# Surprise 2009 Lottery Pick



## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Let's hear some thoughts on who you think could be a surprise lottery pick in the 2009 draft. To define "surprise," let's say not currently listed among Chad Ford's top 14, draftexpress.com's top 14 or nbadraft.net's top 14.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

My pick, by the way, is Cole Aldrich, sophomore center from Kansas. With a major role all but guaranteed after the roster overhaul, his considerable talent and the fact that productive bigs are likely to move up, I think he could easily end up going in the lottery. If he were to average, say, 13 and 9--very realistic, I think--he could realistically declare with a legit shot. I mean, Patrick O'Bryant was able to leverage a decent season at Bradley into lottery status. I'd say Aldrich, with one at Kansas, can do the same.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

I was also going to say a center, but my pick would have to be Andrew Ogilvy. That wouldn't shock anyone probably, he is just not listed as a lottery pick on any of those sites. 

I also have to mention Tyler Smith again, he could have a huge season and what is looking like a weak class right now, he might be one of the sleepers.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

croco said:


> I also have to mention Tyler Smith again, he could have a huge season and what is looking like a weak class right now, he might be one of the sleepers.


I think Tyler Smith is a great choice. I was actually surprised when he didn't leave after his first season at Iowa. Not that I thought he should, but with his coach leaving and his ability to play right away elsewhere up in the air, I thought he would. He was certainly talented enough to be an NBA player, although he'll be in much better position now, obviously, improved as he is.


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

Jerome Jordan


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Eric Maynor, VCU


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

MemphisX said:


> Jerome Jordan


Ford has him 10th.


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## bball2223 (Jul 21, 2006)

Manny Harris from Michigan.


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## HB (May 1, 2004)

Tywon Lawson


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

HB said:


> Tywon Lawson


I wonder just how much he can improve his standing. I think with him it's more a case of what teams are drafting where, and what they want. Last season people were saying late first was the best he could hope for, but it's not like there were a plethora of point guards being taken where he would otherwise have been. If there were no Derrick Rose, Lawson wasn't going to go first. Westbrook wasn't drafted for his PG ability, so I'm not really considering him. Then Augustin and Bayless were later lottery, with Bayless not really in what I'd consider direct competition with Lawson, either, being a different kind of player altogether. (If you wanted one, you probably didn't want the other). The main knock on him--height--isn't likely to change. He improved his shooting percentages last year. Decision-making can always improve. His speed is already amazing. I could imagine him being a lottery pick and eventual NBA starter, certainly, if the right team loves him. And I could imagine him being a talented guy never seeming to get in the right spot, too.


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## nbanoitall (May 21, 2004)

I'll give you 2 possibles.... Johnny Flynn / Craig Brackins


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

Of the names mentioned, I like Tyler Smith the most; he reminds me of a mini-Caron. Totally agree with Kong on Maynor. Frankly, I'm surprised he's back in school this year; I see him as an eventual NBA starter. I'm not a Brackens fan at all - reminds me too much of Brian Cook. I like Flynn as well, although his size may make some dismiss him too quickly. Otherwise, Jordan Hill could be there with a surprise year - love his size and athleticism. James Johnson is one of my favorite underrated guys - great SF size, strength, athleticism, rebounding, defense; numbers will decrease across the board with that crazy frosh frontcourt coming into Wake, though.

OT, but seeing Stephen Curry in some top 10, let alone lotto, projections just blows my mind. Unless he demonstrates great, not average or good, playmaking ability this year without Davidson, I don't see how he could be justified in the first 15, let alone 25. Tiny, shooting-specialist college superstars will seemingly always be wildly overrated in terms of NBA value. It's that kind of thinking that selects the JJ Redicks before the Ronnie Brewers and the Langdons before the Maggettes and Artests.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

RebelSun said:


> OT, but seeing Stephen Curry in some top 10, let alone lotto, projections just blows my mind. Unless he demonstrates great, not average or good, playmaking ability this year without Davidson, I don't see how he could be justified in the first 15, let alone 25. Tiny, shooting-specialist college superstars will seemingly always be wildly overrated in terms of NBA value.


I agree. I like Curry, and think he'll be a good pro, but within reason and in a role. He's more than just a shooter--he has a knack for getting his points one way or the other. But his physical limitations aren't going to go away. He's the kind of guy who will be able to come off a bench and score some points, but not be worth a lottery pick. I'm thinking Tony Delk.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

luther said:


> I agree. I like Curry, and think he'll be a good pro, but within reason and in a role. He's more than just a shooter--he has a knack for getting his points one way or the other. But his physical limitations aren't going to go away. He's the kind of guy who will be able to come off a bench and score some points, but not be worth a lottery pick. I'm thinking Tony Delk.


It's premature referring to Curry as 'just a shooter,' but if you have to be succinct, I'm comfortable just calling him a 'shooter.' I think there's definitely a place for him in the league, but it's a specialized role and not for every team. I could see him on the Lakers, Cavs, Blazers, Heat, etc. where the primary ballhandler isn't the PG. Kind of the Derek Fisher role - shoot 3s and don't make mistakes. But for every Fisher who cashes full-MLE paychecks doing that, there several Salim Stoudemires, who may be a better shooter than Curry, who can't secure any guaranteed NBA deal.


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## luther (Nov 2, 2007)

Agree completely.


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## nbanoitall (May 21, 2004)

RebelSun said:


> I'm not a Brackens fan at all - reminds me too much of Brian Cook. .


Brackins does have a pretty decent jumpshot (especially for a 6'10 Freshman now sophmore). He's got a much better frame than Cook. I'd suspect he fills out to 250 lbs. I also believe he will be a much better defender in the paint. I expect big things this year especially defensively and on the low block this year. Iowa State lost there two best wings (one graduated the other left) so other teams will continue to focus heavily on Brackins. Its a shame he doesn't have some more talent around him.


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## HKF (Dec 10, 2002)

Evan Turner of Ohio State also seems poised for a big year. 6'6 SG prospect, with a lot of potential.


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## coolpohle (Dec 28, 2006)

Tyrese Rice, Boston College


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

RebelSun said:


> It's premature referring to Curry as 'just a shooter,' but if you have to be succinct, I'm comfortable just calling him a 'shooter.' I think there's definitely a place for him in the league, but it's a specialized role and not for every team. I could see him on the Lakers, Cavs, Blazers, Heat, etc. where the primary ballhandler isn't the PG. Kind of the Derek Fisher role - shoot 3s and don't make mistakes. But for every Fisher who cashes full-MLE paychecks doing that, there several Salim Stoudemires, who may be a better shooter than Curry, who can't secure any guaranteed NBA deal.


I think the difference is the ability to run a team and defend both guard positions.

If Curry shows an NBA ability to play the point then he will rocket up the draft board.


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## Redeemed (Feb 2, 2008)

croco said:


> I was also going to say a center, but my pick would have to be Andrew Ogilvy. That wouldn't shock anyone probably, he is just not listed as a lottery pick on any of those sites.
> 
> I also have to mention Tyler Smith again, he could have a huge season and what is looking like a weak class right now, he might be one of the sleepers.


Totally agreed on Ogilvy.


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## number1pick (May 24, 2007)

I will give you a couple of guys, one is Patrick Mills the dude looked legit during the Olympics against the US team, getting into the lane at will, improved shooting and decision making and playing a bit more in control probably vaults him into the lottery. 

Another guy a lot of people might laugh at is Connor Atchley, I know he looks goofy, but Todd Wright, best S&C coach in college bball, has done a great job getting this kid stronger, quicker, faster, more athletic. He's always been able to shoot the 3, he's added a running hook, he showed he could put it on the floor a little bit, and his post game is improving, he's already a great shot blocker, he's got excellent timing and size, he's a pretty good rebounder. He shows an improved post game, better rebounding, and an improved face-up game and he'll probably be in the lottery.


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

I can see Mills, but Connor Atchley ? Come on now, he doesn't even have a position and he is old for a senior. At this point he would be lucky if anyone drafts him at the end of the second round.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

Turner is an interesting one; so many studs recently at OSU, it's easy it be overlooked. Atchley reminds me of Austin Croshere, which isn't a bad thing; I just don't see NBA starting material in him. His draft stock is bloated right now and some mock projections of him for '09 reflect the weak coming draft. I'd like to see him become more aggressive down low. Mills is interesting, but do you take him before Collison, Lawson, or Rice? Good luck to the GM that has to pick first from that group - who knows who'll become an MLE+ player or wash out of the league.


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## Redeemed (Feb 2, 2008)

So is Patrick Patterson a lock for the lottery like I think he is? If not that's another one i'll add to the conversation.


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## jman23 (Aug 13, 2007)

jeremy pargo,PG,Gonzaga


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## coolpohle (Dec 28, 2006)

not a chance...Pargo's so overrated.


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## jman23 (Aug 13, 2007)

coolpohle said:


> not a chance...Pargo's so overrated.


overrated? oh no pargo will be decent on the nba level because he has speed and people who have speed adjust to the nba game easily, plus don't forget this is a weak draft class and i'm sure alot of teams need a backup PG.


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## rebelsun (Nov 25, 2003)

Pargo is interesting, but he absolutely has to improve that outstide shot. No reason at all to shoot only 26% from the college three as a junior guard with plenty of minutes. His AST/TO and overall FG% have improved each year though, which is a good sign. Right now, I think he'd be interesting in the mid-2nd round. A great season with much improved shooting numbers could sneak him into the 1st.


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## Finchstatic (Dec 24, 2004)

stephen curry. oh wait is this a surprise. cause i see him landing on the 17-31st pick


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## HB (May 1, 2004)

Weak draft class, but I am throwing this one out there

Joevan Catron 6'6 235lbs SF from Oregon. A team like the Raptors could use a guy like this.


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## Geaux Tigers (Apr 26, 2004)

HB said:


> Weak draft class, but I am throwing this one out there
> 
> Joevan Catron 6'6 235lbs SF from Oregon. A team like the Raptors could use a guy like this.


Wow! I was just about to post about this guy. I haven't seen handles on a big guy like this in a long long while.


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## jman23 (Aug 13, 2007)

dionte christmas,SG,temple,he's a lights out shooter reminds me of quentin richardson(less talent)


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## Nu_Omega (Nov 27, 2006)

A.J Ogilvy from Vanderbilt


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## aussiestatman (Dec 12, 2006)

is jordan hill a surprise to anyone?


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## coolpohle (Dec 28, 2006)

aussiestatman said:


> is jordan hill a surprise to anyone?


I don't think so. He seems like a solid lottery pick right now.

Someone I would keep an eye on is Chris Wright, a 6-1 sophomore PG from Georgetown.


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## HB (May 1, 2004)

Dajuan Summers will play himself into the lottery. Legit NBA SF size and tools


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## croco (Feb 14, 2005)

HB said:


> Dajuan Summers will play himself into the lottery. Legit NBA SF size and tools


He is playing well so far against Pitt, but lottery ?


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## HB (May 1, 2004)

Yeah its 15 picks for the lottery. DE has guys like Curry, Mullens, Jennings, Derozan, Singler all going to the first 15 picks. Can anyone say outside of Curry that any of those guys are having a better season than Summers?


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## MemphisX (Sep 11, 2002)

I would take Summers over Budinger easily.


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## HB (May 1, 2004)

Draft.net has Brackens going in the lottery. I dont know why but oh well...


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## coolpohle (Dec 28, 2006)

I don't think I ever saw an Iowa St. game in his two years. That's how bad that program is. I'm guessing they wouldn't have won double digit games without him in the two seasons he was there, though.

I'm thinking that he's under the radar enough that we won't see him go in the lottery, but shortly thereafter. I would take someone like Patrick Patterson over him but not someone like B.J. Mullens.


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