# We could miss the playoffs entirely



## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

Now that the Clippers will sign Baron Davis they should be in a better position than the Mavs. Let's take a look at the other teams who are better or arguably better than us:

Lakers: Not even debatable
Hornets: I think the playoffs were a good indicator
Spurs: Will still be there, it's an odd year
Rockets: If Yao is healthy, they have a chance to win 60 games
Jazz: Can't see them not around 55 wins again
Suns: Similar situation to us, new coach and a lot of the key players are in for a decline
Nuggets: Darkhorse, could be better, might not
Blazers: Talent is overwhelming, hard not to see them get 50 wins
Clippers: Most improved team in the offseason

So with Diop most likely being our big acquisition, the re-signings of Barea, Jones and George plus the addition of Green and the likely decline from most of our players it's absolutely possible that we could miss the playoffs. I think seven teams (Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Rockets, Jazz, Blazers, Clippers) are definitely better than us which leaves us fighting with Denver and Phoenix for the last spot. Obviously this is still a little premature as we are only at the beginning of the offseason, but you see the trend...


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## rocketeer (Oct 7, 2002)

the mavs(like pretty much every other team) should throw the mle at maggette.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

rocketeer said:


> the mavs(like pretty much every other team) should throw the mle at maggette.


We should, but most of the rumors have it that we are going to use our full MLE to bring back Diop :uhoh:


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## xray (Feb 21, 2005)

There's no doubt that the Mavs are on a downward slope, but it's interesting that the situation tests management's grit. In a case like the Knicks, you can say they failed; with Dallas and Phoenix, it will be interesting.


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## ray_allen_20 (Dec 26, 2007)

Don't forget about the warriors. Without B.Diddy they still have that crazy uptempo offense. Maybe replace B-diddy with a better shooter so that a few of the threes chucked up at the point guard position actually go in.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

Denver's done. I wouldn't be too concerned about them.

IMO this is the pecking order as things stand right now

Lakers
Rockets
Spurs
Jazz
Hornets
Blazers
Clippers
Suns/Mavs
Kings

no one else is even in the picture


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## LionOfJudah (May 27, 2003)

Jacoby_Ellsbury said:


> Denver's done. I wouldn't be too concerned about them.
> 
> IMO this is the pecking order as things stand right now
> 
> ...


Clippers aren't that improved yet. Baron and Brand both have to stay healthy which has been an issue in the past.

Kings? wtf? They are like 2 moves away from being completely in rebuilding mode.

I think we can still make the playoffs with our current roster but thats it. We'll be sent home early again with out any serious roster improvements or G. Green all of a sudden becomes an All-Star.


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## Dre (Jun 20, 2003)

The West is deep...who knows. I'm confident we can do it. Of those bottom 4 teams, we have two of the top 10 players, if that means anything.


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## Dissonance (Jul 21, 2004)

Dirk... and who Kidd? He's not in the top 10. Better argument for Nash and Amare. Not that, that whole argument means anything anyway. 


I think people need to stop thinking about how last yr was. It's a new season, not everything happens the way it did. I also don't expect it to be as crazy as it was. Also, New Orleans despite being good last yr could take a step back, especially if they plan to basically do nothing and not even try to get better. Houston, or Utah as well. Or someone nobody sees coming. People look at age and just automatically assume. But hey, I'd prefer everyone to sleep on the Suns.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

I'm not so sure about Nuggets, Blazers, and Clippers. I think you might be a little premature thinking they are going to be better than Phoenix or Dallas.


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## Dre (Jun 20, 2003)

I don't see how you could conclude any of those teams, save the Suns, could backslide *out* of the playoffs.

The Hornets won't be a number two seed again IMO, but they'll make the playoffs. The Spurs are too good to miss the playoffs. 

The Rockets, if they have Yao, will be fine. If Mac or Yao has a significant injury though, Houston's done. There's not gonna be another win streak.

We'd be competing in the bottom 3 with the Clippers, Blazers and Nuggets. 

And for argument's sake:

Amare
Nash
Melo
Iverson
Roy
Baron
Brand
Dirk
Kidd

Those are the 9 best players, in no order. Josh Howard might be number 10.


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## Dissonance (Jul 21, 2004)

Ah, oops. I read that top 10 part of it wrong.


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## t1no (Jul 10, 2005)

It's a possibility... but not going to happen.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

And since most of you agree, what's the point of making the playoffs with very little chance to win a round ? Let's not even talk about more than that. I think we have won enough first round series to not be satisfied with that, at least not with the current players. 

If we even have to shiver about making the playoffs there is something terribly wrong.


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## Dre (Jun 20, 2003)

That's absolutely true...but is it necessarily a statement about us? 

The Warriors had a good season and win total last year, but because of how deep the West was, they were a lottery team.


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## rocketeer (Oct 7, 2002)

croco said:


> And since most of you agree, what's the point of making the playoffs with very little chance to win a round ? Let's not even talk about more than that. I think we have won enough first round series to not be satisfied with that, at least not with the current players.
> 
> If we even have to shiver about making the playoffs there is something terribly wrong.


what's terribly wrong was trading harris, diop, and 2 1sts for kidd. that really was a mistake that dallas couldn't afford to make and it's hard to see them contending for a title again any time soon.

maybe they'll be able to turn kidd into a star when he's expiring. we'll see.


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## VeN (May 10, 2005)

honestly, i dont see us makin any more trades.. we are so f`ed this season.


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## t1no (Jul 10, 2005)

VeN said:


> honestly, i dont see us makin any more trades.. we are so f`ed this season.


In Rick Carlisle we trust.


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## VeN (May 10, 2005)

t1no said:


> In Rick Carlisle we trust.



lol new forum title!


"trust or bust!"


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## t1no (Jul 10, 2005)

:lol: this is sad, we sound so desperate.


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## VeN (May 10, 2005)

t1no said:


> :lol: this is sad, we sound so desperate.


we are...

they are trying to reacquire najera.. what does that tell you.. :wahmbulance:


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

OK. Blazer fan here, this is what i think.

I think that you guys will be better this season than last season. Add Diop back, and give Kidd more time to get used to the offense, and a better coach, i think ya'll will be ok. The only reason you guys were in trouble at all last year was because Dirk went down for a little bit. Diop will bea huge help to you guys, imo.

It looks like the Warriors are going to lose Davis and not get Arenas or Brand, so i think they will be down with the Kings as a "I suppose its possible but highly unlikely" team.

1. Lakers
2. Hornets
3. Spurs
4. Jazz
5. Rockets (health)
6. Suns 
7. Mavs
8. Clippers
9. Blazers
10. Nuggets

That is what i think the west will be like. Honestly, people have their expectations WAY too high for portland. They are sooo young and need time to gel and evaluate some things. They also have people they need to develop and McMillan needs to do some trial and error and get the right line-up and rotation. I'd say this is the last season the Blazers will get edged out in the playoffs, but its very possible they do miss it this year. They are the wild card though, because if they gel, and Oden is healthy and Rudy and Bayless play well and adjust quickly, they can be one of the top 5-6 in the west, imo. So we will see on that.

The Clippers and Rockets are all about staying healthy. If both teams are relatively healthy all year, i think they will both make the playoffs. The suns, if Nash gets injured, they are a lottery team. The suns are gettin' older with Nash and Shaq anyway, and they have a new coach, who isn't as good as Dallas's, imo. Might be a whole new play style, we will see how they develop.

And yea, i already listed the reasons i think the Mavs will be ok at the beginning of this post.


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## The Future7 (Feb 24, 2005)

MrJayremmie said:


> OK. Blazer fan here, this is what i think.
> 
> I think that you guys will be better this season than last season. Add Diop back, and give Kidd more time to get used to the offense, and a better coach, i think ya'll will be ok. The only reason you guys were in trouble at all last year was because Dirk went down for a little bit. Diop will bea huge help to you guys, imo.
> 
> ...


Agreed, expectations on the Blazers are too high. I hope everyone doesnt bash the Blazer if they dont win 45 games because they are still a very young team. 

The Clippers will not be better than the Mavs. They just wont.

I see the Mavs playing pretty well this season. My reason is because I expect the offense to have a lot of freedom. I feel that Dirk will be attemping more three pointers next season. He will be a beast offensively. Kidd will finally be able to run the way he wants to run. Dont be surprised to see the Mavs at the top of the West, I really think the coaching change was all we really needed because Avery was just a control freak. smh


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

The Future7 said:


> Agreed, expectations on the Blazers are too high. I hope everyone doesnt bash the Blazer if they dont win 45 games because they are still a very young team.
> 
> The Clippers will not be better than the Mavs. They just wont.
> 
> I see the Mavs playing pretty well this season. My reason is because I expect the offense to have a lot of freedom. I feel that Dirk will be attemping more three pointers next season. He will be a beast offensively. Kidd will finally be able to run the way he wants to run. Dont be surprised to see the Mavs at the top of the West, I really think the coaching change was all we really needed because Avery was just a control freak. smh


If we play Diop 20-25 minutes a night we are negating a good rate of what Dirk opens up on offense. And I'm not sure if the coaching change will really open up the offense because Carlisle has also been somewhat of a control freak in Detroit and Indiana. Maybe he has changed, but until I see it I won't believe it.


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## bootstrenf (May 24, 2006)

i think the clippers and blazers are getting a bit overrated....those two teams need to prove it on the court, before being ranked above the mavs....

you guys still have kidd/dirk/jho.....damn good trio....actually, i think they could be one of the best "big threes" in the league.....


the clippers have brand/davis.....

the blazers have roy/aldridge/oden......

kidd/dirk/jho still have the edge.....


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

I wish Kidd would be half as good as his reputation still is.


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## sasaint (Jun 28, 2005)

bootstrenf said:


> i think the clippers and blazers are getting a bit overrated....those two teams need to prove it on the court, before being ranked above the mavs....
> 
> you guys still have kidd/dirk/jho.....damn good trio....actually, i think they could be one of the best "big threes" in the league.....
> 
> ...


Before the season it's predicting, not overrating. I predict the Blazers will be good even though they haven't proved anything on the court. I also predict that Dallas will be much better than the doom-sayers. Avery is in a league by himself when it comes to control. Carlisle isn't even close. Kidd will be much better this year than last, and even though he isn't what he once was, he still has some gas in the tank. Howard will bounce back well. I like Jason Terry a ton. Stackhouse is Bruce Bowen's offensive counterpart - they both defy age. With Diop and Dampier splitting time again - and getting Bass more time at the 4/5 spot, Dallas will be good. Oh yeah, they still have a guy named Nowitzki, don't they?

As long as they have Cuban's deep pockets, the Mavs will never go through any bad slumps. Even if they did give up a lot for Kidd, free agency is the best way to build a team anymore.

I'm a Spurs fan. I don't like the Mavs at all, but I respect what they can do. They'll be tough, I guarantee.


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## VeN (May 10, 2005)

croco said:


> I wish Kidd would be half as good as his reputation still is.


zing!


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

sasaint said:


> Before the season it's predicting, not overrating. I predict the Blazers will be good even though they haven't proved anything on the court. I also predict that Dallas will be much better than the doom-sayers. Avery is in a league by himself when it comes to control. Carlisle isn't even close. Kidd will be much better this year than last, and even though he isn't what he once was, he still has some gas in the tank. Howard will bounce back well. I like Jason Terry a ton. Stackhouse is Bruce Bowen's offensive counterpart - they both defy age. With Diop and Dampier splitting time again - and getting Bass more time at the 4/5 spot, Dallas will be good. Oh yeah, they still have a guy named Nowitzki, don't they?
> 
> *As long as they have Cuban's deep pockets, the Mavs will never go through any bad slumps.* Even if they did give up a lot for Kidd, free agency is the best way to build a team anymore.
> 
> I'm a Spurs fan. I don't like the Mavs at all, but I respect what they can do. They'll be tough, I guarantee.


And that's the problem, mediocrity gets you nowhere in the NBA. We aren't contenders, but we aren't bad either and our payroll is still the highest. After using the MLE for Diop we are stuck with another albatross contract for five years.


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## xray (Feb 21, 2005)

croco said:


> After using the MLE for Diop we are stuck with another albatross contract for five years.


Good point. If nothing else, these long term deals practically prevent upgrades at those positions. If he's a stud, lock 'em up, right? 

But if he's not, don't. :nada:


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## sasaint (Jun 28, 2005)

croco said:


> And that's the problem, mediocrity gets you nowhere in the NBA. We aren't contenders, but we aren't bad either and our payroll is still the highest. After using the MLE for Diop we are stuck with another albatross contract for five years.


Just to clarify our discussion: Do you define mediocrity as "not winning a championship" or "not at least reaching the finals?" The thread is "We could miss the playoffs entirely." I was keeping that theme. I think the Mavs will make the playoffs easily, in contrast to some other prognosticators on this and other team boards. I also don't see them scraping into the playoffs as a 7- or 8-seed. Will they win a championship? Probably not. But with Cuban's deep pockets, the Mavs will never become like the Grizz. Are you arguing that it would be better to go through cycles in which the team hits rock bottom every once in awhile in order to benefit in the draft? Ask all the teams who had a better shot in the lottery than Chicago how that works! I think you are wrong. The best way for a team to build is through free-agency any more. Except for a handful of guys every year, the draft is largely irrelevant after 2-3 years. Most guys drafted are gone or relegated to the bench in that time. Starters and stars are few and far between in the draft. Most guys who get drafted don't become starters or stars, and those who do, do so more often after they have left their original team. Who drafted Brandon Bass?

Having said that, I think a full MLE was too high for Diop. Not using the FA system wisely is worse than not using the draft. Will having him back help? Yes. Is it costing too much to do that? Yes. Will the Mavs miss the playoffs? Absolutely not - not as long as Cuban is around. Will they eventually win a championship? Probably as long as Cuban is around, but maybe not with the current roster.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

sasaint said:


> Just to clarify our discussion: Do you define mediocrity as "not winning a championship" or "not at least reaching the finals?" The thread is "We could miss the playoffs entirely." I was keeping that theme. I think the Mavs will make the playoffs easily, in contrast to some other prognosticators on this and other team boards. I also don't see them scraping into the playoffs as a 7- or 8-seed. Will they win a championship? Probably not. But with Cuban's deep pockets, the Mavs will never become like the Grizz. Are you arguing that it would be better to go through cycles in which the team hits rock bottom every once in awhile in order to benefit in the draft? Ask all the teams who had a better shot in the lottery than Chicago how that works! I think you are wrong. The best way for a team to build is through free-agency any more. Except for a handful of guys every year, the draft is largely irrelevant after 2-3 years. Most guys drafted are gone or relegated to the bench in that time. Starters and stars are few and far between in the draft. Most guys who get drafted don't become starters or stars, and those who do, do so more often after they have left their original team. Who drafted Brandon Bass?
> 
> Having said that, I think a full MLE was too high for Diop. Not using the FA system wisely is worse than not using the draft. Will having him back help? Yes. Is it costing too much to do that? Yes. Will the Mavs miss the playoffs? Absolutely not - not as long as Cuban is around. Will they eventually win a championship? Probably as long as Cuban is around, but maybe not with the current roster.


Yes, anything but the championship has to be considered a failure at this point. We have been to the Finals in 2006, were on the verge of being up 3-0 and still lost. The following year this team won 67 games and lost in the first round ... same result this past season. I'm tired of seeing this group failing over and over again. We have won enough playoff series in recent years, there is no joy about that other than winning a title anymore. If this was a young and upcoming team I'd be thrilled with just getting to the playoffs and maybe winning a round, but this team is built to win right now, not in three years. It doesn't make sense to have another season around 50 wins if you have no shot at winning it all. To me it doesn't matter anymore if we win 18, 38, 58 or 78 games if we don't win in the playoffs.

You can't hang on to all the main pieces that got you to the Finals for forever, it never works that way in the NBA. Look at the Kings, they refused to rebuild after trading Webber and their team still isn't even good enough to make the playoffs after almost four years. We are headed the same way unless we can turn Kidd's expiring into an All-Star or even more. I'm not saying we should blow it up just to get a new start, but with that payroll, Dirk as our main guy with little support and basically everyone one year older I don't see us going anywhere.


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

The Mavericks are trying to turn the Diop signing into an S&T...I guess that'd be an expiring from some relic like eddie jones.If they did that they could be in position to get a little better,but unless they got Maggette it's hard to see them being really solid playoff team.Maggette seems to hold the key to who is a real contender in the West.Utah,Hornets and Spurs would all go to the front of the line if he signed there.


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## sasaint (Jun 28, 2005)

croco said:


> Yes, anything but the championship has to be considered a failure at this point. We have been to the Finals in 2006, were on the verge of being up 3-0 and still lost. The following year this team won 67 games and lost in the first round ... same result this past season. I'm tired of seeing this group failing over and over again. We have won enough playoff series in recent years, there is no joy about that other than winning a title anymore. If this was a young and upcoming team I'd be thrilled with just getting to the playoffs and maybe winning a round, but this team is built to win right now, not in three years. It doesn't make sense to have another season around 50 wins if you have no shot at winning it all. To me it doesn't matter anymore if we win 18, 38, 58 or 78 games if we don't win in the playoffs.
> 
> You can't hang on to all the main pieces that got you to the Finals for forever, it never works that way in the NBA. Look at the Kings, they refused to rebuild after trading Webber and their team still isn't even good enough to make the playoffs after almost four years. We are headed the same way unless we can turn Kidd's expiring into an All-Star or even more. I'm not saying we should blow it up just to get a new start, but with that payroll, Dirk as our main guy with little support and basically everyone one year older I don't see us going anywhere.


I share your aggressive approach to re-constructing a team. (I am a Spurs fan first, and I have posted on that forum a proposal to trade Ginobili for Tayshaun Prince rather than sign Maggette. You must give value to get value.) So, I pretty much agree with your assessment of the Mavs. I just wanted to clarify our discussion, because that's not really the thread. A lot of people think that the current roster might not even make the playoffs. I think they are very mistaken, but as for their chances in the playoffs, I agree with you. But I do think that Cuban has the pieces and the dough to make changes on the fly and not have to go through severe decline - changes that could bring a title to Dallas. I'm pretty sure that won't happen this year, though.


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## nets1fan102290 (Apr 16, 2007)

when jason kidd got traded to the mavs last year stupid Avery Johnson turned kidd into a *****, and not the same player that he was on the nets..i think this year will be different cuz carlisle is a good guy and lets his point guard run the team, adding diop helps a lot becuz damp sucks on defense and you actually have a backup center unlike last year i think bass backed up damp sometimes which was a bad move..josh howard is the wild card for this team...if he plays like an all star then the mavs will be in the playoffs no doubt....i dont think the clippers will be that good...baron isnt what you call a true game changer...he had success on golden state because nelson ran a different offense..i dont think dunleavy runs the same kind of offense..idk but heres my prediction

1.Lakers
2.Rockets
3.Jazz
4.Spurs
5.Suns
6.Mavs
7.Hornets
8.Clippers


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## bootstrenf (May 24, 2006)

nets1fan102290 said:


> when jason kidd got traded to the mavs last year stupid Avery Johnson turned kidd into a *****, and not the same player that he was on the nets..i think this year will be different cuz carlisle is a good guy and lets his point guard run the team, adding diop helps a lot becuz damp sucks on defense and you actually have a backup center unlike last year i think bass backed up damp sometimes which was a bad move..josh howard is the wild card for this team...if he plays like an all star then the mavs will be in the playoffs no doubt....i dont think the clippers will be that good...*baron isnt what you call a true game changer*...he had success on golden state because nelson ran a different offense..i dont think dunleavy runs the same kind of offense..idk but heres my prediction
> 
> 1.Lakers
> 2.Rockets
> ...


do you remember the playoff series between DAL and GS???


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## LionOfJudah (May 27, 2003)

bootstrenf said:


> do you remember the playoff series between DAL and GS???


He was awesome there but thats his only accomplishment in his NBA career at this point. He's a star no doubt by he's not a huge game changer as much as people would like to think he is. Thats if he's healthy.


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## nets1fan102290 (Apr 16, 2007)

bootstrenf said:


> do you remember the playoff series between DAL and GS???


i agree with stevemc what else has he done in his career? plus that series was a fluke and caught the mavs off guard and avery johnson didnt know how to counter them..baron doesn't make his teammates that much better so i cant see how they can even contend next year especially if magette is gone


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

I think you are severely underrating Davis. He isn't on a Paul/Williams level, but he is right there with anyone else in the tier below. He is what made the Warriors special and got them going and Monta Ellis is not a point guard who can fill in for him.


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## sasaint (Jun 28, 2005)

nets1fan102290 said:


> 1.Lakers
> 2.Rockets
> 3.Jazz
> 4.Spurs
> ...


The Hornets drop all the way to 7th? The Blazers don't make it? The Rockets over-rated AGAIN? I predict:

1.Lakers
2.Hornets
3.Jazz
4.Rockets
5.Mavs
6.Spurs
7.Blazers
8.Suns

If the Spurs acquire Maggette, they could move up. But they still have other holes. If Thomas doesn't return, they are desperate for some help at C/SF. Such as they were, Finley and Barry were important parts of the team. If they don't get Maggette, the top 3 are locks, and they will jockey with the rest until season's end for the last 5 spots.

The Blazers have the equivalent of 3 first round draft picks joining a very good young team that already has depth. With Oden, Fernandez and Bayless the Blazers easily could move up to #4 or #5.


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## nets1fan102290 (Apr 16, 2007)

sasaint said:


> The Hornets drop all the way to 7th? The Blazers don't make it? The Rockets over-rated AGAIN? I predict:
> 
> 1.Lakers
> 2.Hornets
> ...


i have the hornets at 7 because the west is tough and who knows maybe someone on the hornets gets injured like 2 seasons ago the team had a lot of injuries...why do you think the blazers will be that good..oden hasnt played a game in a long time your making it like hes going to overpower people. plus bayless is going to be a rookie thats not a good person to have leading your team into the playoffs. how are the rockets overrated they were a game behind the hornets last year for the second seed...


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## rtg (Aug 17, 2006)

Well it depends on who gets hurt from what teams. The west has about 10 teams that should be in the playoffs next year if healthy. Clearly some very good teams are going to miss the mark and be very unhappy after the season.


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## LionOfJudah (May 27, 2003)

croco said:


> I think you are severely underrating Davis. He isn't on a Paul/Williams level, but he is right there with anyone else in the tier below. He is what made the Warriors special and got them going and Monta Ellis is not a point guard who can fill in for him.


Davis falls into the category like Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis. Amazing Combo guard that never found the right niche IMO. Steve's legs gave out first and it's only time before the rest follow suit. All 3 are very talented but it's hard to build a team around more of a shoot 1st PG/ undersized ball dominating 2 guard. Personally, I think Davis is a haas and would like him on the Mavs but he is what he is, not a winner, often injured, and a tweener. As great as most people think he is he won't be a HOF'er unless he finally finds a way to win deep in the playoffs.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

He will never be HoFer, but you don't need more than one of those on the team to win a title.


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