# Tracking the Ping Pong Balls



## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

For the lovely NBA Lottery, the chances of having the winning combination are distributed as follows:

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

However, this season, we need to also look at the probability of having a top 3 pick since the pick is Top 3 protected

<table border=2 width=80% rules=all bgcolor=white><tr><td align="left">Team</td> <td>Chances</td> <td>1st</td> <td>2nd</td> <td>3rd</td> <td>4th</td> <td>5th</td> <td>6th</td> <td>7th</td> <td>8th</td> <td>9th</td> <td>10th</td> <td>11th</td> <td>12th</td> <td>13th</td> <td>14th</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">1
</td> <td>250</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.215</td> <td>.177</td> <td>.358</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">2</td> <td>199</td> <td>.199</td> <td>.188</td> <td>.171</td> <td>.319</td> <td>.124</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">3</td> <td>138</td> <td>.138</td> <td>.142</td> <td>.145</td> <td>.238</td> <td>.290</td> <td>.045</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">4</td> <td>137</td> <td>.137</td> <td>.142</td> <td>.145</td> <td>.085</td> <td>.323</td> <td>.156</td> <td>.013</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">5</td> <td>88</td> <td>.088</td> <td>.096</td> <td>.106</td> <td>
</td> <td>.262</td> <td>.359</td> <td>.084</td> <td>.004</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">6</td> <td>53</td> <td>.053</td> <td>.060</td> <td>.070</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.440</td> <td>.330</td> <td>.045</td> <td>.001</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">7</td> <td>53</td> <td>.053</td> <td>.060</td> <td>.070</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.573</td> <td>.226</td> <td>.018</td> <td>.000</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">8</td> <td>23</td> <td>.023</td> <td>.027</td> <td>.032</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.725</td> <td>.184</td> <td>.009</td> <td>.000</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">9</td> <td>22</td> <td>.022</td> <td>.026</td> <td>.031</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.797</td> <td>.121</td> <td>.004</td> <td>.000</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">10</td> <td>11</td> <td>.011</td> <td>.013</td> <td>.016</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.870</td> <td>.089</td> <td>.002</td> <td>.000</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">11</td> <td>8</td> <td>.008</td> <td>.009</td> <td>.012</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.908</td> <td>.063</td> <td>.001</td> <td>.000</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">12</td> <td>7</td> <td>.007</td> <td>.008</td> <td>.010</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.935</td> <td>.039</td> <td>.000</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">13
</td> <td>6</td> <td>.006</td> <td>.007</td> <td>.009</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.960</td> <td>.018</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">14
</td> <td>5</td> <td>.005</td> <td>.006</td> <td>.007</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>.982</td></tr></table>


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

The Hawks are currently 14-26 (.350), which places them as the #5 team in the lottery

Memphis 11-32 (.256)
Boston 12-29 (.293)
Philadelphia 13-30 (.302) 
Charlotte 14-27 (.341) 
*Atlanta 14-26 (.350)* 
Seattle 16-26 (.381) 
New Orl/OKC 16-25 (.390) 
Milwaukee 17-25 (.405) 
New York 18-26 (.409)	
Portland 18-25 (.419)
Sacramento 17 23 (.425)


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Dating back to 2000, here's how it shaked down.

2006: 5th place team wins lottery (Toronto - Andrea Bargnani)
Atlanta was the 4th worst team in the league, and picked 5th. (Atlanta - Shelden Williams)

2005: 6th place team wins lottery (Milwaukee - Andrew Bogut)
Atlanta was the worst team in the league, and picked 2nd. (Atlanta - Marvin Williams)

2004: 1st place team wins lottery (Orlando - Dwight Howard)
Atlanta was the 5th worst team in the league, and picked 6th. (Atlanta - Josh Childress)

2003: 1st place team wins lottery (Cleveland - LeBron James)
Atlanta was the 8th worst team in the league, and picked 8th. (Milwaukee - TJ Ford)

2002: 5th place team wins lottery (Houston - Yao Ming)
Atlanta was the 8th worst team in the league, and picked 8th. (Los Angeles - Chris Kaman)

2001: 3rd place team wins lottery (Washington - Kwame Brown)
Atlanta was the 5th worst team in the league, and picked 3rd. (Memphis - Pau Gasol)

2000: 7th place team wins lottery (New Jersey - Kenyon Martin)
Atlanta was the 5th worst team in the league, and picked 6th. (Atlanta - DerMarr Johnson)

For now on when someone comes in & asks why the Hawks always suck, I will reference this post here.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

TheATLien said:


> For now on when someone comes in & asks why the Hawks always suck, I will reference this post here.


The luck may not have been there for draft position, but there was always at least 1 better player available to select.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

_May _not have been there? The only time that they landed a draft position higher than their record, they didn't even keep the pick! Good grief.

If Atlanta does end up shipping their pick to Phoenix (and it will happen), the NBA needs to set a ban on the Hawks from ever trading away their first round pick.. for at least a decade. That ****'s crazy. You can almost make a playoff team with those players.

PG Ford
SG Empty
SF Durant
PF Gasol
C Kaman


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

TheATLien said:


> _May _not have been there? The only time that they landed a draft position higher than their record, they didn't even keep the pick! Good grief.
> 
> If Atlanta does end up shipping their pick to Phoenix (and it will happen), the NBA needs to set a ban on the Hawks from ever trading away their first round pick.. for at least a decade. That ****'s crazy. You can almost make a playoff team with those players.
> 
> ...


Look on the bright side, Durant will be picked before the Suns could get to him. 

[sarcasm]
But look at the all-stars the Hawks got in return for those trades

PG: Jamaal Tinsley -> Boris Diaw (draft pick that Tinsley was traded for)
SG: Joe Johnson
SF: Glen Robinson
PF: SAR
C: Lorenzen Wright

[/sarcasm]


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Hawks will likely be getting the Pacers pick this year it looks like. It's top-10 protected, but they seem to be playing well. Right now, it's at #18. Which is still bad, but will there be any PG's available? Unfortunately, I don't know of any good ones. Even in the lottery, I don't see any good PG's. I guess we passed on all the good ones already.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

TheATLien said:


> Hawks will likely be getting the Pacers pick this year it looks like. It's top-10 protected, but they seem to be playing well. Right now, it's at #18. Which is still bad, but will there be any PG's available? Unfortunately, I don't know of any good ones. Even in the lottery, I don't see any good PG's. I guess we passed on all the good ones already.


If Steele comes out, he might be there. Shakur has been playing much better. Stuckey, if he comes out might be there and would be a good combo guard to pair with JJ.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Kind of ironic, for 3 seasons the Hawks struggled to find a tall combo guard to pair with Jason Terry. They tried Emanual Davis, Boris Diaw, Travis Hansen and others.

They traded JT for nothing, then get Joe Johnson. And now they are struggling again to find a guard, this time a smaller one to pair up. :laugh:


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

TheATLien said:


> Kind of ironic, for 3 seasons the Hawks struggled to find a tall combo guard to pair with Jason Terry. They tried Emanual Davis, Boris Diaw, Travis Hansen and others.
> 
> They traded JT for nothing, then get Joe Johnson. And now they are struggling again to find a guard, this time a smaller one to pair up. :laugh:


I'm sure Mark Cuban is very thankful of the Hawks for trading Jason Terry for Antoine Walker


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## WildByNature (Jul 13, 2005)

so currently the Hawks have about a 9.5% chance of getting in the a Top 3 Pick, Wow. I would not take that to Vegas.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

WildByNature said:


> so currently the Hawks have about a 9.5% chance of getting in the a Top 3 Pick, Wow. I would not take that to Vegas.


29%.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

Memphis lost
Boston lost
Philadelphia lost
Charlotte won
Atlanta won
Seattle won
Hornets won
Milwukee lost
New York won
Portland lost
Sacramento lost

The Hawks are now 15-26 (.366), which keeps them as the #5 team in the lottery

Memphis 11-33 (.250)
Boston 12-30 (.288)
Philadelphia 13-31 (.295) 
Charlotte 15-27 (.357) 
*Atlanta 15-26 (.366)* 
Seattle 17-26 (.395) 
Milwaukee 17-26 (.395)
New Orl/OKC 17-25 (.405) 
Portland 18-26 (.409)
Sacramento 17-24(.415)
New York 19-26 (.422)


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

The only time any of those bottom 5 teams will win a game is when they play each other.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

Still in the #5 spot

Memphis 11-34 (0.244)
Boston 12-31 (0.279)
Philadelphia 14-31 (0.311)
Charlotte 15-28 (0.349)
* Atlanta 15-27 (0.357)*
Seattle 17-27 (0.386)
Sacramento 17-25 (0.405)
Milwaukee 18-26 (0.409)
New York 19-27 (0.413)
New Orl/OKC 18-25 (0.419)
Portland 19-26 (0.422)


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

TheATLien said:


> The only time any of those bottom 5 teams will win a game is when they play each other.


Yeah, but did you expect the Hawks to lose to the Sixers?


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

I expect the Hawks to lose to everybody


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## WildByNature (Jul 13, 2005)

is that so PHX does not get ATL pick this year or cuz the Hawks are that bad?


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

the last 1.

with the Hawks luck, they would end up with the worst record & drop to the 4th pick in the draft.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

WildByNature said:


> is that so PHX does not get ATL pick this year or cuz the Hawks are that bad?


My guess is that it has nothing to do with the Suns. I'm pretty sure TheATLien is convinced that even if the Hawks end up with the worst record that they'll lose the lottery and end up with the 4th pick.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

TheATLien said:


> the last 1.
> 
> with the Hawks luck, they would end up with the worst record & drop to the 4th pick in the draft.


See, I was correct.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Ok, WTF. They beat the Magic? Come on Orlando. You can do better.


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## edyzbasketball (Nov 16, 2005)

I wonder why Atlanta has soooo many bad records in the last couple of years...


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

In the Draft Forum, we are having a voting mock draft where each pick will be selected by bbb.net posters.

The vote for #1 http://www.basketballforum.com/showthread.php?t=337215


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Atlanta finished January 8 wins and 7 losses. This is not good people!

We need to finish in the worst three records in the league to have a realistic shot at keeping our pick.


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## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 404pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="538"><col style="width: 92pt;" width="122"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="4" width="64"> <col style="width: 72pt;" width="96"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 92pt;" x:str=" " height="17" width="122"> </td> <td style="width: 48pt;" x:str="W " align="right" width="64">W </td> <td style="width: 48pt;" x:str="L " align="right" width="64">L </td> <td style="width: 48pt;" x:str="PCT " align="right" width="64">PCT </td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 72pt;" x:str="STRK " width="96">STRK </td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">L10</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Memphis " height="17">Memphis </td> <td x:num="" align="right">12</td> <td x:num="" align="right">35</td> <td x:num="0.255" align="right">0.255</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Lost 1 ">Lost 1 </td> <td class="xl24">3-7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Boston " height="17">Boston </td> <td x:num="" align="right">12</td> <td x:num="" align="right">33</td> <td x:num="0.26700000000000002" align="right">0.267</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Lost 13 ">Lost 13 </td> <td class="xl24">0-10</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Philadelphia " height="17">Philadelphia </td> <td x:num="" align="right">15</td> <td x:num="" align="right">32</td> <td x:num="0.31900000000000001" align="right">0.319</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Won 1 ">Won 1 </td> <td class="xl24">5-5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Seattle " height="17">Seattle </td> <td x:num="" align="right">17</td> <td x:num="" align="right">29</td> <td x:num="00.37" align="right">0.37</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Lost 3 ">Lost 3 </td> <td class="xl24">4-6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Charlotte " height="17">Charlotte </td> <td x:num="" align="right">17</td> <td x:num="" align="right">28</td> <td x:num="0.378" align="right">0.378</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Won 2 ">Won 2 </td> <td class="xl24">5-5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl25" style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Atlanta " height="17">*Atlanta *</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="" align="right">*17*</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="" align="right">*27*</td> <td class="xl25" x:num="0.38600000000000001" align="right">*0.386*</td> <td class="xl25">*
*</td> <td class="xl28" x:str="Won 2 ">*Won 2 *</td> <td class="xl26">*6-4*</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Milwaukee " height="17">Milwaukee </td> <td x:num="" align="right">18</td> <td x:num="" align="right">28</td> <td x:num="0.39100000000000001" align="right">0.391</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Lost 2 ">Lost 2 </td> <td class="xl24">2-8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Sacramento " height="17">Sacramento </td> <td x:num="" align="right">18</td> <td x:num="" align="right">26</td> <td x:num="0.40899999999999997" align="right">0.409</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Won 1 ">Won 1 </td> <td class="xl24">4-6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="New York " height="17">New York </td> <td x:num="" align="right">20</td> <td x:num="" align="right">28</td> <td x:num="0.41699999999999998" align="right">0.417</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Lost 1 ">Lost 1 </td> <td class="xl24">4-6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="NO/Oklahoma City " height="17">NO/Oklahoma City </td> <td x:num="" align="right">19</td> <td x:num="" align="right">26</td> <td x:num="0.42199999999999999" align="right">0.422</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Lost 1 ">Lost 1 </td> <td class="xl24">6-4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" x:str="Portland " height="17">Portland </td> <td x:num="" align="right">20</td> <td x:num="" align="right">27</td> <td x:num="0.42599999999999999" align="right">0.426</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl27" x:str="Won 1 ">Won 1 </td> <td class="xl24">6-4</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Atlanta had moved from 5th most ping pong balls to 6th most as Seattle has slid down to 4th most


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Absolutely disgusting


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## WildByNature (Jul 13, 2005)

Someone needs to club JJ knee. Or have the GM make another bone head trade.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Good news

Charlotte is picking it up. Won 2 in a row, but so have we. They are 5-5 in their last 10, & Atlanta is 6-4. Looks like Boston and Philly are committed to this thing, though.


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## Burn (Feb 2, 2003)

This season is turning out to be the worst case scenario. Hawks not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to keep our lottery pick, meanwhile the pick we're getting from Indiana keeps getting lower with Indiana only 2.5 games back for #1 in the east.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Another worst case scenario would be Atlanta keeps the #3 pick, but drafts another bad player like Joakim Noah, sucks another year, & has to give Phoenix next year's pick with no protection.

Everything with this team is worst case scenario.

And they are leading on New Jersey as I type


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

that was a pretty entertaining game vs. NJ actually

Joe continues to impress. He should have made the all star team

Atlanta is now 3.5 games back for the last playoff seed. and 8 wins away from matching last years total.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Boris Diaw sure looked good last night. Boy that trade was some blunder.


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## WildByNature (Jul 13, 2005)

TheATLien said:


> Another worst case scenario would be Atlanta keeps the #3 pick, but drafts another bad player like Joakim Noah, sucks another year, & has to give Phoenix next year's pick with no protection.
> 
> Everything with this team is worst case scenario.


I agree, if Oden stays in college and the Suns get the #1 pick in 2008 (Ping Pongs have to bounce right) then I think that would be a worst scenario then the Suns getting the Hawk's Pick this year. Of course, the Hawk's Pick is currently #7.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

It might not be so bad to give Phoenix pick this year (as long as it isn't the top 1), so they don't have to worry about 2008. I've heard that 2008 is supposed to have some pretty good players, and that way they get to keep it regardless & go back to building the team.

I think after this year, Woodson & Knight are gone. Right now they are lame ducks, IMO.


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## WildByNature (Jul 13, 2005)

I agree about Woodson and Knight. What happened with Belkin?


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Haven't heard anything since before the yr.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

It just shows how bad the East is when 1 week we are talking about aiming for the #1 pick and the next week they are only a few games out of the playoffs.


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## master8492 (Mar 4, 2005)

Isn't it Ironic that you said the east is bad when the west is the one conference who has a 8th seed below .500?


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## WildByNature (Jul 13, 2005)

Hawks are currently at #5 overall in the 2007 Draft. Just stay a way from Top 3 and they can have their pick in the 2008 Draft.


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

Yeah, 5 is a nice spot. Not laste place, but not quite overachieving. Not good enough to make the playoffs, and not bad enough to win the lottery so it's good. [/sarcasm]


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## ATLien (Jun 18, 2002)

It looks like Atlanta is now tied with a bunch of teams for the 3rd worst record.


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