# The More I Think About it...



## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

The more I think about it, the more I think Hedo Turkoglu should be our starting small forward this season regardless of the health of Grant Hill. Time and time again throughout his career, Turkoglu has shown that he is a much more effective player when he starts than when he comes off the bench. Hedo doesn't have the mental strength that Hill does, and he's easily affected when he's not in the starting lineup, and it shows in his play. He scores less, he shoots a worse percentage and his confidence isn't the same as when he starts. He's always played better when he starts, and his team has always played better when he starts.

Compound this with the other obvious factor in the equation, which is of course Grant Hill. Hill's been through a lot to try to get back at this point, and I'm sure he'd do anything Johnny Davis asks him to do this year, and he'll do it well with a smile on his face. By starting Hedo and having Hill coming off the bench, Hill will be able to conserve himself therefore lessening his chance of going down hurt once again, as well as having him fresh for the ends of the game. Another angle I hadn't really considered until recently was the benefit of having a guy with Hill's experience and skill playing with the second unit. What makes it make even more sense is that second unit will have a rookie point guard leading them. Having Hill's ballhandling and playmaking skills out there could really help us dominate the time when the starters are out of the game, considering we're a deep team already and our second unit is better than most. 

Really, I don't see any harm in starting Turkoglu and bringing Hill off the bench. Ultimately, I think it'll benefit the team more, regardless of who is the better player. The Spurs took off last season when they put Turkoglu in the starting lineup and brought Ginobili off the bench. Another plus of having Hill come off the bench is that if/when he goes down, we don't have to alter the starting lineup and mess with the chemistry there, we merely have to extend Hedo's minutes a little bit as well as guys like Bogans, Stevenson and Augmon(or Garrity) to fill in at the 3. What do you guys think-- ultimately, who should be our starting small forward opening day and for the rest of the season and possibly postseason?


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## JNice (Jul 13, 2002)

You could be right. Although if Hill is healthy I think it would be tough keeping him out of the starting lineup. But I do agree that having Hill on the court with Nelson could be good for him. If Hill is healthy and can play the mins, he should still be getting 30 mpg regardless of whether he starts or not.


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## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>JNice</b>!
> You could be right. Although if Hill is healthy I think it would be tough keeping him out of the starting lineup. But I do agree that having Hill on the court with Nelson could be good for him. If Hill is healthy and can play the mins, he should still be getting 30 mpg regardless of whether he starts or not.


Yep, I still think Hill should be out there on the court 30 minutes per game. My rationale for having Hill come off the bench is more to benefit Turkoglu and Nelson more than anything. Ultimately, I think it's best for our team.


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## JNice (Jul 13, 2002)

At this point, i'd be just plain happy to see Hill on the court whether he is starting, coming off the bench, or whatever.

But I think you are right .. I got the sense from Turkoglu that he is one of those guys who needs to feel like he has a big role on the team in order to effective.


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## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>JNice</b>!
> At this point, i'd be just plain happy to see Hill on the court whether he is starting, coming off the bench, or whatever.


Yea, that's very true too.



> But I think you are right .. I got the sense from Turkoglu that he is one of those guys who needs to feel like he has a big role on the team in order to effective.


I get that sense from Hedo too. The numbers in games where he starts and where he comes off the bench back it up too. Regardless of the minutes he plays, he always seems to be better off when he's starting.


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## Tersk (Apr 9, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>hobojoe</b>!
> 
> Yea, that's very true too.
> 
> ...


I always thought that as well, if you look at San Antonio last year you have to wonder why he started for the majority of the season.

Even though theres a 10 minute differential, here are the stats when he's a starter/substitute

*Starter* 
30.2 Minutes Per Game
11 Points Per Game
5.1 Rebounds Per Game
2.2 Assists Per Game
1.18 Steals Per Game
43% FG
44% 3PT
69% FT

*Substitute* 
20.6 Minutes Per Game
7 Points Per Game
3.7 Rebounds Per Game
1.6 Assists Per Game
.78 Steals Per Game
37% FG
37% 3PT
73% FT

Although the stats don't really indicate that much of a difference because of the 10 minute differential, there was one stat that stood out, shooting percentage. When Hedo starts, stats show that he is much more "confident" in a way as he shoots better (which is just as much mental as it is physical). 

Another thing, do you really expect Grant to come back and get 30 minutes a game? I mean the guy has been injured for what? 3 years and you want to play him 30 minutes. I think thats too much, you don't want to risk hurting him again due to to much use of his ankle now do you?


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## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>theo4002</b>!
> 
> Another thing, do you really expect Grant to come back and get 30 minutes a game? I mean the guy has been injured for what? 3 years and you want to play him 30 minutes. I think thats too much, you don't want to risk hurting him again due to to much use of his ankle now do you?


To be quite frank, yes I do want Grant Hill to come back and play 30 minutes per game. If he can't handle it and his ankle screws up again at the beginning of the season, he retires and his salary comes off the books. If he can handle it, I fully expect him to be one of our most effective players. Point being, we need to test him at the beginning of the season and see what he can do so we know what to expect for the rest of the season.


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## Tersk (Apr 9, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>hobojoe</b>!
> 
> 
> To be quite frank, yes I do want Grant Hill to come back and play 30 minutes per game. If he can't handle it and his ankle screws up again at the beginning of the season, he retires and his salary comes off the books. If he can handle it, I fully expect him to be one of our most effective players. Point being, we need to test him at the beginning of the season and see what he can do so we know what to expect for the rest of the season.


I think you should start Hill with about 15 minutes for the preseason, if he handles it bring it up to 20 for the first 10 or so games off the season. If all goes well, I think you should play him at about 27 a game with a few 20min or a few 35 min games


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## Dark Praetor (Mar 20, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>theo4002</b>!
> 
> 
> I think you should start Hill with about 15 minutes for the preseason, if he handles it bring it up to 20 for the first 10 or so games off the season. If all goes well, I think you should play him at about 27 a game with a few 20min or a few 35 min games


I wouldn't. He's been doing work-out's for what, two hours at a time, and been fine. I want him to go hard every game at the beginning, and thus if he goes down, he'll be our Terrell Brando guy.


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## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Dark Praetor</b>!
> 
> 
> I wouldn't. He's been doing work-out's for what, two hours at a time, and been fine. I want him to go hard every game at the beginning, and thus if he goes down, he'll be our Terrell Brando guy.


:yes: 

Minnesota got Sprewell for Terrell Brandon, we could easily get a good player with Hill's contract if he goes down.


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## JNice (Jul 13, 2002)

Well, I just read on Orlando Sentinel that Orlando has one of the top 10 payrolls in the NBA now, well over the cap. I hadn't realized it but Orlando took on a lot of salary this summer.

Which means to me even more that Orlando needs to push Hill even more at the beginning of the season. If he is gonna go down, let it go down real early so Orlando has the opportunity to do a Brandon-Spreewell type deal.

Previously I had thought that if he went down again he would just opt out and let Orlando free from his contract, but if Orlando is that far over the cap even his large salary coming off might only bring Orlando back to even with the cap, which really doesn't do much.


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## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>JNice</b>!
> Well, I just read on Orlando Sentinel that Orlando has one of the top 10 payrolls in the NBA now, well over the cap. I hadn't realized it but Orlando took on a lot of salary this summer.
> 
> Which means to me even more that Orlando needs to push Hill even more at the beginning of the season. If he is gonna go down, let it go down real early so Orlando has the opportunity to do a Brandon-Spreewell type deal.
> ...


Yep, we're not going to have any cap room any time soon, regardless of what happens with Hill. We're pretty much limited to re-signing our players and using the MLE for the next few seasons.


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## TommyAngel21 (Oct 5, 2004)

I think you do bring up a good point with Turkoglu, hes a cluth shooters, but also he can be very weird at times, like he doesnt know what hes doing, and i dont think we need that, i believe that the Kings ruined him, im glad he got out of there, we know he can shoot, but if Hill is a 100% healthy and we want to push him just to see, he should be starting, Turkoglu isnt going to bring attention from Mobley and Francis like Hill will be able to, getting them open shots and what not. I want to see Hill play like everyone else, but like i said if he is 100% and ready to go, then start him.


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## TommyAngel21 (Oct 5, 2004)

clutch** my mistake.


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## Dark Praetor (Mar 20, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>TommyAngel21</b>!
> I want to see Hill play like everyone else, but like i said if he is 100% and ready to go, then start him.


I wouldn't. Hedo has that mentality which makes him play badly if he doesn't start.

Likely thing is, Hill will get 25-30 minutes straight away anyway, so we can make sure he won't go down.


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## TommyAngel21 (Oct 5, 2004)

Yeah i understand that, but if hes the old Grant Hill 100% then hes going to be getting 40 min a night. Magic are going to use him hard, and i doubt Turkoglu will start over Hill. I agree that he does play better when starting, I just dont see him over Hill.


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## hobojoe (Jun 20, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>TommyAngel21</b>!
> I think you do bring up a good point with Turkoglu, hes a cluth shooters, but also he can be very weird at times, like he doesnt know what hes doing, and i dont think we need that, i believe that the Kings ruined him, im glad he got out of there, we know he can shoot, but if Hill is a 100% healthy and we want to push him just to see, he should be starting, Turkoglu isnt going to bring attention from Mobley and Francis like Hill will be able to, getting them open shots and what not. I want to see Hill play like everyone else, but like i said if he is 100% and ready to go, then start him.


You bring up a good point about Turkoglu being clutch. It'd be extremely tough to find anyone in the entire league last season that put up as good numbers in the clutch as Hedo did. 

Per 48 in the Clutch:
9.9-16.2 FG(61.1%), 27.1 points

Compare that to the likes of Kobe, Bibby and Reggie Miller, the "clutch" players in the league:

Kobe Bryant: 
12.8-32.5 FG(39.6%), 47.5 points

Mike Bibby:
7.7-20.7 FG(37.1%), 28.7 points

Reggie Miller:
5.1-13.1 FG(38.6%), 22.9 points

Sure Bibby and Kobe score more, but they shoot a lot more than him. Look at the percentages; Three of the most well known clutch players in the league all shoot below 40% from the floor in the clutch whereas Turkoglu shoots over 60%. 

http://82games.com/03SAS12E.HTM
http://82games.com/03LAL6E.HTM
http://82games.com/03SAC1E.HTM
http://82games.com/03IND6E.HTM


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## TommyAngel21 (Oct 5, 2004)

Yeah he is a great clutch shooter, and i do think the magic are goin to use him alot because they are planning to maybe run Hill at the point a little bit. So its going to be an interesting season.


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## BallBiologist (Mar 29, 2003)

Under weisbrod's ideology...its going to be a team game...so we'll see our lesseer players starting...

Starting lineup some games:

Mich Bradley
Mario Kasun
Garrity
Deshanw Stevenson
Nelson


haha j/k


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## TommyAngel21 (Oct 5, 2004)

Yeah i know that...but its Grant Hill, the much better player, theyre goin to run him hard just to see if hes going to hurt or not. They want to start him, right now i dont even think Turkoglu is even in contention for the starting spot, i think Hill has it. I'm not saying i dont like him, because he is a good player, i just think Hill has the advantage.


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## JNice (Jul 13, 2002)

It might be better overall to start Turkoglu and bring Hill off the bench, however, it Hill is really healthy and it appears he is, I think it would be pretty damned hard to keep him out of the starting lineup. Although Grant has said he would have no problem coming off the bench ...


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## TommyAngel21 (Oct 5, 2004)

I kno but still..i dont see them not starting Hill, it just doesnt seem possbile to me.


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