog13 (Aug 9, 2003)

We will be better than Jersey, Indy, Wizards, Philly& Detriot, about 10th is realistic, 8 could become relistic with Prince


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## billfindlay10 (Jan 24, 2003)

I say there should be no way Cleavland finishes with a better record than us, Washington, Philly, Indiana, New Jersey, and Detroit are all a coin flip.


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## Junkyard Dog13 (Aug 9, 2003)

1. Miami
2. Orlando 
3. Boston
4. Atlanta
5. Chicago
6. Milwaukee
7. Charlotte
8. NY
9. Toronto 33-37 wins
10 Washington
11 Philly 
12 Indiana
13 Detriot
14 New Jersey
15 Cleveland


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## Dee-Zy (Jan 12, 2006)

Cleveland has Mo Will, Jamison and hickson still.

Raps have Calderon, Barbosa and Bargnani?

Despite having LeBron last year, they still had a 60+ wins team.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

I think Toronto, Cleveland, and Washington will be battling it out for last in the East. I also think there will be a team with 20 wins or less, though. 27 seems a bit high.


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## Junkyard Dog13 (Aug 9, 2003)

jamison is on the wrongaside of 30, mo williams sucks, hickson is alright, noit much blue chips they have now, no decent bigman

I like Bargnani Barbosa Derozan Jhonson over Mo Jamison and Hickson


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## Dee-Zy (Jan 12, 2006)

Doesn't mean that you like them over them that you are right. Cleveland is still more talented than Toronto.

Are you implying that the supporting cast of Bosh was better than the supporting cast of Lebron?

Don't think so.


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## lucky777s (Nov 13, 2003)

Dee-Zy said:


> Doesn't mean that you like them over them that you are right. Cleveland is still more talented than Toronto.
> 
> Are you implying that the supporting cast of Bosh was better than the supporting cast of Lebron?
> 
> Don't think so.


Losing both their C's is going to hurt them though. They have zero inside presence at either end now. Its not just Lebron leaving.


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## ballocks (May 15, 2003)

i wish it was that bad. not that i encourage bottoming out, i think the perennially bad teams (like minny, new york, clips, kings, warriors, nets) bottom out 'properly' every year- i.e. every single year with seemingly no end- but with no leader in the locker room, we can't live like this either.

i just sympathize with all raptor fans right now. this was not part of the plan. this was in all likelihood avoidable. as it stands, we're getting raked over the coals every week. anyone read the bosh 'media' story today, about his endorsement benefits in miami, etc.? and yet more talk about the colangelo debacle? and now indiana acquiring collision instead of calderon? the canadian media is eating this **** up at our expense, imo, which is exactly what i had feared, and was one of the most important reasons why fans like myself had wanted to re-sign bosh at all costs. it wasn't even about bosh. it was about... _this_- because this is much worse. have we even hit the bottom yet? dayamm. could've fooled me.

peace


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## roux (Jun 20, 2006)

On paper you guys look terrible im not going to lie..but last year people were saying the same thing about my bucks and look what happened..you just need somethings to go right and find a direction and anythings possible


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

Dee-Zy said:


> Doesn't mean that you like them over them that you are right. Cleveland is still more talented than Toronto.
> 
> Are you implying that the supporting cast of Bosh was better than the supporting cast of Lebron?
> 
> Don't think so.


You know what's funny though, 3 of Cleveland's top 8 next year were all part of Chris Bosh's supporting cast. Joey Graham and Anthony Parker will likely be starting and Jamario Moon would be the first wing player off the bench. This isn't a scenario where I'm wondering if those guys are any good, I know they're no good because I've watched them for at least 2 seasons.

Mo Williams was on a 26 win team before he joined Cleveland. Antawn Jamison this time last year was on a 19 win team. These guys aren't winners and when you replace Lebron with our good friend Joey Graham and then you get rid of Shaq and Z you end up with a train wreck for a team.

If you want to ask me flat out who will have a better record next year assuming the rosters stay as they are right now, I will have to say the Raptors by about 3-5 wins. We're talking about the difference between a 25 win team and perhaps a 28 win team, not a whole lot of difference. A 35 year old Jamison is hardly better than Bargnani and I'm no fan of Mo Williams since his days in Milwaukee.

I can't wait to watch the Cavs next year. People are finally going to see what sort of scrubs Lebron has been playing with all these years.


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## Dee-Zy (Jan 12, 2006)

seifer0406 said:


> You know what's funny though, 3 of Cleveland's top 8 next year were all part of Chris Bosh's supporting cast. Joey Graham and Anthony Parker will likely be starting and Jamario Moon would be the first wing player off the bench. This isn't a scenario where I'm wondering if those guys are any good, I know they're no good because I've watched them for at least 2 seasons.
> 
> Mo Williams was on a 26 win team before he joined Cleveland. Antawn Jamison this time last year was on a 19 win team. These guys aren't winners and when you replace Lebron with our good friend Joey Graham and then you get rid of Shaq and Z you end up with a train wreck for a team.
> 
> ...


I guess you have a point. I think you are underrating Mo Will though. The reasons his team didn't win much before the cavs was because they were injured all the time.


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## ballocks (May 15, 2003)

i'll just take it out on whoever's listening- i'm so tired of fans wanting to rebuild. it's folly unless you have a substantial helping of good luck on your side- correction: _great_ luck. what's more, i don't think the raptors _can_ rebuild. granted, they have a team of role players but imo they may have more nba-calibre pros on this raptor team than... ever? does that even make sense? it may not make sense but it doesn't matter- imo, that's what we're seeing. 

but let's ignore that for a second. let's say this team sees some major injuries to jarrett jack, demar derozan and/or andrea bargani this season, 'paving the way' for a 60-loss season. let's also assume they win the lottery in may. 

so who's coming?

at best, we'll get a 19 or 20 year-old project who'll be thrown to the wolves immediately. unless his last name is durant, that's hardly an enviable position to be in. further, how long will it take to compete with that team led by said college prospect with no prior experience in or appreciation of toronto (which is an animal to overcome in itself)? by that point we'll be looking at, what, 10 years without a competitive team? can you say toronto clippers? maybe we _should_ change our name to 'huskies'- at which point we can truly rival the timberwolves as we seem wont to do. and then we'll be asking him to re-sign and 'finish the job' after all that losing, having laid a foundation of hardship and controversy over his first five seasons? shoot me now.

for those of you who've been here for some years, recall our friend blowuptheraptors. wasn't he advocating pretty much the same thing (in 2003? shoot me... wait, already used that one ) we're hearing now: to dump vince and start over 'properly'? and isn't that what we did? we got a nice tough centre to change our passive culture... we added some blue-chippers through seasoned ncaa programs in connecticut and oklahoma state... we added a future point guard prospect (roko, not jose) to build around... how'd that turn out? mind you, at least we had a bona fide franchise cornerstone behind vince back then. think what you will of bosh, but fans were speaking faaaaaaaaar more glowingly of his future as a 19 year-old than anyone named harrison barnes, kyrie irving or percy jones today.

in other words, maybe he didn't turn out- but who's to say that _they will_? 

and can you imagine any of them being more cordial and accepting of our paralyzed city culture and bruised history than the willfully open-minded chris bosh? 

i'm not saying they won't. i'm just saying the probability is small. is it really worth it to put your money in that deck? 

"those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." 

i used to scoff at that quote, especially when people were referring to vince. i remember defending the raptors by saying not everyone is like vince. but we've now had a vince, a damon and a bosh- as diverse a trifecta of personalities as you could develop- and the results have been astoundingly similar. as far as i'm concerned, short of a miracle, this is not going to work- even if it goes as planned.

think back to bosh now. i can hardly imagine things going any better than they did. he wasn't thrown in the fire as a rookie, carter was here for his first year and a half, jalen was here for his first three- both skilled at handling a demanding media contingent- capspace was there for his fourth, which was conveniently coupled with the #1 overall pick to find his battery mate, and what happened? where's the payoff? i'm still waiting for it. all their excuses over the years have led me to think it's still coming...?

and before you blame everything on bosh, remember that he just earned a maximum contract from the miami heat. he's a five-time all-star and dream team olympian. he may not be michael, no- but he's no slouch. i'd lay less of the blame at his feet than i would at the strategy in the first place:

choosing to lose in order to plant the seed for a brighter future works well on a computer. it works well in a textbook. but in the real world (two key words), it's awfully dangerous. it almost never works unless you get a once-in-a-generation superstar like kevin durant to fall in your lap. and i mean, the blazers could've scored kevin durant that year- and wouldn't have needed to 'bottom out' to do it. 

bottoming out is just a foolish strategy, imo, through and through. to consciously bottom out in a lottery system (as we have in the nba) is, for me, beyond words impotent. you need some viagra to get it up even if the intent is there.

so what should the raptors do? i honestly think their only hope right now is to somehow develop derozan alongside davis- and more the former than the latter. & that by default (i.e. less to do with their talents) because they have no alternative. considering this team is capped out (which is a miracle in its own right) their hands are tied in every which way. and it doesn't involve losing- which is something they probably couldn't do even if they wanted it considering the presence of jarrett jack, andrea bargnani, jose calderon, leandro barbosa and linas kleiza- i.e. pros in their primes, however insignificant. anytime you have five guys like that on your roster, you will win 30+ games, if only from all those meetings with true bottom-dwellers and ne'er beens.

my last remaining hope is to develop some kind of a competitive culture, so that when you do have capspace you'll be able to keep your top stars energized by attracting other pieces and controlling the abuse from starving media sharks all over the continent. you can't continue to lose your franchise stars at the peak of their powers (which is the period you drafted and developed them for in the first place!), go on a conscious 'rebuild' (again), roll out a(nother) five-year plan amidst habitual losing and expect to thrive on the other side. teams don't have that kind of patience, fans definitely don't have that kind of patience but most importantly, *players* don't have that kind of patience either.

it sucks, man. cleveland's worse off than we are, no question, but we're alone in second. these two teams have been devastated by their losses- but for completely different reasons. the cavs lost their native son, their savior, arguably the best player in the world; the raptors lost not just a great player but _another_ great player (that's the key) from a team that can hardly afford to lose any more great players, seeing as they've been ravaged enough already. 

so forgive me for not supporting a plan to build around a player born in 1992. the winning _has to_ begin now- even if it can't.

peace


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## speedythief (Jul 16, 2003)

^ Can't believe you're still investing that amount of time on this team, b.


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## lucky777s (Nov 13, 2003)

> i'll just take it out on whoever's listening


on most days here that would be me and my cat.



> i'm so tired of fans wanting to rebuild


Nobody really *wants* to rebuild but when you are not a playoff team and lose your best player for nothing you don't have much choice.

POR, ATL, CHI (on the second try) have built nice teams through the draft. PHI was on the right path but failed. NJ is building nicely through the draft. MEM and SAC are building nicely that way. It is just as viable a strategy as any other. DEN's resurgence is mainly because of drafting Carmelo and Nene and filling in with trades and signings. I don't see the Raps becoming a top 4 seed without at least 1 more great draft pick and probably 2-3.



> let's say this team sees some major injuries to jarrett jack, demar derozan and/or andrea bargani this season, 'paving the way' for a 60-loss season. let


I don't think we need any major injuries to be a 22-60 team. Not when we will likely be under 30 wins to start with.



> at best, we'll get a 19 or 20 year-old project who'll be thrown to the wolves immediately.


That is what it takes though, a little luck. You get that game changer. A Paul Pierce, a Kobe Bryant, a DwightHoward, a Carmelo, a Paul, a DeronWilliams, or Josh Smith. Heck, we would take a Ginobli, Parker, Boozer, Arenas, type of second round miracle. That changes everything.

That is why I propose that MLSE use their money to buy as many picks as possible, first and second round. Get more chances of picking that stud. You can be over the cap or tax and still buy picks. I am surprised the Knicks don;t do that. Maybe they will once they use up all the cap space to fill around guys.



> dump vince and start over 'properly'? and isn't that what we did?


No we did not. We were on that path but BC came in and scrapped it, wasting our cap space on older vets who would be extremely difficult to replace in 3 years. That is what screwed us up, we did not stick to it.

We are going to be bad this year. So if being a little bit worse gets us a better chance at the draft pick we badly need then I don't see the harm in wanting that to happen. The Cavs were happy to tank for Bron, like the Spurs were for Robinson and Duncan.

After this year hopefully DeMar and Sonny take a big step forward and Bargs is a legit 20/7 player with good efficiency. We add a high draft pick to a position of need and sign a full MLE player or take a good player whose team wants to dump the contract and suddenly we have a chance at becoming a 2nd or 3rd round playoff team over the next 2 years or so. The right player makes that happen.

If the current roster has no star talent anyway than nothing will really matter this year anyway. The hope of the draft is all we have.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

ballocks said:


> at best, we'll get a 19 or 20 year-old project who'll be thrown to the wolves immediately. unless his last name is durant, that's hardly an enviable position to be in. further, how long will it take to compete with that team led by said college prospect with no prior experience in or appreciation of toronto (which is an animal to overcome in itself)? by that point we'll be looking at, what, 10 years without a competitive team?


It's not as impossible to rebuild quickly through the draft as you contend, here. Let's look at the last 10 years.

In the 2000 season, the Bulls basically tanked. Then, they traded their franchise cornerstone (Elton Brand) that offseason for a draft pick. Then, they completely botched the draft by choosing Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry over Pau Gasol and Jason Richardson. the following year they were bad again, wound up with the #2 pick, took the right guy (Jayson Williams), and wound up losing him to a career-ending injury that took place off the court. Still, the Bulls found themselves in the playoffs 2 years after that. They've only made one trip to the lottery since then, and now have one of the best up-and-coming teams in basketball.

The 4 worst records in the league in the 2002 season belonged to the Cavs, Nuggets, Heat, and Raptors. The Heat have won a title since then, and now seem poised to win a few more. The Nuggets haven't missed the playoffs one time since then and have consistently been in contention in a loaded western conference. The Cavs experienced several years of success that exceeded anything the franchise had seen previously. The only team on that list that hasn't greatly improved (besides one Atlantic division championship year) has been your Raptors.

In the 2003 season, the Magic had the league's worst team. They had a great draft (Dwight Howard) and went on to be a contender in the East 3 years down the road.

The worst 3 teams in 2004 were New Orleans, Atlanta, and Utah. New Orleans and Utah both wound up with top 10 players in the league and franchise cornerstones (CP3 and DWill). Oh, and Atlanta messed up their pick by taking Marvin Williams over those two PGs. Despite that, they experienced 5 years of steady improvement after that draft.

The worst team in the NBA in 2005 was the Portland Trailblazers. They left that draft with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. They built a very strong contender with a very bright future from those pieces.

In 2006, Milwaukee, Boston, Seattle, and Memphis were the worst teams. Boston managed to trade their pick for Ray Allen. Allen was enough to entice Kevin Garnett to want to be in Boston as well. They went on to win a championship. The team they traded with (Seattle) wound up with 2 franchise cornerstones in that draft (Durant and Jeff Green). They are now a serious contender in the West. Milwaukee managed to build a solid core around the guy they got in that draft (Bogut), and Memphis has built themselves a nice young core with a bright future since that year as well.

The Kings bottomed out in 2008. Now they have some nice pieces in Cousins and Evans that could have them in playoff contention in 2 years.

I have said it many times: the highest probability for success in this league will always be good top 5 draft picks. Sure you can find a needle in a haystack once in a while, but most of the time losing a lot of games for a year or two makes you a contender a couple years later unless you completely screw up the draft. It works, folks.


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## ballocks (May 15, 2003)

lucky777s said:


> *No we did not*. We were on that path but BC came in and scrapped it, wasting our cap space on older vets who would be extremely difficult to replace in 3 years. That is what screwed us up, we did not stick to it.
> 
> We are going to be bad this year. So if being a little bit worse gets us a better chance at the draft pick we badly need then I don't see the harm in wanting that to happen. The Cavs were happy to tank for Bron, like the Spurs were for Robinson and Duncan.


i disagree with you vehemently. the fans who feel the raptors didn't rebuild properly are, imo, complaining about the _result_ and not the strategy.

the raptors dumped vince for two firsts. in the end, they had chris bosh (#4 in 2003) +

#8 (2004)
#7 and #16 in a relatively deep draft (2005)
*#1* (2006)

+ capspace in 2006.

what else do 'you' want? that's four years of torture... do you really need a fifth?

i don't know how much more building through the draft anyone can do, especially considering the lamond murray conditional hanging around their necks for half a decade. the fact that hoffa (and bargnani?) turned out garbage is precisely the point- the draft is a crapshoot regardless. _picks_ will never win the race- it always come down to _players_.

stockpiling picks is a half-strategy. you have as much chance of snaring shawn marion as you do alek radojevic. the risk inherent in stocking draft picks, imo, far outweighs the reward. 

you can complain about colangelo using his 2006 capspace on unproven euros but that's just looking back with 20/20 clarity. it's not real.

you may not always have a choice, but _choosing to lose_ is always silly. people don't even know what they're getting into when they suggest it. they need to be protected from themselves, imo. 

peace


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

ballocks said:


> i disagree with you vehemently. the fans who feel the raptors didn't rebuild properly are, imo, complaining about the _result_ and not the strategy.


Read my post above. This is essentially my point. You cannot call it a flaw in the strategy when 12 different franchises used this exact strategy with good success in the last 10 years. Your team didn't execute it well, but that doesn't make the strategy flawed.


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## ballocks (May 15, 2003)

RollWithEm said:


> It's not as impossible to rebuild quickly through the draft as you contend, here. Let's look at the last 10 years.
> 
> In the 2000 season, the Bulls basically tanked. Then, they traded their franchise cornerstone (Elton Brand) that offseason for a draft pick. Then, they completely botched the draft by choosing Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry over Pau Gasol and Jason Richardson. the following year they were bad again, wound up with the #2 pick, took the right guy (Jayson Williams), and wound up losing him to a career-ending injury that took place off the court. Still, the Bulls found themselves in the playoffs 2 years after that. They've only made one trip to the lottery since then, and now have one of the best up-and-coming teams in basketball.
> 
> ...


i don't share your logic at all. i don't even agree with the cases you mention. first of all, 2003: cleveland, denver, miami, raptors. i don't think you can call one juggernaut draft "building through the draft" so much as it qualifies for fluke city. is the 'strategy' to bottom-out in order to pray to high heaven at the lottery desk for one miracle outcome? no offense but, spare me.

and miami? i wonder if shaq was part of their draft strategy. and did stern go up to the microphone in june and say, "with the 51st pick in the second round, the miami heat select dwyane wade, lebron james and chris bosh"? come on. 

orlando in 2004. i don't call that building through the draft, either. i call that having a bad year because the two max free agents you signed three years earlier were injured and left you with no choice but to put your name in the hat. yes, it turned out dwight howard. no, it wasn't intentional. so i won't- can't- give them any credit for that.

portland 2006. i guess they've been relatively successful- among the rest of the teams here, anyway- but you do know they've missed the playoffs twice in four years, right? and, just like the raptors, they managed to pair their drafted stars with a #1 overall pick (i.e. more draft fun)... and still, what... minimal payoff? at best? mediocrity nba-style? i do think it's a fluke that their good fortune hasn't paid off but still... they don't support your argument yet, that's all, imo.

milwaukee 2006? seriously? i'd say milwaukee 2009- that one pick _alone_- was their capture of lightning in a bottle. i mean, can you honestly attribute last year's success to their draft picks of 2006, 07, 08? if anyone's guilty of tossing draft picks to the wind, it's the milwaukee bucks. and even the ones they kept didn't always turn out (joe alexander). bogut (another #1 pick) has been there for five years without so much celebration. and that's sort of my point. you can keep picks until the cows come home. but until you use them to draft stars, they're just picks. 

boston 2006- you're using boston to build your case? is that not the one team you should be ignoring? is the trading away of draft picks the equivalent of building through the draft? because then everybody would be building through the draft, wouldn't they? boston is a shining example, imo, of a team that clearly abandoned the draft philosophy. they moved their projects onto other teams for players who were star ready and reaped the benefits overnight. perhaps they embody the exception to the rule, as well, but you certainly can't use them to defend the merits of *lose now*.

seattle 2006- i already addressed the durant... er, miracle. 

memphis 200x- come on, man. yes, they're well on their way- as they've been since 1995. yes, the timberwolves are well on their way, too. so are the warriors, the kings, the clippers, the knicks, nets, sixers, hornets, pacers, wizards, etc. you can't honestly use the future to support someone's past draft record. it doesn't work like that, i'm afraid. potential is not proof. memphis is neither here nor there, they bottomed out when they dealt gasol in 2008 and are, incredibly, hardly any closer to winning the big enchilada today. the lakers, meanwhile, dumped their futures on the grizz (including the other promising young gasol) and immediately made the finals, then won the title in successive years and here we are today. i wonder whose strategy has paid off and continues to do.

i agree that top-5 picks have historically been difference makers. but there are so many exceptions it's not even funny. and consciously bottoming out in order to just put yourself _in a position_ to get them (because that's all you can do) causes more harm than good. in other words: you lose, you lose. fine. your star goes down to injury and you wave the flag on a season, so be it. fine. but to consciously look forward to losing games is where cancers are born. 'encouraging' losing (or insert euphemism here if you have another way of looking at it) can quickly become *a fear of winning*- and when that takes hold, good night and good luck.

peace


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## Babe Ruth (Dec 6, 2006)

I don't expect more than 30 wins from the Raptors this season, but they could upset a few teams along the way. The Raptors will be relying on some youth this season. Can DeRozan step up and become a go-to guy this season? Only time will tell. Can Andrea improve from his last season? I sure hope so. It will be a long year for Raptors fan, but lets hope players like Davis, DeRozan, Wright and others show some promise.


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## jayk009 (Aug 6, 2003)

just don't think they have right kind of coaching staff to surprise people and win games they shouldn't. 

If this team can turn into another Ben Wallace and Darryl Armtrong led Orlando Magic or Carlos Arroyo and Andrei Kirilenko led Jazz teams then I will definately be tuning it.


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## Boob-No-More (Apr 24, 2006)

Looking at your current roster, I'd have to say 27 wins is rather optimistic. I'm thinking 20 - 22 is about right. Every other team in your division got better, in some cases significantly better, and you got significantly worse. Remember, two years ago you won only 33 games and that was with Bosh for 77 games and a better supporting cast. Bargnani has gotten better, but Calderon has gotten worse. So, that's a wash. Your three best players are Bargnani, Calderon and Jack - all three are average to below average starters (at best) with glaring weaknesses in their games.

Last year your team defensive rating (113.2) was, by far, the worst in the league and you were in the bottom 25% in offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. And, without Bosh, you're going to be worse in those two key areas.

Will the Raptors finish last in the East? Hard to say. It's certainly a possibility, but one of the other really bad teams could suffer significant injuries or just decide to tank and lose games for better odds in the lottery. So, I expect best case 22 wins and 2nd to last in the East, or worst case 20 wins and dead last in the conference.

BNM


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## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

ballocks said:


> i agree that top-5 picks have historically been difference makers. but there are so many exceptions it's not even funny. and consciously bottoming out in order to just put yourself _in a position_ to get them (because that's all you can do) causes more harm than good. in other words: you lose, you lose. fine. your star goes down to injury and you wave the flag on a season, so be it. fine. but to consciously look forward to losing games is where cancers are born. 'encouraging' losing (or insert euphemism here if you have another way of looking at it) can quickly become *a fear of winning*- and when that takes hold, good night and good luck.


Stockpiling youth and keeping cap flexibility is much different than "planning to lose". Signing role players to medium-sized, multi-year contracts before you have the players for them to support in place is putting the cart before the horse and a sure way to win up in salary cap hell without the flexibility to extract yourself from a bad situation. Like it or not, the winning _can't_ begin now, because they simply don't have the personnel for it. What you're advocating is the approach taken by the Pacers in the wake of the Artest brawl, and they're _still_ sitting on bad contracts from players who were the best they could get at the time. All Indiana has to show it is a string of 30-something win seasons. The team is capped out _because_ Toronto decided to go with solid but unspectacular vets in Calderon, Kleiza, Johnson, and Jack instead of dumping them for picks and financial flexibility. 

In short, the team's not going to experience any real long-term success until they land another star. The draft is one way to do that, so are trades and free agency. However, Toronto's somewhat handicapped in free agency because they're a cold-weather city with high taxes. Trades and the draft are intertwined because when a team wants to unload a star they typically look for young talent with which to rebuild, ideally still on rookie deals. High draft picks are the surest way to accumulate young players with promise, either for development or trade. Keep in mind that while Boston traded for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett(by giving away draft picks and/or young talent they developed, for the record), they also drafted and developed Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, and Kendrick Perkins.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

Bogg said:


> The team is capped out _because_ Toronto decided to go with solid but unspectacular vets in Calderon, Kleiza, Johnson, and Jack instead of dumping them for picks and financial flexibility.


With the exception of Calderon it's hard to call the rest of the players "vets" as in old players that shouldn't be on a young team. Jack is 26, Kleiza is 25 and Johnson is 23. While Amir Johnson may be overpaid he does have a lot of upside at that age and has shown to be a solid role player. The only real bad contract the Raptors have at this point is Calderon. By getting rid of Turkoglu for Barbosa the Raptors basically have shed half of their headache. 

As far as being mediocre goes, after watching the preseason I've seen enough to put the "What if the Raptors win too many games" thought aside. This team will be in the 20-25 win range and will end up with a very high pick. Depending on the moves that the Raptors makes from here the future isn't as grim as some might see it. Bargnani will put up better numbers (though he may not necessarily be a better player) and should drive up his trade stock if the Raptors decide to get rid of him. Barbosa will likely opt out next year which is another 7.6 mil off the books. The only problem right now is Calderon, I fear that it may be another year or 2 before he becomes moveable in any trade.


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## SickGame (Jan 23, 2006)

We're going to be terrible. I'm not even sure why anyone would debate it otherwise. 

To whomever who thinks we're better than the Pacers or the Wiz or even the Nets are horribly mistaken. All three of those teams have better players than we do. Maybe not the Nets but Lopez is a beast that will dominate us in the paint. Pacers have Granger and a strong young supporting cast. The Wiz have Wall, Blatche, Arenas (say what you will but he's better than anyone on our roster, which is sad sad sad).

I think Philli is going to be horrible as well. Either than that, I see us contending for a top 5 pick with ease.


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## ballocks (May 15, 2003)

SickGame said:


> We're going to be terrible. I'm not even sure why anyone would debate it otherwise.
> 
> To whomever who thinks we're better than the Pacers or the Wiz or even the Nets are horribly mistaken. All three of those teams have better players than we do. Maybe not the Nets but Lopez is a beast that will dominate us in the paint. Pacers have Granger and a strong young supporting cast. The Wiz have Wall, Blatche, Arenas (say what you will but he's better than anyone on our roster, which is sad sad sad).
> 
> I think Philli is going to be horrible as well. Either than that, I see us contending for a top 5 pick with ease.


i think the schedule will have a huge bearing on whether we win or lose. if every game were played on opening night, with our opponents all healthy and upbeat, then sure, i think we could lose 60+. 

thing is, the nba has an extended period of dog days. teams that are done know it pretty early- how many heroic runs happen late in the nba season? i'd say fewer than other sports- and as a result, star players sit out and/or teams take their foot off the pedal, etc.

depending on schedule, i'd say there are at least 20 games like that every year. and with our team (roster long on quantity and short on quality) i don't see much of a drop off. think friendly february last year- _that's_ when we made our run (i.e. when everyone else was lax), if you can even call it that. we were just taking advantage of a weak schedule coupled with total apathy on the part of our opponents. 

i see the same thing happening this year: falling to superior opponents on a regular basis but slaughtering opponents who don't want to be there. of course, i still envision fewer wins since chris is gone, but not as many as you.

either way, we're in the middle of nowhere imo. i'd say 30 wins. maybe #10 pick in the draft. capped out. stuck in molasses. maybe 11/12 will be bargnani's breakout year. if not, maybe 12/13. cap flexibility in 2015 when he comes off the books. we'll conceivably have >$75 million cap room in 2016, as well. then we can make our splash. 

peace


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## Boob-No-More (Apr 24, 2006)

Boob-No-More said:


> So, I expect best case 22 wins and 2nd to last in the East


Congrats, you hit my best case projection right on the nose - 22 wins and 2nd to last in the East.

BNM


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Boob-No-More said:


> Congrats, you hit my best case projection right on the nose - 22 wins and 2nd to last in the East.
> 
> BNM


That's better than I expected as well. It's weird to call a 22-win season successful, but I kind of think this one was for the Raps. It's funny reading this thread and seeing how many people thought Toronto was better than Philly.


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## ballocks (May 15, 2003)

well, that was just about the most painful season in history. finally done. 

contrary to what i've said in the past, in a way i just hope triano was tanking intentionally here. last night: davis, derozan, bayless and? ... ajinca, wright, dorsey, johnson and alabi. that's a wow. i just hope it was a tank- but at the same time it's a little unnerving to watch triano in the post game scrum, near tears about all the injuries _last night_. it's like, is this team starting to believe its own b.s.? 

i mean, the performance is scary. it's like he honestly believes barbosa, weems, calderon, bargnani, evans and amir were all unable to go. the fact that he can pull that off scares the **** out of me. if i was his wife i'd be worried... this man is doing it with a straight face.

either way, at least they got a pick out of it. they need to hit a home run now. derozan actually lost 60 games this year. that's unbelievable. they need to turn things around *now*- you don't lose 60 games and come out of it a champion.

peace


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