# Greg vs Dwight



## HispanicCausinPanic (Jul 2, 2005)

Dwight Howard averaged 12 points/10 rebs. and 1.7 blks a game as a rookie. Do you think greg can put up similar numbers? I think with BRoy and LA on this team, it might limit some of his scoring opportunities other then put backs. The most impressive #'s Howard put up that I hope Greg can duplicate is 82 games played and 33 minutes a game!


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## Entity (Feb 21, 2005)

I personally believe that Greg will have a better year than that. He may or may not start slowly, but I really think he'll be a force by the end of the year. Plus he's starting out older than Howard did. I'm going with 18 ppg, 11 rpg, and 2.5 bpg at a minimum. Whether or not he makes it the whole year... well, if Joel can almost do it then why not? It would be amazing. I won't be holding my breath for that to happen though.


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## iversonfan 349 (Oct 15, 2006)

I think oden will have a good year but he wont be better than howard in his career imo.


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## PorterIn2004 (Jan 1, 2003)

Entity said:


> I personally believe that Greg will have a better year than that. He may or may not start slowly, but I really think he'll be a force by the end of the year. Plus he's starting out older than Howard did. I'm going with 18 ppg, 11 rpg, and 2.5 bpg at a minimum. Whether or not he makes it the whole year... well, if Joel can almost do it then why not? It would be amazing. I won't be holding my breath for that to happen though.



Wow, Entity, really? Nearly 20 and 10 as a rookie? That's a pretty tall order. Remember he's only had _one_ year of _college_ ball, and he'll be a year removed from that by the time he's lacing them up for real.

I'm liking HCP's guess for what to "expect" and yours maybe more for what to hope for.


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## PorterIn2004 (Jan 1, 2003)

iversonfan 349 said:


> I think oden will have a good year but he wont be better than howard in his career imo.


Heh. Well, I just finished the post responding to Entity and now I find myself playing devil's advocate for you -- while I don't expect Oden to be a 20/10 guy as a rookie, he's bigger than Howard (and I think "longer" as well) _and_ I'm gonna guess he's faster. Similarly, I think he's a better ball handler and he's clearly a better free throw shooter, even with his off hand! Seems to me that, provided Oden can stay healthy, there's no reason he shouldn't pull ahead of Howard in nearly every category.


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## B-Roy (Feb 12, 2008)

PorterIn2004 said:


> Heh. Well, I just finished the post responding to Entity and now I find myself playing devil's advocate for you -- while I don't expect Oden to be a 20/10 guy as a rookie, he's bigger than Howard (and I think "longer" as well) _and_ I'm gonna guess he's faster. Similarly, I think he's a better ball handler and he's clearly a better free throw shooter, even with his off hand! Seems to me that, provided Oden can stay healthy, there's no reason he shouldn't pull ahead of Howard in nearly every category.


Provided he doesn't play a bunch of injured seasons.:whistling:


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## PorterIn2004 (Jan 1, 2003)

B-Roy said:


> Provided he doesn't play a bunch of injured seasons.:whistling:



I _did_ make that qualification myself but yeah, I've got a fair bit of concern about that. As McMillan's said, he's carrying a lot of weight and will be banging (and banged) a lot.


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## ROYisR.O.Y. (Apr 1, 2007)

dont care about points he will get his but rebs i would love 10pts 12rebs


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## ROYisR.O.Y. (Apr 1, 2007)

and 7 blks 8 assists


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## PorterIn2004 (Jan 1, 2003)

ROYisR.O.Y. said:


> dont care about points he will get his but rebs i would love 10pts 12rebs


_I_ care about his points, if only because his points should mostly qualify as the easy sort of buckets this team so desperately needs sometimes, like when no one can seem to hit anything outside 10 feet from the hoop.

That said, you may be right that even 10 or 12 easy baskets from him will make a huge difference in the Blazers' win total. That said, he may be averaging 10 or 12 points just from the foul line! :eek8:


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## Entity (Feb 21, 2005)

PorterIn2004 said:


> Wow, Entity, really? Nearly 20 and 10 as a rookie? That's a pretty tall order. Remember he's only had _one_ year of _college_ ball, and he'll be a year removed from that by the time he's lacing them up for real.
> 
> I'm liking HCP's guess for what to "expect" and yours maybe more for what to hope for.


I don't think it's really that tall of an order. I've spent the last year watching tons of video on the guy (including full games), and I just think he has the game to make that happen. Like you say, he'll get a lot of points at the freethrow line anyway. I think on top of that he'll get a few offensive rebounds and putbacks, and he'll have a few plays run for him in situations where he's _not_ fouled.


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## Entity (Feb 21, 2005)

iversonfan 349 said:


> I think oden will have a good year but he wont be better than howard in his career imo.


I think Oden and Howard will spend their careers being compared to each other.


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## Balian (Apr 11, 2008)

I will be happy with 12 pts, 10 rebs, and 3-4 blks.


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## PorterIn2004 (Jan 1, 2003)

Balian said:


> I will be happy with 12 pts, 10 rebs, and 3-4 blks.


Averaging 3-4 blocks as a rookie seems unlikely to me. Camby led the league in blocks this season with an average of 3.61. There were only seven guys in the whole league (counting Camby) to average more than 2. Aldridge and Przybilla both averaged just over 1.2. I'm thinking that's pretty good company if he can be in there with those two as a rookie.


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## PorterIn2004 (Jan 1, 2003)

Entity said:


> I don't think it's really that tall of an order. I've spent the last year watching tons of video on the guy (including full games), and I just think he has the game to make that happen. Like you say, he'll get a lot of points at the freethrow line anyway. I think on top of that he'll get a few offensive rebounds and putbacks, and he'll have a few plays run for him in situations where he's _not_ fouled.


You may be right. I remember Pippen once comparing Bryant to Jordan. He said that part of Bryant's problem was that he seemed to always wanted to be scoring and that he seemed to be worrying about it. Then he contrasted that to Jordan, who figured he could average something like 3 shots per quarter in the flow of the offense, get another three or four (or at least get an assist) on fast breaks when they appeared, and that he'd get X from the line each half, leaving him averaging Y most nights, which should result in a win. Then there were the games when he'd just takeover, either because he was gloriously hot or because no one else was making a shot. All of that combined to a very high scoring average.

With Oden, if he gets even just a handful of plays called for him every game where he's able to convert, gets put-backs, and often enough gets fouled during each, he's scoring pretty well. Then, considering that he's likely to be leaving his man in the dust most nights, there's an additional couple of baskets from fast breaks.

On the other hand, this is all presuming he's getting PT. It's not that I'm worried McMillan won't play him but I _do_ expect he's going to spend a good deal of at least the first half of the year in foul trouble and then, even if he stays healthy, there's the rookie wall that might become a factor.

It'll be interesting to follow, regardless!


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## Darkwebs (May 23, 2006)

I think Oden can get somewhere around 14 pts (55 fg%), 9 rebs, 1.8 blks in 30 min per game. I hope he is a monster rebounder for us because we sucked at that this year. And I also hope that his points will be mostly from the paint, as we need some easy buckets instead of jumpshots most of the time.


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## c_note (Jan 30, 2007)

I'm thinkin 23 pts, 11 rebs, 12 blks, 9.8 assists per game for Oden next year.


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## seifer0406 (Jun 8, 2003)

If Greg Oden turns out to be better than Dwight, than he would be around Shaq's level. I haven't seen Oden's picture these days, but it's hard to imagine anyone more physically imposing than Dwight Howard. I mean Oden can be taller, but Dwight is built like a tank and perhaps the strongest guy in the league right now.


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## Entity (Feb 21, 2005)

seifer0406 said:


> If Greg Oden turns out to be better than Dwight, than he would be around Shaq's level. I haven't seen Oden's picture these days, but it's hard to imagine anyone more physically imposing than Dwight Howard. I mean Oden can be taller, but Dwight is built like a tank and perhaps the strongest guy in the league right now.


I don't know if Oden would be better, but even if he were to become just as good that would be significant. Oden is very strong and very athletic. I think he'd fall into that super strong class of center. Desagana Diop was playing against him in Summer League and he called him the strongest player he'd ever played against. I think the first few times Oden plays Howard, I think Howard will show him up just because he knows the game so much better. But I bet he at least does a double take at how strong he is. He might or might not surpass Howard's strength, but if he doesn't then I think he'll be much closer to him than anyone else in the league.


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## drexlersdad (Jun 3, 2006)

if oden plays 30 mpg, there is no way he averages under 10 rpg. im thinking 13 actually. points, im not sure, he will score at least 4-5 dunks a game off putbacks.


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## ebott (Jan 7, 2003)

10 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and 10 blocks. That's right, a quadruple-double in his rookie season.
oh, and we win the championship.

Seriously I think Dwight's rookie numbers are just a bit below where I expect Greg to be next season. Maybe more like 13 points, 11 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. The one big difference between Greg and Dwight's rookie seasons is that Greg will have a vastly superior team than Dwight did. Because of that I really expect most of Greg's points to come on dunks and the free throw line. It would not at all surprise me if Greg leads the league in field goal percentage next season.


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## thaKEAF (Mar 8, 2004)

I expect his rebound numbers to be around 9 a game but 18-20ppg? I don't see that happening.


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## BenDavis503 (Apr 11, 2007)

I think GO can at least match Howards rookie numbers.


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## wizmentor (Nov 10, 2005)

I don't know how they compare, but my not-so bold prediction is
that when they meet in a game, that game will be sold out


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## Reep (Jun 4, 2003)

It's hard to say. Oden wasn't a monster rebounder in college (9.6/game). But, he had the wrist injury and has bulked up quite a bit since then. Add in some expected foul problems, and I'm thinking he is good for *12 pts, 9 boards, 3 blocks *(I think he will focus on defense).


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## SabasRevenge! (Apr 20, 2008)

Darkwebs said:


> I think Oden can get somewhere around 14 pts (55 fg%), 9 rebs, 1.8 blks in 30 min per game. I hope he is a monster rebounder for us because we sucked at that this year. And I also hope that his points will be mostly from the paint, as we need some easy buckets instead of jumpshots most of the time.


IMO that's a pretty solid prediction. I could see a bump in his rebounds and blocks as he gets more comfortable out there next year. The guy seems like he's built to be a rebound and block machine with his size, strength, long arms, and solid hops - kind of like Dwight...

I also see Greg developing a much more diverse game on offense than Howard. He'll probably already have more range than Dwight next year and playing with LaMarcus will take some pressure off him on that end of the floor.


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## YoYoYoWasup (Nov 14, 2004)

PorterIn2004 said:


> Heh. Well, I just finished the post responding to Entity and now I find myself playing devil's advocate for you -- while I don't expect Oden to be a 20/10 guy as a rookie, he's bigger than Howard (and I think "longer" as well) _and_ I'm gonna guess he's faster. Similarly, I think he's a better ball handler and he's clearly a better free throw shooter, even with his off hand! Seems to me that, provided Oden can stay healthy, there's no reason he shouldn't pull ahead of Howard in nearly every category.


He's taller than Howard and slightly longer (9'4 standing reach compared to Dwight's 9'3.5 reach), but Howard actually has a bigger wingspan and is two inches shorter.

Either way, Howard and Oden will be the two premier centers in the league for years to come IMHO, and it would be great if we could get the two to start the season on TNT.


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## Utherhimo (Feb 20, 2005)

hehe Orlando vs Portland in the finals


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

BenDavis503 said:


> I think GO can at least match Howards rookie numbers.


me too. Because of his horrible free throw shooting, teams readily employ a Hack-A-Howard strategy. Orlando has to keep the ball out of his hands especially as the game winds down. DH also doesn't have much of a shot outside of dunks. Meanwhile Greg's coaches have been talking about him setting a goal of shooting 83% from the line so as to challenge Ming as the top FT shooting center in the league. They also expect him to be amoung the league leaders in FTs attempted. Dude can flat shoot and has surprising ball handling skills. Also Greg's year in college went a long way toward developing his off hand.

My best guess for GO is 16 points per game, 12 boards, 2 blocks.

STOMP


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## Elton (May 26, 2007)

wizmentor said:


> I don't know how they compare, but my not-so bold prediction is
> that when they meet in a game, that game will be sold out


And on national TV!!


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## Ruff Draft (Nov 21, 2004)

I'm gonna give or take a little off a double-double, but his blocks will be out of this world. I'm expecting 3-4pg.


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## Blue (Jun 21, 2007)

I like G.O., but Howard is scary becuz not only is he so strong and big like Greg, but his guard-like athletism for his size is so rare. If Oden can match Dwight in the that department then he may have a shot, but Dwight has had a head start on him and I dont no if anyone in the league can catch him at this point. Dwight's already breaking 40 year old records and he's only like two years older then Greg. One thing's for sure tho, it will be a damn good matchup to follow over the years and I hope that these two can form a new rivalry.


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## Jayps15 (Jul 21, 2007)

I don't expect Greg to play quite as many minutes as Dwight both because of fouls, depth, and precaution. What I do expect is for Greg to score more, get more blocks, and rebound less all on a per minute basis. He'll likely put up only about 13-15ppg and 2bpg, but he'll do it with less playing time. His rebounding numbers are trickier to predict for me, we're a poor rebounding team outside of Pryz, but Pryz won't be on the floor with Greg for much time if any at all. Greg wasn't necessarily a dominant rebounder at Ohio State but not bad either, and that was in limited minutes with a bad hand. I'd say maybe around 9rpg, just outside of double figures with his minutes. The real kicker to me though is FG% and FT% because this team needs high percentage easy baskets more than anything, and that's where I think Greg could separate himself. I would predict roughly 60% from the field and 75% from the ft line as early as next season. That kind of efficiency would mean a lot to this team, it could reliably keep games close instead of us giving up huge leads or going down big, and I like this teams chances in any close game.


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

I think that he will have a better rookie year than Dwight, but i'm not saying he will be better than Dwight.

Howard is one of the 3 players, imo, in the NBA that are the next gen superstars... LeBron, Paul and Howard. (I know they already are superstars).

But i predict, maybe 13.5 PPG and 9 RPG and 2 BPG for Greg.


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## deanwoof (Mar 10, 2003)

i dont think dwight and oden will have that much comparison.

Dwight and Bosh are going to have the most comparison/head to head matchups for the next 10 years since they are on the same conference a la Hakeem and Robinson. Oden will just be the third guy like Ewing.


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

deanwoof said:


> i dont think dwight and oden will have that much comparison.
> 
> Dwight and Bosh are going to have the most comparison/head to head matchups for the next 10 years since they are on the same conference a la Hakeem and Robinson. Oden will just be the third guy like Ewing.


you might be on to something with East West splitting the comparisons... I'd expect the main guy that Greg is compared to (at least at first) to be Bynum. 

STOMP


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## ebott (Jan 7, 2003)

deanwoof said:


> i dont think dwight and oden will have that much comparison.
> 
> Dwight and Bosh are going to have the most comparison/head to head matchups for the next 10 years since they are on the same conference a la Hakeem and Robinson. Oden will just be the third guy like Ewing.


I'm assuming that you're just talking about proximity. That because Dwight and Bosh play each other 3-4 times a year and are likely to meet in the playoffs every year for quite a while you're comparing them to Hakeem/Robinson and Oden to Ewing simply because he's on the opposite side of the country.


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## LittleAlex (Feb 14, 2008)

The big number that Oden won't match will be minutes played. I am guessing around 22 to 26 minutes per game due to extreme foul trouble. I think he has a chance to lead the league in that dubious stat next year. GO has already said he is going to try and block every single shot that comes his way next year. With Portlands less then stellar perimiter defense, I am guessing that is going to be a huge number of block attempts. Add that to inexperiance and you have a receipe for 4 to 5 fouls per game. Due to playing time limitations, he will most certainly not be able to exceed Howards rookie numbers. I would guess 10 and 10, with 2.5 blocks per game.


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## RoyToy (May 25, 2007)

I think Greg will be the better defender/shot blocker. He can block shots with both hands like it's nothing. I think Greg will win DPOY many times. Offensively they'll be about the same, with Howard probably going to be the better rebounder.

It's hard because we never got a good look at what Greg can do. He was playing with one hand pretty much his whole college career and it was his weak hand. The NC game against Florida was the healthiest Greg had been all year and he dominated(25pts,12reb,4blk), and that was against a front line of Noah/Horford, both who had pretty good rookie years - especially Horford.

When Oden and Howard face each other I don't see either of them getting pushed around by the other. Greg is just freakishly strong and so is Howard. Athletically they're close as well, assuming Oden recovers fully.


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## BlazerFan22 (Jul 4, 2006)

This is stupid Greg Oden has not even played in an NBA game yet. The Orlando Magic would be suckers not asking for more in this deal. How are you going to compare a proven player to an unproven player? How about the Blazers roll the dice and trade Roy for Rose without asking for more.


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## Jayps15 (Jul 21, 2007)

BlazerFan22 said:


> This is stupid Greg Oden has not even played in an NBA game yet. The Orlando Magic would be suckers not asking for more in this deal. How are you going to compare a proven player to an unproven player? How about the Blazers roll the dice and trade Roy for Rose without asking for more.


???


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## HispanicCausinPanic (Jul 2, 2005)

BlazerFan22 said:


> This is stupid Greg Oden has not even played in an NBA game yet. The Orlando Magic would be suckers not asking for more in this deal. How are you going to compare a proven player to an unproven player? How about the Blazers roll the dice and trade Roy for Rose without asking for more.


If anybody knows what this guy is talking about, let me know!


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

I think since all the "Would you trade ___ for ___ straight up?" threads, he thinks this is "would you trade Dwight Howard for Greg Oden?" maybe?

Best i can do.


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## BlazerFan22 (Jul 4, 2006)

HispanicCausinPanic said:


> If anybody knows what this guy is talking about, let me know!


Nobody in there right mind would trade a proven all star for an unproven all star straight up. I don't care who and how good you were in college. If the player has not played a game in the NBA yet how can you even compare the two? How do we know Oden is not going to be a bust? Fact is we don't. Lets compare Darek Rose to Brandon Roy who do you think is better?


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## B-Roy (Feb 12, 2008)

BlazerFan22 said:


> Nobody in there right mind would trade a proven all star for an unproven all star straight up. I don't care who and how good you were in college. If the player has not played a game in the NBA yet how can you even compare the two? How do we know Oden is not going to be a bust? Fact is we don't. Lets compare Darek Rose to Brandon Roy who do you think is better?


Read the first post. This isn't a thread on whether or not we should trade Oden for Howard.


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## HispanicCausinPanic (Jul 2, 2005)

BlazerFan22 said:


> Nobody in there right mind would trade a proven all star for an unproven all star straight up. I don't care who and how good you were in college. If the player has not played a game in the NBA yet how can you even compare the two? How do we know Oden is not going to be a bust? Fact is we don't. Lets compare Darek Rose to Brandon Roy who do you think is better?


My man............you need to READ before you TYPE! I just stated what Dwight Howard's #'s were his rookie season and if it is realistic for us to expect the same from Greg. Next!


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

Blue Magic said:


> I like G.O., but Howard is scary becuz not only is he so strong and big like Greg, but his guard-like athletism for his size is so rare. If Oden can match Dwight in the that department then he may have a shot, but Dwight has had a head start on him and I dont no if anyone in the league can catch him at this point. Dwight's already breaking 40 year old records and he's only like two years older then Greg. One thing's for sure tho, it will be a damn good matchup to follow over the years and I hope that these two can form a new rivalry.


http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/?year=All&sort2=ASC&draft=15&sort=

if you check out the numbers from their respective pre-drafts you'll see that Greg is bigger then DH and right with him on the run/jump drills... and he can make his Free Throws!

looking forward to those matchups

STOMP


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## deanwoof (Mar 10, 2003)

Yes, Dwight and Bosh being in the same conference (and the East mind you) will only get them more exposure and comparison, just like how Hakeem and Robinson did or how Chris Paul and Deron Williams are being compared 24/7 (and doesn't it amaze you how Devin Harris suddenly "fell off" since he got sent East?). 

Or I could be completely wrong and Oden will become the next Shaq and have nobody else to be compared to?


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## BlazerFan22 (Jul 4, 2006)

Well we will find out soon enough. I think Dwight will be the true test for oden.


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

I think Oden will surpass Howard's rookie numbers. A lot of people seem to think that this is a size (Oden) vs. athleticism (Howard) match-up. It's not. Oden is bigger and just as athletic. That is why scouts have been drooling over him since he was an underclassman in high school. In addition, Howard was a raw athlete coming into the league while Oden has surprising polish for a player of his age and experience.

I expect Howard to be a better player than Oden this year, but Oden should close the gap quickly and I think he's likely to have a better career. Oden essentially has no weaknesses as a player; he has a true center body, he's an athletic freak, he has great footwork, he has natural shooting skills, his defensive instincts and skills are first-rate and he's an extremely smart and hard-working player, which bodes well for him picking up skills where he's deficient.

Dwight Howard and Greg Oden, to me, is a bit like Alonzo Mourning and David Robinson, respectively. Either one is a franchise center, but Robinson was simply the better player virtually across the board.


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## bootstrenf (May 24, 2006)

Minstrel said:


> I think Oden will surpass Howard's rookie numbers. A lot of people seem to think that this is a size (Oden) vs. athleticism (Howard) match-up. It's not. Oden is bigger and just as athletic. That is why scouts have been drooling over him since he was an underclassman in high school. In addition, Howard was a raw athlete coming into the league while Oden has surprising polish for a player of his age and experience.
> 
> I expect Howard to be a better player than Oden this year, but Oden should close the gap quickly and I think he's likely to have a better career. Oden essentially has no weaknesses as a player; he has a true center body, he's an athletic freak, he has great footwork, he has natural shooting skills, his defensive instincts and skills are first-rate and he's an extremely smart and hard-working player, which bodes well for him picking up skills where he's deficient.
> 
> Dwight Howard and Greg Oden, to me, is a bit like Alonzo Mourning and David Robinson, respectively. Either one is a franchise center, but Robinson was simply the better player virtually across the board.


agree with everything except that howard has the edge in durability...


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

bootstrenf said:


> agree with everything except that howard has the edge in durability...


That's true, he might. I think it is early, though, to say Oden has a durability problem. Both his wrist injury and knee injury were of the non-chronic variety. Suffering two key injuries in consecutive years is alarming, but he didn't have an injury problem before his freshman year at OSU, so it may just be two isolated incidents.


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## jman23 (Aug 13, 2007)

iversonfan 349 said:


> I think oden will have a good year but he wont be better than howard in his career imo.


my guess...his stats will be 10pts,10rebs,2blks.???


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## bootstrenf (May 24, 2006)

Minstrel said:


> That's true, he might. I think it is early, though, to say Oden has a durability problem. Both his wrist injury and knee injury were of the non-chronic variety. Suffering two key injuries in consecutive years is alarming, but he didn't have an injury problem before his freshman year at OSU, so it may just be two isolated incidents.


very true....

i wouldn't call oden injury prone...he just happened to sustain a few in his career....


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## BlazerFan22 (Jul 4, 2006)

jman23 said:


> my guess...his stats will be 10pts,10rebs,2blks.???


I would like to see his points stat in the 15-17PPG range.


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## B-Roy (Feb 12, 2008)

BlazerFan22 said:


> Well we will find out soon enough. I think Dwight will be the true test for oden.


Why do you bump all these threads (mostly yours) with a useless post?


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## BlazerFan22 (Jul 4, 2006)

B-Roy said:


> Why do you bump all these threads (mostly yours) with a useless post?


I just think we could have used some other topic. Talking about Blazers injurys was getting depressing.


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## B-Roy (Feb 12, 2008)

There were other discussions going on too....


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## Blue (Jun 21, 2007)

November 10th.


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## Da_O (Jul 30, 2008)

False: Black Bear

Bears eat beats

Bears beat Battlestar Galactica.


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## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

13ppg, 10.5rpg, 1.5apg, 1.8bpg, 32mpg, 75 games played

Thats what I expect, and that would be an amazing year for him.


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## Dan (Dec 30, 2002)

Blue Magic said:


> November 10th.


Whats my grandmothers birthday have to do with anything?


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## Boob-No-More (Apr 24, 2006)

jman23 said:


> my guess...his stats will be 10pts,10rebs,2blks.???


I can't believe how low some people's expectations are for Greg Oden. This is Greg Oden people - the best big man to come into the league since Tim Duncan. The most imposing physical presence since the young Shaquille O'Neal. And, yet people are predicting numbers that look more like a rookie Andrew Bogut than Duncan or Shaq. I'm not saying he'll put up Shaq or Duncan numbers his rookie year (mostly do to the Blazers having so many other offensive weapons), but come on people, Andrea Bargnani averaged over 11.6 PPG coming of the bench as a rookie and Channing Frye averaged 12.3 PPG as a rookie. And you think Oden as a starter will average ~20% fewer PPG as a rookie than Bargnani and Frye did? Seriously? I think you should ask Channing Frye if he thinks Oden will score *2.3 FEWER PPG as a rookie than he did*. Go ahead, ask him. Frye has spent the last week playing against Oden. I think he'll have a pretty good idea of what Oden is capable of and I bet it is considerably more than 10 PPG.

I know, I know, we shouldn't get our hopes up too much, and perhaps after years of Chris Dudley, Theo Ratliff and Joel Przybilla, we're just conditioned to not expect much offensively from the center position, but come on people, this is *GREG ODEN - DOMINANT BIG MAN*, not greg oden role player.

I think Oden will be right there with LaMarcus and just behind Roy at 17 - 19 PPG as a rookie and will lead the team in rebounding at 10 - 12 RPG and average at least 2.8 RPG. By the end of the season, I would not be surprised to see Oden being our leading scorer in most games. And, I've said this many times before, by the time we are contending for a title, Greg Oden will be our leading scorer.

BNM


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## yuyuza1 (May 24, 2006)

I have nothing more to add to this thread than this video I found. 

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hCeAc9TIoK0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hCeAc9TIoK0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

I don't think we've had a guy who screams while dunking since Sheed.


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## dreamcloud (Aug 8, 2008)

I find it weird that neither Orlando vs. Portland games are national televised at all.. 

Also great vid!!^^


As for predictions..

Tampered/"Realistic" numbers:

12 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 2.0 blk

*Gut predictions:*

16 ppg, 12 rpg, 2.5 blk


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## L (Sep 20, 2005)

I think that Oden's rookie campaign will be better than Dwight's.

I say..... 16ppg, 10.5rpg, 1.7bpg


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## HAAK72 (Jun 18, 2007)

L said:


> I think that Oden's rookie campaign will be better than Dwight's.


...easily!!!

[16.66 PPG | 11.11 RPG | 2.22 BPG | +/-]


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## dkap (May 13, 2003)

Minstrel said:


> Suffering two key injuries in consecutive years is alarming, but he didn't have an injury problem before his freshman year at OSU, so it may just be two isolated incidents.


Well, except for the emergency hip surgery when he was young...

Dan


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## Minstrel (Dec 31, 2002)

dkap said:


> Well, except for the emergency hip surgery when he was young...


I wasn't aware of that. Was it considered an injury problem, going into college or the draft?


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## Fork (Jan 2, 2003)

ROYisR.O.Y. said:


> dont care about points he will get his but rebs i would love 10pts 12rebs


That's about what Przybilla averages per 40 minutes. I'm pretty sure Oden can do better.


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## hasoos (Jan 3, 2003)

I would point out that Greg Oden is a much more polished basketball player than Howard his rookie year. Howard, while very strong and a quick jumper, was almost robotic, and had no post moves. All his scores came off of emphatic dunks, a lot of them put backs. Oden has much more game than that. I expect Oden to be near 18 and 12 by seasons end.


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

I say about 12 and 10 and 2 in about 32mpg.


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## dkap (May 13, 2003)

Minstrel said:


> I wasn't aware of that. Was it considered an injury problem, going into college or the draft?


Someone with a better memory than me can chime in, but I believe it was around 6th grade and in Greg's description, one day he came home from school and his leg was barely hanging onto the hip. Maybe it was just his goofy way of describing things, but it sounded pretty serious.

Dan


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## mook (Dec 31, 2002)

yuyuza1 said:


> I have nothing more to add to this thread than this video I found.
> 
> <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hCeAc9TIoK0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hCeAc9TIoK0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
> 
> I don't think we've had a guy who screams while dunking since Sheed.


After watching that video, it's hard to imagine Oden averaging less than 15 points. He's just so much bigger than Frye, without giving up any mobility. 

Offensively talentless guys like Dale Davis, Dikembe Mutombo and Tyson Chandler regularly get 10 points just on put backs, dunks, and defensive mistakes where they accidentally get guarded by a PG. And most of them think they are doing pretty well when they hit 70% of their free throws. 

Greg Oden already clearly has a lot more offensive game than any of those guys. And he's going to get fed the ball a lot, because McMillan runs a slow-it-down offense that favors strong post play. 

I can see Oden averaging 15-16 ppg pretty easily. Maybe not in the first month, but over the course of the season.


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## HispanicCausinPanic (Jul 2, 2005)

He'll get 6 free throws a game. He'll also get 5 dunks on put backs. That's 14-15 points right there, without running one play for him. A couple months ago, I thought he would probably get 10 a game. I'm starting to think it will be closer to 20.


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