# Lotto Watch 2014



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

So, with 16 games left in the regular season, the C's are sitting in a 3-way tie with Utah and the Lakers for the 4th-worst record in the league. They certainly won't "catch" Philly or Milwaukee, and Orlando has a tough enough schedule that it's hard to see them making up the 3.5 game gap they have on the Boston/Utah/LA group despite having some talented young guys that could sneak up on a team. Sacramento's also in the mix, only a half-game back from the tie for fourth, but they're probably the most talented team in the picture. The good news? Boston's schedule the rest of the way is mostly made up of playoff squads, although they also have two games left against Philly that I don't think they could manage to lose if they try.


----------



## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Not a bad position to be in. I think any pick in the top 7 is rock solid this year. If they can manage to move Rondo for a nice package of players and end up with Exum, that's a huge coup for the franchise.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

RollWithEm said:


> Not a bad position to be in. I think any pick in the top 7 is rock solid this year. If they can manage to move Rondo for a nice package of players and end up with Exum, that's a huge coup for the franchise.


I'd be okay with just about anyone in the top seven. Obviously picking higher is always better, so it isn't like I don't care where they wind up in that seven, but even anyone out of that Randle/Smart/Gordon group that's considered about a half-tier below the other guys has the potential to be really, really good. However, it gets really dicey if you're at the tail end of that group because you run the risk of someone leap-frogging you on lotto night and bumping you to eighth or lower, and there's also the possibility of some of these guys going back to school for another year. I really don't want to finish any lower than fifth to ensure Boston doesn't miss out on one of the top-tier guys.


----------



## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Bogg said:


> I'd be okay with just about anyone in the top seven. Obviously picking higher is always better, so it isn't like I don't care where they wind up in that seven, but even anyone out of that Randle/Smart/Gordon group that's considered about a half-tier below the other guys has the potential to be really, really good. However, it gets really dicey if you're at the tail end of that group because you run the risk of someone leap-frogging you on lotto night and bumping you to eighth or lower, and there's also the possibility of some of these guys going back to school for another year. I really don't want to finish any lower than fifth to ensure Boston doesn't miss out on one of the top-tier guys.


That's all spot on. Can't risk falling out of the big 7. That's when you start taking fliers on guys like Tyler Ennis or Rodney Hood. That would be like taking a flier on an Anthony Bennett or a Dion Waiters in past drafts. In other words, don't be Cleveland!


----------



## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

RollWithEm said:


> Not a bad position to be in. I think any pick in the top 7 is rock solid this year. If they can manage to move Rondo for a nice package of players and end up with Exum, that's a huge coup for the franchise.


I'd bet a large sum of money that Exum winds up with the Lakers, even if it requires some Kobe for Vlade esq tampering.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

R-Star said:


> I'd bet a large sum of money that Exum winds up with the Lakers, even if it requires some Kobe for Vlade esq tampering.


Then allow me to pray the Lakers are drafting #1 because I have Exum in my 1A group and that means that one of the big three slips. Though my dream scenario is that Boston ends up with #1 and the Sixers get iced out, and that they get desperate enough to swap their two picks for Boston's two.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

E.H. Munro said:


> Then allow me to pray the Lakers are drafting #1 because I have Exum in my 1A group and that means that one of the big three slips. Though my dream scenario is that Boston ends up with #1 and the Sixers get iced out, and that they get desperate enough to swap their two picks for Boston's two.


In a worst-case scenario where Boston winds up frozen out of the top group of players and starts looking at the Rodney Hoods and Noah Vonlehs, would you entertain trading down with Chicago for their pick and Charlotte's? I think I might.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Depends on whether or not they can get Willie Cauley-Stein with one of the picks. He's near the top of my second tier of guys. He isn't a short term prospect, but he has DPoY type potential in the long term.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

E.H. Munro said:


> Depends on whether or not they can get Willie Cauley-Stein with one of the picks. He's near the top of my second tier of guys. He isn't a short term prospect, but he has DPoY type potential in the long term.


I wouldn't mind Cauley-Stein, given the type of rim protection Boston's going to be getting from Bass/Olynyk/Sullinger next year.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Sacramento won in overtime last night. Gives the C's a cushion of 2 wins against them. Now if only the Jazz and Lakers could do their part and pull some upsets tonight, we'd be in business.


----------



## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

*What?*



Bogg said:


> Sacramento won in overtime last night. Gives the C's a cushion of 2 wins against them. Now if only the Jazz and Lakers could do their part and pull some upsets tonight, we'd be in business.


The Wizards were up 6 with like 90 seconds to go. I went to bed. Damn it. How could they have blown that game?

*EDIT*: It appears Rudy Gay hit two big shots at the end. One to keep them in it and then another one to send it into overtime. Say what you want about the teams he plays on being worse with him, but the guy hits clutch shots.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Bogg said:


> I wouldn't mind Cauley-Stein, given the type of rim protection Boston's going to be getting from Bass/Olynyk/Sullinger next year.


I mean, on that squad his offensive game is massively underdeveloped. But big men that can defend the perimeter, defend the post, provide stellar help defense, and handle switches on the pick & roll are a real rarity in the NBA.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

E.H. Munro said:


> I mean, on that squad his offensive game is massively underdeveloped. But big men that can defend the perimeter, defend the post, provide stellar help defense, and handle switches on the pick & roll are a real rarity in the NBA.


Yea, I mean, I can see the Tyson Chandler comparisons, and if he becomes the guy that Chandler was in Dallas and the first year or two in New York that's a hugely valuable player. Big defensive center projects are iffy propositions (see Fab Melo), but once the top group of players are all off the board I wouldn't lose my mind if that's where Boston went with one of their picks. Sullinger certainly isn't going to be providing any rim protection.


----------



## Rick2583 (Mar 17, 2014)

Bogg said:


> I wouldn't mind Cauley-Stein, given the type of rim protection Boston's going to be getting from Bass/Olynyk/Sullinger next year.


 Stein is not expected to go in the 1st round because most experts believe that out side of his shot blocking his game is basically weak. He's not a strong rebounder or any kind of a scorer. IMO he'd be another Perkins only with better hands but physically weaker.

Depending on what the Celtics are going to do with Rondo If players like Parker, Wiggins & McDermott are gone we may have to grab a PG like Marcus Smart or even the kid Christon from Xavier who's a better shooter then Smart. JMO.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Rick2583 said:


> Stein is not expected to go in the 1st round because most experts believe that out side of his shot blocking his game is basically weak. He's not a strong rebounder or any kind of a scorer. IMO he'd be another Perkins only with better hands but physically weaker.
> 
> Depending on what the Celtics are going to do with Rondo If players like Parker, Wiggins & McDermott are gone we may have to grab a PG like Marcus Smart or even the kid Christon from Xavier who's a better shooter then Smart. JMO.


I openly admit I'm not particularly good at projecting college players, aside from Uconn guys, because I barely watch college ball. From what I've seen from WCS I could see him becoming a very good defensive center, but like I said - I don't really know much. I'm far better with guys currently in the NBA.


----------



## Rick2583 (Mar 17, 2014)

Bogg said:


> I openly admit I'm not particularly good at projecting college players, aside from Uconn guys, because I barely watch college ball. From what I've seen from WCS I could see him becoming a very good defensive center, but like I said - I don't really know much. I'm far better with guys currently in the NBA.



Don't misunderstand me his defense is the strong point of his game & if he's still available in the 2nd round & we have a pick, I'd take him. Look, I think a lot depends on whats happening with Rondo. If his contract is extended & he's our PG for years to come than that changes things dramatically. Because we won't have to go after PGs like Smart or Christon & can consentrate instead on going big. I'd like that to be Embiid though his recent back woes do concern me. And if Parker is already gone by the time our pick comes around, which unless we're in the top 3 is a pretty safe bet.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Rick2583 said:


> Don't misunderstand me his defense is the strong point of his game & if he's still available in the 2nd round & we have a pick, I'd take him. Look, I think a lot depends on whats happening with Rondo. If his contract is extended & he's our PG for years to come than that changes things dramatically. Because we won't have to go after PGs like Smart or Christon & can consentrate instead on going big. I'd like that to be Embiid though his recent back woes do concern me. And if Parker is already gone by the time our pick comes around, which unless we're in the top 3 is a pretty safe bet.


There's zero chance Rondo signs an extension with Boston, simply because of the cap on how much his salary can be raised over next year's pay. Ainge has to either move him before next year's trade deadline or go into summer 2015 certain enough that Rondo will stick around to risk losing him for nothing.


----------



## Rick2583 (Mar 17, 2014)

Bogg said:


> There's zero chance Rondo signs an extension with Boston, simply because of the cap on how much his salary can be raised over next year's pay. Ainge has to either move him before next year's trade deadline or go into summer 2015 certain enough that Rondo will stick around to risk losing him for nothing.



If Ainge can pick up the pieces during the off season (draft etc) that would compliment the core of Rondo, Sully Green etc, than MAYBE Rondo would be willing to stay on. He's currently (I believe) at 12M, if he makes ridiculous demands of 16-18M then I'd show him the door.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Rick2583 said:


> Stein is not expected to go in the 1st round because most experts believe that out side of his shot blocking his game is basically weak. He's not a strong rebounder or any kind of a scorer. IMO he'd be another Perkins only with better hands but physically weaker.


Not only is he going to go in the first round, I'll be shocked if he slips out of the lottery. He's nothing like Perkins. Perkins could certainly defend the post, but he certainly couldn't switch on the pick & roll and was a liability when they were using him as the primary help defender to cover for Al Jefferson (in '07).


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Well, Boston just beat Miami again (Rondo really hates those guys - 9/15/10). C'mon Rondo, we need lotto balls.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Orlando and Utah are playing tonight, and you know what that means: _somebody has to win_!


----------



## Rick2583 (Mar 17, 2014)

The more I see of this kid Wiggins & the more I hear about him, I just can't see him still being predicted as the #1 over all pick. I don't even see him as a top 3. And a top 5 MAYBE. Right now I see Parker, Embriid, & Randle going before him. What do you guys think & who would you like to see us get?

Base your assumptions on whether we extend Rondo or we trade him.


----------



## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Rick2583 said:


> The more I see of this kid Wiggins & the more I hear about him, I just can't see him still being predicted as the #1 over all pick. I don't even see him as a top 3. And a top 5 MAYBE. Right now I see Parker, Embriid, & Randle going before him. What do you guys think & who would you like to see us get?
> 
> Base your assumptions on whether we extend Rondo or we trade him.


I think Wiggins is going first overall. It appears to be nearing in on a consensus. He's a relatively low risk prospect because even if his offense never fully develops, he will likely be a top 5 wing defender in the league for most of his career. If he truly flourishes offensively, he could be a top 5 overall wing in the league. High ceiling and relatively high floor usually makes for an easy choice.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Well, with eight games left Boston's looking like a lock for 26 wins. They have two left against Washington and one against Charlotte, both of whom are jockeying for position, so you can write those down to losses. I'm expecting Philly and Detroit to outright throw their games (the Pistons have already benched their starting lineup more or less to "test out the [strike]D-League signees[/strike] youngsters"). That leaves Atnalta and Cleveland. Fortunately both of them are better than Boston and the Celtics get those games on the road.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Rick2583 said:


> The more I see of this kid Wiggins & the more I hear about him, I just can't see him still being predicted as the #1 over all pick. I don't even see him as a top 3. And a top 5 MAYBE. Right now I see Parker, Embriid, & Randle going before him. What do you guys think & who would you like to see us get?
> 
> Base your assumptions on whether we extend Rondo or we trade him.


Well, Rondo won't sign an extension because he's looking for a bigger payday than he can get by extending his current deal, so he's a lock to hit free agency no matter where he is. I don't think Boston's going to know enough about Rondo's future (unless someone ponies up a ton on draft night) to base any draft selection off of it, so they're squarely in best player available mode. 

For what it's worth, Ainge is supposedly in love with Dante Exum and would take him if he's on the board regardless of where Boston's picking, if you believe such rumors. As it is though, all the guys you mentioned have question marks at least as big as the ones that Wiggins has. It's not clear that Parker's going to be able to defend either forward position at a high level in the NBA, Emiid has a bad back, and Randle has a relatively short wingspan/standing reach for a guy who isn't massively tall.


----------



## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Well, in a "Shots fired!" moment in *Tank Battle!: 2014* the Sixers just laid a smackdown on the Celtics. Boston tightens its grip on #4.


----------



## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

E.H. Munro said:


> Well, in a "Shots fired!" moment in *Tank Battle!: 2014* the Sixers just laid a smackdown on the Celtics. Boston tightens its grip on #4.


And Utah gets a win over New Orleans. Sole possession of fourth!


----------

