# Rhyder's 06-07 Power Ranking



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I began sharing my Power Ranking system last season, and I will continue to do so again this season. For those of you who have forgotten, are now interested this year, or are new to the boards, please read on...

The numbers you will see listed below are the number of pure points I expect a team to win by assuming completely neutral conditions. This is designed as an efficiency rating based only on results from this year only. The logic of my own ratings closely resembles Sagarin's PREDICTOR rating which can be found here.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0607.htm

I use point differential to determine future success, not wins. To demonstrate the difference in logic, suppose you have two teams, A and B. Team A is 0-4 and Team B is 2-2. A fan can go to the standings in the newspaper and make the assumption that Team B is better than Team A. However, Team A has lost four games by 1 point each against tough competition. Team B has two 1-point wins against other easy teams and has gotten blown out by 20 in its two losses against only average teams. Team A probably stands to rate better than team B in my system.

I do discount garbage time, as I do not feel that a team's #8-12 vs. another's 8-12 would help predict anything in the future. Injuries are also not discounted in the normalized data. That means the moment Pau Gasol comes back to the Grizzlies, they _should_ be a better team with him in the lineup than what my ratings indicate at the time. However, from a Power Ranking perspective, I feel that results from the entire season should be factored in.

I apply my own strength of schedule, pace, etc. factors to these normalized data to come up with my own line for NBA games. When I post my ratings each week, I usually share my best bet of the evening assuming I have the time to do so.

*DISCLAIMER: I expect my system to work over time, not for a single game. If you bet your own money, I claim no responsibility for the results. My recommendations are purely for fun and can be used in the vBookie portion of the site if you wish.*
http://www.basketballboards.net/forum/vbookie.php?

I arbitrarily picked that teams needed to play 10 games before I started making wagers. However, I am in the process of collecting data over the seasons to see if there is "better" starting point.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 11/07

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	UTA	9.95
02	CHI	9.88
03	SAS	7.30
04	PHI	6.52
05	NOH	5.64
06	IND	3.49
07	NJN	3.44
08	LAL	3.29
09	HOU	3.05
10	ORL	3.02
11	MIN	2.66
12	CHA	2.58
13	DET	1.66
14	PHO	1.42
15	ATL	0.99
16	CLE	0.69
17	LAC	0.01
18	BOS	-2.63
19	POR	-2.66
20	TOR	-2.71
21	SEA	-3.01
22	WAS	-3.40
23	DEN	-3.75
24	GSW	-4.54
25	MIL	-4.93
26	MEM	-5.56
27	SAC	-6.58
28	MIA	-7.89
29	NYK	-7.94
30	DAL	-13.15

I will be updating this weekly.


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

I guess it takes a while for the ranking to start making sense. 
Will that be after 10 games or will it take more like 20 in your experience?


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Efficiency ratings this early in the season are going to be extremely inaccurate as the results are based on only a handful of possessions. It would be most accurate for those teams already have completed five games (Laker, Timberwolves, and Warriors). It would be least accurate for teams having only played two games thus far (Nets and Nuggets).

Teams that have blowout wins and losses will be skewed in the respective direction accordingly. This is why teams such as Dallas and Miami rate out so poorly at the moment. Miami getting blown out by Chicago and missing Shaq for two games should hurt their efficiency over the four game sample, for example.

I share this data for everyone who likes tracking the differences from week to week. Don't put too much weight on the current numbers.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

McBulls said:


> I guess it takes a while for the ranking to start making sense.
> Will that be after 10 games or will it take more like 20 in your experience?


The more data I have, the more accurate an efficiency measure is going to be, as poor game performances average out at a lesser % of total possessions. That said, all handicappers will have that same information. The trend has been that I have more accurate, albeit fewer wagers as the season progresses.

I have only collected daily data that need be used in my model for five full NBA seasons (this will be my sixth). I have used 10 games as my starting point each season, although that number is completely arbitrary. I do not make full wagers unless I see 3.5 points or more of edge against the line, so I think this builds enough edge to start wagering that early (10 games) in the season.

I track all the efficiency ratings this early so I will better be able to tell what I should use as my starting point in the future. With only five years of data, I'm afraid "feel" is the best I can do at the moment. However, that is part of the fun and why I decided last season to share my results.


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## ace20004u (Jun 19, 2002)

I didn't realize you were such a number cruncher Rhyder, no wonder your killing me this week in my fantasy league! lol

ACE


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

ace20004u said:


> I didn't realize you were such a number cruncher Rhyder, no wonder your killing me this week in my fantasy league! lol
> 
> ACE


Your team did well to make it a lot closer after last night. And believe it or not, crunching basketball statistics is what I do for "fun."


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## ace20004u (Jun 19, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Your team did well to make it a lot closer after last night. And believe it or not, crunching basketball statistics is what I do for "fun."



Yeah kind of like me, I like to scout players for fun lol.

Never got into the numbers much other than watching stats like a hawk. I hope I get a whole lot closer before the end of the week but I am not counting on it at this point! lol


ACE


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 11/14

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01 UTA	7.33 - 
02 SAS	5.99 1 
03 HOU	5.32 6 
04 ORL	5.09 6 
05 NJN	4.89 2 
06 ATL	4.46 9 
07 GSW	3.83 17 
08 PHO	2.63 6 
09 PHI	1.93 (5)
10 LAC	1.44 7 
11 LAL	1.34 (3)
12 CLE	1.02 4 
13 NOH	0.57 (8)
14 MIN	0.40 (3)
15 CHI	0.33 (13)
16 WAS	0.17 6 
17 IND	-0.26 (11)
18 SEA	-0.55 3 
19 SAC	-1.09 8 
20 DEN	-2.00 3 
21 BOS	-2.21 (3)
22 CHA	-2.63 (10)
23 DET	-2.85 (10)
24 POR	-2.92 (5)
25 DAL	-4.20 5 
26 MIL	-4.25 (1)
27 TOR	-5.91 (7)
28 MIA	-5.97 - 
29 MEM	-6.24 (3)
30 NYK	-6.25 (1)

*Surging*
GSW 17
ATL 9
SAC 8 
LAC 7

*Slumping*
CHI (13)
IND (11)
DET (10)
CHA (10)

EDIT: The surging/slumping portion is in terms of +/- differential in rank, not my efficiency rating (although that would be more accurate).


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 11/21

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01 UTA	5.87 - 
02 ORL	5.74 2 
03 SAS	5.52 (1)
04 GSW	4.98 3 
05 HOU	4.54 (2)
06 BOS	3.61 15 
07 ATL	3.60 (1)
08 PHO	2.94 - 
09 CLE	2.85 3 
10 NJN	2.72 (5)
11 LAL	2.37 - 
12 NOH	1.96 1 
13 LAC	1.64 (3)
14 DET	1.45 9 
15 DAL	0.95 10 
16 PHI	-1.06 (7)
17 SEA	-1.21 1 
18 NYK	-1.64 12 
19 DEN	-1.70 1 
20 MIN	-2.01 (6)
21 IND	-2.22 (4)
22 CHA	-2.53 - 
23 CHI	-2.59 (8)
24 SAC	-3.07 (5)
25 WAS	-3.93 (9)
26 POR	-4.20 (2)
27 MIL	-5.24 (1)
28 MEM	-5.32 1 
29 TOR	-6.25 (2)
30 MIA	-8.26 (2)


*Surging*
BOS 15
NYK 12
DAL 10
DET 9


*Slumping*
WAS (9)
CHI (8)
PHI (7)
MIN (6)

Note: An interesting thing to look at is Utah from last week to this week. They dipped about 1.4 points per game in overall efficiency even though they maintain the top spot. Is this a sign of a hot start and are now trending towards normalcy? This sort of points to the flaws of any ranking system and looking at the differential in rank.

Although the counter-argument would be how can you argue that Utah is slumping when they are still rated #1.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

11/22 Bet of the Night

Miami @ San Antonio (-10)

I see the most edge betting on the Spurs minus the 10.



NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

big foam finger: "We're #23!"


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 11/28

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	ORL	6.55
02	SAS	5.78
03	HOU	5.59
04	PHO	5.12
05	GSW	4.67
06	UTA	4.52
07	CLE	2.41
08	DAL	2.06
09	LAL	1.98
10	DET	1.64
11	BOS	1.45
12	ATL	1.40
13	NJN	1.17
14	MIN	1.16
15	DEN	1.00
16	NOH	-1.22
17	SAC	-1.28
18	NYK	-1.33
19	LAC	-1.46
20	CHI	-2.47
21	IND	-2.50
22	SEA	-2.78
23	CHA	-3.03
24	PHI	-3.14
25	TOR	-3.98
26	MEM	-4.59
27	MIA	-4.68
28	WAS	-4.74
29	MIL	-5.24
30	POR	-5.30


*Surging*
DAL 7
SAC 7
MIN 6
Four Teams Tied at 4


*Slumping*
PHI (8)
LAC (6)
Four Teams Tied at (5)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*11/29 Bet of the Night*

Orlando Magic @ Seattle Supersonics (-2.5)

I would bet on *Orlando* plus the 2.5.

--------------------

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 1-0

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *11/29 Bet of the Night*
> 
> Orlando Magic @ Seattle Supersonics (-2.5)
> 
> ...


Great stuff Rhyder, Orlando won by 10 last night.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Great stuff Rhyder, Orlando won by 10 last night.


Thanks for the recognition and glad there's some readers. I started doing my "play of the night" last season after the initial discussion wore off last year to generate more casual interest.

I'm working on a overrated/underrated rating to go along with my efficiency ratings used only for message board interest. i.e. the liklihood of a team maintaining positive performance or sustaining negative performance. I hope that will generate more discussion as I realize posting normalized data using my own methods does not stir up much of that.


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## HINrichPolice (Jan 6, 2004)

This is good stuff Rhyder. 

My recent visit to Vegas this past weekend has gotten me really into betting on games. Do you know of any good websites?

I also pride myself on getting sleepers in the later rounds of my Fantasy Leagues. So I love trying to figure out a model to most accurately predict outcomes of the goings-on of the NBA. Keep'm coming!

PS: How do you import your data? Do you use some sort of program to extract stats from yahoo or espn?


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

HINrichPolice said:


> This is good stuff Rhyder.
> 
> My recent visit to Vegas this past weekend has gotten me really into betting on games. Do you know of any good websites?


I usually use http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ or http://www.tradesports.com

*Friendly word of warning if you are just getting started in gambling--don't overbet your budget. You can have all the edge in the world but if you overbet it can all go away extremely fast. Equating sports betting to Texas hold 'em, do you bet the house every time you have AA? Eventually you are going to get out-drawn and lose everything.

The general rule of thumb is to bet 1/20 of your budget. I play it even more conservatively than this as I can have as many as 8-10 bets out on any given night. If you can't sustain roughly 10 losses in a row, your wager is probably too high.

Don't ever play makeup. Even if you get in an early hole, don't increase your bets to try and get back to even. This can make a sound system's variance kill you much more quickly.*



> I also pride myself on getting sleepers in the later rounds of my Fantasy Leagues. So I love trying to figure out a model to most accurately predict outcomes of the goings-on of the NBA. Keep'm coming!
> 
> PS: How do you import your data? Do you use some sort of program to extract stats from yahoo or espn?


I really don't have a good way to import data, so I have been doing everything manually unfortunately. I could pay sites that collect the data to make a more automated process, but my gambling budget isn't large enough to warrant the expense. I don't use many variables to come up with the normalized data, so the maximum amount of time I spend per night even with a full slate of games is only about 45 minutes.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Interesting stuff all around Rhyder. I've always put NBA on the backburner when it comes to sportsbetting, with college/pro footbal. as my bread and butter. And you're right when it comes to makeup too. I had a crazy weekend in Vegas this past summer lost a little under a G on the green felt. Then my buddy calls me, who has a friend of a friend whose a supposed wiseguy in Vegas, and tells me Dallas +2.5 in game 5 versus Miami. I'm 1/2 drunk on Cognac and have never bet on NBA bball, but decide to lay down one large to 'cover my expenses' for the trip. Thankfully Miami didn't cover and the refs cooperated at the end. Close call. :yay: 

In general, I am as interested in gambling theory and supporting statistics as I am about 'making money' or whatever rationale that drives people to get action on games. So Rhyder keep up the posts they are very enjoyable.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/5

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	SAS	6.76 1 
02	ORL	5.71 (1)
03	PHO	5.35 1 
04	HOU	5.18 (1)
05	LAL	4.34 4 
06	DAL	3.21 2 
07	UTA	3.19 (1)
08	GSW	2.19 (3)
09	DEN	1.82 6 
10	MIN	1.73 4 
11	DET	1.53 (1)
12	ATL	1.41 - 
13	NJN	1.29 - 
14	CLE	0.99 (7)
15	CHI	0.69 5 
16	BOS	0.22 (5)
17	NYK	-0.76 1 
18	LAC	-0.81 1 
19	SAC	-1.64 (2)
20	NOH	-2.26 (4)
21	IND	-2.34 - 
22	CHA	-2.71 1 
23	WAS	-3.21 5 
24	TOR	-3.40 1 
25	SEA	-3.53 (3)
26	MIA	-4.07 1 
27	PHI	-4.64 (3)
28	MEM	-4.71 (2)
29	MIL	-4.74 - 
30	POR	-6.27 - 


*Surging*
DEN 6
CHI 5
WAS 5
2 Teams Tied @ 4


*Slumping*
CLE (7)
BOS (5)
NOH (4)
3 Teams Tied @ (3)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*12/06 Bet of the Night*

Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers (-2.0)

I would bet on *Orlando* plus the 2.0

--------------------

I only have two bets out for this evening, and both of them rated very closely. I hope they're both winners so I am not picking randomly for you all. 

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 2-0

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *12/06 Bet of the Night*
> 
> Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers (-2.0)
> 
> ...


Rhyder I understand that your rankings are for neutral conditions. What point differential, if any, do NBA handicappers lend to home court advantage? The old axiom with the NFL is that home teams are -3 right off the bat. Is there any such parallels with NBA action? Just curious....


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Rhyder I understand that your rankings are for neutral conditions. What point differential, if any, do NBA handicappers lend to home court advantage? The old axiom with the NFL is that home teams are -3 right off the bat. Is there any such parallels with NBA action? Just curious....


I ran a regression three seasons ago and have used 3.2 as my home court advantage for the past three seasons. Average possessions per game across all teams haven't fluctuated more than +/- 1 the past three years, so I haven't bothered to redo it. I would probably do it again if some state of the game or rule change took effect that would alter overall average team possessions (such as 5 teams all of the suddenly playing like Phoenix).

Last time I checked Sagarin, his home court advantage rating was 3.5. Last week it was closer to 3.0. I'm not sure how he determines his measure, but I've kept mine static.

Here's an interesting article I read at 82games a few weeks ago, which basically states there IS a home court advantage.
http://www.nbcsports.com/nba/461432/detail.html

Here also is a discussion of statistical applications relating to basketball. Not completely relevant to the question you asked, but a good read (and I don't agree with all of the application).
http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/methdesc.html


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *12/06 Bet of the Night*
> 
> Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers (-2.0)
> 
> ...


I was 0-2 on the night. The other play I made was New York over Washington. At least I'm not looking bad or good on random occurance.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/12

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	SAS	8.27 - 
02	PHO	7.77 1 
03	HOU	7.05 1 
04	LAL	4.12 1 
05	UTA	3.43 2 
06	ORL	2.96 (4)
07	DAL	2.81 (1)
08	MIN	2.62 2 
09	CLE	2.32 5 
10	DET	2.27 1 
11	CHI	2.08 4 
12	GSW	1.46 (4)
13	DEN	1.30 (4)
14	NJN	0.93 (1)
15	BOS	0.26 1 
16	SEA	-1.47 9 
17	NYK	-1.55 - 
18	SAC	-1.84 1 
19	ATL	-1.92 (7)
20	LAC	-2.20 (2)
21	WAS	-2.27 2 
22	NOH	-2.53 (2)
23	IND	-2.65 (2)
24	MIA	-3.45 2 
25	MIL	-3.90 4 
26	TOR	-4.62 (2)
27	POR	-4.98 3 
28	MEM	-5.29 - 
29	PHI	-5.52 (2)
30	CHA	-5.78 (8)


*Surging*
SEA 9
CLE 5
CHI 4
MIL 4


*Slumping*
CHA (8)
ATL (7)
3 Teams Tied @ (4)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*12/13 Bet of the Night*

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks (-8.5)

I would bet on *LA Lakers* plus the 8.5

--------------------

This is the game I see with the most edge. However, that edge is not great enough for me to make a wager (I only make bets when I see 3.5 points or more of edge). I'm still posting the bet of the week for all those tracking for fun, but I would not recommend making a real wager on any game this evening.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 2-1

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

Rhyder said:


> *12/13 Bet of the Night*
> 
> LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks (-8.5)
> 
> ...


Oldum just got hurt and will probably be out, so that probably changes things. Dallas will stomp them.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

McBulls said:


> Oldum just got hurt and will probably be out, so that probably changes things. Dallas will stomp them.


Odom's injury is accounted for both in the line, and my line.

With Odom in, I have Dallas favored by 3.5.
With Odom out, I have Dallas favored by 6.0.

It's 2.5 points of edge vs. the line (and the most out of all the games), but not enough for me to make a wager.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/20. I didn't have time to update you all yesterday in my usual weekly fashion, but here are my most current ratings.

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	SAS	8.86 - 
02	PHO	8.14 - 
03	HOU	5.52 - 
04	UTA	4.50 1 
05	DAL	3.81 2 
06	LAL	3.20 (2)
07	CLE	2.95 2 
08	ORL	2.55 (2)
09	CHI	2.20 2 
10	GSW	2.06 2 
11	BOS	1.88 4 
12	MIN	1.69 (4)
13	DET	1.53 (3)
14	DEN	1.26 (1)
15	NJN	0.43 (1)
16	WAS	-0.35 5 
17	IND	-1.78 6 
18	ATL	-2.17 1 
19	NYK	-2.29 (2)
20	SEA	-2.32 (4)
21	TOR	-3.00 5 
22	SAC	-3.32 (4)
23	LAC	-3.46 (3)
24	MIL	-3.50 1 
25	NOH	-3.73 (3)
26	MIA	-3.80 (2)
27	POR	-4.06 - 
28	CHA	-5.34 2 
29	MEM	-5.86 (1)
30	PHI	-6.51 (1)


*Surging*
IND 6
WAS 5
TOR 5
BOS 4


*Slumping*
MIN (4)
SEA (4)
SAC (4)
3 Teams Tied @ (3)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*12/21 Bet of the Night*

Washington Wizards @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5)

I would bet on *Washington Wizards* plus the 3.5

--------------------

Missed on the Lakers last week by half a point.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 2-2

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


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## McBulls (Apr 28, 2005)

Rhyder said:


> As of games completed 12/20.
> *27	POR	-4.06 -*
> 28	CHA	-5.34 2
> 29	MEM	-5.86 (1)
> ...


Why no love for Portland? They're streaking and just beat two good teams (Clipper & Rockets). Seems like they should have moved up a bit.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

McBulls said:


> Why no love for Portland? They're streaking and just beat two good teams (Clipper & Rockets). Seems like they should have moved up a bit.


This sort of points to the flaws of any ranking system. If you take a look at the previous week, POR had a rating near -5. This week, they have a rating near -4. Even though they moved up almost 1 full (normalized) ppg, there just wasn't any team close enough to them to take advantage of moving ahead of them in rank.

People tend to overvalue streaks. Example: the Bulls have won 12 out of their last 13. Does this mean we should expect them to win at a 92% rate the rest of the season?

It could very well be Portland has figured some things out and is playing better ball. I would say that they still have a negative expectancy and their success over the last few games isn't more indicitive than their failures throughout most of the rest of the season. Also note where I have the Pacers and Clippers ranked.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 12/26.

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	SAS	9.03 - 
02	PHO	7.91 - 
03	DAL	5.46 2 
04	HOU	5.31 (1)
05	UTA	3.94 (1)
06	LAL	3.70 - 
07	CHI	3.15 2 
08	DET	3.13 5 
09	ORL	2.19 (1)
10	CLE	1.42 (3)
11	GSW	1.38 (1)
12	DEN	1.32 2 
13	BOS	1.22 (2)
14	MIN	0.84 (2)
15	NJN	-0.15 - 
16	WAS	-0.48 - 
17	IND	-1.22 - 
18	MIL	-1.84 6 
19	SEA	-1.98 1 
20	NYK	-2.00 (1)
21	MIA	-3.51 5 
22	TOR	-3.51 (1)
23	SAC	-3.64 (1)
24	ATL	-3.82 (6)
25	POR	-3.99 2 
26	LAC	-4.02 (3)
27	PHI	-4.77 3 
28	MEM	-4.84 1 
29	NOH	-4.92 (4)
30	CHA	-6.13 (2)


*Surging*
MIL 6
DET 5
MIA 5
PHI 3

NOTE: Miami's "surge" has more to do with teams formerly above them in rank playing poorly than it has to do with them playing much better. Notice only the small change in rating from last week to this.


*Slumping*
ATL (6)
NOH (4)
LAC (3)
CLE (3)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*12/27 Bet of the Night*

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls (-6.0)

I would bet on the *Chicago Bulls* minus the 6.0 -- this is my only bet of the evening out of the entire schedule of games.

--------------------

Last week, Washington won outright over Sacramento despite being given 3.5 points.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 3-2

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Due to a lack of free time, I was unable to update you all with the changes last week. The change in rank will be from my last post to this post, not the change from last week which I didn't get a chance to post.

As of games completed 1/10:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	9.47 1 
02	SAS	8.15 (1)
03	HOU	6.66 1 
04	DAL	5.72 (1)
05	ORL	3.58 4 
06	CHI	3.34 1 
07	LAL	3.13 (1)
08	UTA	3.00 (3)
09	CLE	2.03 1 
10	DET	1.96 (2)
11	MIN	1.21 3 
12	WAS	0.40 4 
13	GSW	0.24 (2)
14	NJN	-0.03 1 
15	DEN	-0.11 (3)
16	IND	-0.67 1 
17	BOS	-0.74 (4)
18	LAC	-1.56 8 
19	NYK	-1.58 1 
20	MIL	-1.79 (2)
21	SAC	-1.85 2 
22	TOR	-2.92 - 
23	SEA	-3.13 (4)
24	MIA	-3.78 (3)
25	MEM	-4.05 3 
26	NOH	-4.38 3 
27	POR	-5.27 (2)
28	CHA	-6.01 2 
29	ATL	-6.04 (5)
30	PHI	-6.06 (3)


*Surging*
LAC 8
ORL 4
WAS 4
3 teams tied @ 3


*Slumping*
ATL (5)
BOS (4)
SEA (4)
4 teams ties @ (3)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*1/12 Bet of the Night*

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Phoenix Suns (-8.5)

I would bet on the *Phoenix Suns* minus the 8.5

This is the most attractive game I see for the night. I do not see enough edge to make any bets myself.

--------------------

Last post, Chicago beat Miami by 6, making the bet a push for the week.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 3-2-1

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

For all the doom and gloomers out there, I wanted to point out that the Bulls maintained their efficiency rating, even during their current struggles to get a win against good teams. This is probably why we have seen all the "Bulls can't finish" type posts.

I was actually surprised that the rating lifted slightly as well. Perhaps it is because of the good D we have been playing the majority of games as of late. Combine that good D with the good O we saw earlier in the season and we could become a scary team. This leads to my the team is learning to gel type argument.

We are on the other side of the coin from where we were two years ago. Our 47 win season, we pulled off what seemed like miracle come from behind wins. This season, we have had some really good games that we have blown in the end. While the former definately is more exciting than the latter. I definately think we are headed in the right direction.

Looking at basketball from an efficiency standpoint, I tend to think things will average themself out over time. The Bulls are probably one of the most underrated teams at this point in my book.

Also, look at the Yao-less Rockets. They aren't missing a beat. In fact, they are playing better. That should be a scary team that could make some noise in the playoffs once he gets back assuming they remain healthy of course.


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## MikeDC (Jul 16, 2002)

Thanks Rhyder, I always look forward to reading this!


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

MikeDC said:


> Thanks Rhyder, I always look forward to reading this!


As do I. When the "best picks" formula is refined so it's perfect, I'll go bet. Though I remember he had a Raptors/Seattle pick that I almost did go bet. Spot on pick.


:biggrin:


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder, you the man!!!

(Any picks for this weekend would be greatly appreciated... SD is gonna be in LV Sat-Mon... so perhaps I'll take a break from the poker tables to get a little action going on the side... )


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> As do I. When the "best picks" formula is refined so it's perfect, I'll go bet. Though I remember he had a Raptors/Seattle pick that I almost did go bet. Spot on pick.
> 
> 
> :biggrin:


I'm not quite sure what you mean by this. My line for the game is Phoenix -11.6. Thus, I see 3.1 points of edge for the game. If I find Phoenix -8 anywhere, I'd go make that bet

Over the past six years, I have a 61% winning percentage when I see 3.5+ points of edge. I have a 54% winning percentage on games in the 2.5-3.49 of edge range. I haven't been actively betting these games, but I have been tracking them real time just to be sure my 3.5 point theory still looks in order. I picked 3.5 points as my starting point originally because I don't want some random basket at the end of games skewing results.

The weekly bet of the night is the game I see most attractive. When I claim I'm betting on it, is when it has 3.5+ of edge. When I claim I'm not, it has less. Basically, I'm trying to protect people from making bets with little expected return. However, I still make the pick for fun and in spirit of the board, or if you want to go do something on vBookie.

Thus, the "best pick" formula is refined. The point at which I start picking games is not yet. I have been using 10 games as my starting point each year, but as I collect the real-time data, I will take a look to see if there seems to be a better starting point. 6 years * 30 teams = 180 data points doesn't seem like enough yet.

Hope that cleared up some things instead of being more confusing.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> Rhyder, you the man!!!
> 
> (Any picks for this weekend would be greatly appreciated... SD is gonna be in LV Sat-Mon... so perhaps I'll take a break from the poker tables to get a little action going on the side... )


My plan was to watch the NFL playoffs this weekend, and I wasn't figuring to be around the computer that much.

You could take my data and try and do something yourself. At this point in the season, one game will not skew the overall results by very much.

Remember that those ratings are points a team is expected to win (or lose if negative) under these conditions:
-normalized pace
-rest not a factor
-strength of schedule not taken into account
-home court advantage not a factor (I use 3.2)
-injuries not taken into account (like Memphis is probably better with Pau back)

Not that I'm trying to encourage gambling. I don't want any significant others knocking at my door :biggrin:


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> I'm not quite sure what you mean by this. My line for the game is Phoenix -11.6. Thus, I see 3.1 points of edge for the game. If I find Phoenix -8 anywhere, I'd go make that bet
> 
> Over the past six years, I have a 61% winning percentage when I see 3.5+ points of edge. I have a 54% winning percentage on games in the 2.5-3.49 of edge range. I haven't been actively betting these games, but I have been tracking them real time just to be sure my 3.5 point theory still looks in order. I picked 3.5 points as my starting point originally because I don't want some random basket at the end of games skewing results.
> 
> ...


Your season record is 3-2-1. If it were 6-0, it'd be perfect. That's all I was getting at.

I'm not a betting kind of fellow, though I enjoy the game theory and buzz around it. "Perfect" wouldn't make it a bet, but a sure thing. That's a whole different story


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Your season record is 3-2-1. If it were 6-0, it'd be perfect. That's all I was getting at.
> 
> I'm not a betting kind of fellow, though I enjoy the game theory and buzz around it. "Perfect" wouldn't make it a bet, but a sure thing. That's a whole different story


Ah, I gotcha.

Even if I were 6-0, I'd still only expect around a 61% probability of winning the next one. Unfortunately in the gambling world, there is no such thing as perfect.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Ah, I gotcha.
> 
> Even if I were 6-0, I'd still only expect around a 61% probability of winning the next one. Unfortunately in the gambling world, there is no such thing as perfect.


61% over the past 6 years is pretty flipping awesome if you ask me. Depending on the juice (I know you didn't bet on most of the games Rhyder but just making a point for the larger audience) you would actually _make_money on NBA games. I've always followed the adage that you can't make money over the long-term on NBA games. Just too much volatility. Rhyder's system is beginning to wrinkle my brain a bit.

The NFL isn't what it used to be, call it parody, mediocrity, volatility or whatever. You just can't bet home dogs and expect to hit 60-percent anymore. The past three years have been especially brutal. Granted my betting units have been small, but still.

(Pardon me as I toot my own horn) I did make my largest bet of the year, 16 units, on Florida +7.5 versus Ohio State a few days ago. Gotta love college football!!


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Ah, I gotcha.
> 
> Even if I were 6-0, I'd still only expect around a 61% probability of winning the next one. Unfortunately in the gambling world, there is no such thing as perfect.


61% fo all games but 100% in a handful of sure-thing kind of picks would be my best expectation


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="yspsctnhdln">Just for comparison purposes - the records vs. your power rankings... Your rankings aren't a whole lot different than Steve Kerr's latest. FWIW

2006-07 NBA Regular Season Standings</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="7"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> <select name="year" onchange="this.form.submit()"> <option value="season_2006" selected="selected">2006-07 Season</option> <option value="preseason_2006">2006-07 Preseason</option> <option value="season_2005">2005-06 Season</option> <option value="season_2004">2004-05 Season</option> <option value="season_2003">2003-04 Season</option> <option value="season_2002">2002-03 Season</option> </select> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"> <td colspan="12" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Eastern Conference Standings</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Atlantic</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> New Jersey</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.457</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">11-10</td> <td align="right">5-9</td> <td align="right">4-2</td> <td align="right">12-9</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Toronto</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">.444</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">10-5</td> <td align="right">6-15</td> <td align="right">4-2</td> <td align="right">11-8</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> New York</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">21</td> <td align="right">.432</td> <td align="right">1.0</td> <td align="right">9-10</td> <td align="right">7-11</td> <td align="right">2-4</td> <td align="right">10-12</td> <td align="right">Won 3 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Boston</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">.353</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td align="right">4-12</td> <td align="right">8-10</td> <td align="right">4-4</td> <td align="right">8-13</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Philadelphia</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td align="right">26</td> <td align="right">.257</td> <td align="right">7.0</td> <td align="right">4-8</td> <td align="right">5-18</td> <td align="right">2-4</td> <td align="right">6-14</td> <td align="right">Lost 4 </td> <td align="right">3-7 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Central</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Cleveland</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td align="right">.647</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">15-3</td> <td align="right">7-9</td> <td align="right">4-3</td> <td align="right">15-10</td> <td align="right">Won 5 </td> <td align="right">8-2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Detroit</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">.606</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">9-6</td> <td align="right">11-7</td> <td align="right">1-4</td> <td align="right">14-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Indiana</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">.556</td> <td align="right">3.0</td> <td align="right">10-5</td> <td align="right">10-11</td> <td align="right">5-3</td> <td align="right">15-9</td> <td align="right">Won 3 </td> <td align="right">7-3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Chicago</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">.541</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td align="right">15-5</td> <td align="right">5-12</td> <td align="right">6-1</td> <td align="right">17-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 3 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Milwaukee</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.457</td> <td align="right">6.5</td> <td align="right">9-6</td> <td align="right">7-13</td> <td align="right">1-6</td> <td align="right">6-14</td> <td align="right">Lost 4 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Southeast</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Orlando</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">.611</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">14-6</td> <td align="right">8-8</td> <td align="right">6-3</td> <td align="right">12-9</td> <td align="right">Won 5 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Washington</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">.588</td> <td align="right">1.0</td> <td align="right">14-3</td> <td align="right">6-11</td> <td align="right">5-1</td> <td align="right">13-9</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">8-2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Miami</td> <td align="right">15</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.441</td> <td align="right">6.0</td> <td align="right">8-9</td> <td align="right">7-10</td> <td align="right">2-3</td> <td align="right">6-10</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Atlanta</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">.303</td> <td align="right">10.5</td> <td align="right">5-10</td> <td align="right">5-13</td> <td align="right">2-3</td> <td align="right">6-14</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">1-9 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Charlotte</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">.303</td> <td align="right">10.5</td> <td align="right">6-11</td> <td align="right">4-12</td> <td align="right">1-6</td> <td align="right">7-13</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="18"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="yspsctbg"> <td colspan="12" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Western Conference Standings</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Southwest</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Dallas</td> <td align="right">29</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">.784</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">17-3</td> <td align="right">12-5</td> <td align="right">7-2</td> <td align="right">21-6</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">9-1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> San Antonio</td> <td align="right">26</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td align="right">.703</td> <td align="right">3.0</td> <td align="right">13-6</td> <td align="right">13-5</td> <td align="right">6-3</td> <td align="right">18-7</td> <td align="right">Won 3 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Houston</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">.639</td> <td align="right">5.5</td> <td align="right">13-3</td> <td align="right">10-10</td> <td align="right">5-2</td> <td align="right">11-11</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">7-3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> New Orl/OKC</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">.371</td> <td align="right">15.0</td> <td align="right">7-10</td> <td align="right">6-12</td> <td align="right">2-5</td> <td align="right">6-16</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Memphis</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td align="right">27</td> <td align="right">.250</td> <td align="right">19.5</td> <td align="right">7-11</td> <td align="right">2-16</td> <td align="right">0-8</td> <td align="right">4-15</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">3-7 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Northwest</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Utah</td> <td align="right">24</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td align="right">.686</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">14-3</td> <td align="right">10-8</td> <td align="right">4-1</td> <td align="right">16-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Minnesota</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">.515</td> <td align="right">6.0</td> <td align="right">11-6</td> <td align="right">6-10</td> <td align="right">4-2</td> <td align="right">10-10</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">7-3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Denver</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">.515</td> <td align="right">6.0</td> <td align="right">10-9</td> <td align="right">7-7</td> <td align="right">2-2</td> <td align="right">5-10</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">3-7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Portland</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">.378</td> <td align="right">11.0</td> <td align="right">7-11</td> <td align="right">7-12</td> <td align="right">2-2</td> <td align="right">9-11</td> <td align="right">Lost 3 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Seattle</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">25</td> <td align="right">.342</td> <td align="right">12.5</td> <td align="right">9-9</td> <td align="right">4-16</td> <td align="right">0-5</td> <td align="right">5-15</td> <td align="right">Lost 6 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Pacific</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Phoenix</td> <td align="right">26</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">.765</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">15-3</td> <td align="right">11-5</td> <td align="right">6-2</td> <td align="right">12-7</td> <td align="right">Won 7 </td> <td align="right">8-2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> LA Lakers</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">.639</td> <td align="right">4.0</td> <td align="right">16-4</td> <td align="right">7-9</td> <td align="right">5-0</td> <td align="right">15-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Golden State</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.486</td> <td align="right">9.5</td> <td align="right">14-6</td> <td align="right">4-13</td> <td align="right">2-5</td> <td align="right">12-13</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> LA Clippers</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.472</td> <td align="right">10.0</td> <td align="right">12-6</td> <td align="right">5-13</td> <td align="right">2-4</td> <td align="right">11-15</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Sacramento</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">.438</td> <td align="right">11.0</td> <td align="right">10-10</td> <td align="right">4-8</td> <td align="right">2-6</td> <td align="right">8-13</td> <td align="right">Lost 3 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="18"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" class="yspscores"> *x*-Clinched Playoff Spot; *y*-Division Champ; *z*-Clinched Home Court 
Last updated Thursday, Jan 11, 2007 10:46 pm EST
</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td height="7"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"> <td class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Eastern Conference</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ysptblbdr2"> <table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td colspan="2" class="yspdetailttl" height="18"> Team</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right">GB </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 1.</td> <td> * Cleveland</td> <td align="right">-- </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18"> 2.</td> <td> * Orlando</td> <td align="right">1.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 3.</td> <td> Detroit</td> <td align="right">1.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18"> 4.</td> <td> * New Jersey</td> <td align="right">6.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 5.</td> <td> Washington</td> <td align="right">2.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18"> 6.</td> <td> Indiana</td> <td align="right">3.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 7.</td> <td> Chicago</td> <td align="right">3.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18"> 8.</td> <td> Milwaukee</td> <td align="right">6.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 9.</td> <td> Toronto</td> <td align="right">7.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18"> 10.</td> <td> Miami</td> <td align="right">7.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 11.</td> <td> New York</td> <td align="right">7.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18"> 12.</td> <td> Boston</td> <td align="right">10.0 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 13.</td> <td> Atlanta</td> <td align="right">11.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18"> 14.</td> <td> Charlotte</td> <td align="right">11.5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td height="18"> 15.</td> <td> Philadelphia</td> <td align="right">13.5 </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *11/29 Bet of the Night*
> 
> Orlando Magic @ Seattle Supersonics (-2.5)
> 
> ...


FYI

Living in Vegas, I can go make a sportsbook bet by phone or internet or a short drive to a casino. When I saw this pick, I seriously considered it. This was one of those "sure thing" kind of picks. 

I want to point out that the last sportsbook bet I made was a futures bet on the bulls to win the championship last season at 300-1. A friend and I split a $10 ticket. And it absolutely was a homer bet (low expectations of winning, just a bet for bet's sake on my team). :biggrin:


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> 61% fo all games but 100% in a handful of sure-thing kind of picks would be my best expectation


Early on in the season, I'll see some games with 7+ points of edge. Even though 7 might sound like a "sure thing," it doesn't rate out much better than the teams I select with 4 points of edge.

Of course that sample size is much smaller. Also, one really good or really bad game by a team will skew overall results much moreso early in the season. Chicago blowing out Miami in the first game of the season would lead them as overrated early on in the season. Of course we had our early road schedule balancing expectations out a bit.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="yspsctnhdln">Just for comparison purposes - the records vs. your power rankings... Your rankings aren't a whole lot different than Steve Kerr's latest. FWIW
> 
> 2006-07 NBA Regular Season Standings</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="7"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> <select name="year" onchange="this.form.submit()"> <option value="season_2006" selected="selected">2006-07 Season</option> <option value="preseason_2006">2006-07 Preseason</option> <option value="season_2005">2005-06 Season</option> <option value="season_2004">2004-05 Season</option> <option value="season_2003">2003-04 Season</option> <option value="season_2002">2002-03 Season</option> </select> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"> <td colspan="12" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Eastern Conference Standings</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Atlantic</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> New Jersey</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.457</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">11-10</td> <td align="right">5-9</td> <td align="right">4-2</td> <td align="right">12-9</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Toronto</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">.444</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">10-5</td> <td align="right">6-15</td> <td align="right">4-2</td> <td align="right">11-8</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> New York</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">21</td> <td align="right">.432</td> <td align="right">1.0</td> <td align="right">9-10</td> <td align="right">7-11</td> <td align="right">2-4</td> <td align="right">10-12</td> <td align="right">Won 3 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Boston</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">.353</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td align="right">4-12</td> <td align="right">8-10</td> <td align="right">4-4</td> <td align="right">8-13</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Philadelphia</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td align="right">26</td> <td align="right">.257</td> <td align="right">7.0</td> <td align="right">4-8</td> <td align="right">5-18</td> <td align="right">2-4</td> <td align="right">6-14</td> <td align="right">Lost 4 </td> <td align="right">3-7 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Central</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Cleveland</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">12</td> <td align="right">.647</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">15-3</td> <td align="right">7-9</td> <td align="right">4-3</td> <td align="right">15-10</td> <td align="right">Won 5 </td> <td align="right">8-2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Detroit</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">.606</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">9-6</td> <td align="right">11-7</td> <td align="right">1-4</td> <td align="right">14-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Indiana</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">.556</td> <td align="right">3.0</td> <td align="right">10-5</td> <td align="right">10-11</td> <td align="right">5-3</td> <td align="right">15-9</td> <td align="right">Won 3 </td> <td align="right">7-3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Chicago</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">.541</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td align="right">15-5</td> <td align="right">5-12</td> <td align="right">6-1</td> <td align="right">17-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 3 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Milwaukee</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.457</td> <td align="right">6.5</td> <td align="right">9-6</td> <td align="right">7-13</td> <td align="right">1-6</td> <td align="right">6-14</td> <td align="right">Lost 4 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Southeast</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Orlando</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">.611</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">14-6</td> <td align="right">8-8</td> <td align="right">6-3</td> <td align="right">12-9</td> <td align="right">Won 5 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Washington</td> <td align="right">20</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">.588</td> <td align="right">1.0</td> <td align="right">14-3</td> <td align="right">6-11</td> <td align="right">5-1</td> <td align="right">13-9</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">8-2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Miami</td> <td align="right">15</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.441</td> <td align="right">6.0</td> <td align="right">8-9</td> <td align="right">7-10</td> <td align="right">2-3</td> <td align="right">6-10</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Atlanta</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">.303</td> <td align="right">10.5</td> <td align="right">5-10</td> <td align="right">5-13</td> <td align="right">2-3</td> <td align="right">6-14</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">1-9 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Charlotte</td> <td align="right">10</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">.303</td> <td align="right">10.5</td> <td align="right">6-11</td> <td align="right">4-12</td> <td align="right">1-6</td> <td align="right">7-13</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="18"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="yspsctbg"> <td colspan="12" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Western Conference Standings</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Southwest</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Dallas</td> <td align="right">29</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">.784</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">17-3</td> <td align="right">12-5</td> <td align="right">7-2</td> <td align="right">21-6</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">9-1 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> San Antonio</td> <td align="right">26</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td align="right">.703</td> <td align="right">3.0</td> <td align="right">13-6</td> <td align="right">13-5</td> <td align="right">6-3</td> <td align="right">18-7</td> <td align="right">Won 3 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Houston</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">.639</td> <td align="right">5.5</td> <td align="right">13-3</td> <td align="right">10-10</td> <td align="right">5-2</td> <td align="right">11-11</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">7-3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> New Orl/OKC</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td align="right">.371</td> <td align="right">15.0</td> <td align="right">7-10</td> <td align="right">6-12</td> <td align="right">2-5</td> <td align="right">6-16</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Memphis</td> <td align="right">9</td> <td align="right">27</td> <td align="right">.250</td> <td align="right">19.5</td> <td align="right">7-11</td> <td align="right">2-16</td> <td align="right">0-8</td> <td align="right">4-15</td> <td align="right">Won 1 </td> <td align="right">3-7 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Northwest</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Utah</td> <td align="right">24</td> <td align="right">11</td> <td align="right">.686</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">14-3</td> <td align="right">10-8</td> <td align="right">4-1</td> <td align="right">16-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Minnesota</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">.515</td> <td align="right">6.0</td> <td align="right">11-6</td> <td align="right">6-10</td> <td align="right">4-2</td> <td align="right">10-10</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">7-3 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Denver</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">16</td> <td align="right">.515</td> <td align="right">6.0</td> <td align="right">10-9</td> <td align="right">7-7</td> <td align="right">2-2</td> <td align="right">5-10</td> <td align="right">Lost 1 </td> <td align="right">3-7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> Portland</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">.378</td> <td align="right">11.0</td> <td align="right">7-11</td> <td align="right">7-12</td> <td align="right">2-2</td> <td align="right">9-11</td> <td align="right">Lost 3 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Seattle</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">25</td> <td align="right">.342</td> <td align="right">12.5</td> <td align="right">9-9</td> <td align="right">4-16</td> <td align="right">0-5</td> <td align="right">5-15</td> <td align="right">Lost 6 </td> <td align="right">2-8 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1"> <td class="yspdetailttl" height="18" width="19%"> Pacific</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">W</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="4%">L</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">Pct</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="8%">GB</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Home </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Road </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Div </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Conf </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="10%">Streak </td> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="right" width="7%">L10 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Phoenix</td> <td align="right">26</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">.765</td> <td align="right">--</td> <td align="right">15-3</td> <td align="right">11-5</td> <td align="right">6-2</td> <td align="right">12-7</td> <td align="right">Won 7 </td> <td align="right">8-2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> LA Lakers</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">.639</td> <td align="right">4.0</td> <td align="right">16-4</td> <td align="right">7-9</td> <td align="right">5-0</td> <td align="right">15-7</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Golden State</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.486</td> <td align="right">9.5</td> <td align="right">14-6</td> <td align="right">4-13</td> <td align="right">2-5</td> <td align="right">12-13</td> <td align="right">Lost 2 </td> <td align="right">5-5 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td> LA Clippers</td> <td align="right">17</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td align="right">.472</td> <td align="right">10.0</td> <td align="right">12-6</td> <td align="right">5-13</td> <td align="right">2-4</td> <td align="right">11-15</td> <td align="right">Won 2 </td> <td align="right">6-4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1"> <td> Sacramento</td> <td align="right">14</td> <td align="right">18</td> <td align="right">.438</td> <td align="right">11.0</td> <td align="right">10-10</td> <td align="right">4-8</td> <td align="right">2-6</td> <td align="right">8-13</td> <td align="right">Lost 3 </td> <td align="right">4-6 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="5"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" height="18"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="12" class="yspscores"> *x*-Clinched Playoff Spot; *y*-Division Champ; *z*-Clinched Home Court
> Last updated Thursday, Jan 11, 2007 10:46 pm EST
> ...


Generally, you'll find I make my bets when there is disparity in efficiency vs. win %. Since I view the Bulls as an ~1ppg better team than Cleveland, I would expect to be betting on the Bulls if they played Cleveland, despite the winning % for this season.

Of course some teams line up, but people tend to value teams on a hot streak as better than what they are overall. The Bulls are on a cold streak, and so many posters on the site are predicting doom and gloom. Yet, I still have them rated as the #6 team without a negative result despite winning 1 game out of their last 6.

These inefficiencies is where I try and take advantage of opportunity.


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Early on in the season, I'll see some games with 7+ points of edge. Even though 7 might sound like a "sure thing," it doesn't rate out much better than the teams I select with 4 points of edge.
> 
> Of course that sample size is much smaller. Also, one really good or really bad game by a team will skew overall results much moreso early in the season. Chicago blowing out Miami in the first game of the season would lead them as overrated early on in the season. Of course we had our early road schedule balancing expectations out a bit.


If I were to have used my gut to give odds on that Orlando/Seattle game, Seattle would have got points, not given them. So it was a real obvious pick. Your system highlighted that game out of a bunch of games, which is awesome. If you see any more like that, post 'em


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 1/16:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	9.64 - 
02	SAS	7.87 - 
03	HOU	6.05 - 
04	DAL	5.38 - 
05	CHI	4.39 1 
06	LAL	3.07 1 
07	ORL	2.94 (2)
08	UTA	2.50 - 
09	MIN	1.59 2 
10	DET	1.50 - 
11	CLE	1.49 (2)
12	NJN	0.10 2 
13	DEN	0.01 2 
14	GSW	-0.17 (1)
15	WAS	-0.37 (3)
16	IND	-0.93 - 
17	BOS	-1.02 - 
18	MIL	-1.68 2 
19	NYK	-1.83 - 
20	LAC	-1.86 (2)
21	SAC	-1.94 - 
22	TOR	-2.05 - 
23	MIA	-2.75 1 
24	SEA	-2.80 (1)
25	NOH	-3.63 1 
26	MEM	-5.03 (1)
27	CHA	-5.12 1 
28	POR	-5.14 (1)
29	ATL	-5.29 - 
30	PHI	-5.86 - 


*Surging*
MIN 2
NJN 2
DEN 2
MIL 2


*Slumping*
WAS (3)
ORL (2)
CLE (2)
LAC (2)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*1/17 Bet of the Night*

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

I would bet on the *Golden State Warriors* plus the 6.5

This is the most attractive game I see for the night. I have two plays on for the night myself.

--------------------

Last week, Phoenix beat Cleveland by 19 covering the 8.5 points.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 4-2-1

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *1/17 Bet of the Night*
> 
> Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)
> 
> ...


It looks like my model might have picked this game up because the possibility of the trade was priced in. If you have not already made your plays, I would hold off on this one.

Since I already made a play +6.5 points, I'll leave this one to count towards my overall record. After all, I would have done the same if LAC decided to trade half their team instead.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> It looks like my model might have picked this game up because the possibility of the trade was priced in. If you have not already made your plays, I would hold off on this one.
> 
> Since I already made a play +6.5 points, I'll leave this one to count towards my overall record. After all, I would have done the same if LAC decided to trade half their team instead.


The game may be "off." You probably get your money back and it's a no-bet. You can legitimately call off the pick and not count it toward your overall record, IMO.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> The game may be "off." You probably get your money back and it's a no-bet. You can legitimately call off the pick and not count it toward your overall record, IMO.


I didn't think players not playing was reason enough for no action. Does a player getting injured in warmups make it so that all action is canceled on the game? I'm really only familiar with how tradesports and pinnacle handles sports wagering. Perhaps Vegas handles it differently?

There was action on my bet, and lucky enough for me it was a hit. I would tend to think that it should count towards my record, even had I lost. My system will always pick up on things like this, so it should be factored into results.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 1/23:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	10.31 - 
02	SAS	7.77 - 
03	DAL	5.87 1 
04	HOU	5.30 (1)
05	CHI	4.22 - 
06	UTA	2.88 2 
07	ORL	2.36 - 
08	LAL	2.33 (2)
09	DET	1.93 1 
10	DEN	0.60 3 
11	NJN	0.53 1 
12	CLE	0.38 (1)
13	MIN	-0.10 (4)
14	GSW	-0.43 - 
15	WAS	-0.56 - 
16	LAC	-0.98 4 
17	IND	-1.19 (1)
18	TOR	-1.33 4 
19	BOS	-1.36 (2)
20	NYK	-1.80 (1)
21	SEA	-1.90 3 
22	MIA	-2.17 1 
23	SAC	-2.56 (2)
24	MIL	-3.04 (6)
25	NOH	-3.74 - 
26	CHA	-4.40 1 
27	POR	-4.48 1 
28	MEM	-4.85 (2)
29	ATL	-5.44 - 
30	PHI	-5.54 - 


*Surging*
LAC 4
TOR 4
DEN 3
SEA 3


*Slumping*
MIL (6)
MIN (4)
4 teams tied @ (2)


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> I didn't think players not playing was reason enough for no action. Does a player getting injured in warmups make it so that all action is canceled on the game? I'm really only familiar with how tradesports and pinnacle handles sports wagering. Perhaps Vegas handles it differently?
> 
> There was action on my bet, and lucky enough for me it was a hit. I would tend to think that it should count towards my record, even had I lost. My system will always pick up on things like this, so it should be factored into results.


Sorry I missed this.

I'm pretty sure the bookies can call any bet "off" and simply refund the bets. I know when Shaq got hurt they called off bets for the Heat games. For the past few seasons, no less (he's gotten hurt) 

If the game isn't "off the board" you can always make the same sized bet on the other team and make your bets wash. You lose the vig, but not everything.
:cheers:


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Sorry I missed this.
> 
> I'm pretty sure the bookies can call any bet "off" and simply refund the bets. I know when Shaq got hurt they called off bets for the Heat games. For the past few seasons, no less (he's gotten hurt)
> 
> ...


Interesting stuff. I always assumed that these uncertainties were priced into the line. If they find some way to regulate the UIGA, I will have to look to other alternatives, which this sort of info is definately useful for.


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Interesting stuff. I always assumed that these uncertainties were priced into the line. If they find some way to regulate the UIGA, I will have to look to other alternatives, which this sort of info is definately useful for.


It actually makes sense if you think about it. 

Shaq gets hurt in pre-game, and the betting public has more money bet against the Heat. The sportsbook stands to lose all those bets. For those who bet on the heat, they're sorta cheated, having made their bets assuming Shaq would play.

If there's enough time, the house can move the lines accordingly to attract bets to even things out in reaction to an injury.

Realize the house doesn't want to have more money bet on one side of the line than the other. In theory, they want the bets to be even so they pay out nothing, but get paid from the vig. Also, in theory, they could set the lines to attract all the money to one side, but they better be sure the other side wins - or they lose a ton. (That's called "going naked", and it happens). I know that more than one sportsbook oddsmaker has been fired when the house has gone naked and lost.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> It actually makes sense if you think about it.
> 
> Shaq gets hurt in pre-game, and the betting public has more money bet against the Heat. The sportsbook stands to lose all those bets. For those who bet on the heat, they're sorta cheated, having made their bets assuming Shaq would play.
> 
> ...


I understand the theory behind holding the line and establishing a new line, but you are looking at it from a situation where it would be beneficial to the house.

Using my pick of the week as an example, I placed the wager on GS using the original pre-trade line. Why would the house want me to cancel my side of the bet? They should establish a new line to ensure equal action on both sides.

One would think that all the action would be against GS if people could get their bets in before the line was pulled. As such, they would want to encourage as many people to bet on GS as possible. Allowing me to cancel my bet on GS would not aid in this.


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> I understand the theory behind holding the line and establishing a new line, but you are looking at it from a situation where it would be beneficial to the house.
> 
> Using my pick of the week as an example, I placed the wager on GS using the original pre-trade line. Why would the house want me to cancel my side of the bet? They should establish a new line to ensure equal action on both sides.
> 
> One would think that all the action would be against GS if people could get their bets in before the line was pulled. As such, they would want to encourage as many people to bet on GS as possible. Allowing me to cancel my bet on GS would not aid in this.


I'm pretty sure the appeal of sportsbook betting is that the bettor has a belief in a system (like yours) or knowledge about the teams. It's a gamble, sure, but not a lottery kind of thing (buy a ticket, lucky if you win). It becomes a lottery kind of thing if you bet on a team and it's no longer the same proposition (that's what the bets are called, propositions).

I'm pretty sure that in baseball betting, the bets are off if a team changes its announced starting pitcher.

FWIW


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> I'm pretty sure the appeal of sportsbook betting is that the bettor has a belief in a system (like yours) or knowledge about the teams. It's a gamble, sure, but not a lottery kind of thing (buy a ticket, lucky if you win). It becomes a lottery kind of thing if you bet on a team and it's no longer the same proposition (that's what the bets are called, propositions).
> 
> I'm pretty sure that in baseball betting, the bets are off if a team changes its announced starting pitcher.
> 
> FWIW


Assuming the UIGA legislature goes through, this is worthwhile information to research. I've only been to Vegas once and was more interested in poker and other table-related activities.


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*1/24 Bet of the Night*

Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Bobcats (+6.5)

I would bet on the *Charlotte Bobcats* plus the 6.5

This is the only play I have on for the evening.

--------------------

Last week, Golden State lost by 6 covering the spread.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 5-2-1

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

OK, did some research.

They take the games off the board due to injuries. They are just "not accepting new bets."

For baseball and horseracing they do scratch the bets in case of injury (or a horse is scratched).

Tho I think it would be fair for you to warn people not to take your bet (or call "I want to cancel it and have it not count on the record") as long as the game is on the board.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *1/24 Bet of the Night*
> 
> Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Bobcats (+6.5)
> 
> ...


It's Bobcats +7 right now (checked online), so it's even more attractive.
FWIW


----------



## rwj333 (Aug 10, 2002)

Looks like it was a bad bet.


----------



## ExtremeBrigs (Jul 20, 2006)

The latest on the Pau Gasol rumors:

My sources tonight told me that if this deal does go down, the pieces leaving Chicago will be Luol Deng, P.J. Brown, and... Tyrus Thomas. No pick. Not sure who we'd be getting back, but that's the latest. More as I get it.


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

rwj333 said:


> Looks like it was a bad bet.


Yep, Charlotte lost by 11. Although they were only down 6 with about 2 minutes left to play. Late fouling trying to get back into the game pushed them down because they couldn't convert the points back on the offensive end.

This is the frustrating part of betting on basketball and why many people there is no money to be made. This is another reason I chose only to make plays when I see 3.5 or more points of edge vs. my forecast and the actual line.


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

you living in your car after that pick?


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> you living in your car after that pick?


:lol: 

I am extremely conservative in my wagering. I only bet 1% of what my bankroll is at to start the season. More conventional wisdom is in the 1/20 - 1/30 range. However, I think I would be tempted to lower my wagers if on a really bad streak, which contradicts the philosophy.


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> :lol:
> 
> I am extremely conservative in my wagering. I only bet 1% of what my bankroll is at to start the season. More conventional wisdom is in the 1/20 - 1/30 range. However, I think I would be tempted to lower my wagers if on a really bad streak, which contradicts the philosophy.


Beats losing the car, too


----------



## theanimal23 (Mar 2, 2005)

ExtremeBrigs said:


> The latest on the Pau Gasol rumors:
> 
> My sources tonight told me that if this deal does go down, the pieces leaving Chicago will be Luol Deng, P.J. Brown, and... Tyrus Thomas. No pick. Not sure who we'd be getting back, but that's the latest. More as I get it.



How close is the deal to being done?

Edit: If we are losing Tyrus, I'm hoping we get back Mike Miller, Hakim Warrick, or A. Johnson. While I'd love to get back Gay, it's not gonna happen. Not a chance. If Pax pulled that off, I'd would be astonished and very content with the trade.


----------



## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

ExtremeBrigs said:


> The latest on the Pau Gasol rumors:
> 
> My sources tonight told me that if this deal does go down, the pieces leaving Chicago will be Luol Deng, P.J. Brown, and... Tyrus Thomas. No pick. Not sure who we'd be getting back, but that's the latest. More as I get it.


Works under Trade Checker and I'd be in favor of accepting this deal, as is. Not sure if Memphis would bite though. Noch/Khryapa/Thabo would/could be our three-headed monster to replace Deng's production.


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 1/30:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	9.95 - 
02	SAS	7.28 - 
03	HOU	6.31 1 
04	DAL	5.61 (1)
05	CHI	4.48 - 
06 UTA	2.20 - 
07	LAL	2.10 1 
08	ORL	1.97 (1)
09	DET	1.93 - 
10	NJN	1.03 1 
11	CLE	0.40 1 
12	MIN	0.38 1 
13	DEN	0.22 (3)
14	WAS	-0.28 1 
15	GSW	-0.54 (1)
16	IND	-0.68 1 
17	LAC	-0.80 (1)
18	NYK	-1.27 2 
19	TOR	-1.59 (1)
20	MIA	-1.73 2 
21	BOS	-1.77 (2)
22	SAC	-2.56 1 
23	NOH	-2.66 2 
24	SEA	-2.73 (3)
25	MIL	-3.71 (1)
26	MEM	-4.27 2 
27	CHA	-4.61 (1)
28	POR	-4.86 (1)
29	ATL	-4.98 - 
30	PHI	-5.09 - 


*Surging*
NYK 2
MIA 2
NOH 2
MEM 2


*Slumping*
SEA (3)
DEN (3)
BOS (2)
8 teams tied @ (1)


----------



## SoCalfan21 (Jul 19, 2004)

thats relistic IMO


----------



## Good Hope (Nov 27, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> As of games completed 1/30:
> 
> *Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
> 01	PHO	9.95 -
> ...


Any insight as to why Washington is so low compared to their record in your system?


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*1/31 Bet of the Night*

New York Knicks @ Charlotte Bobcats (-3.5)

I would bet on the *New York Knicks* plus the 3.5

This is the only play I have on for the evening at this moment. A couple of game time decision players might open up a couple of other possibilities.

--------------------

Last week, Charlotte lost by 11 not covering the spread.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 5-3-1

_NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Good Hope said:


> Any insight as to why Washington is so low compared to their record in your system?


Remember, my rating is an offensive vs. defensive efficiency measure.

Looking at FG%, Washington is only an average team shooting the ball. They are also in the bottom third in opponents FG%.

Really, the only area they stand out in is TO committed. This is extremely important from an efficiency standpoint, but only seems to balance out the negatives instead of contributing positively.

I'm also not sure if they have a lot of blowout wins contributing to their ppg differential, but I do discount garbage time stats.


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *1/31 Bet of the Night*
> 
> _NOTE: Remember, early recommendations often have more variance_


Why would early recommendations have more variance using your system?


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> *1/31 Bet of the Night*
> 
> New York Knicks @ Charlotte Bobcats (-3.5)
> 
> ...


Gonna have to sell the car after that pick?

Living under the underpass is no fun, unless it's hawaii


----------



## Cocoa Rice Krispies (Oct 10, 2004)

DaBullz said:


> Gonna have to sell the car after that pick?


Why would he have to sell his car? It says right on the very first post of the thread that he expects his system to work over time and not necessarily for a single game. As such, it's implied that one would never bet a large sum on a single game.


----------



## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Cocoa Rice Krispies said:


> Why would he have to sell his car? It says right on the very first post of the thread that he expects his system to work over time and not necessarily for a single game. As such, it's implied that one would never bet a large sum on a single game.


It was a joke.

I think he gets it.


----------



## Cocoa Rice Krispies (Oct 10, 2004)

DaBullz said:


> It was a joke.


Clearly, and no doubt he's aware of that too. I just don't understand why you'd say it after just a loss or two. He's not even under .500 yet. :cheers:


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Why would early recommendations have more variance using your system?


I start making plays after I have 10 games worth of regular season data. A team playing streakily well or poorly over its first 10-games would have a significant impact on a team's efficiency early in the season than later. Whether that trend will continue is anyone's guess. One would think that this uncertainty would also priced into the line.

After 10 games, did you expect Utah to keep up with its 9-1 record? Did you expect Dallas to continue with its 6-4 record especially after a four game losing streak to start the season? Maybe, maybe not. But Utah played some really good basketball over that 10-game stretch and Dallas played very poorly over its 10-game stretch. Now we're more than halfway through the season and things are evening themselves out. Sure, there are some overvalued and undervalued teams still out there.

I generate roughly 50% of my bets during games 10-35 of the season, resulting in a 57.3% win%. I generate roughly the other 50% of my bets during games 35-82, winning at a 64.1% clip. I make plays early in the season because I believe it to be profitable, not because I am trying to maximize my win%. I often find my line vs. the actual line often has 7 or 8 point variances early in the season. Now, I haven't seen more than about 4.5 points of edge in the past three weeks. Oddsmakers try to get equal action on both sides of the line. My system is devised to try and find inefficiencies between what they want and what I want.


----------



## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> Gonna have to sell the car after that pick?
> 
> Living under the underpass is no fun, unless it's hawaii


I didn't have to sell the car quite yet, but I couldn't afford gas money to make it to work today.


----------



## ScottMay (Jun 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> I start making plays after I have 10 games worth of regular season data. A team playing streakily well or poorly over its first 10-games would have a significant impact on a team's efficiency early in the season than later. Whether that trend will continue is anyone's guess. One would think that this uncertainty would also priced into the line.
> 
> After 10 games, did you expect Utah to keep up with its 9-1 record? Did you expect Dallas to continue with its 6-4 record especially after a four game losing streak to start the season? Maybe, maybe not. But Utah played some really good basketball over that 10-game stretch and Dallas played very poorly over its 10-game stretch. Now we're more than halfway through the season and things are evening themselves out. Sure, there are some overvalued and undervalued teams still out there.
> 
> I generate roughly 50% of my bets during games 10-35 of the season, resulting in a 57.3% win%. I generate roughly the other 50% of my bets during games 35-82, winning at a 64.1% clip. I make plays early in the season because I believe it to be profitable, not because I am trying to maximize my win%. I often find my line vs. the actual line often has 7 or 8 point variances early in the season. Now, I haven't seen more than about 4.5 points of edge in the past three weeks. Oddsmakers try to get equal action on both sides of the line. My system is devised to try and find inefficiencies between what they want and what I want.


Rhyder, do you factor in historical or other non-statistical factors into your bets? 

For example, I was looking for some scores while driving home last night and ended up listening to the Knicks' postgame show. While the numbers may have suggested the Knicks were a good bet vs. the Bobcats, history would not -- the Knicks are 1-4 in Charlotte lifetime, and the four losses were all by a wide margin. And I think Charlotte is at least .500 in the games at MSG.

I'm just curious. It seems like every NBA team has at least one "nemesis" where you can basically throw the numbers out the window.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> Rhyder, do you factor in historical or other non-statistical factors into your bets?
> 
> For example, I was looking for some scores while driving home last night and ended up listening to the Knicks' postgame show. While the numbers may have suggested the Knicks were a good bet vs. the Bobcats, history would not -- the Knicks are 1-4 in Charlotte lifetime, and the four losses were all by a wide margin. And I think Charlotte is at least .500 in the games at MSG.
> 
> I'm just curious. It seems like every NBA team has at least one "nemesis" where you can basically throw the numbers out the window.


These types of arguments in sports are widely accepted, but I believe them to have zero predictive power. Basically, who cares if the Knicks are 1-4 in Charlotte lifetime? New York and Charlotte each had different players on the teams in 05 and 06. Why should what the end result of a '05 Knick vs. Bobcat games reflect what I expect now to happen in '07?

Why should the fact that a team is 7-0 at home when the temperature is less than 29.44 degrees and at least two of the starters had a Ben Gordon energy drink before the game indicate what I expect to happen the next game. Sounds silly? Sure, but it's taking that same line of thinking and making it more general.

It's called backfitting. Looking at a small number of data points and trying to make a trend out of those by making up a set of conditions. It sounds smart because the criteria you are using as your conditions are highly recognizable:

*Home vs. Away* -- This does have an effect on the outcome of the game, and is believed to be in the 3.0-3.5 point range in the current era of basketball. However, saying a team is 9-0 at home doesn't mean you expect them to win at a 100% rate any time it meets with your other conditions.

*Wins vs. Losses* -- Should a 1-0 record winning by 1 point indicate I will always win? What about 4-0 winning by 1 point 7-0 winning by 1. I take the team that is 5-2 with five blowout wins and two 1-point losses any day of the week even though 7-0 is greater than 5-2. See how wins and losses are misleading?

*Below Freezing vs. Above* -- Why is 32 degrees so significant? Why not 29.44 as I listed in my example?

Very smart people are doing the same thing in the financial markets right now. People are comparing this cycle of rising interest rates to other periods in the past. The general sentiment is that the economy is poor because the economy has been historically poor in a period of rising interest rates. Instead of looking at the good economic numbers across the board as a sign the economy is strong, they view it as inflation risks are high. "The Fed NEEDS to lower interest rates by 25bps" is also another common argument. Why analysts (i.e. non-economists) think they know how to control inflation better than the Fed is beyond me.

People got on this kick that the economy is poor because we are in a period of rising interest rates, and all their future opinions seem to relate back to this hypothesis. The major difference between this and those other periods, is never has a cycle of rising interest rates ever started so low. Even though the Fed was raising rates, it was still in a stimulatory range. Yet people think rising rates = bad economy, no matter what other set of circumstances exist around it.

Basically, try to find a simple solution to a complex problem. Just because you use algebra in calculus does not mean you can do calculus solely doing algebra.

Why should the fact that a team is 7-0 at home when the temperature is less than 29.44 degrees and at least two of the starters had a Ben Gordon energy drink before the game indicate what I expect to happen the next game? Same line of reasoning.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

ScottMay said:


> Rhyder, do you factor in historical or other non-statistical factors into your bets?
> 
> For example, I was looking for some scores while driving home last night and ended up listening to the Knicks' postgame show. While the numbers may have suggested the Knicks were a good bet vs. the Bobcats, history would not -- the Knicks are 1-4 in Charlotte lifetime, and the four losses were all by a wide margin. And I think Charlotte is at least .500 in the games at MSG.
> 
> I'm just curious. It seems like every NBA team has at least one "nemesis" where you can basically throw the numbers out the window.


To respond to more the intent of your post, I feel that certain teams do and do not match up well with each other. My model does not take that into account because there aren't enough data points developed during the season (where players remain constant) to analyze between two teams. New season = new player improvements, players, and roster rotations.

Having said that, even if I believe something might not be attractive from a matchup perspective, I do not sway from the model recommendation. The easiest way to ruin a operating hypothesis, as I believe I have done, is for human intervention. If you want to add something new, the best way to do that is start over with the new hypothesis. Constantly adding new variables to a working hypothesis could also be backfitting if you aren't careful.

I was not aware of the Knicks are 1-4 in their lifetime at Charlotte stat. This could be one of the reasons my model picked out the game. If oddsmakers know this and the general public knows this, I think they are likely to move the line Charlotte's way to keep the action even.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 2/7:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	9.71 - 
02	SAS	7.39 - 
03	HOU	6.41 - 
04	DAL	5.16 - 
05	CHI	4.02 - 
06	DET	2.62 3 
07	LAL	2.51 - 
08	ORL	2.32 - 
09	UTA	2.12 (3)
10	CLE	0.79 1 
11	MIN	0.57 1 
12	NJN	0.19 (2)
13	DEN	0.17 - 
14	MIA	-0.11 6 
15	TOR	-0.53 4 
16	IND	-0.86 - 
17	NYK	-1.14 1 
18	GSW	-1.16 (3)
19	LAC	-1.21 (2)
20	WAS	-1.52 (6)
21	SAC	-2.12 1 
22	NOH	-2.46 1 
23	BOS	-2.54 (2)
24	SEA	-2.69 - 
25	MIL	-4.27 - 
26	MEM	-4.29 - 
27	PHI	-4.30 3 
28	CHA	-4.56 (1)
29	ATL	-4.66 - 
30	POR	-4.81 (2)


*Surging*
MIA 6
TOR 4
DET 3
PHI 3


*Slumping*
WAS (6)
GS (3)
UTA (3)
4 teams tied @ (2)


NOTE: Even though Utah is listed as one of the slumping teams, they really haven't changed much vs. last week in their rating and is more of a result of teams closely behind them playing better. Washington and Golden State, have been playing more inefficiently.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*2/8 Bet of the Night*

Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings (-2.0)

I would bet on the *Chicago Bulls* plus the 2.0

This is the only play I have on for the evening.

--------------------

Last week, New York lost by 17 not covering the spread.

Weekly Bet of the Night Season Record: 5-4-1


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

ow ow ow ow ow ow OW!


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> ow ow ow ow ow ow OW!


LOL. This was one of my favorite bets in awhile. If only the Bulls played even average offensively.

My overall season win % has been going down in recent weeks as well. 82-62 with 4 pushes, although 2-8 in my last 10. If the season ended today, it would be just under my worst year in terms of win%.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> LOL. This was one of my favorite bets in awhile. If only the Bulls played even average offensively.
> 
> My overall season win % has been going down in recent weeks as well. 82-62 with 4 pushes, although 2-8 in my last 10. If the season ended today, it would be just under my worst year in terms of win%.


If you bet $10,000 on one of the wins and $1 in each of the losses, you'd be fine.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> If you bet $10,000 on one of the wins and $1 in each of the losses, you'd be fine.


:cheer:


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 2/15:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	8.35 - 
02	SAS	7.21 - 
03	DAL	5.84 1 
04	HOU	5.81 (1)
05	CHI	3.20 - 
06	DET	2.93 - 
07	UTA	2.48 2 
08	ORL	2.35 - 
09	LAL	1.64 (2)
10	CLE	1.09 - 
11	MIN	0.49 - 
12	DEN	0.40 1 
13	MIA	0.15 1 
14	NJN	0.11 (2)
15	TOR	-0.20 - 
16	IND	-0.63 - 
17	GSW	-0.77 1 
18	NYK	-1.53 (1)
19	LAC	-1.67 - 
20	NOH	-1.69 2 
21	WAS	-1.88 (1)
22	SAC	-1.88 (1)
23	SEA	-2.28 1 
24	BOS	-2.44 (1)
25	MEM	-4.16 1 
26	CHA	-4.32 2 
27	MIL	-4.39 (2)
28	PHI	-4.48 (1)
29	POR	-4.53 1 
30	ATL	-4.61 (1)


*Surging*
UTA 2
NOH 2
CHA 2
7 teams tied @ 1


*Slumping*
LAL (2)
NJN (2)
MIL (2)
7 teams tied @ (1)

NOTE: Despite no change in rank, Phoenix and Chicago have played pretty poorly over the past week and their rating has taken a hit as a result.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

I do not have a method for handicapping the All Star game, so I'll be picking that up when the regular season resumes.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 3/1:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	8.50 - 
02	SAS	7.88 - 
03	DAL	6.56 - 
04	HOU	5.38 - 
05	CHI	4.02 - 
06	UTA	2.76 1 
07	DET	2.71 (1)
08	LAL	2.28 1 
09	ORL	1.48 (1)
10	CLE	0.94 - 
11	NJN	0.65 3 
12	TOR	0.58 3 
13	MIA	-0.06 - 
14	DEN	-0.18 (2)
15	MIN	-0.35 (4)
16	IND	-1.43 - 
17	SAC	-1.55 5 
18	NYK	-1.65 - 
19	LAC	-1.78 - 
20	GSW	-1.85 (3)
21	SEA	-1.94 2 
22	NOH	-2.12 (2)
23	WAS	-2.16 (2)
24	BOS	-2.80 - 
25	MIL	-3.38 2 
26	POR	-3.55 3 
27	PHI	-4.25 1 
28	MEM	-4.34 (3)
29	CHA	-4.71 (3)
30	ATL	-4.91 - 


*Surging*
SAC 5
NJN 3
TOR 3
POR 3


*Slumping*
MIN (4)
CHA (3)
MEM (3)
GSW (3)


NOTE: Despite Sacramento "surging," all they did was pass a lot of teams close to them in rating. Their own rating only improved by ~1/4 of a point since my last update.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

My free time has virtually been zero, although I was able to throw the update together last evening for you all. I'll see if I can get something together for a pick of the week for you all over the weekend, but don't count on it.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 3/7:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	8.89 - 
02	SAS	8.29 - 
03	DAL	6.63 - 
04	HOU	5.20 - 
05	CHI	3.61 - 
06	UTA	3.55 - 
07	DET	2.18 - 
08	CLE	1.46 2 
09	LAL	1.35 (1)
10	ORL	1.35 (1)
11	MIA	0.90 2 
12	NJN	0.32 (1)
13	TOR	-0.11 (1)
14	DEN	-0.20 - 
15	MIN	-0.69 - 
16	SAC	-1.11 1 
17	GSW	-1.28 3 
18	NYK	-1.63 - 
19	LAC	-1.68 - 
20	WAS	-1.85 3 
21	SEA	-1.87 - 
22	IND	-2.30 (6)
23	NOH	-2.68 (1)
24	MIL	-3.03 1 
25	PHI	-3.39 2 
26	BOS	-3.48 (2)
27	POR	-3.65 (1)
28	MEM	-4.53 - 
29	ATL	-4.78 1 
30	CHA	-5.07 (1)


*Surging*
GSW 3
WAS 3
3 teams tied @ 2


*Slumping*
IND (6)
BOS (2)
7 teams tied @ (1)


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

mini-bump

superdave's bet of the NCAA tournament: *Georgetown -1 vs. OSU*
(I realize this is OT and has little to do with Rhyder's rankings, however I thought I'd extend the olive branch to my fellow action-junkies on this thread)

20 units


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

As of games completed 3/28:

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
1	SAS	8.62 1 
2	PHO	8.38 (1)
3	DAL	6.95 - 
4	HOU	5.76 - 
5	CHI	3.32 - 
6	DET	3.07 1 
7	UTA	2.83 (1)
8	CLE	2.00 - 
9	MIA	0.87 2 
10	ORL	0.78 - 
11	LAL	0.61 (2)
12	NJN	0.40 - 
13	TOR	0.33 - 
14	DEN	0.28 - 
15	LAC	-1.13 4 
16	GSW	-1.26 1 
17	WAS	-1.38 3 
18	MIN	-1.52 (3)
19	NYK	-1.73 (1)
20	SAC	-2.10 (4)
21	SEA	-2.34 - 
22	IND	-2.50 - 
23	NOH	-2.76 - 
24	BOS	-3.15 2 
25	MIL	-3.25 (1)
26	POR	-3.39 1 
27	PHI	-3.70 (2)
28	CHA	-4.22 2 
29	MEM	-4.52 (1)
30	ATL	-4.81 (1)


*Surging*
LAC 4
WAS 3
MIA 2
BOS 2
CHA 2


*Slumping*
SAC (4)
MIN (3)
PHI (2)
LAL (2)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> mini-bump
> 
> superdave's bet of the NCAA tournament: *Georgetown -1 vs. OSU*
> (I realize this is OT and has little to do with Rhyder's rankings, however I thought I'd extend the olive branch to my fellow action-junkies on this thread)
> ...


:biggrin:

So who's your selection? I have Georgetown winning it all, but Georgetown winning over Florida will be much more lucrative for my bracket.

I apologize for the delay in anyone who followed the ratings and for the stoppage in posting my picks. I've barely had time enough to do it myself these last few weeks. My free time has been virtually zero as my wife is 38 weeks pregnant, and I've redone the entire interior of our home.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> :biggrin:
> 
> So who's your selection? I have Georgetown winning it all, but Georgetown winning over Florida will be much more lucrative for my bracket.
> 
> I apologize for the delay in anyone who followed the ratings and for the stoppage in posting my picks. I've barely had time enough to do it myself these last few weeks. My free time has been virtually zero as my wife is 38 weeks pregnant, and I've redone the entire interior of our home.


No worries about the update. Congrats on all the positive goings-on in your life bro.

I actually feel a little better about my wager knowing you've put a little weight behind Georgetown as well  I didn't make any picks this year nor did I even fill out a tournament bracket. I've been going through some life changes as well (new apartment, job hiring, g/f drama, etc.) which has kind of precluded me from putting much time into the NCAA's much less sports betting post-football. I did however get a call from 'my guy' so I felt the need to post. Heh.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> No worries about the update. Congrats on all the positive goings-on in your life bro.
> 
> I actually feel a little better about my wager knowing you've put a little weight behind Georgetown as well  I didn't make any picks this year nor did I even fill out a tournament bracket. I've been going through some life changes as well (new apartment, job hiring, g/f drama, etc.) which has kind of precluded me from putting much time into the NCAA's much less sports betting post-football. I did however get a call from 'my guy' so I felt the need to post. Heh.


I don't follow the NCAA much at all, and the games I catch pre-tournament time are always in the interest of scouting prospective NBA players. When I watch a non-tournament game, I pick one player to watch, and then watch him and only him every minute he is in the game.

My NBA methods do not apply to college, but I do have a crude collegiate rating system (nothing fancy, just something that might give me an opinion if I'm leaning one way or another). I always pick what I feel is the most undervalued top team as my champion (Georgetown this year, UCLA last year).

I don't know if it's blind luck or not, but should Georgetown win it all, I will finish in the money in a 300-entry confidence bracket the second season in a row.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

Final Regular Season Rankings

*Rank, Team, Rating, +/- in Rank*
01	PHO	8.27 1 
02	SAS	8.08 (1)
03	DAL	6.13 - 
04	HOU	5.01 - 
05	CHI	4.08 - 
06	DET	2.92 - 
07	CLE	2.30 1 
08	ORL	1.98 2 
09	UTA	1.88 (2)
10	MIA	1.29 (1)
11	DEN	0.96 3 
12	LAL	0.82 (1)
13	NJN	0.79 (1)
14	TOR	0.50 (1)
15	GSW	0.28 1 
16	LAC	-0.75 (1)
17	WAS	-2.18 - 
18	NYK	-2.24 1 
19	NOH	-2.25 4 
20	MIN	-2.43 (2)
21	IND	-2.52 1 
22	SAC	-2.59 (2)
23	SEA	-2.85 (2)
24	PHI	-3.21 3 
25	BOS	-3.39 (1)
26	CHA	-3.43 2 
27	MIL	-3.63 (2)
28	POR	-4.13 (2)
29	MEM	-4.58 - 
30	ATL	-4.93 - 


I think it is interesting that a lot of teams at the top improved in their rating vs. my last update but still lost positions in terms of rank. Conversely, a lot of the teams at the bottom moved lower in rating, but seemed to do so in quite a hurry. Part of this is giving guys a look and resting normal starters with more minor injuries. However, it seems that it gives credit to the idea that teams were actively tanking trying to pick up more ping pong balls.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

*Eastern Conference Playoff Seeding*
06 DET 2.92
07 CLE 2.30
14 TOR 0.50
10 MIA 1.29
05 CHI 4.08
13 NJN 0.79
17 WAS -2.18
08 ORL 1.98
----------
18 NYK -2.24
21 IND -2.52
24 PHI -3.21
25 BOS -3.39
26 CHA -3.43
27 MIL -3.63
30 ATL -4.93


*Western Conference Playoff Seeding*
03 DAL 6.13
01 PHO 8.27
02 SAS 8.08
09 UTA 1.88
04 HOU 5.01
11 DEN 0.96
12 LAL 0.82
15 GSW 0.28
----------
16 LAC -0.75
19 NOH -2.25
20 MIN -2.43
22 SAC -2.59
23 SEA -2.85
28 POR -4.13
29 MEM -4.58


The worst ranked team (by my system) to make the playoffs was the 17th ranked team Washington. This means my 16th ranked Clippers might have missed out by being in the wrong conference, but it is tough to argue either way.

The West seems to line up pretty well with how good teams are vs. how many wins their team achieved over the course of the season. The East is a little more out of whack. A 14th ranked team earned the #3 seed (Toronto) while an 8th ranked team earned the #8 seed (Orlando). Miami's low rating is a little more understandable considering all of the injuries they endured over the course of the regular season.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

The line has been shaved down to Bulls as 2 point favorites tonight.

What say you, Rhyder? 

(Thinking logically as a non-partisan fan, you have to like the best home record in the EC as a two-point favorites even though Detroit has looked dominant in the first two games)


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> The line has been shaved down to Bulls as 2 point favorites tonight.
> 
> What say you, Rhyder?
> 
> (Thinking logically as a non-partisan fan, you have to like the best home record in the EC as a two-point favorites even though Detroit has looked dominant in the first two games)


My line: Detroit @ Chicago (-4.5)

My money is on the Bulls for tonight, although I only bet half of what I normally do as a system wager as I don't have as much edge as I would like.


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## DaBullz (Jul 15, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> My line: Detroit @ Chicago (-4.5)
> 
> My money is on the Bulls for tonight, although I only bet half of what I normally do as a system wager as I don't have as much edge as I would like.


So Bulls -2 (current line, if not off the board) would be enticing to you?


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> My line: Detroit @ Chicago (-4.5)
> My money is on the Bulls for tonight, although I only bet half of what I normally do as a system wager as I don't have as much edge as I would like.


I like the line as well, so I'm kicking around the idea of dropping a few units on it.

Just hating the individual matchups though so not exactly enthusiastic about it.....


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

DaBullz said:


> So Bulls -2 (current line, if not off the board) would be enticing to you?


Attractive yes, but not a full play. I have ~61% win rate on games where I see more than 3.5 points of edge. In the 2-3.5 range, my win rate is a bit above 54%.


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## superdave (Jul 16, 2002)

Rhyder said:


> Attractive yes, but not a full play. I have ~61% win rate on games where I see more than 3.5 points of edge. In the 2-3.5 range, my win rate is a bit above 54%.


That's remarkable man. Depending on the juice, you're actually making money over the long term on your 3.5 point edge. Not many people can boast that type of win rate.

I was having a fantastic year (+35 units) until the G-town OSU Final Four game. Haven't bet since. 50/50 about tonight.


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## Rhyder (Jul 15, 2002)

superdave said:


> That's remarkable man. Depending on the juice, you're actually making money over the long term on your 3.5 point edge. Not many people can boast that type of win rate.
> 
> I was having a fantastic year (+35 units) until the G-town OSU Final Four game. Haven't bet since. 50/50 about tonight.


If you're 50/50, you shouldn't be betting. :biggrin:


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