# My 'Moderatley' Realistic, Long as Helll Offseason Plan...



## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS OFFSEASON 2008 

DRAFT DAY TRADE (PDX/NYK) 
NOTE: This trade is contingent on Rudy Fernandez signing previous to the deal, as it is widley assumed that Sergio, his friend, may play a role in his decision to come over this year. 


New York Trades 
-Renaldo Balkman 
-Future 2nd round draft pick (Due after 2009) 

Portland Trailblazers Trade 
-Sergio Rodriguez 
-Josh McRoberts 
-2008 2nd round pick (#55 via. Phoenix via. Indiana) 


WHY NYK DOES IT 
Their new coach could do wonders to a assist master like Sergio. Granted, he has many weaknesses. He is a terrible defender and has a flat shot. But, he is an absolutley amazing passer and has a court awarness that is simply amasing. At this point, he can change a game while playing matador D and missing every J he shoots. That is a testament to his distributing abilities. I think, in a Mike D offense, he could really shine. It is widley known that McMillian extremley favors defensivley oriented, and large, PG's. So, I dont ever see him flourishing under Nate. On the other hand, he could shine in NYK. Also note that the Knicks recieve a nice developmental player in McRoberts. While proving nothing this season, he certainly posesses some skills to be at times consitered a top 20 pick last season. Not to mention the late 2nd round sweetner doesnt hurt. Finally, as promising as Balkman seems, he could prove redundant with Chandler in NYK. 
NOTE: I am not going to hypothise the Knicks 2008/09 roster because I think some more radical and unperdicted changes could take place in concurrence with this deal. 

WHY PORTLAND DOES IT 
As stated above, I dont ever see Sergio flourishing in McMillians system. He simply doesnt fit, and has made it to an extent known that he knows just that. I love the kid and want him to succeed, but it wont be in P-Town. Balkman isnt going to be a starter in Portland, but I think he could develop into a great defensive stopper off the bench in Portland. A sort of Ruben Patterson type glue guy without the post-up game. I see a future rotation of Webster/Balkman as very complimentary and up to task defensivley. Also, Portland grabs a future 2nd, which could become another top 5 2nd rounder. 




PORTLAND DRAFT DAY 

-With the 13th pick in the NBA draft, the Portland Trailblazers select Russell Westbrook PG (UCLA, So., 6'4, 185lbs) 

The Blazers take a raw, but talented developmental PG. Westbrook has amazing defensive potential and proved to be an adept playmaker this season. Although he cant shoot well yet, that is an aspect that can be improved upton. He learns for a few years before taking ober Steve Blake's backup spot. 

-With the 33rd pick in the NBA draft, the Portland Trailblazers select Nikola Pekovic C (Serbia, 22 years old, 6'11, 245lbs) 

Here, the Blazers select to go with a semi-veteran banger. Pekovic might not come over for a long time, but is a very talented player. He bangs well and can become a nice eventual backup to Oden as Joel slows down. Unlike previous Blazer European picks (Freeland, Koponen), Pekovic has previously proven his game at a high level in Europe. He is a nice mix of old school finess game and overall offensive talent. 

-With the 36th pick in the NBA draft, the Portland Trailblazers select Omer Asik PF/C (Europe, 21 years old, 6'11, 230lbs) 

Will later be traded. The type of talent that will prove valuable to a team looking for a 'stash' player. 




POST DRAFT DAY TRADE #1 (PDX/CHI/TOR/NJN) 

Portland Trades 
-Raef LaFrentz (12.7M) to NJN 
-Travis Outlaw (4M) to NJN 
-Jarrett Jack (2M) to TOR 
-2008 2nd round pick (#36 from MEM) to NJN 
-2009 1st round pick (Top 20 Protected) to NJN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------- 
TOTAL: 18.7M 

Portland Recieves 
-Kirk Hinrich (10M) from CHI 
-Jose Garbajosa (4.4M) from TOR 
-Stromile Swift (6M) from NJN 
------------------------------------------------- 
TOTAL: 20.4M 



Chicago Trades 
-Kirk Hinrich (10M) to PDX 
------------------------------------------- 
TOTAL: 10M 

Chicago Recieves 
-TJ Ford (8M) from TOR 
-Mo Ager (1M) from NJN 
-------------------------------------- 
TOTAL: 9M 



Toronto Trades 
-TJ Ford (8M) to CHI 
-Jose Garbajosa (4.4M) to PDX 
-Carlos Delfino (2.7M Qualifying Offer) to NJN 
-2008 1st round pick (#17) to NJN 
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
TOTAL: 15.1M 

Toronto Recieves 
-Richard Jefferson (13.2M) from NJN 
-Jarrett Jack (2M) from PDX 
------------------------------------------------------ 
TOTAL: 15.2M 



New Jersey Trades 
-Richard Jefferson (13.2M) to TOR 
-Stromile Swift (6M) to PDX 
-Mo Ager (1M) to CHI 
------------------------------------------------- 
TOTAL: 19.2M 

New Jersey Recieves 
-Raef LaFrentz (12.7M) from PDX 
-Travis Outlaw (4M) from PDX 
-Carlos Delfino (2.7M Qualifying Offer) from TOR 
-2008 1st round pick (#17) from TOR 
-2008 2nd round pick (#36 from MEM) from PDX 
-2009 1st round pick (Top 20 Protected) from PDX 
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
TOTAL: 20.4M 



WHY CHI DOES IT 
They decide to get a change of pace PG who fits a more traditional role. While Ford is a terrible 3 point shooter and isnt the defender that Kirk is, he is a better overall passer and slasher. He can get into the lane and dish very well, while also finishing nicely at the rim. Basically, they decide to change the face of their PG position, as it was clear it simply didnt click last season. NOTE: Although this deal would almost certainly be followed up with a deal for a SG, I am going to hypothesize their depth chart anyways. With #9 they take Chase Budinger (Likley in a trade down), and at #39 they take DeVon Hardin 

PG- TJ Ford/Ben Gordon/Thabo Sefolosha/Larry Hughes 
SG- Thabo Sefolosha/Ben Gordon/Chase Budinger/Larry Hughes 
SF- Luol Deng/Andres Nocoini/Shannon Brown 
PF- Tyrus Thomas/Drew Gooden 
C- Joakim Noah/DeVon Hardin/Aaron Grey 

WHY TOR DOES IT 
They get the near all-star SF that they need. RJ is a great second fiddle, and unlike nearly every other wingman they have, he can create his own shot. Its basically as simple as that. Jack replaces TJ as the backup PG, and will be much more content as a backup than TJ. Although they loose a 1st, they are so deep with mediocre talent that it doesnt hurt that bad. 

PG- Jose Calderon/Jarrett Jack/Darrick Martin 
SG- Anthony Parker/Jason Kaponi 
SF- Richard Jefferson/Jamario Moon/Joey Graham 
PF- Chris Bosh/Kris Humphries 
C- Rasho Nesterovic/Andrea Bargnani/Maceo Baston 

WHY NJN DOES IT 
This initiates the rebuild. They get a huge expiring contract in Raef, a developing and potential laden SF in Outlaw, two 1st round picks and a high 2nd rounder. They also get a year rental of Delfino, who could stay if he plays well and NJ finds a suitor for Carter. Outlaw can be a real keeper for their core group of youngins, as he can create his own shot and run the floor well. At 17, they can take BPA. NOTE: With #10 they take Nicolas Batum, with #17 they take Roy Hibbert and with #40 they take Richard Hendrix. 

PG- Devin Harris/Marcus Williams 
SG- Vince Carter/Carlos Delfino/Nicolas Batum 
SF- Travis Outlaw/Boki Nachbar/Trenton Hassell 
PF- Josh Boone/Sean Williams/Richard Hendrix 
C- Roy Hibbert/Nenad Krstic 

WHY PDX DOES IT 
They get the PG that fits their team perfectly. Kirk is the defender they need, and has the ability to play off the ball. He can start the break, but doesnt have to take the burden to being a playmaker 100% of the time because he will be alongside Roy. Garbajosa is a nice 5th big man off the bench, and can be used as a 3 point specialist ala. Brian Cook in LA. Stromile would be cut after this deal, simple because he seems like the type that would create a distrubance if he doesnt get PT, which he would not in Portland. Still, a owner like Paul Allen can afford to do such. 




FREE AGENCY 

-Blazers sign Zendon Hamilton C (St. Johns, 33 years old, 6'11, 255lbs) to a 1 year deal at the vet. minimum 

A great 3rd string C that has impressed 2 pre-seasons in a row in Portland. Wont demand minutes, but will be a nice locker room presence and play his heart out in the few minutes a game he gets. 

-Blazers sign undrafted free-agent Bryce Taylor (Oregon, 22 years old, 6'4, 205lbs) to a 1 year deal at the vet. minimum 

I have a real hunch Taylor goes undrafted. He is one of those guys that will just blend in during workouts and does nothing spectacularly. Still, he is a nice well rounded player that can be worth a cheap contract. Bryce will be developed into a 3rd string versatile SG, and can be cut if needed. Throw him in the D-League for the year and see if he marinates. 




*2008/09 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS ROSTER* 
PG- Kirk Hinrich/Steve Blake/Russell Westbrook 
SG- Brandon Roy/Rudy Fernandez 
SF- Martell Webster/James Jones/Renaldo Balkman 
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge/Channing Frye/Jose Garbajosa 
C- Greg Oden/Joel Pryzbilla/Zendon Hamilton 

D-League: Bryce Taylor 
Europe: Nikola Pekovic, Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen


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## B-Roy (Feb 12, 2008)

Was this from the realgm board?


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## Samuel (Jan 1, 2003)

Doesnt pass the smell test. If we're talking about hinrich as the pgotf, I think Outlaw is too much to give up. Besides, why give up outlaw for Hinrich when Toronto would probably deal calderon if we packaged TO correctly? Let's not undervalue a guy like travis: he's a ridiculously young combo forward with crazy athleticism and an already developed J. Best of all he seems impervious to the difference between a regular play and a play in the last 1.5 min.

chi: why sell low on a stock for a suddenly mediocre stock with problems..... NECK problems. Why bother?

Njn: they'd blush at this deal.

Por: much ado about nothing.


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## Samuel (Jan 1, 2003)

almost forgot;

Tor: deals a huge contract with health problems and a role player with health problems for a top level starter who may not be what the answer to their problems. A pretty sweet return, but doesnt strike me as a BC type deal.


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## gambitnut (Jan 4, 2003)

Here's mine ...

Lose Miles. (Done!)
Trade the 55th pick and either 33rd or 36th for 31st pick.
Use 31st on a European who would have been a first round pick if not for contract issues.
Leave them overseas.
If we have another second round pick, use it on another European.
Leave them overseas too.
Buy the Phoenix first round pick again.
Trade Przybilla and Jack for Jason Collins and a draft pick.
Trade two of our three first round draft picks (Portland, Memphis and Phoenix in this dream) for a pick high enough to get Gallinari.
Pick the best C available with the other first round pick.
Sign Webster and Frye to extensions.
Renounce Wafer.
Pick up options for Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw and Rodriguez as needed.
Bring over Fernandez and Koponen.

I think the 31st pick is very valuable as the first pick with no guaranteed contract and buyout limit attached to it, still, an extra pick might be enough to move up two spots to get that pick, but probably not five spots.

If Phoenix wises up and refuses to sell us another pick, hope Gallinari falls to 13 like I just read in a Chad Ford article, or try to buy a slightly higher pick than 13th.

The idea behind the Jason Collins trade is to get a defensive backup C, even if he is not as good as Joel, with an expiring contract, and get rid of Jack to thin the rotation and see what Nate does without his crutch. Memphis gets a pretty good combo guard and a better C.

We might have to use the 36th pick in the Jason Collins trade or to buy the 15th pick from Phoenix. Either of those is fine with me.

This is what we have as far as young players to grow for the next 10 years:

Koponen/Rodriguez
Roy/Fernandez
Webster/Outlaw
Aldridge/Frye
Oden/?

We haven't seen anything from Koponen, and not much more from Rodriguez, but at least we have young players at that position to evaluate and possibly keep in our rotation for the next 10 years or so. Freeland doesn't seem to be a true C, especially not the defender/rebounder/shot blocker that I want there, and I haven't heard anything from Sinanovic in a while. We mostly talk about drafting a PG, but I see C as our biggest need for another young player still. Jason Collins is a good defender, but he's getting old and is a nice fix for one year, not 10.

If we could also trade LaFrentz for a veteran 3rd string SG also with an expiring contract or LaFrentz, Blake and possibly draft picks for a veteran SG with an expiring contract and an upgrade over Blake at PG that either has an expiring contract or is worth spending our cap space on, that would be best of all.

2009 will bring lots of cap space to get the last piece for our up and coming young team.


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## chris_in_pdx (Jul 11, 2004)

> 2008/09 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS ROSTER
> PG- Kirk Hinrich/Steve Blake/Russell Westbrook
> SG- Brandon Roy/Rudy Fernandez
> SF- Martell Webster/James Jones/Renaldo Balkman
> ...


Replace Hinrich with Calderon and I think you've got a roster that goes on a Bulls Dynasty-type tear for a decade.


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## ThatBlazerGuy (May 1, 2003)

> Doesnt pass the smell test. If we're talking about hinrich as the pgotf, I think Outlaw is too much to give up. Besides, why give up outlaw for Hinrich when Toronto would probably deal calderon if we packaged TO correctly? Let's not undervalue a guy like travis: he's a ridiculously young combo forward with crazy athleticism and an already developed J. Best of all he seems impervious to the difference between a regular play and a play in the last 1.5 min.


Outlaw is almost legendarily overrated here. First off, you will find about 3 Toronto fans who value Caldy as much as TO. As good a GM as Toronto has, they wont deal Jose for another SF who would, likely, be a slight upgrade over their platoon of swingmen. I might be nuts, but I value #13(Which could likley be used to snab Westbrook if we trade up w/ 2nd's/future 1st b/c I think he really shows his 'rawness' in workouts) more than TO. 




> Lose Miles. (Done!)
> Trade the 55th pick and either 33rd or 36th for 31st pick.
> Use 31st on a European who would have been a first round pick if not for contract issues.
> Leave them overseas.
> ...


I am really not trying to be a douche, but do we really want to rely on Petteri/Sergio for our future PG? One seems like a atrocious fit next to Roy, the other is as completley umproven. Also, there is about as good a chance that GW Bush streaks around the White House on fire as there is that PHX deals #15 for cash. Also also, I cant see Webster or Frye signing extensions for cheap when they know they can only get a bigger contract next season(Probably not Fyre in some circumstances, but certainly Webster). 





> Replace Hinrich with Calderon and I think you've got a roster that goes on a Bulls Dynasty-type tear for a decade.


I still dont understand the Jose infatuation. Now, I know Kirk wont shut down Paul or Parker, but Jose is an absolutley aweful defender. We dont need a Nash next to Roy, we need a 'Fisher'. I have watched Calderon many times, but he sucks without the ball in his hands and I want Roy to initiate the offense at least 50% of the time. He is just too good to give Calderon the ball in a half court set, which is what is going to be our bread-and-butter with two amazing bigs.


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## NateBishop3 (Jul 22, 2003)

The biggest problem is that you're doing a 3way trade. 3ways are extremely rare. You're better off figuring out a way to do each trade separately.


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## World B. Free (Mar 28, 2008)

Wow... you have way too much time to waste. That is sad. I would rather spend my time doing something else then writing a pointless essay on a forum.


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## alext42083 (Nov 7, 2003)

Don't know why the hostility in this thread.. must've taken a long time to figure that plan out so give ThatBlazerGuy some credit here. I don't think it's that bad either, and I'd be happy getting Westbrook here. The Euros... I have never seen or heard of in my life, so I can't comment on any of those players.

I'm not crazy about Hinrich, but he is an upgrade over what we've got. I just don't think he's the PG that KP is targeting especially when giving up key pieces in Jack, Travis and Raef's contract.
It was a good read though.


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## Samuel (Jan 1, 2003)

ThatBlazerGuy said:


> Outlaw is almost legendarily overrated here. First off, you will find about 3 Toronto fans who value Caldy as much as TO.


Are we talking about whether or not Toronto fans would approve of a Calderon/Outlaw swap, or whether Bryan Colangelo would?

Look, I know how overrated Outlaw is around here. But I don't think that means we need to settle for a guy like Hinrich because of it. 

It's easy to forget how young Travis is. If you look at the trade value of young players who scored 1000 points this year, you'd be looking at some of the most highly touted trade prospects in the league.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=mTDLg



> As good a GM as Toronto has, they wont deal Jose for another SF who would, likely, be a slight upgrade over their platoon of swingmen.


He's much more than a 'slight upgrade.' It's becoming clear with Toronto that the need someone else besides Bosh and a collection of jumpshooters. And maybe Bargnani does pan out. But if Travis were in their system they wouldn't exactly displace each other. He'd fit right into their system and probably flourish. 



> I might be nuts, but I value #13(Which could likley be used to snab Westbrook if we trade up w/ 2nd's/future 1st b/c I think he really shows his 'rawness' in workouts) more than TO.


Again, why. I have the sneaking suspicion that if Travis' halfseason productions were flipflopped and he ended the season on the tear that he had earlier on, people would be crying afoul at the earliest mention of a trade.

My opinion: Keep Travis unless you're getting something really special in return.


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## Zybot (Jul 22, 2004)

My absolutely realistic, short offseason plan:

Do whatever KP says.


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## wizmentor (Nov 10, 2005)

ThatBlazerGuy said:


> PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS OFFSEASON 2008
> 
> snip
> 
> ...


If you're going after a top tier PG,
1) why draft Westbrookas a 3rd-stringer? BPA? Why not trade the pick?
2) Is Heinrich it?


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## Utherhimo (Feb 20, 2005)

no to kirk 

KP has a plan what? we dont know.


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## World B. Free (Mar 28, 2008)

alext42083 said:


> Don't know why the hostility in this thread.. must've taken a long time to figure that plan out so give ThatBlazerGuy some credit here.


Why give someone credit for nothing?! lol

Just cause it took him so long to write a 100 page essay on an internet forum, doesn't mean he gets credit!!!


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## Masbee (Dec 31, 2002)

World B. Free said:


> Wow... you have way too much time to waste. That is sad. I would rather spend my time doing something else then writing a pointless essay on a forum.


Wow... you have way too much time to waste. That is sad. I would rather spend my time doing something else then writing a pointless AND INSULTING AND RUDE POST on a forum.

If you have nothing constructive or useful to add, then STFU!


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

Masbee said:


> Wow... you have way too much time to waste. That is sad. I would rather spend my time doing something else then writing a pointless AND INSULTING AND RUDE POST on a forum.
> 
> If you have nothing constructive or useful to add, then STFU!


completely agree. Most of us tune in to read think and talk about hoops so true efforts to do so are much appreciated whether I agree with them or not. If I don't have time to read someone's thoughts, the last thing I'm going to do is lambast them for their contribution to our board

a boo minus for *World B.*

STOMP


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## World B. Free (Mar 28, 2008)

This is a discussion forum, not a blog. If you want to write 800 page essays, use a blog.


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

World B. Free said:


> This is a discussion forum, not a blog. If you want to write 800 page essays, use a blog.


the board is what it is and has been for years. Feel free to explore other options if it's not to your liking. 

STOMP


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## Utherhimo (Feb 20, 2005)

Calidron and the draft seem to be on KP's list of things to do.

Nathan Jawai has moved back up to the late 1st/ early 2nd there is a new video youtube check him out, he is worth getting and he could stay over there or move on to europe.


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## ProZach (Oct 13, 2005)

gambitnut said:


> Here's mine ...
> 
> Trade Przybilla and Jack for Jason Collins and a draft pick.


Oof.. You lost me there.


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## silverpaw1786 (Mar 11, 2004)

Samuel said:


> Doesnt pass the smell test. If we're talking about hinrich as the pgotf, I think Outlaw is too much to give up. Besides, why give up outlaw for Hinrich when Toronto would probably deal calderon if we packaged TO correctly? Let's not undervalue a guy like travis: he's a ridiculously young combo forward with crazy athleticism and an already developed J. Best of all he seems impervious to the difference between a regular play and a play in the last 1.5 min.
> 
> chi: why sell low on a stock for a suddenly mediocre stock with problems..... NECK problems. Why bother?
> 
> ...


Outlaw is TOO MUCH to give up???????? I strongly disagree. Outlaw is a ballhog with insane athleticism and a mediocre jumper. They're a dime a dozen in this league and usually come without the ballhog tag.


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## silverpaw1786 (Mar 11, 2004)

Calderon is beloved by Toronto fans, no way the front office wants to alienate some of the most devoted fans in the league. Combine that with his insane assist/to ratio and he is untouchable for the blazers short of Roy, Oden, or LMA being included in the deal, which I know none of you want.


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

silverpaw1786 said:


> Outlaw is a ballhog with insane athleticism and a *mediocre* jumper. They're a dime a dozen in this league and usually come without the ballhog tag.


Hmm....

Outlaw shoots 0.433 FG and 0.396 from the 3. 

Martel Webster - who is considered a shooter is not as good at 0.422 and 0.373.

The place where TO struggles with shooting is the FT, actually - but he is definitely not a mediocre jump shooter - he is probably an above average one.

So, having an above average shooter that can create his own shot at will, with insane athletic abilities and is a good locker room guy and does not mind coming off the bench, while being paid a fair amount is a plus!


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## silverpaw1786 (Mar 11, 2004)

43% is not a good shooter. And if by create his own shot at will, you mean shoot whether he's covered or not, then I agree.


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## MrJayremmie (Dec 29, 2007)

> Calderon is beloved by Toronto fans, no way the front office wants to alienate some of the most devoted fans in the league. Combine that with his insane assist/to ratio and he is untouchable for the blazers short of Roy, Oden, or LMA being included in the deal, which I know none of you want.


this is what i think also. Obtaining this kid would be too hard. I think we'd have to give up a lot to the point where it would make us a worse team, as we'd probably have to do outlaw, Rudy, Jack and Pryz and our 1st and take Calderon and some contracts.


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## BlazerFan22 (Jul 4, 2006)

gambitnut said:


> Here's mine ...
> 
> Lose Miles. (Done!)
> Trade the 55th pick and either 33rd or 36th for 31st pick.
> ...


That sounds like a huge gamble. Koponen we haven't seen and Rodriguez hasen't proven anything and you want them to be your only point gaurds? Not to mention I see alot of people have changed there minds on keeping Frye now. At the end of the season people wanted him gone what happend?eace:


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

BlazerFan22 said:


> That sounds like a huge gamble. Koponen we haven't seen and Rodriguez hasen't proven anything and you want them to be your only point gaurds?


I'd imagine he's projecting that Roy will continue to play some PG for Portland especially if Rudy is a legit SG.

STOMP


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

silverpaw1786 said:


> 43% is not a good shooter. And if by create his own shot at will, you mean shoot whether he's covered or not, then I agree.


43% is right around the league average and his 3P% is higher than the league average (which hovers around 35%) - when you consider that Outlaw is not a spot-up shooter but has to create his shot for himself - this number is far from mediocre as you claim.

It is hard to find players that can create their own shot, take it at a reasonable rate and have a reasonable contract and growth potential. 

If it was up to me - Travis would only be moved for one hell of an option - and Captain Kirk - who shot worse than Outlaw (FG and 3P), had a lower PER and costs more than twice per year is not a good return for Outlaw. Yup, Outlaw is too much to give for Captain Kirk.


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## Jayps15 (Jul 21, 2007)

Outlaw's jumper is mediocre for a mid range shot and he takes way to many of them. According to NBA hotspots he took a combined 653 mid range J's out of his 964 total FG attempts and only shot 40.7 percent on those shots. Mid range J's can be useful if used sparingly to keep a defense honest, but unless your hitting them closer to 45% they shouldn't be your main weapon. There's a reason Outlaw had the worst EFG% and TS% of any blazer that played more than 10 minutes per game.


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## gambitnut (Jan 4, 2003)

BlazerFan22 said:


> That sounds like a huge gamble. Koponen we haven't seen and Rodriguez hasen't proven anything and you want them to be your only point gaurds? Not to mention I see alot of people have changed there minds on keeping Frye now. At the end of the season people wanted him gone what happend?eace:


Unless combining him with LaFrentz's contract gets us a good upgrade at PG, I plan on keeping Blake next season. My plan would just mean that Rodriguez and Koponen would fight for Jack's minutes at PG and Fernandez would take Jack and Wafer's minutes at SG. I don't see that being a huge gamble.


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## ebott (Jan 7, 2003)

I love it. Good job ThatBlazerGuy. In my mind that's the perfect off-season for us. 

Sign Rudy
Get Westbrook
Trade LaFrentz, Outlaw and Jack for a veteran point guard
Deal Sergio and change for a defensive swing man.

Brilliant!!!!!!!!!!

But I just don't think Westbrook will be there at 13. He's slipping in the mock drafts for no reason right now, but when workouts start I expect he'll shoot back up into the 7-10 range.

I do agree with some that your Hinrich deal just doesn't work. I don't think New Jersey (they don't get enough back for Jefferson) or Chicago (Ford's just too big of a risk to be sending out a player as good as Hinrich) would do it. But I do think it's possible that we could offer up LaFrentz, Outlaw and Jack and some how end up with Hinrich.


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## Zybot (Jul 22, 2004)

I don't like the idea of making these big of moves this offseason. Why not wait until next year or at least the trading deadline, when we will have a season of Oden to see who meshes well and who is better to trade. I think if you are hoping for a big offseason, you will be disappointed this summer. But I have been wrong before (at least once that I can remember). :biggrin:


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## silverpaw1786 (Mar 11, 2004)

Damn Jay, took the words right out of my mouth.


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## STOMP (Jan 1, 2003)

andalusian said:


> Hmm....
> 
> Outlaw shoots 0.433 FG and 0.396 from the 3.
> 
> ...


he was better at that then Martell as well... 0.741 to 0.735


> but he is definitely not a mediocre jump shooter - he is probably an above average one.
> 
> So, having an above average shooter *that can create his own shot at will*, with insane athletic abilities and is a good locker room guy and does not mind coming off the bench, while being paid a fair amount is a plus!


lifting a quote of John Calipari from the Lester Hudson thread... _"He can get his own shot ... and that's a big, big value in the NBA."_

TO and Roy are the two end of the shot clock/go to guys on the club. It would be great if some others showed the ability to get the necessary separation with the defense closing out, but unfortunately... 

hopefully Rudy will prove to have this ability too

STOMP


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## GOD (Jun 22, 2003)

TS% and eFG% are poor stats to use when evaluating players because they are strongly skewed towards two types of players. 

Type 1 is inside players like Oden next year or Joel this year. Joel had the second highest TS% and highest eFG (excluding McBob) on the Blazers this year because all his shots are from 2 feet or less. But that certainly does not show that he is a good offensive player, does it?

Type 2 are outside shooters who take lots of threes and rarely create their own shots. For example, the leading TS% was Jones this year and he was 2nd eFG% (excluding McBob), but he was not nearly our best offensive weapon. Sure, he nailed a lot of 3pters, but that was about all he could do to score. 

I would consider Roy and Aldridge to both be better offensive players than Joel and Jones, wouldn't you? 

In truth, there are no all inclusive stats that show a players worth, especially as an offensive player or a defensive player. PER is a pretty good tool in evaluating overall worth of a player, but I think that Per undervalues defense a tad. 

So no matter who you prefer, Outlaw or Webster, using TS% or eFG% is not very useful in arguing your point, because they play the game so differently. We don't know if Outlaw could keep his percentages up if he were asked to concentrate on being a long range bomber, and we don't know if Webster could create his own shot if Nate asked him to concentrate on that. But, just by watching them play, looking at the raw stats, and having a feel for the game, I think it is more likely that at this point in time, Outlaw would better be able to do what Webster does than visa versa. But of course, Web has not been in the league as long and is younger than Travis. 

Personally, I like Outlaw more than Webster for the Blazers because I think his skills better match what the Blazers need. Between, Jones, Blake and even Outlaw, Frye and Roy (and Rudy next year) I think we will have the players to spread the floor and nail some threes. But what we need are more players who can iso and create for themselves when the clock is winding down. I also like that Outlaw seems to be a late game player, whereas Web tends to disappear more often in crunch. 

One player being good, does not make the other player bad. Both are young and improving and I would be happy to have those two continue to cover the SF spot next year. But, if one of them is needed to get an upgrade at PG, I hope it's Webster and not Outlaw.


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## Jayps15 (Jul 21, 2007)

Well my post had nothing to do with comparing Outlaw to Webster, just refuting someones claim that Outlaw has a better than average jumper.

As for EFG%,TS%, and PER, TS% is one of the factors used in determining a players PER, so how does calling TS% a poor stat and then going on to rely on something calculated using it work? Why not use other overall performance stats like Win Shares?

As I said in my earlier post mid range shots shouldn't be your go to option unless your able to hit them at a higher clip, they're worth less than 3s with only a slightly better chance at success with most players and they don't draw fouls or have anywhere near the success rate of driving. If Outlaw took all the same shots but was able to shot mid range shots at 45% instead of the 40.7 he did shoot his TS% would jump up to 53%, putting him right next to Roy and above Aldridge. That would be great given how much he created his shot, but he didn't shot that well, hence my contention that he isn't an above average shooter. 

He's an average shooter asked to do too much and his offensive efficiency is low because of it, and he should take less of a scoring load so that his play isn't so detrimental to the team.


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## GOD (Jun 22, 2003)

Jayps15 said:


> Well my post had nothing to do with comparing Outlaw to Webster, just refuting someones claim that Outlaw has a better than average jumper.


Sorry, I jumped the gun. 



> As for EFG%,TS%, and PER, TS% is one of the factors used in determining a players PER, so how does calling TS% a poor stat and then going on to rely on something calculated using it work? Why not use other overall performance stats like Win Shares?


As far as PER and TS go, I said that PER also has flaws, just that it is a little better indicator. I tried to indicate that all these stats need to be taken in context, what role the player was in, what load he was asked to carry, who he played with and so on. I think the best way to evaluate a player is to look at these stats as well as raw stats, and then use those to see if certain trends pop out. Then combine that with what your eyes told you to try and come up with your opinion. As far as Win Shares, I have never really paid attention to them so I can''t say anything about it. 



> As I said in my earlier post mid range shots shouldn't be your go to option unless your able to hit them at a higher clip, they're worth less than 3s with only a slightly better chance at success with most players and they don't draw fouls or have anywhere near the success rate of driving. If Outlaw took all the same shots but was able to shot mid range shots at 45% instead of the 40.7 he did shoot his TS% would jump up to 53%, putting him right next to Roy and above Aldridge. That would be great given how much he created his shot, but he didn't shot that well, hence my contention that he isn't an above average shooter.
> 
> He's an average shooter asked to do too much and his offensive efficiency is low because of it, and he should take less of a scoring load so that his play isn't so detrimental to the team.


I think that Outlaw had to take a lot of mid range shots to space the floor for all the other players. He is still young and inconsistent and I agree that it would be nice if he could raise his midrange to 45%ish. But with Webster, Blake and Webster basically only taking outside shots, I think Nate wanted Outlaw to shoot some midrange so the defense couldn't get used to playing up on our wings.


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## andalusian (Jun 29, 2006)

Well, I never said he had an above average jumper - I said he was about average in his FG% in the league and above average in 3P% - which does not make him mediocre...

I also said that with Captain Kirk being worse than Outlaw in PER and FG% and 3P% - while making more than twice the money - giving Outlaw for Kirk was too much - and all this talk about Outlaw being above average or not or mediocre or not makes no difference when discussing an Outlaw for Kirk deal... I still think that giving Outlaw for Kirk is too much.


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## Jayps15 (Jul 21, 2007)

andalusian said:


> Well, I never said he had an above average jumper - I said he was about average in his FG% in the league and above average in 3P% - which does not make him mediocre...
> 
> I also said that with Captain Kirk being worse than Outlaw in PER and FG% and 3P% - while making more than twice the money - giving Outlaw for Kirk was too much - and all this talk about Outlaw being above average or not or mediocre or not makes no difference when discussing an Outlaw for Kirk deal... I still think that giving Outlaw for Kirk is too much.


I think any Outlaw for Kirk trade is predicated on the idea that Kirk would 'bounce back' from what's probably been his worst season as a pro last year, while Outlaw's value is perceived as being higher than ever and likely due for a fall after by far his best season when the team gets better next year. I wouldn't do the trade either, but I wouldn't base my evaluation of either player solely on this year alone.


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## GOD (Jun 22, 2003)

Jayps15 said:


> I think any Outlaw for Kirk trade is predicated on the idea that Kirk would 'bounce back' from what's probably been his worst season as a pro last year, while Outlaw's value is perceived as being higher than ever and* likely due for a fall after by far his best season when the team gets better next year.* I wouldn't do the trade either, but I wouldn't base my evaluation of either player solely on this year alone.


Kirk may or may not bounce back to his previous value, but I disagree with the portion I bolded. Whereas Kirk is 27, Outlaw is still only 23 years old and should continue to improve for a few more years. As he improves, his value should only rise. I understand that there is a chance that his court time goes down next year, but I doubt that his value is harmed too much unless his time gets absolutely crushed, which I don't think will happen. Honestly, I think that the people who will feel the time crunch, if they are not traded, are Jack, Jones and perhaps Joel. Jack because he will be pinched out with the addition of Rudy, they play the same position and lets face it, Jack has a ton of flaws. Jones because his contract will be over soon enough and the Blazers will be more interested in investing in Outlaw, Webster and Rudy. And Joel because of Oden.


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## Jayps15 (Jul 21, 2007)

GOD said:


> Kirk may or may not bounce back to his previous value, but I disagree with the portion I bolded. Whereas Kirk is 27, Outlaw is still only 23 years old and should continue to improve for a few more years. As he improves, his value should only rise. I understand that there is a chance that his court time goes down next year, but I doubt that his value is harmed too much unless his time gets absolutely crushed, which I don't think will happen. Honestly, I think that the people who will feel the time crunch, if they are not traded, are Jack, Jones and perhaps Joel. Jack because he will be pinched out with the addition of Rudy, they play the same position and lets face it, Jack has a ton of flaws. Jones because his contract will be over soon enough and the Blazers will be more interested in investing in Outlaw, Webster and Rudy. And Joel because of Oden.


Outlaw's PPG, and to many his scoring is his biggest asset, came mostly off increased shots this year and I just don't see him getting the same number of attempts next season. The team took 79.8 FGA per game this year and Outlaw was 3rd on the team in attempts per game at 11.7 per. I think his attempts will drop next year with Oden and Rudy coming into the rotation, another year of development for Aldridge as a scorer (he started the year taking about 14FGA per game and increased that to 17FGA per game in March and April), possibly adding either a veteran PG/SF or the #13 pick .I can easily see him dropping to 4th or maybe 5th on the team in attempts and maybe as low as 5th or 6th in overall PPG, and I doubt our pace is so much faster next year as to offset that and get him his 11.7 attempts per game.


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## gambitnut (Jan 4, 2003)

ThatBlazerGuy said:


> I am really not trying to be a douche, but do we really want to rely on Petteri/Sergio for our future PG? One seems like a atrocious fit next to Roy, the other is as completley umproven.


As I said, I don't know that those are our PGs of the future, but we should give them a chance and evaluate them this season. If we don't think they are our future, we can find somebody new next year, either with our cap space or our first round draft pick. Get the young backup C we know we don't have instead of the young PG we might have, then worry about possibly getting another young PG later.



ThatBlazerGuy said:


> Also, there is about as good a chance that GW Bush streaks around the White House on fire as there is that PHX deals #15 for cash.


I hope there is a greater chance of us getting the 15th pick. I can handle not getting the pick, but I don't need to see GW Bush streaking. I agree that Phoenix should keep the pick, but you never know how far their owner will go to save money. I did offer some alternate ways to get at least most of my plan done. The C is the main thing I want from the draft, if we can get one or two of the top Europeans to stash overseas for a year or two, great, if not, oh well.



ThatBlazerGuy said:


> Also also, I cant see Webster or Frye signing extensions for cheap when they know they can only get a bigger contract next season(Probably not Fyre in some circumstances, but certainly Webster).


I'm pretty sure we can start their extensions at 6 million or so and still have a good amount of cap space, how much more do you think either of them could expect to get next year?


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