# If you have the #1 pick in the draft and you get...



## ChrisWoj (May 17, 2005)

If you have pick #1 and you come away with a player that amounts to Andre Iguodala for you - is that a win?


Just curious. A lot of people seem to expect a superstar every single year, and anything short of it is a disappointment. AI has been just below superstar status, he'd need a legendary supporting cast to be the top billing star on a championship team. He's just not going to be "the man" on a championship team.


So are you disappointed if your #1 pick can never get you that?


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## Bucks4Ever91 (Sep 17, 2013)

Yes, I'd definitely be disappointed. It's the circle of life in the NBA for a #1 pick to be a star not necessarily a superstar but something better than a fringe all-star like Iguodala, and then one of the stars in the league becomes over the hill.


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## BlakeJesus (Feb 1, 2006)

Was that the best I could have done?


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

ChrisWoj said:


> If you have pick #1 and you come away with a player that amounts to Andre Iguodala for you - is that a win?
> 
> 
> Just curious. A lot of people seem to expect a superstar every single year, and anything short of it is a disappointment. AI has been just below superstar status, he'd need a legendary supporting cast to be the top billing star on a championship team. He's just not going to be "the man" on a championship team.
> ...


I'm going to have to agree with BJ. Some drafts just suck and if an Iguodala type guy is the best that's available then I just have to live with it.


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## Laker Freak (Jul 1, 2003)

If your #1 pick isn't making All NBA 2nd Team or higher consistently, I'd consider him a disappointment.


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## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

Laker Freak said:


> If your #1 pick isn't making All NBA 2nd Team or higher consistently, I'd consider him a disappointment.


So the majority of #1 picks are busts then?


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Laker Freak said:


> If your #1 pick isn't making All NBA 2nd Team or higher consistently, I'd consider him a disappointment.


Unless of course no one else in that draft class is making All-NBA teams, either. Sometimes you just get the first pick in the wrong year. It happens.


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## kbdullah (Jul 8, 2010)

If I get the #1 pick in the draft, I expect a player in the same tier as the best player in the draft.


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## LeGoat06 (Jun 24, 2013)

In this years draft I expect at least 10 guys to be Iguodala quality


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

kbdullah said:


> If I get the #1 pick in the draft, I expect a player in the same tier as the best player in the draft.


That's a good way of putting it. If I draft Kenyon Martin first overall and the best players in that draft are Mike Miller and Michael Redd, at least they're all in the same tier.


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

If I draft Greg Oden and the next guy turns out to be Durant, then I'm pissed. For the most part there isn't going to be a Durant there to draft.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

I want him to be an All-NBA player or else I'd be disappointed. Even if it's just a down year I'd still judge him against historic #1s.


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## kbdullah (Jul 8, 2010)

RollWithEm said:


> That's a good way of putting it. If I draft Kenyon Martin first overall and the best players in that draft are Mike Miller and Michael Redd, at least they're all in the same tier.


What I had in mind was some of the historic classes, you might not get the best player, but if you get something close enough you're satisfied. Olajuwon before Jordan, for example.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

There have been 28 first overall picks made since the lottery began:


```
Year  #1 Overall  Best Player  Same Tier?
1985   Ewing       K Malone       Yes
1986   Daugherty   Rodman         Yes
1987   D Rob       D Rob          Yes
1988   Manning     Richmond       No
1989   P Ellison   T Hardaway     No
1990   D Coleman   Payton         No
1991   L Johnson   Mutombo       Almost
1992   Shaq        Shaq           Yes
1993   Webber      Webber         Yes
1994   Glenn Rob   J Kidd         No
1995   Joe Smith   Garnett        No
1996   Iverson     Kobe          Almost
1997   Duncan      Duncan         Yes
1998   Olowokandi  Nowitzki       No
1999   E Brand     Ginobili       Yes
2000   K Martin    M Miller       Yes
2001   Kwame       Pau Gasol      No
2002   Yao Ming    Yao Ming       Yes
2003   Lebron      Lebron         Yes
2004   D Howard    D Howard       Yes
2005   Bogut       C Paul         No
2006   Bargnani    Rondo          No
2007   G Oden      Durant         No
2008   D Rose      D Rose         Yes
2009   Blake       Harden         Yes
2010   J Wall      P George       Yes
2011   Kyrie       Kyrie          Yes
2012   Unibrow     Lillard      Probably
```
Regardless of who you think the best player was in each draft year, the tiers should be correct. By my count, the team picking first drafted a player who at least was in the same conversation for the tier of the best player from that draft class 18 out of 28 times. That's about a 64% "success" rate. That's not as high as I thought it would be.


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## Laker Freak (Jul 1, 2003)

R-Star said:


> So the majority of #1 picks are busts then?


No. From 1990-2010 the only ones I'd consider busts are Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, Olowokandi, Oden and Bargnani.

I'd consider Bogut, Big Dog and Martin to be disappointments, however, Martin gets a pass since he was the best player in his draft and was a key player on a title contender.


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## scdn (Mar 31, 2011)

Laker Freak said:


> No. From 1990-2010 the only ones I'd consider busts are Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, Olowokandi, Oden and Bargnani.
> 
> I'd consider Bogut, Big Dog and Martin to be disappointments, however, Martin gets a pass since he was the best player in his draft and was a key player on a title contender.


Well, I'd consider Bargnani on a similar tier as LMA and Rudy Gay. Brandon Roy pre-injuries was on a higher tier, but was not for very long. I guess Rondo is on a higher tier.


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

scdn said:


> Well, I'd consider Bargnani on a similar tier as LMA and Rudy Gay. Brandon Roy pre-injuries was on a higher tier, but was not for very long. I guess Rondo is on a higher tier.



LMA was an All Star, Rudy Gay was borderline...there is ablsolutely zero chance of Bargs making an All Star team. I don't think there has been any point in which the Raptors could have used Bargs to get either player.


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## AllRim (Jun 19, 2012)

ChrisWoj said:


> If you have pick #1 and you come away with a player that amounts to Andre Iguodala for you - is that a win?
> 
> 
> Just curious. A lot of people seem to expect a superstar every single year, and anything short of it is a disappointment. AI has been just below superstar status, he'd need a legendary supporting cast to be the top billing star on a championship team. He's just not going to be "the man" on a championship team.
> ...


As a Raptors fan I would be the happiest man alive we didn't draft another euro


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## King Sancho Fantastic (Jul 19, 2005)

if theyre not the best player in the draft or on the same level then theyre a bust.


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## FortyDaysThree (Oct 16, 2013)

I think in any case Andre Iguodala would be considered a bust if he was a #1 pick.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

FortyDaysThree said:


> I think in any case Andre Iguodala would be considered a bust if he was a #1 pick.


I just can't condemn teams for getting the #1 pick in a shitty draft.


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## FortyDaysThree (Oct 16, 2013)

E.H. Munro said:


> I just can't condemn teams for getting the #1 pick in a shitty draft.


There is always someone better than Iggy in every draft.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

No there isn't.


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## Najee (Apr 5, 2007)

ChrisWoj said:


> If you have pick #1 and you come away with a player that amounts to Andre Iguodala for you - is that a win?
> 
> 
> Just curious. A lot of people seem to expect a superstar every single year, and anything short of it is a disappointment. AI has been just below superstar status, he'd need a legendary supporting cast to be the top billing star on a championship team. He's just not going to be "the man" on a championship team.
> ...


First, Andre Igoudala was never a borderline superstar -- he's an overvalued complementary player whose skills are best utilized as a third or fourth option on a playoff team.

Second, it depends on your expectations and use of Igoudala. If he goes to a ready-built team (like he was with Denver and and will be with Golden State) and he is placed in the role of a fourth option to a sixth man, then he is a good fit. If your team is in the position like Igoudala was in Philadelphia where the 76ers expect him to be the linchpin of a rebuilding team, then your team is misusing him/has unreasonable expectations/has not built a team around him.


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## kansasalumn (Jun 9, 2002)

I think Manning was a good #1 pick for the Clipps. Helped the team to make the playoffs for a couple seasons, and was the 6th man of the year a few times, made the all star games a few times. He would have been so much better if he did not had 3 ACL surgey's, and plaed for 10 seasons on bad knees is good to me


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