# Durant will be declaring.



## rkipp (Feb 6, 2007)

> -According to multiple sources, both from the NBA and close to the player himself, Kevin Durant will be announcing in a press conference mid next week that he will be putting his name in the draft.


http://draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=1985


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

Hate to say "I told you so," but...


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

I told you so.


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## BlakeJesus (Feb 1, 2006)

Good for him, he'll be a great player.


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## BostonBasketball (Jan 10, 2005)

:jawdrop: 

Shocking...


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## Causeway (May 18, 2005)

Shocking and amazing predictions!!! Genius even! No one else in the country was talking all year about one of the 2 top prospects in NCAA hoops entering the NBA draft! I am speechless.


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

Causeway said:


> Shocking and amazing predictions!!! Genius even! No one else in the country was talking all year about one of the 2 top prospects in NCAA hoops entering the NBA draft! I am speechless.



hahahahahaha...i was thinking the same thing but didnt want to be the one to bring it up...you "i told you so" guys really went out on a limb for this prediction...


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## Pimped Out (May 4, 2005)

<font>LIES!!!!!!!!!</font>


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

#1AntoineWalkerFan said:


> hahahahahaha...i was thinking the same thing but didnt want to be the one to bring it up...you "i told you so" guys really went out on a limb for this prediction...


There was never any reason to doubt "this prediction."


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

lets not make draftexpress.com our basketball bible...i wont believe a thing til it actually happens


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

#1AntoineWalkerFan said:


> hahahahahaha...i was thinking the same thing but didnt want to be the one to bring it up...you "i told you so" guys really went out on a limb for this prediction...


Considering the number of people that told us that Durant would be returning to school because he "liked college life"? I'd think you guys would have a little more humility.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

> hahahahahaha...i was thinking the same thing but didnt want to be the one to bring it up...you "i told you so" guys really went out on a limb for this prediction...p


You're joking, right? 

This coming from the same guys who thought there were any chance he'd stay in school.


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

hahaha...there was a chance...a much greater one than anyone expressed...he even said himself he might stay in college...just because he declares doesnt mean there was no chance that he coulda stayed...im not tryin to be an *** but im just saying if he does come out its not that big of a surprise and its not "i told you so" material...its like picking pierce over scabs in a one on one and when pierce wins you say i told you so...


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

In that scenario, you would be the one saying that there is a chance that Scalabrine might win. No one would have said "I told you so" if you did not say Durant may not declare.


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## Causeway (May 18, 2005)

There was a chance he'd stay in school. How big of a chance? We'll never know. But looking for props because Durant did what most people thought he was going to do? props - you predicted what 99% of the country predicted.


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## aquaitious (Jun 11, 2002)

Causeway said:


> There was a chance he'd stay in school. How big of a chance? We'll never know. But looking for props because Durant did what most people thought he was going to do? props - you predicted what 99% of the country predicted.



You're saying there 1% who predicted he wouldn't declare? I could have sworn on last count #1AWF was the only person in the world. 

Back to the topic.

Durant's coming out? Well color me surprised.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

Uhh, not looking for props. Where'd you conjure that silly notion from?

It's simple, really, see if you can follow.

- You said Durant might say in school.

- I said there's no way that's happening.

Therefore, I told you that there's no way Durant would stay in school. I was right.

Stop being so defensive. It's not a big deal.


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

lol...ur right...and anyway if he does come out i wouldnt be mad...of course i want him and oden to come out because theres more of a chance of us getting a great player...that is if ainge doesnt trade our pick for slava medvedenko, which i wouldnt put past him


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## Causeway (May 18, 2005)

Try and follow:

Just because Durant has said he is going to the NBA, does not mean he was not considering staying in school. No one said he WOULD, for sure, no question, stay in school. Only that there was a chance. This does not make you right.


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

if i can give an example of what causeway is saying...keeping with the lottery theme...if you put 10 balls in a bag, 9 green and one white...and someone "there is no chance you pick the white one"...and i pick a green one...that doesnt mean whoever said i had "no chance" was right...actually i had an 10% chance, so he was wrong, but it just didnt happen

regardless it doesnt matter...again i hope he does come out and hes wearing green sometime soon


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## Causeway (May 18, 2005)

Exactly. 

And I'd also be thrilled to see Durant in Celtic Green.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

> Just because Durant has said he is going to the NBA, does not mean he was not considering staying in school. No one said he WOULD, for sure, no question, stay in school. Only that there was a chance. This does not make you right.


See, I understand what you're saying. The fact remains that I was correct when I said it was a sure thing that he'd be coming out for the draft, which isn't anything to brag about, because most people would have agreed. 

It's just funny that people who said that he either might or was likely staying in school are the only ones who seem to be chirping about how easy it was to predict he'd be coming out. Go figure.


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## aquaitious (Jun 11, 2002)

#1AntoineWalkerFan said:


> if i can give an example of what causeway is saying...keeping with the lottery theme...if you put 10 balls in a bag, 9 green and one white...and someone "there is no chance you pick the white one"...and i pick a green one...that doesnt mean whoever said i had "no chance" was right...actually i had an 10% chance, so he was wrong, but it just didnt happen
> 
> regardless it doesnt matter...again i hope he does come out and hes wearing green sometime soon



You can apply that theory to everything in life.


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## Causeway (May 18, 2005)

P-Dub34 said:


> See, I understand what you're saying. The fact remains that I was correct when I said it was a sure thing that he'd be coming out for the draft, which isn't anything to brag about, because most people would have agreed.
> 
> It's just funny that people who said that he either might or was likely staying in school are the only ones who seem to be chirping about how easy it was to predict he'd be coming out. Go figure.


It was not a sure thing. That's the point. Was it very very very likely, and therfore not really sticking your neck out too far, to "predict" he'd come out? Yes. Odds clearly favored he'd come out. But not as you said a sure thing. Well, really we'll never know.


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## Pimped Out (May 4, 2005)

aquaitious said:


> You can apply that theory to everything in life.


well obviously you can say with certainty that you arent going to wake up tomorrow and be able to run faster than a speeding bullet. but its stupid to ever claim with 100% certainty you know what someone is thinking, especially when it is someone you have never met. no one in this thread knows exactly what his decision making process was. declaring absolute truth for something like this is wrong.

but hey, if someone gets a false sense of superiority by believing they know exactly what kevin durant will do before he does it then maybe we should jet let them keep it


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Pimped Out said:


> well obviously you can say with certainty that you arent going to wake up tomorrow and be able to run faster than a speeding bullet. but its stupid to ever claim with 100% certainty you know what someone is thinking, especially when it is someone you have never met. no one in this thread knows exactly what his decision making process was. declaring absolute truth for something like this is wrong.
> 
> but hey, if someone gets a false sense of superiority by believing they know exactly what kevin durant will do before he does it then maybe we should jet let them keep it


Were you another of the people that lectured BBF on how Durant would be returning to school? Premier wasn't even bragging, and our two resident experts got up in high dudgeon. It's pretty silly. If you read the initial whinge you see the poster is asserting his superiority on the grounds that he was one of the 1% that was wrong. Truly hilarious.


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## Causeway (May 18, 2005)

What's silly is thinking you are _right_ because Durant is declaring, and others are wrong. The people who said there was _a chance_ Durant might stay in school are wrong? Please tell me how you know there was no chance. You hang with Durant? Talk about truly hilarious.


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## Pimped Out (May 4, 2005)

ehmunro said:


> Were you another of the people that lectured BBF on how Durant would be returning to school? Premier wasn't even bragging, and our two resident experts got up in high dudgeon. It's pretty silly. If you read the initial whinge you see the poster is asserting his superiority on the grounds that he was one of the 1% that was wrong. Truly hilarious.


i always figured durant was going to declare. i joked about the fact that i didnt want him to, but thats different. thats not my issue here. i was arguing with p-dub because i believe its impossible say with 100% certainty what a player is going to do and pretending like you can at all is just wrong. you dont count your chickens before they hatch and after they hatch you dont claim you knew which ones were going to hatch all along. you could have guessed right and one of them may have been more likely to hatch, but you never had any way of really knowing.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Pimped Out said:


> i always figured durant was going to declare. i joked about the fact that i didnt want him to, but thats different. thats not my issue here. i was arguing with p-dub because i believe its impossible say with 100% certainty what a player is going to do and pretending like you can at all is just wrong. you dont count your chickens before they hatch and after they hatch you dont claim you knew which ones were going to hatch all along. you could have guessed right and one of them may have been more likely to hatch, but you never had any way of really knowing.


That wasn't his point. Two of the posters here gave us harangues about Durant returning to school over the winter, and they weren't polite about it, either. When Durant took the money and ran (and really, who can blame him?) they began ridiculing Premier for being right. P-Dub was just pointing out the crisp reek of hypocrisy.


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

noone ridiculed prem for being right...congrats on being right...i was responding to the "i told you so"'s...i found them as putting down me and cause and anyone else who said he might go back to school and i didnt appreciate it...maybe i should go back to every post i ever made where i predicted something that ended up being right and bump them with i told you so's...if ur right great no need to rub it in with ha ha i told you so's


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## Pimped Out (May 4, 2005)

ehmunro said:


> That wasn't his point. Two of the posters here gave us harangues about Durant returning to school over the winter, and they weren't polite about it, either. When Durant took the money and ran (and really, who can blame him?) they began ridiculing Premier for being right. P-Dub was just pointing out the crisp reek of hypocrisy.


im not aware of anyones post history. i was just going by what ive seen in this thread.

the funny thing is, its still just a rumor.


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## Causeway (May 18, 2005)

It was in fact not a sure thing:



> According to the sources I've spoken with, Durant actually wanted to return to Texas, mostly because of lifestyle and maturity issues. But once it became clear that Nike was going to offer him upward of $20 million in endorsements to go along with that guaranteed NBA contract, the pros of going pro outweighed the merits of returning to school.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Pimped Out said:


> im not aware of anyones post history. i was just going by what ive seen in this thread.
> 
> the funny thing is, its still just a rumor.


Given that Durant is looking at a low eight figures sneaker deal, the rumour's probably true. And this was what was pointed out ages ago in the debate, that Durant was giving up a huge amount of money to return to school for a year. And once the money was laid out, most people agreed that it was highly unlikely that Durant would forgo the money. There were a couple of holdouts, who insisted elsewise. But at the end of the day it appears that the money won out. Thank christ in Heaven for common sense.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

> Updated: April 10, 2007, 4:06 PM ET
> *Durant leaving Texas for NBA*
> 
> AUSTIN, Texas -- Texas freshman Kevin Durant will enter the 2007 NBA draft and is pursuing hiring an agent, Texas announced on Tuesday afternoon.
> ...


 http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/news/story?id=2831655


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

What kind of impact do people see him having in the NBA?

Is he a Carmelo-type player or is he below that?


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

They're different sorts of players. If Durant landed in the right spot, his impact could be greater than 'Melo's. If he lands on a team determined to convert him into a 4, it will probably be less for a few years. He's got a great shooting game and a pretty good driving one, so as a 3 he's going to be a holy terror.


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## Saint Baller (May 3, 2006)

I watched Durant all year, I'm a huge 'horns fan and he will be a beast in this league.

He's alot like T-Mac and Dirk combined, with a bit of KG in him. None the less he's a solid player and I believe will have a better NBA career than Oden.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

ehmunro said:


> They're different sorts of players. If Durant landed in the right spot, his impact could be greater than 'Melo's. If he lands on a team determined to convert him into a 4, it will probably be less for a few years. He's got a great shooting game and a pretty good driving one, so as a 3 he's going to be a holy terror.


Michael Beasley is more like Carmelo [with a less refined mid-range game, a better perimeter shot, and better handles].


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Premier said:


> Michael Beasley is more like Carmelo [with a less refined mid-range game, a better perimeter shot, and better handles].


You know, I hadn't thought of it before, but that's a great comp for Beasly. He does have a little 'Melo in him.


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## Attila (Jul 23, 2003)

So what do the Celts do if they manage to land Durant? We already have Pierce at the 3. Durant appears to be too thin to play the 4 not that mention that Big Al seems to be doing a good job at that position. Do we trade him for a veteran? 

If we did trade him, we'd have to get a lot of value in return. (Perhaps we could get KG out of it?) And no,Paul Gasol wouldn't cut it.


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## BostonBasketball (Jan 10, 2005)

If the Celtics end up with Durant they will have to seriously consider trading Pierce. They can't justify tanking the season so badly just to trade their prospect they coveted (unless it delivers KG). If you do decide to trade Pierce you have to get a veteran PG in return and try to get a sevicable defensive center/PF. Of course this is all moot if they get Oden or the 3rd pick.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

BostonBasketball said:


> If the Celtics end up with Durant they will have to seriously consider trading Pierce. They can't justify tanking the season so badly just to trade their prospect they coveted (unless it delivers KG). If you do decide to trade Pierce you have to get a veteran PG in return and try to get a sevicable defensive center/PF. Of course this is all moot if they get Oden or the 3rd pick.


Why trade Pierce? So that the immobile Wally Szczerbiak can take over at the 2 and declare himself the team leader? Is this part of some grand conspiracy to land a top 5 pick in 2008?


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## cgcatsfan (Jun 10, 2005)

We'd be crazy to trade Durant. 
I like Big Al, but trading Pierce? Nope. 
There's got to be a way to make it work, other than only having one excellent player. I know we've gotten used to it, but c'mon. 
Durant's game will translate well and he can make an immediate impact.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

Purely hypothetical: If the Celtics manage to get the number one selection and draft Oden, perhaps Ainge can sucker Billy Knight into a Josh Smith - Al Jefferson swap to make up for passing Smith in the '04 draft. Smith has the body and athleticism to play as a perimeter power forward.


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## mrsister (Sep 9, 2002)

Can't Pierce be a shooting guard? Vince Carter plays that position with Jefferson at small forward. Pierce played shooting guard during the Walker years with Eric Williams at small forward. It would limit playing time for Green, Allen, Ray, and West, but I have a feeling one or more of those guys will be traded anyway.


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## DaBosox (Apr 10, 2007)

mrsister said:


> Can't Pierce be a shooting guard? Vince Carter plays that position with Jefferson at small forward. Pierce played shooting guard during the Walker years with Eric Williams at small forward. It would limit playing time for Green, Allen, Ray, and West, but I have a feeling one or more of those guys will be traded anyway.


Absolutely. I think the 2 is Pierce's natural spot, but since we've hit the iceberg in the middle of the season we've enjoyed the Rondo/West/Telfair rotation at both the point and shooting guards.

I've always liked the idea of having a large 3. I'm pretty sure a team of Rondo/Pierce/Durant/Jefferson/player not named Scalabrine from 1-5 would be a joy offensively.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

Pierce is too slow to play shooting guard now. He's better suited at small forward since he rebounds so well, but he can play shooting guard if necessary. Playing with Wally, Pierce is forced to start at shooting guard. If the Celtics draft Durant, though, he'll move to shooting guard, though. We don't need Wally starting.


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## mrsister (Sep 9, 2002)

Pierce now is too slow, but I think Pierce at 100 percent (or close to it) isn't too slow. His conditioning is poor from all the injuries, but if he stays relatively injury free, he can still be effective. But of course, the Celtics will have to work on their help defense anyway for those times that Pierce does get beat. On offense, I think Pierce can still get by people simply because he always keeps them guessing.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Premier said:


> Purely hypothetical: If the Celtics manage to get the number one selection and draft Oden, perhaps Ainge can sucker Billy Knight into a Josh Smith - Al Jefferson swap to make up for passing Smith in the '04 draft. Smith has the body and athleticism to play as a perimeter power forward.


I like that trade. I wonder if we could get Billy to kick in Indiana's first? He's desperate for a post scorer, and with Oden & Smith the Celtics would turn into one of the better defensive squads overnight.


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## DaBosox (Apr 10, 2007)

Would it be worth the wait to see what Tony Allen can bring after he gets his knee back together? Around December he was an absolute force, and if it wasn't for that injury he would have probably finished around 19/6/4 along with filthy, dirty, capital D Defense.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

DaBosox said:


> Would it be worth the wait to see what Tony Allen can bring after he gets his knee back together? Around December he was an absolute force, and if it wasn't for that injury he would have probably finished around 19/6/4 along with filthy, dirty, capital D Defense.


This is Tony's second major knee injury and third knee injury overall. He's turning into Brandon Roy, only without Roy's skills.


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## DaBosox (Apr 10, 2007)

ehmunro said:


> This is Tony's second major knee injury and third knee injury overall. He's turning into Brandon Roy, only without Roy's skills.


Aren't you glad you told me about this site? You must think my sole purpose for coming over was just to question ya.

Anyways, I'm of the opinion that Tony will come back to around 95% of his former self. He has a contract on the line now, so you can be sure he's busting ***. That does nothing for his tendency to blow out knees (thanks for the info on that), but we could probably get 60 games out of him before he attempts another brilliant after the whistle dunk.

My concern for dealing Jefferson when we have a 95% Tony Allen is that the drop from losing Jefferson might not be the gain we would receive from receiving Josh Smith. We do have depth at both swingmen spots, so that's something I figure into the trade.

I'm straying off topic again, but I think Durant would be a better 3 than 4. And it gives us 3 rebounders if we keep Perk and Jefferson on the floor. I feel like most power 4's in the league would snap him in half too.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

> perhaps Ainge can sucker Billy Knight into a Josh Smith - Al Jefferson swap to make up for passing Smith in the '04 draft.


You've got it backwards. BK would be the one sucking Ainge into that.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

Smith is a better player currently and will be a better player in the future. Jefferson may have more value to the Hawks, but Smith has more value to the Celtics if they draft Oden.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

Josh Smith is a tweener. Jefferson will be a 20/12 post scorer for a long time. I'm sipping the Kool-Aid a bit here, but Smith is not decisively a better player now and won't match Al's value in the future, either.


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

pdub is right...ive never been sold on smith...hes a good player...but Al has shown me alot this year...if we draft oden and need to get rid of jefferson it better be for someone better than josh smith


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

Smith, elventh months younger than Jefferson, is an above-average to good scorer [good to great penetration ability, world-class athleticism and finishing ability, good mid-range shot and post game, a below average to average outside shot that he has greatly improved in the last two seasons], a good to great rebounder, an average passer, a great to tremendous perimeter defender [good to great on-ball defense, tremendous help defense with the ability to disrupt passes due to his long arms, among the best blocking instincts in the league, and above-average to good defensive awareness]. His body allows him to play power forward in the same way that Charlie Villanueva plays power forward. As his jump shot improves, his scoring ability will make him a legitimate second option. In his peak seasons, I would expect 18-20 points per game, eight to ten rebounds per game, three to four assists per game, three blocks per game, decent efficiency for a perimeter player, and stellar defense. I'm pretty confident that he will attain those numbers and his game isn't that questionable. He is good.

Al's game, I think, is questionable. He is a great post scorer with nice touch within ten feet and a developing mid-range game, but I'm not sold on his rebounding ability. I think he tries to leap for rebounds when he is not athletic rather than using his weight to push aside smaller players. I think that his defense is still below average and the Celtics suffer when he has to cover a big man outside the low post because he is too slow to shut down penetration. I think he is still a poor passer, especially out of the double team. I think that his statistics this season are inflated without Pierce in the lineup for 25+ games.

Josh Smith, to me, is clearly the better player and the better prospect. Al's value is most likely the highest that it will ever be because I don't think he's even touching Zach Randolph of this season. He has a history of injury problems [see Randolph] and I think its dangerous to give him $65+ million dollars when he's had his best season in a contract year before his extension is eligible [see Randolph]. If Ainge can secure a draft pick from Atlanta, that's only more incentive to complete the deal.

By the way, I would definitely do this trade if the Celtics draft Oden, as we've talked about before, the Celtics need a good perimeter four to matchup with the Chris Bosh's of the league rather than another low post player that would clog the lane on offense [preventing Pierce's best attribute] and is too slow to guard the perimeter on defense. Smith fits well because he's a terror on defense and an Oden-Smith tandem is among the best defensive combinations in the league in three years. Remember, Oden would still guard the Elton Brand's of the league. A center doesn't have to guard the opposing team's center and Smith would be responsible for perimeter fours and the less talented big men, while Oden defends the post.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

Premier said:


> Josh Smith, to me, is clearly the better player and the better prospect. Al's value is most likely the highest that it will ever be because I don't think he's even touching Zach Randolph of this season. *He has a history of injury problems [see Randolph] and I think its dangerous to give him $65+ million dollars when he's had his best season in a contract year before his extension is eligible [see Randolph].* If Ainge can secure a draft pick from Atlanta, that's only more incentive to complete the deal.


This is the big question. He had motivational issues his first two years in the league, but suddenly, in his contract year, he discovers motivation and effort (players on rookie deals are eligible to sign an extension after their third season). If the Celtics extend him by 5/65 this offseason, how motivated will he be next year? And 5/65 isn't unrealistic when you consider that Dwight's extension is allegedly 5/87.5 and that Nene got 6/60 coming off major knee surgery. I don't think it's an imperative (trading Jefferson), but if the Celtics land Oden, Oden basically duplicates Jefferson on the floor, while being taller, longer, and quicker. His offensive game might not be as refined, but then his defensive game is light years more refined than Jefferson's. If Shawn Marion, who's smaller than Josh Smith, can function as a perimeter defending 4, then the nearly 6'9" Josh Smith should be able to do it as well.



Premier said:


> By the way, I would definitely do this trade if the Celtics draft Oden, as we've talked about before, the Celtics need a good perimeter four to matchup with the Chris Bosh's of the league rather than another low post player that would clog the lane on offense [preventing Pierce's best attribute] and is too slow to guard the perimeter on defense. Smith fits well because he's a terror on defense and an Oden-Smith tandem is among the best defensive combinations in the league in three years. Remember, Oden would still guard the Elton Brand's of the league. A center doesn't have to guard the opposing team's center and Smith would be responsible for perimeter fours and the less talented big men, while Oden defends the post.


I think people tend to think about the game in old fashioned terms, by which I mean they believe that "a point guard should run the offense," etc.. It's why I've started to refer to the spots on the floor by number rather than name. There's no particular reason that the offense should, necessarily, go through the 1. In fact, if you have someone like Kobe, LeBron, D-Wade, or Garnett the offense _shouldn't_ be running through the 1. If you have one of those guys on the floor, the 1 guard should be someone that can score and defend and carry the ball up the floor when needed. The same thing applies to the front court. NBA defenses are pretty complex these days, it's tough to survive, offensively, if you set up your 4 and 5 on the blocks. Defensively it's tough to function unless at least one of your big men can trap/fake trap the pick & roll, switch on the pick & roll, and effectively challenge the increasing number of quick, perimeter 4s in the NBA. Josh, I think, would be pretty good at most of the defensive chores, and with his quickness advantage (on even the quickest of 4s) is going to be a nightmare for PFs to guard.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

Prem, you're overrating Smith and I think you know it.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

I would say that I am biased since I like Smith's game so much, but I think I'm giving an accurate analysis of him. I really think he is a better player than Jefferson, though I would not say that he has more value.


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## aquaitious (Jun 11, 2002)

DaBosox said:


> Would it be worth the wait to see what Tony Allen can bring after he gets his knee back together? Around December he was an absolute force, and if it wasn't for that injury he would have probably finished around 19/6/4 along with filthy, dirty, capital D Defense.


Tony Allen is done.

Last time he blew out his knee, it took him a very long time to get back to his rookie year form. If it takes him just as long this time around, he'll be out of the league.

Also, I thought Danny didn't pick up Allen's option...

And now I'm off to read Prem's book a couple of posts up.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

Although overall a fairly good analysis, Prem, you embellished his strengths and minimized his faults.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

Care to explain? Don't take that negatively. I'm curious.

Critically looking at my post, you may say that I overrated his outside shot by calling it "below average to average that he has greatly improved in the last two seasons." I haven't checked the statistics, but his form looks much more fluid now than it did in his rookie season. Also, I did not mention his ball-handling ability which I think is slightly below average to slightly above average, but as a power forward, he will not be handling the ball from twenty-five feet out. The offense runs through Pierce. He's good off-the-ball, so he should be fine.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

I would be less than thrilled if Josh Smith was swapped for Al Jefferson. It wouldn't be terrible, but it wouldn't get me very excited either. I think both are pretty close.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

> Care to explain? Don't take that negatively. I'm curious.


No sweat.



> good to great penetration ability


Ehhh... he can get in the lane, but I don't think I'd call him a great penetrator. Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant - those are great penetrators.



> world-class athleticism and finishing ability


Yup.



> good mid-range shot and post game, a below average to average outside shot that he has greatly improved in the last two seasons


Granted, his jumper has improved, but he has a fascination with the three when he really can't shoot it at all. His midrange jumper isn't much better than average. His shot selection is extremely questionable.



> a good to great rebounder


Again, overrating him by calling him great. This is what I mean when I said your analysis wasn't sound, just embellishing some things. Smith will never be as good of a rebounder as Jefferson. Guys like Garnett/Marion/Howard are "great" rebounders. Josh Smith is solid.



> an average passer, a great to tremendous perimeter defender [good to great on-ball defense, tremendous help defense with the ability to disrupt passes due to his long arms, among the best blocking instincts in the league, and above-average to good defensive awareness].


He's a good defensively player, agreed, but he's not as if he's one of the tops in the league. Most of his blocks come on out-of-nowhere swats. He's a good defender, but not able to handle the premier fours in this league.

He's a very good basketball player. That said, I'd rather take my chances with a guy with 20/12 ability in the paint than a guy who will go out and jack up ten threes in one game. It's just my opinion, but I really think you're overrating Josh Smith here. It was a sound analysis, but I just believe you made a lot of his good aspects and not much (or just forgot/ignored) some of the negatives. That's all.


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## #1AntoineWalkerFan (Mar 10, 2005)

P-Dub34 said:


> That said, I'd rather take my chances with a guy with 20/12 ability in the paint than a guy who will go out and jack up ten threes in one game.




hmmm...a 6-9 guy who will jack up 10 threes per game...maybe im changing my mind...i think i would like a player like that :biggrin:


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

P-Dub, a few corrections..

8.6 rpg isn't good? I thought that was pretty good averages for a guy like Smith. Jefferson is averaging more at 10.9 rebounds per game, but I still think 8.6 for a small forward is "good".

And he is only averaging 2.1 three point attempts this year. So not exactly ten threes in one game.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

> 8.6 rpg isn't good? I thought that was pretty good averages for a guy like Smith. Jefferson is averaging more at 10.9 rebounds per game, but I still think 8.6 for a small forward is "good".


Well, this would be a good point had I said Josh Smith wasn't a good rebounder. Unfortunately for your argument, I didn't.



> And he is only averaging 2.1 three point attempts this year. So not exactly ten threes in one game.


Sorry, wrong again. On November 11th against Seattle, Smith indeed had ten 3PAs. 

This was only once instance, but luckily (or purposely? hmmm) I didn't say it was an average of his. He also shouldn't be shooting the three...really, at all...until he can hit it with any sort of consistency. His shot selection is also very questionable.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Premier called Smith a "good to great" rebounder and you called him "solid". I'm not sure whether or not it is worth arguing over which is which.. and that was just one game out of how many? I probably watch more Hawks games than anyone on this site and it's not like Smith is out there jacking up constant three's, which was the impression I got from reading your post. He rarely shoots from beyond the arc except on rare occasion (he has been averaging 1.8 three point attempts per game since December).


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

> Premier called Smith a "good to great" rebounder and you called him "solid". I'm not sure whether or not it is worth arguing over which is which..


I said he wasn't "great," and listed great guys as the traditional top rebounders in the A. He's clearly on a level below those guys. He's a good rebounder. No need to split hairs here.

I'm sorry you got the wrong impression regarding the shooting, but I was merely citing it as an example of how trigger happy he can be.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

Since when his nearly nine rebounds per game not "great" for a small forward? His rebound rate is not that high, but I think he can be a better rebounder than Al because unlike Al, he has the leaping ability to jump up and get rebounds.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

P-Dub34 said:


> Ehhh... he can get in the lane, but I don't think I'd call him a great penetrator. Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant - those are great penetrators.


"Great" to you apparently means among the best in the league. Smith can slash with ease. If he would improve his ballhandling, he could improve his scoring totals by simply beating his man off the dribble and finishing and/or drawing a foul.



> He's a good defensively player, agreed, but he's not as if he's one of the tops in the league. Most of his blocks come on out-of-nowhere swats. He's a good defender, but not able to handle the premier fours in this league.


His blocks are due to blocking instincts and good timing. LeBron is as athletic as they come, but he's not averaging three blocks a game. Smith uses his leaping ability, along with his timing, to block shots. It's not due to luck. He's done this for three seasons now. I agree that he cannot handle the premier power forwards in the league, but he won't have _if_ the Celtics draft Oden [which is why Josh Smith was brought up]. Oden would guard the opposing team's best big man unless that big man generally plays on the perimeter. Because of his lateral quickness, solid defensive awareness, and athleticism, Smith has been one of the league's top perimeter defenders the last two seasons. He will only get better.

I'm still not sold on Al. The timing of his improvement, the holes in his game, and his injury problems are reasons to be afraid.


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## P-Dub34 (May 19, 2005)

I'm not sold on Jefferson, either. But nor am I completely so on Smith that I'd trade Al for him.

And yes, to me, "great" at something means you are elite in the league.

9rpg as a SF? Wait, I thought you said you wanted him at the 4, where 9rpg is good but not great?

I would not trade Jefferson for Smith right now. That's all I'm saying.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

In Atlanta, he's a small forward. His rebounding will only improve as a power forward.


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