# Pavel not top 10?



## SkywalkerAC (Sep 20, 2002)

I was under the impression that Pavel has impressed in recent weeks? Workouts have to count for something, especially with big men. Why does no one seem to see this guy as a top 10 pick when he has not only shown he isn't a stiff at 7'4, he actually displayed natural skill? nbadraft has him at 12 and draftcity has him at 17. I haven't heard too much of his workouts this year, anyone care to fill me in?

Diop went #8 a few seasons ago, was he really the better prospect or is this draft just that deep? I don't think the Raptors should pass up Pavel at this same draft position. Is it just me or is anyone else excited about this young center?

With size being such a commodity in this league, is Josh Childress really selected over Pavel? I'm curious to see.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Why didn't he avg. more than 2 points a game? 

He is all hype IMO. However, if you are drafting him to just be a space eater then he would be a good pick. Although at No. 8, I would be pissed if that's all I got.


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## MJG (Jun 29, 2003)

The impression I've gotten is that almost all of the rush of hype Pavel got was created by Chad Ford. People took it to heart, and suddenly he was looking like a top five pick. A few days later, that died down, and he dropped in the the 10-20 range where a lot of people had him pre-Ford.


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

first of all i wouldnt be concerned over lack of stats where he played this year, there could be several reasons for that,most obvious that he's still a teenager. i dont know where he will be picked but if you cant gamble on a 7-3 players thats skilled then i guess you dont gamble on anyone.


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## MongolianDeathCloud (Feb 27, 2004)

It's awesome.

I want Goldenstate to take him with the 11th, so this is perfect timing for the hype to fizzle.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

> i dont know where he will be picked but if you cant gamble on a 7-3 players thats skilled then i guess you dont gamble on anyone.


You mean like the teams that gambled on

Diop @ #8?

Foyle @ #8?

Mihm @ #7?

Pryzbilla @ #9?

Reeves @ #6?

Montross @ #9?

Bradley @ #2?

Longley @ #7?

Spencer @ #6?

King @ #6?

Reid @ #5?

I wouldn't touch Pavel Podkolzine with a lottery pick, mid teens to early twenties is where he SHOULD go, though if it was me I wouldn't take him.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

BTW, Pavel measured in at over 7'3 w/o shoes and 7'5 w/ shoes @ Chicago.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Kmurph</b>!
> 
> 
> You mean like the teams that gambled on
> ...


Kmurph just proved my point for me.


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## AZwildcats4 (Feb 9, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>MJG</b>!
> The impression I've gotten is that almost all of the rush of hype Pavel got was created by Chad Ford. People took it to heart, and suddenly he was looking like a top five pick. A few days later, that died down, and he dropped in the the 10-20 range where a lot of people had him pre-Ford.


Chad Ford does not have that kind of power.


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## RP McMurphy (Jul 17, 2003)

Poor Big Country Reeves gets so much hate. He was worth his pick and then some. A 16 and 8 center who was one of the best defenders of Shaq I've ever seen.

The rest of those project centers were all crap and I wouldn't want to waste a lottery pick on Pavel "can't get off the bench in Italy" Podkolzine for that reason.


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## Rodzilla (Mar 11, 2003)

I don't know. I think some lottery team will take a risk on him. He's 7'5, strong, good work ethic, can shoot, and can move fairly well. Will it take time for him to develop?? Of course. HOwever, I think he is 89488484 times the prospect of FRedric Weis, who was either the 14th or 15th pick back in 99.


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## rainman (Jul 15, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Kmurph</b>!
> 
> 
> You mean like the teams that gambled on
> ...


i hope you didnt waste too much time finding those draft positions, they mean absolutely nothing, the guy could be the next yao ming in 3 years so its all relevant. as for where he will be drafted, the thread said top 10, there is a big differance between taking him in the top 3 as opposed to 7-10.


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## freakofnature (Mar 30, 2003)

I don't see the lottery teams that are in dire need of help "taking a chance" on this guy. Then again, aren't all draft picks "chances?"


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## AZwildcats4 (Feb 9, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>ArtestFan</b>!
> Pavel "can't get off the bench in Italy"


As most of you know, a lot of good young players who deserve minutes ride the bench in Europe. Seniority means a lot there. And why would his coach waste any time trying to develop him when he knows he going to be drafted?

Also going back and listing all the big men that never panned out shouldn't effect your opinion on Pavel. None of those guys had anywhere near the potential he has. All the other 7'3 plus centers have lacked either strength or athleticism or often both. Pavel has all those things.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

> i hope you didnt waste too much time finding those draft positions, they mean absolutely nothing, the guy could be the next yao ming in 3 years so its all relevant. as for where he will be drafted, the thread said top 10, there is a big differance between taking him in the top 3 as opposed to 7-10.


You do realize that there has NEVER (in the modern age (1980+)...and probably ever I was just to lazy to go back and look) been a "Yao Ming\Franchise" type of center that has been picked outside of the top 3 or so picks? You knew that didn't you? So I am telling you that you are dreaming if you think Pavel is going to be a future "franchise" center, & there isn't ANY way he is going before Howard\Okafor\Deng\Livingston. NONE

But by all means, keep dreaming that THIS IS THE YEAR, that these players (Pavel, Ramos, Swift, etc) will break that trend..uh huh...sure they will. 

Pavel has BUST written all over him, but some of you have visions of glory in your eyes, thinking this guy can transform himself into a Yao type of player, those are the kinds of visions that cause nothing but regret later on. For GM's, for fans of franchises that draft Pervis Eliison #1, or Shawn Bradley #2, or Michael Olowokandi #1, or (it pains me to say this as a POR fan) Sam Bowie #2. You don't think that EVERY ONE of those teams would want their pick back? I'm not saying that teams won't stop reaching for centers, b\c they won't. But I guarantee you that the smart GM's will and DO.

FIVE YEARS...that is how long on average it will take a guy like Pavel to play even MEANINGFUL minutes in the NBA (average 20+min), and you'll be LUCKY if he is even a decent center. I hope some lottery team DOES take Pavel, I really do, it just means one more BETTER player drops for POR to choose from.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

> None of those guys had anywhere near the potential he has.


Uh huh...how many GM's have told themselves that one before....I think that "list" gives you a small idea, and it's but a small representation. 

Sure...Pavel has more potential than all of those centers...sure he does...


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## RP McMurphy (Jul 17, 2003)

Sing it Kmurph. You're on a roll.


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## patticus (Jan 4, 2004)

agreed on country.

very legit offensive threat before he got fat. top 5 center potential easily for parts of seasons he showed us


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## SkywalkerAC (Sep 20, 2002)

great workouts or not? aren't there any reports out there? isn't he being tested against other prospects? or is he being hidden from teams? what's the deal with this kid?

teams have proven to be willing to wait on prospects, especially young big man prospects, in the past. those with the athleticism and innate skill tend to do well. defense can be a struggle but it's not an unteachable art. 

place pavel in previous drafts and where does he go? does he get selected above marcus fizer? does he go ahead of chris mihm? these players might be scouted more accurately but their ceilings as players seem so much less than that of the big ruskie. 

maybe i'm wrong but even the useless giants like bradley and muresan (sp?) were effective NBA centers in their own right (ie capable of starting in their day). Pavel, with good mechanics, should develop some unstoppable shots. His footwork will improve by leaps and bounds (i'm sure). He's going to get stronger if he has the desire to do so. He seems like a guy that teammates and fans will buy into and with his personality i expect him to reciprocate. 

Even as a space eater that can make jumpshots, Pavel is a starting center for some NBA teams (although he will likely get dominated in the early going), including the raptors at the moment. 

What attributes does he possess that makes him an automatic bust of a center? Is it simply that he's a big center and we all like making generalizations? I have heard reports of his inexperience limiting his effectiveness on the court but with the right coaching i don't see why he has no chance of becoming a good starting center.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

First of all, I'll add Tsakalidis to the list of hyped-up big men who were supposed to be difference-makers entering the draft but who quickly demonstrated a minimal impact and a pretty flat learning curve. (He was projected as lottery, even top 5, before buy-out problems dropped him into Phoenix's lap late in the first round.)

I haven't seen Pavel play, so I'm the first to admit that my opinion about his NBA future doesn't count for much. 

I will say I don't expect much out of him, agreeing emphatically with the reminder above that top-drawer center are locks for the first three picks. It's been that way for a long time, and I can't think of an exception in the modern NBA. So if Pavel peaks at 20+ ppg, 10+ rpg, and 3+ bpg, I'll eat my shoe.

But...there have been a few notable big men who entered the league with far less hype than he's gotten, and established themselves as decent second-tier post men (e.g., Ilgauskas, Muresan, Duckworth). Let's say he even plateaus as a third-tier kind of center, like Nesterovic or Blount or Dalembert (I think this is most likely). Given the problems that many teams have in putting a legitimate presence in the paint (a couple of franchises in Florida come to mind), I can see drafting a big man with promise and a good attitude above a swing man with superior skills.

Having said all that, I'd hate to see any of my favorite teams in need of an upgrade at the "true center" position (Denver, Washington, Minnesota, possibly Boston) take the big man without seeing a few consistently impressive workouts. And I'd be very surprised to see him go before #15.

By the way, the biggest "Next Great Big Man" belly flop of all time, by my memory, was Eric Ginggold. Anyone remember him? This was about 10 years ago...some hulking 7'4" kid who had sailed under the radar of scouts all the way through college (dinky school, late starter, late bloomer, late everything) started to get promoted heavily by an agent. Ginggold supposedly had loads of potential; no one had seen this combination of athleticism, size, agility, and determination since Ralph Sampson. He held a couple of private workouts, and the Knicks and other teams came away raving guardedly. Sports Illustrated did a big article on the kid. People talked lottery, his agent talked #1 pick. The draft came...and nobody took him. If there had been a 47th round, maaaaybe someone would have taken a flyer on him. Evidently everyone and their uncle's dog had been bluffing--except, presumably, for poor Eric Ginggold. No idea what happened to him. Assistant manager at a used car dealership? Leading rebounder in the Burkina Faso league?

So, my **** detector starts a low buzz when an enormous physical specimen starts getting talked up to the moon and back on the basis of some evidence that the general public (at least in this country) has no access to. 

I don't think he's a fraud, by any means. But I strongly suspect that at best he's a third-tier center, and even that's a long-term gamble. I'd feel much more comfortable with any of my various hometown teams that give in to the big man itch on June 24th taking David Harrison. 

Plenty of warts in Harrison's game and attitude, but they're on display for everyone to see and judge rationally. He may go late lottery, like Przybilla and Montross. It's conceivable he'll drop into the second round, like Todd MacCulloch (who was better than a lot of people thought he'd be). If he's really lucky, he might even go undrafted...like Brad Miller.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>SkywalkerAC</b>!
> great workouts or not? aren't there any reports out there? isn't he being tested against other prospects? or is he being hidden from teams? what's the deal with this kid?
> 
> teams have proven to be willing to wait on prospects, especially young big man prospects, in the past. those with the athleticism and innate skill tend to do well. defense can be a struggle but it's not an unteachable art.
> ...


You make some good points and ask some good questions. If he's put on display in a string of workouts, and continues to impress people with his raw potential despite little experience or refined skill, I'd say he should go as high as late lottery. If the majority of us know as little about him a week from now as we know today, I'll assume that he's being kept under wraps for the wrong reasons and he should fall into the twenties where a team like Utah with multiple picks can afford to take a chance on his long-term development.


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## AZwildcats4 (Feb 9, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>Kmurph</b>!
> 
> 
> Uh huh...how many GM's have told themselves that one before....I think that "list" gives you a small idea, and it's but a small representation.
> ...


Name one player on your list that had Pavel's combination of size, youth, strength, and athleticism. He is a completely different player than Bradley, Reeves, Mihm, Diop, or even Yao. Like Skywalker said people just making generalizations because he's 7'3 plus. Saying a player you have never seen play has "bust written all over him" is ridiculous.


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## jokeaward (May 22, 2003)

Kaman wasn't that bad. If Pavel's a 7'5" Andrew Declerq/Kaman, isn't that decent?

Some of my personal favorite big men busts are Shawn Respert and picks 9-12 in 1996: Samaki Walker, Eric Dampier, Todd Fuller, and Vitaly "The Ukraine Train" Potapenko. Then Kobe went.

There are tons of busts, steals, and reasonable picks in NBA history. Ever heard of Brad Miller, Manu Ginobili, Rashard Lewis, Gilbert Arenas, and Ben Wallace? All second round or undrafted.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>jokeaward</b>!
> Kaman wasn't that bad. If Pavel's a 7'5" Andrew Declerq/Kaman, isn't that decent?
> 
> Some of my personal favorite big men busts are Shawn Respert and picks 9-12 in 1996: Samaki Walker, Eric Dampier, Todd Fuller, and Vitaly "The Ukraine Train" Potapenko. Then Kobe went.
> ...


I agree with you...except that Shawn Respert was a shooting guard. He was maybe 6'2", possibly less, who was drafting in the lottery with the hope that he would make it at the point. Didn't last long. He could stroke it, but otherwise wasn't long-term NBA material.


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## Tom (Jul 15, 2002)

Pavel could with some work, take Big Jake's place as the Next Shaq stopper


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## Ballscientist (Nov 11, 2002)

read my thread " I take Pavel over Okafor."

read my signture for today's news.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

> place pavel in previous drafts and where does he go? does he get selected above marcus fizer? does he go ahead of chris mihm? these players might be scouted more accurately but their ceilings as players seem so much less than that of the big ruskie.


Does it matter WHERE Pavel gets drafted? In the end it is the RESULTS that matter most. 



> maybe i'm wrong but even the useless giants like bradley and muresan (sp?) were effective NBA centers in their own right (ie capable of starting in their day).


Is that the worth of a #2-#12 lottery pick these days? A servicable center. Should a team that selects Pavel @ #7 or #12, be satisfied that in 4-5 years they have themselves a servicable center? I think that is an incredible waste of a lottery pick. I am not saying DON'T draft Pavel. I am saying don't take him with a lottery pick. Drafting a raw prospect in the late teens or later becomes a lot more palatable IMO, as the level of prospect at other postions is a LOT more hit and miss. But at #7 or #12, the team that selects Pavel is taking a HUGE risk, that IMO is quite unecessary to take. Like I said, history CLEARLY shows us that kids like Pavel USUALLY bust out of the league or are nothing more than journeyman types, bouncing from team to team. It is the EXCEPTION of them being a servicable center, and a tremendous rarity for them to be a good starting center and there has NEVER been one you could categorize as a "Franchise" type center. I don't know about you, but that type of result isn't worth a lottery pick.



> Saying a player you have never seen play has "bust written all over him" is ridiculous.


I have seen Pavel before on video, now have I watched him play in person? No I have not, But it doesn't take a genius to look back over previous drafts and see the results they have provided. Pavel would be one of the VERY few exceptions IF he even proved to be a 2nd, or 3rd tier center, and like I have stated before, IMO a 2nd or 3rd tier center (and mind you this is after having groomed him for a minumum of 3-5 years) is nothing to get excited about, especially if you own a lottery pick.



> There are tons of busts, steals, and reasonable picks in NBA history


This is true, but IMO the risk\reward of drafting a kid like Pavel is MUCH greater the lower (ie lottery) you draft him than selecting him later. Not just assuming the risk of Pavel actually meriting his high selection, but also taking the huge risk that the players selected AROUND your pick will end up being much better NBA players. The higher you select Pavel, the better the chance that you passed on a far superior player at another position. 

Can GM's pick a bust in the lottery? Absolutely, it happens all the time, but more often than not you reached for a big guy and passed on a much better player.

Do you think CLE would rather have Sagna Diop (whom they selected at #8) right now? Or the players they missed out on b\c of their selection of him? Guys like Joe Johnson @ #10, Richard Jefferson @ #13, or Zach Randolph @ #17. Could they have missed on thoes guys as well? Maybe... But even the misses (or "servicable" position player) selected after Diop are not all that bad....Rodney White @#9, Kedrick Brown #11, Vlad Radmonovic #12, Troy Murphy @ #14. 

Anyone can pick a bust in the draft, at ANY spot in the draft (even #1), so that is ALWAYS a factor. However, chances are, the LOWER (lottery) you select, the better off you are staying away from center prospects. That is unless you have a top 3 pick and their is a franchise center sitting there. But mid\late lotto? Buyer beware......


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## IAMGREAT (May 22, 2003)

You'd be surprised how much of a frenzy can be caused by Chad Ford's tabloid articles. 

Anyhow the thing that really bothers me about this Pavel is how he plays. I read that his reaction time is extremely slow. That means he'll be worthless. Now I don't know if it's true or not, but if somebody says something like that about a player you have to wonder. Darko said Pavel can barely walk. How many of you guys have seen Pavel play who are suggesting that he should be a lottery pick? Probably none.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Pavel = buyer beware. Like I said earlier. If you are looking for Mark Eaton or some other big clod to stand in the paint, by all means take the guy (who everyone is going to want to dunk on). If you are looking for the next Yao Ming, you are going to be very dissapointed.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

> Pavel = buyer beware


Yeah that basically sums it up. I think I have provided enough reason and done enough analysis on this personally to make the point against drafting Pavel high in the draft. There isn't much more to say about it than that.

The fact, truth, reality, whatever you want to call it is that big centers drafted in the mid\late lotto\heck even early teens, rarely, if ever merit the worth of that pick. That is the bottom line, but it won't stop some fans and GM"s from dreaming that this player is different. Oh well........


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## jokeaward (May 22, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>jericho</b>!
> 
> 
> I agree with you...except that Shawn Respert was a shooting guard. He was maybe 6'2", possibly less, who was drafting in the lottery with the hope that he would make it at the point. Didn't last long. He could stroke it, but otherwise wasn't long-term NBA material.


http://www.sportsstats.com/jazzyj/greats/95/respert.htm

Wow, I almost checked his height. He was just a bust and a non-NBA player, but my mistake.

Kmurph knows his stuff. it'll still be interesting ot see how Pavel fares.


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## Ryoga (Aug 31, 2002)

*Just to put things under the right perspective...*

These are the "goods", "bads" and the "who knows?" of Pavel's, then anyone will have an opinion of where he should be drafted:

*Goods*

 he's tall, he'll be listed as 7-5 in the NBA
 he's big, 300 pounds now and the possibility to become bigger and stronger
 he can move much better than what people would expect from someone his size. How much better? Like an average white athlete 7-8 inches shorter, I'd say. IMO he moves better than Yao, but it's close.
 he can hit a jumpshot out up to the FIBA 3pt line
 he can handle the ball, even if he shouldn't do it in the NBA
 he's coordinated enough to hit a runner or a shot out of the dribble
 he *wants* to be physical and play inside
 he can dominate players his age, and he'd be a freshman next year in the NCAA
 seems a smart guy, speaks VERY well several languages (at least he has a good knowledge of the swear words)

*Bads*

 has no game experience, doesn't really understand the game at this point
 he just started to play basketball
 even if he tries to play inside, he can't use his body properly
 has no inside moves
 not as reactive as other big men, partially because of his lack of understanding of the game
 he's a long term project, he's going to ride the pine for long. How is he going to handle it?
 health concerns, very big men are often very fragile

*Who knows?*
here there's really one big concern: his attitude. This is a player that has to be built almost from scratch. Forget Darko: Darko can play, he needs to mature and adapt his game to the NBA and his life to the US. Pavel really needs to learn the game from the basics. Has he the attitude, the work ethic, the guts to do it in tha NBA? When he's not going to play for at least a couple of years? When everyone will call him a bust (it will happen, because there's no way he'll contribute next year)?

*Conclusions*
When you hear he has potential... we're speaking of the potential to be a really dominat player. Most of his "bads" can easily at least be partially corrected with experience and good coaching. So what will really drive his career is his attitude: consider that he didn't leave a good impression in Varese, he had the rep of a headcase and of a lazy guy. But american scouts seem to blame the Varese coaching staff for his lack of development and motivation, who knows?
To me he has the tools to make GMs and scouts salivate, and if I were convinced that he had the right attitude, the one McHale and West got blown away by their teenage picks, I'd spend even a top pick on him.


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## AZwildcats4 (Feb 9, 2004)

agreed


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## The Mad Viking (Jun 12, 2003)

#27 Sam Dalembert
#19 Jamaal Magloire
#20 Zydrunas Ilgauskas
#18 Theo Ratliff
#28 Greg Ostertag
#23 Ervin Johnson
#29 PJ Brown
#30 Georghe Muresan
#27 Elden Campbell

Pavel will be a better player if he is NOT taken in the lottery...

:laugh:


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## MJG (Jun 29, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>AZwildcats4</b>!
> 
> Chad Ford does not have that kind of power.


I don't see why he doesn't. At this point, pretty much everyone who isn't part of a team's upper management is basing their ideas and projections off of a combination of mock drafts, scouting reports, and news reports. Ford puts out a report talking about how great Pavel looked and how NBA personnel he has spoken to consider him a top-five-pick level player, and everyone not in the know ranks him higher because of it. Some time passes, word starts to spread (again from other news reports) that Pavel isn't nearly as amazing as he had been said to be, and he starts to drop.


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## MongolianDeathCloud (Feb 27, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>The Mad Viking</b>!
> #27 Sam Dalembert
> #19 Jamaal Magloire
> #20 Zydrunas Ilgauskas
> ...


God damn, thank you. I was going to unearth some of these guys because all this crap about centers never being worth the pick beyond the top 3 is simply being naive for the sake of an argument. You can probably add Mehmet Okur to the list, a second rounder. If you're going to include PJ Brown, you might as well add Jermaine O'Neal as he's a PF/C and he was selected with the *17th* pick, and maybe Dirk since he played center for a large portion of this season and he was selected 9th, although admittedly those are stretching the roughly defined parameters of the argument a bit (and obviously these are not players Pavel should be drawing comparisons to).

Of course there are alot of centers who did not workout, but it's not as bad as you think unless you choose to ignore all the countless non-centers picked fairly high that don't workout. Where's Reece Gaines? Or Troy Bell? Jared Jeffries? Dajuan Wagner? Juan Dixon? Eddie Griffin? Kirk Haston? Demarr Johnson? Keyon Dooling? Courtney Alexander? Mateen Cleaves? Trajan Langdon? Late lottery, mid-first picks that are far from living up to their pick status, and only the last 3-4 years worth. 

I'm not going to argue that there are as many busted 1-3 position players drafted as there are bigs, but it's a risk/reward, impact/serviceable, supply/demand type of paradigm that teams are willing to take because the harsh reality of this league is that a decent big man is worth far more the Jarvis Hayes' of the world.


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## AZwildcats4 (Feb 9, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>MongolianDeathCloud</b>!
> Of course there are alot of centers who did not workout, but it's not as bad as you think unless you choose to ignore all the countless non-centers picked fairly high that don't workout. Where's Reece Gaines? Or Troy Bell? Jared Jeffries? Dajuan Wagner? Juan Dixon? Eddie Griffin? Kirk Haston? Demarr Johnson? Keyon Dooling? Courtney Alexander? Mateen Cleaves? Trajan Langdon? Late lottery, mid-first picks that are far from living up to their pick status, and only the last 3-4 years worth.


Very good point. Michael Pietrus, Fred Jones, Ron Mercer, Larry Hughes, Jonathen Bender, Shane Battier, Rodney White, Kedrick Brown...


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## MongolianDeathCloud (Feb 27, 2004)

I realize my last post just focused on late centers, so I'd like to take a look at some of the higher taken centers, mid-late lottery that are shabby and compare them to the other positions that were taken lottery that busted.

2003:
Lottery centers: Chris Kaman, 6th appears to be good.
Other Positions: Appear decent. Too early to tell if any are busts, and this appears to be a well done draft for the most part (which gives me hope for 2004.)

2002: 
Lottery Centers:Yao 1st, Nene 10th(drafted as a PF/C), showing good potential.
Other lottery positions: Skita 5th, Jefferies 11th, busted hard in my book. Other notably high picks that are not impacting the league yet, Jay Williams, Dunleavey, Drew Gooden, Dajuan Wagner.

2001:
Lottery Centers: Kwame, Chandler, and Curry were top 4, and are all showing signs of life but obviously haven't lived up to potential. Diop was 8th.
Other Lottery Positions: Battier, Griffin, White, Kedrick Brown. I'd rather have Diop than all but maybe Battier, as Diop has potential still, and I think it's safe to say the other guys are clearly hovering over bust territory.

2000:
Lottery Centers: Chris Mihm 7th, Joel Pryzbilla 9th.

Other Lottery positions: Darius miles was 3rd and Fizer was 4th, and I like Miles, don't get me wrong but he has n't been 3rd pick status yet. Demarr Johnson was 6th, Dooling was 10th. They are crappy.

I can go on, but my point is that you can bust with any position in the lottery. Sure, teams would like to go back and maybe select Q Rich over Pryzbilla, or Richard Jefferson over Diop, but you can't then go ahead and overlook the teams that would probably rather Dalembert over White, Okur over Kedrick Brown, and Magloirre over Cleaves, Dooling, and Demarr Johnson.

Then you look at the risk reward of the busts -- suppose that Diop, Griffin, White, and Kedrick Brown all lived up to potential -- you can throw some more above average SG/SFs on the bonepile, and on the other hand with a good center you have one of the rarest commodities in the league.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>MongolianDeathCloud</b>!
> 
> 
> God damn, thank you. I was going to unearth some of these guys because all this crap about centers never being worth the pick beyond the top 3 is simply being naive for the sake of an argument.


Well, I can't speak for others, but the specific argument I made earlier in this post isn't that you can't find competent centers beyond the third pick. Just that in the modern NBA any franchise player at the center position hasn't lasted beyond the third pick. I don't think I'm overlooking anyone. 

This only seems to be true of the center position, also. There are several examples of players at every other position who were taken at various points throughout the draft who went on to be stars, superstars, Hall of Famers... But the real top drawer centers have such an impact and appear to be easy enough to project that they get snapped up at the very top of the draft. 

So...this covers Sampson (before his knees blew out), Olajuwon, Robinson, Ewing, Mourning, O'Neal, Daugherty, Chamberlain, Alcindor, Walton... Maybe someday we'll consider Yao on this list.

I'm not sure about the draft position of some of the pre-Hakeem elites, like McAdoo, Moses, and even Russell. 

But these are all guys who were franchise players, superstars who you knew, with a modicum of talent around them, were going to carry their team to the playoffs year in and year out. They're a few cuts above guys who were simply stars, maybe well-rounded but not phenomenal, or maybe dominant only on one end of the floor. Players like Mutombo, Lanier, Gilmore, and Eaton. 

So, until Eddy Curry busts out for 25 ppg and 12 rpg, I'll stand by my nit-picky argument.


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## Ryoga (Aug 31, 2002)

there's imo a little problem in your logic: int the last 30 years every franchise center was drafted wih the #1, #2 if another center was taken #1 (Shaq and Zo). The only exception I might see is Dikembe Mutombo, taken #4, who's arguably a franchise center too.
That's because the C position has always been the hottest commodity, so every team was gambling a top pick on a potential star center, picking Akeem as Pervis Ellison.
But don't forget that in those days you *always* had a somehow proven player, or at least as proven as the other players in the draft. 
Nowdays the "potential" star centers have a much higher unknown factor, and are much further from contributing than other prospects. 
The teams will have to weight that somehow, and such a player might slip a bit because of that. 

Back to our friend Pavel: he is an unknown, and it means that the scouts hae no clue about what player he will become. Had he waited other 3 years, it would have been clearer what kind of player he was. But now? Where would you pick a player who has a 20% (say) to be Shaq and 80% to be Olowokandi?


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

> Originally posted by <b>Ryoga</b>!
> there's imo a little problem in your logic: int the last 30 years every franchise center was drafted wih the #1, #2 if another center was taken #1 (Shaq and Zo). The only exception I might see is Dikembe Mutombo, taken #4, who's arguably a franchise center too.
> That's because the C position has always been the hottest commodity, so every team was gambling a top pick on a potential star center, picking Akeem as Pervis Ellison.
> But don't forget that in those days you *always* had a somehow proven player, or at least as proven as the other players in the draft.
> ...


I think I agree with your basic point, and that's why I tossed in the bit about Eddy Curry at the end. For the past few decades, it's been fairly easy to project dominant, superstar-level centers...easy enough that they've reliably gone in the top 3 of the draft. That may change as the draft fills with relatively untested teenagers (from abroad and from these shores), with whom a lot more guesswork is involved. So, it's possible that Pavel, Robert Swift or some other young fellow in this year's draft will emerge a few years later as the Next Big Thing. I still think it would be a very rare occurrence, as most great centers are obvious as such coming out of high school (e.g., Wilt, Kareem, Patrick). There will be the odd duckling (a la David Robinson or Hakeem) who rates lower coming out of high school than they would have coming out of college, who is drafted at 18 or 19 yrs. old and surprises everyone with their development. But again, we haven't seen it yet and won't see it very often.


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## jokeaward (May 22, 2003)

Olowokandi.

It kind of hit me. There's no way you can pick Pavel high if he doesn't really, really know basketball. Dajuan Wagner dominated HS and played a lot, but he's still raw. We'll see how he pans out.
But if Pavel doesn't have a reasonable basketball IQ, he shouldn't be a high pick. He can be a nice, tall fellow, but he might be a million-dollar body and 10-cent basketball head. He has to have enough seasoning and knowledge (and other things) to be a professional basketball player, even if he's only as good as a young Jermaine O'Neal or Al Harrington.

I know he's young and probably won't be very good in his first couple of years, but he has to have some idea where to position himself, when to foul, and all the other intangibles.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

> #27 Sam Dalembert
> #19 Jamaal Magloire
> #20 Zydrunas Ilgauskas
> #18 Theo Ratliff
> ...





> I was going to unearth some of these guys because all this crap about centers never being worth the pick beyond the top 3 is simply being naive for the sake of an argument.


I am glad you brought that up. 

_Here is an excerpt I did from a previous analysis on centers taken in the draft (it was centered around POR picking a big man at #13, or why they should not)_

The point I was making wasn't that you COULDN'T find a decent center later in the draft, b\c you obviously can. The point is that more often than not, the players selected around centers drafted in the late lottery (specifically), turn out to be BETTER NBA players more times than not. This is amplified for teams who pick in the lottery. The chances are at #13, POR will have the opportunity to select a good (possibly very good) NBA player, but history shows us it that it won't be a center. *At #23 the chances of such a difference in talent b\t a center and other position players becomes not as significant IMO.* So at that pick (#23 ), or later in the draft it may make more sense to reach for a Podkolzine, Perovic, Samardziski, Araujo, Ramos, Swift & Jinn. At least one of these guys will be available at #23, and I am not convinced that there is that big of difference between them, when all is said and done. *For sure some talented centers have been picked later in the draft. But in the late stages of the lottery, teams that have reached for a center have resoundly missed IMO.* 

I am not saying that GM's should necessarily avoid drafting a center in the mid draft. As in 2001 Samuel Dalembert was available (he went #26). Also Brendan Haywood was selected at #20, and he has shown some promise. Dan Gadzuric in 2002 (#34) has shown some flashes of potential, as has Zaur Pachulia (2003 - #42). The point is that it is a VERY risky proposition, even moreso the closer you are to the top of the draft (from 7-8 to mid round 15-16), and one IMO that should be avoided unless your scouts are dead set on taking a kid (center). Why? Because at #8, #10, and #14, the chances of picking up a VERY good player at another position is MUCH higher than picking up the same QUALITY of center, and that is the point is it not? To get the best player you can? 

How many 1st rounders actually succeed in the NBA (live to see another contract after their rookie deal)? My guess, w\o doing the research is about 1/2, if that. So you better pick the best player you can. 

IF you were sitting at, oh anywhere from #8-#16 in the last FIVE years, here are the players at "other" positions you missed out on... 

Shawn Marion (#9), Corey Maggette (#13), Jamal Crawford (#8 ), Hedo Turkoglu (#16), Joe Johnson (#10), Vladimir Radmonovic (#12), Richard Jefferson (#13), Troy Murphy (#19), Amare Stoudamaire (#9), Caron Butler (#10), Jiri Welsch (#16)... 


Now here are the centers drafted in that range of picks the last 5 years... 

Alex Redojevic (#12), Fredeirck Weis (#15), Joel Pryzbilla (#9), Jerome Moiso (#11), Jason Collier (#15), Segana Diop (#8 ), Steven Hunter (#15), Melvin Ely (#12).... 

Which group would you rather choose from? 

Look, GM's will take risks on big guys and I am not trying to "invalidate" the process. Some GM will reach for Podkolzine or Ramos, or Araujo (maybe even top 10!), or Samardziski this year. However, if PREVIOUS drafts serve as any sort of guide (and they should), those teams will be making a mistake. Now maybe one of those centers listed above does break through, but centers do take LONGER on average to effectively (20+ minutes a night? is that too much to ask?) contribute (look how long it took Brad Miller), and even if one of them does he will be the anomaly and not the rule. 

What I am saying is, Why mess with that law of averages? The draft in and of itself is a crapshoot, their is no guarantee that selecting a non center in that range of picks will get you a good player either. But the chances are MUCH better IMO, than if you drafted a center. *Now the further down (twenties on down) you select, the better the risk is IMO, and the less likely you are to miss out on a good player at another position by taking a flyer on a project center.* Every team wants a player that can A) Contribute right away, or at least B) Can contribute at some point before his deal expires. No one likes selecting a kid and finding out a year later that he can't play (or is 3-4 years away from meaningfully contributing) and that you are stuck with him for a minimum of two more years.
With the way the NBA draft is today, you are just as likely to get as good or better center at #26 than you are at #12, especially this year with so many big men in the draft. So why assume that risk at #12? 

Having said all that, some GM's will reach for players this year (Ramos, Podkolzine, Samardziski) and maybe they get lucky and one of them turns into a good player, but chances are they will not and better players....will end up contributing more to their teams success, and the teams & fans of those teams, that chose those centers will only shake their heads and wonder what could have been. It happens EVERY year.


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## MongolianDeathCloud (Feb 27, 2004)

Good post Kmurph, I think I may have generalized my argument a little too much so that I ended up not arguing with anyone in particular, in this thread at least.

I agree that the history suggests that the good centers have not been scouted very well and have been available later in the draft. My point is that there ARE good centers available in these drafts, they are often not the right ones picked early, but I would rather take my chances trying to score a Dalembert than end up with a ho-hum Mateen Cleaves or what not.

I guess my reasoning might be a little flawed because I'm overly optimistic that NBA teams have learned a bit over the years -- I'm hoping that from last draft and on teams are going to be better at identifying the solid big prospects amongst the chaff, and I feel a solid center is so valuable it's worth a gamble.


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## jericho (Jul 12, 2002)

I have to say it is exciting to me that there are so many intriguing center prospects in this draft. Most of them seem worthy of the risk of picking them from the 15th spot onward, in contrast to players like Fred Weis and Jerome James whose draft position left most rational people absolutely shaking and scratching their heads.


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## budselig (Jun 18, 2004)

> Originally posted by <b>AZwildcats4</b>!
> 
> 
> Chad Ford does not have that kind of power.



Chad Ford does have that kind of power. When what Ford is influencing are low brow fan operated mock draft sites, almost any hype he creates will notably affect rankings around the internet. Ford is one of the most legit sources we have. Deal with it.

Not that I like Pavel Podkolzine...I'm assuming the guy is worthless. Why'd he only average 2ppg in some lame Latvian league?


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## jdg (Jun 13, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>budselig</b>!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Latvian league??? Last I checked, Metis Varese plays in Italy, not Latvia.


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## The Mad Viking (Jun 12, 2003)

MDC - Your welcome. 

Kmuprh - another terrific post, if recycyled; that is exactly the point I was trying to make. You may as well wait until after the lottery, because unless the guy is clearly a superstar (#1 or #2 overall) it seems there is no way of reliably predicting the guys NBA performance. Any of the tier 2 big men seem as likely to make it as another. 

Consider also the possibility that the added pressure of being a lottery pick may be detrimental to the development of an NBA center. This is pure speculation on my part, but the results are truly remarkable- I am sure they would be statistically significant - that a center taken post lottery has a better chance of being a good NBA player than one taken 5-15.

Another possibility - college performance by a center is a particularly poor predictor of NBA performance by a center. Moreso, IMO than any other position. Usually college players who are NBA prospects benefit from mismatches in 80% of their games - they are either opposed by a 6-8 center, or by a big guy who is a total non-athlete. 

Once you get to the NBA, everyone is big and fast and strong. Mismatch gone. 

While it might appear to be true for other positions, I don't think it is. Finding a kid who can defend a wing or a guard just isn't that hard. And you have a selection set of maybe 10x more atheltes at 6-6, and 1000x more athletes at 6-0. So generally non-center college players face decent defence.


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## Knicksbiggestfan (Apr 29, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Kmurph</b>!
> 
> 
> You mean like the teams that gambled on
> ...



I dunno why you put Bradley there, out of that draft who else were they supposed to get in the top 10? Rodney Rogers?

Reid is just silly if that guy didn't have career suffering injuries, he'd be a force.

Foyle is a decent defensive center.


For the majority of those drafts, their just aren't great players availble in the top 10, which is why I think your comparisions are way off.


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## Kmurph (May 7, 2003)

An interesting tidbit about Mr Pavel Podkolzine. I maintain he will go in the mid to late teens, maybe even low twenties.



> One scout (not necessarily from Seattle) joked off the record that “Pavel is the type of guy that you lose your job over” because of how raw he has looked in workouts so far. Pavel was scheduled to meet up with Ramos for a rematch in Portland, but that will not happen for unknown reasons.


Draft City

*“Pavel is the type of guy that you lose your job over” * 


:laugh: :laugh: IF that is a legitimate quote, then it is a classic one.


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## Ryoga (Aug 31, 2002)

This is something I heard too, but you need to understand the meaning of it.
Pavel has the potential of a superstar but he'o DAMN raw and far from being it that it's very difficult to understand what kind of players he will be.
Gambling a high pick on players like that, GMs can lose their jobs as come out as the new genius.


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## Knicksbiggestfan (Apr 29, 2003)

> Originally posted by <b>Ryoga</b>!
> This is something I heard too, but you need to understand the meaning of it.
> Pavel has the potential of a superstar but he'o DAMN raw and far from being it that it's very difficult to understand what kind of players he will be.
> Gambling a high pick on players like that, GMs can lose their jobs as come out as the new genius.


Glad somebody else read that properly.


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