# Bust potential



## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

Give a reason why you think the top 10 player will most likely disappoint the team that drafts him


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

I think the obvious choice is Drummond but I'm actually going to go with Kidd-Gilchrist. I just can't imagine him ever being a star. I just don't know what's the best scenario for someone like him. Gerald Wallace/Iguodala/Artest?


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## Wade County (Jun 22, 2003)

Wallace/Igoudala/Artest are all multiple time all stars. I think any team would be happy to get that.


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## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

Wade County said:


> Wallace/Igoudala/Artest are all multiple time all stars. I think any team would be happy to get that.


Was going to say the same thing.

I went with the easy, obvious choice. Drummond has the biggest bust potential.


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## Floods (Oct 25, 2005)

I don't think anyone, fan or executive, is expecting MKG to be a star anyway. Just a good, steady presence who defends, does all the right things, and helps you win.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

Wade County said:


> Wallace/Igoudala/Artest are all multiple time all stars. I think any team would be happy to get that.


They are not multiple time all stars. 3 allstar appearances between the 3 of them, 1 each. They are decent players but I wouldn't draft any of them in the top 3 of most drafts.

Not to mention Iguodala and Wallace have superior physical tools. Iguodala is much more polished than Gilchrist and both him and Wallace are more athletic. Artest's basketball IQ is much higher as well.

I just don't know any current NBA stars that Gilchrist compares to. His skillset makes him a role player yet on some mock drafts he's listed as a top 3 pick.


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

I don't know where Drummond is going to be taken, but there's so much doubt about his drive that it's hard to see him being a true bust. Everyone can see the guy is a risky proposition. Can you really be a bust if no one really thinks you care enough to ever be great?


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## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

Diable said:


> I don't know where Drummond is going to be taken, but there's so much doubt about his drive that it's hard to see him being a true bust. Everyone can see the guy is a risky proposition. Can you really be a bust if no one really thinks you care enough to ever be great?


Isn't that the epitome of bust? Guys with all the talent in the world, but are too lazy or stupid to realize that talent.


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## roux (Jun 20, 2006)

I went with the big white guy that will probably end up a buck at 12.. dude has no chance if he comes here


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## Damian Necronamous (Jun 10, 2002)

I went Harrison Barnes. These a-holes on ESPN can start the hype train all they want but the fact remains that he seriously failed to impress me in college.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

Yeah Barnes is another one. If he doesn't take his game inside he's nothing more than a spot shooter and those are a dime a dozen.


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

I'm voting "other" because Royce White has a heck of a rack normally and Renardo Sidney might be wearing a C cup these days.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Drummond barely edges out Rivers in my mind.


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## kbdullah (Jul 8, 2010)

Went w/ Drummond b/c these mock drafts have him going as high as #2 based purely on athleticism. I don't like the idea of a project player being drafted by a losing team and not learning the game correctly.


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## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

Diable said:


> I don't know where Drummond is going to be taken, but there's so much doubt about his drive that it's hard to see him being a true bust. Everyone can see the guy is a risky proposition. Can you really be a bust if no one really thinks you care enough to ever be great?


That's how I feel about Drummond, nobody's really going to be surprised if he winds up the next Kwame, while other guys like Barnes and Kidd-Gilchrist are considered sure things to be pretty good, it's just their ceilings in question. Nobody's going to be _shocked_ if Drummond puts on forty pounds and washes out of the league. They might be disappointed, but in the end, that was the rap on him, just like nobody was _shocked_ that Brandon Roy's knees turned him from All-Star to retiree in one year. If Kidd-Gilchrist goes Joe Alexander on us, though, you could legitimately say that nobody saw that coming.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

I think I'm going to start referring to Drummond as Hasheem Thabeet Jr until he proves me wrong.


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## BlakeJesus (Feb 1, 2006)

seifer0406 said:


> They are not multiple time all stars. 3 allstar appearances between the 3 of them, 1 each. They are decent players but I wouldn't draft any of them in the top 3 of most drafts.
> 
> Not to mention Iguodala and Wallace have superior physical tools. Iguodala is much more polished than Gilchrist and both him and Wallace are more athletic. Artest's basketball IQ is much higher as well.
> 
> I just don't know any current NBA stars that Gilchrist compares to. His skillset makes him a role player yet on some mock drafts he's listed as a top 3 pick.


I end up saying this for a lot of comparisons, but I think MKG to Iggy is a lazy comparison unless it's prefaced by saying "poor man's". Maybe people are just unaware, but Iggy is a fantastic ballhandler for a wing player and he can average 5-6 assists any given season. MKG isn't a blackhole or anything, but I do not see that skillset in him. So calling him a less athletic Andre Iquodala with a third as much passing ability doesn't really sound like a top 2-3 pick. Gerald Wallace is a much more apt comparison, I believe.


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## Bubbles (Nov 12, 2005)

roux2dope said:


> I went with the big white guy that will probably end up a buck at 12.. dude has no chance if he comes here


Bingo.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Are you guys referring to Zeller or Leonard?


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## Diable (Apr 26, 2005)

They could be talking about Henson. They just expect the Bucks to draft a stiff


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## Bubbles (Nov 12, 2005)

We are referring to Leonard who our FO seems to love for some reason. If Henson or Zeller are there, I would take them in a heartbeat over Leonard.


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## Bogg (May 4, 2009)

RollWithEm said:


> I think I'm going to start referring to Drummond as Hasheem Thabeet Jr until he proves me wrong.


Eh, two big differences. Drummond actually has an NBA body and is able to finish around the rim. Thabeet was never able to handle players 6'6" or above with any physical strength who bodied him, and even at his height was never able to finish particularly well close to the basket. A more athletic Kwame Brown is a better comparison, assuming you think he's going to be a bust(I'm undecided).


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## LA68 (Apr 3, 2004)

MKG reminds me so much of Ed O'Bannon. Great character guy, winner in college, leadership capabilities, coaches dream. 

One small thing: He can't shoot the ball ! They compare him to Gerald Wallace who also can't shoot the ball. You have to wonder how a person can go from youth leagues all the way to NBA and never learn to shoot. All it takes is a lot of practice. 

Will he be another Sefolosha ? That's not worth a lottery pick IMO


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## E.H. Munro (Jun 22, 2004)

The other difference between Gilchrist and O'Bannon is that his knees aren't held together by duct tape and baling wire. Easy Ed's athleticism was lost to injury by the time he reached the NBA. Gilchrist is popular because GMs see a 0% chance of him busting. Every other guy not named Davis carries at least some risk (though I think the risk is also minimal in Robinson's case).


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## Tom (Jul 15, 2002)

AD is an average to strong NBA player...Kenyon or pervis ellison.

Jeremy Lamb is one of my faves.

I hate to say it but Austin will be a great player. Better than that shooting guard for Golden State.


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## RollWithEm (Jul 16, 2002)

Tom said:


> AD is an average to strong NBA player...Kenyon or pervis ellison.
> 
> Jeremy Lamb is one of my faves.
> 
> I hate to say it but Austin will be a great player. Better than that shooting guard for Golden State.


I think you have underrated Davis, overrated Lamb, and Rivers... you might be right about him.


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## Tom (Jul 15, 2002)

Davis is just too lanky in my eyes and i like Lamb's size and natural scoring ability.

Also, there is no reason to take Meyers. What does he offer? He looked weak and showed not NBA game.


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## c_dog (Sep 15, 2002)

drummon is going to bust. i don't understand what people see in him other than his size. and yeah he has good size but this guy is more out of shape than cousins was in college. and unlike cousins he has ZERO basketball instinct. get that? ZERO. And he's a soft finisher. With his size advantage he could have just gone up and dunk the ball every time he's around the basket but he has a tendency to shoot awkward fadeway baby hook/floater/i-don't-know-what-the-****-to-call-it-it's-so-awkward


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

I see a lot in this draft, but Drummond really stands out. We've see a white stiff (or close enough like Patrick O'Bryant) just about every year, but Drummond is getting "best body since Dwight Howard" hype. To me he seems like a much less motivated Andrew Bynum, and I'm not even sure I'd be thrilled with the already questionably motivated Andrew Bynum.

Royce White is a good player, but people are getting obsessed by his redemption story and not realizing that he's a tweener that resembles a less active Marcus Fizer. Can't shoot, probably too small to post up effectively in the NBA, not a ball handler, not a passer. Not sure what he does at this level to be honest. Oh, and he's also got mental problems. Antoine Walker at BEST.

And I'm completely skeptical of Lillard. I feel like I hear about these guys a lot more if they're good. Stuckey wasn't a stranger, but this Lillard guy is out of nowhere.

I don't see it with Henson either. Too much strength is needed to play on the block in the NBA and his body isn't capable of adding it.


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## NzaMcDza (Jun 10, 2012)

I went with Davis, simply because of the hype, it will be hard for him to live up to the huge expectations. Nowhere near as much is expected of their picks so harder to call them busts.


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## Mrs. Thang (Apr 14, 2011)

I feel like the publice opinion of Andre Drummond has gotten so overwhelmingly negative that it's going to be very easy for him to exceed expectations. He really isn't that bad, and he's still only 18. Worst case scenario he is Derrick Favors.

Of the players listed, I think Jeremy Lamb and Austin Rivers are clearly the worst. I wouldn't take either in the top 20.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

Worst case? Give me a ****ing break. The opinion on Favors was bad too, but he still went #3. Drummond could be as bad as the Kandiman.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

With all this hating on Drummond I would still be surprised if he drops out of the top 5. I don't care how high the risk is, there is too much potential here for teams to not take that chance. If Drummond ends up reaching 50-60% of his potential he's already better than Barnes/Beal/MKG can ever be.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

Ridiculous.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

look, if Drummond even reaches 50% of his potential I wouldn't want to be the GM that passed him up because his team just had to have Bradley Beal or MKG. Everyone knows that he is high risk but in this draft where there aren't that many sure thing players it's an ideal year to take a risk on someone like Drummond.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

For 50% of his potential to be that good his potential is like 35/20/8.

And for all the talk about "GMs could get fired for not drafting him" that never happens. You get fired for picking a bust. If someone gets picked later and you still got a starter at a bigger position of need, no one is going to blame you.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

Nimreitz said:


> For 50% of his potential to be that good his potential is like 35/20/8.
> 
> And for all the talk about "GMs could get fired for not drafting him" that never happens. You get fired for picking a bust. If someone gets picked later and you still got a starter at a bigger position of need, no one is going to blame you.


You're looking at things solely from stats, that's not what I'm talking about. His potential is an all-star caliber center that contributes both on offense and defense ala Dwight Howard. 50% of that would be either Tyson Chandler or Marcus Camby or Brook Lopez - i.e. decent starting center with serious flaws to their games. For a #5 pick I would take that in this draft knowing that theres a chance that he'll be a lot better than just 50% of his potential.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

I actually don't see him as being built of the fast twitch muscle that you do. He looks plodding to me, rarely has soaring blocks or dunks. Good body, but slow moving; he'll make his hay in the league by developing post moves. Dwight Howard is a ridiculous comparison, if he's anyone he's Bynum, but as I've said before I don't even think he can get there. Eddy Curry might be even more apt because he's not a great rebounder, but he doesn't have his touch around the rim either IMO. And 29% FT shooting, seriously? What good is any player that you can't keep on the court?


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

Nimreitz said:


> I actually don't see him as being built of the fast twitch muscle that you do. He looks plodding to me, rarely has soaring blocks or dunks. Good body, but slow moving; he'll make his hay in the league by developing post moves. Dwight Howard is a ridiculous comparison, if he's anyone he's Bynum, but as I've said before I don't even think he can get there. Eddy Curry might be even more apt because he's not a great rebounder, but he doesn't have his touch around the rim either IMO. And 29% FT shooting, seriously? What good is any player that you can't keep on the court?


Yeah, for a *18 year old*. At the same age Drummond is stronger than Dwight was if you go by combine results. Dwight has him beat on max vert whereas Drummond has Dwight beat on no-step vert. If you want to criticize him physically you can just stop now because there is nothing to criticize.

The guy is extremely raw yes, but his potential is off the charts. Again, you need to understand what I'm saying here. I might not pick Drummond in the top 3 but after that I would seriously consider whether my team really needs someone like Harrison Barnes when theres someone like Drummond available.


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## Mrs. Thang (Apr 14, 2011)

The point is, he's going to play center and he's going to rebound and block shots. How big of a bust can a 7 footer who rebounds and blocks shots be? Expecially if he goes 6 or 7. I don't see the downside. He doesn't have to be a star to be a good draft pick.


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## girllovesthegame (Nov 3, 2005)

Tom said:


> *Davis is just too lanky in my eyes* and i like Lamb's size and natural scoring ability.
> 
> Also, there is no reason to take Meyers. What does he offer? He looked weak and showed not NBA game.


Yeah, kind of like how lanky KG and Durant were when they came into the league.


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## c_dog (Sep 15, 2002)

Mrs. Thang said:


> The point is, he's going to play center and he's going to rebound and block shots. How big of a bust can a 7 footer who rebounds and blocks shots be? Expecially if he goes 6 or 7. I don't see the downside. He doesn't have to be a star to be a good draft pick.


that's what they say about 100% of the 7 footers who end up busting it up big time anyway. how many athletic bigs have bust it up in recent years? too many...

and how is he going to rebound and block shots when he has no basketball instincts? everybody knows his instincts are terrible.


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## Porn Player (Apr 24, 2003)

Dion Waiters. 

Kid is going to be a bust.


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## Mrs. Thang (Apr 14, 2011)

c_dog said:


> that's what they say about 100% of the 7 footers who end up busting it up big time anyway. how many athletic bigs have bust it up in recent years? too many...
> 
> and how is he going to rebound and block shots when he has no basketball instincts? everybody knows his instincts are terrible.


Drummond isn't just an "athletic big". He's the most athletic and the biggest big. I don't think he's going to be a superstar, but he is definately going to play. I would be weary about him at #2 or #3, but people are talking about him falling out of the top 5. At that point he is way oversold. His basketball instincts are fine. He doesn't have the most natural feel for the game with the ball in his hands, but nothing about that means he can't block shots. His instincts aren't any worse than players like Favors and Deandre Jordan. He's a steal anywhere after the 5th pick.


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## R-Star (Jun 13, 2002)

girllovesthegame said:


> Yeah, kind of like how lanky KG and Durant were when they came into the league.


And Jon Bender....


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

Mrs. Thang said:


> The point is, he's going to play center and he's going to rebound and block shots. How big of a bust can a 7 footer who rebounds and blocks shots be? Expecially if he goes 6 or 7. I don't see the downside. He doesn't have to be a star to be a good draft pick.


I don't know, what do you think about Thabeet?

I don't see him having the fast twitch muscle that allows a player to repeatedly jump and that actually matters in the NBA if you want to block shots. He's not Dwight, he's not KG, I don't even think he's Thabeet honestly. It's also arguable if he can rebound or block shots. 9.9 Block%, 14.2 OR%, 15.6 DR%. The kenpom comparisons are: Solomon Alabi 09, Trevor Booker 07, Robin Lopez 07, Jackie Carmichael 10, Tarik Black 11. Thabeet was a significantly better blocker and defensive rebounder; ditto for Oden, ditto for Davis (Oden is actually his closest statistical comparison). If you want to give me the name of a big man, I'll let you know how his rates stack up. But Thabeet rebounded and blocked shots better than Drummond AS A FRESHMAN. Thabeet was bad after his junior year, he was atrocious and raw as a freshman.


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## c_dog (Sep 15, 2002)

Mrs. Thang said:


> Drummond isn't just an "athletic big". He's the most athletic and the biggest big. I don't think he's going to be a superstar, but he is definately going to play. I would be weary about him at #2 or #3, but people are talking about him falling out of the top 5. At that point he is way oversold. His basketball instincts are fine. He doesn't have the most natural feel for the game with the ball in his hands, but nothing about that means he can't block shots. His instincts aren't any worse than players like Favors and Deandre Jordan. He's a steal anywhere after the 5th pick.


man you don't know what instincts mean do you. all the great shot blockers, rebounders, have great instincts. they can sense when a player is shooting for real and they can anticipate where the rebound is going to go. drummond clear doesn't have that. and he is a weak finisher. many times you expect him to finish at the rim with strong dunks but he instead throws up an awkward fading floater thing.


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## Tom (Jul 15, 2002)

girllovesthegame said:


> Yeah, kind of like how lanky KG and Durant were when they came into the league.


They are different players...You all can laugh at me later I guess. I worry he might get hurt with such a huge growth spurt as well. How long do you wait and what is good enough for him. Nobody says that.


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## Nimreitz (May 13, 2003)

I was hard on Drummond and it looks like he is going to be very good. What's weird is that his defensive rebounding rate last year at UConn was 15.6%, but in the NBA it is 26.7%. That is ridiculous. He's gone from being a terrible rebounder, to a decent one (for his position) in one year. I'm curious what accounts for that. He's also blocking shots at a high rate despite not being an elite college shot blocker... technically his block % was higher in college, but not where elite shot blockers (Davis/Noel/Oden) are. Motivation was trotted out as an explanation during the draft, so it will be interesting to follow his career.


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