# Predictions of the 2003 draft's Players in their Prime



## Ballishere (May 24, 2003)

Try predicting the stats of 2003 NBA draft's players when they reach their prime.

Lebron James:
32.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 6.5 apg, 2.6 spg,FG: .512%

Camelo Anthony:
24.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.3 apg, FG: .452%

Darko Milicic:
29.7 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.7 bpg, FG: .521%

Chris Bosh:
23.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 2.5 bpg, FG: .517%


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## ltrain99 (Apr 27, 2003)

Those are all incredible numbers. They are all possible but, I doubt those will all happen. I bet 1 or 2 will, but knowing which is the hard part.:grinning:


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## chapi (Apr 4, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Ballishere</b>!
> Try predicting the stats of 2003 NBA draft's players when they reach their prime.
> 
> Lebron James:
> ...


Lebron:yes
Melo: you put to many rebs but he will score close to 28-29 someday
Darko: He will never score 29,7 he might be close to 25 ppg.
Bosh: never seen him playing


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## SkywalkerAC (Sep 20, 2002)

32.5 seems too good to sustain through a season in today's nba. you're going to need a lot of shots to get that number and i doubt he can shoot that %. then again, who knows, maybe his court vision will make him "impossible" to double team.


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## allenive21 (Jul 28, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>SkywalkerAC</b>!
> 32.5 seems too good to sustain through a season in today's nba. you're going to need a lot of shots to get that number and i doubt he can shoot that %. then again, who knows, maybe his court vision will make him "impossible" to double team.


That and perhaps the posse of cameramen could actually blind the defense so LeBron could score easily. The only thing LeBron needs is some shades.


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## JerryWest (Jun 24, 2002)

cut everyone's numbers about 40 to 50 % and you about where I think they will end up


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## bender (Jul 15, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>SkywalkerAC</b>!
> 32.5 seems too good to sustain through a season in today's nba. you're going to need a lot of shots to get that number and i doubt he can shoot that %.


Why? Kobe Bryant had 40+ ppg thru February, and shot close to .500 FG%. Even ESPN admits he could average 40 (!!) thru a whole season (assumed he has the "Allen Iverson green light").
And, didn't Tracy McGrady average 32.1 ppg this year? He could increase that numbers next year (he's only 24).


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## Bball_Doctor (Dec 29, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>bender</b>!
> 
> Why? Kobe Bryant had 40+ ppg thru February, and shot close to .500 FG%. Even ESPN admits he could average 40 (!!) thru a whole season (assumed he has the "Allen Iverson green light").
> And, didn't Tracy McGrady average 32.1 ppg this year? He could increase that numbers next year (he's only 24).


Kobe is good but average 40 ppg a whole season? Probably not...35 ppg is a possibilty. Only 1 player in history has ever averaged 40 ppg in a season and that is Wilt. MJ couldn't even do it and he is by far the most complete scorer ever.

Back to the original thread:

Some of those stats are unbelivable!!!! and most unlikely. A dream but sadly not reality.

In the real world these are the peaks I see for these 4 guys. They don't neccessarily have to occur in the same season....these are their potential peaks IMO. 

Lebron 25-30 ppg, 7-9 rpg, 7-9 apg.
Melo 25-27 ppg, 6-7 rpg, 3-5 apg.
Darko 22-27 ppg, 9-10 rpg, 3-5 apg.
Bosh 21-23 ppg, 10-12 rpg, 2-3 apg.

You have to remember often players do not hit their prime the same time as their statisically primes. Look at Jordan or Ewing.


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## bender (Jul 15, 2002)

The "Kobe for 40 ppg" discussion:

_"Kobe is good but average 40 ppg a whole season? Probably not...35 ppg is a possibilty."_

It's not like I "invented" that theory. ESPN's Ralph Wiley said it in his article on Kobe.

_"Observing Kobe's most recent scoring jag -- 44.6 per in the last five, nine straight with 35 points or more, best scoring run-out the NBA has seen since the mid-'80s, when Mike Jordan was 24 and 25, the same age Kobe is now -- we may conclude Kobe is the greatest scoring force in the league. Ever.
...
So, could Kobe average 50 a game, which Wilt did for one season? No. I don't believe he can do that. He could, but it would simply require too many shots, he would take too much of a physical beating, his arm might fall off, etc.

Could Kobe average 40? Oh, yes."_

It seems like Wiley thinks, the only thing that hinders Kobe to score literally at will isn't the opposing defense, but the physical strain for him.

Question for you, Doc: Isn't it right that Kobe has a bigger repertoire of options on offense than Jordan (he shoots better from 3pt, etc.)?

The "2003 Draftees during their Prime" discussion:

_"Lebron James:
32.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 6.5 apg, 2.6 spg,FG: .512%"_

I don't think LeBron will become that kind of a scorer. IMO he'll focus on making assists rather than making points. I bet he'll have 20-25 ppg and 8-10 apg.


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## JerryWest (Jun 24, 2002)

I agree w/ bender...

as for primes I think you have FG% way to high for today's game

Lebron James:
22 ppg, 6 rpg, 9 apg, 2 spg,FG: .450 %

Camelo Anthony:
24 ppg, 9 rpg, 2 apg, FG: .445%

Darko Milicic:
22 ppg, 10 rpg, 1 apg, 2 bpg, FG: .480%


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## Bball_Doctor (Dec 29, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>bender</b>!
> The "Kobe for 40 ppg" discussion:
> 
> _"Kobe is good but average 40 ppg a whole season? Probably not...35 ppg is a possibilty."_
> ...


Jordan was relentless as far as scoring in his early days. He was unstoppable. I don't know if you watched a Jordan in the mid 80s or not. Jordan was clearly better in the early 90s but wanted to win more than stack individual stats. MJ was the most likely person to score 40 ppg not named Wilt but he never did. I don't even think he can sustain that in his prime. Kobe has more range to his shot and a somewhat better post game than MJ did in 86 when he posted 37.1 ppg but MJ was quicker, better dribbler, better midrange, and attacked the basket more. One reason why MJ scored so much was because he went to the line A LOT. MJ averaged 35 ppg in only 24 shots per game in 87. Players today shoot 24 shots per game and only score 30 ppg. I really do not think Kobe will score 40 ppg in a whole season....more importantly playing a whole season scoring 40 ppg. Wiley has made A LOT of "off the world" comments and I think you know most people's opinion of him on this board. He is somewhat like Walton. Kobe could very well average 35 ppg in a team structure that allows him to shoot at least 30 shots per game. 40 is a long stretch. That 40 point streak was a streak and nothing more.


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## LionOfJudah (May 27, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Ballishere</b>!
> Try predicting the stats of 2003 NBA draft's players when they reach their prime.
> 
> Lebron James:
> ...


This is an EXXXXtreeeeemly optimistic look at these 4 players.

Melo might be the most accurate prediction. But I don't see the rest doing all that. I'm not doubting they won't do good, just not that good. Now for Bosh, he's a big IF in my book. IF he gets some meat on him and learns to play physical he very well could put up those numbers.... but thats a big IF. Other wise he gets thrown around the paint like a 6'10" 210 pound guy should.


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## bender (Jul 15, 2002)

@Bball_Doctor

_"Jordan was relentless as far as scoring in his early days. He was unstoppable. I don't know if you watched a Jordan in the mid 80s or not. Jordan was clearly better in the early 90s but wanted to win more than stack individual stats."_

I didn't see him. I only saw some highlight tapes, but they only show the dunks on it, not the "usual way" Jordan used to score.

_"I really do not think Kobe will score 40 ppg in a whole season....more importantly playing a whole season scoring 40 ppg."_

I know, it seems almost impossible for a player (other than Chamberlain) to average 40 in a whole season. But in fact, Bryant was the only player other than Chamberlain the average 40 in a whole month. Kobe did so many unthinkable things over the last years, that I do not know where his "limits" are. He made 56 points against Memphis last year in only 34 minutes. He scored 51 against Denver this year in only 31 minutes. He had 42 against Washington at the half ... Who thought any player other than Chamberlain could make so many points at the half (Jordans best is 39 at the half)?

_"Kobe could very well average 35 ppg in a team structure that allows him to shoot at least 30 shots per game."_

During his 40pt-streak he averaged 44 points, while taking 31 shots a game. I don't know if he was "only" on fire, but that is pretty impressive. He made 139 of 280 shots in 9 games.

_"Wiley has made A LOT of "off the world" comments and I think you know most people's opinion of him on this board."_

Honestly I don't know "most people's opinion" of Wiley. :shy:


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## Bball_Doctor (Dec 29, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>bender</b>!
> @Bball_Doctor
> 
> _"Jordan was relentless as far as scoring in his early days. He was unstoppable. I don't know if you watched a Jordan in the mid 80s or not. Jordan was clearly better in the early 90s but wanted to win more than stack individual stats."_
> ...


1) I really recommend getting ESPN Classic if you can...I don't know if in Germany you have it. Sometimes they replay games of MJ in his youth. It is simply breath taking. Dunks are only highlights. I don't understand when you say MJ's "usual" way to score....r u talking about fadeaways? becuz that is an old MJ. MJ is all about taking it to the rim and midrange when he was in his youth. In early 90's he added a post game to go along with that. In MJ's second comeback he became primarily a post scorer. The MJ in the second comeback was the worst out of the three although his team had the most success....it was his weakess IMO as a player. Early 90's was MJ's prime.

2) Kobe had great games and great halves but he has to do that 80 games to score 40 ppg a season. Last year Kobe only scored 40 points in 18 games. The most MJ ever had was 24 times I believe. Also, I don't understand when a lot of people say Kobe would have scored 70 points if he played the whole game. Point is..."could have" and "would have" is two different things. Case and point...in that 42 point half game...I bet people were saying 70 points but Kobe ended up only scoing 13 points in the second half. Don't get me wrong Kobe has had amazing games but hey even George Gervin scored 53 points in the first half only to end up with 10 in his second and 63 total. 

3) Taking over 30 spg for a whole season WILL take a toll on someone's body. Don't forget about fatigue. That is why I don't see 40 ppg for a whole year becuz it is hard to see someone sustain that kind of consistency and stamina. I even think MJ in his prime could not do it. Only a few players have EVER shot over 30 spg in the NBA. MJ didn't even do it. AI's most is 28 spg. If people were criticizing AI for taking too many shots imagine if someone were to take 2 more. That is why I said that 40 point streak was a streak...a GREAT streak but nothing more. An NBA season is 82 games not 9.

4) I apologize I thought you must have read people's comments about that Wiley article. I remember it being a thread quite some time ago during Kobe's streak. Don't take that article too seriously. Wiley is no genius, is quite illogical and often over exaggerates just about everything.

Bottom line is that a player must be able to sustain absolute consistency and stamina in order to average 40 ppg in a season. 
No one other than Wilt can do it. Wilt averaged nearly the whole game each time he did it and took well over 30 spg and made a lot of them. Heck if he made his FTs he could have had 3 50 ppg seasons....unbelivably dominant. I really do not think anyone can do it not even a Jordan in his prime but he did be close. Kobe is a great player and I have maintained that he is the most skilled player in the league for 3 years now but 40 ppg is highly unlikely. 35 ppg is a possibility but also unlikely but definitely a higher possibility than 40. For example, after Kobe's 40 point streak he really cooled down...even he admitted he was fatigue. Anyone who watched Kobe during that streak would also comment that in some games he was trying to get 40 so hard that at times it hurt the team by him forcing some absolutely ridiculous shots. It will be a LONG time before we see another player average 40 ppg...heck it might never happen again. That is why Wilt is the most dominant scorer EVER.


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## bender (Jul 15, 2002)

_"I don't understand when you say MJ's "usual" way to score....r u talking about fadeaways? becuz that is an old MJ. MJ is all about taking it to the rim and midrange when he was in his youth."_

Well, on highlight tapes they don't show his perimeter game. Methinks he didn't dunk it all the time, did he?  That's why I said "usual way of scoring", I could have said "other than dunk", too.

_"Taking over 30 spg for a whole season WILL take a toll on someone's body. Don't forget about fatigue. That is why I don't see 40 ppg for a whole year becuz it is hard to see someone sustain that kind of consistency and stamina. I even think MJ in his prime could not do it. Only a few players have EVER shot over 30 spg in the NBA. MJ didn't even do it."_

I know what you mean. But I don't think it's impossible for a wing player to take 30+ spg. Elgin Baylor took 33 spg while averaging 38.3 ppg.
We agree so far that it is a question of stamina for Kobe. Let's say his physical limit is 30 spg. He would be close to 40 ppg, IMO...


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## Bball_Doctor (Dec 29, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>bender</b>!
> _"I don't understand when you say MJ's "usual" way to score....r u talking about fadeaways? becuz that is an old MJ. MJ is all about taking it to the rim and midrange when he was in his youth."_
> 
> Well, on highlight tapes they don't show his perimeter game. Methinks he didn't dunk it all the time, did he?  That's why I said "usual way of scoring", I could have said "other than dunk", too.
> ...


If he took over 30 spg getting 35 ppg is a high possibility. To get 40 ppg he must also go to the line a lot. Unfortunately Baylor was injured in that season in which he scored 38.3 ppg. That is why sadly it is never listed in almanacs amongst greatest scoring seasons because he only played 48 games. But that season Baylor went to the line an INCREDIBLE 13.1 times a game! I understand now what you meant by "usual way of scoring"...I had thought you didn't mean fadeaways but just to make sure:grinning: . Yeah MJ did more than dunks but he averaged like 6 dunks a game in his rookie year...the greatest dunking exhibition by a player in a season. Vince's rookie year is very close. All in all...40 ppg is a far reach BUT I do agree with you that out of all the players in the NBA right now...Kobe would be the most likely to do it....but I never see it happening.


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## bender (Jul 15, 2002)

_"If he took over 30 spg getting 35 ppg is a high possibility. To get 40 ppg he must also go to the line a lot."_ 

That is exactly what Kobe did in February. He made 14 games and averaged 40.6 ppg. He needed 29.4 spg and went 12.5 times to the line (per game). He also attempted 5.5 spg behind the 3-point-arc (something they didn't have when Baylor scored his 38.3) and hit 42.8% of them.


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## Vintage (Nov 8, 2002)

LeBron James:
25-27 ppg 6-8 rpg 6-8 apg

Carmelo Anthony:
23-25ppg 6-8 rpg 3-5 apg

Darko Milicic:
22-24ppg 11-13 rpg 2-4 bpg

Chris Bosh:
18-20 ppg 10-12 rpg 2-4 bpg

For all those that predicted Carmelo, Darko, and LeBrons stats on page 1 with those extremely high stats, you are basically saying that LeBron will be better than MJ, Darko better than Duncan/Shaq, and Carmelo better than Pippen/Garnett.

Not likely. 

Its not likely that all of those players become considered as some of the greatest players EVER. Will those three bee good? Yes. But will all 3 be deserving of "one of the greatest ever" title? Unlikely.

Edit: Only Ballishere is the one who posted those high stats....


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## Bball_Doctor (Dec 29, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>bender</b>!
> _"If he took over 30 spg getting 35 ppg is a high possibility. To get 40 ppg he must also go to the line a lot."_
> 
> That is exactly what Kobe did in February. He made 14 games and averaged 40.6 ppg. He needed 29.4 spg and went 12.5 times to the line (per game). He also attempted 5.5 spg behind the 3-point-arc (something they didn't have when Baylor scored his 38.3) and hit 42.8% of them.


The problem is that that is only 14 games not 82. It was a streak...even Kobe admitted he was fatigued after that. His scoring went down to 28 ppg after that streak for the remaining months. Kobe would need to go on an 82 game streak of hot shooting to average 40 ppg. It is wishful thinking for any Kobe fan:grinning: but in the end it is highly unlikely to happen.


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## "Matt!" (Jul 24, 2002)

I posted this on the draft board, just figured I should post here too.

"Guys, there is something that REALLY bothers me on these boards! 

According to people who predict stats, everyone in the league who is supposed to be picked a top 10 is going to be a superstar, averaging 25/10/5 at their prime! DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE AVERAGED 20 PPG THIS YEAR? 25, and I think maybe 6 weren't All-Stars. You have to learn that sometimes, yes, big marquee draft picks are busts! Hell, they might only average 15/7 at the peak of their career, and you know what, THAT DOESN'T SUCK!

According to projections, people have the Bulls starting 5 averaging 120 PPG based on potential! All of these players will not be superstars, guaranteed!"


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## Nevus (Jun 3, 2003)

*Top Three*

I think that out of the top three in this draft, Darko Milicic is most likely to become a superstar-level player eventually. LeBron will be a superstar for a while regardless of how he plays, but in terms of performance, I think Darko is most likely to achieve this.

I think he has as much potential as LeBron, and I believe he will work harder and stay more focused. I'm not convinced that LeBron has the desire or the heart that it takes to reach that level... things have come so easy for him up to this point that there is no way to tell what kind of guts he'll have or how bad he will want it. 

I'm not convinced that Carmelo has the drive or the determination to be that kind of player either. 

I think Darko does though... I think he is one of the most intense and determined players to enter the league in a while. 

He is going to be very, very good for a long, long time, unless something unfortunate happens. Everyone around the league is looking for the next Jordan or Magic, but I think the near future is going to be dominated by this type of big, mobile combo forward.


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## bl611 (May 7, 2003)

So Darko is going hardworking, but not Lebron and Carmeol huh?....Since it's impossible to judge how three players who grew up in poverty will react to money and fame what makes you say that? Not to make everything thing into a race issue ( possibly a nationality issue?), but what is your reasoning behind that?


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## Vince Carter (Jan 9, 2003)

LeBron James 29ppg 7.6rpg and 6.5apg
Carmelo Anthony 26.7ppg 9.9 rpg 2.3apg 1.2 bpg
Darko Milicic 23.9 ppg 8.6rpg 1.9apg 1.1 bpg
Chris Bosh 26.1 ppg 10.8 rpg 3.4 apg 2.1 bpg


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## Nevus (Jun 3, 2003)

It's not reasoning, it's just my sense of the three. I believe Darko is more determined to improve and more willing to work hard based on what I have read about him, interviews, etc. There is no question that he is a lot more intense than LeBron and Carmelo and I just get the feeling he will be that kind of player.

I have no idea what you are implying about race, nationality, poverty, or anything. I'm talking about these three certain people and what I think of their attitudes.


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## bl611 (May 7, 2003)

But what basis do you have at this point to judge any/all of their attitudes?


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## bl611 (May 7, 2003)

How do you figure Darko's more intense? In every interview I've read with Darko he sounds very blahzay blahzay, that could be due to the language barrier, but still what qualifies that statement?


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## CelticsMan (Aug 28, 2015)

Darko... 29 and 14???


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

The Darko numbers are funny, but I think it's also crazy that the OP stopped at the 4th pick. No Wade considerations at all in this thread.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Ballishere said:


> Try predicting the stats of 2003 NBA draft's players when they reach their prime.
> 
> Lebron James:
> 32.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 6.5 apg, 2.6 spg,FG: .512%
> ...


*Lebron*'s actual best season: *26.8/8.0/7.3/1.7/0.9 on 57/41/75* shooting splits

*Melo'*s actual peak season: *28.9/6.0/3.8/1.2/0.4 on 48/29/81* shooting

*Bosh*'s actual peak year: *24.0/10.8/2.4/0.6/1.0 on 52/36/80* shooting

*Darko*'s actual best year: *8.8/5.2/1.5/0.8/2.0 on 47/0/56* shooting

The OP was super close on Bosh. And for posterity's sake...

*Wade*'s best season: *30.2/5.0/7.5/2.2/1.3 on 49/32/77* shooting


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