# Tournament Projection



## JuniorNoboa

I think this might be a format I update weekly. Not giving seeds, except for pod teams. This is a projection rather an "As of Today" analysis. Obviously as half the scheudle has been played, what a team has done too date is quite relevant and will bear some correlation to the seedings.

*POD TEAMS*
One Seeds: Ohio State, Pitt, Texas, Villanova
Two Seeds: Duke, UConn, Purdue, Kansas
Three Seeds: Syracuse, San Diego St, Kentucky, Washington
Four Seeds: BYU, Texas AM, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt

*LOCKS* 19 Teams

I have defined locks as teams that are in, even if they win the games they are supposed to (games with a greater then 70% likelihood of winning) for BCS teams. More judgment is used for non BCS teams as one loss means more to them. 

Pitt 
Villanova
Syracuse
Uconn
Notre Dame
Ohio St
Purdue
Wisconsin
Texas
Texas AM
Kansas
Duke
Washington
Arizona
BYU
San Diego St
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Florida

*CONFERENCE CHAMPS - ONE TEAM LEAGUES* 15 Teams

These leagues have no chance at an large, and there tourney champ will get in the tournament. Current projection below.

Big West	Long Beach St
IVY	Harvard
MAAC	Fairfield
Big Sky	Northern Colorado
Southern	Charleston
Summit	Oakland
SunBelt	Florida Atlantic
Patriot	Bucknell
Big South	Coastal Carolina
NEC	Long Island
OVC	Austin Peay
Southland	Nicholls St
America East	Maine
MEAC	Hampton
SWAC	Texas Southern

*LOOKING GOOD AND CURRENTLY IN THE TOURNAMENT* 17 TEAMS

Louisville
West Virginia
Marquette
Cincinnati
Georgetown
Illinois
Michigan St
Minnesota
Missouri
Florida St
UNC
Virginia Tech
UNLV
Georgia
Tennessee
Temple
St. Mary's


*BUBBLE BUSTERS* 6 TEAMS

Top teams from non elite conferences have established a possibility of getting in as at large. They currently lead the conference and are in the tournament as of now.

UTEP
Missouri St
George Mason
Utah St
Belmont
Butler

*ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE BUBBLE* 8 TEAMS
Baylor
Kansas St
Xavier
Maryland
Gonzaga
Memphis
Boston College
VCU

*VICTIMS OF BUBBLE BUSTERS* 3 TEAMS

These 3 teams would currently round out the field of 68, but there will always be some bubble busters in conference tourneys.

Richmond
Nebraska
UCLA

*MISSING THE CUT*
St. John's
Clemson
Colorado
Oklahoma St
UAB
Wichita St
Duquesne
Washington St
Alabama


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## xu95

I think Xavier is one bad week away from being on the outside looking in.

xu95


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## EpicFailGuy

xu95 said:


> I think Xavier is one bad week away from being on the outside looking in.
> 
> xu95


I think you can say that about just about every non-BCS team out there.


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## bpurc22

At this point, Marquette is on the bubble at best. Temple is on the bubble at best and probably out. St. John's is probably in. IMO I see Xavier as "LOOKING GOOD AND CURRENTLY IN THE TOURNAMENT". I also see Georgia as on the bubble at best after last night's loss at home to Florida.


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## bpurc22

These are just personal opinions, but I also see Lehigh winning the Patriot, Robert Morris winning the NEC, Jackson State/Texas Southern winning the SWAC, and Vermont from the American East. Haha these are just from watching some games.


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## JuniorNoboa

bpurc22 said:


> At this point, Marquette is on the bubble at best. Temple is on the bubble at best and probably out. St. John's is probably in. IMO I see Xavier as "LOOKING GOOD AND CURRENTLY IN THE TOURNAMENT". I also see Georgia as on the bubble at best after last night's loss at home to Florida.


Appreciate the comments. I will keep this format as we go forward so there can be differneces in opinion on classificaiton.

My rankings were projections, rather then as of now, but what has happened to date currently is a big factor. I strongly consider where KenPom has there projected record in making my assessments of what will happen, but I don't always take KP projections.

The bubble is not that strong this year. KenPom projects Marquette at 10-8 in the Big East, and given their level of competitiveness agaisnt tough teams, I think that would be enough to make them a clear in. Marquette could have used a quality home win though last night. Your right that they do need to win a few of these games. IIRC, Marquette was in the exact same situation last year, losing many close games, then closed out the regular season well to solidify their seed.

Temple is also stronger candidate then you give them credit for IMO - they have to get to 12 A-10 victories to feel totally safe, but 11 is probably enough, given their wins over Georgetown, Georgia and Maryland in the OOC schedule.

I'm not so keen on St. John's. KenPom projects them at 8-10 in the Big East, and I agree with that projection. 

Georgia losing a key opportunity at home really hurt them last night. They would probably be on the right side of the bubble in my next projection, but they moved down. They had a bad OOC with losses against St. Bonavanture at home and at Fordham, and have no victories to stand on OOC. In conference they are 4-4, and their recent loss at home against Cincy really hurt them. 

I like Marquette's chances ALOT better then St. John's.

YOu commented on another thread about Cincy calling them a fluke. I wouldn't call them a fluke... but more unknown. Their KenPom ranking is 26, so that means their record is not totally due to the poor competition. Also, sure they lost 3 games against their best competiotion, but most bubble teams would go 0-3 on the road against Nova, Cuse and Notre Dame. And most bubble teams would do really well against their competition but maybe a win or two short of 17-0. So that's their case for getting in now. Have to give them credit for their win over St. John's at St. John's -- that puts them well ahead of the Storm.

Xavier would be in the tournament today, but I project that they will not have a great resume by the end of the season. They are not deep, and it may bite them in the ass at some point. They accomplished nothing OOC, so to be off the bubble they can't have many slip ups at all in the A-10. Even 12-4 would put them on the bubble.


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## bball2223

Just curious, but does anyone else have a shot in the Pac-10 to grab an at-large? Or is Arizona, Washington and UCLA the only 3 with tourney hopes?


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## bpurc22

^ I would say those 3 are the only ones with hopes haha that conference has just been pathetic.

Maybe USC. They get Arizona twice, UCLA, and Washington before the season is over. If they win 3 of those games, I could see them getting in already with a win over UCLA and wins over Texas and Tennessee. That Kansas game would have helped exponentially. 

Losses to Bradley, Rider, and TCU are hard to argue for, especially when you aren't running the table in a weak power conference.


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## JuniorNoboa

Jan 31 UPDATE

Top 25 teams went 10-11 yesterday, so things are going to move a bit from last week's projection.

*POD TEAMS*
One Seeds: Ohio State, Pitt, Texas, Kansas (Up from #2)
Two Seeds: Villanova (Down from #1), UConn, Purdue, Duke 
Three Seeds: BYU (Up From Four Last Week), San Diego St, Kentucky, Washington
Four Seeds: Notre Dame (New), Texas AM, Georgetown (New), Louisville (New)

Out - Syracuse (Was #3 Seed) - What a fall from grace. This has been an unbelievable turn of events, Every loss was explainable except the Seton Hall game. Win that game and the argument could be made it was simply a tough part of the schedule. But that crushing loss at home, makes the team seem not viable going forward. 

Vanderbilt (was a 4 seed) - Losing at home against Arkansas hurts

Wisconsin (was a 4 seed) - A five right now

*LOCKS* 20 Teams

I have defined locks as teams that are in, even if they win the games they are supposed to (games with a greater then 70% likelihood of winning) for BCS teams. More judgment is used for non BCS teams as one loss means more to them. 

The whole purpose of the lock is to make it such that it is very, very likely that the team will get in the NCAA tournament. Teams should not move off lock (but I don't want to make it 100% restrictive either(. Lock teams are not supposed to lose at home by 22 points to ****ing Seton Hall, and lose four in a row. 


Pitt 
Villanova
Uconn
Notre Dame
Ohio St
Purdue
Wisconsin
Texas
Texas AM
Kansas
Duke
Washington
Arizona
BYU
San Diego St
Kentucky
Louisville (New - Huge Win at UConn)
West Virginia (New - Big Road Win at Cincinnati, only need to go 9-9 in BE given OOC wins against Duquesne, Cleveland St, Purdue, Vanderbilt)
Georgetown (New - Another Huge Road Win in the Big East yesterday at Nova - good enough OOC that 9-9 in BE is certainly more then enough)
UNC (New: Given win over Kentucky, 9-7 should be enough, and at 5-1 that seems quite plausable.


*CONFERENCE CHAMPS - ONE TEAM LEAGUES* 16 Teams

These leagues have no chance at an large, and there tourney champ will get in the tournament. Current projection below.

MAC: Buffalo
Big West:	Long Beach St
IVY:	Harvard
MAAC:	Fairfield
Big Sky:	Montana (Replaces Northern Colorado)
Southern:	Charleston
Summit:	Oakland
SunBelt:	Florida Atlantic
Patriot:	Bucknell
Big South:	Coastal Carolina
NEC:	Long Island
OVC:	Austin Peay
Southland:	Texas Arlington (replace Nicholls St)
America East:	Maine
MEAC:	Hampton
SWAC:	Texas Southern

*CURRENTLY ABOVE THE BUBBLE LINE FOR THE TOURNAMENT* 13 TEAMS

Marquette (Big Win over Syracuse - may need to get 10-8 to get in, but seems feasable, given softer Big East schedule down the stretch)
Syracuse (Downgraded from Lock - loss to Seton Hall)
Florida (Downgraded from Lock - loss to Miss St)
Vanderbilt (Downgraded from Lock - loss at home to Arkansas)
Illinois
Michigan St (Brutal OOC Schedule will pay off in the end with a bid)
Minnesota
Missouri
Florida St
UNLV
Tennessee
Xavier
Maryland

*BUBBLE BUSTERS* 7 TEAMS

Top teams from non elite conferences have established a possibility of getting in as at large. They currently lead the conference and are in the tournament as of now.

St. Mary's
UTEP
Missouri St
VCU
Utah St
Belmont
Cleveland St (replaced Butler this week)

*ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE BUBBLE* 9 TEAMS

St. John's (moved in this week after Duke Victory)
Clemson (moved in with two wins including one against FSU)
Michigan St (Will get benefit of doubt due to brutal OOC)
Cincinnati (Blew a Huge Opportunity at Home against West Virginia)
Baylor
Nebraska (moved in after Texas AM victory)
UAB
Duquesne (moved in after two more impressive comfortable wins)
Temple


*VICTIMS OF BUBBLE BUSTERS* 3 TEAMS

These 3 teams would currently round out the field of 68, but there will always be some bubble busters in conference tourneys.

UCLA
George Mason
Gonzaga 

*MISSING THE CUT*

*First Five Out*
Virginia Tech (Want to see Seth Greenberg cry again)
Georgia
Wichita St
Richmond
Alabama

Virginia Tech, Georgia and Richmond were all in as of last week.


*
Others That May Get Considered (Need to Raise there level of Play)* 
Kansas St
Colorado
Washington St
Penn St (New - Big win over Wisconsin, now 5-4 in Big Ten, probably need to go 10-8, which does not seem feasable as they had easier part of the Big Ten Schedule already)
Oklahoma St
Northwestern
Memphis
Old Dominion
Rhode Island
Colorado St
New Mexico
Boston College
Georgia Tech


*CONFERENCE BIDS*
Big East 11
Big Ten 6
Big Twelve 6
ACC 5
SEC 4
Pac 10 3
MWC 3
A10 3
CUSA 2
WCC 2
Colonial 2


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## bpurc22

looking good man...gotta see St. John's as in right now with that win and how they won. things are getting crazy though. Personally I would have Wichita State as in and UCLA out, I would have George Mason out (only good win was Duquesne). TBH Cincinnati is slipping for me. I said before I thought they would drop a bunch and it looks like it's gonna happen


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## JuniorNoboa

Just a few thoughts as we enter weekend play

- My three last teams in did what they had to do this week.

- If Michigan St can somehow survice and get to 9-9 in the Big Ten they still would get in, but where are those four games. They will still get alot of rope for the OOC schedule, so I will probably still have them on the bubble but in.

- Right now KenPom currently projects only five teams in the Big 12 at .500 or better. Will a 7-9 be good enough from the Big 12.

- Virginia Tech did what it had to do this week winning a road conference game which is never easy. They probably move in.

- If Colorado St had somehow held on against SDSU they probably would get in this week


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## JuniorNoboa

If Alabama can beat Tennessee tomorrow they would move into the projected field

UAB could not afford slipping up at home against a team like Southern Miss. 

Baylor losing at Oklahoma really hurt as well.

This week I probably move in Georgia and Virginia Tech and move out Baylor and UAB.


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## JuniorNoboa

Deleted to site not being user friendly


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## Nimreitz

Is Wisconsin a 3 or a 5? You seem to say both.


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## JuniorNoboa

Nimreitz said:


> Is Wisconsin a 3 or a 5? You seem to say both.


I lost my post because it was taking me too long to update , and I got logged out. My work got lost, and I will update it later (if I have time or feel like it or the site logs me out again mid post).

I put it IN PROGRESS because I know I have to save, but it gets pretty ****ing annoying at times to save every 10 minutes.


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## JuniorNoboa

FEB 6 UPDATE

Alot of teams losing in the 7-20 range this week. Starting to get a little separation in the top five teams from the rest of the teams. With the Big East, Big 12, and Big Ten teams beating other up, such that the seoond and third place teams have alot of losses, this certainly helps San Diego St and BYU get themselves both on the two line. With the Big 12 only being dominated by two teams, the ACC, SEC and Pac-10 Down, the Big Ten not having power at the top. expect the three and four seed lines to be dominated by the Big East.

*POD TEAMS*
One Seeds: Ohio State, Pitt, Texas, Kansas (NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK)

Two Seeds: Duke, San Diego St (Up from Two). BYU (Up from TWO), Notre Dame (Up from Four - I think they will now finish second in the Big East) 

Three Seeds: Villanova (Down from Two), Georgetown (Up From Four) Wisconsin (New), UConn (Down from Too) 

Four Seeds: Syracuse (New), Purdue (Down from Three), UNC (New), Arizona (New) 

Out - Louisville (Big East Numbers Game), Kentucky (Losses this Week), Washington (Losses this Week, that are hard to recover from in Pac-10 to keep a high seeding). Texas AM (Can't lose at Nebraska, and at home against Baylor and keep a pod seed)

Close - Louisville, Kentucky, Florida, West Virginia

Their is a lack of any really good resumes outside of BCS and top MWC powers.


*LOCKS* 20 Teams

I have defined locks as teams that are in, even if they win the games they are supposed to (games with a greater then 70% likelihood of winning) for BCS teams. More judgment is used for non BCS teams as one loss means more to them. 

The whole purpose of the lock is to make it such that it is very, very likely that the team will get in the NCAA tournament. Teams should not move off lock (but I don't want to make it 100% restrictive either(. Lock teams are not supposed to lose at home by 22 points to ****ing Seton Hall, and lose four in a row. 

Pitt 

Villanova

Uconn

Notre Dame

Ohio St

Purdue

Wisconsin

Texas

Kansas

Duke

Arizona

Washington

BYU

San Diego St

Kentucky

Florida

Louisville

Georgetown

UNC 

Syracuse (Road Win at UConn gets them back on track)

*CONFERENCE CHAMPS - ONE TEAM LEAGUES* 17 Teams

These leagues have no chance at an large, and there tourney champ will get in the tournament. Current projection below.

MAC: Buffalo

Big West:	Long Beach St

IVY:	Harvard

MAAC:	Fairfield

Big Sky:	Montana 

Southern:	Charleston

Summit:	Oakland

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

SunBelt:	Florida Atlantic

Patriot:	Bucknell

Big South:	Coastal Carolina

NEC:	Long Island

OVC:	Murray St (replace Ausin Peay)

Southland:	Stephen F Austin (replace Texas Arlingotn)

America East:	Vermont (replaces Maine)

MEAC:	Hampton

SWAC:	Texas Southern

*CURRENTLY ABOVE THE BUBBLE LINE FOR THE TOURNAMENT* 14 TEAMS

West Virginia (Moved Down from Lock - There still in very good shape just need to be careful with home games against UConn, Louisville and Notre Dame, and make sure to get to 9-9)

Texas AM (Moved Down from Lock - Lost at Nebraska, and at Home vs Baylor, and three game losing streak -- they have OOC Wins against Boston College, Temple and Washington, so they are still safe even at 8-8 in conference)

Vanderbilt 

Illinois

Minnesota

Missouri

Florida St (Win over Duke helps, 10-6 in ACC projected)

UNLV

Tennessee

Xavier

Marquette (Still have a fairly easy road to 9-9 in Big East, as they are heavily favoured in five of next eight conference games, and favoured in six of next eight. so I will keep them in this group)

Cincinnati (Need to be careful - I can easily see them falling to 8-10, even if KP has them at 10-8)

UCLA (Good RPI of 41, KP record of 11-7 in Pac-10, and win over BYU)

Utah St - Almost a lock at this point, but any losses hurt because of who they have played.


*BUBBLE BUSTERS* 5 TEAMS

Top teams from non elite conferences have established a possibility of getting in as at large. They currently lead the conference and are in the tournament as of now.

St. Mary's

UTEP

Wichita St

George Mason

Cleveland St


*ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE BUBBLE* 9 TEAMS

St. John's (Blew an Opportunity vs UCLA, RPI of 22, but they are only favoured to win 2 of last eight. Say they go 8-10, with an RPI around 35, and a record of 16-14. How far can a Duke, Georgetown, and Notre Dame HOME win carry you?)

Baylor (RPI of 76 Hurts, but will get better, huge road win at A*M, will need to pull off an upset down the stretch)

Georgia (Decent RPI, SEC East gives opportunity for quality victories)

Temple (above other two A-10 bubble teams)

Kansas St (moved back in this week, good RPI of 31, have three quality OOC road wins against bubble / near bubble teams, tested itself OOC, KP projects them at 7-9 which may be enough, but 8-8 should certainly be enough, rep may help too)

Virginia Tech (moved back in this week, KP has them at 10-6 in the ACC, and I think that would be enough, even with a middling RPI)

Maryland (projected at 10-6 in ACC, but its going to be hard to overcome their current RPI of 77)

Richmond (12-4 in A-10, and win vs Purdue on Neutral Floor, RPI of 72 that will probably get in the mid 50-60's - is that enough?)

Old Dominion (strong RPI, quality OOC wins against Xavier, Richmond, Clemson, Dayton)



*POTENTIAL VICTIMS OF BUBBLE BUSTERS* 3 TEAMS

Gonzaga - could not really afford to lose to Memphis, but will get valued for quality of OOC sched, and wins. Their still a very close call.

Duquesne (Really need that home win over Xavier, will struggle to get over the RPI, need to get 13-3 in conference - key game will be at Richmond to end season)

Alabama (Will be a very interesting case come selection Sunday as they are looking to have an RPI in 70's or 80's - an empty 12-4 in the SEC West may not be enough - may need to steal a road win at Florida or Vandy. But they have beaten Kentucky and road Tennessee.)

These 3 above teams would currently round out the field of 68, but there will always be some bubble busters in conference tourneys.

*MISSING THE CUT*

*First Five Out*
UAB
Colorado St
Clemson 
Oklahoma St
Michigan St

*
Others That May Get Considered (Need to Raise there level of Play)* 


Colorado St (If they can win against UNLV at home their chances will go up)

Colorado

Washington St (few nice things on their resume, but RPI of 69 hurts, and need to step it up in Pac-10)

Oklahoma St (good RPI of 46, but resume lacks wins of substance, and 7-9 in conference will probably not be enough for them - KP predicts 7-9)

Memphis - Win at Zags certainly helps, but will have a hard time getting boost in CUSA (crapshoot between them UAB, Southern Miss)

Southern Miss (Decent RPI of 47, good record so far, but difficult part of CUSA sched coming, and lack of substance in quality of victories) 

Rhode Island

New Mexico

Boston College (may have a better resume then other ACC Teams that are in, but I think will tail - KP has them at 8-8 in ACC which is not enough)

Nebraska (moved out of tourney - need win at Home against Texas)

Michigan St (their RPI is 50, but yet the committee will reward them for really testing themselves OOC, but I have no faith in this team getting to .500, or even 8-10 in conference)

Clemson (decent RPI, but really need to get to 10-6 in ACC as they lack quality wins -- win at home against UNC would help)

Butler (have decent RPI and Rep but not much else)

Valparaiso (not enough quality opposition left)

VCU (lack OOC resume of Old Dominion)

Drexel (need to sweep rest of season and do well in tourney)

Missouri St (lack substance in wins)

Northern Iowa (lack substance in wins 

*CONFERENCE BIDS*
Big East 11
Big 12 - 6
SEC 6 (I am not comfortable with this but will leave for now - See what happens next week and one of Georgia and Alabama will drop out)
Big 10 - 5
ACC 5
A-10 - 4
Pac 10 - 3
MWC 3
WCC 2
Colonial 2


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## Nimreitz

I haven't looked at the sites, but I know Chicago is one of them. Do you think Wisconsin can get there with a 3? I assume Notre Dame is a lock for Chicago, but would tOSU, Kansas, or Pitt go there?


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## JuniorNoboa

Nimreitz said:


> I haven't looked at the sites, but I know Chicago is one of them. Do you think Wisconsin can get there with a 3? I assume Notre Dame is a lock for Chicago, but would tOSU, Kansas, or Pitt go there?


Based on my seedings Wisconsin would go to Chicago. Ohio St and Pitt have Cleveland to go to. The key it seems is staying ahead of Purdue.

Ohio St - Cleveland
Texas - Tulsa
Pitt - Cleveland
Kansas - Tulsa
Duke - Charlotte (There is a North Carolina site almost every year)
San Diego St - Tucson
BYU - Denver
UConn - Washington
Georgetown - Charlotte
Wisconsin - Chicago
Villanova - Washington
Syracuse - Tampa
Arizona - Denver
Purdue - Tucson
UNC - Tampa


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## JuniorNoboa

*NEWARK REGION*

* At Cleveland*
1	Ohio St
16	Long Island / Hampton

8	Marquette
9	George Mason


* At Denver*
4	Arizona
13	UTEP

5	West Virginia
12	Virginia Tech


* At Denver*
2	BYU
15	Buffalo

7	Vanderbilt
10	Wichita St


* At Washington*
3	Uconn
14	Fairfield

6	Missouri
11	Maryland

*SAN ANTONIO REGION*

* At Tulsa*
1	Texas
16	Stephen F Austin / Texas Southern

8	UCLA
9	UNLV


* At Tampa*
4	UNC
13	Coastal Carolina

5	Florida
12	St. John's


* At Chicago*
2	Notre Dame
15	Murray St

7	Tennessee
10	Kansas St


* At Chicago*
3	Wisconsin
14	Oakland

6	Xavier
11	Alabama / Gonzaga

*NEW ORLEANS REGION*

* At Cleveland*
1	Pitt
16	Long Beach St

8	St, Mary's
9	Florida St


* At Tucson*
4 Purdue
13	Harvard

5	Louisville
12	Old Dominion


* At Tucson*
2	San Diego St
15	Bucknell

7	Washington
10	Temple


* At Charlotte*
3	Georgetown
14	Charleston

6	Texas AM
11	Georgia / Duquesne

*ANAHEIM REGION*

* At Tulsa*
1	Kansas
16	Montana

8	Minnesota
9	Cincinnati


* At Tampa*
4	Syracuse
13	Belmont

5	Kentucky
12	Richmond


* At Charlotte*
2	Duke
15	Florida Atlantic

7	Illinois
10	Baylor


* At Washington*
3	Villanova
14	Vermont

6	Utah St
11	Cleveland St


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## Nimreitz

JuniorNoboa said:


> Based on my seedings Wisconsin would go to Chicago. Ohio St and Pitt have Cleveland to go to. The key it seems is staying ahead of Purdue.


Probably comes down to which team has the better Big Ten Tournament then. Good stuff.


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## Rather Unique

St. John's doin it again. You could add UCONN to the list of victims at home, MSG is becoming a place rank teams go to die...freaking me out because PITT has to go there next week. damn it.


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## JuniorNoboa

Not the most eventful five days of basketball relating to my bubble - teams won games they were supposed to with a few exceptions. St. John's really strenghtened itself with its win over UConn (although a home win for them in that game should not be unexpected). Alabama probably stays on the same place on my bubble despite the loss at Vandy (that was expected),

The one team that does drop out is Georgia - it had to take care of business at Home against Xavier. I will go with UAB to replace them as I expect them to finish strong in CUSA, but it really can be anybody on that list of five.


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## JuniorNoboa

Tomorrow is a big day - some of my favourite games from a bubble perspective are:

San Diego St at UNLV - UNLV is in good shape, but this would really be huge. KenPom has them with 51% chance of winning.


UNC at Clemson - KenPOm has Clemson at 48% for this game. A win here probably puts them on the right side of my projection.

Maryland at Boston College - KP has Maryland at 68% for this road game. It really needs quality road wins to bolster its bad RPI.

Old Dominion at VCU - KP has Old Dominion at 41%. This is a potential near top 50 road win. These are huge when you are on the bubble, as top 50 road wins are not easy to come by,

Southern Miss at Memphis - 49RPI at 35 RPI. On these games between two bubble teams, the team that stands too benefit the most is always the road team, as a road win against any bubble level team or above is huge. KP has Southern Miss at 40%.

Kansas St 40% Chance at Colorado - As per above, a great opportunity for the road team to solidify themselves with a quality road win.

St. John's at Cincinnati - Must win for Cincy, and for St. John's this win could move them safely above the bubble. Cincy as a 73$ favourite per KP.

Xavier at Duquesne - Duquesne has two chances too negate the RPI which will be poor once it is reviewed by the committee - this game and at Richomd.


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## JuniorNoboa

JuniorNoboa said:


> Tomorrow is a big day - some of my favourite games from a bubble perspective are:
> 
> San Diego St at UNLV - UNLV is in good shape, but this would really be huge. KenPom has them with 51% chance of winning.
> 
> 
> UNC at Clemson - KenPOm has Clemson at 48% for this game. A win here probably puts them on the right side of my projection.
> 
> Maryland at Boston College - KP has Maryland at 68% for this road game. It really needs quality road wins to bolster its bad RPI.
> 
> Old Dominion at VCU - KP has Old Dominion at 41%. This is a potential near top 50 road win. These are huge when you are on the bubble, as top 50 road wins are not easy to come by,
> 
> Southern Miss at Memphis - 49RPI at 35 RPI. On these games between two bubble teams, the team that stands too benefit the most is always the road team, as a road win against any bubble level team or above is huge. KP has Southern Miss at 40%.
> 
> Kansas St 40% Chance at Colorado - As per above, a great opportunity for the road team to solidify themselves with a quality road win.


So of the teams I highlighted that had a chance of getting a big win that was a decent chance of winning, only Old Dominion did it.

Clemson, Maryland, Southern Miss, and Kansas St all blew a chance at a feasable quality road win.

Sure Memphis and BC benefit from today, but a road win is always more relevant when deciphering the bubble.


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## JuniorNoboa

JuniorNoboa said:


> St. John's at Cincinnati - Must win for Cincy, and for St. John's this win could move them safely above the bubble. Cincy as a 73$ favourite per KP.
> 
> Xavier at Duquesne - Duquesne has two chances too negate the RPI which will be poor once it is reviewed by the committee - this game and at Richomd.


St. John's ends up being the team to get the big road win. They are now essentially guaranteed to go 9-9 in the Big East due to home games against South Florida and Depaul. Add in the win over Duke, home wins over UConn, Georgetown and Notre Dame, road wins over West Virginia and Cincy. This team is under consideration for lock at this point.

Cincy blew a big chance. They are now 6-6, and getting to 9-9 will be tough with this schedule.
Wed Feb 16 21 Louisville Home 
Sat Feb 19 67 Providence Away 
Wed Feb 23 14 Georgetown Away 
Sun Feb 27 23 Connecticut Home 
Wed Mar 2 27 Marquette Away 
Sat Mar 5 14 Georgetown Home

If they can get to 9-9, inherently they would have to get three quality wins. Despite their poor OOC, the thrashing over Xavier looks better and better. But can they get to 9-9? Definetely somewhere on my bubble.

Xavier is moving into the six or seven line. Will need to shine from here on out to hope for much higher.

It was disappointing to see Duquesne lose - always nice to see some fresh faces in the tourney. They will probably need to sweep Dayton and Richmond on the road to have a resume strong enough to consider. Its possible, but I think they may be on the outside looking in.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

The most notable thing that affects a projection from week to week is teams on the bubble that win games they are the underdog in or lose games they are favourites.

Teams in that category this week are:

LOSER - Coastal Carolina (KenPom had them at 97% chance of winning)- was a marginal bubble contender due to their record and weak bubble, but a loss at home against 9-18 Gardner Webb probably kills any thoughts of an at large. They should still win the Big South.

LOSER - Marquette - Lost at Home to St. John's. KenPom had them at a 74% chance of winning which seemed a little high. Now go on the bubble with this loss, but will probably still salvage a bid. Although 6-7, their road to 9-9 in conference is not that hard.

WINNER - Kansas St - Pulled an upset against a 1 or 2 seed in Kansas. Big move up.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Percentages per KenPom


Bubble teams with a reasonable chance at an upset win (25-50%) on Wednesday night:
Georgia 47% at home against Vanderbilt
UAB 48% at Memphis
UTEP 41% at Southern Miss



Bubble teams that could reasonably face an upset loss (50-75%) on Wednesday night:
Cincinnati 59% at home against Louisville
Memphis 52% at home against UAB
Cleveland St 56% at Wright St
Southern Miss 59% home against UTEP
Colorado St 69% at TCU

Looks like the key bubble games are in CUSA tomorrow night, which is hard to distinguish right now.


----------



## Nimreitz

JuniorNoboa said:


> LOSER - Marquette - Lost at Home to St. John's. KenPom had them at a 74% chance of winning which seemed a little high. Now go on the bubble with this loss, but will probably still salvage a bid. Although 6-7, their road to 9-9 in conference is not that hard.


St. John's is clearly a different team now than they were at the beginning of the year, and I know Kenpom weighs recent results more, but it appears to not be enough with this Red Storm team.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

JuniorNoboa said:


> Percentages per KenPom
> 
> 
> Bubble teams with a reasonable chance at an upset win (25-50%) on Wednesday night:
> Georgia 47% at home against Vanderbilt
> UAB 48% at Memphis
> UTEP 41% at Southern Miss
> 
> 
> 
> Bubble teams that could reasonably face an upset loss (50-75%) on Wednesday night:
> Cincinnati 59% at home against Louisville
> Memphis 52% at home against UAB
> Cleveland St 56% at Wright St
> Southern Miss 59% home against UTEP
> Colorado St 69% at TCU
> 
> Looks like the key bubble games are in CUSA tomorrow night, which is hard to distinguish right now.


None of the "underdog" teams win, and all the favs above win. Georgia really blew it at home against Vandy as they had a 15 point lead at some point.

One of the advantages for bubble BCS teams is they can get lower tier top 25 games at home, which almost are always close to 50/50 games. Bubble teams in NON-BCS conferences do not get such great chances to beat top opposition down the stretch at home.

I would have to say the two biggest losers tonight are UAB and UTEP. A team from CUSA has to distinguish itself against top 30-60 teams on the road to help itself.


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## JuniorNoboa

Thursday's Bubble Games of Interest (25-75% chance of winning)

Richmond 26% at Temple - Richmond's last chance at a significant quality victroy which they need to make up for their RPI.

Clemson 62% at NC St - Clemson needs this one to stay on track for 9-7 in the ACC.

Minnesota 41% at Penn St - Minny is still in decent shape, but stealing this one would ease things down the stretch.

UCLA 47% at Stanford - According to KP UCLA is underdog in five of its last six conference games, four of which are on the road. 9-3 in the PAC-10 looks solid, 10-8 or 11-7 not so much. They needs to steal at least one of these games, and this would be a good start.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Ultimately the team that took the biggest hit last night was St. Mary's after losing to previously 3-21, RPI #311, San Diego.

They are now on the bubble after such a bad loss.

So far tonight has been a weak night for the bubble as all of Richmond, Clemson, and Minnesota have loss. Richomd and Clemson are currently out IMO, Minnesota has the games to redeem itself, but would still project in -- barely,


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## JuniorNoboa

*NEWARK REGION*

CLEVELAND
1	Ohio St
16	Florida Atlantic / Hampton

8	Washington
9	Cincinnati

TAMPA
4	Florida
13	Coastal Carolina

5	Texas AM
12	Marquette

CHICAGO
2	Notre Dame
15	Kent St

7	Tennessee
10	St. Mary's

DENVER
3	Arizona
14	Vermont

6	St. John's
11	Wichita St

*SAN ANTONION REGION*

TULSA
1	Texas
16	Stephen F Austin / Texas Southern

8	Minnesota
9	Utah St

TAMPA
4	Louisville
13	Belmont

5	Kentucky
12	Old Dominion

TUCSON
2	San Diego St
15	Fairfield

7	UCLA
10	Florida St

CHARLOTTE
3	Georgetown
14	Charleston

6	Xavier
11	Baylor


NEW ORLEANS REGION

CLEVELAND
1	Pitt
16	Long Beach St

8	Illinois
9	Kansas St

WASHINGTON
4	UNC
13	Princeton

5	Villanova
12	Colorado St / Michigan St

DENVER
2	BYU
15	Morehead St

7	Vanderbilt
10	Boston College

CHICAGO
3	Purdue
14	Oakland

6	West Virginia
11	Virginia Tech

*ANAHEIM REGION*

TULSA
1	Kansas
16	Montana

8	UNLV
9	George Mason

DENVER
4	Wisconsin
13	Alabama / Richmond

5	Syracuse
12	Gonzaga

CHARLOTTE
2	Duke
15	Long Island

7	Temple
10	Memphis

WASHINGTON
3	Uconn
14	Bucknell

6	Missouri
11	Cleveland St


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## JuniorNoboa

Last 5-8 Teams In
Virginia Tech
Marquette
Old Dominion
Gonzaga

Last 4 Teams In
Richmond
Alabama
Michigan St
Colorado St

First 4 Teams Out
Georgia
UAB
Butler
Clemson

Next 4 Teams Out
Harvard
Penn St
Michigan
Missouri St


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## JuniorNoboa

Some bubble games of interest today

Oklahoma St 47% vs Texas AM - Oklahoma St is 4-7 in conference, but could conceivably get to 8-8. It has three toss up games remaining vs AM, vs Baylor, and at Oklahoma. It absolutely needs this game to stay on the bubble.

Utah St 44% at St. Mary's 56% - Two top 25 teams, but neither can feel too comfortable down the stretch as any loss is often a bad loss, like St. Mary's against San Diego - both teams are in right now, but this gives the winner a quality win that may put them at lock status.

Virginia Tech 78% at Virginia - Tech can't afford any slipups of this magnitude, probably on right side of bubble right now. 

Butler 86% at Illinois Chicago - Butler cannot survive another Youngstown St on their resume. Outside looking in right now IMO they don't have any games to improve their resume, only games to really hurt them. I still think they need to win the Horizon


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## JuniorNoboa

Butler 86% at Illinois Chicago - Butler cannot survive another Youngstown St on their resume. Outside looking in right now IMO they don't have any games to improve their resume, only games to really hurt them. I still think they need to win the Horizon

Kansas St 90% vs Oklahoma - Can't lose 

Missouri St 39% vs Valparaiso -Missouri St gets a good draw for the bubble buster in that they can get a road win against a team that will be 50-60 RPI. 

Alabama 86% vs Arkansas - Can't lose

Cincy 61% vs Providence - Cincy needs wins. They could make up for a loss here as they finish with Georgetown X 2, UConn, and at Marquette. But only one win out of those four is conceivable which makes this game necessary to get to 9-9.

Baylor 89% vs Texas Tech - Can't afford to lose.

Michigan St 49% vs Illinois - I have said all along that the Spartans would get the benefit of the doubt if they are a bubble team because they played everyone OOC - irregardless of results. But they need to make the bubble. 

Marguette 78% vs Seton Hall - They are 6-7 and I would think need to get to 9-9 optically. They need this game to have a good chance at it.


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## JuniorNoboa

Boston College 10% at UNC - Loss wouldn't hurt, but win would really help their profile.

Duquesne 64% at Dayton - I think KP overrates Duquesne. Anyway, it needs to sweep Dayton and Richmond on the road to have a shot.

Florida St 89% at Wake - Florida St is probably not as big a favourite without Singleton. Wake is arguably the worst BCS team. FSU simply must win this game to prove they are not horrid without Singelton.

Georgia 28% at Tennessee - Georgia is one of those teams that always seems to be in my last in or last out. They absolutely need to steal one road game down the stretch at Tennessee, Florida or Bama.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Michigan 48% at Iowa - I do not think Michigan is as close as others. But they need all the wins they can get, so a 50-50 road game is big for them.

UAB 79% vs Central Florida - Remember when Central Florida was a top 25 team? They are now about to fall to 3-9 in CUSA -- where a win over them is now meaningless.

Colorado St 46% vs UNLV - Colorado St really needs this game to legit its RPI. I can certainly see the MWC getting four teams.

Harvard 70% at Colombia - Harvard has a fairly empty resume, but good RPI, win at BC... maybe the committee will take a liking to them, but they cannot afford any bad losses like this one, and its not a gimme.

Memphis 59% at Rice - Memphis cannot afford to lose the positive momentum it has in the last few weeks by beating Gonzaga, UAB and Southern Miss.


----------



## coolpohle

Really damaging loss for Duquesne today. Up by six on the road over Dayton with less than five minutes to play and couldn't get the W. Probably need to win out and make the A10 finals for an at-large bid.

Virginia Tech lost one they probably should have won today. Seems like they are right on the bubble every year. This season will be no different.

Nebraska is hanging right there with Texas. Definitely some potential of them working their way in with a marquee win today.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Georgia was also a big winner earlier today with a road win over an existing tournament team in Tennessee. Their certain;y back in (if somebody had them out in the first place)

Really damanging loss for Virginia Tech - this will hurt their already tenous RPI, and they done have the quality wins to mask bad losses. As CP said, the same thing happens to this team every year, almost always the same scenario in terms of lack of quality wins, and Seth Greenberg whines when they miss.

Nebraska's RPI will rise to the sixties, with two top 50 wins - they also have Kansas St and Missouri coming into Nebraska so a chance to pile on more big wins. They are definetely in deep consideration.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Saturday's Biggest Winners

#1. Nebraska - Win over Texas. This is what a win over a potential number one seed will do. They moved from clearly off the bubble to on the bubble.

#2. Georgia - Win over Tennessee. I said that Georgia needed to steal one road win down the stretch. They did in the first try.

#3 - Michigan St - A 50/50 game against Illinois that it won. They are in right now. Not enough to put them on the in side of the bubble, but it keeps them in the hunt

#4. Utah St - If anyone had any doubt about their at large status (which they should not have), a convincing win at St. Mary's locked up their bid.

#5. Michigan - Won a toss up game on the road at Iowa. The win itself does not look great, but the loss would have been seen as bad.. and maybe unfairly so.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Saturday's Biggest Losers

#1. Baylor - Loss to RPI #152 Texas Tech AT HOME. Their RPI will fall to the 70's. They have a lack of quality wins (one), and getting to 8-8 will be difficult. They have a chance of four quality wins down the stretch so they can possibly recover.

#2. Virginia Tech - Lost at #151 RPI Virginia. There going to have a hard time to get to 10-6 now in the ACC, which I think had to be their target.

#3. Colorado St - Lost at home vs UNLV. Colorado St lacks some substance in their resume, and a win against a quality team at home would have paid dividends.

#4. Oklahoma St - Lost at home vs Texas AM - See Colorado St

#5 - Memphis - Lost at RPI #176 Rice. Their RPI was 27 before yesterday, but they had no quality wins and they now have two bad losses.

#6 - St. Mary's - Just a bad week for these guys - losing to a sub 300 RPI team, and then getting beaten at home by a similar quality opponent. Need to take care of Gonzaga at home this week.

#7 Duquesne - Needed a road win over Dayton. They had an opportunity to move up with all the teams above making falls,


----------



## coolpohle

Michigan is a team no my radar. They are really young but finally starting to play pretty well. They have three chances to pick up some nice wins down the stretch.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Moves after yesterday

Now Out - Virginia Tech, Colorado St
Now In - Georgia, UAB


----------



## JuniorNoboa

coolpohle said:


> Michigan is a team no my radar. They are really young but finally starting to play pretty well. They have three chances to pick up some nice wins down the stretch.


I think it probably comes down to the home game for them against Wisconsin which is winnable.


----------



## coolpohle

JN - I'm curious as to your thoughts on Southern Miss. I currently have them in, but they are not on your first eight out.

The Conference USA seems like the best non-BCS conference after the Mountain West and I think they'll get three bids. They lack a standout team but most of the conference is competitive and there aren't many easy games. They currently sit with an RPI at 44 and a projected one of 40.

They didn't do much OOC - only somewhat notable win over Cal on the road with losses @ Ole Miss and to Colorado St. at a neutral site. They sit at 20-6 (9-4 CUSA) with wins over UTEP and @ UAB.


----------



## coolpohle

Also, do you think Wichita St.'s resume is good enough to get them in if they don't win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament? I don't think it is. They didn't beat anyone OOC and that home loss to VCU in the bracket buster game was very costly, imo. Also lost to SIU and UNI at home. I think the MVC ends up being a one bid league.


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## JuniorNoboa

Agree with your thoughts on Wichita St - the MVC took a pounding to its rep on bracket busters.

Not many bubble implication results the last few days with the exception of Michigan St beating Minnesota on the road. Minny is probably now out and heading in the wrong direction, and Michigan St is starting to tidy up its resume - still on the bubble but comfortably in right now.

Some intriquing games tonight:

Teams that have a chance to lock a bid with an upset win:
Colorado St at BYU
Cincy at Georgetown

Bubble teams with legit good opportunities at a marquee win:
Wisconsin at* Michigan*
*Baylor* at Missouri

Toss up game to settle the middle of the Big 12
Kansas St at Nebraska



Chance for a good road win
VCU at Drexel
Florida St at Maryland


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## coolpohle

What a brutal, brutal loss for Michigan. I was one of just a few with them in, and this is one they should have won. Morris misses the front end of a 1-1 late and then Gasser banks in a three at the buzzer. Crazy.


----------



## Nimreitz

hahaha, reminds of Butch's bank at Hoosier Assembly Hall a few years ago.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Not a great night for the bubble. The Big East seems to be solidifying its number of seeds while the other conferences seem to be getting more jumbled.

Tbe only team that accomplished something really significant today is Cincinnati. They were in as of today, but had a killer schedule in front of them. This puts them over the top. The Big East is going to get at least 10. Now its up to Marquette to see if they can somehow get to 10-8 in conference. With UConn and Providnece at home, and at Seton Hall, that is possible.

The ACC is a mess. Two teams with inside tracks at bids lost to non tourney teams in FSU and BC - BC had the most damaging lost of the night losing at HOME against a medicoore Miami team. They move from barely in to out. The ACC could have two teams in and five teams on the bubble come selection Sunday.

The Big Ten is uncertain as well - with three teams in, and a bunch still potentially on the bubble. Michigan blew a chance to really help themselves. Teams like Minny and Illinois continue to have their resumes weaken. Michigan St is pretty safe once it beats Iowa at home, which should happen.

The Big 12 is starting to get some clarity -- four teams in for sure, and Kansas St looking good after winning on the road at Nebraska -- that was about the second biggest bubble win tonight. With the ACC a mess, I can certainly see one of Nebraska, Colorado or Baylor getting in at 8-8. They all have weak resumes.

The SEC is playing out to be a six team league. The teams with the weakest records of those six had nice OOC resumes, so that helps. Georgia has the weakest resume, but it gets the chance with SEC east quality victoires.

The PAC-10 is a three team league.

So discounting surprise tournament winners, conferences seem like this:

Big East 10 to 11
Big Ten 5 to 6
SEC 5 to 6
Big 12 5 to 7
ACC 3 to 5
Pac-10 3 to 3

Total 31 to 38 (say 35 teams)


----------



## Rather Unique

poor Michigan man, they've been hooping pretty well too. Sucks that this might be the nail in the coffin for em, this was their chance to get that marquee W on the resume. especially after dropping one to the whacked out Illini. They need a sweep of @ Minny/MSU just to have a shot in hell..


----------



## JuniorNoboa

As for non BCS teams it was a subpar night.

Colorado St blew a chance at a Marquee Victory it needed (as unlikely as it seemed)

UTEP suffered a bad loss (they were marginal to begin the day)

VCU lost at Drexel (it had a marginal profile, it could have used a nice road win)

Duquesne lost at home to Rhode Island (if Dayton didn't totally do them in, this game did)

UNLV had a good night winning at the Pit which is never easy. They were pretty safe but now can afford one slip up down the stretch.

Assuming there are 33 seeds available for these conferences, where are the 8 bids coming from?

MWC gets 2 at larges
A-10 gets 1
Colonial gets 1


After that? There could be possibly four seeds available for teams that would currently be on the bubble (of course there are bubble busters as well)

Richmond 
Colorado St
CUSA (UAB, Memphis, UTEP, Southern Miss - note one will win conference)
Gonzaga 
Butler
VCU
MVC (Missouri St, Wichita St - note one will win conference)


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Rather Unique said:


> poor Michigan man, they've been hooping pretty well too. Sucks that this might be the nail in the coffin for em, this was their chance to get that marquee W on the resume. especially after dropping one to the whacked out Illini. They need a sweep of @ Minny/MSU just to have a shot in hell..



It really was a blown opporunity especially when you consider since Saturday the strenght of the bubble has been declining downwards - we are looking for teams to do something significant.


----------



## coolpohle

It's a good thing they added three more spots this year.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

coolpohle said:


> It's a good thing they added three more spots this year.


I sense that comment is somewhat in jest!


----------



## JuniorNoboa

THE BIG EAST IS GOING TO GET 11 TEAMS IN THE TOURNAMENT

26 Days ago, as Duke was about to play St. John's, there was three Big East teams that made the 11 seed scenario still very questionable - St. John's, Cincy, and Marquette.

Since that day St. John's has kicked ass at home knocking off Duke, UConn and Pitt. Add road wins at Cincy at Marquette, and it has climbed from last in / last out status to pod contender.

Cincy has went 4-2 in conference including quality wins against Lousivlle, and this week at Georgetown. They are virtually in at this point.

Marquette has went 4-3 in conference, including wins over Syracuse and at UConn. They are in very good shape right now. They are still not quite a lock because they still need a win or possibly two down the stretch -- it can't blow Providence at home basically.

Unfortuntaely unless Marquette really slips, it looks like the Big East tournament could have zero bubble implications.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

A few interesting results so far tonight involving teams from Wisconsin:

Marquette winning at UConn puts them in good position down the stretch.

Cleveland St loses at home to Milwaukee. This is a loss that could really haunt them if they end up losing the Horizon. Losing to inferior opponents at home really hurts when your a mid major bubble team/


----------



## JuniorNoboa

While Penn St has been largely ignored if it can win tonight on the road at Northwestern (leading at the half), and win of its last two against Ohio St (H) or Minnesota (A), then it will at least be on the bubble discussion entering the B10 tournament.

They really do have a bad OOC though so that will go against them - but in the scenario above their RPI would be around 50.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Last night was an intriguing night despite limited lack of games, as Gonzaga also beat St. Mary's in OT. 

Marquette and Gonzaga did what so few bubble teams seem to do at this time of the year - win a key game on the ROAD.


----------



## coolpohle

St. Mary's sure is falling apart in a hurry. A nice win for Gonzaga, but I think they still have work to do. 

I think Penn St. is in. Not a great resume, but so many other teams are playing themselves out. And they have beaten Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan St., and Minnesota. That seems to be more than a lot of other comparable teams can say.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Here is my field entering this weekend:

L - Lock
A - Above the Bubble right now, but cannot afford multiple slip ups
B - At the Bubble
* - Auto


Big East (11)
L - Pitt*
L - Notre Dame
L - Georgetown
L - Louisville
L - St. John's 
L - Syracuse 
L - Villanova
L - UConn
L - West Virginia
A - Cincinnati
A - Marquette

Big 12 
L - Kansas*
L - Texas
L - Missouri
L - Texas AM
A - Kansas St

Big Ten
L - Ohio St*
L - Purdue
L - Wisconsin
A - Michigan St
A - Illinois

Mountain
L - BYU*
L - San Diego St
L - UNLV

ACC
L - Duke*
L - UNC
A - Florida St

SEC
L - Florida*
L - Kentucky
L - Vanderbilt
L - Tennessee (9-5 vs top 50, 8-6 vs non top 50 - odd)
A - Alabama
A - Georgia

PAC-10
L - Arizona*
L - Washington
A - UCLA

CUSA
A - Memphis*

A-10
L - Xavier*
L - Temple


Colonial
L - George Mason*
A - Old Dominion

Horizon
B - Butler*

MVC
Missouri St*

WAC
L - Utah St*

WCC
B - Gonzaga*

IVY
Harvard*

ASUN
Belmont*

Definetely One Bid Leagues (15)

MAAC - Fairfield
ASUN - Belmont
NE - Long Island
SUM - Oakland
SOUTH - Charleston
MAC - Kent St
BSOUTH - Coastal Carolina
SB - Florida Atlantic
BWEST - Long Beach St
PAT - Bucknell
BSKY - Montana
OVC - Murray St
AEAST - Vermont
SLAND - McNeese St
MEAC - Bethune Cookman
SWAC - Texas Southern


The above identifies 62 teams - note that bubble teams like Gonzaga, Butler, Harvard and Memphis are identified as projected conferenc champions, opening up spots right now that may not be there coming selection sunday. They could also be bubble busters if they lose their conference tournamen, as well as teams such as Utah St.

Picking those next six teams will not be easy, and not because they have overwhelmingly good resumes:

Here are my contenders for the final six spots:
RPI 34 - UAB
RPI 40 - Southern Miss
RPI 42 - Cleveland St
44 - Colorado St
47 - Boston College
48 - Wichita St
49 - Minnesota
53 - Penn St
55 - St. Mary's
57 - VCU
61 - Richmond
64 - Virginia Tech
65 - Clemson
66 - Michigan
74 - USC
75 - Nebraska
83 - Baylor
85 - Colorado


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Here is an under the radar At-Large Possibility

USC

Their RPI is only 74, and their conference record is a modest 8-5 in Pac-10. But they are 4-4 against top 50 teams. Not many bubble teams have wins the quality of Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and UCLA.

If they take the game at Washington next week, they would probably move in. If they can beat one of the Washington's on the road, they will be a respectuable 10-6 in conference.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Decide their extremely poor run, I still think Minny can recover if it can handle Michigan and Penn St at home. 8-10 in the Big Ten, but with neutral wins over West Virignia and UNC, they may get in -- of course their team has changed alot since then. The game between Penn St and Minnesota to end the regular season could almost be a play-in type game. So I can only have one of the two in.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Saturday Bubble Games

*Teams with a Reasonabke Chance at a Marquee Victory* (These Teams may jump above the bubble line with one win or lock a spot)

Duke at *Virginia Tech* 28%

Other then a solid conference record of 8-5, their is little to like about Tech. They have an RPI of 64, and are 0-5 in top 50 games. Needless to say they need this win. A loss, and its another year and another whine by Seth Greenberg when they miss the tourney.

Texas at *Colorado* 19%

Colorado has an RPI of only 85, but already have a solid top 50 resume with a 4-6 record, but they are all against the lower repute top 50 teams. A win tomorrow would solidify all that, and they could be a team that gets an at large with a 70ish RPI.

*Reasonable Chance at Top 50 Victory*

Texas AM at *Baylor* 55%

Even with a win here, Baylor lacks a resume, either in conference record, RPI or top 50 record to get in. But its a good start

Wichita St at *Missouri St* 52% 

Missouri St has little meat to its resume other then a good conferenc record. But if it could sweep the season series against the solid Wichita St it does elevate their at large profile.


Other

Michigan at *Minnesota* 69%

Im not keen on KP's assessment for this one, more of a toss up. But Minny has their shot to recover by beating Michigan and Penn St at home down the stetch.


----------



## coolpohle

USC is an interesting choice. Some very impressive wins on their schedule (and a close two point loss at Kansas) which makes you wonder how they lost to some of the teams they did.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

In the Big East,it has seemed like there has been an abnormal amount of wins by road teams in "even" matchups this year:

I looked at the records of road teams in games between the teams that still had shots at the NCAA tournament:

Big East (11 Teams) 21-37, 37%
Big 12 (8 Teams) 12-32, 27%
Big 10 (8 Teams) 8-23, 26%
ACC (7 Teams), 4-18, 18%

Not only does the Big East benefit from playing each other in terms of RPI, it has a huge number of games against quality opponents (leading to quality wins), and also an abnormal of quality road wins compared to other top conferences/

Whether they are better or not, these factors all lead to very high seeds. I think eight top five seeds is quite possible.


----------



## coolpohle

Yeah, the extra weight given to road victories is going to mean a lot of high seeds. 

Boston College and Florida St. both won today to solidify their stock, while Missouri St. made its case with a win over Wichita St. if they end up needing an at-large bid.

Nebraska and VCU are the big losers thus far today.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Some interesting results so far today. 

BYU beats San Diego St, and sweeps their season series. BYU is a #1 seed with an 8-1 record against top 50. Let's remember this team has also beat Arizona, Utah St and St. Mary's OOC. Despite being 25-2, I think San Diego St may be tracking to a 3 - it is only 3-2 in top 50 games. Other then being UNLV twice, this teams lacks any victories of significance.

Memphis gets crushed at UTEP, after a bad loss at Rice last week. They are probably safely in as an at large due to the sweep of UAB and Southern Miss, but they are playing with fire. It needs to take make sure it avoids a bad loss at ECU or Tulane next week.

Syracuse plays itself into a 3 seed by winning at Georgetown. They had their stinky stretch at the beginning of the month but have nicely recovered. Its hard to deny an 8-4 top 50 record, including 4 true road wins, and 1 neutral victory. I can't see them falling below a three, and with a few BET wins who knows if they can move up. They many only have two games left - next week at Depaul, and then the quarters of the BET.

St. John's wins by 13 at Nova. The Jonnies are looking like they could get to a pod seed. RPI of 13, 8 top 50 wins, plus marquee wins over Duke and Pitt. Nova is just not a very good team right now - they have two brutal games to finish the year and will probably be 9-9. I can see them slipping all the way to an 8/9 type team.

Kansas St resume was being solid, but they pretty much locked up a bid today by beating Missouri at home.

VCU had a decent bubble resume, but lost at home to James Madison. Its hard to make up losses in the CAA - this was their last regular season game. I think they need to win the CAA now.

Missouri St completes its sweep of Wichita St and wins the MVC title. Their resume lacks substance beyond the title, the sweep of Wich St (no quality wins) and the 44 RPI. But I think they have a shot at an large if they happen to lose next week. I don't think Wichita St has that same luxury - it needed this game.

Nebraska was the hot team on the bubble last week after beating Texas. They lose all that buzz by losing this week to Kansas St at home, and on the road at Iowa St. At minimum it needed to split these games. They are now down to 84 in the RPI, and their shot at an at large is pretty much dead.

Florida St beats Miami, and gets another win without Singelton. I think at 10 wins in the ACC, they will probably be OK, given the Duke win. They would be wise to get word out in the media that Singelton will be back.

And New Orleans lost to Victory U. No implications on anything, but what an amusing team name -- Victory U.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

coolpohle said:


> Yeah, the extra weight given to road victories is going to mean a lot of high seeds.
> 
> Boston College and Florida St. both won today to solidify their stock, while Missouri St. made its case with a win over Wichita St. if they end up needing an at-large bid.
> 
> Nebraska and VCU are the big losers thus far today.


Yep you nailed the two big losers. VCU has no regular season games left, and needs to win the CAA.

Nebraska had to be thinking it could go 2-0 this past week. With Mizzou, at Colorado, and the B12 tourney left, they can still get in without an Auto -- but I don't think they are good enough to do all that.


----------



## coolpohle

Michigan gets the road victory over Minnesota...

Colorado picks up a huge win over Texas.

An interesting team is Alabama, who lost at Ole Miss today. They have an impressive 11-3 conference record, but the SEC is really bad this year - especially their half. They did beat Kentucky and win @ Tennessee, but will that make up for a horrific non conference resume? They went 8-6 with the best win being over Lipscomb, and went 0-3 in the Paradise Jam tourney that was won by Old Dominion.


----------



## zagsfan20

My Zags are hitting their stride at the right time. Watch out for freshman Sam Dower folks. He has a knack for scoring, reminds me a lot of Zach Randolph.


----------



## coolpohle

They Ivy league became more interesting today as Harvard lost and Princeton won.


----------



## coolpohle

Colorado St. and Southern Miss both lose conference road games.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Last 5 In
Richmond
Boston College
St. Mary's
Baylor
Colorado

Last 5 Out
Penn St
Michigan
USC
Southern Miss
Alabama

Im tired - that may change by tomorrow morning.


----------



## DaBruins

After crushing Arizona, the Bruins have to contend for a top Pac 10 spot (pending the Washington road trip next week). Arizona had a brutal weekend. Went from a top 2 or 3 seed down to 5 seed territory.


----------



## coolpohle

I can't justify Baylor being in. A decent win for them yesterday, but their resume is too weak. Did nothing OOC and would have to beat Texas in the finale to even get a look from me.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

DaBruins said:


> After crushing Arizona, the Bruins have to contend for a top Pac 10 spot (pending the Washington road trip next week). Arizona had a brutal weekend. Went from a top 2 or 3 seed down to 5 seed territory.


I have UCLA comfortably in as an eight seed right now, but I can see the argument for them being a few seeds higher.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

coolpohle said:


> I can't justify Baylor being in. A decent win for them yesterday, but their resume is too weak. Did nothing OOC and would have to beat Texas in the finale to even get a look from me.


I can see that argument. Perhaps one of the Big Ten teams ahead of them.

I do think they can beat Texas next weekend however -- after Nebraska, Colorado have done the same -- the value of beating Texas would then be taking a bit of a dive.


----------



## coolpohle

UCLA is an 8 on my board as well. No respect for Arizona as I give them a 7.


----------



## Jonathan Watters

I'm always amazed at the amount of time spent hand wringing over who makes the tournament and who gets what seed. 

How about a some discussion on who is going to win the bastard?


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Jonathan Watters said:


> I'm always amazed at the amount of time spent hand wringing over who makes the tournament and who gets what seed.
> 
> How about a some discussion on who is going to win the bastard?


Good question without a sane answer.


----------



## coolpohle

Jonathan Watters said:


> I'm always amazed at the amount of time spent hand wringing over who makes the tournament and who gets what seed.
> 
> How about a some discussion on who is going to win the bastard?


I like to do it and sadly have not a ton else to do on a Sunday.

Kansas is probably going to be my pick. They have the experience and the offensive firepower in the Morris twins and Reed and Morningstar from the perimeter. I don't think Texas has enough talent outside of Hamilton to win it all. Ohio St. is very good, but I think their youth would catch up to them at some point.


----------



## Jonathan Watters

coolpohle said:


> I like to do it and sadly have not a ton else to do on a Sunday.
> 
> Kansas is probably going to be my pick. They have the experience and the offensive firepower in the Morris twins and Reed and Morningstar from the perimeter. I don't think Texas has enough talent outside of Hamilton to win it all. Ohio St. is very good, but I think their youth would catch up to them at some point.


I hear ya on the nothing else to do, but not on the sad part. Thank god I have nothing else to do but watch college bball today! 

Kansas seems to be well put together with a handful of elite roleplayers, but I question the BS coaching and the mentality of their players in close games. 

Texas is a completely mystery to me, but I'm not as concerned about the offense as this team's mid season success was all about defense and their recent lack thereof was, well...a lack thereof. This is now a pattern of 2nd half defensive collapse, but they are obviously capable of locking up just about any team when they put their mind to it. They seemed to be developing the defensive chemistry that Florida did on their first championship run, but now I have no idea. 

I really question Ohio St, they have Sullinger and a bunch of nice shooters but no real dribble penetrators and a very large hole at PG. Teams with athletic perimeter rotations can really bother OSU, they have to be able to get the ball inside and kick to shooters and when this process gets disrupted they are mediocre. 

Duke will probably pull it together and make a run, but isn't an overwhelming favorite without Irving. Limited athletically outside of Smith. 

I kinda like Pitt. They lack a big time athlete, but Gibbs is a big time scorer - maybe just not capable of carrying them against great competition for multiple games in a row. I don't see them getting upset early, maybe that is the reason you pick them or Duke. 

Washington, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin, Xavier, Richmond, BYU, SDSU, St John's, Georgetown, Syracuse...how much worse are they than the "favorites"? Seems like a lot less room between the elite and the middle of the Top 25 than in previous years, it might be a good year to take a longshot and see what happens.


----------



## coolpohle

I'm not sure how much of a sleeper St. John's is, but I could see them going pretty far. They are playing great at a good time of the season, and they have a ton of seniors who have proven they can beat anyone.

Maybe biased but I do think this is one great Badgers team we have here. Leuer and Taylor is a great 1-2 combo and we have a bunch of guys that fill their roles really well. We won't beat ourselves, either.


----------



## Jonathan Watters

Jonathan Watters said:


> I hear ya on the nothing else to do, but not on the sad part. Thank god I have nothing else to do but watch college bball today!
> 
> Kansas seems to be well put together with a handful of elite roleplayers, but I question the BS coaching and the mentality of their players in close games.
> 
> Texas is a completely mystery to me, but I'm not as concerned about the offense as this team's mid season success was all about defense and their recent lack thereof was, well...a lack thereof. This is now a pattern of 2nd half defensive collapse, but they are obviously capable of locking up just about any team when they put their mind to it. They seemed to be developing the defensive chemistry that Florida did on their first championship run, but now I have no idea.
> 
> I really question Ohio St, they have Sullinger and a bunch of nice shooters but no real dribble penetrators and a very large hole at PG. Teams with athletic perimeter rotations can really bother OSU, they have to be able to get the ball inside and kick to shooters and when this process gets disrupted they are mediocre.
> 
> Duke will probably pull it together and make a run, but isn't an overwhelming favorite without Irving. Limited athletically outside of Smith.
> 
> I kinda like Pitt. They lack a big time athlete, but Gibbs is a big time scorer - maybe just not capable of carrying them against great competition for multiple games in a row. I don't see them getting upset early, maybe that is the reason you pick them or Duke.
> 
> Washington, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin, Xavier, Richmond, BYU, SDSU, St John's, Georgetown, Syracuse...how much worse are they than the "favorites"? Seems like a lot less room between the elite and the middle of the Top 25 than in previous years, it might be a good year to take a longshot and see what happens.





coolpohle said:


> I'm not sure how much of a sleeper St. John's is, but I could see them going pretty far. They are playing great at a good time of the season, and they have a ton of seniors who have proven they can beat anyone.
> 
> Maybe biased but I do think this is one great Badgers team we have here. Leuer and Taylor is a great 1-2 combo and we have a bunch of guys that fill their roles really well. We won't beat ourselves, either.


Agreed on Wisconsin. They have the lowest team TO rate in the country, the 4th lowest in the entire KenPom database that goes back to 2003. The only high major team with a lower TO rate since 2003 was the 2006 West Virginia team that lost to Texas in the Sweet 16. 

Jordan Taylor's 4.1 Ast/To ratio is absurd, and he is definitely being slept on for 1st team AA. According to the stats I keep, there is no high major D1 guard that can touch him - given that Jimmer Fredette plays in the MWC, I don't even know if he is having a better year...


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I started the season with Duke as the most overwhelming favourite in my eyes in a number of years, especially after the Irving start. They can still contend, but without Irving they just seem like a basic two seed right now.

I then moved into Texas as the favourites. Perhaps I let the Canadian duo of Joseph and Thompson influence my thought process, but they were so dominant through the first 10 games of the Big 12 season, that I thought they were gelling as a young team, had a good D, and were truly going to be the best team going forward. But now they have struggled and the last lost vs Kansas St, has to get them off the 1 line, and also move them down in contender status.

I like the depth of Kansas - also good experience and no obvious holes. The results for Ohio St are good, but the team just wins but does nothing to blow me away and say this is a final four team when I watch them. Purude has picked it up and has to be a contender.

Pitt has slowed down a bit, but then again it is competing at road games at St. John's and Louisville. But they seem to be in same Pitt mold of scrappy teams that seemingly struggle come tourney time. 

Notre Dame is so experienced - they can beat anybody because of the three, but I don't think that model could work for four or five games in a row.

I was thinking of riding BYU, didn't want to believe in them, and now the Davies decision makes it easy to see them as merely a contender.


So if I had to pick my favourites for the final four I would go with:
Kansas
Purdue
Duke 
Ohio St

With Pitt and Notre Dame as the closest contenders.


----------



## HB

So how high is UNC going to be ranked considering they might win the ACC?


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Some interesting events the last three days with respect to the bubble and other thoughts:

*THE ONE SEEDS*

A number one seed is becoming a stronger possibility for Notre Dame or Purdue. 

Texas is sliding off the one line after losing to Kansas St, Duke may not win the regular season ACC if they lose to UNC on Saturday, and BYU may be hurt by the Davies decision (certainly they need to win the MWC tourney now to erase doubts).

Safe one seeds
Kansas 
Ohio St
Pitt

Contenders for the final spot
Duke
BYU
Notre Dame
Purdue

I think if either Notre Dame or Purdue win out, including the conference tournament they will get the #1 seed. If both did Notre Dame would have the upper hand.

If neither of those teams win their tourney I think BYU steps into the number one seed if they can prove they can win without Davies by winning the MVC.

Finally if all the above scenarios fail, then Duke steps in by winning the ACC.

If all of these teams fail it will be interesting.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

HB said:


> So how high is UNC going to be ranked considering they might win the ACC?


I think their upside is a two seed, their downside probably a four at this point (five if the middle tier plays well in the conference tourneys). 

UNC can still play Duke two more times this year. Win both those games and they will get a 2 seed IMO. No chance at a 1 seed though as they did not have a chance at playing enough quality teams this year.

So Sweep Duke (or win the ACC tourney) = 2 Seed, with possible three if they don't face Duke in the tourney.
Split Duke = 3 Seed
Lose Duke on Sat, Lose in ACC Tourney (whomever) = 4, maybe a 5 seed


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## JuniorNoboa

As we speak Pitt tied at South Florida late in the first half. An awful loss here would have first seed implications as well - I just presumed victory.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

*Bubble Games This Week*

*Kansas St* has been very impressive at strengthening their resume the last few weeks. They have moved from outside the bubble after falling to 4-6 in the Big 12 to a team with potential for a pod seed upside with a good Big 12 tourney (Finals+). Great five game winning steak including wins over Kansas, Missouri, at Texas and at Nebraska.


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## JuniorNoboa

*TUESDAY*

There was alot of stuff that happened yesterday.

Penn St really needed something big down the stretch and had an opportunity at HOME, which is the best you can ask for in their situation. They got blown out by Ohio St. I think they need to get to the Big 10 finals. 7-12 vs RPI top 100, and 3-7 vs top 50 is not enough.

Illinois predictably loss to Purdue. It shouldn't lose at home vs Indiana, and will be safe with a win, but if it somehow loses...... they will be under alot of pressure. No one likes to be the team two games under .500 asking for a bid. Illinois would probably be the best at large candidate at two games under .500 in the land... other then Minnesota if it can get there. Actually the Illini and Minny may be the only at large candidates at less then .500 in conference.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Alabama blew a chance at a marquee win, but to win a road game at Florida would have lcoked them. They need a few wins including a big one in the SEC tourney.

Nebraska got a crucial win against Missouri to get back on the bubble talk (they have been a yo yo). If it can somehow win at Colorado, it will be probably be out in my view, but would at least be in the discussion.

Baylor lost a game at OSU - a game it could not lose - it is well off the bubble at this point. CP was correct to question my choice of Baylor earlier in this thread - their OOC is garbage, so is there RPI. If they beat Texas they can be in the discussion although on the outside on my view -- not much different then if Nebraska gets to 8-8.

BC wins at Virginia Tech. Winning a road game against a fellow bubble team is huge at this point. BC will get to 9-7, with an RPI around 40 after it beats Wake. They are 1-6 vs top 50. Really not a very good resume, but this year probably enough. But they will still not have a good sleep on Sat night.

I take sick pleasure in Virgina Tech losing at home and getting back on the bubble - there was such confidence at Blacksburg after the game on Saturday (during the broadcast) that Tech had got over the top. If it loses at Clemson, and in the ACC tourney first round, I think Tech will have went from high to its familiar lows once again outside the tourney. A Duke win can only carry you so far.

I guess Oklahoma St would also have a shot at 7-9 (but not as strong below .500 candidate as Minny or Illinois), three top 50 wins, OOC wins over feloow bubble teams in Missouri St and Alabama. It should be well short, but as their RPI will be around 50 they will be discussed in the committee room


BIGGEST WINNER - BC
BIGGEST LOSER - Virginia Tech


----------



## JuniorNoboa

*WEDNESDAY*

The biggest winner tonight will probably be UAB. A road win against a top 50 opponent in Southern Miss. Its a weak resume for a team which now has a #28 RPI, but that in itself should hold up well against this bubble,.

For Southern Miss, a home loss against a fellow bubble team is equally devestating.

Florida St wins despite losing at home. The fact that they were able to closely compete with a top four seed, proves they are at least tourney worthy without Singleton, and the committee will probably not discount their resume now for his injury.

Michigan St avoids a bad loss against Iowa - I think this was the only thing that could have put them back on the bubble. They are now a lock.

Memphis continues its 1-3 nosedive with a questionable loss at East Carolina. They probably move from in to out at this point. They did beat UAB and Southern Miss twice so they still 4 top 50 wins which is great for the bubble, but they are shallow wins upon deeper investigation.

Iowa St plays spolier again in basically identical scenarios. Nebraska last week, and now Colorado. Both teams beat Texas to make healthy moves up the bubble, and then lose to Iowa St to get shot down just as quickly.


None of Baylor, Colorado, Nebrasks, or Okie St are going to have good resumes, unless one makes a run in their conference tourney -- basically need to beat Kansas at this point.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Marquette needs to be careful - losing at Seton Hall this weekend would tempt fate, after losing to Cincy at home tonight


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Interesting games going on right now:

Clemson hanging around at Duke
New Mexico up 15 at BYU in the first half (bye one seed)
Minnesota finally dead as they are about to lose at Northwestern


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Watching the Duke-Clemson game, reminds me why I need to move Duke up my favourites list.

Because they are playing well? Nope. But no team gets call anywhere close to the same degree as Duke when things are close.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Well BYU is out of the #1 seed picture after their loss at home to New Mexico. 

That brings it down to six teams now:

Kansas - Lock
Ohio St - Lock
Pitt - Highly Probable

Duke, Purdue and Notre Dame battle for the final spot.


----------



## HKF

Isn't it obvious that Duke is going to get the 4th #1 seed? The ACC is a pathetic league this year.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

HKF said:


> Isn't it obvious that Duke is going to get the 4th #1 seed? The ACC is a pathetic league this year.


I don't think so - they are certainly ahead of Notre Dame and Purdue right now, but all the teams have the chance to singificantly upgrade or downgrade their resume.

For example if Duke loses to UNC on Saturday, they lose the ACC regular season title.


----------



## Drewbs

JuniorNoboa said:


> Watching the Duke-Clemson game, reminds me why I need to move Duke up my favourites list.
> 
> Because they are playing well? Nope. But no team gets call anywhere close to the same degree as Duke when things are close.


Welcome to forever ago. The fact that Duke has played 3 good teams on the road all season, and lost to all 3 tells you something.

Coach K has the ACC refs in his pocket. They are afraid of him, and with his status they will basically do anything he wants. Add to the fact that the crowd at home is downright vitriolic to the refs any time they make a call against Duke. And Coach K teaches his players to exploit the officiating. It's pathetic. It's the reason why Duke was so unsuccessful in the tournament during the years prior to last year. Because their brand of flopping, grabbing, hand checking, holding doesn't go over well with other referees. 

And Duke fans will tell you that there is nothing wrong with it, and that it's the coach's job to work the officials. The BIGGEST problem I have with Duke's style of play is how EVERYONE on their team will take a charge on every play, even when it means undercutting a driving player. Ryan Kelly and Kyle Singler does this all the time, and almost always undercut because they're slow and they don't ever get into position on time and there is always at least a handful of players per game when a driving player goes tumbling over Singler or Kelly who undercut him on a drive to the basket. And of course, those two will get the call almost all the time, regardless of whether or not they got there on time. Disgraceful, reckless and dangerous. Kyle Singler is also the biggest whiner in college basketball. Dude thinks he's never committed a foul in his life, and when he doesn't get a call on the offensive end, he throws is fists like a child as if being an All American last year entitles you to Kobe Bryant calls. What a joke, I hope he falls out of the first round with his shenanigans.


----------



## coolpohle

Drewbs said:


> Welcome to forever ago. The fact that Duke has played 3 good teams on the road all season, and lost to all 3 tells you something.


I don't buy that. They dominated Kansas St. on the road, and the FSU and Virginia Tech games could have gone either way.

I get much more concerned about teams that don't win at home, because that really shows a weakness. Duke wasn't any better on the road last year than they were this year. They even lost by 14 at NC State.


----------



## HB

St. John's is perplexing.


----------



## Jonathan Watters

If the season ended tonight, Jordan Taylor is the national player of the year and I don't know that its very close.


----------



## apelman42

Jonathan Watters said:


> If the season ended tonight, Jordan Taylor is the national player of the year and I don't know that its very close.


Lol, I like reading your posts man.

He won't because of all the Jimmer Fredette hype, but it'd be pretty cool if he entered the discussion in the last week here.


----------



## Nimreitz

Jonathan Watters said:


> If the season ended tonight, Jordan Taylor is the national player of the year and I don't know that its very close.


More posts like this. + rep

Think he could beat out Sullinger (or Johnson I suppose) for BTPOY? After the Pomeroy stats get updated he will lead the nation in offensive efficiency for players using over 20% of their team's possessions, as well as over 24%. The only reason he doesn't have the required 28% at the top level is because he's a point guard who has a lot of assists (and likewise if he turned the ball over more--5th fewest turnovers per possession in the nation--he'd easily be tops in the nation by any reasonable metric--technically Diebler is #1, but he only uses like 12% of his team's possessions).


----------



## coolpohle

Nolan Smith deserves a lot of attention, too. Duke is doing great without Irving and Singler hasn't played as well as he's played in previous seasons. Nolan's had to take on a bigger role and has been outstanding.


----------



## coolpohle

Some notable games today:

Georgia at Alabama

Virginia Tech at Clemson

Michigan St. at Michigan

Texas at Baylor


----------



## Jonathan Watters

Nimreitz said:


> More posts like this. + rep
> 
> Think he could beat out Sullinger (or Johnson I suppose) for BTPOY? After the Pomeroy stats get updated he will lead the nation in offensive efficiency for players using over 20% of their team's possessions, as well as over 24%. The only reason he doesn't have the required 28% at the top level is because he's a point guard who has a lot of assists (and likewise if he turned the ball over more--5th fewest turnovers per possession in the nation--he'd easily be tops in the nation by any reasonable metric--technically Diebler is #1, but he only uses like 12% of his team's possessions).


I highly doubt he will make first team AA or even win B10 POY. He undoubtedly deserves both, but the media hasn't been hyping him since November like they have with Jimmer and Sullinger. 

I realize Nolan Smith is a good college basketball player and has carried the Blue Devils this year, but he would be the worst NPOY that I can remember...


----------



## apelman42

Marquette in a must-win situation on Tuesday. I love seeing Buzz hot under the collar.

UNC can't miss. How ****ty was Larry Drew III?


----------



## HB

If Duke is a contender this year, so is UNC period!


----------



## bball2223

I don't think Duke is this year without Irving. UNC has really come around though and I think we are a better all-around team than Duke. If we get further than the Sweet 16 I would be very surprised, but anything can happen.


----------



## HB

Yeah I am talking about Duke as is, i.e. without Irving, but it hasn't stopped pundits from thinking they can win it all.


----------



## Nimreitz

They're the defending champs and therefore are presumed to be able to repeat.


----------



## apelman42

HB said:


> If Duke is a contender this year, so is UNC period!


Can't disagree there. UNC has looked much better in both meetings.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I don't think there are any great #1 seeds this year - UNC definetely has some chances, better then a 3 seed in a prior year, and they may also be playing better then seed right now (first few months weighs them down).


----------



## JuniorNoboa

The number one seed is starting to really clear up as enter tournament week.

Kansas - LOCK
Ohio St - LOCK
Pitt - LOCK

Duke has been eliminated as a contender for the #1 seed by not winning the ACC regular season title (UNC had too many early mishaps to be considered).

That leaves three contenders for the last spot (in order)

Notre Dame - Controls their own destiny

Purdue - Can only overtake Notre Dame if they win the Big 10 tourney, and Notre Dame does not)

BYU - Still has the resume of a 1 seed, but not sure how the committee will react. If they can win the MWC and knock out SD St., and both the above lose, they could still get it.

My projection right now is that Notre Dame is the fourth #1 seed.

You know who has developed a great resume - Florida. They will not get a #1, but they have to be considered for #2.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Some interesting bubble results today:

*Winners:*

Clemson - Beat Virginia Tech. 9-7 in ACC. 8-7 vs top 100, 2 top 50 wins. They now have basically the exact same resume as Virginia Tech

Richmond - Beat a top 100 in Duquesne. Not a great resume, but keep winning as the other bubble teams lose and they should be in most people's brackets - I believe they are safe come next Sunday unless we have more busters then expected. RPI now at a more respectable 54. Still a sketchy 5-6 record vs top 100.

Alabama - Another top 50 win - they are 3-3 against the top 50. The RPI is bad at 78, but its hard to argue 12-4 in the SEC even in the East. They needed the win over Georgia to stay tight on the bubble line.

Michigan - Get to .500 in one of the two best conferences in America. Their RPI of 53 is reasonable, 3 top 50 wins, 9-11 vs top 100. Its probably good enough against this bubble.

VCU - Still a weak bubble case, but OK RPI and OK top 100 record. They won because they put themselves in a position to beat George Mason, which would really move them up the bubble line.

Missouri St - Makes the MVC Final. It will be a debatable resume if they lose to Indiana St, but with an RPI of 37. and making to final rather then a tourney collapse they will be discussed

UTEP - Avoids a road trap, andWins and puts themsevles on the outside edge of the bubble. Will need to make at least the CUSA final -- even then its a stretch perhaps.

Old Dominion - Avoided a bad loss in the CAA tourney, which i thought was the only thing that could lead to them being questioned.

Butler - Beat Cleveland St (RPI 44) to make finals. IMO, with Rep, 40 RPI, and 4-3 top 50 record they are clearly in no matter what happens tomorrow.

Harvard - Needed to win at least this game to get in at large discussion. If they lose the tiebreaker game against Princeton, there RPI will be around 40 - but 3-5 vs top 100 would likely be short. But it is a weak bubble.

UAB - Rpi of 28, Win CUSA at 12-4. I like their chances as an at large right now.

Colorado - Nice win of Nebraska to get 8-8 in the Big 12. Their RPI is still in seventies, but 5-6 vs top 50 is excellent for a bubble team. Needs to win at least one in Big 12 tourney.

USC - Big road win over Washington (not quite over). They have a similar resume to Colorado. RPI in the seventies but 5-4 vs top 50. I don't see them at all in any bubble talk - they definitely should be


*Losers:*

Colorado St - not that they should expect to beat SDSU on the road, but they probably needed something big

Baylor - Blew a chance at a big victory that seemed reasonable at home vs Texas. They are going to the NIT.

Virginia Tech - Back right on the bubble line, like is expected from this team. Is there win over Duke going to be valued that high.

Georgia - Would have become a lock with a win over Bama. They are now right on the bubble line. In a weak field an RPI of 41, with 3 top 50 wins looks good - until you realize they are 3-9 in top 50 games. I expect they will still be in.

Michigan St - Could have locked with a win over Michigan. I still think they will get in, given mostly their tough OOC schedule which the committee will reward.

Oklahoma St loses to Oklahoma - OUT.

Washington St loses at Home to UCLA - OUT

Cleveland St loses to Butler - OUT, nothing beyond the RPI of 44, including 0-5 top 50 record

Marquette - The biggest loser this week along with Virginia Tech. Lost at home vs Cincy, and on road at Seton Hall. All it needed to do was win one of those games. A win in the first round 11-14 Big East game does nothing for them -- they need to win round two game against West Virginia. They are going to sweat on Sunday.

Nebraska - If they were not already done, they are now after losing to Colorado.


----------



## stl775

UNC Asheville a 16 probably a play in game 
Morehead St. a 15 
Belmont a 13 
Right?


----------



## JuniorNoboa

stl775 said:


> UNC Asheville a 16 probably a play in game
> Morehead St. a 15
> Belmont a 13
> Right?


Agree on Asheville and Belmont - Belmont could get to 12 if there are an abnormal number of bracket busters I suppose.

I have Morehead as a 14, but I can see 15 right now. But given that there will be some tourney upsets weakending the at large pool from the smaller conferences, 14 seems likely. For the most part I am ranking on RPI right now.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

This is the Bubble I have right now

Teams In But on Bubble
Michigan
Boston College
Alabama
Marquette
Clemson

Final Four In (Play in Game)
Richmond
Georgia 
Colorado
Virginia Tech

First Four Out
Memphis
St. Mary's
USC
VCU

Next Teams Out
Penn St
UTEP
Colorado St


----------



## JuniorNoboa

1	
Ohio St	
Kansas	
Pitt	
Notre Dame

2	
BYU	
Purdue	
Duke	
Florida

3	
San Diego St	
UNC	
Syracuse	
Texas

4	
Lousiville	
Wisconsin	
St. Johns	
Kentucky

5	
Georgetown	
West Virginia	
Uconn	
Kansas St

6	
Xavier	
Texas AM	
Arizona	
Cincinnati

7	
George Mason	
Vanderbilt	
Utah St	
Tennessee

8	
Temple	
Villanova 
UNLV
Old Dominion

9	
Butler	
UCLA	
Illinois	
Missouri

10	
Washington 
Michigan St	
Florida St
Boston College

11	
Harvard
Michigan	
Marquette	
Alabama

12	
Virginia Tech / Richmond	
Clemson	
Gonzaga	
Georgia / Colorado

13	
Oakland	
Belmont	
UAB	
Missouri St

14	
Kent St	
Bucknell	
Charleston	
Morehead St

15	
Fairfield	
Long Island	
Vermont	
Long Beach St

16	
Bethune Cookman	/ Texas Southern	
McNeese State /	UNC Asheville
Northern Colorado
Florida Atlantic


----------



## Nimreitz

17-13 for MSU. 9-9 in a pretty weak Big Ten outside the top 3. I don't care if there are 68 teams and it's a weak bubble, that is a **** team who shouldn't go dancing.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Nimreitz said:


> 17-13 for MSU. 9-9 in a pretty weak Big Ten outside the top 3. I don't care if there are 68 teams and it's a weak bubble, that is a **** team who shouldn't go dancing.


They do have 13 losses, but only one is outside the top 100. 

My main points for including them are (which is not the same as saying they deserve to get in):
1) The committee will reward teams for playing strong teams OOC. They have rewarded bubble teams that do that the last few years and it is one of the things they have harped on. Michigan St is on the bubble, but will be chosen as an example of what they want teams to do. 

2) Even if you don't buy 1) are they worse then ACC teams (V Tech, Clemson, Boston College), Georgia, Colorado, Marquette -- does teams I have out like USC. Memphis, St. Mary's, Wichita St, VCU or Penn St have a good enough resume to overtake them.

Its a bad group, I would rather a mid major be given the chance, but I know that won't happen. Michigan St is quite safe as long as their is not alot of bubble busters.


----------



## coolpohle

Michigan St. is safe, pretty safe in my eyes. No, they probably don't deserve to be. But that's what you get when three more teams are put in when there isn't a need for it.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I think the field is so weak right now at the bottom that I'm thinking of a scenario of 72 teams -- sound strange. Perhaps but hear me out. I'm not sold on the idea either.

The thing is from about team 60 to 68 it really is alot of crap - the things we are distinguishing them are very minute. If you can't distinguish team 65 from team 71, let's put them all in -- but punish them all as well. Only punishing four teams with an extra game seems too arbitrary for me. (And then add the fact that they can be placed at 11/12/13)

I have also argued that the worst seed to get is an 8/9 seed because of the roadblock you hit in round two. Teams would rather be 10/11 rather then 8/9 to have a shot at weekend #2 which is a real accomplishment.

So let's give 8/9 seeds to the bubble teams (the last 16 at larges). Why choose only four out of a weak pool - hit them all and get rid of the useless 16/16 play in games.

So my solution is 72 teams:
16 Last at Larges compete each other in "Round One" for play in games. The winners would vie for the spots normally occupied by 8/9 seeds, to get the right to play the number one seed in the round of 32. It could also be viewed as a reward for the 1 seeds.

It will add an extra layer for teams to aim for as well - to avoid the group of 16.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Is Missouri St a bracket buster if they lose today? 

RPI around 42-45, an MVC Regular Season Championship at 15-3 (the MVC is down), 0 top 50 wins, 3-6 vs top 100.

My opinion is they would be an extra nuisance if you are on the bubble, but based on the above would probably not be selected.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Back to my 72 team idea - the last thing this tournament needs is more bad at larges - I retract my idea.


----------



## coolpohle

I think Missouri St. would be out. Probably not by a ton, but because they scheduled weak OOC and didn't beat anyone it would be hard to see them getting in.


----------



## coolpohle

I'm still not sold on Butler. They went 8-4 OOC and only beat Florida St. They lost to a handful of bad teams. I think they need to win in the finals.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Butler's 4 top 50 wins become less impressive when scrutinized -- three of them are against a team that is likely out in Cleveland St.

But I do think rep will help their case (even unconsciously). The bubble is so weak, that I expect rep will help separate bubble teams.


----------



## Jonathan Watters

Nimreitz said:


> 17-13 for MSU. 9-9 in a pretty weak Big Ten outside the top 3. I don't care if there are 68 teams and it's a weak bubble, that is a **** team who shouldn't go dancing.


Big Ten is not weak.


----------



## Jonathan Watters

JuniorNoboa said:


> Agree on Asheville and Belmont - Belmont could get to 12 if there are an abnormal number of bracket busters I suppose.
> 
> I have Morehead as a 14, but I can see 15 right now. But given that there will be some tourney upsets weakending the at large pool from the smaller conferences, 14 seems likely. For the most part I am ranking on RPI right now.


Belmont hasn't beaten anybody, but have crushed their conference at a borderline unprecedented rate. Actually the #20 team according to Kenpom, who accounts for MOV. I will be very interested in how this team does in the Tournament. 

If I were a 3/4/5/6, I would NOT want to play this team...


----------



## Rather Unique

JuniorNoboa said:


> Is Missouri St a bracket buster if they lose today?
> 
> RPI around 42-45, an MVC Regular Season Championship at 15-3 (the MVC is down), 0 top 50 wins, 3-6 vs top 100.
> 
> My opinion is they would be an extra nuisance if you are on the bubble, but based on the above would probably not be selected.


Welp, they lost...


----------



## stl775

Indiana St. a 15


----------



## JuniorNoboa

UPDATED SEEDS AS OF END OF GAMES ON SUNDAY MARCH 6

1	
Ohio St	
Kansas	
Pitt	
Notre Dame

2	
BYU	
Purdue	
Duke	
Florida

3	
San Diego St	
UNC	
Syracuse	
Texas

4	
Lousiville	
Wisconsin	
St. Johns	
Kentucky

5	
Georgetown	
West Virginia	
Uconn	
Kansas St

6	
Xavier	
Texas AM	
Arizona	
Cincinnati

7	
Villanova (Up from 8)
Vanderbilt	
Utah St	
UNLV (Up from 8)

8	
Temple	
George Mason (Down from 7)	
Tennessee (Down from 7)
Old Dominion

9	
Butler	
UCLA	
Illinois	
Missouri

10	
Washington 
Michigan St	
Florida St
Boston College

11	
Harvard
Michigan	
Marquette	
Alabama

12	
Virginia Tech / Richmond	
Clemson	
Gonzaga	
Georgia / Colorado

13	
Oakland	
Belmont	
UAB	
Iona (replaces Fairfield)

14	
Charleston	
Bucknell	
Indiana St (replace Missouri St as MVC Champion)	
Morehead St

15	
Kent St (down from 14)	
Long Island	
Long Beach St
Northern Colorado (move up from 16)


16	
Bethune Cookman	/ Texas Southern	
McNeese State / Arkansas St (replace Florida Atlantic)
UNC Asheville
Boston University (replace Vermont)

LAST 4 OUT
VCU
Penn St
St. Mary's
USC


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Gonzaga / St. Mary's looks like it will be the WCC final as expected.

If your on the bubble is their a team you prefer to win tomorrow, or scared of neither as an at-large?


----------



## coolpohle

I think you prefer St. Mary's to win. I don't think Gonzaga gets an at-large, and think St. Mary's very well could get one. Forgivable OOC losses, wins over St. John's and @ Gonzaga. It would be close.


----------



## xu95

Junior, do you think Xavier moves up to a five or maybe even a low four if they win the A-10 tourney?

xu95


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I think they probably get to a five with a tourney win - then again I got burned on the A-10 seedings last yaer (in particular Temple IIRC)

Xavier is one of the top 16 teams right now. but what is hurting them is their start of the season. A BCS team often gets their conference season to sort of make the OOC just "go away". 

Four Will be Difficult because many teams are already locked into 16 spots:

ACC - Duke, UNC
Big 12 - Kansas, Texas
Big Ten - Ohio St, Purdue, (prob Wisconsin)
MWC - BYU, SD St
SEC - Florida, (prob Kentucky)

That is 9-11 teams before we even get to the Big East - Big East has Pitt, ND, Syracuse and Louisville locked into top four seeds. 

So say 13 teams, then competing for three spots are:
Wisconsin
Kentucky
St. John's 
Georgetown
Big East Team that Makes a Run
Texas AM if it makes a Run
Kansas St if it wins Big 12
Xavier

Four would be difficult to envision. Obviously there is often a gap between 12/13 seeds, so while it doesn't really impact second round matchup, it could impact difficulty of first round.


----------



## FSH

Love how people overrated the **** out of Notre Dame..There is no way in hell Notre Dame last long as a 1 seed they are the most overrated team in College Basketball


----------



## JuniorNoboa

FSH said:


> Love how people overrated the **** out of Notre Dame..There is no way in hell Notre Dame last long as a 1 seed they are the most overrated team in College Basketball


How am I overrating Notre Dame's seed? Please tell me who has such a better resume then Notre Dame for a #1 seed.

Perhaps Notre Dame will lose early but their resume is deserving of consideration for a 1 seed. THere are many teams who I give lower seeds to who I think are better then teams of higher seeds, but seedings are not based on that.


----------



## coolpohle

You don't put the four best teams as the four #1 seeds. You put the four teams with the four best resume's.


----------



## zagsfan20

coolpohle said:


> I think you prefer St. Mary's to win. I don't think Gonzaga gets an at-large, and think St. Mary's very well could get one. Forgivable OOC losses, wins over St. John's and @ Gonzaga. It would be close.


I bet the Zags still get an at-large bid if they lose.


----------



## SheriffKilla

My bubble teams (Fighting for 6 spots), their Kenpom.com ranking next to their name:
Maryland 34
New Mexico 41
Michigan St. 43
Michigan 44
Nebraska 45
St. Marys 46
Richmond 50
UAB 51 (AUTO??)
Penn St. 52
Tennessee 55
Georgia 56
Colorado 60
Boston College 62
California 65
Colorado St. 71

I think UAB will win the CONF USA tourney, Maryland wont make the NCAAs and than the next 6 according to kenpom are the ones that make it. I think New Mexico will make a little run in the MWC tourney which will be enough them to get them in but if not than Id probably go with Tennessee.

Also, gotta say, even though resume is what matters, the committee looks at how good a team is as well. Just a little bit and maybe only subconsiously but they do.


----------



## coolpohle

zagsfan20 said:


> I bet the Zags still get an at-large bid if they lose.


Well, we don't have to worry about that now. St. Mary's will be awfully close.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

UPDATED SEEDS AS OF END OF GAMES ON MONDAY MARCH 7 (Changes from Yesterday Bracketed)

1	
Ohio St	
Kansas	
Pitt	
Notre Dame

2	
BYU	
Purdue	
Duke	
Florida

3	
San Diego St	
UNC	
Syracuse	
Texas

4	
Lousiville	
Wisconsin	
St. Johns	
Kentucky

5	
Georgetown	
West Virginia	
Uconn	
Kansas St

6	
Xavier	
Texas AM	
Old Dominion (Up From 8)
Cincinnati

7	
Arizona (Down from 6)
Vanderbilt	
Utah St	
UNLV

8	
Temple	
George Mason 
Tennessee 
Villanova (Down from 7)

9	
Butler	
UCLA	
Illinois	
Missouri

10	
Washington 
Michigan St	
Florida St
Gonzaga (up from 12)

11	
Harvard
Michigan	
Marquette	
Boston College (Down from 10)

12	
Virginia Tech / Alabama	
Richmond
UAB (Up from 13)
Georgia / Colorado

13	
Oakland	
Belmont	
Clemson (Down from 12)
Morehead St (Up From 14)

14 
Bucknell 
Indiana St 
Long Island (Up from 15) 
Kent St (Up From 15)

15 
Long Beach St
Northern Colorado (Up From 16)
Wofford (replaces Charleston)
St Peters (replaces Iona)

16	
Bethune Cookman	/ UNC Asheville	
McNeese State / Texas Southern
Boston University
North Texas (replaces Arkansas St)

LAST 4 OUT
VCU
Penn St
St. Mary's
USC


----------



## JuniorNoboa

* NEWARK
Cleveland*

1	Ohio St
16	Bethune Cookman / UNC Asheville

8	Villanova
9	UCLA

* Washington*

4	St. John's
13	Belmont

5	Kansas St
12	Virginia Tech / Alabama


* Charlotte*

2	Duke
15	Wofford

7	Vanderbilt
10	Michigan St


* Washington*

3	Syracuse
14	Bucknell

6	Old Dominion
11	Harvard


* SAN ANTONIO
Tulsa*

1	Kansas
16	North Texas

8	Tennessee
9	Illinois

* Tucson*

4	Louisville
13	Morehead St

5	Xavier
12	Georgia / Colorado


* Chicago*

2	Purdue
15	Long Beach St

7	Arizona
10	Gonzaga

* Tucson*

3	San Diego St
14	Kent St

6	Texas AM
11	Marquette

* NEW ORLEANS
Cleveland*

1	Pitt
16	Mcneese St / Texas Southern

8	George Mason
9	Butler

* Denver*

4	Wisconsin
13	Oakland

5	West Virginia
12	Richmond


* Tampa*

2	Florida
15	St Peters

7	UNLV
10	Florida St

* Tulsa*

3	Texas
14	Indiana St

6	Cincinnati
11	Boston College

* ANAHEIM
Chicago*

1	Notre Dame
16	Boston University

8	Temple
9	Missouri

* Tampa*

4	Kentucky
13	Clemson

5	Georgetown
12	UAB


* Denver*

2	BYU
15	Northern Colorado

7	Utah St
10	Washington

* Charlotte*

3	UNC
14	Long Island

6	Uconn
11	Michigan

Note - Xavier moved up from 5, UConn down to 6, to avoid potential Big East second round matchup.


----------



## bball2223

FSH said:


> Love how people overrated the **** out of Notre Dame..There is no way in hell Notre Dame last long as a 1 seed they are the most overrated team in College Basketball


I don't think ND's a title contender, but their resume is as good as anybody's. They beat Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown, Pitt (on the road), St. Johns, UConn (twice), Louisville and Villanova. If they can win 2 games this week or the whole thing they are definitely deserving of a number one seed. I really don't know of another team with that impressive stable of wins. Maybe if Syracuse wouldn't have had that stretch where they lost 6 of 8 in conference we would be talking about them instead of ND.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

A couple interesting games this evening:

Marquette - Providence: This is a game Marquette would have rather not played. A bad loss tonight may take them out of the tournament. If they win they are in. KenPom has them at 77% chance of winning, so a loss is not of the question.

Butler - Milwaukee - Butler is probably in with a loss tonight but would not be safe either. So this is a potential bubble buster. KenPom only has Butler at 65% tonight.

If your a bubble team your cheering for Butler and Providence tonight.


A point on my seedings - from seed 13-16 for the time being, I am simply seeding teams in order of RPI -- at least until more teams get officially in on those lines.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

UPDATED SEEDS AS OF END OF GAMES ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 9 (Changes from Monday Bracketed)

1	
Ohio St	
Kansas	
Pitt	
Notre Dame

2	
BYU	
Purdue	
Duke	
Florida

3	
San Diego St	
UNC	
Syracuse	
Texas

4	
Lousiville	
Wisconsin	
St. Johns	
Kentucky

5	
Xavier (up from 6)	
West Virginia	
Uconn	
Kansas St

6	
Georgetown (Down from 5)	
Texas AM	
Old Dominion 
Cincinnati

7	
Arizona 
Vanderbilt	
Utah St	
UNLV

8	
Temple	
George Mason 
Tennessee 
UCLA (up from 9)

9	
Butler 
Illinois	
Missouri
Washington (up from 10)

10	
Villanova (Down from 8) 
Marquette (Up From 11)	
Florida St
Gonzaga 

11	
Harvard
Michigan	
Michigan St (Down from 10)	
Boston College 

12	
Virginia Tech / Alabama	
Richmond
UAB 
Georgia / Colorado

13	
Oakland	
Belmont	
Clemson 
Morehead St 

14 
Bucknell 
Indiana St 
Long Island 
Kent St 

15 
Long Beach St
Northern Colorado 
Wofford 
St Peters 

16	
Bethune Cookman	/ Texas Southern
McNeese State / Arkansas Little Rock (replaces North Texas)
Boston University
UNC Asheville

LAST 4 OUT
VCU
Penn St
St. Mary's
USC


----------



## stl775

UAB lost, does anyone want to make this tournament?


----------



## JuniorNoboa

stl775 said:


> UAB lost, does anyone want to make this tournament?


Overall the BCS schools on the bubble have had a good day today.

Whether these schools deserve to get in the tournament or not, they have had good days based on what the committee will base their decision on.

Only thing that could have hurt Michigan St was another bad loss against Iowa. They are locked in now.

Colorado had the biggest day by beating Kansas St for another top 50 win. Their RPI moves up to 64, and they are now 6-6 vs top 50. They are the biggest winners of the day (although that is 3 of 6 wins against K State)

USC also had a big day by beating a team of similar talent level in California. It was a dangerous game - their RPI is moving up quite well to 65, 5-4 vs top 50, and 8-7 vs top 100. Next up is Arizona - a win against them may be enough to get them on the right side of the bubble.

Obviously UAB really hurt themself in a trap game. They are still 10-5 vs top 100, despite only 1 top 50 win. But I believe the committee should value top 100 road wins. Wins AT ECU, UCF, Marshall or Southern Miss, are just as good as Michigan beating Michigan St at home... probably better. I would like to see them get in, and its hard to leave out an RPI of 30. I think I will keep them in for now (probably last team in)

Georgia avoided the bad loss that would have moved them off the bubble. Beating Auburn does nothing to help you - losing to them certainly hurts you. Its not really a game you want at this time of year. Exact same deal for BC beating Wake.

Memphis RPI is 33, and their top 100 record is 11-6. They had been sliding so Southern Miss was big for them to get back on track.

Colorado St was in trouble and needing a few good wins in the MWC tourney - they lost to New Mexico are done.

I think I am going to keep UAB in on the last four in, and move Alabama out -- will probably move UTEP in as my projected CUSA champion.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

UPDATED SEEDS AS OF MIDNIGHT (Games of March 10 Almost Completed)(Changes from Wednesday Bracketed)




1	
Ohio St	
Kansas	
Pitt	
Notre Dame

2	
BYU	
Purdue	
Duke	
Florida

3	
San Diego St	
UNC	
Syracuse	
Texas

4	
Louisville	
Wisconsin	
UConn (Up from 5)	
Kentucky

5	
West Virginia	
St. John's (down from 4)
Xavier
Texas AM (Up from 6)

6	
Georgetown (Down from 5)	
Kansas St (Down from 5)
Old Dominion 
Arizona (up from 7)

7	
Cincinnati (Down from 6)
Vanderbilt	
Utah St	
UNLV

8	
Temple	
George Mason 
Tennessee 
Butler (up from 9)

9	
Illinois	
Missouri
Washington 
Florida St (up from 10)

10	
Villanova 
Marquette 
UCLA (Down from 8)
Gonzaga 

11	
Harvard
Richmond (Up from 12)	
Michigan St	
Memphis (New)

12	
VCU (New) / Clemson (Back to Last 4)
Colorado
St. Mary's (New)
Georgia / UAB (Moved to At Large)

13	
Oakland	
Belmont	
UTEP (New CUSA Champ)
Long Island (Up from 14)

14 
Bucknell 
Indiana St 
Morehead St (Down from 13) 
Kent St 

15 
Long Beach St
Northern Colorado 
Wofford 
St Peters 

16	
Bethune Cookman	/ Texas Southern
McNeese State / Arkansas Little Rock (replaces North Texas)
Boston University
UNC Asheville

MOVED OUT = BOSTON COLLEGE, ALABAMA, VIRGINIA TECH, MICHIGAN
MOVED IN - UAB (As at Large), Memphis, VCU, St. Mary's

I am falling in the same trip I always do with the Non-BCS bubble teams. Maybe just once the committee wiil get it right.


LAST 4 OUT
USC
MICHIGAN
PENN ST
ALABAMA

NEXT OUT
VIRGINIA TECH
BOSTON COLLEGE


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Friday of conference week is probably the day that has the most going on with respect to the bubble every single year.

No different today.

Colorado lost to Kansas - Can't fault them for the loss, but they would have loved the breathing room. They were in entering today, but the bubble has certainly tightened today.

Florida beat Tennessee - Florida is now 11-2 vs RPI Top 50 Teams. If they win the SEC Tournament they are a 2 seed (especially with Purdue sliding, and Syracuse not rising)

Penn St up 20-16 over Wisconin AT THE HALF. Nothing else to say on the game itself. But if Penn St wins no matter what the score, their bubble profile wlll improve alot.

USC down 3 at Arizona nearing the end of the first half. They need this game to get in, IMO.


Some people are saying Duke/UNC winner as a #1 seed, and both are progressing along . I'm not buying it. I still think those spots are reserved for Notre Dame and Pitt. I have no clue if Smith is hurt but if he is that would have to hurt their seed - make it a 3.

Michigan St wins by 18 in a totally unexpected result over Purdue. If there were any doubts about them, this locks it up. 

Michigan beats Illinois. Their RPI is up to 47, 4 top 50 wins (albeit 9 losses). However, they may get credit for hanging with Kansas and Ohio St earlier this year. They should be in. As I said its a big day for the Big Ten, espeically if Penn St can finish it off.

UConn beats Syracuse. UConn was sliding into that 5/6 seed grouping, but now both teams seem to be on the three line. If UConn beats Notre Dame tomorrow night, they are a candidate for a 2 seed. Amazing what 4 days can do for you - Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse and potentiually Notre Dame.

Dayton and St. Joes pull off surprising upsets, meaning one of them will play the role of bracket buster on Sunday if they can win again. Xavier's loss should move them down to no lower then 7 seed IMO, but they risk the committee moving them down to the dreaded 8 line.

Alabama beats Georgia - Was this actually a play in game. I think Alabama is certainly marginally ahead of Georgia right now (even though the RPI's are 43 and 76). Its possible neither get in. I'm not sure if I will have Bama in tonight.

Clemson beats BC by 23. That margin will hurt a bubble team eye test wise. I liked Clemson more entering this game, and I think this game puts them in decent shape. BC was on the outside on my bracket last night, and IMO have no chance at an at-large right now.

UTEP beats Tulsa, to move into RPI top 50, and 6-6 vs top 100. They likely still need to win tomorrow, but they will at least be discussed on the bubble. UAB and Memphis are certainly better positioned then them. I am fairly certain UAB will be cheering for Memphis tomorrow as three in the CUSA seems difficult given what has happened in the BCS conferences today.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Memphis beats East Carolina handily. Their RPI moves up to 29. And in a 12-7 top 100 record, and their rep, and they seem to be in very good shape to me. If your on the bubble you want Memphis to beat UTEP tomorrow.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I also noticed that St Mary's is doing the same thing they did a few years back. Having a non conference game after their conference tournament is over.

I am not sure what the point is really other then concern about staying fresh. But beating Weber St does nothing for your resume, and can only be a bad loss that knocks you out.

Seems like a non sensical risk to me.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Penn St and Wisconsin should be banned from the NCAA,

32-28, less then five minutes to go.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Penn St wins 36-33 over Wisconsin in an instant classic.


----------



## HKF

I am still trying to figure out why Penn State is in after this win. To me they need to win the tourney to get in.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I don't disagree HKF. Its a legit bubble resume, but nothing better then that.


----------



## MLKG

Jimmer had as many points in the first half as Wisconsin did as a team in the entire game.


----------



## apelman42

That was a piss poor performance.

I will be picking Wisconsin to lose in the first round in any bracket challenge that I do.

Does a performance like that move you down a notch? Are they now like a 6 seed?


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Right now I have 15 teams locked into the POD seeds - Wisconsin at 5 would seem logical. That leaves 1 spot on the four line that is wide open right now, with not many teams still playing that would contend for it -- So possibly Wisconsin could be the last 4.

I will lay out the teams (you may not agree with the order or seeds of the 15, but their appears to be clear separation between them and the rest of the field)

Other then Kansas and Ohio St as 1 seeds, the seeding of the rest of the pod is really up in the air. 


1 
Kansas
Ohio St
Pitt
Notre Dame

2
UNC
BYU
Florida
Texas

3 
Duke
UConn
Louisville
San Diego St

4
Syracuse
Purdue
Kentucky

------------------

Contenders for the last four seed:


Georgetown
Wisconsin
Arizona
West Virginia
St. John's

So it seems like Wisconsin is very likely a five seed.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

UPDATED SEEDS THROUGH FRIDAY MARCH 11 Game(Changes from Thursday Bracketed)


1	
Ohio St	
Kansas	
Pitt	
Notre Dame

2	
BYU	
UNC (Moves up from 3)
Texas (Moves up from 3)	
Florida

3	
San Diego St	
Duke (moves down from 2)	
UConn (Moves up from 4)
Louisville (Moves up from 4)

4	
Purdue (Down from 3)
Syracuse (Down from 3)
Kentucky
Wisconsin

5	
West Virginia	
St. John's (Down from 4)
Georgetown (Up from 6)
Arizona (Up from 6)

6	
Kansas St 
Old Dominion 
Texas AM (Down from 5)
Vanderbilt (Up from 7)

7	
Cincinnati (Down from 6)
Xavier (Down from 6)
Utah St	
UNLV

8	
Temple	
George Mason 
Tennessee 
Butler

9	
Illinois	
Missouri
Washington 
Michigan St (Up from 11)

10	
Villanova 
Florida St (Down from 9) 
UCLA (Down from 8)
Gonzaga 

11	
Harvard
Richmond 
Marquette (Down from 10)
Memphis (New)

12	
Clemson 
Michigan (NEW)
Belmont (up from 13)
UTEP (up from 13)

13	
Oakland	
St. Mary's / Colorado (moved first round games to 13 seeds)
VCU / Penn St 
Kent St (Up from 13)

14 
Bucknell 
Indiana St 
Long Island (Down from 13) 
Morehead St

15 
Long Beach St
Northern Colorado 
Wofford 
St Peters 

16	
Alabama St (replace Texas Southern)/ UNC Asheville
Hampton (replace Bethune Cookman) / Arkansas Little Rock 
McNeese St
Boston University

*MOVED OUT = Georgia, UAB
MOVED IN - Michigan, Penn St*

*LAST 5 OUT*
USC
VIRGINIA TECH
ALABAMA
UAB
GEORGIA

BIG EAST - 11
BIG TEN - 7
BIG 12 - 6
ACC - 4
SEC - 4
PAC-10 - 3
MWC - 3
A-10 - 3
Colonial - 3
CUSA - 2
WCC - 2


----------



## SheriffKilla

Ohio St
Kansas
Duke 
Texas/pitt
are the 1 seeds


----------



## JuniorNoboa

SheriffKilla said:


> Ohio St
> Kansas
> Duke
> Texas/pitt
> are the 1 seeds


There is absolutely no way that Texas is in contention for a number one seed.

If Duke does not win the ACC, it has no shot at a 1 seed. Let`s see what the Smith injury does.

If BYU beats San Diego St handily again, it may get a number one.

But Pitt and Notre Dame is by far the most logical scenario.


----------



## HKF

No way Duke gets anything less than a 2.


----------



## bball2223

You think ND is going to jump Duke for a #1? I think ND is probably a better team right now (especially if the Smith injury limits him), but Duke has a better record and a higher RPI. I could have seen it if ND won tonight, but now I have a hard time seeing it. Obviously I don't know as much as you JN, but that's just my 2 cents.


----------



## croco

JuniorNoboa said:


> There is absolutely no way that Texas is in contention for a number one seed.
> 
> If Duke does not win the ACC, it has no shot at a 1 seed. Let`s see what the Smith injury does.
> 
> If BYU beats San Diego St handily again, it may get a number one.
> 
> But Pitt and Notre Dame is by far the most logical scenario.


I disagree about BYU. They lost any chance of getting a #1 seed when they got blown out at home by New Mexico.


----------



## Diable

Yeah BYU has almost no margin of error so far as a #1 seed goes. They have to be almost flawless. I don't care as much about the 1 seed as Irving and Smith being available for the NCAA. However if the committee believes that Irving is going to play, as seems to be being hinted...Then Duke is a completely different team and they'll get a #1 seed because the committee will believe they're probably as good as any team in the country. Iving is both Duke's best player and the most important player on the team. If he comes back all of those losses without him are more or less erased when you evaluate them for seeding.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

HKF said:


> No way Duke gets anything less than a 2.


It depends on what happens with Smith. If smith is injured and they do not win the ACC, then the three seed become a possibility. if teams like BYU, Florida and Texas win out, it become a stronger possibility.

There are alot of factors in the Duke seed right now - winning, injuries, can the fellow 2 seeds follow through.

The idea that Duke would get a number one seedn because Irving could possibly play is incorrect IMO if Duke does not win the ACC. If it wins the ACC it might help them. Duke has to win the ACC tourney to be in the number one discussion. 

* As for BYU I siimply mentioned them as a team that committee would consider for the #1 seed over Texas in response to the reader who said that Texas was a #1. I never proposed them as a serious #1 contender, simply one that is ahead of Texas. * -- I still think Pitt, Notre Dame, and a winning Duke team are ahead of them.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

bball2223 said:


> You think ND is going to jump Duke for a #1? I think ND is probably a better team right now (especially if the Smith injury limits him), but Duke has a better record and a higher RPI. I could have seen it if ND won tonight, but now I have a hard time seeing it. Obviously I don't know as much as you JN, but that's just my 2 cents.


If Duke does not win the ACC regular season or post season championship I can't see them getting a #1. Notre Dame has the better resume if they do not win.

Remember when the Big East had three number one seeds a few years ago. It is viewed as the best conference, so I am sure a second place team in that conference is above all others.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

croco said:


> I disagree about BYU. They lost any chance of getting a #1 seed when they got blown out at home by New Mexico.


You misread the intention of my post which was to dismiss Texas as a #1. BYU is above Texas for a #1 seed - but their chances of getting it are almost nil


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Notes on some of today's happenings.

Ohio St beats Michigan - With six top 50 wins, quality play against Kansas, Ohio St and Syracuse, Michigan is still probably in. Its not a good enough resume to say "lock", but they should be OK. With respect to Ohio St, all that is left up on the air is the #1-#1 seed. Lose tomorrow and they certainly do not get it. If Ohio St is the clear #1, then playing Penn St is good. If they needed to get over the top of Kansas it could have used Purdue as an opponent. The impact either way is negligible,

Kansas beats Texas - Kansas moves in to the #1-#1 spot for now. I had Duke as a 3 yesterday, in part because the news I heard was that Smith was a bad injury - obviously not the case. Duke gets at least a 2.

Duke beats Virginia Tech - Duke still must win tomorrow to get a #1. I'm leaning towards them instead of Notre Dame tomorrow if they win, simply because Duke is always overseeded. As for Virginia Tech, I think many have them in, and I think I will have to make the call - VCU or Virginia Tech. It would be amusing to see Greenberg whine as he comes up short again. A 60 RPI, 2-5 top 50, 8-8 top 100, is a weak resume.

San Diego St beats BTU by 18 - Convincing wins by the Aztecs who beat the only team who has beat them this year. I have them up to a 2. And while BYU has the resume of a possible 2 the Davies factor and how it is has impacted recently certainly pushed them down to a 3, or a hotly debated 4.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

North Carolina beats Clemson - UNC is 2-4 vs top 50, (3-4 if they win tomorrow). Even if they sweep the ACC, talk of them as a #1 is absurd - the whole body of work matters. A 2 is reasonable however if they win,. Their potential downside after tomorrow is no more then a 3. Clemson is now 0-6 vs top 50 but has nine top 100 wins. I have them above Tech slightly.

Florida beats Vanderbilt - Vandy is heady to a 6/7 seed. Florida is now 11-2 vs the top 50. I can see them getting a 2, no worse then a 3. Looking at the 2 line contenders we have Duke or Notre Dame, UNC, SD St, UConn, Texas and Florida. Is UNC's resume better then Florida even if they both win tomorrow?

Washington beats Arizona - They will both be in the 6-7 range.

Kentucky beats Bama - Kentucky looks a POD seed. They are probably playing for a 3 if they can beat Florida tomorrow. Alabama is out IMO -- their beating of Georgia yesterday did not switch them around - it just knocked Georgia out to join Bama.

Richomd beats Temple - Richmond should be safe, but not a lock due to their 5-7 top 100 record if they lose tomorrow against Dayton. Their Purdue win still acts as the difference against fellow non BCS schools Temple will probably end up in the dreaded 8-9 range.

Memphis beats UTEP - This was a good result for the bubble as I beleive Memphis had a much stronger at large resume. UTEP at RPI 59, is probably not good enough. But 24-9 overall and 6-7 vs top 100 is not awful.

Princeton beats Harvard for the IVY at Large - It is lining up that the two bubble teams with the best RPI's are Harvard and UAB. Harvard's RPI is 35 - its top 100 is a lowly 3-5, but wins over Princeton, at Boston College and Colorado show that they are a valid bubble team continder.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Penn St beats Michigan St - Penn St's RPI moves up to 39. Five and Ten top 50 and top 100, and a trip to the Big Ten final pass the Eye Test. Once agian the Big Ten fails the entertainment test even if its good teams deserving of seeds.

Finally Boise St is up by one against Utah St. at the half. Not unexpected this team looked dominant last night against NMSt, and has won eight in arow. Can they pull it out?


----------



## JuniorNoboa

bball2223 said:


> You think ND is going to jump Duke for a #1? I think ND is probably a better team right now (especially if the Smith injury limits him), but Duke has a better record and a higher RPI. I could have seen it if ND won tonight, but now I have a hard time seeing it. Obviously I don't know as much as you JN, but that's just my 2 cents.


I want to address one additional point here. Notre Dame would not be jumping Duke. They were ahead of them entering this week in my opinion. Duke needs the ACC tourney tomorrow to catch them (and they are lucky that UNC ended up being the quality win available for them).


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Will someone please fix the god damn issue that causes you to log out if you are taking a post that takes more then 10 minutes to update. ****.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

UPDATED SEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY MARCH 11 Games(Changes from Friday Bracketed)

Assumes
Utah St beats Boise
Duke beats UNC
Ohio St beats Penn St
Florida beats Kentucky
Richmond beats Dayton




1	
Kansas	
Ohio St	
Pitt	
Duke (up from 3)

2
Notre Dame (down from 1)
UConn (Up from 3)
Florida
San Diego St (Up from 3)	

3	
BYU (Down from 2)
Texas (Down fron 2)
UNC (Down from 2)
Syracuse (Up from 4)

4	
Purdue 
Louisville (Down from 3)
Kentucky
Wisconsin

5	
West Virginia	
St. John's 
Georgetown 
Texas AM (Up from 6)

6	
Kansas St 
Old Dominion 
Cincinnati (Up from 7)
Arizona (Down from 5)

7	
Vanderbilt (Down from 6)
Xavier
Utah St	
Washington (Up from 9)

8	
UNLV (Down from 7)
George Mason 
Tennessee 
Memphis (Up from 11)


9	
Temple (Down from 8)
Butler (Down from 8)
Penn St (Up from 11)
Missouri

10	
Villanova
Illinois (Down from 9) 
UCLA 
Richmond (Up from 11)

11	
Florida St (Down from 11)
Gonzaga (Down from 10) 
Marquette 
Michigan St (Down from 9)

12	
St. Mary's / Colorado
VCU / Virginia Tech (New)
Michigan
Princeton (Replaces Harvard)

13	
Clemson (Down from 12)
Belmont (Down from 12)
Oakland	
Long Island (Up from 14)

14 
Bucknell 
Indiana St 
Morehead St
St Peters (Up From 15)

15 
Northern Colorado 
Wofford 
Boston University (Up from 16) 
Akron (replaced Kent St)


16	
Alabama St / Hampton
Texas San Antonio (replace McNeese St) / Arkansas Little Rock 
UNC Asheville
USC Santa Barbara (replace Long Beach St)

*MOVED OUT = UTEP
MOVED IN - Virginia Tech*

*LAST 5 OUT*
USC
HARVARD
ALABAMA
UAB
GEORGIA

BIG EAST - 11
BIG TEN - 7
BIG 12 - 6
ACC - 5
SEC - 4
PAC-10 - 3
MWC - 3
A-10 - 3
Colonial - 3
WCC - 2

HIGHEST RPI OUTS
UAB
Harvard
Missouri St
Cleveland St
Georgia


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Here is my bracket
*
SAN ANTONIO
Tulsa*
1	Kansas
16	Arkansas Little Rock / Alabama st

8	UNLV
9	Villanova

*Tampa*
4	Kentucky
13	Belmont

5	Georgetown
12	Michigan

*Chicago*
2	Notre Dame
15	Akron

7	Xavier
10	Penn St

*Charlotte*
3	UNC
14	Morehead St

6	Arizona
11	Marquette

*NEWARK
Cleveland*
1	Ohio St
16	Texas San Antonio - Hampton

8	Tennessee
9	Butler

*Tucson*
4	Louisville
13	Long Island

5	Texas AM
12	Princeton

*Washington*
2	Uconn
15	Boston University

7	Vanderbilt
10	Richmond

*Denver*
3	BYU
14	St Peters

6	Kansas St
11	Gonzaga

*
NEW ORLEANS
Cleveland*
1	Pitt
16	UC Santa Barbara

8	George Mason
9	Missouri

*Denver*
4	Wisconsin
13	Clemson

5	West Virginia
12	St. Mary's / Colorado

*Tampa*
2	Florida
15	Wofford

7	Washington
10	Illinois

*Tulsa*
3	Texas
14	Indiana St

6	Cincinnati
11	Florida St

*
ANAHEIM
Charlotte*
1	Duke
16	UNC Asheville

8	Memphis
9	Temple

*Chicago*
4	Purdue
13	Oakland

5	St. John's
12	VCU / Virginia Tech

*Tucson*
2	San Diego St
15	Northern Colorado

7	Utah St
10	UCLA

*Washington*
3	Syracuse
14	Bucknell

6	Old Dominion
11	Michigan St


----------



## HKF

7 Big Ten teams. Are you kidding me? I am not sure why they deserve seven teams. I still feel Penn State needs to win the tourney and Illinois doesn't belong either.


----------



## jvanbusk

Thank you for putting Michigan back in.

Not sure why you put them out without them even playing.

I would love to play Syracuse by the way.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

jvanbusk said:


> Thank you for putting Michigan back in.
> 
> Not sure why you put them out without them even playing.
> 
> I would love to play Syracuse by the way.



Your not going to get to play Syracuse. A season rematch will not happen in the round of 64 (and they try to avoid it in the round of 32), and your not making it past your first game much less the sweet 16.

I explained why I was moving certain teams into the bubble earlier in the week, when I reconsidered VCU, St. Mary's and Memphis. Michigan has a questionable resume and I chose to take them out. After Georgia and UAB got knocked out, Michigan beat Illinois they got back in.


----------



## FSH

How is San Diego St not a 1 seed? RPI is 3rd SOS 22nd...I dont see how if Duke loses tonight how SDST isnt a 1 seed over Pitt and Duke


----------



## FSH

Also does the regular season not count anymore? UConn has a **** season but plays 5 good games and they are a 2? A 9 loses team a 2? And its not even like they blew all 5 teams out they almost lost 3 of the 5 games


----------



## JuniorNoboa

HKF said:


> 7 Big Ten teams. Are you kidding me? I am not sure why they deserve seven teams. I still feel Penn State needs to win the tourney and Illinois doesn't belong either.


HKF don't you get angry at the number of Big Ten teams that get in each year? And I agree their teams are frustrating. I wouldn't come to the defence of any of the 4-7 Big Ten teams if they were left out, but here is my view.

What BCS teams are left to take over the Big Ten teams?
USC, Georgia, UAB, Boston College

In terms of Non-BCS teams who is left?
UAB, UTEP, Missouri St, Cleveland St, Harvard

It is in that non-BCS group you can argue that perhaps they deserve it more then some of these middling 4 through 7 teams of the Big Ten that win off each other. But I don't expect the committee to do the same -- and if they do it would be a pleasant surprise.

As for Penn St specifically - they have a 39 RPI, which will stay under 40 after losing to Ohio St. 5 top 50 wins (although 2 wins agianst each of Wisconsin and Mich St is not that impressive). I think any team with a 5-9 top 50 record should be more closely scrutinized, but BCS and top 40 RPI with a 5-9 record has almost always been enough - plus a run in the conference tournament - I would be stunned if they were not in.


----------



## croco

FSH said:


> How is San Diego St not a 1 seed? RPI is 3rd SOS 22nd...I dont see how if Duke loses tonight how SDST isnt a 1 seed over Pitt and Duke


The MWC is overrated. It's not only that SDSU hasn't beaten anyone, they haven't even played anyone. Do you really think they can get to the Final Four? I don't.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

FSH said:


> How is San Diego St not a 1 seed? RPI is 3rd SOS 22nd...I dont see how if Duke loses tonight how SDST isnt a 1 seed over Pitt and Duke


Don't feel too bad for San Diego St. They will be placed as the 2 seed in the Anaheim Region. and will have the fourth ranked number one in their region (Duke or Notre Dame).

You have to remember that BYU had a better resume then SDSU when they were being considered as a number one -- not only had they beat SDSU in their only matchup, but they had out of conference wins against Arizona and Utah St -- wins that San Deigo St does not have.


SDSU lacks quality wins - three wins over UNLV, a win over St. Mary's, and a win over a team that had already beat you twice in BYU.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

Duke crushing UNC early 24-8. If the committee somehow still concluded Notre Dame was above Duke no matter what before the game, I am sure the discussion is being re-opened.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

FSH said:


> Also does the regular season not count anymore? UConn has a **** season but plays 5 good games and they are a 2? A 9 loses team a 2? And its not even like they blew all 5 teams out they almost lost 3 of the 5 games


Here are my three seads right now:

Syracuse
BYU
UNC (assuming a loss)
Texas

Who do you place ahead of UConn. (God dammit I turned the French keyboard on and I can`t put quetion marks)

BYU - The Davies factor - if you looked purely at resume, they would be ahead

Syracuse - UConn is 14-9, vs Syracuse at 13-7 in the Big East (Draw or slight edge Cuse - UConn because of the neutral games has higher SOS). UConn also won at Texas, and beat Kentucky on a Neutral Floor wins that Cuse is nowhere close to having out of conference. 14 RPI over 18 RPI (basically a draw). 12-8 vs Top 50, vs 10-5 Top 50 (quantity or % - draw). Add in the streak in the end, and the fact that UConn won a title, and they are ahead of Syracuse

UNC - 2-5 vs top 50 RPI. Enough said.

Texas - UConn beat them in Austin.

Also remember when Syracuse got a 5 seed after winning the BET in 2006, when at one point they were out of the tournament.

I thought if I was giving too much value to the streak - and it has some value, but when you look at overall body of work it is better then Syracuse, UNC or Texas. And well BYU, got Mormoned.


----------



## FSH

even if SDST has some weak wins their SOS was still 22 its not like it was in the 50s...RPI of 3 and a SOS of 22 they should be a 1 Seed at 30-2


----------



## JuniorNoboa

FSH, I'll put it this way:

You can make an easier argument for why SDSU deserves a #1 seed, then whether they will get a #1 seed.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

UPDATED SEEDS THROUGH SUNDAY MARCH 13 Games

Assumes
Ohio St beats Penn St

I have also adjusted my seedings from yesterday night, as I had expected Florida to win. I also moved Richmond move up to a nine.

*
FINAL SEEDINGS*



1	
Kansas	
Ohio St	
Duke
Pitt	

2
Notre Dame 
UConn
Texas (Up from Three)
San Diego St 

3	
Florida (Down from 2)
BYU 
UNC 
Kentucky (Up From 4)

4	
Syracuse (Down from 3)
Purdue 
Louisville 
Wisconsin

5	
West Virginia	
St. John's 
Georgetown 
Texas AM 

6	
Kansas St 
Old Dominion 
Cincinnati 
Arizona 

7	
Vanderbilt
Xavier
Utah St	
Washington

8	
UNLV 
George Mason 
Tennessee 
Memphis 


9	
Temple 
Butler 
Penn St 
Richmond (Up From 10)

10	
Villanova
Illinois 
UCLA 
Missouri (Down from 9)

11	
Florida St 
Gonzaga 
Marquette 
Michigan St

12	
VCU / Virginia Tech 
Michigan
Princeton 
Colorado

13	
Harvard / UAB
Belmont 
Oakland	
Long Island 

14 
Bucknell 
Indiana St 
Morehead St
St Peters 

15 
Northern Colorado 
Wofford 
Boston University
Akron 

16	
Alabama St / UC Santa Barbara
Texas San Antonio / Arkansas Little Rock 
UNC Asheville
Hampton

*MOVED OUT = ST. Mary's, Clemson
MOVED IN - Harvard, UAB *

*LAST 6 OUT / CONSIDERED*
GEORGIA
ST MARY'S
USC
ALABAMA
CLEMSON
BOSTON COLLEGE


BIG EAST - 11
BIG TEN - 7
BIG 12 - 6
ACC - 4
SEC - 4
PAC-10 - 3
MWC - 3
A-10 - 3
Colonial - 3
IVY - 2
CUSA - 2

HIGHEST RPI OUTS
Cleveland St
Missouri
St. Mary's
Georgia
Colorado St


----------



## FSH

Dam shame Havard most likely wont get in


----------



## JuniorNoboa

With Penn St staying competitive with Ohio St, expect a hedge seed for them - basically a seed as if they won the game. The committee is starting its bracketing now, and may not want to worry about any contingency at this point Don't be stunned to see them get a Seven Seed.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I removed Clemson because they had no top 50 wins - that is a killer for an at-large from any conference much less a BCS Conference.

I removed St. Mary's because I thought schools like Harvard, UAB, and VCU had overall better bodies of work. VCU and UAB the top 100 wins, and UAB and Harvard the RPI. Harvard and St. Mary's had very similar resumes - St. Mary's gets stung as they had a great opportunity for a clinching victory at home against UTah St and blew it.


----------



## JuniorNoboa

*
FINAL BRACKET*

Note - Seed Changes to Follow Bracket Rules
Old Dominion - 6 to 5
Georgetown - 5 to 6
Michigan - 12 to 11
Gonzaga - 11 to 12
*
SAN ANTONIO
Tulsa*
1	Kansas
16	Arkansas Little Rock / Alabama st

8	UNLV
9	Richmond

*Denver*
4	Wisconsin
13	Harvard/UAB

5	West Virginia
12	Gonzaga

*Chicago*
2	Notre Dame
15	Akron

7	Xavier
10	Missouri

*Chicago*
3	Kentucky
14	Indiana St

6	Cincinnati
11	Michigan St


*
NEWARK
Cleveland*
1	Ohio St
16	Texas San Antonio - UC Santa Barbara

8	Tennessee
9	Butler

*Washington*
4	Syracuse
13	Long Island

5	Old Dominion
12	Princeton

*Washington*
2	Uconn
15	Boston University

7	Vanderbilt
10	Illinois
*
Charlotte*
3	UNC
14	Bucknell

6	Georgetown
11	Florida St

*
NEW ORLEANS
Charlotte*
1	Duke
16	UNC Asheviile

8	George Mason
9	Penn St
*
Tampa*
4	Louisville
13	Belmont

5	Texas AM
12	VCU / Virginia Tech

*Tulsa*
2	Texas
15	Wofford

7	Utah St
10	UCLA
*
Denver*
3	BYU
14	Morehead St

6	Arizona
11	Michigan
*
ANAHEIM
Cleveland*
1	Pitt
16	Hampton

8	Memphis
9	Temple
*
Tucson*
4	Purdue
13	Oakland

5	St. John's
12	Colorado
*
Tucson*
2	San Diego St
15	Northern Colorado

7	Washington
10	Villanova
*
Tampa*
3	Florida
14	St Peters

6	Kansas St
11	Marquette


----------



## JuniorNoboa

I calculated my Paymon Score below - I sort of gave up on doing my final score as an exam. Its sort of silly to call it an exam, when the answers are not correct (as I melted down last year). To a certain degree my bracket is my beliefs, and my evaluation of the committee.

Plus the things that interest the most are the bubble, first seeds. B This year I decided to keep track of seedings more for discussion, andwer people's questions, and because I enjoy it. Their is no "exam" at the end, but of course you will always look at how close you were 

But anyway my score is as follows as I did not post my bracket on the Matrix this year:

Paymon gives three for the right teams in the tourney, 2 for right seed, 1 for within one seed.

1	
Kansas	6
Ohio St	6
Duke 6
Pitt 6	

Paymon = 24

2
Notre Dame 6 
UConn 4
Texas 3 
San Diego St 6 

Paymon = 19

3	
Florida 4
BYU 6
UNC 4
Kentucky 4

Paymon = 18 

4	
Syracuse 4
Purdue 4
Louisville 6 
Wisconsin 6

Paymon = 20

5	
West Virginia 6	
St. John's 4
Georgetown 4
Texas AM 3

Paymon = 17

6	
Kansas St 4
Old Dominion 3 
Cincinnati 6
Arizona 4

Paymon = 17

7	
Vanderbilt 3
Xavier 4
Utah St	3
Washington 6

Paymon = 16

8	
UNLV 6
George Mason 6 
Tennessee 4
Memphis 3

Paymon = 19

9	
Temple 3 
Butler 4
Penn St 4
Richmond 3

Paymon = 14

10	
Villanova 4
Illinois 4 
UCLA 3
Missouri 4

Paymon = 15

11	
Florida St 4
Gonzaga 4	
Marquette 6 
Michigan St 4

Paymon = 18

12	
VCU 4
Virginia Tech 0 
Michigan 3
Princeton 4
Colorado 0

Paymon = 11

13	
Harvard 0
UAB 4
Belmont 6 
Oakland	6
Long Island 3 

Paymon = 19

14 
Bucknell 6	
Indiana St 6 
Morehead St 4
St Peters 6

Paymon = 22

15 
Northern Colorado 6 
Wofford 4
Boston University 4
Akron 6

Paymon = 20

16	
Alabama St 6 
UC Santa Barbara 4
Texas San Antonio 6 
Arkansas Little Rock 6 
UNC Asheville 6
Hampton 6

TOTAL SCORE - 303 I will still rank it against others on the matris, but as I said my primary motivation for doing this is not as an examination - its for discussion, enjoyment and evaluation of the committee, and sure I will look how I did at the end.


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## coolpohle

Good job on VCU. I unfortunately was out of town all weekend and couldn't put that much time into this. I think the selection committee left out Virginia Tech just to stick it to Seth Greenberg. I think it's hilarious either way.


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## JuniorNoboa

83 people in the matrix out of 88 had VTech In, and I am sure a few of those that didn't did it for ****s and giggles.

I think it was only Saturday I decided to put them back in over Clemson because Clemson had no top 50 victories.

Poor Seth -- well not really.


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## JuniorNoboa

Apparently my Paymon score was middling to bad (maybe my calculation was wrong) - it seems I messed up a lot in the bracket in the middle, but whatever that's not really where I care. I don't see this as an exam anyway as the matrix says, because the committe is not always the "right" answers and deserves some evaluation

I will say that of the 89 brackets that were on the matrix, only one other person had both UAB and VCU on their bracket. So I will Barry Horowitz myself for that one.


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