# Predraft Analysis: Portland Trail Blazers



## cpawfan (Jun 20, 2004)

*Portland Trail Blazers 2007 Draft Picks*

*Round 1:* Their own pick which is the first pick in the draft

*Round 2:* Their own pick #37 plus 3 additional picks. Pick #42 is from Indiana as part of the James White trade. Pick #52 is from the Raptors to finally complete the Chris Dudley trade from 1997 _(the pick was top 50 protected through 2012)_. Pick #53 is from the Bulls to complete the LaMarcus Aldridge trade from 2006. _(this pick would have gone to the Spurs if it had been 54-60 because of a trade of Erick Barkley in 2002 and Portland would have received it in 2008)_

*Analyzing the team*
1) What do you see as the team's strengths and weaknesses?

2) What does the team need to add through the draft?

3) Based upon the team's needs, who would select for the team with each of the picks, 1, 37, 52 & 53? 

4) How active do you see the Blazers being in trades considering that they have Zach Randolph and they tried to move him at the trading deadline?


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Blazers need to trade those 2nd round picks, unless they simply draft Euros that have no intention of coming over. Too many guaranteed contracts.

Here is what I would do if I were Portland. 

1. Take Greg Oden (no-brainer).

2. Call Jerry West and Michael Heisley and see if they would want Zach Randolph to pair with Gasol. Randolph is a bruiser on offense and if nothing else the Grizz would have someone who can score in the paint. Not to mention he always seems to dominate the Grizz. It would expedite the rebuilding the process.

Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal and the #31 for Zach Randolph and the #37. 

3. Let the other teams keep their 2nd round picks and roll them back over for another year.

4. Re-sign Ime Udoka and let Travis Outlaw walk in FA. The Blazers still have Martell Webster, so they have to make a decision on one of those two guys. Roy is going nowhere, so one of those two is out. It says here that Outlaw is.

My roster looks like this:

C - Greg Oden/Joel Pryzbilla
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge/Raef Lafrentz
SF - Mike Miller/Martell Webster/Brian Cardinal
SG - Brandon Roy/Ime Udoka/Fred Jones
PG - Jarrett Jack/Sergio Rodriguez/Dan Dickau

If you look at that, the Blazers through the draft have 5 of their 6 best players all on their rookie contracts which is amazing (Roy, Oden, Aldridge, Jack, Rodriguez). A good mix of veterans in Lafrentz, Udoka, Jones and Miller. That's a playoff team in my mind. To me taking a guy like Conley or trying to get a pick to take him is stupid because he is not a better player than Jack is right now, nor is he ready to start for an NBA team right now, so even though you have a young nucleus, you already have a guy who is taking a long time in developing in (Webster). 

If Pritchard puts this team together, they will more than likely be a playoff team in 07-08 (Roy is going to challenge for an all-star appearance playing with Oden). To me, their first year as a title contender would be 09-10 (Oden's third year). Hope it happens.


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

Strength - Low post offense, good PG prospects, have a great SG in Roy, great PF prospect in LMA
Weakness - Missing an impact SF, Perimeter defense, Dominant Center, Vet experience

#1 should be Oden. It solves the Center issue, it anchors the deffense and if offers low post presence. Aldridge, Roy and Sergio are locks to stay. Unless something wonderful can be gained by trading Jack - he should stay as well. Between JJ and Sergio the Blazers will have a fantastic PG in the future.

Zach is an interesting question - do you keep him and let Oden/Aldridge take their time and become great interior offense or do you trade him for an impact 3?

What to do with the extra picks? My guess - they will be a part of a package that will get Portland a starting SF or a pick that will allow them to get it. I can see Portland trying to package the picks with Randolph, Webster or S&T of Outlaw to get Lewis, Jefferson or a high pick that will allow them to draft a good 3 prospect like Brewer or Yi.

If Yi falls to the 5 / 9 positions - I can see KP doing a lot to get him - a good investment with a low risk selection of Oden and a high risk/high reward for Yi.


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## belgian (Feb 21, 2004)

Draftexpress has Trail Brazers taken Durant at #1 !!!


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

Here's a crazy scenario...

Trade the #1 pick (gasp!) to Seattle for the #2 pick and Nick Collison.

Re-sign Udoka and say goodbye to Outlaw. With the 37th pick take a flyer on Aaron Gray or Kyle Visser. Let the other picks roll for another year.

The resulting lineup looks something like...

C - LaMarcus Aldridge/Joel Pryzbilla/Aaron Gray
PF - Zach Randolph/Nick Collison/Raef Lafrentz
SF - Kevin Durant/Martell Webster
SG - Brandon Roy/Ime Udoka/Fred Jones
PG - Jarrett Jack/Sergio Rodriguez/Dan Dickau

Sacrilege, I know, and it'll probably never happen. But Portland gets a projected McGrady-like star to pair with Roy on the perimeter--could be the best wing tandem in the league within 2 years. There are plenty of savvy minds who think Durant's ceiling is higher than Oden's, and Collison is nice insurance in the paint. The Blazers have plenty of different options for a rotation of bigs, and Randolph will benefit hugely from Durant's ability to stretch the floor. The market for Randolph will be much softer than his stats from last season might suggest, and unless he's just a chemistry-killer, Portland may as well hold onto him until at least mid-season.

Having said all this, I know the conventional wisdom is you draft the elite big before the elite wing, so I assume Portland can't afford to do anything but follow the rule of thumb. But I think this is arguably an Olajuwon/Jordan kind of decision to make--there's hardly a bad choice to make. And Portland's options look better to my mind if they opt for Durant while adding some quality depth down low.


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

^Yes please.


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

Strengths to me are these
1. Shooting Guard. Brandon Roy turned out to be special, and Martell Webster allows the team a decent back up that still has a load of potential

2. Power Forward. And I am not talking about Randolph.....although 23/10 is impressive. LaMarcus Aldridge started after the all-star break and put up 16/9 or something like that. We also have Travis Outlaw (RFA) who seemed to be a nice player at the 4.

Point Guard. In good shape with steady if unspectacular Jarrett Jack. His back up is spectacular if unsteady Sergio Rodriguez, and Brandon Roy plays the point quite a bit

Needs through the draft:

SF
C

I would select Oden I think. With he and Aldridge on the front line we have basicaly recreated the Spurs version of the twin towers. Only our two players will play together for the next 10-12 years. As for the second round picks, I would probably go Euro with some and include a couple in buying late first round picks with the others.

I think the Blazers will be extremely active. GM Kevin Pritchard has already said he wants to set the lottery world on fire again, but that was before we got the first pick. Expect Randolph to be traded, and possibly Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster and Joel Przybilla. Maybe even a sign and trade with Travis Outlaw. It will be difficult, but our GM has said one of the top priorities is getting a high end SF. Unless they take Durant, look for them to target Lewis.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

Chan said:


> ^Yes please.


No doubt Seattle would prefer to center their franchise around Oden, if they can make it worth Portland's while. Oden's presence might even convince Lewis to stick around, which would mean that the Sonics could be a Ridnour-on-Super-Soldier-Serum away from making serious noise in the West. I wonder if Chauncy Billups has a secret soft spot for the Puget Sound area...?


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

jericho said:


> Here's a crazy scenario...
> 
> Trade the #1 pick (gasp!) to Seattle for the #2 pick and Nick Collison.
> 
> ...



I think Portland would ask for more from Seattle. I'm thinking something along the lines of making them take Darius Miles' contract off their hands. Even then I doubt they would make that trade


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## NeoSamurai (Jan 16, 2003)

jericho said:


> Here's a crazy scenario...
> 
> Trade the #1 pick (gasp!) to Seattle for the #2 pick and Nick Collison.
> 
> ...


i actually was thinking about this: with the team set up the way it is, the Blazers could look to employ a free flowing offense akin to the Suns. But the exception would be that the Blazers would have the benefit of a half-court post player in Zach which the Suns dont necessarily have on their squad. 

PG: Jack/Rodriguez
SG: Roy/Webster
SF: Udoka or Outlaw/KD
PF: Randolph/Lafrenz
C: Przybilla/Aldridge

I'd consider KD coming off the bench and being my 6th man. Allow him to figure things out on offense and give him as many touches as possible. If hes out on the court with the first line, amongst himself, Roy and Randolph, i dont know how many scoring opportunities he'd get. By having him coming off the bench and being the key 2nd unit player, it allows him to be the focal point on offense, gives him more opportunities to score, and increases the likelihood that he'll be the best player on the court, increasing his confidence and developing his offensive game...

as well, with the 2nd unit as i have it there, that team can look to run and score with a pass first PG, great perimeter shooting SG and PF, an athletic C, and KD...


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

cpawfan said:


> 1) What do you see as the team's strengths and weaknesses?


The team's strengths are up front, in Aldridge, Randolph and Przybilla and in the backcourt, with Roy, Rodriguez and Jack.

Their major weakness is at small forward, where previous "upside" picks in Outlaw and Webster have so far been disappointing. They have a decent veteran stopgap in Ime Udoka, but I don't think anyone would be satisfied with Udoka as the long-term solution.



> 2) What does the team need to add through the draft?


Well, my draft philosophy is that the draft is not about need, but about getting the best talent you can. You can always use trades and free agent signings to address need, but if you reach in the draft, you're simply costing your team talent.

So Portland needs to take the best players available where they pick. At #1, that seems to be pretty conclusively Greg Oden. Their second round picks are a lot more uncertain...a good move might be to package them to try to move up to a late first-round pick, and then take the best player available there. If not, a scattering of overseas prospects, San Antonio-style, would be a good option.



> 3) Based upon the team's needs, who would select for the team with each of the picks, 1, 37, 52 & 53?


Again, going BPA (best player available), I'd select Greg Oden with the #1 pick (even though Durant better fills "need'). As for the second-round picks, since I don't know anything about the European talents available then, I really can't comment.

The Blazers certainly can't select college players with all those picks--they don't have the roster room for five players out of the draft. They need to package them or draft players who they can stash overseas for a while. 



> 4) How active do you see the Blazers being in trades considering that they have Zach Randolph and they tried to move him at the trading deadline?


I think Randolph will be proactively offered around the league, looking for a young, established small forward in return. For now, trading Randolph for a signed-and-traded Rashard Lewis seems to make the most sense for both teams.

If Seattle takes Durant (as they will), Durant and Lewis will duplicate each other too much. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Seattle would want to pay a huge deal to Lewis. However, Randolph gives them something they don't have: a post scorer who draws double-teams and rebounds well. That will be invaluable to Ray Allen and Kevin Durant.

Obviously, it makes sense for Portland. While Randolph could fit with Oden (Oden cleaning up for Randolph's defensive shortcomings as Sheed once did), this hastens the start of the Oden/Aldridge era and gives Portland what they need most: a dead-eye shooter at the small forward position.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

mediocre man said:


> I think Portland would ask for more from Seattle. I'm thinking something along the lines of making them take Darius Miles' contract off their hands. Even then I doubt they would make that trade


That would work financially if Collison was upgraded to Wilcox. 

So: Portland sends #1 pick and Darius Miles to Seattle for #2 pick and Chris Wilcox. 

Obviously, Portland doesn't entertain any of this unless they're secretly smitten with Durant even more than they are with Oden. Seems unlikely, but...Portland brass appear to be keeping their options open, which is rather curious. Since they're sitting at the top of the draft flowchart, they stand to gain very little by being coy at this point.

Either they're just trying to soften the blow to Randolph, who will then know for sure that his days are numbered and he'll eventually be shipped off to Siberia for a bag of Doritos. Or, they're inviting trade feelers to actually determine their trade options. I can't imagine that they'd consider trading out of the top 2. The only players they'd entertain such a notion for (e.g., Lebron, Wade, Nowitzki) are unlikely to be available to them. Therefore, Seattle is the only real prospect for a trading partner.


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## yuyuza1 (May 24, 2006)

mediocre man said:


> I think Portland would ask for more from Seattle. I'm thinking something along the lines of making them take Darius Miles' contract off their hands. Even then I doubt they would make that trade



Missing out on one of the best center prospects to get rid of a cancer like Darius? Please.


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## Dee-Zy (Jan 12, 2006)

trade down to #2 and take Durant.


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## Spoolie Gee (Feb 3, 2005)

jericho said:


> Here's a crazy scenario...
> 
> Trade the #1 pick (gasp!) to Seattle for the #2 pick and Nick Collison


Not nearly enough for Portland. It'd have to be more like #2 pick, 2008 unrestricted first round pick, Wilcox and one of the center projects for #1 and Miles. And I doubt Seattle would do that.


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## pr0wler (Jun 8, 2003)

I wouldn't mind having Durant anyway. He's better looking, more marketable, and will make the Seattle offense exciting. With Allen, Lewis, and Durant on the court we're a rich man's Phoenix Suns on offense. Sure, we'll be one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history but you're gonna have to put up over 110 PPG to stop us...


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

The most important factor the could affect the draft for Seattle is where Lewis is going. If we could work out a trade with Indiana for O'Neal (and take on Tinsley's contract, which is a likely sacrifice to get him), we could have Tinsley/Allen/Durant/O'Neal/Swift. If Lewis stays, and #1 for #2 and Collison, we'd go Ridnour/Allen/Lewis/Wilcox/Oden. I would rather have the team with O'Neal.

But if the O'Neal deal happened, I would **** and jizz my pants at the same time.


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## SeaNet (Nov 18, 2004)

Draft Oden, and w/ LaMarcus you're looking at the kind of tandem roaming the paint on both ends of the court that can bring you a championship. Then start working on dumping your 2 cancers, Miles and Randolph. The team will be set for the future at SG, C and PF. I don't know how good Jack might be able to be at PG, but I'd definitely be looking to bring in veteran leadership at SF and PG. Ideally tough defenders who can hit an open J.


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## Japers (May 24, 2007)

*Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

.. The PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS select... 


ah, what a wonderful day it will be. 

Or will it? 

Like many of you, I enjoy playing armchair GM from time to time. 
I got to thinking, how will Greg Oden improve our team? 
What can Durant bring to the table? 

After much consideration, I came to this conclusion... 



TRADE THE PICK! 


Before you go looking to find me and strangle me with your Ohio State jersey, think it thru. 

Don't call me crazy. A friend of mine, let's call him Brandon, was 100% convinced that last year it was Adam Morrison or nothing. 
He claimed Morison was the answer to all of the Blazers woes. 
The trade and selections, while mind boggling to most fans at the time, have turned fruitful earlier than expected. Rookie of the year included. 

To be honest, I'm just not sold on Oden. 
I think he's good, but he dominated in a not-so-strong division. And got run out of the gym during the finals. 
Big men tend to look awesome in the college game. 
Yes, Andrew Bogut is only a couple of years in. But he's not the difference maker the Bucks thought he was going to be. 


Portlands biggest hurdle right now is unloading Zach Randolph. 
Period. 
It's something they tried very hard to do last off season but were unable to accomplish. 
Not only is Zach a salary burden, (among the biggest in the entire NBA) but his off court antics are too sketchy too often. 
A club like the Jazz, for example, wouldn't take him even if Portland picked up the rest of his contract. Nor would the Pacers who just got thru the Artest years, and currently wrestle with the Jackson saga. 

Tie Randolph to the number one pick and deal it to a desperate team with a fairly high draft pick. 


Zach and the pick to MEMPHIS for Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick and the #4 pick? 

Zach and the pick to CHICAGO for Luol Dang, Andres Nocioni and the #9 pick? 


Zach and the pick to MILWAUKEE for Michael Redd, a player and the #6 pick? 

Zach and the pick to NEW YORK for .... Ha ha just kidding! 



I want to hear your feelings on the matter. 
Are you the guy with Morrison-itis? Pardon, Oden-itis. 
Or are you looking to fill our floor in the same was Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio fill theirs? 


Sound off! I want to hear from you!


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

No.

GM Kevin Pritchard agrees with me as well. He says there is no way he will trade the pick, and the only way he would even consider a trade is if it includes 3 all-star players all in their early 20's....and then probably no


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*



Japers said:


> Don't call me crazy. A friend of mine, let's call him Brandon, was 100% convinced that last year it was Adam Morrison or nothing.
> He claimed Morison was the answer to all of the Blazers woes.
> The trade and selections, while mind boggling to most fans at the time, have turned fruitful earlier than expected. Rookie of the year included.


No offense, but I think this is an awful argument. Who cares if your friend thought Morrison was "the answer to all the Blazers woes?" Many of us thought Morrison was going to be crap in the NBA, and Morrison was never considered a super-prospect. He was considered a very flawed prospect in a draft of flawed prospects.

Oden is considered by the entire basketball establishment to be the best big man since Duncan, and in the same class of prospect as Duncan, Shaq and Ewing.

In other words, the fact that your friend was incorrectly infatuated with Morrison has no relevance to whether Portland should trade the rights to one of the great prospects ever.

Also, Randolph has never been a cancer, a player who's mere presence makes the team worse. He's a very productive player who has clear flaws (passing and defense). Giving him away for nothing would be absurd enough, but to give away the top pick just to dump Randolph is insanity.

Either Portland will find a team that needs a 24/10 player enough to live with his flaws (and pot-smoking) and give back a player of value, or Portland will hold onto him and let him be productive alongside Oden.

I'd rather trade him for some value, but if the right deal isn't out there, I'd keep him. The John Nash era of giving away talent is over.


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

SeaNet said:


> Draft Oden, and w/ LaMarcus you're looking at the kind of tandem roaming the paint on both ends of the court that can bring you a championship. Then start working on dumping your 2 cancers, Miles and Randolph. The team will be set for the future at SG, C and PF. I don't know how good Jack might be able to be at PG, but I'd definitely be looking to bring in veteran leadership at SF and PG. Ideally tough defenders who can hit an open J.




Randolph to Philly for Mller and Korver works. Then trade Jack to Atlanta for Childress


If not somehow try to get Lewis from Seattle in a sign and trade. Probably have to be a 3 team deal. About Miles....Most likely the team will be able to use a medical retirement on him and not have to count his salary against them

Miller
Roy
Childress
Aldridge
Oden

Rodriguez
Jones
Webster
Outlaw
Przybilla

That's a pretty decent rotation


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## bruno34115 (Apr 14, 2003)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

Horrible, horrible idea.


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## sabas4mvp (Sep 23, 2002)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

Pritchard said the only way he will trade it is if Jordan comes back and is in his prime.


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## Premier (Oct 30, 2003)

I don't think Seattle would draft Oden with the first pick. The team is looking for a player that can replace Rashard Lewis, who will very likely exercise his player option this year. They have drafted three centers and four big men overall in the past four years in Collison, Swift, Petro, and Sene. They have Chris Wilcox at a considerable contract. They need scoring. Most importantly, Durant is marketing gold and would make the Sonics wealthier.

So, the Trailblazers could trade down to number two [like Houston was considering in the Yao Ming - Jay Williams draft] and still end up with Oden because I think Seattle is not going to pass on Durant.


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## Tobias (Aug 5, 2002)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

Horrible is an understatement. They won the top pick in this draft, they might as well have invented a machine that prints money. The only was they do a trade is a "Webber-Penny" type trade. And even then. 

Durant-pushers at least have sound logic in why Durant is superior to Oden (I don't buy it, but I see where theyre coming from at least.)

You are saying to forego either franchise player in favor of Redd + one of the lesser PFs (or maybe Yi)?? Borderline insane. If Oden doesn't make sense for the Blazers, then so does any of the lesser PFs. Deng and Nocioni and 9 would address some needs for Portland, but to sacrifice Oden or Durant for that and to get rid of Zach? Hex no, son. Portland would still be a cellar dweller and would be quite possibly the dumbest FO in the league. Not gonna happen in a BILLION years.


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

I'd probably trade the pick for a Dwight Howard, maybe Lebron. The latter isnt happening, dont know about the former.


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## SeaNet (Nov 18, 2004)

Premier said:


> I don't think Seattle would draft Oden with the first pick. The team is looking for a player that can replace Rashard Lewis, who will very likely exercise his player option this year. They have drafted three centers and four big men overall in the past four years in Collison, Swift, Petro, and Sene. They have Chris Wilcox at a considerable contract. They need scoring. Most importantly, Durant is marketing gold and would make the Sonics wealthier.
> 
> So, the Trailblazers could trade down to number two [like Houston was considering in the Yao Ming - Jay Williams draft] and still end up with Oden because I think Seattle is not going to pass on Durant.


I think just about everything you said in here is wrong. The reason they are in the position they are in the draft is because their centers and PFs are Swift, Petro, Sene, Collison and Wilcox. Those guys have not gotten it done, and the only one that I feel confident about being a regular contributor is Collison. Swift, I am hopeful for, but he's coming off a major injury and has never done anything. Sene did nothing last year. Petro is soft. And Wilcox is a finesse player who dunks hard. Their PFs and Cs suck major ***.

Of course, they have to take Durant at #2 if that's who is there, but the last thing this team needs is scoring. THey can already fill it up. What they need is toughness and defense. The past two years they have literally been the worst defensive team in the history of the NBA (this is not an exaggeration: 2 years ago, I believe they gave up the most points per 100 possessions in the history if the NBA).

If Oden is there, Seattle has to pounce on him. And if they get Durant, they need to start dealing to get some defenders on the roster ASAP.


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## number1pick (May 24, 2007)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

If they draft Oden they are going to need to trade Randolph, as he seems to be most effective with his back to the basket similar to what Oden will be doing. They would then use Aldridge and have him be more of a face-up player when Oden is on the floor and could use him at center when Oden goes to the bench. Honestly the trade that makes the most sense is a trade with Seattle for Lewis, it would fill the Blazers void at SF and Seattle would get a PF which would allow them to draft Durant and play him at SF. Both teams win although Randolph can be a headcase so Seattle may be reluctant to agree.


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## compsciguy78 (Dec 16, 2002)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

I love when people start these threads :lol:

Blazers might have had the luckiest day in franchise history. There is no way they are trading this pick.


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## Foulzilla (Jan 11, 2005)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

Jon Barry? Is that you?


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## SeaNet (Nov 18, 2004)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

They should trade the pick to the Nets. You can have our whole roster.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

Premier said:


> I don't think Seattle would draft Oden with the first pick. The team is looking for a player that can replace Rashard Lewis, who will very likely exercise his player option this year. They have drafted three centers and four big men overall in the past four years in Collison, Swift, Petro, and Sene. They have Chris Wilcox at a considerable contract. They need scoring.


If they drafted Oden and re-signed Lewis, they'd have an incredible inside-outside nucleus. They've drafted four big men in the past four years because none have shown themselves to be keepers or impactful. Their biggest need is defense and an inside offensive presence. Oden gives them both and almost instantly makes Lewis and Allen more potent.

I think the Sonics would jump all over Oden. Letting Lewis go and drafting Durant would upgrade them, but not nearly as much.


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## bruno34115 (Apr 14, 2003)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*



Foulzilla said:


> Jon Barry? Is that you?


:lol:


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## Pimped Out (May 4, 2005)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*

Of course the blazers should keep the pick. Oden and Randolph will be a great tandem for years to come. They will have to unload LaMarcus though, but the Rockets could take care of that by giving up some future draft picks and someone to fill in the salary


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## yuyuza1 (May 24, 2006)

*Re: Should the Blazers Trade the #1 Pick?*



Pimped Out said:


> Of course the blazers should keep the pick. Oden and Randolph will be a great tandem for years to come. They will have to unload LaMarcus though, but the Rockets could take care of that by giving up some future draft picks and someone to fill in the salary



Um..no. LaMarcus is going nowhere. Oden and Aldridge are the next twin towers. Randolph, on the other hand, already has one leg out the door.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

Honestly, I think there's some wishful thinking in this thread. 

1) Allen, Lewis and Durant together on the court don't make for a rich man's Suns. The Suns are the Suns mainly because they have a crafty and gritty pass-first floor general who excels in the run-and-gun, stop-and-pop style of play. Few players in the league fit that description. Billups can do it, up to a point, and certainly Paul. Deron Williams has shown signs of it. 

Kidd certainly, but he can't consistently help to stretch the defense. The other way to average 110 ppg is have a whole stable of players who can run and pass reasonably well for their positions, not to mention shoot and finish. The Moe Nuggets, for example, never had even an average PG, but they had the full complement of players who could fly--and fly well enough to get away with playing small ball. (Those Nuggets, by the way, were never contenders.) I'm not sure that I buy either Lewis or Durant as a PF in today's NBA, and Allen is the only one who comes to mind who's a particularly good playmaker outside of the PGs.

So I think Durant-Lewis-Allen buys you an avalanche of high percentage 3s, with some question marks remaining at other positions.

2) It's unlikely that picking up Tinsley in a trade turns out to be an upgrade for Seattle at PG. Jamaal just doesn't stay healthy enough to stay on the court. I don't see any inclination that that's going to change. 

3) No one has any business comparing Oden-Aldridge to Robinson-Duncan, or Sampson-Olajwon for that matter. Aldridge has shown some nice promise. He wasn't an all-star coming out of the starting gate, and very likely won't be one for the foreseeable future. Randolph, for all his warts, is more of an impact player at this point.

4) I'm not convinced that having Collison, Petro, Swift, Sene, and Wilcox on board is sufficient reason not to draft Oden--at least, if one subscribes to the common wisdom that he's the best big man to enter the league since Duncan (or at worst since Yao). Only one or two of Seattle's bigs could even be considered average starters at best, at this point. Some of them may have potential, but added together they don't equal an Oden.

5) I seriously doubt Philly would be interested in moving Andre Miller, who turned out to be more of a difference-maker for them than Allen-freaking-Iverson, for Randolph. Zach may be a top 5 low post scorer, and he'll end up somewhere, but the market for him right now is lower than his statistical accomplishments would suggest.

I'm done sounding off for now...except that I have no interest in seeing Chan soil himself in multiple ways simultaneously. Let's keep Jermaine far from Portland...


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## Mr. Hobbes (Jul 1, 2005)

jericho said:


> Honestly, I think there's some wishful thinking in this thread.
> 
> 1) Allen, Lewis and Durant together on the court don't make for a rich man's Suns. The Suns are the Suns mainly because they have a crafty and gritty pass-first floor general who excels in the run-and-gun, stop-and-pop style of play. Few players in the league fit that description. Billups can do it, up to a point, and certainly Paul. Deron Williams has shown signs of it.
> 
> ...


What? I meant Seattle. You don't think Tinsley/Allen/Durant/O'Neal/Swift is a good starting lineup?


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

Chan said:


> What? I meant Seattle. You don't think Tinsley/Allen/Durant/O'Neal/Swift is a good starting lineup?


I think it's a great starting lineup, at least on paper. Who knows what Swift can deliver, but if the answer is "not much," there are plenty of big bodies for Seattle to platoon onto the floor to take up whatever minutes O'Neal isn't playing. My second point above was just that it seems pretty unlikely that Tinsley will stay healthy long enough to be the real starter. Also, the raves about him in his pink of health seemed more based on flashes of potential. It wasn't like he ever put together a great season. Just some good stretches. Even healthy, is he all that much better than Ridnour?


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## The Krakken (Jul 17, 2002)

Portland is stuck with Zbo, like it or not. His contract is bloated and will only get worse, culminating in a 17 million dollar albatross around someone's neck in 4 years (one year after roy and aldridge can be extended, and right around the time Oden can be extended). 

The only teams I think are stupid enough to invest so much money in a guy who has proven to be a cancer off and on the court, are NY, and Minnesota. And it would require Minny giving up KG for it to work (that ain't happening). If I were Pritchard, I'd be looking to fleece NY, and I'd be on the phone with Zeke right now.


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

The Krakken said:


> Portland is stuck with Zbo, like it or not. His contract is bloated and will only get worse, culminating in a 17 million dollar albatross around someone's neck in 4 years (one year after roy and aldridge can be extended, and right around the time Oden can be extended).
> 
> The only teams I think are stupid enough to invest so much money in a guy who has proven to be a cancer off and on the court, are NY, and Minnesota. And it would require Minny giving up KG for it to work (that ain't happening). If I were Pritchard, I'd be looking to fleece NY, and I'd be on the phone with Zeke right now.




I think you're way off base about being stuck with Randolph. I don't think there is any way Portland will get equal value for their 23/10 guy, but I definately think he can and will be moved.


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## bballlife (Oct 5, 2003)

Let Outlaw walk? That would be a giant mistake.


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## bballlife (Oct 5, 2003)

Portland doesn't have to move Zach, and only should if they feel he will have a negative influence on their young guys and team chemistry. 

If Oden comes on quickly, they would have one of the best interior defenders in the league already, and then a guy like Zach with probably the best back-to-the-basket game in the NBA. Don't underestimate the advantage they would have if they had a great presence in the paint on both ends.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

bballlife said:


> Portland doesn't have to move Zach, and only should if they feel he will have a negative influence on their young guys and team chemistry.
> 
> If Oden comes on quickly, they would have one of the best interior defenders in the league already, and then a guy like Zach with probably the best back-to-the-basket game in the NBA. Don't underestimate the advantage they would have if they had a great presence in the paint on both ends.


And if that's what Portland anticipates, then they should start dangling Aldridge in front of Chicago or Atlanta in the hopes of acquiring a very good small forward.


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## mediocre man (Feb 24, 2004)

jericho said:


> And if that's what Portland anticipates, then they should start dangling Aldridge in front of Chicago or Atlanta in the hopes of acquiring a very good small forward.




Aldridge will not be traded. This according to GM Kevin Pritchard. He didnj't hesitate or stutter. "Roy and Aldridge are the two untouchable players on our team"


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

mediocre man said:


> Aldridge will not be traded. This according to GM Kevin Pritchard. He didnj't hesitate or stutter. "Roy and Aldridge are the two untouchable players on our team"


Well, no reason to be hasty. Go into the season with Oden, Randolph and Aldridge scrapping for minutes, and see who earns them. But if Randolph continues to buff his new reputation as one of the best post scorers in the league (and a good rebounder to boot), and Aldridge justifies the faith Pritchard is putting in him, then one of them will need to go within a year. Portland won't be able to afford to keep both of them, both in terms of rising compensation and in terms of the opportunity cost to other positions. And again, I don't know that Randolph will be so easy to move. It'll be interesting to see.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

mediocre man said:


> Aldridge will not be traded. This according to GM Kevin Pritchard. He didnj't hesitate or stutter. "Roy and Aldridge are the two untouchable players on our team"


As a Portland fan, I wouldn't much stock in that. Virtually no player is untouchable. Maybe James and Wade, and Duncan and Shaq in their primes...Aldridge and Roy aren't that level.

If Pritchard said that (I don't mistrust you, just can't say I heard it myself) then he's probably just driving the price up at a time when people might think he really wants to move Randolph or Aldridge, thereby giving other GMs no advantage.

Anyone is movable for the right price.


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## SeaNet (Nov 18, 2004)

bballlife said:


> Portland doesn't have to move Zach, and only should if they feel he will have a negative influence on their young guys and team chemistry.
> 
> If Oden comes on quickly, they would have one of the best interior defenders in the league already, and then a guy like Zach with probably the best back-to-the-basket game in the NBA. Don't underestimate the advantage they would have if they had a great presence in the paint on both ends.


If Zach wasn't cancerous to the bone that would make alot of sense.


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## BleedGreen (Jun 24, 2002)

Take Oden with the 1st Pick

Trade Randolph and Jack to Memphis for the 4th Pick and filler to draft Conley.

That gives them a lineup of: Oden/Aldridge/Outlaw/Roy/Conley

Oden gets to play with Conley and Portland has a PG for the future.

Memphis gets a PG in Jack and a PF in Randolph.


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## compsciguy78 (Dec 16, 2002)

Whatever Portland does they have lots to work with...


They should trade Aldridge(or Roy) and Zbo for Kevin Garnett.


Kevin Garnett, Oden, and Roy....do you think they could win a championship!!!??


Portland is soooo lucky right now. They are the envy of the NBA.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

compsciguy78 said:


> They should trade Aldridge(or Roy) and Zbo for Kevin Garnett.
> 
> 
> Kevin Garnett, Oden, and Roy....do you think they could win a championship!!!??


Unlikely that they would right away, since Oden may need some time to develop fully, and therein lies the problem: KG is a "win now" player, the Blazers' core (Oden/Aldridge/Roy/Rodriguez) are "win in a few years" players.

Right now, when KG is at the height of his powers, his teammates are still developing. By the time Oden, Rodriguez and whichever of Aldridge or Roy you keep are ready to compete at their highest levels, KG will be on the downhill slope.


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## LameR (Jan 4, 2004)

Minstrel said:


> Unlikely that they would right away, since Oden may need some time to develop fully, and therein lies the problem: KG is a "win now" player, the Blazers' core (Oden/Aldridge/Roy/Rodriguez) are "win in a few years" players.
> 
> Right now, when KG is at the height of his powers, his teammates are still developing. By the time Oden, Rodriguez and whichever of Aldridge or Roy you keep are ready to compete at their highest levels, KG will be on the downhill slope.


Ding, ding, ding! Doesn't make sense for the Blazers.


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## compsciguy78 (Dec 16, 2002)

Minstrel said:


> Unlikely that they would right away, since Oden may need some time to develop fully, and therein lies the problem: KG is a "win now" player, the Blazers' core (Oden/Aldridge/Roy/Rodriguez) are "win in a few years" players.
> 
> Right now, when KG is at the height of his powers, his teammates are still developing. By the time Oden, Rodriguez and whichever of Aldridge or Roy you keep are ready to compete at their highest levels, KG will be on the downhill slope.



Oden is ready right now...

You throw KG and Oden together starting next year you get 5 years at winning a championship.

It works great! KG will be declining ala David Robinson when he got Duncan, but he will still be good. 

KG won't decline that bad over the next 5 years, especially since he is a big man. Big men can be 40 years old and have more impact then 40 year old guards. Who cares if KG is going downhill at 34, he is still KG and him and Oden would be amazing together. 



It would be perfect!


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## compsciguy78 (Dec 16, 2002)

Another thing...Lebron was MVP material by his 2nd year in the league.

People like Lebron, Oden, KG are amazing right from the gate.


You throw Oden with KG and you give 7 years of winning, championship caliber basketball to Portland. 

In this day and age of NBA basketball thats something worth going for.


I would buy the argument that most players need to develop, but Greg Oden is ready! You give him KG and 1 year from now they are competing for a championship.


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